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Post by sd on Dec 17, 2020 17:50:32 GMT -5
As long as these positions are appropriately sized, I think you will find them rewarding-Good to have a co-investor
I'm not chasing any bitcoin - specific presently- will look to the ARK exposure primarily.
And you may prefer to view them eventually through the prism of the weekly charts vs the daily-
Ideally they will perform well for you.
In the ARK funds, my recent repositioning :
ARKG 50 + 116 = 166 15K+
ARKQ 1 + 101 =102 7k+
ARKF 201 10k+
ARKK 40 + 91 16K
ARKW 25 + 56 = 81 12k
PRNT 105 3K
I whole heartedly agree- If these were individual stocks , the Risk would be large-
Across my self-managed accts-, these Ark Funds represent 27% of my account. I have some free cash, so I will be adding to the ARKQ and PRNT- All are trending and significantly outperforming the "Market" - and, I will be rolling over some additional IRA assets into the Van account.
The PERF chart of the past 30 days shows the "Market" with a net 6% rise- with ARKF being the slowest performer of the ARK funds- and doubling the return of the market.
i.imgur.com/9uQmI4m.png
ARKW was this years best performer-Notice the others though...
www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/best-performing-tech-etfs
I think it also works for my momentum investment theme to consider other types of funds that have outperformed in 2019, 2020-
So I've also got some exposure to ICLN, GRID, Tan, FIW,- as I wanted to allocate some into infrastructure themes with a portion-
Although TAN has stopped out for net losses several times on me, the remainder have been winning positions.
i.imgur.com/uhqe7Ix.png
I also had recently put more $$$ into the markets, but thought I would differentiate with selecting some dividend focused ETFs-which generally have some "rules" - and without doing much research in the merits- I felt that would give wide exposure to other than Tech- and likely includes some staid "Value" stocks in most of them- including decades long dividend outperformers.
I will get stopped out on these as well if they break trend - and will narrow the field some eventually.
Each of these is outperforming SPY over the recent 30 days - but that is not always the case-
i.imgur.com/E24c501.png
I also am putting some small individual stock positions on- to see if I can grasp one that really sizzles-
Snap, DKNG, FCX,CRSP,AAPL,DIS, CLNE etc and a few very small roll of the dice plays-SPCE stopped out and then declined further.
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Post by sd on Dec 17, 2020 18:34:09 GMT -5
Markets all closed higher-
Accounts pushing new highs- almost 98% in presently-
Days with upside momentum across the markets floats almost all boats-
The ARK funds were highly represented in the top performers today- with 18 positions up over 1%
Not all were at new highs though - but the positive action gives expectations for directional momentum to the upside.
i.imgur.com/xmqg9uE.png
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Post by sd on Dec 18, 2020 9:49:48 GMT -5
Bought 100 SPAK @ open
The SPAC (special purpose acquisition company) space is bringing a lot of companies forward to market and bypassing the traditional IPO process. Consider this as a very early and speculative space- similar perhaps to what Bitcoin-was when it started- as something new and innovative- may crash and burn, or may become extremely popular for bringing companies forward. Up 30% from the Nov 1 low -
www.etf.com/sections/daily-etf-watch/first-spac-related-etf-unveiled?nopaging=1
This is a very early and unproven ETF model- could be very shortlived- I'm viewing the present uptrend as potentially still going higher.
I'll use this chart as a "sample" ideal illustration of a downtrend- price is below the declining moving average, a reversal move higher that closes above the declining moving average, above the declining psar -orange dots- and then moves higher.
Following it's initial opening in October, this lost value for 1 month, and then turned higher starting in Nov. The initial upmove from 22 to 25+ pulled back and penetrated the 10 ema. This becomes the 1st Swing Low in the possible new uptrend. tHE penetration of the 10 ema BELOW $24 - Price then moves higher and exceeds the Nov 9 high for a new leg higher thru Nov 30 high $27.50, from where price makes a couple of lower closes- again penetrating the 10 ema . The 2nd bar in Dec made an intraday low approx $25.90- just above the 21 ema.
Price then moves back higher, Dec 5 green bar close to the Dec 30 high (resistance) then has a gap move higher Dec 7 , for a new leg -stair step higher, pulls back a bit and 'tests' the gap by having price declining slightly with a weak Close under the 10 ema Dec 15.
Price then goes higher for the following 2 days, but will need to exceed the Dec 9 high to see another leg higher-.
The criteria that supports an entry here:
Price is in an uptrend- Moving averages are sloping towards the upper right corner of the page - (Upwards Momentum)
Price is above a defined Swing Low in the uptrend.
Options for setting a stop-loss :
The 1st stop-loss consideration could be the Low of the most recent Swing Low.
ALTERNATIVE STOPS -
the 21 ema is below the swing low $27.25
the psar is presently below the 21 ema $$27.08 (Thursday chart)
updating this with a chart example;
i.imgur.com/H7GcOdb.png
Following my SPAK entry this 12-18- initial green bar higher suggests the momentum is still to the upside.
i.imgur.com/0gyIVXK.png
Bought CIBR yesterday as the news of the security cyber breach across the gov't become known
i.imgur.com/rBjwTTz.png
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Post by sd on Dec 18, 2020 11:25:33 GMT -5
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Post by sd on Dec 18, 2020 17:28:36 GMT -5
I see JPST adds coming across the CNBC channel as an "Ultra Short income- and thought I would check it out by viewing a longer time frame chart- and since I'm an advocate of using stop-losses below my positions- I was surprised to see the Weekly chart showing this huge drop and recovery in March 2020. I'll take a closer look- but this appears to be a "Flash Crash" - an aberration in no buy orders being offered as an equity declines. Since this offering is based on fixed income- you do not expect wide volatility moves.
i.imgur.com/p0mceh8.png
The close up hourly view- If one had a STOP price along with a lower LIMIT- one's position could not be sold at the ridiculously low open price- but only at the limit price.
i.imgur.com/qNYNkAZ.png
Of Course- Not having a Stop-Loss looks something like this act of Faith:
i.imgur.com/sx4tOky.png
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Post by sd on Dec 20, 2020 20:14:05 GMT -5
12-20
A new strain of the virus- more contagious- in Britain.Stay at home orders being issued.
Evening news release- "Gov't has Come to a Deal". Let's see how the markets react-Hopefully, the "deal" meets expectations- offsetting the negative virus and employment news. However, a paltry $600 check
As I reread "The Layman's Guide to Trading Stocks" by Dave Landry this weekend, I recognize several significant differences in his approach then, and mine now- The book was 1st published in 2010- so it is somewhat dated, but it gives excellent examples of basic chart entries, position sizing principles, and touches upon
I take an earlier entry- he waits for an uptrend to have a pullback and enters once the uptrend continues on - His TKO .
He takes an early partial profit- about the distance to his stop- and then lets the remainder run- with the stop raised to Break even.
He sets a wider stop under the pullback low , and gradually widens his stop -seeking to achieve a long term substantial gain- and -yes-willing to give up a substantial amount of the potential profits to achieve that more substantial long term result.
I think that being willing to widen stops would have yielded even much better net results for me in 2020- and not getting shook out on what turned out to be minor pullbacks-and then chasing a reentry higher... That recognized- The price gains from the lows in March are now so substantial, that we are truly in inflated territory in those market leaders. I don't know when- but I would expect we see a market correction in 2021- simply on the enthusiasm and sentiment to be long stocks is so widely embraced. And Bonds don't yield any return- so equities are the only recourse- and the FED has declared it's support-
Go Long RISK-is the present theme- Wow- we have come so far from the March lows!
This Monday am- Market futures are WAY down on the new Corona Virus strains premarket Down -447 Nas -150, S&p-70
I cannot watch the open today, but it will be a gap down open- What can happen? Price has a gap down open, drops a bit, and then gets a bit of a recovery-Some of My stops will likely be executed at the low open-Price then absorbs the news and closes the day higher than the open. Presently I pulled the stops off on the recent ARK reentries- This time around, I will consider reducing position size in each- not selling all- of the position- As noted previously- markets are extended, and if this pullback today is the start of something larger- Locking in gains will be the goal of money managers- selling big winners. Before I make any decisions on the Ark funds, I will see what conditions are when I return about midday.
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Post by sd on Dec 21, 2020 13:55:17 GMT -5
NICE reversal- Gains!
Very pleasantly surprised to see the end result when I got home yesterday evening- ARK funds all were higher, ARKG up over 6% on the DAy, AARK up 3%, CRSP broke out of the base- +12% A holding in ARKG, and I also have a small position. stp was $139- will leave it there for the meantime.
but I did have a few other positions stop out-several of the dividend ETFs stopped out WDIV has been on a sharp upswing, almost vertical, and so unsustainable- so I had tightened a stop- but it had a gap down lower open yesterday- so my stop $61.00 stop was filled at the low open.
TKO LANDRY
i.imgur.com/19hfkKs.png
A missed opportunity on taking profits. I had bought QS stock (solid state battery maker) - on it's initial move up- @ $25.90 OR SO
Sold 1/3 on the jump higher- partial profit taking , and then set 2 stops -one wider than the other-and both were hit after price had another day higher, and then pulled back, taking out both steps - locking in my gains- and I never tried to get back into the stock once that happened-and that was a missed opportunity for a much larger gain.
I reread Landry's "The Layman's Guide to Trading Stocks-" and the entry he emphasizes most for the novice trader is an entry on a price move higher after a pullback in an uptrend- Landry suggests waiting for a pullback in an uptrending stock -in an uptrending market- enter on the 1st bar that Closes higher than the pullback bars- set stop under the pullback- Sell 1/2 the position on an upmove
that is equal to the downside of the stop - Move the stop up to break even if price trends higher- and gradually trail the stop -progressively wider -QS would be a textbook TKO entry.
Added 87 shares to the SPAK position-with the free cash -Along with the market momentum- theme is market's momentum for IPO, SPAK
and other thematic plays- Clean energy- ICLN- making a gap away new high today
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Post by sd on Dec 23, 2020 10:26:53 GMT -5
Market momentum to the upside 12-23 -
Futures up- CLNE was up over $10 before the open- so it's a double in a few weeks. As it had a nice gap open, and then a bit of a pullback to the $9 level, I'll set a stop -loss just under that opening bar low for 100 shares (holding 390)
i.imgur.com/1KqTBbJ.png
Potentially a lot of the once oversold energy sector has seen very large moves higher. I've added some small positions in individual stocks- recently- MP- a rare earth mining company-
Losing position- I put $300 down on a 100 share spec SIOX that had started to break up on momentum - that fizzled and has since pulled back- support is $2.40 level- I don't generally mess with penny stocks, and this was simply a gamble- I don't think there was even any market "News" as a catalyst for the move-
The SPAK model is trending well- ETF on what may be the new form of bringing companies to market vs the traditional IPO process. I've a 2% position -adding 100 shares on the breakout today.=287
CNBC is pointing out that the Russell is at the most extended move ever in history beyond the slower 200 day moving average-
This is also reflected in other fast moving stocks -and ETFs- the momentum move will eventually have a snap back " reversion to the mean"
It ALWAYS Happens- and that snap back can over shoot to the downside- The question is WHEN?
Curiously, some of my Dividend paying ETFs are getting stopped out-
Buying 50 shares of XL limit $25- trading is present halted in this new IPO. Electric market -promoted by Cramer as a good value -spec small position
RIDE - 50 on the move higher
i.imgur.com/ch5ZnOg.png
i.imgur.com/1iQ9Cpy.png
Added back- 50 SPCE here at the Close
Added to ARKQ, PRNT positions.Both moving higher, while ARKK, ARKG, ARKW Flat.
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Post by sd on Dec 23, 2020 17:01:50 GMT -5
TRADE RECAP
GUNR- "GLOBAL UPSTREAM NATURAL RESOURCES"- Purchased as part of diversifying my portfolio, but I also applied a trailing stop-loss approach - using various psar signals- 1st entry 11-05 was before the breakout- where price was testing the recent level from where it had declined- The breakout occurred, gap higher- and there I added to the position. Had another gap move higher , slight pullback red bar, and If I had used the 0.02 blue psar, I would have been stopped out on what was a minor pullback. Price continued higher- then based sideways for 2 weeks, all 3 psar values converged- but I applied a stop below the red bar 12-14 and did not try to squeeze every nickel out of this trade. Stop was hit on a gap down drop away from an attempt to breakout higher 2 days earlier.
Price based at that level, and today tried to move up higher- $32.43
Will there be additional buying demand ? If so- a Buy-Stop entry $32.60- above today's high price $32.56 may be worth considering.
Stoch-RSI barely upturning., MACD histogram still primarily negative.
This is not designed to be a big mover % wise- but ballast in the Port.
i.imgur.com/0DXluoK.png
Today's performance was muted- still more in the Green than those in the Red-
i.imgur.com/DUmZaFy.png
SPCE ended up +5% higher today than yesterday. Possibly we are losing momentum going into the subdued Christmas holiday-
We had limited- "masks up" contact with our daughters & granddaughters- Will be doing the ZOOM meet up Christmas day.
Watched an Analyst from BAC comparing the TSLA entry into the S&P to the AOL entry into the index back in 1999-- signifying the peak of Growth at Any Price for the Tech sector-
Similarly, TSLA will take years to "Earn" it's PE multiple- but it's not alone in receiving that very high valuation....
Yes, there are a lot of similarities to the tech bubble of 2000. I painfully gave up all of my profits and then some not understanding that momentum can reverse- hard and fast.
Our experiences ultimately factor into our trading/investing psychology. Big winning runs can lull one into thinking this time is different- for some reason- When the majority sentiments are all willing to be long- we are reaching a top - I had to remind myself of this despite seeing added $$$ in account values racking up.
The reality check is to calculate what the downside is if my stops were all to execute- and I need to add stops back below the Ark positions-
SA article - Schiller PE- future returns the next decade to be reduced-
seekingalpha.com/article/4395727-spy-100-years-of-data-says-buy-hold-will-fail-you?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=spy-100-years-of-data-says-buy-hold-will-fail-you&utm_campaign=nl-etf-daily&utm_content=link-0Portfolio visualizer - Backtesting models
www.portfoliovisualizer.com/test-market-timing-model#analysisResults
White papers by Meb Faber mebfaber.com/white-papers/
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ira85
New Member
Posts: 837
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Post by ira85 on Dec 24, 2020 0:33:24 GMT -5
The link to "American Pie" brings back a lot of nostalgic memories. Of course the "day the music died" was the day Buddy Holly and his band died in a plane crash, February 3, 1959.
At the time, Holly's band consisted of Waylon Jennings, Tommy Allsup, and Carl Bunch. Some other performers had joined the tour Holly was playing. Rising stars Richie Valens, the Big Bopper Richardson, and Dion and the Belmonts had joined the tour. The long journeys between venues on board cold, uncomfortable tour buses adversely affected the performers, with cases of flu and even frostbite.
Frustrated by such conditions, Holly chose to charter a plane to reach their next venue in Moorhead, Minnesota. There was only room for 3 musicians on the small plane. Of course Holly got on the plane. Waylon Jennings gave up his seat on the plane to the Big Bopper who was suffering from flu. Tommy Allsup lost his seat to Valens on a coin toss. Richie Valens joked how it was the first time he had ever won anything on a bet.
Holly and Jennings were ribbing each other waiting for the plane to get ready for boarding. Before takeoff, Holly joked with Jennings and said he hoped the bus broke down. Jennings responded well “I hope your ol’ plane crashes.”
"I was so afraid for many years that somebody was going to find out I said that,” Jennings told CMT in 1999. “Somehow I blamed myself. Compounding that was the guilty feeling that I was still alive. I hadn’t contributed anything to the world at that time compared to Buddy.
"Why would he die and not me? It took a long time to figure that out, and it brought about some big changes in my life — the way I thought about things."
The only reason Buddy Holly went on that tour was because he was broke. Flat broke,” Jennings revealed in 1973. “He didn’t want to go, but he had to make some money. Holly probably didn't know much about money management and stock trading. It might have saved his life and today no one would know who Don McLean was. - ira
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Post by sd on Dec 24, 2020 5:29:19 GMT -5
Never new the Back story! That was interesting indeed! Something to be said for putting away some of those earnings- and profits-
Short market day today-I'll be reviewing-and setting stops- and possibly putting some freed cash to work....we'll see.
Have a Safe and Merry Christmas.
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Post by sd on Dec 24, 2020 5:54:59 GMT -5
SRNE:https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/23/sorrento-therapeutics-antibodies-injection-nose-drops-to-fight-covid.html
Since the news is often a catalyst for price to react- SRNE up 18% yesterday-
Unimpressive non-trending chart-suggests that SRNE is one of those biotech names that is struggling - Will consider this as a low confidence spec trade-100 shares- and will be using a Buy-stop order with a limit - the Buy- $8.95- Limit $9.25
Since SRNE is not trending- I'm not giving this much leeway to succeed. Might get bid up by the momentum players-
Assuming the buy-stop gets filled, it will also be price breaking out above it's recent attempt to Rally higher Dec 9- and if the breakout succeeds, price should not retest - so I'll use the fast 4hr 5 ema as a stop- Risking $1.00
The "Risk" is at a potentially high % level- $1/9.25 =10.8% but the position size is relatively small $925/total portfolio value
is below .5%
i.imgur.com/UzbDYnU.png
GUNR- I'm also using a Buy-Stop with Limit order on GUNR which stopped out according to my tight-trailing psar approach-We had a 2 day decline -4 red bars (4 hr chart) and price tried to rally higher - The assumption is that price dropped below the base, and the move higher will go on to break out of the base and start a new leg of the uptrend- It also provides a new stop-loss to be set below the low of the prior red bars.-$31.80 Notice that PSAR is in the Sell mode- and often psar is right, having to be exceeded-for an entry to work.
This entry is Close to the Point of Failure- as defined by Price going lower than the lows of the prior red bars. That would be a potential greater decline- the trend "rolling over" I'll delay adding the other 100 shares until price meets and exceeds my expectations by exceeding the recent range highs- approx 33.00 price-
The natural resources fund is part of holding some real assets in a portfolio-as long as those assets are appreciating in value- go.flexshares.com/funds/gunr? Potentially these type of assets are alternatives to holding higher momentum sector-Tech, biotech etc. Real assets- commodities, FCX for example- while appreciating nicely here are more along the
i.imgur.com/s3z1uIQ.png |
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Post by sd on Dec 24, 2020 8:24:55 GMT -5
ARKG - NOT certain of the reentry date - Held this through the Dec basing period. With this recent breakout of the range, I am raising the stop to $93.00 - the low of the recent basing period. This will lock in a 27% gain if the stop was filled on this most recent reentry.
i.imgur.com/1VB2Z3X.png
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Post by sd on Dec 26, 2020 12:20:05 GMT -5
12-26-20 Sentiment is high (bullish) for equities- at an extreme level of confidence- which suggests it is time to be prepared for a near term market peak to be near. -But, How long that will take is anyone's guess.
sentimentrader.com/dumb-money/
www.sentimentrader.com/smart-money/
Looking at the Bullish percent indicators-
The broad tech sector has been the leading sector for several years- and this will likely be true -over the long term -going forward-
However, Tech sentiment is at a high, as is the % of Nasdaq stocks trading above the 200 day ema. 76.45% at last week's Close.
See the weekly View; An attempt to swing into "Value sectors " has also come into play recently .
stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$BPCOMPQ
Levels at 70 have been historical tops - and we have-76- greatly exceeded the 10 year prior levels- and many- but not all, prior 70+ high levels are followed by corrections. Comparing the extreme decline in 2008- and the subsequent market rally in early 2009, followed by a pullback, and then on to a new high level- appears very similar to what we have in 2020-Will we continue to see a Jan rally? We have a FED determined to support the markets. We have vaccines starting to be distributed- we have a potential stimulus to be released in the near future- hopefully.
i.imgur.com/QDFA7K4.png
ReReading a book o market timing ,seasonality, and the Presidential Election year- While the Masonson book (All about Market Timing) is a few years old, 2011 ,and it would be good to note that Masonson solidly believes in market timing-
he illustrates some remarkable statistics- from the mid term lows through the election year- cycles, and various approaches that have reduced drawdowns for investors and increasing returns. including the outperformance and reduced Risk of using Price with moving averages- In his research, he found that slow moving average crossovers were substantially improved by a simple faster price closing below an 18 ema as an exit and reentry signal. This also generates many more trades- And substantially outperforms Buy and Hold with Less Risk
He mentions a website that is still active to get additional feedback on the market's status- market timing status.
www.mtrig.com/
Are markets different today? Well, we have computerized trading by algorithms trading in fractional shares -Millions more retail traders have joined the markets in 2020- but trend and momentum continue to be factors, and will into the future- Periods of high volatility are opportunities to capture gains, and reinvest at lower prices.
I ordered "Mastering the Trade" 3rd ed. by John Carter of Simpler trading-I listened to a webinar by him this weekend- and I think his book will be instructive as i continue to try to apply a somewhat systematic TA approach across my accounts.
The net goal is to be as systematic-and disciplined in my approach- as i can- and retaining the majority of my profits...
in the best method I presently know- trailing stops under recent bases- or higher on breakouts.
As I now will have time on my hands, no excuses to not get down to brass tacks and apply myself further in the management of my financial assets.
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Post by sd on Dec 26, 2020 17:33:42 GMT -5
SNAP STOPS OUT 12-24
In the IB- aggressive- trading account -Previously had a substantial gain in SNAP- following the pullback, took a reentry early in the saucer - green bars- higher - held through the 2+ week consolidation that occurred shortly after my entry -PSAR values for stops were wide. Price then trends for 2 weeks higher, and bases again. I allowed my stop to be held below the psar values that closed in on price early, below the red Dec 16 pullback bar- Giving it a bit more room- Raised the stop on the slow 0.05 pink psar value- still below the range lows. Indicators showing increasing negativity. Stop was hit on a lower bar 12-24.
This single trade netted a +17.8% gain.
i.imgur.com/9vFnhEF.png
Since the market appears quite extended , I'm electing to protect gains with tighter stops- and to follow up with a reentry if the trade move goes back higher-
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