Week 50 Friday December Friday the 13th

[realdeal]

(click to enlarge)





A sea of red horse-race fans. Blygh leads with -0.60% in second place SD -0.80%. Realdeal in third -2.39%

[realdeal]

Lead change but red still reigns supreme. Real leads with -0.21% in second place SD -0.22%. Blygh in third -0.66%

[sd]

Here's the chart list-

stockcharts.com/public/1675108
Ended up with a larger cash position last week-Only holding some Biotech positions - oddly enough....stops weren't hit... yet...
Faux rally back on "rumors" of a trade deal seems to be propping up the markets - Tariffs- Dec 15 deadline -yes?
What happens if something substantial isn't announced in the trade tariff debate by then? 5 days to go.... I expect the markets would take some profits off the table...if they don't hear what sounds to be a positive.....I'd anticipate a -10% decline from the highs... Good place to start adding back if it occurs.
Ultimately, with low unemployment, wages increasing, strong consumer- the trend is ultimately higher- Ignore all that political BS on impeachment.... and - the boogey man- Hope that Trump is reelected in 2020.... And indecision there would likely add volatility to the downside.....2 bits there...

[realdeal]

realdeal surges into the green and leads with two days to go 3.45% gain. Blygh in second now -0.06% and SD is in third -0.74%

[realdeal]

SD,

I and my friend via text were talking the same exact thing as you just posted the other day, regarding the election. So many scenarios, I was speculating fake news would try hard to rattle the markets, saying he is behind in polls and whatever nonsense, we dip big time but it would be a BTD opportunity. My friend mentioned about if he he does not win, the markets would collapse. Trump will shred the fake Pocahontas, socialist Sanders, I don't know... is Bloomberg a real threat he may have the money to outlast a good few. I always say let the charts guide you

-rd

[sd]

I've been kicking the can sideways and remain undecided- the typical market timer's reaction that cause them to underperform the market-
I think this Dec 15 Tariff deadline is likely to have some appeasing vague rhetoric about tenative agreements- After all, the recent rally higher was based on some potential feedback that a tariff agreement was looking promising- No facts or specifics- just generalities
Listening to the talking heads - The Us economy is doing well, Fed is on hold,reinforced by Powell today.... unemployment at a century low , inflation low- -Some wage growth prompting consumers to spend more and be optimistic....Interest rates are low,- All are reasons the market should be continuing higher-
Of course there's that pesky market valuation metric that we seem to be on the high side of.....
A nice -10% off the highs typical correction would be a great entry -don't know if we will see that type of correction- but what moves us higher from here if not the Tariff resolution?
I'd rather see a break out from the recent highs- for an entry....

[sd]

Looks like we got that TODAY!
Ok, I guess Trump made an announcement on some positive trade Tariff agreement pending-...
Didn't wait for the deadline- Markets all moved higher- this eliminated some of the indecision-
Set BUY w/limit orders for Friday in technology, healthcare, Biotech -Small caps-Russel - and a small entry into energy (VDE)
Biotech position had held- just added to-
This is the price to be paid - 2-3% of getting whipsawed. but , it allows a portfolio that technically should be on the conservative side to participate in more aggressive sector weightings- using stops as the substitute for the "conservative" aspect-
Have to admit that I now find myself "Chasing" the market

[realdeal]

realdeal's sell limit was hit today at 51, so 6.75% gain is locked in with one day to go. Blygh in second place with 1.42% gain and in third SD -0.06%

[realdeal]

sd,


I was doing well with my W call options and then the market flaked a bit and that goes for another position or two I own headed back into the green almost there, if the futures hold as of 10:30 P.M. 133+ I wouldn't chase a gap up, you will get trapped, if you really want to get into something, wait for a doji or selling pressure wick which will help in some kind of pullback on the 5 min chart. To Swift which I know will be reading this... sadly I don't own MU in real life.

[sd]

Hey RD,
So much for thinking I'd get in on a sale...(Got out of work early -today- so some unusual market time)
I like the way you've been bracketing your Horse race picks- worked out well IMO a few times...
Can't usually get on during the day- new project underway. Busy Days.
I failed to reenter on the move back higher based on "discretion" despite seeing the reentry signals I would follow. With some Trade tariff resolutions underway, I think that's one roadblock that's pushed aside some...With price pushing higher above the past week's highs- you have to assume that another grind higher may be underway- Until it finally fails to do so and rolls over.

I went ahead and initiated some positions today with limit orders- got gapped over on technology though-Added to IBB, ARKK, VHT, voog, and a small energy swing with VDE-contrarian range play that may not get past this $81 level.... but it's trying
I view today's action as lukewarm - but VGT looks poised to continue the prior uptrend- $236.50 limit never got touched-$.24 higher low - will likely consider a partial in it at the Close-as it's making a new high------Day 2 above the prior high-same with the qqq's.
Talking heads seem to think Trump will seek a Phase 2 deal in the months ahead...Overall, I'm still net bullish- don't know what will derail this market- other than valuations getting stretched...
Got to find a suitable FC pick.....

[sd]

Snap on the upgrade today- at the FC- Stop $ 13.90 limit $18.00

[sd]

Change before the bellk- CYBR long @ fc stop $120,

[realdeal]

"click to enlarge"

IRA comes back from the abyss on the last trading day of the week to take it for the win... 7.05% gain. In second is real deal with 6.75% gain and in third Blygh 1.18% gain.

[sd]

Congrats on the Win IRA, and a good run RD! You got your limit early- and yet MU stretched even higher today!

[ira85]

I’ll stay on VIXY short. IRA