Week of 17 October to the 22 Oct 2016

[blygh]

Post time !!!Riders Up !!

Rider	Horse	Open	Latest	Gain/Loss	%	Stop	Limit	Rank
Tiarra	AAL short	38.66				40.25
Joe	DOG	20.91
Ira	LMT	232.68
Spiderman	APC	63.23
SD	NFLX	100.44
Blygh	ITUB	12.16
Market	SPY	213.09
	QQQ	117.04

Joe had chosen  SDOW which is leveraged X3 and violates new rules - I took the liberty of just assigning a short Dow Jones Industrial average DOG - OK Joe?

[sd]

Here's how they looked before the open....
Charts are 2 HOUR TIME FRAMES- and Heiken-ASHI - reducing the "noise' of the entire price range over several days into the most prevalent -ideally to help identify trending See the stockcharts School Ed article for more accurate information on these types of charts , and their potential use.
stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=heiken-ashi&id=chart_school:chart_analysis:heikin_ashi

AAL short is Tiarra's steed

Spiderman's trusty mount is APC

jOE'S PICK WAS ASSIGNED TO A NON-LEVERAGED - SHORTING THE DOW WITH DOG.,

BLYGH IS GOING WITH ITUB- SOMEONE NEEDS TO TELL ITUB THE MARKET IS NOT TRENDING


IRA SADDLES UP WITH HIS DEFAULT LMT....

SD WAS HOPING THE PRIOR RALLY WILL JUST BE THE START OF BETTER THINGS TO COME THIS WEEK FOR NFLX


AND LAST IN THE LINE-UP IS SPY


LAST IS A PRICE PERFORMANCE CHART WITH SPY BEING THE BASE LINE .

[tiarra]

I really like your weekly charts, SD. I will tell Joe about the new rule. I forgot to tell him, sorry

[blygh]

And they are off and running ...

Rider	Horse	Open	Latest	Gain/Loss	%	Stop	Lm	Rank
Tiarra	AAL short	38.66	38.58	-0.08	+0.2%	40.25		3
Joe	DOG	20.91	20.96	+0.05	+0.24%			2
Ira	LMT	232.68	232.37	-0.31	-0.13%			5
Spiderman	APC	63.23	62.51	-0.72	-1.1%			7
SD	NFLX	100.44	99.80	-0.64	-0.64%			6
Blygh	ITUB	12.16	12.38	+0.22	+1.81%			1
Market	SPY	213.09	212.38	-0.71	-0.03%			4
	QQQ	117.04	116.82	-0.22	-0.19%

Blygh inches out of the gate first

[sd]

Thanks Tiarra,
it's my 'contribution' to the Race- I am intending to vary the charts, time frames etc as we go along. If you (or any other racer) has anything of particular interest chart wise of interest or to share,compare, let me know and I will include that in the future.

Ahem, Blygh
move over LOL!

[blygh]

Whoa Netflix NFLX up 20% in after hours trading - SD could be an early winner -  Not sure about the import of "Ahem Blygh"  Would you like me to document some other parameters ?- I keep an eye on PE, PEG, Short Interest and ratio, sector performance,  insider trading, price to sales, dividends, payout ratio  and analyst opinions.


Blygh

[sd]

I keep an eye on PE, PEG, Short Interest and ratio, sector performance, insider trading, price to sales, dividends, payout ratio and analyst opinions.


That's a boatload to look into Blygh!
I don't have the background/education/understanding to properly make an evaluation based on sorting through many of those criteria-
I grasp the sector performance, sector rotation, insider trading- and perhaps the short interest ratio =
I would think it takes quite a bit of skill to evaluate among the other criteria- For example- Some stocks= are given a very high PE- often based on unproven future growth potential- and these can run for years -for a few companies, while others in that same industry group will not be given the same high -and perhaps unjustified PE . Understanding that means that one needs to understand that a low PE does not necessarily mean a better value. I am sure you have a process by where you evaluate the mix- and then make an investment or trade decision.
For example-AMZN has a PE of 202, Forward PE of $75 but a lot of impressive EPS % - 5 yr growth projection over 50%
NFLX PE of 309, Forward PE of 117, 5 year eps growth of 59%
www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=nflx&ty=c&ta=1&p=d


Look at the drop in price in 2016 and now the gain-
I expect you would view Amzn - and other very high PE movers perhaps differently as a momentum group ?More for trades than for Investments?
Would you also seek a higher PE in searching through an Industry group to find a candidate expected to have the higher growth potential as valued by the market?
Lots to ask in this regard-


If the market's "normal " PE is 17-18 what does that suggest about where we are now?

If you have time to expand a bit on how you assimilate and process that information into the decision making process, Whatever you are willing to share, would be in interesting.

I know a financial Adviser that i just asked this question to and they are very bullish going forward-post elections- They feel that more companies will present better earnings growth in the future quarters. We didn't talk about the possible Fed raise in December. Their approach is to rebalance on any market significant decline to sell off bonds and add into stocks.For the long term.

I was just having a disagreement of sorts with a friend citing the higher PE valuations due to stock purchases (due to the decline in bond performance) as just one reason we are overdue for a market correction. I used this as my rationale to raise cash in my retirement account-citing there would appear to be a much greater Risk of Downside movement than upside gains. This would also free up some capital near the recent highs to apply in a pullback- And the Fed is almost certainly looking to tighten- might be a catalyst for a correction reaction
Thanks- SD

[blygh]

The PE ratios tell you more about mature companies  as opposed to growth companies  - TSLA has some horrendous PE but buying it today is like buying Ford in 1910.  Wealthy people are buying it for their grand children.  They do not need income now.  For growth companies the PEG ratio is more helpful PE divided by growth rate -  I am partial to companies with PEGs less than 3 (e.g. if PE is 50 but growth rate is 25% - the PEG is 2 - can it keep that sort of growth up?  Buffet likes Price/Sales  of 1 -  I keep an eye on P/S - and look at it in conjunction with the ratio of insider buys vs insider sales - this has not been a great short term indicator but tends to be validated over the long term .   I wish I could distill all the data into some formula to guide me but I am not savvy enough to work it out.  I just form an overall impression.

Blygh  

[sd]

Thanks for sharing the information- I expect that experience has given you an intuitive feel for what makes sense to you , and what you have learned over the long run.
I have a copy of one of Cramer's books that explains " What " it means on a balance sheet- but gaining the understanding of what is more significant from that info is another task- I'll have to read it again one rain day in the future-

Following the last post, I did run the Finviz screener also working down from the highest PE ratios, and did a fair amount of buying today.Had to look though over 400 stock charts and got down into the 30 PE ratios finally for some picks.

I also did a sort for Brazil, bought some ITUB, and discovered that the Finviz chart does not at all match stockcharts- although the actual price quoted was identical. BBD moving strongly today.

Toying with the screener, I realize that it offers a good way to make a shopping/review list using some valuation metrics-sorting PEG ratio, 5 year forward EPS, etc. One more tool- Got to learn to sharpen those I use-

[blygh]

Into the far turn 

Rider	Horse	Open	Latest	Gain/Loss	%	Stop	Lm	Rank
Tiarra	AAL short	38.66	39.35	+0.69	-1.79%	40.25		5
Joe	DOG	20.91	20.90	-0.01	+0.04%			2 tie
Ira	LMT	232.68	232.79	+0.11	-0.05%			3
Spiderman	APC	63.23	62.97	-0.26	-0.41%			4
SD	NFLX	100.44	118.79	+18.35	+18.27%			1
Blygh	ITUB	12.16	11.55	-0.61	-5.02%			6
Market	SPY	213.09	213.17	+0.08	+0.04%			2 tie
	QQQ	117.04	117.86	+0.82	+0.7%

SD laps the field with all else barely out of the gate - or not

[blygh]

In the back stretch

Rider	Horse	Open	Latest	Gain/Loss	%	Stop		Rank
Tiarra	AAL short	38.66	40.63-Stopped @40.25	+1.59	-4.11%	40.25		6
Joe	DOG	20.91	20.83	-0.08	-0.38%			5
Ira	LMT	232.68	232.33	-0.35	-0.15%			4
Spiderman	APC	63.23	63.93	+0.70	+1.1%			2
SD	NFLX	100.44	121.94	+21.50	+21.41%			1
Blygh	ITUB	12.16	11.40	-0.76	-6.25%			7
Market	SPY	213.09	214.22	+1.13	+0.53%			3
	QQQ	117.04	117.85	+0.81	+0.69%

SD way out in front

[tiarra]

Nice pick SD!
Blygh, you are really on the ball with updating. thanks

[sd]

Thanks, but could have gone the other way just as fast on an earnings miss. So it was at best a gamble-a roll of the dice -if you will- I certainly did not expect that large of an upside move. Will improve my stats! But... Week is not over yet- And yes- Thanks Blygh for keeping this updated!

[blygh]

I am just wondering if NFLX is ripe to short- when the buyers all get their shares - the price should go down .
BTW I hope you folks (SD and Tiarra) don't mind my increasing the size of your postings type.  I have a hard time with the small print 

Blygh 

[blygh]

Around the clubhouse turn and heading for home

Rider	Horse	Open	Latest	Gain/Loss	%	Stop		Rank
Tiarra	AAL short	38.66	40.59-Stopped @40.25	+1.59	-4.11%	40.25		6
Joe	DOG	20.91	20.86	-0.05	-0.239%			4
Ira	LMT	232.68	231.83	-0.35	-0.82%			5
Spiderman	APC	63.23	63.75	+0.52	+0.822%			2
SD	NFLX	100.44	123.35	+22.91	+22.81%			1
Blygh	ITUB	12.16	11.55	-0.61	-5.02%			7
Market	SPY	213.09	213.88	+0.79	+0.37%			3
	QQQ	117.04	117.71	+0.67	+0.57%

SD extends his already substantial lead