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Post by bankedout on Oct 9, 2012 11:10:24 GMT -5
S 114 SNFCA $5.03
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Post by bankedout on Oct 9, 2012 11:18:38 GMT -5
Today I bought 200 shares of HDGE @ $20.76 This represents about 1/2 of my account value.  |
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Post by bankedout on Oct 9, 2012 12:40:45 GMT -5
I did some bean counting on everything. I compared my account performance with IWC during this recent bull run.
My portfolio:
5/31/12 $6168
10/9/12 $8367
36% gain
IWC
5/31/12 $46.82
10/9/12 $52.29
12% gain
So my picks did beat the market.
On the trades I closed today, if there were multiple purchases and sales I added up all the money received from sales, and divided that by all the money spent on purchases, subtracted 1, and multiplied by 100 to come up with percent gain/loss on the stock.
CPSS +16%
GV -8%
MSON +32%
REED +83%
SGRP -3%
STRM +30%
WZE/FU 0% (+200 shares FUTU)
FONR +66%
IMH +57%
SNFCA -8%
Current portfolio:
200 HDGE cost $20.76
168 VSR cost $3.70
83 WSCI cost $7.60
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Post by bankedout on Oct 9, 2012 14:11:00 GMT -5
I bought 500 shares of TVIX today @ $1.47 I know the road is littered with people who have bought this and lost due to the nature of the product. VIX is at a low point, and I want to try and participate in any upside. This is clearly a gamble!   |
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Post by sd on Oct 9, 2012 19:59:33 GMT -5
Very nice results-!
I was stopped out of 1/2 of my positions between yesterday and today's price action.
I would also take a go at HDGE - but freed cash is just $27.26. Perhaps Thursday-
Allow me to comment about the obvious overweighting (bet)
you are taking with HDGE @ 1/2 of your port value- Along with the TVIX trade, you are very heavily betting on a reversal of trend occurring.
Are you approaching these trades differently ( setting stops on part or all of the positions? ) There would seem to be a difference in these recent entries and your prior gradual entries.
With your earlier trades, you applied a somewhat diversified / balanced position sizing approach, without a fixed stop-loss, and you had a very nice profitible portfolio gain- And you had a logical basis for taking those trades along with a market that was moving higher.
As you noted with TVIX- " I know the road is littered with people who have bought this and lost due to the nature of the product. VIX is at a low point, and I want to try and participate in any upside. This is clearly a gamble!"
You clearly are not 'impulsive' regarding your trading-
and I would then assume You think this is an early time for a market reversal- and are willing to bet heavily on thaT?
With this higher Risk approach, have you modified the way you follow your trades/?
Good luck, Sd
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Post by bankedout on Oct 9, 2012 22:12:16 GMT -5
I do not have stop losses on any positions. I do watch them, and if I see something that looks wrong to me I act on that.
As far as diversification, I'm trading in an account where I can't short sell individual securities or buy futures contracts. I'm very limited in how I can try to profit from a down move in the market.
HDGE is composed of multiple stocks, so it is diversified in that regard.
TVIX is a fairly small position (less than 10% of account value). I'm guessing that if things unravel a bit, it could trade significantly higher (more than double today's value). If I had a better way to profit from downside market moves, I would use it.
Today seemed like a turning point for the markets in the mid term (weeks to months). It looked like a good place to enter. Time will tell if I'm proven correct or not. Yes, I am overweight in HDGE, but it is diversified. As far as I know there are no other exchange traded funds that have a short bias and are not focused on a single day's performance. In the mutual fund world I'm aware of GRZZX & BEARX, however being mutual funds trading is delayed. I prefer to enter and exit intraday.
I have been watching the Nasdaq struggling lately, but I did not expect it to crash through all of it's support today. I then saw IWM & IWC following along. I'm thinking even the large caps as represented by SPY & DIA will be dragged down by the Nasdaq. Time will tell.
Thanks for your comments, and good luck to you as well.
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Post by bankedout on Oct 9, 2012 22:21:31 GMT -5
Here is what I mean by the Nasdaq crashing through support:  I think it looks significant for the medium term. |
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Post by bankedout on Oct 10, 2012 10:46:03 GMT -5
Today I sold my shares in VSR for $3.55 which is a 4% loss.
At first I was going to keep the stock thinking it wouldn't be subject to much profit taking since it hasn't been run up much. However if we get a month or two of weakness in the market, I don't think there is enough enthusiasm about the company to keep the price propped up for that long. The revenues from their military contract won't effect their bottom line for a while.
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Post by bankedout on Oct 10, 2012 12:33:14 GMT -5
A comparison of bear fund options shows BEARX outperforming GRZZX & HDGE over the past year. The out performance isn't large enough for me to give up the ability to move in and out when the markets are open.  |
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Post by bankedout on Oct 10, 2012 12:51:19 GMT -5
I sold my 500 shares of TVIX today for $1.49 which is a 1% gain.
The VIX itself is not rising as I expected it would with the selling today. These products are designed for very short term trading, so if it doesn't do what is expected it has to be dumped. Otherwise the value will decay quickly. I am poised to re-enter.
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Post by bankedout on Oct 11, 2012 10:21:14 GMT -5
Today I sold 36 shares of WSCI @ $7.64 I thought I traded in small lots! I have 47 shares remaining.
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Post by bankedout on Oct 11, 2012 10:28:25 GMT -5
Someone bought my remaining 47 shares of WSCI for $7.64 Result of the trade is essentially break even (entered at $7.60)
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Post by bankedout on Oct 11, 2012 11:36:33 GMT -5
I found 2 better instruments to try to trade volatility rather than TVIX. TVIX is trading above indicated value and my commission structure is such that trading over 333 shares of an item causes me to pay more than $5.00 in commissions.
So VXX is a liquid one and UVXY is a liquid leveraged version. Both of these are designed to track the DAILY move of the VIX I would prefer if there was a product designed to track moves over longer periods of time, but I am unaware of any.
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Post by bankedout on Oct 11, 2012 12:02:47 GMT -5
I have to get ready for work so I won't be able to watch any more trading today.
I submitted the following orders:
Buy 100 HDGE at market if SPY trades at or below $142.69
Sell 200 HDGE at market if QQQ trades at or above $67.51
I think we are at a critical short term juncture here.
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Post by bankedout on Oct 12, 2012 9:51:54 GMT -5
I adjusted my buy order on HDGE to trigger when SPY trades at or below $142.94 At that point pretty much everyone who bought in the last month will be under water with their positions.
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