bankedout's trading journal

[bankedout]

Well, I will try trading just the S&P 500 index for a while. If I feel a need to add another product, I will do so.

It is a very diversified product. Many of the companies are global, and have businesses tied to commodities and agriculture. I think it is an excellent representation of "the market".

Even if the S&P is not trending in the long or medium term, there will always be shorter term fluctuations to try and take advantage of.

I think the single focus will be good for me, and it will free up a lot of my spare time.

Thanks for your interest.

[bankedout]

I adjusted all of my sell stops. Ideally I do not want to get taken out with a stop, I would rather exit in to a move in my desired direction.

For the short term trades I decided to use Friday's afternoon lows as a parking spot.

ERY $8.54
FAZ $17.89
GASX $17.04
RUSS $21.69
SDOW $74.24
TZA $16.69
UVXY $30.79
SQQQ $44.59
EDZ $11.58

These are basically saying that if we open bullish on Monday I want to hit the exits on my short term shorts.

However if we open bearish on Monday, I will start searching for a place to exit at more of a profit.

On SPXU I backed off the stop to $39.94 I think if we have to come back to that range to find sellers again, the trend may not be worth following. What I want to see is either a continued move down for the S&P, or more of a relaxed pause that will show buyers are not very aggressive in trying to catch a falling knife.

The market doesn't always give us what we want..... Some say it is even diabolical.

[bankedout]

Here are the 6 most liquid ETFs designed to track the S&P 500:

SPY single long
SSO double long
UPRO triple long

SH single short
SDS double short
SPXU triple short

[bankedout]

To get an idea of how the different levels of leverage play out, you can do comparison charts at Yahoo Finance. In the examples below I chose a 3 month time frame.





In different time frames the results differ. The shorter the amount of time, the more likely they do what they are supposed to do.

[bankedout]

Three of my sell stops triggered this morning.

I sold my 49 shares of GASX at $16.97 for a 4.5% profit

I sold my 70 shares of EDZ at $11.58 for a 1.3% profit

I sold my 26 shares of UVXY at $30.86 for a 0.7% profit

I raised my other stops to under this morning's lows as follows:

ERY $8.63
FAZ $18.02
RUSS $21.74
SDOW $74.68
TZA $16.77
SQQQ $44.64

Again, I do not want to sell on stop. I want to sell in to a wave down. We'll see if I get what I want.....

[bankedout]

Two other stops were hit today.

RUSS at $21.69 for a 3.3% gain

SDOW at $74.70 for a 2.8% gain

Now my account buying power is only 50% short, but with the 3X leveraged ETFs the account is still 150% short.

Again, I'm looking for a place to cover at a juicier profit.

[bankedout]

Again, I slept through another short covering opportunity.

The market is slowly drawing me back towards a cash position. Two sell stops triggered this morning.

ERY at $8.63 for a 3.9% profit

FAZ at $18.01 for a 1.9% profit

The S&P has diverged from the Nasdaq & the Russel 2000 today. One sometimes has to wonder if the dog wags the tail or if the tail wags the dog. The market always finds a way to keep you guessing.

Another thought. What if this is the rally? Could it be this muted, to be almost barely noticed? I guess we will have to stay tuned to find out. Things always become clearer when they are in the rear view mirror. However we must drive by looking out through the windshield.

[bankedout]

Doesn't this chart of light sweet crude oil make you want to get short?



Already I'm being tested with my S&P focus! I will maintain discipline, and keep my focus.

[bankedout]

I raised my sell stops as follows:

TZA $16.84

SQQQ $45.24

[bankedout]

I raised my sell stops as follows:

TZA $16.98

SQQQ $45.44

[bankedout]

The base that buyers have been building the last few days is starting to look shaky. I decided to hold TZA & SQQQ in hopes of finding a better place to close them tomorrow.

Again today, nobody felt comfortable going home long. I would be reluctant to hold stocks overnight as well.

[bankedout]

Finally the market gave me what I wanted!

I closed TZA at $17.71 for a 7.7% profit

I also closed SQQQ at $46.84 for a 6.7% profit

[bankedout]

I do have to give dg's idea of trading the Russell 2000 instead of the S&P 500 some more thought.

If you look at just this short term trade:



You can see a significant difference. Over the long haul, that difference can add up.

Hmmmm.

[bankedout]

Over time:

[bankedout]

I can't deny the evidence.

I sold SPXU at $43.66 for a 5.8% profit.

I'm going to trade TZA & TNA for a while.