bankedout's trading journal

[bankedout]

I bought 38 shares of RUSS at $21.00 This is an inverse of Russian stocks (RSX)

[bankedout]

I bought 8 shares of SDOW at $72.47 this is an inverse of the Dow Industrials (DIA)

[bankedout]

I bought 19 shares of SPXU at $41.26 which is an inverse of the S&P 500 (SPY)

[bankedout]

I bought 48 shares of TZA at $16.44 which is an inverse of Small Cap stocks (IWM)



As they say in NASCAR, things are starting to get loose!

[bankedout]

I bought 45 shares of FAZ at $17.67 which is an inverse of Financials (IYF)

[bankedout]

I bought 96 shares of ERY at $8.31 which is an inverse of Energy stocks (IYE)



Both WFC & XOM failed the levels I was watching as support.

[bankedout]

I bought 26 shares of UVXY at $30.65 I'm guessing volatility will increase from the current levels.

[sd]

I think you've definitely got the near term market direction correct!
I do not see how the market can find a way to put in any
counter rally of substance with all the hangover and indecision going forward-
The 'Fiscal Cliff" is the big overhang- If there was a bipartisan agreement in principle to postpone it , the market would rally- There will be a lot of political posturing in the weeks ahead-
Good luck in managing these leveraged trades- Ideally, they will trend higher in your direction-
What may be their innate volatility could be difficult to sit through - SD

[bankedout]

I bought 18 shares of SQQQ at $43.91 This is an inverse of the Nasdaq (QQQ)

[bankedout]

I bought 70 shares of EDZ at $11.43 which is an inverse of Emerging Markets (EEM)

[bankedout]

Actions speak louder than words. My account is now about 300% short. Needless to say I'm bearish.

I'm coming off of a really great month in October with an account value gain of +11.8% for last month.

Hopefully I won't blow up my account with such a leveraged bet.....

[bankedout]

Here is the portfolio at the end of day 1:



I still have a tidbit of cash on hand and 200 shares of FUTU not represented here.

It seems like I have accepted a lot of risk, for so far very little reward. Hopefully the market will be favorable to me!

[blygh]

I admire your guts - I am very nervous about leveraged x3 ETFs in volatile sectors like energy - small caps - nat gas - I keep tight stops on mine and will not hold them over a weekend - presently I am holding DTO (double shorts oil) REW(shorts technology) SKF ( shorts financials) SMN (shorts materials ) DUG (shorts drillers/producers)
Blygh

[sd]

leveraged ETF's- Greater Risk should also yield greater rewards-
As you noted in your table, the 8.57% reward would have been realized if one had gone long at the close yesterday-You see just 1% at the close of the market after getting filled at the higher open levels-
However, Ideally you will see consecutive forward momentum- for several days-
Your bearish bias indeed has come forward-
I would think that the ability to see the trade continue in it's bear direction will require the most flexibility- Where do you determine that the trade has lost it's momentum-?
Good Luck! SD

[bankedout]

I guess my best way to answer your question is with open orders. I have sell stops set above yesterday's high. I'm guessing if that is breached I was dead wrong.

As far as how I will know when the sellers are becoming exhausted or buyers are becoming refreshed? I just watch the charts.

I view my positions as partial short term, and partial medium term. Meaning I would like to reduce exposure if we get a couple of days of downside (or so, this is not an exact science) however if the downside is convincing, I would like to retain part of my positions for a longer term hold (maybe a month?, again this is not an exact science).

I'm sure the market will let me know when I am right or when I am wrong. As Jesse Livermore used to say, I don't know until I bet.