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Post by bankedout on Oct 18, 2012 22:49:33 GMT -5
I cancelled my buy stops for INUV and LTON. Clearly my timing is off on these ideas.
I believe what I need to do is enter my buy stops when I believe the market is at or near a short term low. My guess is I came in too late during the short term rally in the market.
I raised my sell stop on BLIN to just under today's low at $1.49
My sell stop in SVA is still at $3.24 just a penny below today's low. My guess is it will trigger almost immediately tomorrow morning. Which makes sense because clearly the 'breakout' has failed.
XWES is not acting like a stock hitting multi year highs. There is no enthusiasm at all. That trade could easily end in a loss as well.
HDGE managed to go down today, even though the Nasdaq fell by 1% It is definitely not a perfect vehicle to short the market, but I'm not aware of any better alternative.
So as the market changes from one that was a multi month bull market to undecided/slightly bearish, I have ground my account down from peak levels. Hopefully I can figure out something soon to get the balance rising consistently again!
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Post by bankedout on Oct 18, 2012 23:15:23 GMT -5
Again it looks like the Nasdaq could drag the broader market down.
I put in a buy stop on HDGE for 155 shares if it trades at or above $20.41
It looks like it could be about time to be net short again, at least for the short term (days to a week), possibly for the medium term (weeks/months) if the broader market takes out the 10/12/12 low.
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Post by bankedout on Oct 19, 2012 8:54:36 GMT -5
My sell stop triggered in SVA & I sold my shares at $3.21 for a 5% loss
My buy stop triggered in HDGE & I bought 15 shares at $20.34 & 140 shares at $20.35
I then manually closed XWES & BLIN. XWES closed at $5.18 for a 5% loss and BLIN closed at $1.55 & $1.62 for a 4% loss.
Then I added 115 more shares of HDGE at $20.46 bringing my total position size to 390 shares. This leaves me essentially 100% short the market in my account (except my 200 shares of FUTU).
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Post by bankedout on Oct 19, 2012 10:06:57 GMT -5
I don't know if you have ever checked out: finviz.com/map3d.ashxTo see where the pockets of strength and weakness are in the market. It is pretty cool. You can also point to a stock and a chart will pop up too. Finviz is my favorite investing website. If you are not familiar with the site, it is worth spending some time there. It looks like GE is starting to come undone. That should bode well for my HDGE position, and a general market decline. So far the weakness has been concentrated in Technology over the past month, but it seems to be spreading pretty good now. |
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Post by bankedout on Oct 19, 2012 10:29:01 GMT -5
I decided to make a small trade in UVXY. For some reason I think this could be the start of some volatility.
I sold 40 of my shares of HDGE at $20.54
I then purchased 32 shares of UVXY at $26.98
UVXY is speculative for many reasons, but I just have a feeling it might go up a bit.
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Post by bankedout on Oct 19, 2012 11:23:06 GMT -5
CSCO has been cracked. Investors are puking up their stocks in earnest now. I think it is becoming very broad based. This has the makings of a good one!
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Post by sd on Oct 19, 2012 18:59:39 GMT -5
Your bearish outlook is coming to fruition- Congratulations on your flexibility and timing! I still don't know what the catalyst would be for a really severe correction , since earnings were already expected to be poor- Housing is up as is housing pricing. However, I don't know what the catalyst would be to rally the market- unless it was election news the market found favorable- or unexpected good earnings within a segment.
I still do not think (hope) that this will be anything but a relatively minor profit taking correction- and with a Romney win- the market will rally slighly higher- expecting that a Romney whitehouse would deal positively with the so called 'fiscal cliff-
I also believe a Romney election will be seen as a more positive for business, and by extension for the US Economy, Energy, and taxes.
I also think the US economy, with the Fed backstopping it, is the most stable investment for the world's money-
All that noise said, I'll be tightening all trades with a faster time frame chart and reducing position size on new trades-
I'll continue to look at sectors (Biotech?) that show strength despite the weakness in the larger mkt. good Luck! SD
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Post by blygh on Oct 19, 2012 22:26:49 GMT -5
I think you are right Bankedout - I am short energy with DUG, short technology with REW, short the Nasdaq with QID and short emerging markets with EUM. also double short oil with DTO but just a small position - check out the Noriel Roubini article I summarized and cited in Market Predictions/Conditions - Assesment and Predictions - tight stops as long as the 10 year stays below 3%.
Blygh
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Post by bankedout on Oct 19, 2012 22:38:21 GMT -5
The catalyst for the selloff had something to do with technology. The Nasdaq is clearly leading the way down.
As far as fuel for downward prices, we had a nice bull run over the Summer. People will feel the need to take profits. At least in the short term, momentum traders may want to capitalize on the downside by shorting as well.
I have no idea how long it will last or how far it will go. I'm just watching for signs of strengthening of the move, or reversal, or the market becoming undecided and consolidating for a while.
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Post by bankedout on Oct 20, 2012 8:49:05 GMT -5
It is a good idea to think about where we are in relation to where we have been over the last couple of years. You can see the current divergence of the Nasdaq vs S&P 500, with the Nasdaq showing greater weakness over the past month. At the very least the last bull run of this Summer has to look questionable now. My guess is, if the S&P weakens just a bit further, it will unravel pretty good.  |
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Post by blygh on Oct 21, 2012 10:53:38 GMT -5
Agreed - old saw - when small caps peek - the bull market is over
Blygh
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Post by bankedout on Oct 21, 2012 11:11:59 GMT -5
The monthly view of QQQ & SPY is a good perspective as well. Note from the 2009 lows we have experienced 4 legs up. Each one smaller than the last. Is the market running out of steam on a longer term scale?  |
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Post by bankedout on Oct 23, 2012 9:34:01 GMT -5
I see absolutely no value in HDGE's active management. It would be better if they just shorted the QQQ or SPY or IWM. I hope some day there is an ETF that does just that. Of course without using futures (like the current short ETFs that are designed to track a single day's performance), then it could be held for months at a time.
Until, then......
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Post by bankedout on Oct 23, 2012 19:58:11 GMT -5
With today's very disappointing performance of HDGE (I think due to it's largest holding COH being up on the day) I put together a list of leveraged short/bear ETFs. They are designed to track a single day's performance, which will not synch up correctly with reality over time. However, I still think they will be more profitable than HDGE. Clearly HDGE's active management team is not on the ball with selecting good securities to sell short.
For example, TECS is doing much better than HDGE over the past month. The selling has been so Technology focused lately.
My list of leveraged short/bear ETFs is:
TZA
SPXS
FAZ
ERY
EDZ
TECS
I do plan to eliminate my HDGE position and replace it with some or all of these leveraged short ETFs at some point in the future.
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Post by bankedout on Oct 24, 2012 7:27:08 GMT -5
I sold my 32 shares of UVXY in pre-market today at $32.25 for a 19.5% profit.
I plan to close my HDGE as well, either in pre-market or near the open.
The market will probably stage a short term rally, which I don't think I will be able to participate in due to other obligations today.
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