sd's -Adapting in 2011

[sd]

Thanks Bankedout-
We hope to get a good amount of use out of it once the temps moderate a bit- - In the cooler days, we will have a small exterior firepit to extend our outside living-
Temps today exceeded 98 degrees-These days, A cold beer at the end of the workday on the patio , dog's running in the yard, nice way to unwind - below 90 degrees though! LOL SD

[sd]

Trades for Monday-
2 pending trades in UGL and SLV for Monday-
I'm using Buy-stops on both trades with the 60 minute chart as a guide.
Price action on both paused this past week, and it could potentially signal we're about to drop into a sideways range/consolidation- Both of these respond to interpretation of the market as safe haven buys in times of uncertainty - But I always misinterpret the timing of the market in that regard- or what is already" priced in"- Only the pundits know for sure-
I'll try to follow the trend with these 2 trades along with the 60 min chart - and use Sar where possible- SD

[sd]

Was filled on both SLV and UGL today , as the market closed modestly lower- The debt issue is still the overhang for these trades to move higher.
These trades are momentum based on market fears-
SD

[sd]

7-26-11
I added 2 fills today in UGL- A limit buy on a lower price pullback $88.16 which filled @ 10:20 am, and a buy-stop order if price exceeded the yesterday price level filled @ $89.10 @ 13:28. I am overweight+ on this position and I am setting stops close- Sar and slightly below. Sd

[sd]

Price action in both Gold and Silver was lousy today- with another gap higher and sell-off lower close intraday.
The market closed sharply lower, but Gold and Silver also closed down as well- Euro sold off today and the dollar gained-

The talks about the debt crisis are still at an impasse.

I'm not attaching any of my beliefs to these trades- Raising Stops on the 60 minute chart and Sar levels. When the trade fails to trend, I'll be stopped out- Looks like that may happen tomorrow- SD

[sd]

As anticipated, Both Gld and Slv stopped out-
My UGL stop executed @ $87.85 (stop $88.00)
SLV stopped $39.00-

Both trades lost less than 2% of the position size allotment-

Getting stopped out underscores the rationale we apply when we decide to take a trade- for whatever reason.

My big premise for Gold and Silver is the 'flight to safety" as the markets get undecided- The big picture is not just the US debt, but also the world debt picture.- Eurozone in rehab.....
Both trades lost under 2% of the position size allocated- and so it's well within parameters-
Don't like the price action - weak- in spite of what seems would be a big precious metals rally in face of the debt crisis..
Again, it proves my interpretation of what the market should do is likely flawed- Price action rules- and it stopped me out- Sd

[sd]

I had gotten back into UGL belatedly earlier this week, and had a limit order to add to the position that also got filled today @ $92.50- sold $92.56 nearing the close...... Looked weak-
I have been focusing on trading UGL with the 60 minute chart/Sar -
I got home early this afternoon, and watched the market and price action- While Gold-UGL had opened to make a new High today, It sold off progressively all day after the open. (hitting my buy-stop;limit add on the way down) Didn't reach my $98 limit sell-
Today's news- talks of world wide slowing growth, possible recession, etc - in spite of the US Gov't getting a temporary debt agreement in place- Saw selling not only in the US but overseas.

Gold and Silver have been the "flight to safety" trade-
I have found that with the bidget defecit crisis, and several other news events, that has not necessarily caused a reaction in price as I anticipated. This again is my perception of what "Should" happen-

Today's price action- Gold gapping to a new high and then selling off sharply all day told me that it sure wasn't being used as a flight to safety in the face of a sell-off market- (Dow down $512 to 11,383. )
This confirms that I am not knowledgeable enough about why peoiple buy and sell Gold- or that their reasons change with the environment and changing market conditions.

If we look at a 60 minute chart, the price gap up the past 2 days clearly is high, but if my thinking of Gold as a safety hedge should have seen price go much higher- Instead- it sold along with the rest of the market- Silver lost 7% today.
But a weekly chart suggests that UGL simply caught the top side of the upper trend line- How far will it pullback until it becomes a viable reentry? I Will watch price action to see a possible reentry.
I pulled the trigger and sold- got out with a small gain on the earlier reentry, and break-even on the added position.
I went long ZSL- silver short- Got burned on this the last time I tried it, but -moth to a candle........
Went long EUO as well.

I'm off tomorrow (Friday) , and will consider adding some trades- The question is "when" will the market stage a snap-back- oversold rally?
Yesterday In my IRA and my wife's, I transferred monies out of some funds into the money market fund & some bond funds- I'm still approx 50% cash in the IRA waiting for that Buy opportunity- That may be coming- SD

[sd]

Silver short-Using ZSL-
A spec short with a tight stop- If price does not immediately open in my direction (hoping for a gap higher) I'll be stopped out-Sd

[sd]

ugl charts on this sell-off day 8-04-2011

[sd]

My only "winning" trade was my Gold stopped- exit in UGL for a small gain. I haven't been keeping up well with my trades-and as part of a disciplined approach, I need to do so and document them .
I was home Thursday pm while the market was selling-And Gold and Silver were being sold sharply as well.
Silver is the more volatile of the two, and usually tags along with Gold in direction,.
I took 2 trades to try and short Silver using ZSL-
The first was prompted by a price action on the 60 min chart that suggested a reversal of trend was trying to occur- That gave me the reason to enter a buy-stop limit order that pm . Trade filled and hit my max stop -3.3% .
Thursday pm I entered ZSL long again - going into the close-
Chart wise, it had exceeded the recent prior rally, was above the fast ema, had a indecisive doji bar followed by a bullish candle at the close. (60 min) .
The low of the doji made a logical stop-loss,. and that's where I set it. I did not want to go to the fast ema or further to Sar-
Had I set a wider stop- I'd still be in the position, but that seems to be a folly just to hope to be right.
I KNOW picking the beginning of a Trend Reversal is risky business- The first trade was certainly that, but the 2nd trade attempt had the full fury of a market selling off and taking Silver with it- Was it the good jobs report that affected the way price acted- I suspect that was indeed the factor- Stop was hit as price pulled back at the open and then went on higher.
The probabilities of a trend reversal happening at any one time has to be far less than a continuation of trend - 3 x 5x ?
So what do I take away from these attempted Reversal of Trend trades?
I tried these trades to get in early- Desire to catch a bigger gain (Greed) . Also, there was a factor of belief that this move would happen that coincided with the chart action.
I'm going to have to adjust my entry into these trades-
First, I will need to use a 1/2 position on the initial entry. I will then add to the position only when the 1st position is net profitable and can set a stop at B.E. or higher. I may also split the stops on the entry order.
A continuation of Trend trade already has the momentum going in the right direction- Therefore, I feel more comfortable in putting on a larger position. It might be wise as this market is getting dicey to apply the same approach as well.
also went long SDS and REW, -had RXD but accidentally hit limit instead of stop adjusting the bracket order. Following Ira's and Blygh's lead there.
Chart of ZSL

[sd]

It looks as though the s&P downgrade will indeed affect world markets and the US markets as well.(Sunday pm news) As profound a move as this would seem, the markets have an uncanny ability to discount something when it seems it should embrace it. Look at the effect of the jobs report Friday compared to the sell-it-at all costs action on Thursday.

My short positions from Friday should see the gain Monday-Unfortunately, they were only 1/2 positions, and I've got limit orders to add to the positions.
Gold is reportedly up $40.00. I'm following my UGL trade with a buy stop set at the downtrending Par sar $94.75 -94.85.
If it wasn't for this downgrade, I anticipated that Gold would pull back further- However, I still would have followed the Gold Price with the declining Sar as my buy-stop entry-regardless of my opinion. If Gold Gaps over my limit - as likely will be the case, I'll have to address that as a separate issue-
Sd

[blygh]

Hi sd - you made a weekly selection on DTO long - I commented that I owned it with a price target of
68 - it sit 69 today so I put my stop loss at 68 - it hit it so I am out (even though I had a limit sell price of 78) - oil is getting too cheap and out of whack given the demand. Tinking about shorting emergening markets now (EUM) - got an opinion? UGL is going great guns - time to slip % stops into place

Blygh

[sd]

Hi Blygh!
I wish I could give tales of the nice gain I made in UGL, but I did not get my reentry order filled, and it has rocketed ahead without me! Combine that with 2 days of no internet service, and I'm just shaking my head . I just was not prepared to chase Gold that hard. Expected a pullback of sorts- but how often do we get these kinds of weeks!
I made a little in SDS and REW-sold today. Thanks for getting me off the porch BTW.

Good sell on DTO-
Had you considered taking the other side of that trade-?
EUM- Has made a 15% up move in a few days- Today's price was higher after yesterday's rally attempt, but it's an inside bar and that suggests indecision-

I'm skeptical - I expect another oversold bounce is equally likely based on some smidgen of positive news as opposed to another onslaught of wide selling-

Chart wise I see 2 prior days pushing $35.50 , and today not coming close- I think we go sideways for a bit starting tomorrow-
And there's no telling what "NEWS" event will come out mid day any day and sway the market-

You have a good macro sense of what should move the market - And I think you have a quicker short term approach which is necessary these days....Do you access your trades intraday?
Taking trades in this high volatility market- Look at Tuesday- a 600 pointy day and closing up 400 and then selling off hard today-
I don't expect this down momentum to keep going at this pace- Frankly, I'm afraid to make a sizeable jump in here in any direction, but I think I'd look to see an oversold reaction. I think the risk of going long EUM here is high, unless you're day trading. And even then. Dow is down over 2ooo pts-

As I try to get a handle on what the chart says and what the news says, and compress it into a few hours in the pm, I find I struggle to find viable trades that I can make tighter risk trades.
At These momentum levels- can't jump in here unless I was trading real time- I'm still an End Of Day Trader.
Gold trade BTW- If you're in it, trail stops just uder the daily price on a portion of your position- JMHO-

Believing we are well oversold, I also went long at the close in my IRA with monies I had held in money markets and decided to buy at these levels.

What are your thoughts on starting a new thread that has it's focus on ETF trading? I think as a group we could focus on a narrowed ETF market, the macro influences, and different ways to approach the trades -

I think such a board would be beneficial for all members, and give the many an opportunity to contribute or to comment/question.

As my trading universe has narrowed to a few stocks but mostly looking at ETF's- I think an ETF focused board would be a win-win for this site- We all can have different approaches to price action, but if we are trading similar instruments, we can all benefit from the idea of different approaches to ETF trading.

I would gladly contribute-right or wrong- to such a thread-and I think it would have a wide appeal for members in general-
SD What say you guys?

[bankedout]

Aug 10, 2011 20:27:56 GMT -5 sd said:

What are your thoughts on starting a new thread that has it's focus on ETF trading? I think as a group we could focus on a narrowed ETF market, the macro influences, and different ways to approach the trades -

I think such a board would be beneficial for all members, and give the many an opportunity to contribute or to comment/question.

As my trading universe has narrowed to a few stocks but mostly looking at ETF's- I think an ETF focused board would be a win-win for this site- We all can have different approaches to price action, but if we are trading similar instruments, we can all benefit from the idea of different approaches to ETF trading.

I would gladly contribute-right or wrong- to such a thread-and I think it would have a wide appeal for members in general-
SD What say you guys?

I think it is a good idea. I only track ETFs now. I will contribute to that thread.

[sd]

Looking forward to the ETF thread-! And your sharing your input there! Hopefully the other members will find reasons to contribute as well-
I will continue to post most of my trading on this thread, particularly keeping the journal aspects focused here-
I may post some actual trade charts at both threads, but don't want that thread to be about My trading per se.
As always, this thread is open for others to chime in!
SD