SD-2024 BE PROACTIVE-STOP THE W-C-S woulda-coulda-shoulda

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TICKER SYMBOL -YOU- Why the analyst has gotten PLTR potential so wrong-With a Price target of $5.


www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQ1tyv5PYYE

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5.13.2024
Markets positive but up little -
The transfer to Schwab/TOS today has a few bugs- and a learning curve- watching a few videos from TOS- but another Optometrist appt today- for a follow up on Lolo's eye prior to the laser surgery ...next week-
Won't be trading today- until I'm comfortable placing buy and adjusting sell orders .

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5-13-2024 Futures slightly green...

Trading perspective- from Jason Leavitt's End of Week Index report:
The market is slowly getting better. This has been the case for three weeks. Our bias has been to the upside - it wasn't a strong bias - and little by little, it's firming. The indexes have bounced enough to provide a cushion; they are no longer in danger of breaking down. But we can't lower our guard. We can't allow ourselves to entirely be lured in when the environment isn't right for a lasting uptrend.

In essence, the April selling neutralized the rally off the October low, and the April-May bounce has neutralized the mini downtrend.

Traders who were overly optimistic at the end of March got a slap upside the head, and traders who got overly bearish in April got a stiff reminder the market is healthy overall and near its all-time high.

The market has neutralized. It's not overly strong or weak. Breadth has improved but isn't screaming bullish. Earnings have helped some companies but have destroyed others. This keeps risk elevated because even if you refuse to hold a position into earnings, you never know if there's a loose connection with a different company that does have earnings.

I've been out front the last few weeks arguing we need to make some adjustments to how we operate. We can't buy high with the intentions of selling higher because we're not getting much follow through. We can't hold for weeks because most moves are lasting less than five days. We have to be content shooting for smaller wins in shorter time periods because this is what the market is giving us. And we have to maintain max flexibility because it's easy to get lured into the long or short side after a string of good or bad days.

Under these conditions, I often get emails asking if this is a good time to trade. That given the challenging market, perhaps it would be better to shut it down for a while and come back when the market is more clear.

To this I say: No, don't stop; keep going.

Here are some notes from one of my talks in my Guidelines class about when is the best time to learn trading.

Right now is the best time to learn because there is no perfect market for learning.

All markets have flaws. All markets are good for teaching you something, but unfortunately, they’re also good at building bad habits.

If you start during a bull market, you’ll make money, but you’ll also develop some bad habits that won’t transfer to other conditions.

Bull markets are easy and relatively stress free. The trend is up most of the time, so you buy breakouts and dips; you add to positions and perhaps use some leverage. The problem is you grow to be lazy with managing trades. Your entries will be careless because they can be; your risk management skills will not develop. You might even get in the habit of not using stops because, why should you? Most stocks come back anyways. You can let stocks go for weeks and watch your gains grow day after day.

But then the market enters a flat period, which will expose all your bad habits. Ranges are periods of indecision, and they should not be trusted. You’re in the habit of chasing breakouts, but in a range, it’s better to buy dips, and your entries need to be more precise. You’re conditioned to hold positions for a few weeks, but with the lack of follow through in a range, you often need to take profits within a few days or risk giving everything back. You must use a stop, which you got away with not using during your bull market training because even weak positions came back.

The opposite is also true. If you learn during a range, you use tight stops, which may not be appropriate during a strong trend. You’re in the habit of taking quick profits, but in a bull market, you want to milk trades for everything they’re worth. You’re trading smaller size, because, in general, you’re more conservative. But in a bull market, you want to be more aggressive. So, if you learn during a range, you’ll build a bunch of habits that prevent you from maximizing opportunities of an uptrend.

Bear markets are a different animal, where the market tends to exhibit all types of markets at various times – ranges, followed by selloffs, followed by huge bounces, followed by more selloffs, which are then followed ranges.

So, no market is perfect because each will build certain skills which may not transfer over to a different market, and unfortunately, some bad habits, which will get you in a lot of trouble when the market changes.

Whatever the market is doing right now, just trade it. Unless you're already a great trader, and it's part of your operation to sit out from time to time when you are out of sync with the market conditions, you’ll want to use a crappy market to build your skills, so when conditions improve, you’ll be able to maximize opportunities.

Hear me out for a minute. Here’s the ideal situation...

You’ve identified your 'A' trades. You have collected hundreds of examples and created a small library to study. You have placed 50-100 trades and have learned the nuances. You know how to manage the trades and are comfortable taking losses. You also know when and where to add to positions and have sized up enough that you are emotionally able to "press the accelerator" under the right conditions. You have practiced and kept a journal and reflected on your operation.

And this is combined with...

The market is in the beginning stages of a bull market and is starting to act well. Stocks are respecting levels and moving averages. They're breaking out of patterns and holding their gains. They're following through after breaking out. They're attracting buyers on minor dips within newly-formed uptrends. Higher highs and higher lows are being made. Trading is somewhat easy. The vibe is positive. You can feel a sense of optimism in the country. People are generally happy and living their lives. There's a shortage of constant warnings.

But what are the odds everything falls into place like this? I’d say very low.

Success happens when opportunity and preparedness meet.

Don’t lose your enthusiasm if you find the current conditions to be a challenge. Use this time to build your skills, and when the market improves, you’ll be ready to go and take full advantage of the opportunities.

This is a fantastic time to learn. Any time is a fantastic time to learn.

Identify your A trades. Study the setups; collect examples; execute trades; learn the nuances. Jesse Livermore said: The game taught me the game.

There is a limit to how much you can learn at 10 o'clock at night studying charts. At some point you have to get in the arena. Execute a trade. Journal it. Reflect on it. Make a slight adjustment if needed. Then execute another one.

Build a library of examples. Nail down your trade management. Slowly start adding to winners. Practice. Build your skills and knowledge base. Get more comfortable.

And while you're doing this, don't judge yourself on whether you make money; grade yourself on whether you "did right" - good entries, the right stops, adds at the right times and levels. You'll have losing trades, and that's fine. Your goal is to use a crappy market to learn and experience and develop. And then, on the other side of the crap, when there'll be amazing opportunities, you'll be 100% ready to take full advantage.

If you sit out a bad period and wait until the conditions are better, you will under trade. You'll make money, but you won't completely knock the ball out of the ballpark.

No market is perfect for learning because all markets condition you to operate in a certain way to survive and make money, but those same skills can work against you when the market changes.

Learn trading; experience trading; grow and develop your skills; hone in on your A setup and execute enough trades to get comfortable. Then, when your trading operation is in sync with the market conditions, you’ll multiply your account.

Success happens when opportunity and preparedness meet. Get prepared now. Opportunity is coming.

Back to the market. It moved up for several months...moved down for a couple weeks...and now is moving back up. Earnings season is filled with landmines. If you prefer trading ranges, go for it. This is your kind of market. If you prefer a trend, don't shut it down. Some groups are trending, so while there may not be that steady wind at your back, there are opportunities.

Let's get to the charts. What kind of staying power does this mini uptrend have?

The Indexes

My Schwab account using TD Ameritrade has switched over to either the Schwab platform or Think or Swim.
The TOS platform is far more robust- and is used by many on the LB board. This is the platform built years ago by Tom Sossnoff and sold - Sosnoff has the TastyTrade site and platform there.

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Justin @ SMB- BAR by Bar= video #6

www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBorHOILaeQ&list=PLo5LM9g7UwibJAoDFjZTFPJqCVZoMZcO_&index=5

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5-14-2024
Markets green premkt- but wheres the catalyst?
Spy testing the April Highs, same with the Dow
QQQ's getting Close to testing the April levels
Smalls sideways,
Markets all faded yesterday after a higher open-
Ophthalmologist appt yesterday- so didn't trade- Transition to TOS somewhat problematic- Had to redo my log-in and Passwords several times- 1 log-in to Schwab, another to TOS. Had previously downloaded the TOS desktop

Spent the rest of yesterday afternoon trying different propogation techniques on the Hardy Kiwi vines.



PPI -Producer Price index- comes in Hot.
Futures all rolled over into negative territory based on the report. At least initially. @ 9:15 futures relatively flat .
Today, I will be comparing TZA/TNA





10 am price rolls over- pulls back- stop gets triggered @ 10:03
small net gain- getting familiar with this order screen at Schwab -awkward initially


Price is making a rebound here - not chasing-
10:14 am


flip to enter TZA- had to chase a bit filled $17.72- set stop $17.68
Risk is $0.04 on the positive bullish price action- will raise higher IF price cooperates.


TZA comes back and stops out


Trade 2 TZA- tightened stop quickly- lock in the gain


Flip to enter TNA long using a stop-mkt entry order


Went into TZA- got gains in TNA- lowered the buy stop to get a tighter fill than what is shown in TRADE3 ....
Judging by the slow price action at this time- TNA is downtrending- lower highs,lower lows.
TZA had a gap down open with price rebounding- but looking weak - stop $17.65 likely triggers here.

I'm not seeing a trend developing- sideways price action @ 12:00 and I've a small net gain so far today- Could treat myself to a Big Mac- so I'm heading out to un load Mulch.... until the rains roll in.

12:10 still inside- TZA looking like it's ready to make a move and fill my buy stop $17.73- stop will be set $17.68 on the fill 'breakout'
Buy stop fills- $17.70 a major support- $17.69 stop




Good trading day today! My day trades squeaked out 1/2 the gains and a 12 PM lunch trade in NVDL captured a nice gain in the afternoon- Presently, I/m holding a few swing positions, but the focus is on day trading- so I kept a tight stop on NVDL




TNA trades- I was viewing TNA on the 2 & 5Minute time frames and TZA on the 2 Minute time frame -

Pleased with my net gains in TNA trying to capture some of the swing moves-
TNA Opened @ $39.80, and Closed $39.67 for a decline of $0.13
I had several small losing trades in TNA- several should have been avoided - as well as some TZA trades-




Flat on the day in TZA

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OT-Off Topic- Kiwi Propogation
tHE GARDEN HOBBY -While we have a variety of different fruiting plants- I got interested in growing Hardy Kiwis This is year 3, and the 1st fruits are showing on one of the vines-because a friend brought me some Male flowers that I tied along side my female flowers-
Fuzzy Kiwi Male had a few flowers- and I also have fuzzy kiwi fruits developing-

Tip layering- works- but do Not try to tip layer a new growing branch into the ground- It needs to be semi hardwood - mid summer- growth- section -and leave the growing 2' + tip out of CONTACT WITH THE GROUND. I'm also using a faster draining rooting medium on the air layers- Perlite with a bit of peat moss - that was soaked in a solution of the "Root and Grow", and the excess moisture wrung out by hand-
I've seen a number of both Hardy Kiwi and Fuzzy Kiwi with newer leafs and stems touch onto the ground and then the stem blackens-
The very newest growth is very prone to doing this- I am tip layering into pots as well, but I think those stems are too green yet-
Coincidentally, I spent this pm doing some stem layering - both in pots- and also using plastic bags- and REd solo cups--
I scarify a part of the branch along side the leaf node- Leaf removed of course, apply some rooting hormone-
I use either a sandwich bag filled with rooting medium wrapped around the stem and the scarified section- Held in place with small strips of duct tape.
When done, I shield the bag from the sunlight by covering with aluminum foil to prevent the sun from overheating the bag.

Semi hardwood and 1 year old wood rooting in a sandy mix in Pots
image.png
stem layering in a pot- the leaf nodes are scarified with a knife blade, rooting hormone to be applied- and a sandy mix with perlite & peat will be used once the vine hardens off a bit more in a few weeks or a month .

image.png
Pot is split up one side- stem is guided through a small square cut out of pot down low- Duct tape ties the cut pot back together- A compost type mix with organics is placed in the bottom of the pot BELOW the stem- Once the stem hardens a bit more, a sandy, porous mix of sand, peat, and Perlite will be added to cover the stem-
Mix is soaked in Root and Grow solution, and stem sections scarified along nodes
Rooting hormone -Clonex gel- is applied to the scarified sections.

AIR LAYERING-
2 methods I use- Plastic bags- and Plastic or styrofoam cups.
On the older woody stem- from last year- a new shoot has emerged from a node-
I scarify the stem along the sides of the shoot , add rooting hormone- I make 3 side cuts if the stem is projecting out sideways- 2 if the new shoot is vertical.
Again, a rooting hormone, sandy mix dampened slightly with root & grow -
(Not too wet- no excess moisture) Slip the cup over the stem with slits where the stem projects through.
Duct tape the cut sections closed once the cup is in place-
Add soil mix- cover top with a plastic sandwich bag - to keep from drying out-
cover with aluminum foil to prevent sun overheating.
image.png
View of last year stem prepped with scarification along the node where the leaf comes out- the Clonex gel is purplish in color- applied with a Q-tip -Could use regular rooting powder also. Slightly dampened sandy rooting mix is placed in cup .
A Plastic bag cut around the green stem, and placed over top of cup .
Small piece of duct tape holds bag in place- can be lifted off cup to check in3-4-5 weeks for moisture if needed.
Very important- Drainage holes/slits are needed in all rooting containers.Rain water will work it's way into the mix along the stem sections. Cover with Foil.
and support the stem where needed. This stem will have cups set at each new shoot.
image.png

Plastic bag method on a vertical stem :
Needs to be this years new growth - but a hardened section- not the soft flexible tip.
I had cut back these shoots weeks earlier- as they were almost 30" to about 12"
Scarify the outer bark down to the cambium wood- Remove about a 3/4" section hgt of the outer growth- I often leave a small 1/4" wide piece of the outer skin connecting the upper and lower branch sections- but often it is told to remove the entire ring of the outer bark .
Add rooting hormone to the scarified section-
image.png


Plastic sandwich baggie .
Select a strong semi hardened stem section - leave 2-3 leaves at the top-
Remove the leaves where the baggie will go below, and scarify 1 or 2 nodes-
Rooting hormone applied.
Split the side of a sandwich bag- completely through the top zipper section that can open and close the bag.
Open the zipper apart- wrap the zipper section around both sides of the stem below the scarification. Snap the zipper section back together-
Take a small piece of duct tape- 2-3", wrap it around the stem and the bottom of the baggie, and also tape the zipper at the stem.
Take another small piece of duct tape, and tape the top zipper of the baggie to prevent it from opening. .
Fill the baggie with the rooting mix through the cut side that is facing upwards and around the stem.. Once enough rooting medium is in the bag, seal off the top of the cut side with a piece of tape, and potentially tape a section of the top of the baggie to the stem to prevent it from sliding down.
You can push the soil mix in the baggie from the outside, and the baggie does not have to be 100% filled- Fold the baggie over onto itself to ensure soil mix is around the stem. With several 6" long strips of duct tape, tape the empty sections of the baggie around the remaining soil mix.
Puncture a few small slits to allow water to drain out of the bag's bottom side-
If needed support the baggie with string or surveyor ribbon to a support, a section of the plant etc to prevent the weight from breaking the branch.
Cover with foil- very important to keep the sun from heating up the bag- Unwrap the foil 3-5 weeks- to see if roots are developing- During this process, only allow 2 new leaves to form on the top of the plant- Pinch out any other growth to force the plant to grow the roots.
- Add moisture as necessary during the rooting process by a small slit in the top of the bag to check if the plant needs more moisture- Until new roots form, it is unlikely to require added moisture- a diluted mixture of Root and Grow helps the roots grow better.
Once the baggie is full of roots, cut from the lower stem, repot in a protected area
without direct sun and watch for signs of distress- Remove some of the upper leaves and cut back a section of the upper stem if the plant wilts or shows signs of shock.
image.png

image.png
image.png
Fun to experiment!
I have had some limited success using all of these methods- last year.
I did not have success with the cuttings taken last year and set in pots-
I think that the key is to not try to root new flexible wood and to not have an overly wet mix- and use a more porous mix than peat alone- thus the perlite and sand are additions I am trying this year.
🫠

A bit of excitement yesterday- Frisco dog started barking-agitated at a concrete block at the Patio-
2' Copperhead snake went into one of the concrete blocks we had under a plant container-
trapped the snake in the block by slipping a plastic garbage bag over the block- and rolled the block into a trash can -
Righted the can, dispatched the snake with a flat shovel.

copperheads reportedly will be more active this year, venturing into trees as the 17 year Cicada cycle may see cicadas emerging .

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5-15-2024- Wednesday-
Futures mixed - Nas in the red slightly 7 am.
cpi REPORT CAME IN WEAKER THAN EXPECTED- FEARS WERE THE cpi WOULD SHOW MORE OF AN INCREASE-
Markets Rallied today!

As Jase pointed out in the pm report- look at the change in what's leading the markets-
Utilities!






DELL named a top pick by MS for it's server growth and data storage for 2024


TNA 2 trades- sm gains on the TR1- Partial small gain on TR2 + a net larger gain on the raised stop.


TZA pm entry


stop at B.E.




1:35 pm undecided price


1:45 stop $17.10 size 150
cost basis $17.09



Catching up- made multiple trades

JUSTIN -BAR BY BAR SESSION 9

www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zFEja3_R3w&list=PLo5LM9g7UwibJAoDFjZTFPJqCVZoMZcO_&index=9

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5.16.2024 Big Rally day yesterday due to the CPI perception - but that was counger to the PPI report the day prior- Markets rallying but smalls didn't participate with as much vigor as Semis and Tech.
WMT beat earnings yesterday- but they have noted weakness underlying the lower end consumer is seeing pressures.

DE cuts the forecast-
Biden has announced a 100% tariff on Chinese car imports- essentially doubling the cost of those vehicles-
This is an effort to keep US Mfg's able to try to compete.

Futures flat but positive @ 8 am- Big gains yesterday.
I was trying to be nimble yesterday and had a fill on the inverse Tza a few minutes before the Close- with the intention to sell @ 3:59 + but was too slow to get out before the buzzer - Holding a small 50 share position this am that I'll need to manage at the Open- I'll be selling it at any lower Open- which is likely what occurs.

Intentionally holding only a few swing positions- in the IRA- and saw all gaining this week-

Googl,META,BUG,IWL,JOET,MGK,XMMO- Stops can now be set at B.E.


jOBS REPORT THIS AM

fUTURES reD-
tza CARRYOVER in profitable territory -Stp $17.18.
Just managing this small position this am




Cost basis $17.02- Stop lowered- to $17.03 vs $17.18. Small position (50) so a stop triggering here would not be much of a gain on this position. The $17.20 level holding for 3 bars on the 5 M chart .



MISSED THE tna ENTRY- SET A LMT BUY $40.58 SMALLER SIZE AS i NEED A $0.20 STOP TO GET BELOW THE SWING LOW TODAY IN tna

10.24 FILLED ORDER.

STOP IS RAISED TO UNDER THE SWING LOW WHEN PRICE TURNED BACK HIGHER.


snap pullback - stop in TNA will likely trigger



I set a counter entry Buy stop above the downtrend line for TZA if the TNA trade fails
TZA filled

TNA failed loss-0.03


12:55 pm TNA showing strength- TZA red bars stops raised



Buy stop order for TNA in place 1.09 pm


Lesson time- TNA filled- on a higher move-
TZA pulled back and looked to be ready to fail.
I changed my stop order to a mkt sell @ B.E. and price immediately reversed higher to a new high!


EOD- sold into the very close 3:59 on a late entry I don't think I have shown -

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5.17.2024 MKTs flat- futures slightly all in the RED 6:45 am.

I'll copy from my trades yesterday in the thread I posted on LB-
These are actual small position trades as I really focus on bar by bar price action-
Sometimes I lose the perspective- of the bigger picture when doing so-
My carry over trade from Wed in TZA position I took at the Wednesday close would have been a all day winning trade-


















On Perceived weakness on the active bar- that was initially red and looked ready to head lower, I changed the stop and made a Market sell- That very same bar turned into a breakout bar.
This is a great example of not seeing the Forest because I got so focused on the tree....








Taking periodic screenshots- and trying to add comments as to my thinking at that moment...
Useful to review and look back -in hindsight- we have 20-20 vision- easy to 'see' what we w-c-s done.
My biggest single error yesterday was not allowing the trade to develop-and made a reaction decision on seeing a red bar start- and reacting -as it followed a prior red bar-
Price was holding above the rising 34 & 50 emas - but pressuring both.
The MACD -although it had made a downturn- was still well above the 0.0 line.
Slow stochastic was still above the 50 level and rising.
Understanding that the indicators still supportive of the Price is well worth being aware of.


5.17.2024 watching the open


Didn't buy at the open- TZA rising Buy-stop for a surge rebound in TNA



Buy-stp fills- wide stop $39.98
i.imgur.com/j22yJXR.png

9.53 am tna working


OE today- giving this entry room to prove itself @ 9:58 am
10 AM






Will allow this trade to stop out on the entry stop- Small learning exercise -just 25 shares at Risk


TNA making a HH


The Opportunity was for a sell to net a +$0.30 gain- This is a small position size learning/exercise trade- so I'm wanting to allow this to develop. As I'm writing this, TZA started strong out of the gate, but since has put in a lower high and a lower low.
Conversely , TNA has put in HH and HL-



SPEC TSLL- TSLA long leveraged. Bought the Low of the basing consolidation-
Stop Risks $0.05 on 250 shares (-$12.50 +~-)

11 AM TNA FAILS TO PRINT A HH- fades below the downtrend line - prints a lower high.
Will the HL hold?


Tossing in the towel on TNA- Stop was raised to Break even after TNA put in a 3rd lower high.
TZA had bounced from the LOD open and put in a HL, and broke thru the downtrend line.
I saw 3 lower highs in TNA, and so I raised the stop to B.E. $40.21 and it filled at $40.21 @ 11:25 .



Jason video- samples of trades proposed

www.youtube.com/watch?v=0g6GiO46DLM

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tHE LB BOARD sEARCH feature is a good way to go back almost 10 years- and find out what the traders at LB were saying and how they approached the markets at that time.
I saw that Devoid had posed a question to another trader-KEZHA in 2016 and searched his name and found the explanation of his chart and his decision process.
His chart then also bears similarities with what several others present day use-
The "HOOKS" are indicators making the turn to support a change of trend may be underway- it's an early signal - particularly on a 2 M chart-
his explanation:

His chart:


The chart has 2- CCI values shown , a MACD -2-7-1 ; RSI 12; and a Williams%R.

As he explains- he looks for the 2nd hook -if the 1st hook occurs in overbought/oversold levels.
He prefers the MACD to be making the 0.0 line cross.

Notice the downtrend line that was in place

Comparing the differences- between trader Devoid- using just Stochastic and the MACD- and some of the other traders using multiple CCI time durations-
Notice that the ).0 Line cross and move higher- follows hook 2 .
HOOK 2 is the large blue bar at the green vertical line that makes a higher Close- and is above the trend line-
Since the bar CLOSE is what is the final determinate of where the indicator gets constructed- The prior bar was a lower RED bar Close- Lower than where it opened.

If you look back on the chart- at the 7:30 period, Price had made an attempt R.O.T. that failed -and the indicators all responded to the upmove of Price.

At that time, the indicators had risen from oversold territory. The Macd had made a previous move above the 0.0 line- and the 2nd move pre 7:30 saw a bullish 2nd blue bar - followed by a red bar that initially had moved above the downtrend line. That bar fails to have any upside follow thru, Price drops lower.

The Point here, is that if one is totally indicator reliant- one is going to be whipsawed numerous times - and if in a range- His comment:
And in sideways trading - nothing works - as it will give you signals galore and you will churn and chop your money to death. Hope that answers your question and good trading. Chart attached for the bullish hooks.

Also note that the bullish hook 2 signal was dependent on that bar making a higher Close- Otherwise, if the bar closed lower- the 'HOOK" would have seen a downside bend . After the bull signal on Hook 2, Price goes sideways and lower for several bars, with a pullback almost to the rising new trend line- Of course, the trend line was drawn using the 2 bars that identified an uptrend was underway.
As a matter of fact, Note that the bullish signal bar was followed by indicators weakening and price failing to make a higher high for 3 more bars.
the indicators had all dipped lowed on the price action.

Another commentary and chart using the 4M and 2M

ES Update - Chart and Commentary - Kezha, 11:50 01/26/2016

Multiple reasons to exit the long I was not in - not enough reasons to go short. Other reasons to stay in. The 2 long term indicators remain above their medians. Considering this long position is WAY UP - I would not exit and let it run. On the other hand, there are enough double hooks to have exited that trade an gone flat. That Attached Chart shows everything. Right now the market is sucky !!! Yes Rat, that's a technical term, I think...I would exit that long if the long term indicators break their medians and go flat and wait for a better set up. (Chart)
I like the way that you use your longer term indicators for bias. - Scotty, 12:24 01/26/2016

The 2 charts- notice the differences in the 2 & 4 M signals.

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5.20.2024 Futures in the green-
No trading this am- LOLO going to have a cataract surgery this AM

[sd]

Tuesday 5-21-2024- Futures flat- AM headlines- Asian shares drop -2%, Europe slips-

Jaime Dimon- JPMorgan suggests that his stock is at too high a level for them to initiate buybacks-
Mike Wilson- a long time bear that got it all wrong- at least up through this rally- had called for a sharp sell-off but markets instead had rallied after only a shallow pullback.
Kolanovic- at JPM also believes markets will correct to $4200 for the SPY!
JPMorgan and its 4,200 end-year target. And in our call of the day, a team led by the bank’s closely watched strategist, Marko Kolanovic, makes clear he’s not budging. Yet.

Late last year, the strategist pounded the table over uncompelling risk-reward for stocks, warned in early 2024 of stagflation risks, and in April of a correction not finished only for Wall Street to resume climbing. He was also wrongly bullish in 2022 and bearish in 2023.

In a note to clients on Monday, Kolanovic admitted that a “negative stance on equities has hurt the performance of our multiasset portfolio over the past year.” The bank has partly made up for that via a commodities overweight and high cash and fixed-income yields, he added.

“However, with very high equity valuations (as well as tight credit spreads and low levels of volatility), we do not see equities as attractive investments at the moment and we don’t see a reason to change our stance,” Kolanovic said.

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The strategist believes “restrictive rates” will stay as such for longer, as inflation readings, on average, have disappointed to the upside.

“With growth and inflation hinting at moderation, the challenge becomes whether central banks’ willingness to tolerate a long path back to target-inflation is enabling an easing in financial conditions that short-circuits the soft-landing,” he said, adding that they see odds of “boil-the-frog” and soft-landing scenarios at 45% and 55%, respectively.

Also, not good for stocks is the fact that both investor positioning and valuations are lofty, lower-income consumers are clearly feeling stress and geopolitical uncertainty is at a decades high, he said.

“We don’t think that narrow themes like AI chips can compensate for all of those traditional market challenges that historically worked against the cycle,” Kolanovic said.

Hence, the bank is sticking to a defensive tilt — underweight equities and credit versus overweight in commodities and cash, the latter of which typically refers to short-term instruments such as 3-month bills.


NVDA reports tomorrow- and those earnings expectations are undoubtedly high- and the markets-tech and semis in particular- will likely react depending on whether the earnings beat expectations-Almost seems likely that the expectations are well priced already- and will it be a buy the rumor, sell the news event?

ETHE- the ETF is up large on possible ratification.
The Dems saw themselves positioned thru Biden and the SEC Gensler as being bearish on crypto- personally, I haven't ventured there- gbtc,bito,bitb,ibit,
Doubting thomas are I....
Setting up for a day trade or two today-
Futures were barely in the green , but all are now in the Red @ 9 am...

features.financialjuice.com/2024/05/21/morning-juice-us-session-prep-90/



very tight stop triggers. 9:52 am - stop within $0.01 of the prior consolidation lows






tHE SQQQ trades stop out for a small net loss-
TQQQ entered on a buy stop. Position is now profitable- Split the stops. One to net a partial gain, the other just above entry cost .
Will be spending time outside today- will periodically check this position.

SMR - a tight Buy stop filled - giv ing this a bit of room- Small nuclear power ....


Daily chart shown by Jase @ LB. Note the base lows earlier- Nom $7.15 as 'support' stop just below. .
Sharpened 5 chains- and going to cut up some firewood this pm- Will check every hour or so...

Jason blog on the metals that he has profiled @ LB
blog.leavittbrothers.com/?p=16369
Raised stops on TQQQ, Buy stop fills in SQQQ- Holding both positions here-




3 pm SQQQ stops out for a -$0.03 loss. Sideways price action- Still holding TQQQ with raised split stops.


SMR STOP ELEVATED ON Price moving higher


SMR weakening - I raised the stop to just below the $7.25 level .
The pullback held above that level and, as Tech trade found some Momentum this late pm, SMR made a bit of an upside move.
Not wanting to hold the entire position overnight- sold 1/2 @ 3:59 For $7.405 and kept 1/2 looking for a bullish continuation tomorrow.

[sd]

5.22.20 Futures mixed premkt... Nas slightly green- S&P ,Dow in the Red.

NVDA reports after the Bell! That will set the tone for the Tech/semi segment performance.
The Hype around AI and it's applications and impact are profound- and Why the market has generated this rally this far into the year.

One of The reasons that one can be bearish/concerned looking forward:


SMR swing is showing premarket trading near the Closing price- Stop was set to lose $0.05 on the trade- Selling 1/2 for a net + $0.12 gain would potentially allow me to widen the stop to $7.17 for a B.E. on the position, but giving the trade some latitude if we have a drop on the open. Will adjust this stop


sqqq.tqqq 10.25 AM

SMR stops out and is volatile afterwards- missed the big surge higher.

Example of Prof D front running the indicator confirmation-
Don't know if he held when price came back below his entry- really volatile activity.


NVDA beats on all metrics. 10 for 1 stock split June 6

Beast posts a 1 Second chart on NVDA's after hours earnings- Algo's sweep in


NVDA beat on almost all fronts and-importantly- the forward guidance was solid .....The demand for AI- and the GPU's and cloud space needed is solidly there-
The question is where will the extra needed power come from to run these higher application GPU's ?

[sd]

5.23.2024
With NVDA's beat and higher price move in the after hours- and a future 10:1 stock split- is it too late to step in? Good question. Perhaps on the split alone is a good enough reason to Buy in advance..

or just the SMH to spread the Risk...NVDA holding a lion's share weighting in the sector index.

Yesterday I spent more time on the LB board documenting the earlier trading-Yesterday was a flat day waiting for NVDA and then the FED minutes came out and rattled the markets , prompting the afternoon sell-off.
Barron's take-a-way :
Fed Worries. Stocks have had a stellar run ever since Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell seemed to take the possibility of interest rate hikes off the table. That was the clear takeaway from his post Fed-meeting press conference On May 1. Stocks went on a tear shortly after Powell's comments. Heading into today, the S&P 500 was up 5.7% in May. The Nasdaq Composite was up 7.5%.

Given the setup, it's no surprise that investors were slightly unnerved by the today's release of minutes from the Fed's last meeting, which took place from April 30 to May 1. "Various participants mentioned a willingness to tighten policy further should risks to inflation materialize in a way that such an action became appropriate," the minutes stated, somewhat in contrast to Powell's own statement.

Stocks were largely flat heading into the minutes release. They quickly fell from there, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 202 points, or 0.5%. Not exactly a disaster, but it's a reminder that markets remain vulnerable to inflation fears.

Barron's Megan Leonhardt has a detailed explanation of the minutes here, including this detail:

The minutes did show that most policymakers continued to expect inflation would moderate “over the medium term.” However, officials also believed it would take longer than previously anticipated for them to gain greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward the central bank’s 2% inflation target.

Beyond the macro news, there were lots of moving parts for the market on Wednesday, including earnings disappointment from Target, growing concerns about bird flu, and arguably the most important report of earnings season (more on that one below).


DJIA: -0.51% to 39,671.04
S&P 500: -0.27% to 5,307.01
Nasdaq: -0.18% to 16,801.54

The Hot Stock: First Solar +18.7%
The Biggest Loser: Target -8.0%

Best Sector: Technology +0.2%
Worst Sector: Energy -1.9%

Because the markets are so vulnerable to things such as a Fed comment, it may present an opportunity for the more nimble traders-Devoid- Prof D- @ the LB board- jumped into TQQQ yesterday- as it dropped hard and fast- and he entered just as price had made a possible upside reaction move to being potentially oversold. - front running his preferred 5 Minute chart & indicator signals.
I have seen him 'front run' and take an entry ahead of his 'confirmation' criteria-on the 5M chart-
In this example from yesterday, he absolutely nailed an early buy as the bar at that moment started to make a reversal higher- following a swing low bar that had a DEEPER LOW AND A DOJI Close.
I also note on this chart-in RED- the blue price bar that appeared ready to reverse the downtrend @ 1:55 pm. It followed several red bars basing, the blue bar closing near the high-above the preceding bars. This caused the stochastic- which had flattened on the red bars basing, to turn and 'Hook up".
Similarly, the 3 ema had turned up higher, but was still well away from crossing the 8 ema- and the 8 was well away from the 21.
The MACD was clearly not suggesting an entry as the black fast line stayed pointing downwards.
Similarly, the 3 blue bars 2:05-2:15 suggested a base was being made - all higher than the 2 pm WRB-Wide Ranging Bar that had a modestly higher Close. The stochastics were uptrending, but the MACD was still in Decline, the MACD-H (histogram bars) were improving- but no 'hook or turn on the macd fast line.
It was the 2:45 bar-opened at the prior bar's Close and only had a slight dip lower, the Stochastic had cycled lower, and the prior bars were blue- open and closes were a sideways consolidation.
The MACD had flattened, and was starting to turn slightly higher when the bullish price action bar @ 2:45 caused it to "hook up". Notice that the MACD did not cross the 0.0 line until the following bar. -On this 5 Minute chart. The 3 ema would have just been making an upside hook when the entry was made.
Several charts -the 5M; the Price invisible, and perhaps the 3,2,1M charts using the same settings as the 5.









tHE 3 mINUTE CHART- faster time frames bring the indicators closer to the price action

tHE 2m CHART-NOTICE THAT not only the 3/8 ema, also stochastics, but the MACD as well made an early cross @ 2:10 - Psar as a trailing buy stop would have been effective as an entry- if set at the prior closing bar- and not on the active bar. A Psar Buy signal was generated by price action @ 1:58 that would have failed- Psar also is too wide as an initial stop-loss IMO- Have to protect the entry with a tighter stop. psar often does a good job once it closes in tighter to the actual price- might want to lag by 1 psar.
PSAR ILLUSTRATED - in a sideways consolidation, psar can give multiple whipsaws.
In the chart shown with psar -in the sideways price action- a better exit would have been on the 3 downcrossing the 8.

Know that PSAR is Parabolic Stop and Reverse-- so PSAR above a declining price is suggesting to be short -not long.







WELLB ISSUES!

[sd]

EOD- Well issues this am-- filters quickly getting clogged up by a fine silty sediment from the well.
Thought we had a possible collapse- dirt sitting on top of the pump- that's about 120' down.
Changed out the filters but elected to determine if there had been a collapse-
Fortunately, the pump lifted up easily- so no blockage on top- We set up a section of scaffold around the well with a plank on top. When I had changed out pumps `15 or 20 years ago, I had prudently also changed out to the heavy 1" pvc piping- that clamped onto the pump- I also attached a 1/4" galvanized cable to the pump, and taped it periodically to the pipe and brought it out thru the well cap.
Turned out to be a relatively simple process-The well cap has 4 bolts that had tightened the rubber seal under the cap to the sides of the well- That took about 30 minutes to get loose and lifted off- I was able to lift the pump up 5' or so by hand, and we secured the cable to the scaffold- Cut the pipe
and tossed the 5' piece, trip to the Hardware store for a pvc 1" barb to thread fitting as the pipe fitting was severely corroded- had to go back for a 2nd barb fitting- as i failed to slide the well cap on the lower pipe before making the fit up - Dumb- 30 minutes later and picked up lunch fajitas next door to the hdwr- Got it put back together- tightened up with extra teflon tape the fittings as we had a small leak-initially- and Voila! Back in business. Will order a spin-down screen mesh 1000 filter to install at the well housing that should capture a lot of the small sediment before it reaches the house-
They are designed to open a valve and flush them clean- Easy to do.

Good day to not try to take long positions - NVDA held it's gains but markets ended up giving back today.




Beast @ LB posted a chart for me this am, following some discussion we had yesterday-
At 1st glance, his charts seem difficult to read compared to the typical charts- but he is a very competent and successful trader-




WOW- looking at today's price action- With NVDA's great earnings Beat- Look at this strong market Open after yesterdays sell-off .. Price gapped open much higher than the Sell-off Close yesterday- where all of my swing positions terminated.

What a bunch of CRAP is being dished out to those thinking to invest- much less be trading here-
Markets made a High Open this am only to see Price immediately drop to a series of sell-out bars.
A Bit of 10 am consolidation, and then the markets try to rally @ 11 am- dbl top- and the sell-off takes over into the Close. Notice that the trailing psar would have nailed a good buy-stop entry - had 1 false try.