SD-2024 BE PROACTIVE-STOP THE W-C-S woulda-coulda-shoulda

[sd]

4.30.2024 Tuesday- Futures all slightly in the RED premarket pre 7 am...
Small caps chart- -looked to be trying to make a higher high- but today's open takes the markets lower....

002 9:40 THE BEARS ARE LEADING-


Long TQQQ- stop $55.35. @ 10:10 price has not developed an uptrend. Starting to roll .
[/img]https://i.imgur.com/IhIpgoV.png

10:15 am - had a pullback that almost triggered the stop-and a recovery attempt.
The low o0f that price red bar was $55.35- stop didn't trigger. That was a few cents below the prior red bar swing at @9:40 .
Initial order was a buy 10 @ 9:47- Then added 30 on a buy-stop $ 55.60.


Stop is triggered 10:27 am- Done for the day -$11 loss on this trade-
Azure order to pick up this pm- and yard/garden/leaf mulch needs to continue-

eod- GOT A LOT DONE- Azure order picked up- a lot of mulch spread

Heres how TQQQ performed after I stopped out and left the computer.

AMZN beat on earnings- pot stocks rallying on proposed legislation coming out of Washington ...
Fed tomorrow @ 2pm-












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[sd]

O.T.- Kiwi pollination- Hardy Kiwis are smooth skinned and grape-like in size-
Fuzzy Kiwis are the fuzzy fruit with a green pulp and black seeds-

A fellow craigslist shopper contacted me and he has a 12+ year old Male kiwi flowering-
He wanted several Fig branches, and brought me a bag full of mALE flower BUDS THAT MANY WERE IN FULL BLOOM.
i tied several of these to female Kiwi clusters, enclosed with a plastic bag- shook vigorously -
My Male plants are just starting to demonstrate some flower buds developing on the Fuzzy Kiwi-
No buds seen yet on the Hardy Kiwi that is now in year 3 growth. Hardy kiwi Anna has some flowering -MSU has not shown flowering buds-
Meader Male also not yet flowering- but all have a lot of prolific green growth- adequate Sun.

[sd]

5-1-2024 Futures in the RED with 3 hours to go- correction continues.



Jason @ LeavittBrothers posted the seasonality charts-
April was down -4% - but often during election years





Why it's prudent to not hold thru earnings-
Markets often price in at a higher valuation on perceived good momentum.
SMCI reported an earnings disappointment last night- and will Open lower today-
Present premarket pricing suggests Price will drop over -$100.00 or -12%


How will NVDA hold up today?


Semi sector



The short/long 3x







""

COMMON SENSE ADVICE - From the LB board.


SQQQ POSITION -STOP Under today's open low $12.04- Mkts again look undecided-




9:46 am- SQQQ still in consolidation mode- sideways- Came back down to $12.05


PMi comes in @ 50- 49.9 expected. lowest reading in past months.



10 am- trying to get higher


10:43- considered raising the stop- but elected to leave it at $12.04- Under the swing low of the day-
Working outside today- will check this trade periodically.

@ 12:30- came in & see that the Trade is barely moving-
The initial stop just $0.01 below the open low- worked-
The fact that I was patient , and didn't jump the stop up to save a few dollars on that 2nd swing pullback- turns out that was a saving move- At this point, the FED will be on board at 2 pm- in a 1.5 hour- and I cannot sit and watch- So, I'm raising the stop to
$12.10- just below that 11:44 swing low.
A 2nd note about that 11:00 red bar- that would have triggered a stop $0.01 under the base blue bars low.
The dip below that base was intentional- to trigger tight stops.



vik ipo Openedabove it's range IPO high-
Jumped in and bought with a limit 2 M in- sold on 3rd bar raised stop-loss triggered

1:29 pm

EOD:

1:09 stop tightened to $12.14- Risk is now $0.01 less slippage.


SQQQ STOP TRIGGERS FOR A NET -$0.58 CENT LOSS. That was the total loss- not per share


Busy day- Closed in the Green- Carrying an AAPL short- AAPD overnight-
Winning trades today in TSLQ, TNA, AAPD....
Tried a BNKU long- and got whipsawed as Powell was talking- took a loss on that one.
GOOGL went long- I let it ride and it stopped out on a tight stop-
I bought it wrong-already had moved-


So- The markets were all poised to react-in one direction-or the other -when Powell got on this afternoon-

a lot of initial volatility- chop around- Profits exceeded losses again today- but I missed getting on board the big surge higher while powell talked-
I've been trying to focus on 1 trade at a time- until a break-even stop is in place- but today offered so much day trade potential- but I couldn't hold the width of those volatile bars on a pullback-

Here's the snapshots of the indexes initial positive reaction to Powell this pm - and notice how all of the wind left the sails - on every index.

fINANCIALS -XLF

Semis

SPY

QQQ'S

DOW


Notice any similarities in the Powell rally?
The fade in all of them saw a Close near the Low of the Day-

Pity those that got suckered in thinking this was the bottom and time to BUY!
The total fade of the upmove does not bode well...


3 major indexes- look Freakin almost bar by bar identical- Machines are doing the trading - the retail investors are the prey-

[sd]

The Fed statement:
Here is the FOMC Statement.

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion. The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.

The two key statements (in my opinion) are:

Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.

The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.

End of story. The Fed will not lower the overnight rate until it's obvious inflation is dropping. Period. And this could continue to take a while.

[sd]

5.2.2024 A quick look at premarket pricing- and the indexes are all in the green- but 3 hours yet to the open-
Why wake up so darn early? Should receive 2 Ken's Red today.... but that's not out for an early delivery...

I carried overnight AAPD - with a small cushion in gains-at yesterday's Close- but premarket is showing to be in the RED with a -$13 value.
AAPL has been in a decline /downtrend since Dec 2023 high $198.00 . Each recent report has not met the Street's expectations, and seeing the way it was also closing - down hard- $169.30 after rallying intraday- and this after it had a big gap up 4-29-


During that time- the inverse- AAPD has been trending higher-
Comparing the 2 charts together- And with AAPL failing to go to a higher Close after the gap up 4-29 - I would expect it to go lower still based on the following lower price action the past 2 days.


However, the stochastic on the AAPD chart is not giving a hook higher , despite price rising the past 2 days . My entry $22.93.

As i view the present pre market pricing - $22.86 -

Viewing the 5 M chart- I see that $22.72 was the pullback yesterday @ 3:45- I will set my stop $22.70 - Risk is now $0.23 on this swing trade. $23.00/100


AAPD stops out for a larger drop -
This site is having issues this am -
TQQQ buy at the Open -stopped out immediately
SQQQ buy-stop entry fills as it moves out of the consolidation-




9:56 and waiting for the 10 am decision.
stops tightened higher .

TZA- split the positions here- Raised stop triggers- net gains on 1/2- remaining 1/2 stop raised to above break even - now is raised to be just below the pullback low $20.34


stops triggered- net gains.


SQQQ stops triggered small net gains- - w-c-s- have sold 1/3 into the early momo.


Heading out for an Optomotrist appt.

[sd]

5.3.2024 Futures well into the green for today's open- A weaker jobs report favors the Fed's outlook to support an eventual rate cut.
AAPL big beat- big -huge stock buy back- but lower revenues...

How the indexes closed yesterday

how they open today




lly base entry -early


SPXU NOTICE THE 10 AM REVERSALS- SIMILAR IN THE MAJOR INDEXES.


LLY WENT INITIALLY HIGHER- I didn't take gains- w-c-s- on part of the position- hoping to get a much higher reaction move-
about to get stopped out here.

LLY @ 10:40 - 2nd touch of the base low - Perhaps it gets a 2nd wind here- or breaks below the round number -
On this expensive a stock, I'm holding 10 shares with a small net Risk -0.21%

Stop is triggered -


SPXU initially went higher- tightened the stop by 1/2- out $35.27



Internet interruptions 10:45 am



That was too Close! SWtop almost was triggered- The stop gave a tad bit of leeway under that 2nd green bar- base consolidation low



The 2nd entry was late- I wasn't monitoring the charts for a bit- and when I came back - LLY had made a red bar consolidation- over a 15 minute period-
and then had 2 blue bars- the 2nd a tight blue bar- that would have presented an excellent entry buy-stop- If one didn't buy inside the consolidation base.


12:20 pm Stop was widened to $733.70






1/2 OF THE POSITION lly (10 SHARES TOTAL) STOP TRIGGERS TO LOCK IN GAINS $740.40



Split the stops- Trailed a tight stop on 5 shares- to lock in the gains and erase the loss from the am trade-
The remaining stop will trail at the 34 ema.... is in profitable territory.
Ended up locking in small gains for the day- LLY and TNA winning trades today- SPXL 1 loser and i small gain.
got out of the hole though!

[sd]

Good weekend 5-4-2024-
Got a lot done today- Saturday - Planted both Ken's Red Hardy Kiwis with a trip to the County center- bought a load of compost- and mixed into both planting beds-
Got the Monstera Deliciosa repotted as well today- using a 3" deep reservoir system in the pot- works well in larger containers with greater demands for available water- Like this process- may write about it at some time- Perhaps Tomorrow if the heavy rains we badly need actually show up.

In Trying to answer a LB members issue with Stockcharts somehow altering his normal multi time frame charts to be different- I hadn't seen any changes per se....
But in trying to understand his problem, and to find a solution- I found an alternative potential that I may use myself-

Stock charts Extra members can have multiple chartlists- - so one can easily develop a single chart list of everything they are focused on-for trading that day- and, by copying that initial chart list- let's assume it's a Daily chart- over to different duplicate lists -where one will modify the chart list to a different time frame, and copy back to be included in the original Daily list- now showing sequentially different time frame charts.

copying the posts from the LB board here- I totally like this concept of using 2 or 3 lists with multiple time frame charts and using them side by side - potentially, one could have a combination of 2- possibly 3 -charts on screen at the same time...
Take this to the logical extension- Have 3 charts on screen - Perhaps 2 favor the Long entry, while the 3rd chart has an eye on the Inverse- short trade - I like this concept- It works well on a 34" monitor- wish I had the curved version-
Saw at Costco a 47" curved screen- $1,000 -Pricey ...but the curved screen helps.


This may not be the exact answer you are looking for-but may offer a workable solution. Easy process though. May help someone else looking to organize multiple time frame charts in one sequential chart list for easy scrolling... I take the SC Daily list- with my selected charts- and copy it to a ' new' list- call it Duplicate list 1 hour, and then to a Duplicate list 15 minutes, and a duplicate list 5 minutes.-and even a Duplicate list 1,2 and 3 minute if I choose. Time frames are whatever you prefer. I go to the 1st chart in the Duplicate list- it will be seen as a daily chart- I change the time frame on that chart to my desired 1 Hour time frame - At the very bottom of that same chart, I select under the Chartlists Heading - and Click on the "Apply Style to All" - This changes on the charts on the Duplicate list to that time frame- I then go up to the Edit function-on that list- and click on the Select All button at the upper left of the chart list- This activates the 5 buttons to the right- 1st button is Trash- 2nd button is COPY- Select the 2nd button , and Copy this newly changed Chartlist back to your original list- . Do the same with the other Duplicate lists- and the charts will all be available to view in multiple time frames as you scroll down thru your original list. They also have means - Candle Glance , Gallery view etc to modify multiple charts on a single view- haven't used them Also- I'm using the Sharp Chart selection and Not the ACP. I haven't seen the issue you are describing- and so I will see if what I recommended above still works as I've used it in the past. good luck- frustrating when something simple gets unnecessarily more complex. - KNewt1, 20:42 05/04/2024
It took 5 minutes for me to Copy to duplicate lists and change the time frames to 5 different settings- and copy back to the original list- You could then make a copy of the completed list with the multiple time frame charts- and- if you have the screen real estate- the chart on the left- you could have at a faster time frame- and the right hand list- you could have the chart with a faster time frame -side by side - and simply by scrolling one chart or the other- you could quickly go from Weekly-Daily- hourly- minute etc. - Sample is AAPL 5 & 15 side by side using 2 duplicate lists. - KNewt1, 22:13 05/04/2024

[sd]

Monday 5.6.2024 Futures all green @ 7 am


Gallery view -support page article with video
support.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=other-tools:gallery-view

Gallery view allows users to build a chart list with 4 different views you don't have to use the standard views-
The video makes it easily understood-
I'll be using the Gallery view with a couple of different settings- possibly the 1 Minute, 3 minute, 5 minute, and 15 minute
for day trading .

For swing trading- perhaps the 5min,15 min, 1 hour, daily.

As an investor- I'd likely use the 15 Min, 1 hour, Daily, and Weekly-


Candle glance is a chart setting where you can view a dozen or so charts on the same page.
This is a quick way to compare a basket of stocks.










RSI rolling over- stop raised $38.42



Stop was triggered- 1 stop remains $38.05- which likely fills at my net


Bought 50 on the Hook and Price upmove off the fast time frame.
stop was initially below the swing low $38.08 but was raised to $38.14 as Price moves up

11:50- trade is working- stops split on the 50 into 2 -



12:00 the high stop triggers- Price fails to make that HH needed -
Perhaps we settle into a sideways range?



back in - 100 shares new- and 33 shares wide stop from the initial am entry




EOD-


At the EOD- Netted a series of relatively small gains overall, and overall a few losing trades- but ended in the Green on the day.
The Process - as I try to document here- is sometimes quite rapid on the faster time frame charts-
The goal is to get the better earlier & winning entry- that's Close to a well determined Point of Failure. where the stop needs to be placed.
Today's entry was done viewing price action and jumping in as price made the upswing after initially selling off from a gap higher open.

Many trades taken today-

9:38:11 B-100 MKT $38.0299 =

9:53:37 S-33 $38.30 MKT NET GAIN + $0.27 = + $8.91
10:47:27 S-33 STOP- $38.42 NET GAIN + $0.39 = + $12.87

11:17:55 B-50 MKT $ 38.205

12:02 S-25 $ 38.44 STOP NET gAIN $+ $0.24 = + $6.00
12:19 S-25 $ 38.37 sTOP NET GAIN $+ $0.16 = + $4.00

12:30: B-50 $ 38.41 MKT
12:34 S-50 $ 38.34 STP nET LOSS - $0.07 = -$3.50

12:51: B-100 $38.33 MKT
13:04 S-33 $38.44 MKT NET GAIN $ 0.11 = +$ 3.63
13:09 S-33 $38.38 STP NET GAIN $ 0.05 = + $1.65
13:11 S-33 $38.37 STP NET GAIN $0.04 = + $1.32

13:22 B-100 $38.45 BUY STP
14:37 S-33 $38.47 STOP GAIN $0.02 = +$0.66
14:39 S-33 $38.44 STOP LOSS - $0.01 = - $0.33
14:39 S-33 $38.44 STOP lOSS $0.01 = - $0.33

15:16 S-33 $38.22 STOP GAIN $0.20 = + 6.60

gAINS =$45.04
LOSS  - -$4.16
nET PROFIT $40.88-   Obviously- this is a much  smaller gain than I was hoping for-but the stock was up  over +3.6% if  you had held from yesterday's Close- 
I'm not willing to take that overnight /risk  in the 3x quite yet.
I should have entered this trade with more size ....but the goal here is to make more profitable trades than losing trades- and not necessarily to be sizing up early in this process.   Overall, if  I can keep a ratio of gains higher than losses- today's 10x gain to Loss is a good start on the week.








jASON lEAVITT- Video on how he applies a combination of RSI, MACD and Stochastic - in this case to enter on the short side
www.youtube.com/watch?v=GsxhGW4CbYU

[sd]

5-7-2024 Markets open initially higher - no trades taken on the open.



initial -$10 loss in TQQQ buying with a limit expecting the base lows to be support.



sqqq stop triggers for a net loss-as a buy stop fills in TQQQ



Whipsawed- loss in TQQQ as a trend continuation fails-to develop - We're in a sideways range this am ....it's 10:20 and so the Uptrend started this am with the gap higher is holding- so far-




Regarding PLTR earnings miss From the LB board
I saw this posted on twitter. Warning: fundamentals coming




Comments on the 'decay' in using the 3x leveraged funds- from the LB board.

From the article on leverage "Assume an investor has placed $100 in a triple-leveraged fund. Consider what happens when the price of the benchmark index goes up 5% one day and down 5% on the next trading day. The 3x leveraged fund goes up 15% and down 15% on consecutive days. After the first day of trading, the initial $100 investment is worth $115. The next day after trading closes, the initial investment is now worth $97.75. That represents a loss of 2.25% on an investment that would normally track the benchmark without the use of leverage. " The exact same thing happens without leverage. $100 plus 5% = $105 $105 minus 5% = $99.75

Read my post again. I am not suggesting holding through long downtrends. I am suggesting NOT holding bull 3X's through long downtrends. That is stupid. But I AM showing that during ANY extended uptrend period like YTD for example (which involved ups and downs along the way), the leveraged ETF's will always outperform the underlying by a lot as long as the trend during the period was UP. - Devoid, 10:39 05/07/2024







Good info at the LB board.



As the TNA dropped, took an entry in TZA - It's been basing since 11:15- am
Comparing the $vix with the price movements. Should also use the A/D line. perhaps



Article on leveraged ETFS-
www.investopedia.com/articles/exchangetradedfunds/07/leveraged-etf.asp

[sd]

5.8.2024
Markets opened lower after 3 consecutive up days -
Initial Trade TZA .
Bought in 2 trades - a 1/3 small entry buy 9:31:24 (50) $18.67
a mkt buy (100) on a bullish price upswing 9:51: $18.55

Avg cost $18.59- stop under the swing low $$18.48

Took a -$`16 loss on this trade- on 150 share position size.









11:40 sideways range -buy stop waiting.




Amazing how tightly Price can become support and resistance on the faster charts-
the horizontal lines on this chart are just $0.01 cent apart!

sold 1/2 on raised stop



tna buy stop fills as TZA stops out.



My trying to be nimble saw losses in both trades-



ending up slightly in the red today as I experimented with trying to be nimble-

one more trade:


test pullback




2.36 pm stops in place- Hope is for a trend higher to continue


2:48 pm tight stop triggers $37.93 fill. Nets + $0.15
2 stops remain at wider intervals.

Buy tza- stop risk $0.02





partial stop $38.01 fills.


looking (hoping) for a push higher into the close.

Red bar forming- but Closed higher - and blue.



I started off the day expecting the bearish TZA to gain- and it reversed course on me almost immediately-

Revisiting the TNA trade -RECAP
The big gap lower open in TNA also set a bottom Low. (2M bar) Price opened -$1 lower than the close.



i TRIED TO FORCE TRADES AGAINST THE DOWNTREND IN TZA IN THE AM.
AFTER several net losing trades in tza in the AM, I traded better after 11:00.
This chart reviews the TNA trades-
I had tried- and cancelled a buy stop @ 11:30 that did not get triggered.
I nailed a good snap back entry on the drop reaction @ 12:40- and was quick to set a tight stop on price indecision/weakness.
Trade 2 was getting a decent tight fill on the range breakout.
Allowed a test without bailing. sold 2/3 on tight stops as Price rolled lower.
Fair entry on Trade 3- sold the prior 1/3 to net a gain, and allowed the remaining position to see tight stops sell 3:59 pm.
This pulled me almost all out of the red.

[sd]

5-9-2024
Optomotrist appt this am - Won't be trading the open.

Futures are headed to Open lower @ 6:30 am- so -with 3 hours to go, plenty of time to change....

Overall, I liked the Close up views the 2 M chart provided, and also the challenge of trying to adapt when the trends changed between the long and the inverse. Several members @ LB are nimble enough to trade both directions.
Ultimately, the Devoid approach to try to stay in a trade for the duration of the day as long as the uptrend holds is the ideal- for generally larger gains overall-

I need to mention that he also swing trades and holds for several days- and often manages to get substantial gains over a few days ...

I'll recommend www.Leavittbrothers.com- for both Jase's commentary, potential trades, and the very active board with diverse market approaches.
His 2 courses- Intangibles audio; and Masterclass- in depth explanation of the TA applied and breaking down examples of it's application in trading is excellent-
The Search feature allows you to go back in time to see what a member was saying at points in the past-

[sd]

Futures in the green @ 7 am- ahead of the CPI report pre open-
Anyone who works for a living needs to follow the CPI- If they're not getting a pay increase to match the annual % change in the CPI at least- they're going backwards -financially. If one is just building their career- a raise needs to exceed the CPI in order to be a raise.


Will be heading out early this am to get another load of Mulch - "Free" this week and loaded by the County.
Expect to be back in time to consider a trade or two- but cannot stay behind the computer screen all day-
With plenty to do outside- have to discipline myself to perhaps set a trade, watch it a bit to get above breakeven- consider a trailing stop>>> and get some things done...


Well issues- No water this am- Fun Fun Fun !
Pump not coming on. Joys of home ownership!
No trading this am - could be a 2 day project...


Got lucky- Turns out my dual filter system is clogged with extra fine silt- and very low 5 & 12 micron filters-
Had recently changed out- but the LOLO had pointed out- Perhaps the incoming line is still filled with sediment from overwatering 1 day last year-=
Flushed the main line several times for 5 minutes- and it was running clear- No visible sediment settling out in a pan....
Changed out the filters- Should we get more sediment -anytime soon- We potentially will have to try to raise the pump up +10'-15'- Previously- years ago- had a bit of a cave-in that lodged on top of the pump - 120' down- and was not able to lift it up. Glued 120' of pvc pipe together- fitted one end with an air chuck fitting , and hooked up the air compressor to it- after numerous up and down to where it contacted the blockage, the pump finally was able to be lifted higher.


Consumer sentiment- The BOOCK Report

[sd]

Watch this video- MIKE Bellafiore- SMB talking to a group of aspiring traders this year-about what it takes to succeed at their level.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7ZV2OcLBRo

[sd]

Mothers day! Sunday- going to spend the day with our 2 daughters & 5 grandchildren!

Wisdom and experience from Jason @ Leavittbrothers.com :

I've been out front the last few weeks arguing we need to make some adjustments to how we operate. We can't buy high with the intentions of selling higher because we're not getting much follow through. We can't hold for weeks because most moves are lasting less than five days. We have to be content shooting for smaller wins in shorter time periods because this is what the market is giving us. And we have to maintain max flexibility because it's easy to get lured into the long or short side after a string of good or bad days.

Under these conditions, I often get emails asking if this is a good time to trade. That given the challenging market, perhaps it would be better to shut it down for a while and come back when the market is more clear.

To this I say: No, don't stop; keep going.

Here are some notes from one of my talks in my Guidelines class about when is the best time to learn trading.

Right now is the best time to learn because there is no perfect market for learning.

All markets have flaws. All markets are good for teaching you something, but unfortunately, they’re also good at building bad habits.

If you start during a bull market, you’ll make money, but you’ll also develop some bad habits that won’t transfer to other conditions.

Bull markets are easy and relatively stress free. The trend is up most of the time, so you buy breakouts and dips; you add to positions and perhaps use some leverage. The problem is you grow to be lazy with managing trades. Your entries will be careless because they can be; your risk management skills will not develop. You might even get in the habit of not using stops because, why should you? Most stocks come back anyways. You can let stocks go for weeks and watch your gains grow day after day.

But then the market enters a flat period, which will expose all your bad habits. Ranges are periods of indecision, and they should not be trusted. You’re in the habit of chasing breakouts, but in a range, it’s better to buy dips, and your entries need to be more precise. You’re conditioned to hold positions for a few weeks, but with the lack of follow through in a range, you often need to take profits within a few days or risk giving everything back. You must use a stop, which you got away with not using during your bull market training because even weak positions came back.

The opposite is also true. If you learn during a range, you use tight stops, which may not be appropriate during a strong trend. You’re in the habit of taking quick profits, but in a bull market, you want to milk trades for everything they’re worth. You’re trading smaller size, because, in general, you’re more conservative. But in a bull market, you want to be more aggressive. So, if you learn during a range, you’ll build a bunch of habits that prevent you from maximizing opportunities of an uptrend.

Bear markets are a different animal, where the market tends to exhibit all types of markets at various times – ranges, followed by selloffs, followed by huge bounces, followed by more selloffs, which are then followed ranges.

So, no market is perfect because each will build certain skills which may not transfer over to a different market, and unfortunately, some bad habits, which will get you in a lot of trouble when the market changes.

Whatever the market is doing right now, just trade it. Unless you're already a great trader, and it's part of your operation to sit out from time to time when you are out of sync with the market conditions, you’ll want to use a crappy market to build your skills, so when conditions improve, you’ll be able to maximize opportunities.

Hear me out for a minute. Here’s the ideal situation...

You’ve identified your 'A' trades. You have collected hundreds of examples and created a small library to study. You have placed 50-100 trades and have learned the nuances. You know how to manage the trades and are comfortable taking losses. You also know when and where to add to positions and have sized up enough that you are emotionally able to "press the accelerator" under the right conditions. You have practiced and kept a journal and reflected on your operation.

And this is combined with...

The market is in the beginning stages of a bull market and is starting to act well. Stocks are respecting levels and moving averages. They're breaking out of patterns and holding their gains. They're following through after breaking out. They're attracting buyers on minor dips within newly-formed uptrends. Higher highs and higher lows are being made. Trading is somewhat easy. The vibe is positive. You can feel a sense of optimism in the country. People are generally happy and living their lives. There's a shortage of constant warnings.

But what are the odds everything falls into place like this? I’d say very low.

Success happens when opportunity and preparedness meet.

Don’t lose your enthusiasm if you find the current conditions to be a challenge. Use this time to build your skills, and when the market improves, you’ll be ready to go and take full advantage of the opportunities.

This is a fantastic time to learn. Any time is a fantastic time to learn.

Identify your A trades. Study the setups; collect examples; execute trades; learn the nuances. Jesse Livermore said: The game taught me the game.

There is a limit to how much you can learn at 10 o'clock at night studying charts. At some point you have to get in the arena. Execute a trade. Journal it. Reflect on it. Make a slight adjustment if needed. Then execute another one.

Build a library of examples. Nail down your trade management. Slowly start adding to winners. Practice. Build your skills and knowledge base. Get more comfortable.

And while you're doing this, don't judge yourself on whether you make money; grade yourself on whether you "did right" - good entries, the right stops, adds at the right times and levels. You'll have losing trades, and that's fine. Your goal is to use a crappy market to learn and experience and develop. And then, on the other side of the crap, when there'll be amazing opportunities, you'll be 100% ready to take full advantage.

If you sit out a bad period and wait until the conditions are better, you will under trade. You'll make money, but you won't completely knock the ball out of the ballpark.

No market is perfect for learning because all markets condition you to operate in a certain way to survive and make money, but those same skills can work against you when the market changes.

Learn trading; experience trading; grow and develop your skills; hone in on your A setup and execute enough trades to get comfortable. Then, when your trading operation is in sync with the market conditions, you’ll multiply your account.

Success happens when opportunity and preparedness meet. Get prepared now. Opportunity is coming.

Back to the market. It moved up for several months...moved down for a couple weeks...and now is moving back up. Earnings season is filled with landmines. If you prefer trading ranges, go for it. This is your kind of market. If you prefer a trend, don't shut it down. Some groups are trending, so while there may not be that steady wind at your back, there are opportunities.

Let's get to the charts. What kind of staying power does this mini uptrend have?

The Indexes

The Weeklies

The S&P, Nasdaq and Russell 3000 posted gains for a third straight week. The SPX and Nas are back at their highs. Volume has tailed off, suggesting lower interest at these levels. Three weeks ago we were talking about a consolidation or weak bounce that would likely be followed by another leg down. That's off the table for now. This bounce has gone far enough to neutralize the weakness. The indexes have a cushion to work with. Even if they were to break down, it'll take some time and back and forth movement first.







The Dailies

The S&P, Nasdaq and Russell 3000 are now unchanged looking back 2-5 months. The move down neutralized the uptrend, and now the bounce has neutralized the downtrend. The market can either rally, trend lower or move sideways in a range. Until proven otherwise, I'm going to approach this like we have a range in front of us. Unless the Fed surprises everyone and lowers rates, there's no catalyst for prices to suddenly surge. I'm willing to be proven wrong, but until that happens, I'm thinking a continuation of the sideways movement is in store. That means we can't get overly excited about the upside potential after a string of up days and can't get overly depressed after a week of selling pressure. Stay even keel. Play both sides with short term trades.







Advance-Decline and Advancing & Declining Volume Data

S&P 500 vs 5-day Moving Average of the NYSE AD Line: A downtrend has been rejected. The 5-day MA of the NYSE AD line plunged, but it quickly recovered and it never fell a second time. Instead it spent time above 0 and then surged to a 6-month high. Could a top form here? Sure. But instead of being on edge, the bulls have a cushion to work with.



S&P 500 vs 10, 20 and 50-day Moving Average of the NYSE AD Line: The 10-day of the AD line has printed its highest level of the year. Maintaining a healthy level would be great; shallow dips are permissible too. As long as there isn't a deep plunge, our bias shall remain to the upside. The 20 is solidly above 0. The 50 didn't drop to 0. Unlike the August dip, when the 50 dropped to 0, bounced, and then fell through, the 50 didn't get close. It double bottomed and is getting back to decent level.



S&P 500 vs Cumulative NYSE AD Line: The cumulative AD line dropped below its 21, but it recovered and is now at a new high. You can be hesitant to enter trades here - especially in front of earnings - but we can't be bearish. Advancers have steadily beaten decliners.



S&P 500 vs McClellan Oscillator: The McClellan Oscillator has broken out to its highest level of the year. This is a change in character that should back-stop any selling pressure in the near term. Could the market top soon? Sure. But there's underlying strength to lean on.



NYSE Up Volume vs Total Volume and Nasdaq Up Volume vs Total Volume: At the NYSE, up volume has dominated down volume numerous times the last three weeks, with down volume having a big advantage only once. At the Nasdaq, up volume has also dominated many times, while down volume was in control three times. The bounce off the April low is supported. Much more volume is flowing into advancing stocks than declining stocks.



New Highs and New Lows

S&P 500 vs All Stocks 5-day High-Low: The 5-day high-low has oscillated above 0 for two weeks. This is reminiscent of the beginning stages of the rally off the October low and much different than the August-October downtrend when the indicator spent most of its time below 0.



S&P 500 vs Russell 3000 1-month High-Low: The 1-month high-low has also gotten above 0, which, from a character standpoint, is much different than last fall's downtrend. The market has rejected the move down, which now looks much more like a dip within an uptrend than the first leg of a downtrend.



S&P 500 vs Russell 3000 52-week High-Low: Ditto for the 52-week high-low. The print is firmly above 0, which is what happens when the market is in good shape, not when it's at risk of breaking down.



Stocks Above Moving Averages

S&P 500 vs 2-day MA of Russell 3000 Stocks above Their 5-day MA's: At the April low the percentage of Russell 3000 stocks above their 5-day moving averages was at a washout level and consistent with local bottoms. From there, the question was: will the print bounce well above 0, signaling the end of the mini downtrend, or would a bounce get rejected, suggesting there was more downside coming. We got a strong move and then a shallower dip and then another surge. This indicator is acting like the market is in fine shape and not in jeopardy of breaking down.



S&P 500 vs Russell 3000 Stocks above Their 20-day MA's: Russell 3000 stocks above their 20-day moving averages have matched their highest print of the year. If the expanding print had been rejected at a lower level like last fall, the market would likely leg down again. But climbing this high, at a minimum, ends the pullback. This doesn't mean the market runs to the upside, but it should backstop selling pressure in the near term.



S&P 500 vs Russell 3000 Stocks above Their 50-day MA's: Russell 3000 stocks above their 50-day MAs have climbed out of a danger zone. Instead of getting rejected by the 50% level, the print continued to expand. This reverses the trend up, but there's work to do. Prints above 60% are needed.



Other

S&P 500 vs the 10-year Yield: The 10-year yield was flat on the week. Wall Street would love another leg down.



S&P 500 vs the US Dollar: The dollar was up slightly but still below the April consolidation period. Wall Street would love another leg down here too.



S&P 500 vs the 14-day Average True Range: The ATR is falling hard. This was a missing piece the last two weeks, but it's finally supporting the market. Strong markets feed on low or declining volatility.



S&P 500 vs the VIX: The VIX has moved straight south for three weeks. If it had hung around at an elevated level, it would reject the current market strength. But it hasn't happened. And low VIX readings can stay low for a long time.



S&P 500 vs the 10-day MA of Put/Call: During the April drop, the 10-day of the put/call ramped up, but instead of holding its level and then surging again, it dropped back. Now the bulls want the indicator to break support and go back to its lows.



The Bottom Line

The market posted gains for a third straight week. Breadth readings are much improved and more characteristic of an uptrend than downtrend. This mini rally has, at the very least, neutralized the April weakness. The bulls have a cushion to work with.

But let's not get overly optimistic the market is about to rip higher. The trading lists lean to the upside, but just the fact that we have both long and short ideas tells us the market is split and undecided. Over the last couple months, the market has moved up and down, luring traders in to one side, just before reversing.

Bias leans to the upside, but it's still not a strong bias.

Have a great week.

Jason Leavitt

[sd]

BAR BY BAR -video #3
Justin @ SMB breaking down his trades and interprets the price action on the 1 M chart.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtvgkfDEGB8&list=PLo5LM9g7UwibJAoDFjZTFPJqCVZoMZcO_&index=3

Notice that he often includes Volume on his chart aNd correlates that higher volume on a bar as potentially significant. He also includes VWAP on his charts and refers to VWAP in several of the videos so far- 9 videos in this series- Excellent to view an experienced day trader that also does some swing trading

AL Brooks- also has books and videos on Bar by Bar analysis.

www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLcashv5WbzwSUE-SmLuKbFXmvabjZLaHI
I haven't watched many of his videos-Price action purist-


Trading the price action on the Open:
5M charts- He also looks for the 18 bar (1.5 HR) there is a high probability of 90% that the HOD or LOD was established.
He covers the probabilities found in different combinations following the Open.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGDYNoY3b68&list=PLcashv5WbzwSUE-SmLuKbFXmvabjZLaHI&index=14