SD- 2021- ACTIVE MANAGEMENT FOR GREATER SUCCESS IN 2021

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The Final Bar- for yesterday : www.youtube.com/watch?v=GD-RQsTz0Gc
10-21-2021 Futures down slightly this am after a good performance yesterday.
$VIX - volatility has been declining as the markets are finding reasons to go higher.
Chart reflects the big sell-off in September, and the reduced volatility we have seen in October.

the 10 am snapshot- In the Red @ 10 am



AND THE DAY ENDED:

PDBC POSITION HIT THE RAISED STOPS TO LOCK IN GAINS ON TODAY'S PULLBACK.
Ford - F again moving sharply higher today- Making a new High Close above the prior June high-

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QQQA NEW etf
As I work to develop some diverse portfolio allocations, I have a position in the Equal Weight Nas 100 QQEW.
Today I viewed a presentation by ETF.com with Pro Shares that have issued a new Momentum & RS Tech ETF that selects only 21 of the Nas 100 large cap names, holds them for a period of 3 months, and then rebalances-removing the underperformer and replacing it with what has come into new strength. The goal is to narrow the field by selecting the best performers out of the index based on momentum and RS (relative strength).


PRO SHARES: Dorsey Wright ETF -QQQA using a RS & momentum matrix to identify the better performers- only 21 EW holdings vs 100 in the Nasdaq 100 Rebalanced quarterly - Equal weighting does not favor only the capweighted, and may provide access to those slightly smaller outperformers. Have to see how it performs over a period of market quarters to get a fair comparison.
QQQA closed up +.87% today, QQEW (100 Nas stocks) closed up .71, and the cap weighted QQQ closed up .61% - But the majority of that QQQ index is based on the 5 FAANG stocks- The QQQA is a new and interesting offering - that likely will become a new position for me vs the QQEW.

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Has "Energy" lost it's momentum?
I have been overweight XLE in both accounts- and relatively decent gains recently in the positions.
Tracking the trades in the IRA- we started off losing- only to see net gains overall.

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10-22-2021 Futures mixed -
To compare premarket to where we Close today- I'm concerned about the decline in Energy yesterday


The Shift out of tech today is reflected in this mid afternoon chart-

Also reflected in 2 positions I'm holding TROW, XLF.
Reits ,Transports,Industrials are doing well IYR,IYT,XLI this week.
I'm Buying BX (Global Financial) on today's breakout above the prior highs, and also adding Charles Schwab SCHW as a swing into financials- Had some cash freed due to the sell of RRC, DVN. in the IB account.
I had a small tech position in QQEW- which I just sold- for a small net gain- I am thinking I may allow the QQQA to hold that spot-
Combined Portfolio holdings are heavily weighted into commodities, Energy, Financials.

Dan Niles - Satori fund shares his change from a bullish outlook- but expects a more substantial decline ahead, and is increasing his cash allocation- expecting to buy at a discount in the months ahead- and possibly a down reaction in Nov as more data comes out and the Fed reveals it's policies.

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10-23-21 Saturday- Lots of yard work scheduled-
A view of setting prior price ranges as support-

STOPS are quite subjective- and different for each individual- In a very strong uptrend, one can trail a stop-loss at the fast ema-or potentially at a slower ema- and only raise the stop when price makes a CLOSE below the uptrending fast 10 ema.
Or, one knows that price makes a pause- a rest in an uptrend- As it did this past week in TSLA-
sideways for a few days, and then goes up higher- raising a stop to the low of that pause- $850.00
makes good sense- The green dots are the PSAR and can also be applied as a stop-loss
Let's assume you 1st set a guide that one does not take any trades that are in a downtrend-Price Below the declining 10 ema-
Simplify the idea of Trend- View the direction of the 50 ema to determine the primary trend-
If the 50 ema is sloping up -rising- and the 10 ema is also above the 50 and rising-

Immediately that improves the probability of having a successful trade, because the Trend is your Friend- until it turns on you!
In the attached chart- I demonstrate the principle of understanding Price ranges as levels that Price in an uptrend will move to a next higher level- Using the price movement above the present price range, it should not fall back and violate the bottom of that range- (support and can be used as a wide stop-loss)
Personally, I use a similar approach but on a faster time frame chart .
In periods of excess momentum -as is occurring now- see the Gold MACD histogram bars ,
I would potentially use the fast ema value -for part of the position- and -expecting this momentum to stall out soon, set a stop-loss 1% below the Low of each day's Close-
Friday's low $890.00 - -`1% = stop @ $881.00 for a very aggressive stop to capture profits/ momentum gains-with the remaining position being able to trail price at the fast ema.
Note that I expanded the height of the chart to better illustrate the price in "Ranges"
There are other applications for stops- Like the PSAR dots shown on the chart-
If PSAR was used on this daily chart- the stop loss would be set @ 839.00- The goal of PSAR is to
measure price movements and eventually to Close in on the active price.

Study the attached chart as it transitions out of a downtrend, into a sideways BASE- and then how it attempts to get a new uptrend going but volatile price swings Aug 16,17 - If one used the prior swing low level in the previous range as a wide stop-loss, one would not have been stopped out .
This remains true for each of the price ranges, since the 10 ema has continued to stay above the 50 ema. I tend to keep my stops too tight- Perhaps I could learn to apply this to some of my positions-

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SETTING A NEW BASELINE-
The Edelman rollover withdrawals out of the Vanguard accounts have been completed-Simple process .
Remaining Vanguard balances are presently fully invested .
For Performance & Accounting Purposes, the combined Van Roth & IRA is $46,188.35 End of WEEK.
The IRA is $24,227.41 The Van Roth is $21,960.00 The IB Roth is $20,200.00 total = $66,388.35


No regrets in turning over the majority of my retirement assets to Edelman- They are a Fiduciary firm, managing Billions of dollars using a low cost portfolio with automatic rebalancing-
It takes a level of responsibility off my shoulders to apply my "active management" approach , that I feel did not bring the level of returns I desire. With These remaining assets I can afford to explore, experiment, and potentially take a greater level of Risk without jeapordizing our financial future should I ultimately lose or underperform. Ultimately, one's psychology determines the long term success of their trading strategy. My comfort level was to reduce potential losses with an aggressive stop-loss approach- and did not perform well in these past 6 months. The realization of my relative underperformance in the latter months of this year is what prompted me to make the Rollover to Edelman. I want to have a Fiduciary investment firm that has a solid and diversified approach to the markets-
While our total assets are modest compared to many, we're fortunate enough to now have 2 firms managing our relatively small individual accounts, with 2 distinctly different approaches- which we will compare with as the months roll into years. I like engaging the 2 different firms- and the 2 different approaches- Both advisers claim to be "Fiduciaries"; putting our best interests 1st. On the one hand, since each of these managers takes a different approach, it is not a quick competition between the 2 of them -2 different approaches will have 2 different outcomes in terms of volatility and gains/losses. When we met with our 1st adviser recently, as he displayed our account's performance since it started 5 years ago- he was quick to point out that we had retained our initial investment during the market's volatility.
He had little to say when I showed him the relative minor volatility equity curve i had since 2018- as well as the relative outperformance- However, He is my diversified benchmark - that I based myself against- Although I outperformed him in lower volatility and higher gains, He is now adjusting his management of my account to allow a more aggressive growth approach- I felt our meeting was very constructive as we are making changes . I showed him that I was giving Edelman management of a portion of my Vanguard funds- and their proposed ETF portfolio-
He tried to explain how his company's approach comes in at a considerable lower charge- but i didn't understand his
explanation- I also did not like how the EQIS account had shifted some assets into an ESG account with a high social agenda-for Activism that lost money the entire year, while they had reduced the allocation to the "Value" manager that had continued to provide years of outperformance relative to the markets.

In the interim, we are fortunate enough to retain enough assets to manage by our selves to keep some skin in the game, and to stay intellectually engaged in the markets-

While many of the market pundits are forecasting subdued long term growth over the next decade, I think that having our majority of assets under the management of 2 firms will provide enough of a professional management that we will survive the future volatility that the markets may bring-
While a "Black Swan" event may occur, fear of the markets is a losing proposition. Getting my own Bias out of the way is a 1st step-

BTW- IRA- I think that was a smart move!!!

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I think it is likely a good idea to compare the performance chart- particularly on the week and month to note where the rotations are heading. RRG Charts on stockcharts provide similar information, but comparing last week to this week,and what changes are on the month in terms of relative performance can perhaps guide one's management of individual positions seeing where the market is strengthening and where it is weakening.
The 1st performance chart is from from 10-18 (Monday) I did not have one for the prior Friday-




How the Week ended: a shift in the near term leadership as Energy drops out of the outperforming segment, and weakens on the monthly perf from the prior week- Tech makes an upmove on the weekly




How does one apply this information?
For myself, I see that Financials are strengthening on the 1 week scale- Up from 1.37 on Monday, to end the week a higher 1.83. Financials also were the 1 day relative leader on both Monday and Friday-

I chose to increase my exposure to Financials as I had some cash free up in the IB account as 2 energy positions stopped out- DVN, RRC. Both had delivered nice gains, but the momentum had stalled, as both of these range sideways-
I still hold XLE in several accounts -as well as overweight in the Commodities through a number of commodity ETFS-including DBE-a solid energy fund- I still hold a large % allocated to Energy, but it makes sense to both add some diversification and weighting a bit more into Financials.

I am relatively pleased with my account performance since making the decision to allocate into the leading sectors-
The positions in the Van IRA have gained an average of 8% + since September- was higher, but has declined slightly.
Van Roth +5.8% - of course , these are unrealized gains at the closing prices Friday- and several energy positions have stopped out in both accounts-

Friday I had some free cash in the IB - added BX,SCHW, and had recently bought TROW in the past week, after selling DVN,RRC-both of which had outperformed the XLE .
That account is presently all-in with the positions there now 3 Financials, 3 Energy/commodity sector.






As can be easily determined , the XLE positions are predominant - positions in all 3 accounts presently, and overweight based on a dollar allocation.
XLE appears to have stalled in it's upward momentum, based on the recent price action-
As indicated on this 2 hour chart, and also on the performance graphs posted, Energy has perhaps reached a plateau, where a sideways range may develop . this is sugggested by the 2 Hr chart showing a lessening of momentum as Price drops below the 2 hr 30 ema. The PPO indicator is becoming more bearish- sub the 0 line, and Price has introduced a lower swing low over the course of this 1 week.
As a swing trader< I want to capture the majority of an upmove, but also allow some leeway . Note that the Daily chart also suggests a declining MACD approaching the 0.00 line, and a potential PSAR sell, along with a drop in the momentum-


Viewing the faster 4 hr chart of XLE, The question is whether XLE investment has peaked or is simply making a base prior to making a new leg higher. The pullback from the highs made last week is a relatively modest -2.5% swing down to the $57.00 low.
A positive green bar going into the Friday close , the upturning Stoch/RSI - and the rising A/D line makes me potentially optimistic it has simply paused-

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Lessons can be learned from the wisdoms learned by those that make frequent trades-
Ross of Warrior trading - A professional day trader - missed out on making his $20,000.00 goal trading the Trump SPAC DWAC-
www.youtube.com/watch?v=z49zgiYuiW0
Rather long video as he unwinds and reflects on not making big gains on the DWAC trade- actually had more losers than winners-but still made 10K at the end of Day, after being in the RED.
Part of this approach applies with Swing trading- in taking profits along the way- and stops to protect the downside.
Know and recognize when the Trade is going against your assumptions.
Why do I find interest in a Day Traders journal? What should I take away as relevant for my swing trading approach?

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10-25-21 Premarket Futures are up-
Infrastructure Bill may see progress this week- Fortunately Joe Mansion is a democrat with some restraint.
Big Earnings week continues- With FB reporting today- It's been under pressure due to the "whistle blower" and it's knowledge that many of it's younger users are negatively influenced by their use of it's social media platform.
FB is considered to be a primary platform for advertisers- and trades at something of a discount relative to other tech and it's earnings. FANG as a group appears to be under pressure-but Tech - QQQ has made an upswing in the past week
I just sold the 100 QQEW thinking I will replace it with the 21 EW position QQQA- It holds a different basket of tech stocks based on momentum. It's a new ETF approach starting in MAY- However, viewing it on a perf chart compared with QQQ,QQEW,
it appears to be much more volatile on the downside swing, and-as yet- not outperforming on the upside. I'll pass on it today.


The market performance chart from last week- Will compare it to where the market goes later today-
Energy appeared to be slipping, financials were gaining- What shakes out as the leadership this week following earnings?

The sector performance at the end of the day:


Energy made some gains today, with a number of positions breaking out above the recent sideways action- including those I added on buy-stops. Today's breakout leaves a rationale to set a stop just below the most recent base- The entire Energy sector has been down for years, and as Oil and Nat Gas demand and prices continue to Rise, the sector continues higher.


TSLA upgraded by MS with a $1,200 target- 30% upside from it's present $909.00 Price-
An entry here on the upside momentum with a stop-loss @ $850= Risk $60/910.00= 6.6%
This would be the textbook "Breakout" exceeding the Jan 2021 highs.
tHE weekly CHART- SHOWS increasing upside momentum as price closes above $900.00! There will be no overhead supply from here. TSLA $949 premarket- May see a tremendous momo surge on this long awaited new high for it's shareholders.


TSLA-I Don't trust the premarket hype- or Bid/ASK but I have an order for 3 TSLA Limit $921.00 Premarket it's $949.00
Energy XLE premarket bids are higher- - FCG is the Nat gas -
If it breaks out higher- Buy-stop $18.90 -Limit $19.05
CVX- buy stop 113.70-113.85
2 orders filled-on buy-stop limit orders at the open. OIL is up higher today-Nat gas futures higher-


Will see how TSLA performs after the 10 am potential for prices to turn.
The gap high open ran up to $970 and @ 10 am has dropped just slightly below the open-

TSLA SURGING HIGHER - NOT CHASING $974.00

ENERGY SECTOR- XLE making a new high at the open.
Was filled on both CVX,FCG at the open as my buy-0stop/limit orders were met.
TSLA rolled on to trillion dollar levels today- I cancelled my limit order, and selected ARKQ - The Ark Tech automation fund as my single Tech position across the portfolios.

I'm seriously overweight Energy- XLE accounts for a 28% weight across the 3 accounts-
CVX,FCG,DBE,PXE, account for +20% of the account
Commodity funds have a mix of exposure to materials and oil FTGC,COM ,PDBC,COMT =+ 8%
Financials -SCHW,TROW,BX,XLF =32%
F,ARKQ, =+7%

I need to do additional research and performance comparisoms of the commodity funds-
consumer discretionary XLY has been strong & making new highs today have been strong the past week .

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10-26-21 Futures continue to be up TSLA ripped higher-and likely goes higher again today- Unfortunately , no position, and no free cash- and I would not chase it here- Kudos to Cathy Wood.!

Viewing FB just to see if it's positive Close yesterday signals a bottom?

I have no free cash- but I'm watching FB - as a 'test' of sorts- it's been under pressure , and did not beat on earnings on all measures in it's earnings- but it is also the preeminent platform for advertisers- This is a " Buy the bottomming formation- second bounce off the downtrend.
The "TRADE" would be to enter only if FB goes higher today using a Buy-Stop to enter at $330.00 with a Limit of $335.00. The stop-loss on an entry would be set initially @ $322.00
for a ​ relatively low Risk of 2.8% if filled @ $330.00 and -4% if filled @ $335.00
IF FB does fill the order, it would suggest that the bad news is already baked into the price as it gets slammed by congress.
Edit FB is up premarket -331.50 - The buy-stop order would fill at the open- potentially, this gap open will also see some volatility- so a split of the order- limit- $330.00 for part of a position and then another limit @ $332.00 - don't chase over $335.00. Fooled by the premarket hype- Price reached a $330.21 high, and would have been filled on the Buy-Stop order-
This now would become a losing position-




TSLA's gain yesterday saw FORD F pullback and slightly penetrate the fast ema- Closing right at it.
I'll give this a bit of room with the stop loss MOVED ABOVE MY $14.90 RECENT ENTRY.
PSAR on the daily chart is $15.42. As i view the Finviz.com info, The ATR (Average True Range) is $0.49%
Volatility 3.41% ($0.55 /$16.00 close =)
Can I allow F greater price volatility? I don't care for the inability to confirm a higher breakout - but I'll take my stop down to just above my entry using the 21 ema value and see if it can get some buyers in to push it higher-
recognizing this level as a prior high that failed , and the consolidation over the prior week's level as absorbing the sell supply - ideally would hold. As I view the price levels over the past weeks on the 1 hour chart compared with the Daily, I can see different price ranges that had large buy volumes and "should" make some level of support.
For today, I will set my stop loss just above my cost of entry using the OCT 11 swing low. $14.97



GE Breaking out from a 4 month base today !Resistance @ $115.00 - (Not a position)


TRANSPORTS HIGHER! IYT

Yesterday's new adds CVX, FCG as both were making trend continuations higher- Both are Energy related, Oil and Nat Gas .
using the 2 hr chart, the consistency of the CVX uptrend


I entered FCG (Nat gas) as it moved up out of a 2 week basing period. FCG is considerably more stable than the UNG Nat gas fund. and I do not necessarily understand the correlation.



ARKQ ENTRY followed on the move higher following a 2 day pause/consolidation.
This is the Cathy Wood Autonomous fund- and does have a TSLA position. But I think the automation fund will do will in this manpower/labor shortage - As TSLA up move likely tops out in momentum today, we'll see how this fund performs.


TSLA - topping tail made today- take some profits if you have them!

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10-27-21 Futures went from red/flat. to slightly in the green. some 40+ companies report today-
Robinhood disappoints - GS says TSLA likely has another 10% upside-

If Chasing momentum trades- are you the shark or are you the bait?
15 minute charts


EOD:


TSLA :

EOD:TSLA continues to climb higher- but clearly an inside day - Set stops @ low of the day each day -IMO.


Yesterday's PERFORMANCE CHART

Today's chart shows Energy and financials weakening-



A number of my stocks-financials and energy as well as commodities weakened- and i tightened some stops and positions sold- and tonight I raised stops to the lows of today on remaining positions that broke the fast ema.

Setting price targets? Support levels?
JCParets -All star charts often uses Fib levels in their estimates of a price move- (I never tried that)
allstarcharts.com/education/helpful-technical-tools/fibonacci/
@ 10 am, red in most of my positions- Financials, Commodities, Energy-
MY 3 holdings in the green initially is tech ARKQ- , and 2 financials barely green SCHW (got an upgrade) and TROW.
Goog up +2%,
Stops are in- heading outside...

PM - F Ford is being sold off further today with earnings this pm. I sold @ $15.63- GM had a significant -4% gap down open today. Buy the rumor- sell the news.

FORD beat earnings and rallied +7%! after hours- I took a small profit by selling -not willing to take the roulette wheel of an earnings disappointment.

XLE hit 1 of my position stops,and came with $.01 of hitting the $57.30 stop in the 2nd position. The 3rd position stop is at 57.00-
A net -2% in account balance this pm.

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10-28--21 Futures in the Green-
Ford surging higher on earnings beat and outlook- Should I chase it here after it stopped out?
TROW- Financial- to deliver earnings before the Bell- Holding a 5k position with a stop ($203.00) above my cost of entry $ 199.87. I expect it to be sold off.
Energy continues to weaken- stops in this are locking in small gains.
Watching Ross Cameron -live day trading approach- for the possible swing trading lessons to be gained -from watching day traders? The youtube feed is delayed by 20 minutes- so should not be followed , but perhaps some trading lessons to be gained-on momentum trading.
1st time viewing- He typically ends the day profitable- BIG account, big bets, scales in and scales out.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=_L8yQCudzSw
Yesterday's sector rotations:


MIDDAY SECTOR PERFORMANCE- fINANCIALS AND ENERGY LAGGARDS- IS GROWTH THE NEW PLACE FOR ROTATION?



Watching F on the gap higher for a pullback to reenter this - If I do, it will be with uncleared funds and I will have to hold for 3 days.Moved up +12% -out of my reach, will see if it pulls back post 10 am .
the 5 min high was $17.20 on the OPEN
Watching the price after 10 am settles out.
F PEAKED AND HAS TURNED AFTER 10 AM .
i PLAN TO MAKE A BUY - IDEALLY LOWER - IF IT BREAKS BELOW THE OPEN - WHERE WILL THE LOWER SUPPORT BE FOUND?


TRADE ANALYSIS- Time to do some trade reflections- and perhaps ingrain some lessons-

TROW surging higher today I added to my existing recent 25 share position buying 10 additional shares today - However, I made a poor trade on it previously on SEPT 23- -Technically, it was trying to make a move out of it's downtrend-and had broken the 50 day ema- Because it is a Financial (investment company/broker) and has been a solid outperformer from it's own ETF funds, I felt it was a sector I wanted to add some individual names in - The market was dropping in September, but i thought- rising rates favoring financials, it was a good potential position - and, as it was making a TRY to break out of the downtrend, I took the trade- It had a swing low @ $202.70, and i bought the reversal move higher @ $210.21.
That move was a promising momentum green bar move back above the declining ema, and it held for just 2 days and then declined, breaking the recent swing low- That is where I failed to set a stop-loss @ $202.00-
I was "busy" but that would have been the correct stop-loss- Risking less than -4% - Instead, i allowed the trade to lose almost -8% $250.00 before I sold for the much larger loss- It also violated the daily PSAR stop level. Fortunately , it was only a 15 share position-
Price bottomed Oct 13, $188.03, and I entered again on 10-15 as the move to get above the downtrend also had a psar BUY on the daily. 25 shares $200.30- Price trended higher , holding above the fast ema for 7 days, but then broke the fast ema with a red bar drop all the way down to the 21 ema. -
Instead of setting my stop directly below that negative bar, I moved it to be above my cost of entry to at least potentially get out at Breakeven . Price made a big upside reversal after opening lower today, and I then added as it moved above the prior $210 level on momentum. Stop was $.70 or so below the low.
This was by far a better execution, and on this breakout surge higher , i will now raise my stop-loss to cover my total cost of both entries, $206. i Also owned this in the IB account, and had a slightly higher stop-loss that unfortunately got filled today - for a minimal gain.
The Daily:



The Hourly:





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@ 11 AM, THE 10 ADD INTO TROW @ $210.is profitable- WITH pRICE PRESENTLY SURGING FROM the $202 low to $215.00- a gain of over 5% so far .





REENTRY SCHW 40 $82.38 -FINANCIAL UNCLEARED FUNDS - HOLD 3 DAYS REQUIRED.

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10-29-21 Futures in the RED, Nasdaq down sharply -100+ due to AAPL and AMZN both disappointing! Both down -3.75; -4.5% premarket.
Even Cramer is casting some doubts on AAPL supply shortages in the short term-
Exxon earnings and CVX earnings both beating - Should put a boost into the energy sector. I own XLE and CVX. May add back.


Yesterday's closing performance ranks- Today is Friday- it should be interesting to see what the week's shift ends up affecting.



Added to CVX 17 shares @ open; bought 100 XLE with uncleared funds. This trade started off in the green , but later has pulled back...

just as a possible Spec momentum Trade- Bought 10 FB in the IB @ $323.70- using swing low as a stop - FB has been under pressure, hitting a $307 low this week- Zuck both tried to push back on the criticisms in congress and then announces FB will have a new company-name - META trading under a new name for Metaverse- MVIS in December? Stop will use the recent intraday swing low - and potentially it may gain as AAPL and AMZN are selling off on poor earnings?


ADDED 10 TROW IB $216.67

pOST 12:00 TROW still holding it's upside momentum- I'm now overweight in this position with almost 10K -45 shares- ADDING into strength and upside momentum.
because of the overweighting, I will retain a tight stop loss.


Energy initially started off higher, but is pulling back - post 10 am. FCG stops out for a net loss.
The demand for Oil/energy continues to be strong relative to the supply
XLE has a stop @ $57.00 in the IB with a cost basis of $55.52

I've missed having free cash to get back into Tech- Spec on FB , but the better money can be found in the 2 trending giants- MSFT, GOOG>
just added back 100 F @ $17.23 up move after it tested the gap today and moves higher!


TROW making a round trip on the day after peaking mid day!



Markets Close at Record Highs!

Here's the WEEK END Performance Chart- Market rotation - Energy slipping away to be the underperformer for the week!

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End of WEEK Summary- Treading water- being overweight energy and commodities that stopped out this week, Didn't make any progress on a week over week basis- The combined Van $45,878 IB $19.938 total $66,113.00

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October has been a major month for changes, as I rolled over the majority of the vanguard IRA and Roth to Edelman to manage in one of their diversified ETF portfolio models- 15 different ETF positions- including some Bond ETFs . The account is automatically rebalanced when it exceeds certain % levels in it's holdings-and it will shift allocations during periods of market volatility based on the model- I'm Optimistic that this approach will prove to be more volatile but also more profitable than my approach over the past 7 months, and certainly over the longer term market cycles-
I've learned that my Risk aversion is a double edged sword- it keeps me out of most large losses when I maintain my discipline, but it also can cause me to not give price much leeway, and - lock in some smaller gains only to see price rebound higher from the pullback that gets stopped out. And i have to decide- such as F- whether to reenter it at the higher price- Very simply, it's a balancing act that I don't know that I will ever master- I certainly do not intend for a trade that is positive to become a net loser if at all possible.
View this Profit/loss ratio analysis video from Warrior Trading- Winners vs losers - and the importance of eliminating those larger losses - not hoping


While he is an active day trader, the principle applies to all kinds of active trading- The trading psychology spans the entire spectrum from Day trader to Swing, and possibly even the investor. Think about that decline below the 50 ema as bad- what happens if it drops to the 200 ema?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rq0LSX4Je7g


At this point, I don't have any qualms about taking a loss- I've learned over my many trades thats the 1st point that a trade performs against my expectations, is ALSO likely the smallest loss.
Going back and taking the time to annotate charts of trades made over 2021, is a labor to do- I'm just focusing on present holdings- but some I have held positions in many times- in the Vanguard funds-
ARKQ- It turns out that I had traded in the one Van account ARKQ more than 10 Buys- and some split position sells. The total $ value of the trades exceeded $50k, and the net profits - after deducting for some stupid entries and taking losses- amount to approx $1,400 or just 2.8% of the total combined trades .
Hindsight gives us the benefit to be viewing through 20-20 glasses. As I look back now, I was so preoccupied with the trees, I couldn't see the larger forest- in many respects-
Up through Feb, i had had a number of good trades in the various ARK funds- and I somewhat have drank the Cathy Wood Koolaid- with the exception of selling out of the funds when they declined- but expecting them to recover and again perhaps lead Tech- That didn't haqppen btw. My Bias towards both ARKQ and ARKF -
Robotics and Fintech- suggests to me that these funds should be on the leading edge of these upcoming industries- but perhaps they are just too edgy and ahead of themselves in their holdings.
If I was to compare them to the broad large cap tech- QQQ- those index itself is up 22% ytd while the ARK funds are in the red or marginally profitable.
So, the shift in the markets have cast them aside for more compelling values and areas to invest in- As a trader, I want to know and understand what is becoming in favor- where the momentum may be flowing- As the best example - consider this performance chart of the QQQ's vs the ARKQ- If I get too focused on the idea of 1 position within a category is the best position, i may be blinded to the reality of the broad index outperforming and -yes-with less Risk!
While ARKQ -like the other ARK funds was a real barn burner in early 2021- that certainly did not stay the case for the following 8 months to date.
So, it pays to not get too set in one's view based on past performance.




So, similarly, the usefulness of the daily and weekly performance charts are to help ascertain when a shift is underway- and signal when a leading group- such as energy- is losing it's momentum and perhaps is on the way out.
As i recognized this in September, it helped me better align myself in what was in favor-energy, commodities- and thus able to net some decent gains while the markets sloshed around a bit- Well, I got pulled back into energy the way the markets started Friday at the open- but they made a total pivot over the course of the day.
The Post Mortem: sometimes in the midst of making a trade decision, we act based on the information at hand at that moment in time- Information can constantly be in flux, or changing- and by looking back over our charts and our trade decisions- days, weeks, or even months later, whatever the noise we were experienceing at the time of the trade is likely no longer with us- or it's something entirely different today than it was at that time. If one was diligent, they would keep a notebook and write down the rationale for each and every trade when it is made, and later compare it-in the charts- with what actually evolves- If one includes their assumption- or bias for the trade decision- to Buy- to Sell, or even to Hold- it may prove insightful.
As the year evolved, I often began seeking earlier entries using a faster time frame chart, as well as potential exits-

There were prior trades in 2020, but the focus is on this 2021 year.:
B-100 $76.49- Buying in an uptrend on the trend continuation higher - a prior 2nd bar had Closed below the fast ema- Entry didn't wait on the range high to be
broken above-ONE Good Trade.
Sell 50 (1/2 the position) From the entry, Price momentum strong, paused for 3 days, broke out higher 1 day- then had a sharp pullback to the ema and well into
the prior 4 day base- One Good Trade & by only sellin 1/2, it allowed the next leg higher to move up.
Sell 50 Jan 29- The Jan 25 green bar closed above the recent 3 day base- and above the fast ema. Followed by an inside bar, then a lower doji penetrates the
lower base area and Closes right at the fast ema while penetrating through it- This low close and penetration would have me set a stop at the low of that
bar- taken out 2 days later as price declines back towards the 21 ema.
Buy 100 $90.34- despite selling the day before, price makes a recovery move back above the fast ema- and was bought- Potential trend resumption -One Good Trade.
Feb 17- Sell 100 $96.73 potential break of trend- and into the gap made a week earlier- One Good Trade as price gaps lower the next day down to the 21 ema.
Feb 19 BUY- Price gaps up higher and appears to be making an attempt to resume the uptrend- Questionable trade- EMA starting to decline, sell volume high,Macd -0
Feb 22- Gap down lower open- Sell 50 + Sell 50 - below the declining fast ema, Closes below the 21 ema. One good trade
Mar 2 B-100 $88.90 Premature entry - it appeared price was ralling and would break above the fast ema- but did not- Stop-loss was set at the prior swing low
red bars, but should have been set at the blue bar low Close-~!It would have stopped out for $2 more than the $85.56 it sold for! One BAD Trade!
Mar 9 - B-25 on a 1st thrust out of a downtrend (Risky) Use of a smaller position size prudent- 1st thrusts often fail. as do V recovery- small gain -
Bad- due to a Risky trade despite the positive sell for a gain.
Jun 25 - This entry was on a range breakout , but could have been made days earlier on the green bar above psar - Small loss- poor trade entry good stop-
AUG 10- range breakout- reduced position size- followed by an add on the pullback to the 200 -prior low (support level) Sold for a small gain- WHY struggle
to make or force something when it's in a base/sideways range? Find better opportunities elsewheres- just because this was "familiar" .Good sell
Oct 4- testing the waters using the faster time frame on pullbacks for an entry- The price pulled back very slightly and was above the entry but was sold to
lock in a $40 gain.- Had the stop been held at the entry cost- those 40 shares would be worth $300.00 - not $40. POOR SELL
Oct 25 - Price is coming back to the range resistance, looking for a potential breakout here. Modest increase in buy volume.



cATCH tHE fINAL bar -SUMMING UP THE WEEK TECHNICALLY

www.youtube.com/watch?v=e2a44oQDRaA&list=PLyNJu-3PikrS8Qs5_LwIK4LOpkDp8z-uO&index=1

As he points out in the final minutes- 3 charts 3 minutes- ENERGY -XLE has been outperforming, but weakening recently-
Since i locked in gains in the XLE, I was quick (too quick) To add back to that same position as it appeared to initially make an upmove off the recent pullback.
Coming up this week: The money show -3 days of presentations on different aspect of trading/investing/- some are free- David Keller and Julius discuss RRG/sector rotation on day 2 -(I think)
online.moneyshow.com/2021/november/virtual-expo/full-schedule/