WEEK 2- Jan 10-2020

[sd]

SD taking TSLA, IRA VIXY short, Spiderman EXAS long default
The Charts:

stockcharts.com/public/1675108

[sd]

Markets All in the Green!
2020- The HORSE RACE 1-6-2020 SPIDERMAN'S EXAS LEADS + 5.93% , IRA +4.17%, SD + 2.51%

[sd]

2020- The HORSE RACE 1-7-2020 Elon's dance steps in China- SD leads +6.49, Spiderman + 6.38, IRA +4.56
All making gains when the markets were down!

[sd]

2020- The HORSE RACE 1-8.-2020 SD'S -TSLA +11.7%, SPIDERMAN'S EXAS +7.7%; IRA'S VIXY SHORT +6.41 %-
SOLID GAINS THIS WEEK!

Who SOLD everything they owned when they heard that missles were flying in the Middle East and just Knew the Sky Was Falling and the end was nigh? Or took short positions???
And Yet, we Closed today at all-time Highs on the indexes! Looked Grim overnight EHH?

If you held off putting money to work in 2020- or sold before because the market was too high and over valued and ripe for a correction, and yet it keeps pushing new highs, take comfort in knowing that Yes- eventually, you will be right. In the meantime, those that continue to hold long, keep sliding up those stops!- not too tight! As long as price continues to Close above an uptrending 5 ema, stay with the TIDE- trail a wider stop-loss- If January earnings come in meeting or exceeding expectations, this bull likely has another leg up during the month. Trend is your Friend!
JMHO.

Let me add- had their been casualties and US retaliation, that actual conflict would be a valid reason to raise cash- At least this moment in time turned out to be a false alarm- as have many that have occurred in the past. That which we fear is often worse than the future we are actually given.

stockcharts.com/public/1675108

[sd]

2020- The HORSE RACE 1-9 -2020 SPIDERMAN'S EXAS LEADS + 11.7%, IRA +9.7%, SD +9.28
Markets pushing new highs! TSLA slowed a tad, Spiderman jumps higher!
Having Edit issues in updating the public chart list- OK- that worked tonight-

[sd]

Congrats to Spiderman and IRA - SD has slipped into 3rd place .
EXAS keeps on trucking higher, and Ira's VIX short gained all week, despite the tepid Market Close.
PreClose- I'll add in the gains after the Close.

The Horse Race 1-10 Spiderman GETS THE WIN + 11.09%, followed by IRA, +10.27, SD SLIDES BACK +8.5%

[ira85]

Congrats Spiderman for picking a big winner to start the new year. Re: TSLA, I would be anxious if I was holding TSLA. Elon's choice to smoke marijuana while being interviewed last year seemed like a remarkably juvenile stunt. It causes me to question his judgement. That and his seeming penchant to grandstand leads me to think he's vulnerable to underestimate risk and put his companies into very difficult situations. Genius? I think his reach may exceed his grasp.

Taking VIXY short has been a good strategy recently, but I'm concerned one day, possibly soon, there will be bad news that will have a domino effect on the markets that could get ugly. VIXY shoots up and my short sinks like a stone with genuinely big, bad news. I don't want to hold it then. Of course lots of market commentators have been predicting a correction or worse for a long time. They have been labelled perma bears. I'm afraid they are right, but early. But if the market scares me, what options do I have? I could short SPY . . . or maybe have a root canal without medication. How about picking a winner on a relentless track higher, say AAPL. True it can't keep going like it has for the past 4 years, but for now it's running like a top. It seems like any selling is met by those looking to join the parade. As strong as it has been I'm guessing it would hold up better than most during the first part of a market down turn. Participate in the upside and suffer less in the downside. So this week I'll join the parade.

AAPL long. Stop @ 301. -ira

[sd]

IRA, What will be your selection for a defaultr pick for 2020? I get your hesitancy with VIXY short-?
I agree with your TSLA assessment- I think ELON has learned to develop some restraint since those earlier events- Pot- Pushing the SEC, etc...but as forward looking as he may be, the proof ultimately comes down to meeting the investors expectations- I'll take TSLA again this week, with a stop-loss at the 20 ema $428.50 .....

[ira85]

After I finished the post above I remembered SD made some very thoughtful observations about AAPL in his December 24 post. He noted AAPL had a two year average annual gain of 33.6% for 2018 and 2019. But that same two year period had a gut wrenching drawn down that turned a 36% annual gain to early October into a 7% loss by late December 2018. It was the over 100% gain in 2019 that saved the two year out performance results. Strong performance and momentum didn't save AAPL from that correction. I'm over simplfying to think it can weather another risky situation without another draw down.

What would I have done if I had been holding AAPL and saw it dropping and a substantial gain was disappearing. My history has been to buy and hold. I've tried to learn a thing or two about more active trading, but I have only done it ocassionally and with speculative stocks. So if I had been holding AAPL in all likelihood I would have held it and would still be holding it today. I'm doing that with MO right now. Great long term performer currently going through a difficult time. How will it work out? It might be like AAPL and come back. Or it might be more like GE. We'll see. I've certainly had buy and hold decisions blow up on me. I've under-performed by being too conservative, e.g. holding a good bit of cash and holding some poor performers for too long. Frequent trading and buy and hold both have risks. SD did some back testing to see how some different strategies impacted his results. I love that. Empirical results, not just opinion. Keep up the good work SD! -ira Oh, yes I want ViXY short as my default. But AAPL long this week.

[sd]

Thanks for sharing IRA- You bring up the quintessential question- Investor or trader- or a bit of both- I would like to offer some further comments when I have more time available - - I will copy your post, and respond to it in the same entry in the 2020 strategies thread. SD