SD-2020 TRADING WITH THE TIDE

[ira85]

I had a Crazy 8 ball when I was young- it would be right at least 50% of the time
I hadn't thought of it that way, but you may be right. It's too good. If it worked well, wouldn't someone have found it already.

SNAP is working wonderfully. It's interesting to see how you are following it and making decisions on when to let it ride and when to stop it out. The way you are following SNAP and doing it on that giant monitor, it does seem like you are officially a day trader.

Maybe we should all be asking ourselves if Bitcoin is too good. Here's an article that is the most bullish piece I think I've ever read. The author sees Bitcoin changing the investment world as cryptocurrency becomes a new asset class.
seekingalpha.com/article/4381145-bitcoin-is-biggest-legal-front-running-opportunity-ever-seen-pal?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=bitcoin-is-the-biggest-legal-front-running-opportunity-i-ve-ever-seen-pal&utm_campaign=nl-macro-view&utm_content=link-0

Unlike the technical indicator that seemed to good to be true, I can see each of the author's points and they seem to hold water. I have a very small position in Bitcoin in my IRA. Hardly anyone has such a position. Think what would happen if 10% of everyone with a pension account decided in the next few months they need a little Bitcoin. Instead of backstopping with gold, put half of that gold position into Bitcoin. The supply/demand change could be huge. Bitcoin could be off to the races. Bitcoin FOMO. Do you think you'll buy a ticket on the Bitcoin speculation? -ira

[sd]

That was fun following Snap and comparing the application of PSAR for trailing stops . And locking in some profits at the Close didn't hurt either-
I'll pursue this approach more as I get the time, with other active positions- Works well during trending periods- I'm curious if Snap's last minute break out to close at the high will see another move higher Monday....While I was playing Day trader- a number of my positions were seeing partial stops executing...


Bitcoin- I think having some small % exposure to Bitcoin /crypto currency is a smart bet. I actually do have some exposure holding ARKK, ARKF- as crypto exposure is in both of those funds as a % of their holdings- (I believe crypto exposure is in both funds.) I 1st became aware of ARK funds when they had a 100% + return a few years ago based on their early position in bitcoin/crypto -
Interesting times we are in- Transformation into digital currency may see Gold used as paper weights in the new economy. I certainly don't understand it, but that's why I'm content to own it through a diversified fund whose focus is on disruptive innovation.
I traded RIOT 2 years? ago...-A failed pharma venture turned to remaking itself as a crypto play- Knew it was a sham ploy - but jumped on the momentum- I think @ $12, it went to $48 - and I then stopped out @ $24. RIOT Went Down to -.50 and now it's up to the $3+-
Something like GBTC has held up better than RIOT But - certainly did not hold it's value in the March sell-off- dropped below $6 but now back up to $14.

Lunch is over-Have a good weekend-

[sd]

Monday- Not a happy market day 10-26- everything lower-except ZM- All indexes down on increased Corona virus spread....
My stop in TDV in the Van account never activated- Decided to tighten the SNAP stop-loss for the remaining position on today's decline-
Net -down 3k in one day- Elected to tighten stops but keep partial positions in ARK funds.
Presently am now 50% cash position as partial stops executed- I intend to hold some partial positions , and repurchase -ideally at lower costs-

[ira85]

I like your idea about buying more ARK funds. I want to get some after the election issues calm down.

These are the first five articles on Seeking Alpha this morning, October 27.

Sentiment Speaks: Something Bad Is About To Happen. Avi Gilburt

I Have A Bad Feeling About This. Victor Dergunov

Coming Stock Market Crash: Preparing For The Next Black Swan Event. By The European View

Why So Many Bears Were Wrong And Why Stocks Will Fall The Next 2 Months. John Early

Why Debt-To-Income Ratios Are Worse Than They Appear. Lance Roberts

I have been bearish and under invested for years. I was wrong and I've left a lot of gains on the table. Now I see these headlines and I wonder,
Was I right but early and the world is finally coming to see what I saw long ahead of them?
Maybe this is a counter indicator, one of those negatively correlated indicators telling us with so many bears there is plenty of room for the market to go up?
Or the election is one week away and sentiment says the outcome will be bad for stocks.
Or, this is just the opinions of the authors and it has no ability to move markets or predict markets except in the very short term. Tomorrow these opinions will be forgotten and the market will be move on to the next day's issues. -ira

[sd]

That's a lot of negative sentiment from the looks of those SA headlines-
The unknown is truly scary- what the financial repercussions may be pending the political outcomes-
Personally I have reduced my market exposure via stops- but I intend to hold reduced positions in all of the ARK funds- as a core focus in my Van Roth account-without stops.
I have not done this in recent years, , so it is a leap of faith that I may regret- I anticipate that we go lower , and I will be able to lower my average costs by a greater decline- in the weeks ahead. The caveat there , is that I do not need these funds for my present lifestyle- which is relatively frugal- If I were to lose 50% in the value of holding these funds, it would not affect my standard of living -even once I retire-
If you elect to consider being active in managing some investments on your own, it is also my responsibility to point out that you have mentioned that your diagnosis may include the onset of possible early stage dementia- So, the responsible recommendation I would make is that you take perhaps 5% of the assets you manage, and use those in your actively managed account-and the remainder you entrust to a different professional advisor -with a more conservative focus and lower risk exposure than your present adviser.
Your primary focus will be for your assets to be secure and provide for your and your wife's future needs- and need not to be gambled in the active stock market. I would strongly encourage you to put the 95% into the hands of a reputable professional fiduciary advisor that will protect your primary goals for that which you have worked for all these years.
This is why you were so conservative for all those years- NOW is not the time to change that conservative perspective that guided you for so many years...
But- if you have the resources, and a small % to keep you engaged-in the market with live positions... perhaps 5% or less- I would think that the ARK funds hold great potential- and also great volatility Patient Swift - a silent reader of this Site- and a long-time friend- also suggested the merits of you getting engaged on a small scale...
I would assume that you could fund a trading account with an initial $5K that could be assumed to be loseable…. and that would not jeapordize your financial foundation for yourself or your wife- but nothing beyond that, as there can be a steep learning curve- The attitude one needs to have is to Learn before one earns- and to be able to learn the process of limiting Risk and yet allowing a winning trade to yield a longer term gain- albeit with some volatility as the norm-
I would suggest with a $5,000.00 account- to consider to take 5 separate positions- 20% each- SPY, QQQ, ARKK, then 10% in ARKG, ARKF,ARKQ,ARKW. -AND PRACTICE TRREND TRADING WITH EACH OF THOSE- With commissions no longer a factor for the investor/trader, one can buy and sell partial positions at minimal or No costs.
With that account , you could also test your application of using technical analysis and employ stop-losses -
But- by no account should you put any significant amount of your hard earned funds at Risk in a trading strategy- Just consider a small account you can afford to lose money in- because there is indeed a learning curve -over time- that comes with a price to play.....However, staying active and in touch with the market's gyrations can be a good source of mental input- because of the variables- If you so choose to get engaged on a limited scale, I think that may be a healthy mental exercise to pick up applying TA to your positions, and trying your hand at taking on some very limited Risk. Should you decide to put a toe in the water- …………… Of course, I'm down 13K from my August highs...
SD

[sd]

10-28 Snap sold at the open- GE stopped out yesterday preearnings and is up +7% today- no place to hide in today's sector /index wide sell-off.
My positions are further reduced- I have had several stop with limits -VXUS not executed as prices gapped to open below the stop-limit


Wow-big sell off - Each index down over -3% on Covid fears and possible future economy shutdowns again....and the unknowns about the election results-
Stops hit- and I'M down to about a 30% market exposure with what I think I will hold-
Austrailia had a 111 day lockdown and now no covid cases- France just starting a new lock down-and Germany....
Normally, I would now be in cash- but I do not think we crash that hard- and so I'm allowing myself to do something adverse to my normal risk adverse approach- hold some smaller % of core positions without stops- believing that I will again be able to repurchase shares at a lower price and lower pe THAT WILL - bring down my present holding costs....

[sd]

3rd try to post an update tonight- internet ?
Ended the week all in cash in the trading account- stopped out with gains this wek with the remaining SNAP,GE,ZM using the Renko charts with PSAR for stops- and glad i did-15.4K
Nice net YTD gain

However, my decision to hold some core positions in Vanguard IRA sees me below 190k- ahead of the the market for the yTD- but I've given back 10K in gains since August....Edit- actually -15k now from the high.
Will evaluate this decision eventually- Actually kept active some tech dividend ETF, and an equal weight tech fund-

Despite the net loss in account value- I view this as a learning exercise- I'm up approx 11k but down 50% from my August highs- about 22k.
I'm well ahead of the benchmark SPY's YTD- return. Overall, i believe the tighter stop-loss approach i'vd applied in the trading account retains more of the net gains, lessens the % loss , and manages to outperform wider stops and greater losses.
Much of this is the subjective application of stops.....and a more methodical approach- such as the Renko framework- with PSAR -would likely yield a more consistent return...

[sd]

11-1-20- Notes :


I hadn't viewed the individual charts much this week- but as I do so now, as price has dropped below the 50 ema and the fast ema , prices are now approaching those prior September lows- However, we are still in an overall uptrend on the weekly charts- fast weekly emas all in ascending order- but we had a lower high 3 weeks ago, and the fast weekly ema is turning down- and would cross the weekly 10 ema this week if we weaken further. Viewing the major indexes SPY,QQQ.

I elected (Perhaps regretfully) and still have not- put stops on the final portions of those positions in the Van account. I had initially elected to hold partial positions, knowing we were pulling back,
and believing that I will be a buyer at lower prices in the Van IRA- expecting prices will bounce back higher.(HOPE) . BUT, As I view the charts now , and see the fast 5, and 10 ema are now breaking below the 50- and prices approaching those September lows- feel I should have not been so willing to consider the "Investor" approach- and essentially ignore my smaller positions - As we approach the prior swing lows of September- it's a race to tie with the elections- we ideally will see a bounce higher- but perhaps instead we see a greater sell-off like we had in 2018- losing 20% from September to Dec 24....However, despite the pullback we are presently in, we are still in an uptrend on the weekly charts-
I have to admit I regret seeing the decline of profits- and KNOW I would have been better off applying my tighter stop-loss approach- exiting at higher prices- This is also the 1st weekly Elder Impulse bar (QQQ,SPY that is in the red- the last time that occurred, was the start of the March sell-off. Typically, a 1st red bar is followed by a further decline-or weakness. and so I may get off my abdicated arse and put stops in based on the low of the week in the Van IRA-
Wife went all-in and sold her ZM @ $499.00 I think mine sold $509. (Renko stop) Trading acct: Remaining 17 snap sold $40.20 Took losses on NDAQ, ARKG, gain on ARKF----
I just haven't been as focused on the markets -or my positions this week- Got to get reinvigorated! I do not plan to hold if we break the uptrend-and it certainly appears that likely will occur- We sold off on good productivity numbers this week, so the market perspective sees an increase in Covid and possible fall explosion in illness, the politics, and a dire situation for the millions of Americans whose jobs are gone, will not return, and will be facing mortgage defaults and evictions in Jan. Certainly not a lot to hold a false optimism...Biden is ahead in the polls- and I do not know how the markets will view him as the winner with higher taxes for business, more restrictions on business - and higher taxes for more wealthy individuals. Tax cuts will be repealed-

[sd]

11-1-2020 Just added partial stops at the prior lows to contain the bleeding-in the Van IRA

[sd]

11-3

Election day- Futures all up, Added stop limit orders in the trading account to buy on higher moves ARKK<ARKF<ARKQ<FCX
EOD- Filled on the 3 ARK funds orders, FCX gapped over my limit, did not fill.
Hard to determine what has prompted today's rally.....Anticipated election results? Potentially we will not know until several days from now with the tally of mail in voters-
As I watch some early results, Trump appears to be holding NC, OHIO, VA. GA -Ohio going to Biden -early But it's premature and too early to make any projections-
Today's market rally-??// Is the market projecting a higher tax- more regulation -democratic win???
Tomorrow will give more clarity- but if the market futures are higher again tomorrow- I'll continue to add some long positions-
Can't stay up that late though tonight to witness the projected results....

[sd]

Buying Tech-
PM add- Tech rallied hard- I'll review this pm QQQ up 3.85% !
Did some buying in the IB account, as well as the Van-
Only stock I added today was ZM $370.10- Close entry, near the Point of Failure- should the markets reverse- so it provides an optimal entry to control the loss.
I added back into ARK funds, TDV,VXUS,VGT, RYT, VXUS...
and bought back into icln, and Grid....

[ira85]

On Oct 27 SD wrote some well reasoned suggestions for me regarding taking a small amount and use it to practice trend trading and letting an advisor manage the vast majority of I disagreeets. (I don't know what
I disagreeets are, but I can't seem to edit it out).
And maybe change advisors. I will certainly consider it. The main alternative I'm considering is to turn the whole IRA over to the advisor. It occurred to me that keeping a small amount from the IRA may make the book keeping more difficult and raise the risk of mistakes, like failing to take annual mandatory minimums. I just hit age 70 and I haven't done a mandatory minimum yet. But if I was to have an advisor do all of the IRA management then I would have to use a taxable account for the practice trading. That could be complicated book keeping also. It occurs to me that maybe I should give up my investing hobby and put my energy into some other activity. Maybe physical fitness. Vigorous exercise is good for Parkinson's disease. I exercise a lot already, so stepping it up some more should be pretty doable. I didn't expect you to take so much time with your response. But I do appreciate your feedback. Always well thought out. Thanks!!

The market's response to the election seems to defy logic. Lots of people said the worst case scenario would be an election that was too close to call and the process of determining the winner could drag on and on. Lots of uncertainty. Uncertainty would be bad and would trigger selling wouldn't you think? So Tuesday morning, election day, the market shot up and kept going up even after the uncertainty became clear. No sign the market had any problem accepting the uncertainty of the election. The history of predicting market movements based on news stories is fairly bad. That is, reviewing news events and checking to see what the market did in the near term after the event has found no useful pattern. My impression is we should look at the charts and make our buy and sell decisions from that info and leave news events and prediction of news events out of the decision making process. I heard one yesterday. Quite a few advisors had suggested reducing positions in over-valued big cap tech and investing in infrastructure companies if Biden wins. So what did the market do? Biden seemed to be leading. Big cap technology stocks shot up. Lets hope the outcome of the election can be determined in an orderly, lawful process. -ira

[sd]

I totally get what you are saying about simplifying your life- That's not a bad decision -
There may be some cognitive benefit to having a small account to "Play"- win or lose, but I've also considered the same for myself-
How much of my free time do I want to spend following the gyrations of the markets? And I should be exercising myself...LOL!


That noted, If you decided to have that small trading account, I would suggest to make it a ROTH account- No capital gains- and I do not think any RMDS are required from a Roth.
They postponed RMDs until age 72 - unless you fall into that -turned 70 time frame that does not see the RMDs delayed .

So True about anticipating the markets reactions - Markets seem to be finding the potential election results with a divided government to be a benefit-Go figure-
Very often I interpret How the market "should" react- what I think may be logical - the market often disregards after a minor reaction to whipsaw me.
Republican Senate would likely block radical social engineering from the far left.
Yes, and contrary to expectations- TECH leading, but the rally appears to be wide across many sectors.
I'm all-in ARK funds in the trading account- and added to positions in the Van accounts- including ARK funds in the Van Roth- I held a partial position in those funds as they pulled back, and overall now back into the green in the Roth- Still Down .5% in the Van IRA positions I held onto-
I increased positions yesterday, will do so again today as futures look to indicate market rally is broadening out.
SD

[sd]

Rally continued 11-5-20 . Markets appear ready to acknowledge a new President- to be held in check by a republican senate- Do not want to make this about the politics- simply felt the Republican President favors business and deregulation much more than the Democratic Biden- and i believe the economic prosperity of this country will be the engine that moves us forward- beyond Covid-
Market rally floated me back into profitable territory on my positions- At a brand new incremental High in the Trading account, and just -5% behind my August highs in the Van Accounts.
Biggest weekly win streak for markets since 1982? -Since periods of excess momentum often correct- Friday will be an opportune time to review where to establish stops and retain profits ....
I doubled down on some of my positions, essentially reducing my avg cost of those partial positions I had held. That has now put each position into the green-

The trading account is 100% in the various Ark funds- i believe my approach there will be to follow with tighter trailing stops- perhaps Renko 2 hr with PSAR
Van Roth- Primarily ARK funds with smaller %spec stocks positions in CNBS,DKNG,TDOC, ZM
I mixed it up more in the Van IRA- the larger account:
I left a small 1.5 % energy position alone- VDE, added back into a social ESG fund ICLN 2.5% , FCX stock 1% , Grid 3%; GUNR 1.5%; OUSM small caps 2%; RPAR .5%;
RYT - equal weight tech 2.5%; TDV- Tech dividend aristocrats- +5%, VGT- TECH large cap 5%, VOOG- S&P 500 growth -7%, VTI- total market -7%, EEM 2.5% INtl VXUS 5% ;
XLB materials 3.5%, Holding 18% in cash....

With tomorrow off from work-it will be the end of a remarkable rally week, and the opportunity to establish some stops - and potentially to consider if I want to put any more of the cash position into play....GLD had a range breakout today... ? Why?

[sd]

Electoral counts still undecided- Biden leads slightly in PA- A lot of push back on the President's speech proclaiming fraud in the voting booths-
Markets flat today- Ark funds continue to gain.
Markets up large for the week....S&P up 7%, Nas Up higher- Tech continues to rally...Good job gains/employment numbers today- but still a large % unemployed
Overall, Market wide rally this week- but undecided today-
I've gone ahead and placed stops on all positions- I'm within 4% of my all-time high- and I have a larger % exposure in funds presently-
For stops- I have initiated stops with limits - based on PSAR values on a 2 hr Renko chart- This seems to be a compromise with arbitrarily selecting stops based on a discretionary view of the charts.
I still favor the Elder Impulse signals on a daily chart, but viewing that chart style along with the 2 hr Renko looks to be very compatible-
The PSAR value- I use the standard and a faster Psar to consider for trailing stops and also- Buy-Stops to go long.
I did add a few smaller stock positions- Had to buy some TDOC- did not participate in this week's rally, but it gives a tight stop- relative to the entry- and with Covid increasing ... it likely continues to gain- On a spur of impulse- DKNG-
ZM up for the week- and bought some CNBS- Seymour Amplify cannibus fund ETF.- Some 5 states legalized marijuana-
My decision to set stops on the majority of all positions is in part a reaction to my holding some partial core positions into this recent decline-
In this month's approach, should we have a market decline, most of my positions will be stopped out -
In the trading account, I am 100% in ARK funds- spread across ARKK,ARKF,ARKQ,ARKW,ARKG value approx $15,600.00
In the Van Roth- I also overweight the ARK funds- as the majority of my positions there- With a few small spec stock positions for variety- ARK funds =90% of the account-48k +/- and a smaller position in the spec CNBS, dkng,tdoc,zm - Present value  $57,850.00

In the VAN IRA- I hold 16 positions- with a bit of diversity- When a Vanguard advisor talked to me about managing my account and saving me the trouble- this past spring, Their approach was 2 large bond funds and 2 broad market funds- VTI, VXUS- and that was it-
Both of those funds are worth having broad market exposure in - so I have 6% in VTI, and 5.5% in the intl VXUS in this account-I had also allocated all of this past year's company IRA to go into eem and new frontier emerging markets- and that has made a decent gain.
Since my Roth account is about 25% of the IRA account- I use the Roth for the more speculative growth side of my overall portfolio- not that anyone should mirror- my actions- Presently, That account is $57,863.00- and relies on outperformance in the ARK funds to grow faster than the Van IRA. 9K in the 4 stocks- remainder in Ark funds.
Van IRA -138,960 is distributed more widely among large index etfs and a few narrow focused ETFs and still has 35K in cash -
I'm holding almost all ETFs in this account- with the exception of FCX- but may add some small individual positions-
I failed to get back into Tan after this pullback- looking to get back in-
I somewhat try to intentionally diversify this account- across some wider sectors- and not lump everything together- The allocation size is largely discretionary- I feel the very large indexes offer greater safety and more diluted growth or decline potential vs the smaller positions.
FCX- $1900 present position that I will add to....
GBTC- Bitcoin exposure- $1700.00
VDE -energy $2500.00
VWO- eemerging $4,800
VGT- TECH 10,000
VOOG- S&P growth $14,000
VXUS, INTL- $11,000
VTI- Total market- $12,000
GRID, - Elec infrastructure ETf $6,000
GUNR- nat resources- 3K will add to this
RYT Tech equal weight $5,600
ICLN- Clean Energy $5,000
OUSM Small cap val dividend $4,000
TDV- Tech dividend $12,000
XLB- Materials $6,800.00
RPAR 1,000.00
FCX $1,900 may add to this
GBTC 100 shares- OTC stock gamble $1700
$35,000 cash to deploy

I  want to get some added ESG exposure - I had held ESGE- and need to do some homework 
I also want to add TAN- solar exposure-  failed to get in on this bounce this week-  
I think the social governance ETFs and Solar  makes sense going into 2021- 
One of the features of the PSAR indicator is that it offers a potential trailing entry buy-stop price  as it follows  a price that is declining- it often does not capture the exact bottom- but it's worth looking at  before one jumps in  a downtrend and sees one or two rally days- whipsaw that fails.
Alan Farley- Hard right edge- years ago - promoted the concept- to take the earliest entry possible with a defined closest loss being the point where the trade  had failed- to perform on a reversal higher.   This concept aligns with buying at the lower trend line- or bottom of the trading range.
The simple appeal here is  to use a  faster time frame  to  engage with an entry  that is Close to the prior swing low  and thus have a minimal loss % wise...Parabolic  Sar- PSAR offers a price entry value  above the declining price- And using this in the Renko charts looks like a viable entry-stop approach. 
We appear to have moved higher this past week- solidly across the indexes.