SD-2020 TRADING WITH THE TIDE

[sd]

Finding the best advisor: Saw this article - Some guidelines:
article.smartasset.com/financial-advisor-mistakes-18/?utm_source=gdn&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=gdn__falc_stringo_famistakes_smart_display&utm_term=www.barrons.com&utm_content=109404386055&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIgYr3gtHw7AIVmgNoCB1crgXYEAEYASAAEgJ9pvD_BwE

I think it's prudent to consider interviewing a few different Fiduciary advisors- and comparing between advisors-to find the best match with one's goals and Risk tolerance.

[sd]

headlines this pm suggest Markets rallying higher on a Biden win- adding to ICLN-

[sd]

Nice Rally on the PFE vaccine news! ARK funds slightly down though, ZM stopped out on a gap down open. Remainder of holdings in the IRA up nicely- Oddly -energy position VDE up 12%, FCX 3.5%- remainder up 1.5-3% except GBTC- down -7% overall gaining - will adjust stops this pm

[sd]

Gollee! Rally was in everything except Tech today!
Took a hard loss on a ZM gapdown as the vaccine news made investors sell coming out of the gagte- and my stop-loss was gapped below for a substantial dropon my 8 shares-
The trading account- ALL ARK funds- and the VAN ROTH- all were in the RED today, and I used the Renko 2 hr with psar to tighten stops- One more drop down day, and my cash position will be large as the markets favored the return to normalcy with the news of a possible vaccine- Of course, this will not be immediate-and millions of doses are needed- but it appears that PFE has a viable vaccine with a high % efficiency combatting the virus.
Thanks to the Van IRA account- which holds some diversified positions, account value increased net net- and is higher on the day-
Some of these moves seem excessive- both to the upside and downside- and so I employed the 2 hr Renko to set and tighten stop-losses.
Will see how this may play out - but overall stops will allow me to tighten up and take profits or smaller losses.

[sd]

11-10 Market cleaned house on All of my Tech positions in the Van Roth and the IB trading account- Lost an average of -2% overnight! That's not too bad in the grand scheme of things, as I now have a larger cash position and an opportunity to consider buying back in at lower prices-Also, While my tech positions in the Roth and IB account got hammered hard, my diverse positions in the VanIRA saw about 50% of the positions gaining .
It's also an experiment in my ability to implement the trailing stops with a 2 hr Renko and PSAR to try to time exits and reentries.
The only position in the Van Roth is a small position in DKNG- Acct down to $54,479.00
IB account is all cash- Down to $15,812.00
Van IRA- $139,747 now with 97k in cash.
While yesterday had started with a big up move across the board, the mid day decline in tech was astounding!
That decline continued today- and cleaned house on my tech exposure-, leaving me back in a large cash position and about 20% of the overall account invested.
My best % gain today was VDE + 2.89%; OUSM small cap dividend play + 1.67%; GUNR +1.50%; XLB 1.18%, RPAR +.40%; and VXUS + .32%
Sold out of the Van IRA was vwo,vgt,voog,vti,ryt,icln,fcx.
sTILL HOLDING grid, tdv , gbtc - UNABLE IN AFTER HOURS TO HAVE SET A REASONABLE STOP-LOSS ON THE LAST 2...

Overall, I am comfortable with having stopped out early in the volatile market shift into "value" - I'm a believer in that Tech is the engine that drives the future of our society- but it may also have been significantly overpriced - the market seems to overshoot in both directions- and so I will be positioning to reenter into the Ark Funds- at lower prices...
In the interim, small cap value - and value itself- may have a short term boost-
I think the ESG theme plays- have merit in this political environment as well- so I will consider adding back into ICLN,increasing materials, FCX, GUNR,OUSM
and possibly adding more % wise into this trend shift-
I think a water ETF makes sense to be a part of a portfolio- will look to add one of those on a global scale-

I should also add that the net loss due to a single stock dropping well below the stop-loss (ZM) certainly is one of my largest losses. Fortunately, it was not a very large position- but the 8 share loss was considerably greater than the typical drop in an ETF- Good example of the higher Reward- Higher Risk when owning individual stocks

One of my criticisms of holding a Vanguard brokerage account is in the inability to set a stop-loss at the desired level in the after hours -
A large number of the positions I own show ridiculous low bid offers and Vanguard defaults to that low offer-

[sd]

Added back some ARK funds- partial positions- Applying the 2hr Renko with PSAR as a guide- Did not get to see any part of today's rally until the late afternoon-
I do not think the tech sell-off is over in just a couple of days-

[ira85]

I'm with you SD, I don't think the tech sell-off is over. Since March the market has been very volatile, but the upward trend has been maintained. I saw this headline Wednesday, "Short sellers lost $5.5 billion so far in November." I've been too cautious, primarily fearing the downside risk of sky high big tech. The headline suggests some big money guys have expected to see more downside too.

I also saw an interesting article about the effect of quick spike up-moves. "Historically, a return of 10% or more in a six-day period has resulted in a stock market that sees “overwhelmingly positive” returns for the next 12 months 95% of the time, according to Tavis C. McCourt, head of institutional equity strategy at Raymond James.

And the sample size of this scenario is pretty large. "There have been 25 times in history when the S&P 500 has risen 10% or more over six consecutive days. The median 12 month return following one of those big 6 day moves has been about 22.7%.

The first time it happened was in 1980. It happened seven times between 2008 and 2010, when the market was finding its footing and searching for the economic rebound from the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

It didn’t happen once between 2011 and 2019, during a steady bull market. Yet it has already happened four times in what has been a volatile 2020." Market Watch

I may be a nervous nelly, but I think there's some risk for things to get ugly before the January 20 inauguration. I don't think that's been priced in. And maybe it's just too remote a risk to merit much risk on trading. I tried 2 trades based on my expectation of some election related turmoil. I bought a little SDS and GBTC. The loss for SDS has just about killed the gain in GBTC. If we're right about the tech selloff having some more downside there may be a chance both of these will end up being profitable.

I hope it's worry about nothing and all will proceed smoothly. It would be nice to see a big gain in 2021 like this article described. -ira

[sd]

Yes, I think we will remain choppy here- The big rally out of tech and into "value" saw my VAN IRA positions benefit- but that move prompted me to also tighten stops- and a number of positions that had benefitted declined- I also added a bit more today into Ark funds-
I also own some GBTC- just 100 shares- but it's trending nicely . Van will not allow me to put a stop-loss order in on it- just a limit sell- Odd as hell imo- and Van also will not allow you to set a stop-loss after hours unless it is below the after hours bid pricing- which often is ridiculously low.
SDS is a difficult trade to get in early on- but you may see some move back higher- Friday- - Because it is a leveraged play, as it goes against you, it can possibly lose more than the 2x potentially.
From the Octy 30 high $16.97, it declined to a low 11-9 $13.19 or a decline of -22%. SPY printed a 322.60 low and a 364.38 high or a gain of 12.9% SPY pushed above it's Sept high this week, and I would suggest that SPY appears to be in a sideways range rather than a breakdown as anticipated. In this instance, I would think you would want to be trading it with an eye on the fast ema, and put trailing stops in place move up under price at the low of the bar aligning with the 10 ema when the position moves back in your direction- but discipline also requires the willingness to take a loss rather than pride forcing you to hold despite what a chart reversing higher tells you...
I hope the Article is right- I want to set my sights on larger gains in 2021-
Good Luck!

[sd]

11-12- Indexes all lower, but fortunately a few positions- including ARK funds - ended higher- It is so odd viewing the Van accounts-The other day- The Roth- All Tech- was in the red and losing- While the Van IRA with more conventional and some ESG holdings gained- Today, the opposite is true- the tech sell-off is seeing some buying today- and the Van Ira saw my tightened stops hit- I had a nice gain in energy in VDE- which stopped out today - locking in the gain- Similar story with VXUS-a fairly large position stopped out..Thank you Renko trailing stops- short term momentum swings.
I'm holding GBTC in the Van IRA- it and RPAR went higher today- otherwise, everything is in the red in that account.
Combined acct $193,936.00 so I'm down a bit.- still -5.5% off the 2020 high...but up on the year overall- Still have 6 weeks to navigate until we wrap up 2020-

This chop and drop market - tough on traders and investors- I was showing some new employees the value of investing, and also the value of having exposure to the tech sector QQQ , compared to the Spy -and typical funds the company offered- When I included a 3 year look back perf chart that included ARK funds- - WOW! what an awakening! Such out performance!
I feel like we are in a sideways chop volatile zone- but I reentered the Ark funds with partial positions- Will we go lower from here? Likely a possibility- but the fast Renko 2 hr will help me lock in gains if we should go higher-
I also added back some ESG- focused- ICLN - holding GRID, and I think the new mandate for the politicians will be supportive of social governance initiatives.
What if all of these positions will be higher in 2021?
CORONA VIRUS is expanding rapidly across the US-Still no Stimulus plan- Over 2,000 people died yesterday- Almost every state is seeing an increase...
On the project site, we informed all employees that masks are now 100% mandatory- and I bought over $400 worth of hand sanitizer to place at intervals around the building.
Our NC project has been relatively lucky with only a few isolated cases- and over 100 people working on the jobsite- with masks- and in relatively close proximity-

However, with the spread of this virus into the holidays, I think the potential for further volatility and fear would be expected.

[sd]

I added to several positions today in a late pm view of the market- - and would have done more, but duty called and I had to pause my bit of buying enthusiasm.
Appears to be a widespread positive- With several possible virus vaccines, improved employment numbers, and perhaps a resolution up coming to questions about who is President... maybe we go higher despite all the unknowns.

[sd]

Took the time to print out the YTD trades , and compare the gains/losses in the Van IRA & ROTH- Did not include the IB account-
It was quite an awakening - $1,460,000.00 in transactions YTD !
Win/Loss ratio in terms of dollars 68% Win 32% losses- $23,892 winning trades, $10,326.00 Losing trades- Seems a paltry gain for the amount of dollars traded!
Edit- I actually took more trades than noted- Print out did not go back a full YTD>
I've got to go rake some leaves and chew on this...

Through portions of the year, I went from all in cash to 95% invested- and levels in between - cautious and timid at times-

Although the $ win-loss ratio is decent, - In the Roth I only had 2 losses- over $400-
Both were on individual trades that turned against me -FSLY activated my stop-loss on a gap down open for a loss of $462.00 on a small 10 share position $1,261.00
Also lost $506 0n just 12 shares of GOOG- Best 2 gains made over the year in the Roth were ARKQ + 3,304, and ARKK $2,412.00- but these were on many trades with trailing stops- ARKK trades added up to 1,340 shares so the average share gain was just $1.80. ARKQ -1,632 shares purchased for a slightly better net avg gain $2.02-
My worst loss in the IRA was in March- as my stops were getting hit relatively early, I thought I'd be smart and take a single defensive position in VFMV- Vanguard Minimum volatility- I purchased 180 shares $ 14,668 and sold it as it dropped with everything else for a loss of $1,092.00 or -7.5%....
Best overall combined trades gains in VXUS- 2,299 shares over the course of the year traded a number of times for a net + $3,676 or + 3.3% gain with $110.00.00 in combined positions. I actually went in early in the March lows and added to my position substantially over a few days.

On the Face of it, That does not seem like much of a gain with $110,000.00 being employed over a number of trades-
My cautious approach initially- is to start out with a 100 share position- and if the trade is moving upwards, I would add another 50 typically- and perhaps another 50 - get stopped out- take a reentry -and I gradually increased share size periodically- The exception- and largest accumulated vxus position I held was 400 shares 7-02 for about a $20,000.00 investment- or 10% of the Port value-

If I had simply started the 2020 year with ($20,000.00) I could have purchased 361 shares- VXUS opened Jan 2 20,000/55.37-
Had I had the stomach to BUY and HOLD- Today those same 361 shares closed @ $56.57 for a gain of $1.20 per share or a net gain of $ 433.00!
My trading with stop-losses yielded $3,676.00 or $3,243.00 higher net gains or 7X the present day return.

Also- Had I been a Buy and Holder of VXUS when the markets tanked in March, I would have seen my 361 share investment of $20,000.00 turn into $12,960.00 for a decline of $7,040.00 or -35%. Most all indexes went down similarly-


Yes, I'm cherry picking my best net $$$ gainer- but I know I could have done better had I gone in with larger positions initially, and applied the same methodology of raising trailing stops. The 400 share entry was the largest I made- And presently I'm back in with a small 101 share position I will be adding to-
I'm not promoting VXUS- as a go-to position- but it's just a part of a diversified portfolio with Global exposure- and a very broad index at that. It is one that Vanguard would have me hold exposure to- along with VTI if they managed my account-
I think there is a better potential for reward to give a bit more slack on the stop-loss -
Since there are still a few browsing this site-I will annotate a chart - but many of these trades- and stops were not part of an exact defined approach-
i.imgur.com/d99qVg8.png

Here's the chart of actual trades made in VXUS- I apparently did not own it at all in early 2020 going into the big March sell-off- As i recall, I only became aware of VXUS because I had had an initial conversation with a a Vanguard Advisor on possibly managing my account, and they disclosed that I would be allocated into 4 positions based on my age - VXUS, VTI, BND,BNDX- @ large stock ETFs and 2 major bond ETFs....
i.imgur.com/zCbJEg2.png
My initial illustration of what a Buy and Hold typical investor would have gained is still accurate, as they would not have had an abundance of free cash to plunk down at the lows. However, I have to note that if I had simply held my prescient buys as positions, I would have over $6,000 in gains on the overall position- double what my stop-loss approach gave me- but you would have had to have been willing to buy early and hold throughout- There were mostly winning trades in the follow up to the March lows- with one larger loss 5-14 - the exception- Also , some late adds into a position-

But, the essence of the approach holds merit, as it is also how I can sleep at night holding more aggressive positions than I should for my "Age" and risk exposure.
With the news of vaccines close to being released, and possibly a new President that wants to rejoin the Paris peace accords and expand global citizenship philosophies,
I think the ESG, and conservation plays work, global ETFs- trade with China- Because Biden and Bo already have their fingers in that pie-
Small caps- I have a small position- may add to OUSM, and add IWM -Also commodities- Not Gold - but I do have a small GBTC position-
I also think socially responsible funds will continue- and I hold infrastructure position with GRID- Clean Water and Solar likely continue to be strong-
I'm considering how to diversify/allocate my portfolio-
I believe in the innovation theme- technology and innovation will be the drivers of the new world economies imo.
So ARK funds will remain a core part of my portfolio to capture that innovation side- Robotics will likely be replacing more and more of our work force as automation becomes the replacement for fragile human workers ...

The relatively large gain vs Buy and Hold in VXUS is simply because i had a large percentage in Cash available during that market wide sell-off- That indeed is what stops also provide- a larger pool of cash assets to deploy when the market decides to shake us out. While sell-offs such as in March are not that uncommon- -20% in 98 , 25% in 2020-
The typical Buy and Hold investor just rides the waves up and down.....
I'm inclined to think we find reasons to go higher into 2021- Blind Optimism if you will- Covid be d**ned...
I will be putting a Buy-stop entry to add to the VXUS position Monday if it breaks out higher-
I think Tech survives - but perhaps more the equal weight vs just the large cap- Will regulation hurt FB, AMZN, GOOG?
Opportunity is here for me to reshape my hodge podge of a portfolio- I want to see a good portion of it exposed to growth sectors, innovation; a small portion allocated to a few individual stock trades- Perhaps that should remain in the trading account-
I will likely put 25% into the various ARK funds-

[sd]

Catherine Woods- ARK funds- November expectations:
ark-invest.com/webinar/november-20-market-update-webinar/

Ms Woods believes the Ark innovation platforms will still outperform into the future-
Bond markets- fixed income- are a bubble? - high yield value likely a warning-
Looking ahead for tech- She feels only 25% of tech companies are innovating- and a headwind with regulation for the very large cap- Fang
Thinks ORCL, INTC, will be disrupted-
She thinks the majority of the S&P companies are fully valued-- with the exception being those innovating companies....

[sd]

I put in orders for the ARK funds- to add to positions- both buy-stops and pullback limits- See how that works out-Tech seems to be in the sell-off mode lately-
I also went long adding some dividend funds- OUSA, OUSM, Exposure to dividend funds small caps and large-
Water fund FIW, Dividend Tech TDV, also an add in VXUS- , Back into VDE, VWO and PRNT- the Ark 3d printing fund- and ICLN...

[sd]

11.16 Futures up- except Tech lower- Rotation out of tech continues-or at least broadens- VGT Tech gained 1% , as did TDV- EQ WT tech dividend + 1.69%

I added a number of positions today- added to VXUS- as the emerging markets theme is both political and global-health wise -
added more into the ESG sectors- GRID, FIW, VWO, GUNR,RYT, IWM ,OUSM ,FCX
Best performers today GUNR +2.79%, FCX + 4.27%, GBTC + 5%, IWM 2.38%, cnbs +2.24%

In the Roth I added PRNT- The Ark fund 3d printing ETF-+.80% but the ARK funds are sluggish- with ARKQ-robotics +.84%
ARKG in the red -0.55%
Holding 57k in cash- in the combined Van accounts-
Hadn't time to invest the trading account-
OK- Just put orders in to BUY dividend ETFs- I own TDV- buying NOBL,SDY,WDIV,REGL
These combined funds are all trending
investorplace.com/2020/04/5-dividend-aristocrat-etfs-build-income-portfolio/

I'm not interested in holding during a trend breakdown- Read a compelling article by "Dividend Sensei" - SA author on the 15 best stocks that passed his screen to provide compelling outperformance-

seekingalpha.com/article/4389196-15-highest-quality-blue-chips-to-buy-market-all-time-highs?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=where-to-park-cash-and-get-yield&utm_campaign=nl-investing-income&utm_content=link-16

My issue is in the loss of principal for the luxury of a small dividend pay-out over time- Why not focus on the dividend payers that are also combining increases in value-
This is a new arena for me to take a position in - Will see how it goes-

[ira85]

Wow!! I read the article by the Dividend Sensei, "The 15 Highest Quality Blue Chips To Buy With Market At All-Time Highs." It appeared 11-16 in Seeking Alpha. That's a lot of work!! I don't think the author stated how many calculations or variables are considered in doing this method of stock analysis, but whatever it is, it's a lot. The author had some fun naming some of the products used in this work. He said this analysis produced an end product, a "Super Magic Formula" ratio the "13-year median ROC/PEG." He refers to these highly rated companies as ROC/PEG SWANs. And collectively these 15 stocks are "an ultra-SWAN retirement portfolio."
At one point he did a 30-Year Monte Carlo Analysis Of These 15 High ROC/PEG SWANs. Thirty years not long enough to assess long-term accuracy? Then he did a 75-Year Monte Carlo Analysis Of These 15 stocks. Wow! Awesome work! Did he take into consideration measures of a company's riskiness. You bet! He looked at 38 metrics to measure a wide variety of risks. He looked at the Piotroski F-score (advanced accounting metric measuring short-term bankruptcy risk). The Altman Z-score (advanced accounting metric measuring long-term bankruptcy risk). And 36 other measures of risks. Amazing!

This system may be tremendously accurate in forecasting which companies will and won't be winners. It may be a Super Magic Formula, but it's too complicated for me to use in real life. There were very few critical comments. How could someone criticise it? Did the critic use it and find fault? Can't do that. Too difficult. I liked the article. Very interesting. But too far over my head to be useful. I will look at his list of 15 stocks and I might buy some to get more invested. That could be a good thing. But next year I'd need to update the portfolio and I wouldn't be able to replicate the system. - ira