Blygh's Trading Journal

[bankedout]

I am considering a trade in TMF

finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TMF&ty=c&ta=0&p=d

Wheat is also starting to strengthen:

finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZW&p=d1

WEAT would be one way to try to capitalize on that.

[sd]

Help out a country boy- The bond market got ravaged as investors fled bonds and searched for Yield- going into stocks to get some gain-Then, bonds put in a floor some weeks ago- it all seemed to coincide with "expectations" of what the Fed would do in the upcoming future- The stock market gains are all due in large part to the Fed policy- and now with a surprise continuation of that same-policy- No Taper- low rates continuing- What causes bonds to now respond favorablY? Why will the squeeze play on bonds not continue?
Wish I had a better grasp of the correlation of the forces that move the markets-
AS a follow-up on that thought- I had traded TLT for a short term trade several weeks ago as an "exercise"- It had made a basing move, and looked to head higher- The trend line was at 106 at that time- Now it has been exceeded and a possible upturn has occurred.
With the Fed's continuation of the present policy, it seems that the TLT had moved in anticipation of a rise in rates (taper) , and WHY should the present continuation of the prior policy now result in a reason for the TLT to Rally higher?
Sorely confused.....

Sd

[bankedout]

The only thing I can think of is that for some reason investors/traders think stocks will not do well going forward and they feel safer moving some of their money to bonds.

I try not to think about reasons why prices would change. I'm just happy that they do change

[sd]

-The "WHY" may indeed be irrelevant from a short term trading standpoint-....
An interesting conference with some big money institutional investment groups & hedge funds-
www.cnbc.com/id/101067072

[blygh]

I am worried - things are going too well - given the deadlock in Washington - given that 1.2 million jobs are being lost- even on a temporary basis (800,000 laid off from the Federal government - plus 400,000 dependent by their spending) - given the anticipated bloodbath over the debt limit - given Europe has 12% unemployment and a falling population - given Japan is raising taxes to reduce government debt - I am just picking stocks and putting on tight stops. Bond-wise I am sticking with munis with a 7% yield
Blygh

[blygh]

Solar stocks making progress - hope it is not a bubble

[sd]

I think a policy of following with tight stops is indeed prudent-
The market has not been rattled with the political rhetoric/impasse yet- Suggests an underlying optimism of a movie rewind and expectations of a higher market-
Eventually the politics is resolved and actual substantive factors such as earnings will again become relevant-SD

[blygh]

From Oct 5
"Solar stocks making progress - hope it is not a bubble "
Oct 8
It's a bubble

[blygh]

I limited out on FNMA at 2.60 and AAMRQ at 7 for tidy profits. Helped make up for drubbing with ZIOP and XRX. Took new positions in DNR, FCX, JASO, ALXN - holding SCTY CSIQ with tight stops
Blygh

[blygh]

Restaurant stocks looking good - holding DAVE RRGB PZZA - may buy back SBUX
Blygh

[blygh]

I bought a basket of railroad equipment stocks

[blygh]

I am starting to get negative - especially materials - I noticed IYM is down along with Australia ETF (EWA) while etf which shorts the Aussie dollar -CROC- is up along with SSG (shorts materials) - We have had a one year very good run and trees don't grow to the sky - but always worried about Santa Claus rally - I am moving to neutral position balancing longs with shorts - I still expect gold to rally
Blygh

[blygh]

Added to my basket of restaurant stocks

[blygh]

Mining stocks showing strength - I will pick up a basket on Monday - may just buy XME ETF -

[blygh]

Chart of the Day -http://www.chartoftheday.com/20131224.htm?H
has an interesting chart of market returns during during mid-term election years. Go away in May takes on greater weight