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Post by blygh on May 11, 2012 18:21:20 GMT -5
Well I sold off the high priced basket two weeks ago - PCLN, AAPL, CMG, TNH all have been taken to the woodshed and thrashed . Am now shorting - steel producers, chemicals, South America,
Blygh
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Post by blygh on Jul 22, 2012 21:10:44 GMT -5
I am picking up a basket ZROZ TMF and TLT - on Monday - July 23rd. maybe some more TIP IPE - national debt limit, Euro crisis, impending automatic spending cuts and tax increases, slowing growth, no improvement in unemployment which will probably rise with spending cuts, but mainly continued falling aggregate demand. Nouriel Roubinini says a downturn is probable - Bernanke thinking about QE3 - = No demands for money -> declining interest rates.
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Post by blygh on Jul 31, 2012 18:38:35 GMT -5
$ days of short squeezes in the two weeks - through it all I held DTO, EFU, RUSS, but bought some off setting longs with very tight stops (USO, EEM, RUSL) - now getting rid of the longs and making some return of the shorts. I think investors are remembering last year's August sell-off. On the other hand, the old saw - Don't fight the Fed has seemingly be rewritten as "Don't fight the Fed, the ECB or central bank of China" - I await the next Fed report -
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Post by blygh on Aug 9, 2012 21:31:57 GMT -5
Well I am bailing out Fed treasuries - I am not sure what is happening - $16 billion in 30 year bonds went off @2.85% interest with a 2.41:1 bid to cover ratio. There seems to be some sector rotation - biotech and drugs are topping out and starting to decline- some is true with real estate - - natural resources seemed to have bottomed out and starting to rise - coal and steel are doing well. Homebuilders are strong (ITB and XHB) continue upwards. I am shorting Gaming stocks
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Post by blygh on Aug 16, 2012 21:28:31 GMT -5
Dumping Long Term corporates (ABNDX, CVLT) - buying a basket of RYL, PHM, TOL, DHI, KBH, LEN _ These have been on a steady rise for a year. It makes me think the building glut is over - With Bond prices falling, maybe the powers that be are betting on inflation. That is a tough call with 10yr treasuries at 1.6%.
Blygh
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Post by blygh on Oct 16, 2012 18:29:19 GMT -5
I have been picking up mature pharmaceutical companies - LLY, JNJ, AMGN, NVO, SNY , IHE (ETF) - the meningitis outbreak will subject smaller pharmacies to more rigid over sight. I think it indicates a confidence that Obamacare is not imperiled - at least in the market view - I also hold ALXN, ARNA, VICL -- thinking about GILD, RDSA, GSK
Blygh
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Post by blygh on Oct 27, 2012 18:35:57 GMT -5
A lot of pharma stocks hit stops this week - I have lost confidence in pharmaceuticals - moving to more shorts DTO DUG EUM EPV REW SRS - My question is should I stay long with housing - it has had a one year run - Tight stops? - loose stops?
Blygh
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Post by bankedout on Oct 27, 2012 22:30:50 GMT -5
My guess would be if it breaks below the September/October lows you should get out for sure. However if you feel uncomfortable you can always sell down to your comfort level at any moment.  |
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Post by blygh on Oct 31, 2012 23:19:30 GMT -5
Sounds reasonable banked out - will do - in their place I am getting into cable and dish TV stocks  |
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Post by blygh on Nov 21, 2012 17:41:29 GMT -5
Today I dumped most short funds (DTO REW EUM DUG EPV SRS) - putting more retirement funds into Munibond funds . On the NYSE today there were 83 new highs - 23 of them are munibond funds.
Blygh
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Post by blygh on Nov 23, 2012 16:51:54 GMT -5
around 11:00 there were 50 new NYSE highs - 14 were Municipal Bond funds - I picked up some MUH - I have noticed some industrial/agricultural/mining equipment are showing signs of upside life DE, CAT, CNH, KUB - I have CNH and bought KUB.
Blygh
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Post by blygh on Dec 10, 2012 14:02:37 GMT -5
A oft quoted maxim was "The trend is your friend." I think it should be displaced by "If you can see the trend, its at an end."
Blygh
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Post by sd on Dec 10, 2012 20:24:25 GMT -5
There is indeed some Truth in your modified quote-While we seek trending markets, statistically, they are not the "normal state" . We get chewed up in the transition process.
I'm not sure of the actual data, but I think the ratio is the markets can be trending (up or down) 1/3 of the time- the remaining period is consolidation and chop-
Where we perceive a move to go in our favor- our bias, and then it takes it away-
It is in these moments of transition, that a perfectly good stop gets hit and then whipsaws higher, only to go lower....and then we are somewhat in a sloppy sideways chop......
Perhaps the best trend is defined by the longest term chart-
Unfortunately, it also comes with the widest % loss. Could that be the best market approach?
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Post by blygh on Dec 17, 2012 20:50:50 GMT -5
I would be interested to know where folks go prospecting for undervalued stocks - the WSJ lists Most Active - Biggest Gainers - Biggest Losers - New Highs - New Lows - Upgrades - Downgrades - Coverage initiated - Price target changes?  ?? In my experience New Highs seems to yield the best results but tight stops are essential - I also try to avoid buying a New High within 3 days unless volume is up substantially. MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) seems to be a widely enough followed to be an indicator to be useful. I also keep an eye on short interest - I shy away from stocks with more than 3% short interest. PEG ratio does not seem to be a very good indicator of an impending rise - while a low price to sales seems to work for me <= 1.25. Blygh |
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Post by bankedout on Dec 17, 2012 23:41:58 GMT -5
Undervalued stocks, meaning Benjamin Graham/Warren Buffett criteria?
I would say AAII Computerized Investing is your best bet. Even though it is archaic, I'm not aware of another service with that level of data for a reasonable price.
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