Week 50 18 thru 22 Dec 2017

[blygh]

Friday 22 Dec 2017                         
Week 50                                                

Across the finish line 

                                                                                  @fc = "At Friday close DFLT = default pick

Rider	Horse	Open	Latest	G/L	%	Stop		Rank
1 Tiarra	ETSYDFLT	20.60	21.69	+1.09	+5.29%			1
2   Ira	OSTK	69.00	65.75	-3.25	-4.71%			6
3Spiderman	GBTC	2699@fc	1990	-709	-26.27%			7
4    SD	CBOE	126.58	124.47	-2.11	-1.67%	122		4
5  RealDeal	MDT	83.61	81.54	-2.07	-2.47%			5
6   Blygh	CNTY	9.71	9.65	-0.06	-0.62%			3
7   Market	SPY	268.10	267.49	-0.61	-0.23%			2
8	QQQ	158.29	157.37	-0.92	-0.58%

 Tiarra does it again for the win  

[blygh]

YTD for 2017 as of 12/22/2017 Week 50

Rider	Wins	Place	Show	YTD	Default
Tiarra	6-7	5	8	+33.229%	ETSY
Ira	9	12	7	+11.437%	VIXY short
Spiderman	10	9	6	-42.753%	EXAS
SD	8	4	9	+11.530%	XBI
Real Deal	5	10	4	-12.066%	CREESINCE 3/28
Blygh	11	4	2->3	-1.844%	ISRG
Market		5>6	13	+17.361%

 Tiarra has left the field in the dust -Is there a lesson here? 

[blygh]

Last week when I was discussing pics, I wrote, "Spiderman is going for broke with GBTC - if I were gutsier I would take the other side of that trade."  Well as they say - no guts no glory - I made good money in the 2003 downturn when my sister called me and wanted me to invest some money for her.  Recalling the old saw "When the public gets in, the smart money gets out" I shorted the market much to my (and her) benefit.  I think the same could be said for bit coin. 
Congrats Tiarra - Next week HUN long 
Blygh  

[sd]

I agree Blygh that today's product- should be very shortable-Small float, extremely volatile- but that would take deep pockets- and a lot of Rolaids potentially!

I think it's entirely possible that crypto currencies could be around for the longer term- but the survivors will be an evolution of these products on display today-and likely much less volatile and competitively priced -
From an investment point of view, and being diversified- a very small future risk allocation to that area- 1-2 % through an ETF exchange might be worth considering- But I'd also buy some Rare metal etf- and perhaps some Gold---- But the combined would not exceed 5% - and i'd like to find a reasonably priced ETF that would give a mix of that exposure- including a small portion to crypto currencies. Thinking ahead to the Investment Race- Ideally, one has exposure to things that are not all highly correlated for the longer term-

yes RD, Glad to have taken profits- on the Riot bitcoin- very small trade- small overall Risk- but a nice reward % wise- about 100% in a week- but that's almost like playing with penny stocks- or Roulette-Of which I do neither- It's a win-lose type of trade and a total gamble- a 50-50 chance to succeed or fail - and while i would have loved to have made a big score- it would have been a big Risk - and - as you might have guided your friend- trading is about long term survival- and consistency....and Limiting Risk is Step #1

Congrats to Tiarra!
i sent her an e-mail- PM - a Few weeks ago, but haven't received a response- as of yet- I Hope to hear back from her,,,,Life happens -to All of us-
On a personal Note-Thanks to all of you- And Blygh-in particular for keeping the Horse Race updated -daily !.
Bull market- not underestimated- the simple engagement with the Weekly Horse Race -It's been a great year!
Merry Christmas All! Keep it Safe- and perhaps we get more engaged in 2018=Ride the Bull!

[ira85]

OSTK Long next week

Call me crazy. This is junk and I know it. Last week I picked it and passed on my next 2 choices, ANAB and RXDX. Hindsight, oh my. I was trying to hit a home run. Did I pick the wrong horse, or the wrong week? RXDX is gone. Too late to cry on that one. This will be my last chance this year. So I'll roll the dice one more time. Back to more sensible choices next week.

Thanks Blygh for keeping this going! Merry Christmas!! -ira

[realdeal]

RXDX made my list on 11/3, but wasn't doing much of any real moving until well you know the rest of the story.

I'll go with JUNO (long)


Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all!

[Spiderman]

Congrats Tiarra,
I'll stay on GBTC long.
I need to go for broke.
Merry Christmas everyone.
Spiderman

[sd]

Article on Bitcoin in SA-
seekingalpha.com/article/4133726-bitcoin-lessons-crypto?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-widget


Until I read this Article, I didn't realize that GBTC is an OTC-Look at that Price! even though it shows it on the Chart heading-
Don't mean to be the Christmas Scrooge- as I had a very big gain with this product-and when I entered it, failed to notice the small print on the chart -OTC listing.
But it would also negate Spiderman's big loss for the past week-
Sorry Blygh-! Screws up the record keeping you've done! Since the rules are no OTC- Perhaps the outcome should simply be a scratch-0- for that week for Each of us that used this OTC. OR- since it's a lot of rework on the record keeping.....your choice- as to how best to handle this "oversight."
Going forward, there will be products available that are not OTC to go Long or Short -Bitcoin -/ crypto currencies.
RD sent me this link - and I'm certain there will be many more as 2018 progresses.

www.cnbc.com/2017/12/22/cboe-files-to-list-6-bitcoin-etfs.html


Since Markets are Closed Monday- I would think that trades would be allowed up to the deadline Monday pm- and perhaps some time for comments from members-Monday.
Merry Christmas All!

[blygh]

I DON'T know what to do about the OTC /GBTC issue at this point. Th rationale for excluding OTC stocks has been that they are thinly traded and hence subject to wide swings that really do not reflect value or market opinion.  GBTC has been heavily traded.  Lets see how it trades this week and I will make two calculation - one, with GBTC allowed and one with it scratched - I don't think that the over all results will be affected. 2018 will see a new contest - I promise to check on where entries trade.  I am rethinking trading ADRs  - if the underlying company is a large cap - Like DIAMLER-Benz -DDAIF I think it should be allowed (maybe minimum 3 billion market cap?) .  Thoughts?


Bligh   

[sd]

I'm good with whatever you and the members select- Since Cryto currency seems to be the momentum trade- and what the market is talking about daily- having an instrument that has a direct correlation to that area of the market - would seem to be reasonable- it meets the $8 price minimum! Good with ADR's as well-.
As 2018 gets here and more legit -direct offerings are born to follow Crypto currency- it will be a momentum focus-for 2018.
Lost track of my Days -

[blygh]

YTD for 2017 as of 12/22/2017 Week 50

Rider	Wins	Place	Show	YTD	Default
Tiarra	6-7	5	8	+33.229%	ETSY
Ira	9	12	7	+11.437%	VIXY short
Spiderman	10	9	6	-22.356%	EXAS
SD	8	4	9	+11.530%	XBI
Real Deal	6	10	4	-12.066%	CREESINCE 3/28
Blygh	11	4->5	3	-1.844%	ISRG
Market		6	13	+17.361%

 Spiderman's YTD  corrected to disallow loss due to OTC non qualifying stock Real Deals YTD is corrected to diasllow his 31.58% gain from week 48

Tiarra has left the field in the dust -Is there a lesson here? 

[realdeal]

Oh come on! Why are you selectively erasing this now, you want to get technical SD won months back with GBTC. What about that? I thought no ETF's either, I recall earlier in the year I wanted to default my pick to a ETF, I was told no, you change the rules?


LOL Tiarra LEFT period, when is the last time she posted anything, good for her.