Week of May 1 thru 5 Mat 2017

[sd]

The Impressive gains of some of the YTD default pics would initially make one think that Buy and Hold is indeed perhaps the best way to go- But with outsized gains comes outsized Risk.
With individual stocks also comes opportunity- for such impressive gains- and also potentially outsized losses. EXAS weekly chart is a good example of why one needs to have a plan in place to not simply be a passive investor- but needs to have some rules for entry and exits when the trend is no longer in your favor--

[blygh]

Congrats to Spiderman  with nods to Ira and Real Deal. Next week I will ride NCLH long (again) -  stop at 52,  limit at 62.

Blygh

[ira85]

I'll ride AAOI long again.

Thursday evening I was in 7th place and deep in the red. Then AAOI reported blowout earnings. Revenues up 91% year over year. Earnings were $1.10 a share. First quarter last year was a 4 cent loss. What a relief! I don't have any real money in AAOI. Sure glad to see SD didn't get stopped out and was in it Friday. -ira

[Spiderman]

HI Blygh,
My YTD at the beginning of the week was -28.888% and I had a gain of 18.14% this week, how can my YTD be -16%?
Just curious.
Thanks,
Spiderman

If you were down 28.888% then your stake was (1-0.28888) =.71112 which when multiplied by 1.1814 yields 0.84012 which is .16  -  down from break even (=1). Hence you are down 16% YTD.  Every week I take a rider's previous week's YTD accumulated stake and multiply it by the week's gain/loss %.  Example
Lets say you made 10% on week 1 - your stake is now 1.1 (hundred, thousand, - the size of the wager is irrelevant to the gain/loss ratio.  If in the second week, you are down 3% I take the 1.1 x (1-.03) =1.067 or a 6.7% YTD.  If the next week you are down 7% the 1.067 x  (1-.07) = .9923.  I express this as loss of 0.769% =(1-.9923).  I think that this reflects real weekly investment measurement.  We could, I suppose, just average weekly gains/losses but that presumes investing the same amount each week instead of betting the accumulated stake.  Make sense??  Comments ??
Blygh



 

[realdeal]

Thanks and Congrats to Spiderman! WOW!


I was thinking DUK long but I'll go with RL (long) for this week. Diamond Bottom on the daily and weekly

-rd

[tiarra]

Congrats, gentlemen for your impressive gains this week! Especially Spiderman.

M short stop at 30.25. Hopefully I am not catching the bottom like I did with Kohls last week!