Week of 19 Sept thru 24 2016

[blygh]

And they are off and running 

Rider	Horse	Open	Latest	Gain/Loss	Percent	Stop	Limit	Rank
Tiarra	VLO	56.87	57.14	+0.27	+0.48%	54		3
Ira	LMT	239.30	240.88	+1.58	+0.66%			2
SD	CLVS	32.78	30.91	-1.87	-5.7%			6
Spiderman	AQXP	13.40	12.68	-0.72	-5.37%			5
Blygh	CERN short	62.29	61.48	-0.81	+1.3%	65	56	1
Market	SPY	213.37	213.38	+0.01	0%			4

Blygh is first out of the gate with Ira and Tiarra in hot pursuit

 

[sd]

tIARRA'S hORSE CHART INCLUDES tODAY-
oTHER CHARTS ARE ONLY UP TO THE PRIOR fRIDAY CLOSE.





AND A LOOK AT lmt dAILY- 1ST REVERSAL MOVE HIGHER THIS mONDAY

[blygh]

Major pile up in the far turn leaders and lagers reversing positions

Rider	Horse	Open	Latest	Gain/Loss	Percent	Stop	Limit	Rank
Tiarra	VLO	56.87	55.45	-1.42	-2.5%	54		6
Ira	LMT	239.30	240.48	+1.18	+0.49%			2
SD	CLVS	32.78	34.83	+2.05	+6.25%			1
Spiderman	AQXP	13.40	13.43	+.03	+0.2%			4
Blygh	CERN short	62.29	62.11	-0.18	+0.29%	65	56	3
Market	SPY	213.37	213.42	+0.05	0%			5

SD charges to a long lead 

 

[sd]

Watch Tiarra bounce tomorrow! Oil inventories came in 7% under what was expected! Go figure! A 3% surplus was projected and now they announce a substantial shortfall in Inventory!

Somebody is making Ca Ching on this market manipulation-! And then we have the Fed = What will that bring to the markets?

Pinch me and tell me it hasn't always been like this!

[blygh]

Into the back stretch

Rider	Horse	Open	Latest	Gain/Loss	Percent	Stop	Limit	Rank
Tiarra	VLO	56.87	55.68	-1.19	-2.09%	54		6
Ira	LMT	239.30	243.82	+4.52	+1.89%			2
SD	CLVS	32.78	35.68	+2.90	+8.85%			1
Spiderman	AQXP	13.40	13.63	+.23	+1.72%			3
Blygh	CERN short	62.29	62.37	+.08	-0.13%	65	56	5
Market	SPY	213.37	215.82	+1.75	+0.8%			4

SD extends his lead - Ira and Spiderman giving chase

 

[blygh]

SD, of course the market is manipulated -One analyst suggested that as much 60% of professional profits come from short term manipulation.  My strategy for beating it, is to go to the strong sectors or weak sectors and go long or short on highly correlated stocks within that sector which are lagging the others 

[sd]

Well, if manipulation is 60% and HFT takes the remainder, tough for the average Joe or Josephine.

[blygh]

In an MBA class in computer simulation I wrote a program testing short, medium and long term trading strategies.  Parameters included long term market growth, volatility, average recessionary returns, normal returns, boom returns.  After 100,000 runs over 30 simulated years  varying the parameters of each strategy, nothing beat "by and hold".  Go figure

[sd]

Now that is impressive testing! I would like to hear more- I would assume that such testing was based on some larger market indexes, and not on a small group of individual stocks-

I think the fallacy for individual investors having heard that "Buy and Hold" is the best approach long term, is that they may not realize it is not stock specific- Individual stock ownership brings huge proportionate Risk , compared to having those same assets invested in an Index ETF. Buy and Hold is also promoted by Investment advisers- and generally- if in a diversified Fund allocation , that is good advice- but not so much for individual stock selection.

Even Cramer finally suggests that an Investor should start with a sector wide ETF like Spy first, and then branch off into individual stock ownership.
His promotion of owning at least 5 diversified stocks in different industry groups is an attempt to reduce the individual sector and stock risk- and hoping one or more will outperform.
Very few professional money managers outperform the benchmark Index-

A few years ago I became interested in portfolio construction- read some David Swenson, Mebane Faber- and essentially the take-away there was not a Buy and Hold- but Buy a widely diversified basket of different assets, and rebalance them periodically . The act of rebalancing periodically and reinvesting the proceeds to keep the balance ratio in proportion is how the professionals seek to improve results by active management and not sit on a position passively for the long term.

Granted, that type of active management requires a certain account size to not be adversely infected by transaction/commissions, as well as a psychological mindset to implement the strategy.

One other issue with "Buy and hold evidenced in the decade of 2000-2009 were the large drawdowns . Even a 60-40 stock-bond allocation in the US markets got hammered!
A strategy based on exiting on a weekly chart declining -select your ema crossover and test it- Try the 10 crossing the 30 - or the 20 crossing the 50- would have reduced the loss!
A more wordly and diversified allocation- likely did not take the full -45% portfolio decline that many did. We are overdue for another substantial correction-day of reckoning- but i have been believing that for years../..

As a final comment- When we all realize that today's markets are already well extended and at stretched PE ratios, Why do we assume that Buy and hold at this level of market excess makes sense? Fundamental investing suggests that markets eventually correct and reset valuations- Why should this present extended market be granted any exclusions? What has happened to value investing? Why not be accumulating some cash by being an active seller of positions that are "stretched" too high?
As individuals, we tend to think we have selected and invested in the next best thing- since sliced bread- Eventually the market tells us this is not necessarily so. We are just late to the carnival, and the enthusiasm of the riders is keeping the rides open - although it has gotten late.
When we Buy and believe we are 'right' and so we will Hold- we are attaching some psychological barnacles to our decision- It is as often our "Need" to be correct that clouds our judgement of what the price action is telling us- the market doesn't see it the same way- or for the same value- but we may more desire to be correct than to submit to the larger force of the market.

This would be a perfect time to be rebalancing in a portfolio to those areas that have been out of favor and are intrinsically cheap.

In my opinion- "BUY AND HOLD" is a very dangerous mantra concerning individuals purchasing specific stocks- A recipe for failure or under performance-for many- as 1 wrong stock affects 20% OF A 5 STOCK PORTFOLIO. Not so much for investing in widely diversified market Funds.

[blygh]

                                                   

                                                Out of the clubhouse turn

Rider	Horse	Open	Latest	Gain/Loss	Percent	Stop	Limit	Rank
Tiarra	VLO	56.87	55.60	-1.27	-2.23%	54		6
Ira	LMT	239.30	246.52	+7.22	+3.02%			3
SD	CLVS	32.78	38.36	+5.58	+17.02%			1
Spiderman	AQXP	13.40	15.00	+1.60	+11.94%			2
Blygh	CERN short	62.29	62.98	+.69	-1.11%	65	56	5
Market	SPY	213.37	217.18	+3.81	+1.8%			4

SD enters the home stretch with a remarkable gain. Spiderman chasing - the rest of the field far behind

 

[sd]

Here go the photos!

Spiderman:AQXP

Blygh Cern short

SD-CLVS

IRA -LMT

Tiarra- VLO

[blygh]

                                                   

                                                At the finish

Rider	Horse	Open	Latest	Gain/Loss	Percent	Stop	Limit	Rank
Tiarra	VLO	56.87	55.67	-1.20	-2.11%	54		6
Ira	LMT	239.30	245.84	+6.54	+2.73%			3
SD	CLVS	32.78	37.14	+4.36	+13.30%			1
Spiderman	AQXP	13.40	14.77	+1.37	+10.02%			2
Blygh	CERN short	62.29	62.75	+.46	-0.74%	65	56	5
Market	SPY	213.37	215.99	+2.62	+1.23%			4

SD takes it by 3 lengths - Spiderman a strong second

 

[blygh]

                                                   
                                                At the finish

Rider	Horse	Open	Latest	Gain/Loss	Percent	Stop	Limit	Rank
Tiarra	VLO	56.87	55.67	-1.20	-2.11%	54		6
Ira	LMT	239.30	245.84	+6.54	+2.73%			3
SD	CLVS	32.78	37.14	+4.36	+13.30%			1
Spiderman	AQXP	13.40	14.77	+1.37	+10.02%			2
Blygh	CERN short	62.29	62.75	+.46	-0.74%	65	56	5
Market	SPY	213.37	215.99	+2.62	+1.23%			4

SD takes it by 3 lengths - Spiderman a strong second

 

[blygh]

Rider	Total return from 7/16	Total wins '16
Tiarra	-27.26%	5
Ira	+15.33%	8
SD	-4.67%	4
Spiderman	+40.13%	7

Blygh                   +13.57%                   5

With a 10%+ gain on top of a 27% gain since July  (110% X 127%), Spiderman is up 40+% since 7/16  - Impressive

[sd]

tHANK yOU, nICE TO HAVE A WIN- I wonder if biotech and pharma don't weaken this week due to the upcoming presidential debate and all the publicity around Epi-Pen.
I'll stay CLVS long next week=