week of 18 July thru 23 July 2016

[blygh]

Entrants for the w/e 23 July 2016

Rider	Horse	Open	Latest	Rank	Stop	Limit
sd	GLL				65	76
Ira	JNUG short				313	285
Tiarra	BIIB				250
Joe
Spiderman
Bankedout
Blygh	Axon				12.70	15.50
Market	SPY

I replaced QQQ with SPY (S&P 500 ETF) as a better index - comments 

[blygh]

I am still getting the hang of this formatting - We will see how the Stop ,Limit parameter works . As far as sd's suggestion of using a $100,000 paper bank .- let me put that off for a moment. One other suggestion is to prohibit leveraged ETFs since this is the equivalnet of buying an option. 70% of options are never exercised. Speaking for myself , I am interested in what each player 'sees' in individual stocks Comments
Blygh

[sd]

Blygh, since you are generously offering your time to continue the RACE- I -for one- would be willing to forego using levereged ETF's, and instead use the underlying Base ETF as the race selection. I think it is likely that the other Racers would not mind racing on a more level field.
This would tend to favor Racers seeking better choices rather than leverage.

I think allowing stops - and limits to be used = will be useful- reflecting the real environment. Racers don't have to use either- Their choice.

As for tracking the starting "Balance" concept=
That is simply an option each trader could track based on the cumulative gain or loss %- should they choose to do so.

I do think it would be useful to acknowledge the % :leader each quarter-and the net % gain they accumulated.

Thanks again for undertaking this role!

[blygh]

OK - thanks SD - I will try to contact Spiderman, Tiarra and Joe to see if I can get them back in the game . We could keep a running total of people's totals gains over a year by starting with 1. If a rider is up 5% at the end of week one the score goes to 1.05. If the next week he is down 2% this sore is 1.029 (1.05-(1.05X.02)). I would also like players to give the reasons for their pick - just something to think about. I will see what I can do about rounding up players
Blygh

[blygh]

Entrants for the w/e 23 July 2016

Rider	Horse	Open	Latest	Gain/loss%	Stp/lmt	Rank
sd	GLL	69.27	69.35	0.1%	65/76	3
Ira	JNUG short	283.83	284.75	-0.3%	313/285	5
Tiarra	BIIB	260.04	261.50	0.6%	250	1
Joe
Spiderman
Bankedout
Blygh	Axon	13.11	13.04	-0.15%	12.70/15.5	4
Market	SPY	215.97	216.41	0.2%		2

I replaced QQQ with SPY (S&P 500 ETF) as a better index - comments 

[blygh]

Still working out the kinks Please bring any errors to my attention
Blygh

[sd]

SPY makes sense to me to represent the greater Market.
Feel free to modify the 2x leveraged GLL to just short GLD-
My stop-loss on the short GLD will be $130.50.
I think encouraging Racers to contribute their thoughts as to the "Why" we are making a particular selection is sensible- gives feedback- and doesn't have to be a long explanation.

It would also encourage member dialogue- Always a good thing if it's constructive, and members here have always been constructive.
I hope the other members will continue to join in

My rationale for this trade, is that Gold has been in a near term uptrend- and I believe it is overextended -particularly if Gold's rise has been on a fear basis-
it would appear that the US market is indeed the strong market-globally, and the masses will seek to find gains whereever they can in a negative interest environment.
The US market will now be handed an extension of the Fed not raising rates following Brexit, And the money manipu;lation continues. While there will eventually be a day of reckoning, globally, Monetary rate manipulation is the global answer to postponing .
I think this is a very short term contrarian trade- If the US market earnings appear to be decent- and the rally in equities continues, Gold will decline further- in the near term.

[blygh]

Rider	Horse	Open	Latest	Gain/Loss	%	Stop/	Limit	Rank
SD	GLL	69.27	70.97	1.70	+2.5%	65	76	2
Ira	JNUG (short)	283.88	205.86	78.02	+28%	313		1
Tiarra	BIIB	260.04	262.41	2.37	+1%	250		tie 3
Blygh	Axon	13.11	13.25	0.14	+1%	12.50	15.70	tie 3
Market	SPY	215.97	217.09	1.12	0.5%			5

I miss read ira's pick post - I thought he had a 285 limit - no limit was specified only a stop loss at 313
After Day 3
Ira leads big time

[tiarra]

So are we not entering ETF's anymore? Competing against them has been an obstacle as they have such big moves. Although, it did challenge me to find stocks that move big, which is what led me to my current earnings trading method. Earnings for BIIB came out today and it did well. BTW, for the earnings trading, I always pick a Thursday stock. I have noticed it is best to actually get in at the close on Friday as there is usually a gap on the Monday of the earnings announcement.

[blygh]

Tiarra, we have not AGREED ON any rule changes yet. I was thinking about the following 1. No leveraged ETFs - a leverage ETF is the equivalent of a non-leveraged ETF and an option. Option trading is the shortest route to bankruptcy for any reason other than insuring a portfolio. My point is that trading options (or their equivalent ) is a different ball game from trading stocks
2) Instead of recording winning weeks, we would look at total year on year or trailing twelve month return
3) The use of stops and limits but if a stock rises or falls a lot, the investor does not always get his/her stop price - (I had Netflix with a stop at 94 but the price after the earnings report fell to 85 - no body wanted it at 94. Anyway I am just asking for opinions at this stage
Blygh

[blygh]

Rider	Horse	Open	Stop	Limit	Last	Gain/Loss	%     Rank
Tiarra	BIIB	260.04	250	-----	282.45	22.43	8.6%    2
Ira	JNUG short	283.88	313	-------	236.38	47.5	18.7%     1
SD	GLL	69.27	65	76	68.75	-0.52	- 0.7%    5
Blygh	Axon	13.11	12.70	15.50	13.25	0.14	1.1%     3
Market	SPY	215.97	---------	--------	216.26	1.29	0.6%     4

After 4 days

Ira continues to lead while Tiarra moves up impressively

[sd]

"So are we not entering ETF's anymore? Competing against them has been an obstacle as they have such big moves. Although, it did challenge me to find stocks that move big, which is what led me to my current earnings trading method. Earnings for BIIB came out today and it did well. BTW, for the earnings trading, I always pick a Thursday stock. I have noticed it is best to actually get in at the close on Friday as there is usually a gap on the Monday of the earnings announcement."

Hi Tiarra,

We are still using ETF's in the RACE -at least this week.and we have 2 leveraged entries- Mine and IRA.
My GLL is a short gold ETF with 2x- 200% leverage.Also an active trade position I own. I had offered to simply short GLD- the 1x standard ETF.
Ira's pick -JNUG short is a 3x leverage- and was up +28% as of Wed's results- If Ira's pick was to short the standard Junior Gold Miners ETF GDXJ, His results would be reduced to about a 9% gain- Still a nice gain and good timing in the selection.


Blygh's earlier suggestion is that we consider not allowing using leveraged ETF's- This would level the playing field because stock movements are not leveraged.
I, for one, am fine with that. I would think unlevered ETF's would certainly still be allowed- Since unlevered ETF's are simply a basket of stocks within a broader group,
There will be stocks that have higher gains, stocks that have lower gains, (or losses if one is short) and the sum movement of the ETF is simply the average of that group.
Blygh also mentioned being interested in the Racer sharing Why they favor their pick- i think this works for both individual stocks or sector picks using ETF's

IRA's pick - shorting the Junior miners-GDXJ as a group- would still be #1- as of Yesterday.
His choice for the Race was excellent- because he realized that Gold was extended, but he also knew that the Junior Miners - individually -and as a group- were more extended.

I would opt that Racers could select Stocks or un levered ETF's- That would put them both on a more or less equal basis-
A good stock picker could find the better stock that leads a sector- A Racer that selects an un levered ETF is betting on an Index average
This would put the playing field leveled- and -the individual stock picker could select an individual stock from the ETF index and find that it is one of the stocks that makes that Index a market leader.

My vote would be both stocks and unlevered ETF's for future races. With little spare time for the markets or trading, - I think larger themes are reflected in the sector rotations that occur- and ETF's are a good way to perhaps capture that rotation. And with less Risk than an individual stock selection carries!


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Would you expand your present method regarding trading earnings? "
BTW, for the earnings trading, I always pick a Thursday stock. I have noticed it is best to actually get in at the close on Friday as there is usually a gap on the Monday of the earnings announcement"
Since we are in Earnings- a report on Thursday- News is known- What do you look for in terms of the earnings to consider taking a position on a Friday close?
Would that be focusing on Earnings beat and going long- Or on an earnings miss and going short? How long do you hold a trade for? Just askin.....
With the market breaking out and rallying the past week+- long trades have benefitted. I have held a few stock positions- and today's momentum market pullback requires that i will consider raising stops

THANKS!
SD

[blygh]

Rider	Horse	Open	Stop	Limit	Last	Gain/Loss	%     Rank
Tiarra	BIIB	260.04	250	-----	287.78	27.74	10.7%    2
Ira	JNUG short	283.88	313	-------	228.92	47.5	19.4%     1
SD	GLL	69.27	65	76	69.80	0.53	0.7%    5
Blygh	Axon	13.11	12.70	15.50	14.15	1.04	8%     3
Market	SPY	215.97	---------	--------	217.24	1.29	0.6%     4

And Ira takes the race going away despite a hard charge by Tiarra

[blygh]

Proposed rules 1) No leveraged securities 2) Stops and Limits are accepted - riders get the first trade price as the limit or stop is crossed 3) The honor role will keep track of accumulated gains and losses . 4) Picks for the following week can be made if they are posted prior to the Eastern time closing.Otherwise the deadline is 9:00 PM Eastern time = Please update your default picks

Blygh

[sd]

Congratulations IRA for a nice gain-
And Equally nice 2nd place Tiarra or a very sizeable breakout with BIIB!
And a nice 8% Blygh!
My GLL position sold today $69.55- nada....

The market seems quite solid, perhaps too complacent as the US market looks to be in the right spot.
As a contrarian trade- Volatility is nearing the historical low end with $VIX

The unleveraged ETn that follows the $VIX I will use is VXZ-

I think the proposed rules are fair- Eliminating leveraged positions will make for a more even playing field-

Good Luck!SD