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Post by blygh on Dec 19, 2013 11:00:29 GMT -5
Looking at gold continuing to fall, I thought back to 2 years ago when some friends asked me where they can buy gold. This should have clued me in. When the naive investor gets in, the smart investor gets out. I remember reading that in 1929 Bernard Baruch walked into his office and said, "A shoeshine boy just gave me a stock tip. When shoeshine boys start giving advice, it is time to get out." In 2000 my sister sent me money to invest for her. I wanted to sell her out at a 75% gain. She refused - but then sold at the bottom. The Naive Investor indicator may be a very good one. I am looking at odd lot trading. I keep thinking of another - when small caps peak, the bull market is over . Anyone have ideas on indicators.
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Post by sd on Dec 19, 2013 20:43:43 GMT -5
A continuation of what you expressed- When sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish- or bearish- at extreme levels, and the market 's price action does not reflect that sentiment- the rubber band is being stretched-
One could track the % # of stocks making new highs- or new lows and get an accurate feel for what is actually occurring -
Or- one could get a macro snapshot of how the primary sectors are acting- If growth is in only 1 or 2 sectors, that would be a narrow rally at best-
All that said- The Fed and the taper policy; and the politicians- with the budget issues; play a large role in how the market reacts.
It seems Europe was all the news a year or two ago- and where did that market volatility go? In the pockets of those that believed that things would work out- Those of us that were ready to jump onto the bearish outcomes, were positioned against the tide-
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ira85
New Member
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Post by ira85 on Jul 29, 2018 20:29:37 GMT -5
I appreciate the comments by Blygh and SD, both of whom clearly know a lot more about the market than me. So the following is offered for consideration, not to be argumentative. -ira
In the Horse Race this week Blygh commented,,, Old saw - "when the small caps peak the bull market is over." I looked at a chart to see what the small caps look like. I used IJR as a small cap proxy. It tracks the S&P small cap 600 index.
It looks like IJR traded sideways from December 2016 through September 2017. Highs and lows in a band with no trend up or down. Then it broke out to the upside. It went up until February 2018, about 4 months of up trend. Then it has what looks like a triple top, but the lows keep rising. That pattern ends with a breakout to the upside in May of 2018. Then it ran into resistance at around $87 in June.
And that's where the small caps (IJR) are now, hitting resistance at about $87. But there has been no breakdown. I don't see lower highs or lower lows. The last two times the small caps have hit resistance and traded sideways it was resolved by a refreshed surge higher. So I'd say the old saw may be right, but we can't say the small caps have peaked yet. I think it's also old wisdom that it's a bull market until it's over. And it doesn't look like it's over yet. Seems to me. -ira
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Post by sd on Aug 4, 2018 20:02:33 GMT -5
I would hope that you are right IRA- Bull market here is perhaps tired, but ideally not over-
Note that IJR is in a sideways base- but has returned +12% YTD- while SPY is approx 6% - and we have some months to go before year's end-
Tech sector - thru QQQ is also outperforming- +13%
Interesting in viewing the year long charts- The SPY had that big % run up in Jan and then sold off- just recently retesting those Jan highs-
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