Bubbles????

[blygh]

I was reading Alan Blinder's book "And then the Music Stopped" about the 2007-08 crash. In retrospect, real estate was an obvious bubble - Paul Krugman warned as early as 2004 that it looked like a bubble. In recent years precious metals proved to be a bubble - Bubble = rapid rise inconsistent with long term trends followed by plateau - often without a rise in company earnings commensurate with the stock price .Investing when a something looks like a bubble can be highly profitable. People who shorted real estate in 2007 made a bundle (particularly if you bought CDS's). . DTO which shorted oil x2 was up 900% in 2008.
What are today's BUBBLES? At one point DUST - which shorts precious metals miners was up 747% from its Sept 2012 low of 22.28 to it June 2013 hight of 165.7. That bubble burst to the profit of the shorts and the benefit of early sellers. I am wondering where the next BUBBLE is. Biotech looks toppy - Biotech ETFs are up over 1 year - BBH + 60%, IBB +46%, FBT+42%, and Fidelity sector fund FBIOX +53%. I have not seen the plateau yet but I think I am ready to cash out on my holding and start looking at shorting. Anything else looking like BUBBLES?

[sd]

I hope you are mistaken - at least in the near term-I'm hoping the momentum continues for a time yet- I think as long as the market -S&P continues to manage
Other than cashing out and look to short- If your holding has not seen the price action breakdown/rollover yet- why not trail price with a stop just under the daily bar? and possibly a limit sell above the present price high, moved up with each up move-Momentum moves often have that peak thrust and top out-
Just a thought- Good luck with your trade- SD

[blygh]

Lots of bio techs down big today - ETFs- IBB BBH FBT BIB all down 2-4% - hope to see a new basis form soon
Blygh

[blygh]

Looks like the biotech bubble bursting today. Now I suspect the solar stocks are also a bubble
they have gone too far too fast - Sold about 20 stocks this AM (10/8)
Blygh

[bankedout]

Maybe the Solar stocks are being driven by dividend yield? The last time I looked I think TAN was yielding about 6% per year. Plus they were hammered so bad in the past, maybe short covering helped fuel this move.

The Biotechs are of concern, I agree. When the leaders of the stock market start to fail, trouble should spread far and wide.

Good luck!

[blygh]

blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2013/10/10/is-there-a-biotech-bubble/?mod=yahoobarrons

Analysts raising the question of biotech bubble

[blygh]

CNBC commentator 11/20 argued solar stocks are a bubble - I dumped SCTY and TAN the last couple of days - buying puts and calls on BIB - also shorting treasuries -TTT
Blygh

[blygh]

www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2013/12/02/is-wall-street-too-giddy/many-signs-that-stock-values-are-too-high

Blygh

[blygh]

Biotech and solar both look like bubbles - but they keep on going. I am taking profits and bolting
Blygh

[blygh]

I think the market is showing a double top. It has been a long run and trees do not grow to the sky.
Blygh

[blygh]

Question: Russia, long or short. RUSL vs RUSS RUSS is the Putin put. Or "buy when there is blood in the streets?" RUSL was up big Fri. I think that may be the better bet. Economics vs Poliics. Economics usually wins.
Blygh

[bankedout]

It seems like Russia could be short term oversold. However I don't really see any signs of the market trying to put in a bottom in this time frame.