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Post by bankedout on Sept 6, 2012 17:57:03 GMT -5
SPY closed above the October 2007 high today for the first time.  |
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Post by sd on Sept 14, 2012 15:10:43 GMT -5
$147.18 Friday 9-14 The Fed is pumping the mkt- QE 3 has arrived- Trade WITH the trend-
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Post by blygh on Sept 14, 2012 15:40:33 GMT -5
But keep your stops tight - the market looks a lot like 2007 - highs in July - sell off in Aug - Fed intervention - double top completed October - come November - Katy bar the door
Blygh
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Post by dg on Sept 14, 2012 16:29:25 GMT -5
yes, but this time QE is open ended. so it might be different.
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Post by sd on Sept 14, 2012 22:15:32 GMT -5
I would agree with Blygh- Trade with stops-keep enough room to stay outside a normal volatility swing, but be prepared to nip some profits- This is Fed contrived trading momentum- position yourself to take advantage of the moment-
There will eventually be a day of reckoning, or the day when the smart money has made it's year and takes it's profits, leaving us retail traders to hold the proverbial bag.
I would think that the Gold /Silver trade would be a good proxy for the market momentum- It would seem that while the market wants the stimulus of QE3, the Gold trade suggests that the market also knows that it is at best a temporary measure based on money printing by the Fed.
Should This not equate with a decline in the value of the dollar, and thus US exports will become more competitive, giving a false sense of growth with added inflation as the world mkts will charge more to sell to us?
Everybody loves a party, but there is that hangover when it is done in excess. Americans have been losing as their standard of living is declining- QE3 as a policy may be open ended, but that is like the Host claiming the bar is always open.
What is indeed different today, is that the global economy is much more integrated than ever before. The US used tobe perceived as having a pristine balance sheet compared to the rest of the world- Those days are long behind us, and we are joining the group that frequents the qwik cash- check cashing places that pop up- Present a piece of paper and you get dollars.
QE3 may be open ended, but eventually the world market will get tired of the dealer changing the rules to suit his position.
The only alternative, is to try to get the max gain while the music is playing, and be ready to take a seat when it stops. SD
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