week of 1 thru 5 december 2008

[dg]

Here is the lineup for this week's event:

horse	rider	entry	last	% change	rank
C short	bankedout	"7.80"	-	-	-
RY long	blyghme	33.08	-	-	-
SMN long	sd	76.90	-	-	-
DAL long	dg	8.60	-	-	-
NVEC long	spiderman	22.49	-	-	-
COMPQ	(mkt)	1496.08	-	-	-

Good Luck!

[dg]

So much for my theory that OPEC's failure to reduce output would be good for the airlines. (AND NO, VIRGINIA, THE STOCK MARKET ISN'T REAL). After 1 day:

horse	rider	entry	last	% change	rank
C short	bankedout	"7.80"	6.45	17.31	2
RY long	blyghme	33.08	31.51	-4.75	3
SMN long	sd	76.90	92.56	20.36	1
DAL long	dg	8.60	7.96	-7.44	6
NVEC long	spiderman	22.49	21.01	-6.58	5
COMPQ	(mkt)	1496.08	1398.07	-6.55	4

sd takes the early lead!

[bankedout]

According to Yahoo & Prophet.net my horse opened today at $7.90 I realize this is below the $8 threshold, but the penalty open of $6.94 seems like too stiff of a penalty to me. Can you please double check.

Thank you & good luck to all the racers.

[dg]

bankedout:

When I checked yahoo finance at 10:30 ish this morning, it had C opening at 7.45. My penalty calculation of P*P/8 = 6.94 was correct for that value. I see now that they have changed their open value to 7.90. The penalty value for that is 7.80. I have therefore made the correction in the above post (so nice that we can edit). I wonder why they had it wrong at 10:30?

[dg]

After 2 days:

horse	rider	entry	last	% change	rank
C short	bankedout	"7.80"	7.22	7.44	2
RY long	blyghme	33.08	30.47	-7.89	6
SMN long	sd	76.90	84.20	9.49	1
DAL long	dg	8.60	8.47	-1.51	3
NVEC long	spiderman	22.49	22.03	-2.05	4
COMPQ	(mkt)	1496.08	1449.80	-3.09	5

sd's lead is beginning to collapse! Others are beginning to jockey for position.

[dg]

After 3 days:

horse	rider	entry	last	% change	rank
C short	bankedout	"7.80"	7.82	-0.26	5
RY long	blyghme	33.08	30.77	-6.98	6
SMN long	sd	76.90	85.61	11.33	1
DAL long	dg	8.60	8.74	1.63	3
NVEC long	spiderman	22.49	23.26	3.42	2
COMPQ	(mkt)	1496.08	1492.38	-0.25	4

sd's lead is growing again; and spiderman has replaced bankedout in second place.

[dg]

After 4 days:

horse	rider	entry	last	% change	rank
C short	bankedout	"7.80"	7.40	5.13	2
RY long	blyghme	33.08	29.28	-11.49	6
SMN long	sd	76.90	90.00	17.04	1
DAL long	dg	8.60	8.88	3.26	3
NVEC long	spiderman	22.49	22.79	1.33	4
COMPQ	(mkt)	1496.08	1445.56	-3.38	5

sd's lead continues to grow; and bankedout has returned to second place.

[dg]

And the surprise come-from-behind winner is:

horse	rider	entry	last	% change	rank
C short	bankedout	"7.80"	7.71	1.15	4
RY long	blyghme	33.08	28.81	-12.91	6
SMN long	sd	76.90	84.90	10.40	2
DAL long	dg	8.60	10.39	20.81	1
NVEC long	spiderman	22.49	24.47	8.80	3
COMPQ	(mkt)	1496.08	1509.31	0.88	5

CONGRATS! (ahem) dg.

[blyghme]

Nice win dg - how did you figure out that oil would be $42/barrel . Coming in last served me right - going long in a Bear market - lower highs - lower lows - that is just not a percentage bet. Well where do we go from here - all depends (I think) on how much more hedge funds are going to unwind - There is certainly no financial/economic reason to explain the kind of volatility we see. Still, we are about due for a Santa Claus rally. In other words - it is a crap shoot - I'll take CHL Long (China is showing signs of stability) - BTW - I am heading off to the Mideast next week for 3 weeks and will only be able to race if I can find internet access. Wish me luck that I do not get hijacked entering the Red Sea

Blygh

[dg]

Stay safe blygh.

As to the oil, my bet on it was down due to failure of opec to set cutbacks at their last meeting. Needless to say, that boded well for the airlines; and I liked the DAL chart setup going into last monday. However, the arabs seem set to make cutbacks their objective for the dec 17 opec meeting; so now I would expect oil prices to start drifting upward again.

[dg]

My pick for next week's race is NL long.

dg

[Spiderman]

Nice come from behind win DG.

I'll ride EZPW long.

Spiderman

[bankedout]

Excellent win dg!

I will try HD long for next week.

[bankedout]

Dec 6, 2008 11:28:02 GMT -5 dg said:

However, the arabs seem set to make cutbacks their objective for the dec 17 opec meeting; so now I would expect oil prices to start drifting upward again.

Ticker symbol DXO might be worth keeping an eye on. It is an ETN that is designed to capture double the moves of crude oil prices. It's opposite ticker DTO allows someone to profit by buying when crude oil is falling in price (and is also a double exposure to the changing prices).

[sd]

Nice Win DG!
I'll take BGZ this week- raising the ante on leveraged etf's-
And good luck Blygh-
SD