SD'S -'GET 'ER DONE' IN 2012

[blygh]

Thanks for the insight sd. Your stop order was not activated because the the demand for the stock at that price was satisfied. Others were stopped out (lucky you) then prices rose before they got to you - this can work in either direction. Sometimes I get stopped out at a lower price than the stop because by the time Fidelity gets to my order, prices have fallen below my stop - The big high frequency traders can jump the order queue ahead of us. Thanks for the charts - maybe lower gasoline prices have people driving farther to low cost sellers - (WMT up 13% since April) - I think COST and DLTR just got ahead of themselves - the smart money gets out as the naive investor gets in.
Blygh

[bankedout]

The order must be a sell stop-limit instead of a plain sell stop?

[sd]

Hi Bankedout,-
No, my stops become market orders to sell at any price once hit.
Blygh- I appreciate your explanation- Yes Lucky me _ but as I mentioned to Bankedout- my stop is not a limit stop-
The 1 minute chart makes me think this was an aberration, and that the spike below the body of the bar was not acted on by the exchange..

I also agree that the move seems extended- and perhaps the smart money has headed out the door-
That's why I hope my progressively raising stops on the 60 minute charts will help me to nip any losses to a minor amount., while keeping me in the trade as long as price 'behaves'-
Checking out the new Highs list certainly does give a 'tell' on both the market tone , and the latest flavors in favor.

I had hoped to have been posting more charts-
Just got squeezed on time. I plan to catch up some this pm.
Good Luck, SD

[sd]

THE Financials have seen a bit of a rally with Europe now in lockstep to an immediate recovery. Sure- But as a short term trade, market momentum has swung in this direction.
I'm not sure what news has been acquired the past 48 hours that will affect the market open tomorrow- so I'm basing my decisions on what the chart suggested.
I think I had posted the original AIG trade? Well, it is a potential trade for tomorrow so I'm reposting it.
I had a good initial relatively early entry on a reversal of trend move- These moves often fail, as the momentum down is difficult to overcome. AIG had been selling off for a month, from a high of 35 to almost 27.00 A loss over 20%.
Since these moves do so often fail, and the downtrend then continues, I'm not treating these trades with as much latitude as i would for a trade within an uptrend.
OK, the original reversal climbed higher, I took some profits off and the price fell back for a few days, making a "higher low", as the direction of the trade has tenatively reversed to the upside. Price then tried to move back higher, failed to close to make a new higher high, and gave a minor pullback. From that minor pullback, price once again pushed higher- this time closing higher than the prior recent high.
At this point, I'm tenatively optimistic that financials and AIG will continue to move higher- The Chart suggests this is the case- news not known yet to the market for Thursday.
The Buy-Stop entry will be above the high , and the stop will use the most recent minor pullback low as the initial stop-loss-
If the buy-stop gets filled, and price closes weakly, it may give me an opportunity to raise the stop higher based on tomorrow's price action. If the buy-stop gets filled and price moves smartly higher, I can gradually adjust the stop back to Break Even. Often, the buy-stop simply won't get filled as price opens lower- It's use is an insurance premium that the trade at least has to move in the right direction.
While a reversal of Trend move may indeed have a lot of momentum and gain for the early entry- if it works- The key ingredient is getting out with a minimal loss should it not.
(I was filled on V this week on a Buy-stop order I forgot to cancel a week earlier)

[sd]

Presently I am fully long with the exception of $500.00 that is pending for a Buy if AIG moves higher.
Account value is $8946, and that is up from $8580 or less low I had in May.
Perhaps sharing this will be beneficial....to others that may hit a hard patch in their investing/trading. I'm not out of mine yet.....
My account had hit an all-time-low - it boils down to a lack of attention, a lack of a defined approach, trading with my bias, and allowing that bias to coerce me to give a wider stop on some trades. that ultimately failed.

Tomorrows market mover is the Jobs report-
This will impact stocks-

What will the market discern from the report?
Here's my present positions- in a relatively small trading account- For the purpose of comparisoms- use the % gain and loss within your own account- Don't think in $$$- Think in %- That keeps it relative to the market.
I'll try to update this monthly- should i survive this market. SD

[sd]

A disappointing jobs report suggests things remain flat, Euro concerns again .
Futures are down-
I expect a number of my positions will quickly stop out on market weakness. SD

[sd]

With the jobs report looking poor, I tightened the stops on a number of positions, some I let alone.
I intentionally raised the "profit stop" - the 1/2 position stop on trades where I have a decent profit- to lock in some gains should those stocks sell-off.
CLGX was hit at the open , my stop was right at the opening price, but slippage took it to execute some $.30 less .
The net gain on this trade was 4% on that portion.
T also stopped out at the open $35.08- for a small loss of less than 2%.
I also cancelled the proposed AIG trade, and took a long position on EPV- the Europe short- I took the trade 10 minutes into the open , as price moved up to $40.10 entry. The entry stop is below the prior low. EPV is a discretionary trade , just coming off a recent month long low as things in Europe seemed to stabilize.
There are some 'doubts' about Europe still, and so I took a 1/2 position, small stop-loss trade on a reversal of trend move higher.


THE EPV SPECULATIVE TRADE- POTENTIAL REVERSAL OF TREND-
Looking for a short term trade .

[sd]

The overall port lost just under 1% in net value.
I had 3 positions profit stops get filled, with the remaining portions of those positions still holding. XBI, CLGX,KOF
The entire T position stopped out as I had tightened the entire positions stop loss . T had previously been signaling weakness, and I chose to essentially reduce my potential loss from 2%+ to slightly under 1%.
On some of the other net profitable trades, with the stops above BE, I'm giving them room to develop into larger trades.

At the end of the day, 9 of the positions closed lower than yesterday, and 4 closed higher-


and T- stopped out for a loss

[sd]

RE turned out to have a very choppy price action, although in a gradual uptrend channel.
My entry should have been on the previous day, as price moved out of consolidation- I don't know that I had re on my screen - i saw the move above consolidation, and chose to enter above that. I was filled at my limit high as price gapped open higher and then pulled back.
that was the momentum high, and price fell back.
I took action to raise my stops higher following the first pullback, as price was not 'behaving' as I anticipated a break-out to a new high should.
Stopped out for a 2% loss on the trade.
Note that had I kept my stop at the original entry, I would have still been in the trade- however, the trend is very gradual, choppy, and my goal is to get into trends that are moving higher with some gusto.

[blygh]

From Investopedia.com
Investopedia explains 'Stop-Limit Order'
The primary benefit of a stop-limit order is that the trader has precise control over when the order should be filled. The downside, as with all limit orders, is that the trade is not guaranteed to be executed if the stock/commodity does not reach the stop price.

A stop order is an order that becomes executable once a set price has been reached and is then filled at the current market price. A limit order is one that is at a certain price or better. By combining the two orders, the investor has much greater precision in executing the trade. Because a stop order is filled at the market price after the stop price has been hit, it's possible that you could get a really bad fill in fast-moving markets.

For example, let's assume that ABC Inc. is trading at $40 and an investor wants to buy the stock once it begins to show some serious upward momentum. The investor has put in a stop-limit order to buy with the stop price at $45 and the limit price at $46. If the price of ABC Inc. moves above $45 stop price, the order is activated and turns into a limit order. As long as the order can be filled under $46 (the limit price), then the trade will be filled. If the stock gaps above $46, the order will not be filled.

Read more: www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stop-limitorder.asp#ixzz1zzhWmHk7

[sd]

Thanks Blygh,
I often use a stop order to BUY, and when I do, I always attach a limit order for the max I am willing to pay. Of course I have learned this the hard way- getting a buy-stop order filled at a ridiculously high price and then sell-off.
The entry on CLGX was such an order, with price opening above my stop and above my limit, coming back and hitting the limit later in the day.
Similar with the RE trade- Price opened much higher, and I was filled asw price pulled back.
I also always attach a stop-loss with each order.
Thanks, SD

[sd]

I had 4 of my positions hit today- 2 stops with losses, 2 with gains ; and 2 stops with losses yesterday
Market has been grinding down it seems.
7-10 EPV, PRGO small losses.
7-11 kof, str, small loss MWE, XBI small net gains- Wash.

What has helped in these trades has been a policy of taking a partial profit when price has moved higher, and then adjusting the remaining stop to get beyond and higher than the entry level.

[sd]

I have a positive position in WTR, and I thought- because of the sector strength- I could add AWR.
Did not look for a buy-stop entry - took a limit order thinking I would improve on the entry cost- .
I got a quick fill and stop strike withing 10 minutes of the open.
Oddly enough, WTR closed higher today......
That's trading- I' don't have time to chart the losers this week. SD

[sd]

It was a tough week with the markets down all week until Friday showed a rally.I took a $19 loss on AWR - bot @ the open 7-12 $ 41.38, and it hit my stop $ 40.54 @ 9:40
I'm down to 7 positions- and will look to increase the position size- All of these maintained their net profitable status and above my entry costs- I had sold partial profit stops on some./
Net portfolio value has lost this week, closing at $8865 -but held up respectably well considering the week.

I have 2 charts of COST- an earlier entry I had tried which failed on a ROT trade, that went lower, and then my most recent reentry- which was noteably taken while the stock was already moving higher. That second trade came very close to stopping out $.01 Unfortunately, I did not do a follow up reentry on the 1st trade when it moved higher--
I could have made a far better earlier entry a few days after I was stopped out- on the 1st trade, and actually caught the ROT .
The second entry was belated- I hadn't been targeting COST on a watchlist-
The charts both illustrate the use of stops- Potentially now I would have split the stops on the first failed trade to risk less, and tyhe more recent entry, the stops held but it was an extended entry and could have been made much earlier for a higher gain .

[sd]

clgx- Had taken 1/2 off with the profit stop- failed to reenter -no free cash then. stock has been moving strong while the market was weak.
the very high volume bar is a bit disconcerting- Could be an 'exhaustion'
bar, but the price did move higher and close at the high.