why buy and hold doesn't work now

[dg]

(if it ever really did)

finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/more-%22boom-and-bust%22-cycles-coming-the-real-reason-buy-and-hold-is-dead-453648.html?tickers=%5EDJI,%5EGSPC,SPY,DIA,UUP,TBT,QQQQ&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=

[ira85]

The article dg referenced seems to be saying we're in a secular bear market. The current bull will die, there will be another recession, and we'll go back to the lows of early 2009 at some point. We've probably all seen those historical charts that show how the market has had three previous secular bears in the last 100 years or so, i.e. 1881-1921, 1929-1949, and 1965-1980. A good overview is at www.prudentbear.com/dmdocuments/secularbear.pdf

All of the long term gains in the market come during secular bulls. Stocks by definition do badly on a buy and hold basis during secular bears. We could easily have 10-15 more years in this secular bear. So during that period, it would seem some an investor would have to have a trading strategy, that buy and hold would be a loser. Ten to 15 more years of this bear could be optimistic. If we've entered a period like the Japanese market, who knows how long it might last. Japan is in, what, about the 30th year of a secular bear market with no sign of a sustained new bull developing. Think about aging Japanese investors who bought and held in 1980.