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Post by sd on Mar 16, 2024 8:11:48 GMT -5
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Post by sd on Mar 18, 2024 8:30:53 GMT -5
3.18.2024
Bullish Open!
Another Bonus day- Last week had a return/interest payment on one of the CD's, today got a return on the 2nd one-
Big pop in the GOOGL position- cooperating with AAPL on AI- Bought a new AAPL position.
NDAQ- got the upmove above my entry- set a $0.20 TR stop.
Took a loss in CPNG last week -took a new entry on today's bullish up move-
Got a trailer load of mulch to put out today and another trip to get a new load-
Great deal at the local County recycle center for mulch, compost etc. They gave me 2 yards of mulch for $23. Great deal.
EOD- Pleased to get the fixed rate returns from the CD's- in the IRA account- An important point when buying a CD- get the highest rate you can, and for a longer term CD, get the non-callable Cd which the bank cannot repossess at their discretion.
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Post by sd on Mar 19, 2024 6:48:43 GMT -5
3.19.2024 a lot of Red pre open- waiting on the minutes of the FOMC -to be released
Yesterday's Close was net positive- Today's open looks to negate that.
SMR trade was exited yesterday- It shows as a big loser today
Started with a loss on TZA...
Gains in SG , FCG- FCG sold - SG active trade 11:15- sold 1/2 and stop right at the gap for a net gain $12.52
Set a buy-stop order to fill above the green bar @ 11:30 -
The buy-stop order fills- Price bar closes higher- sell 1/3 to lock in net gain- stop raised to my Entry-
2nd bar moved higher, but closing lower- stop raised to $22.59
Price consolidated on this higher move- potentially will see more upside momo
![]() i.imgur.com/RwbeJD2.png
Raised the stop on the bullish green bars- Stop triggers $22.72
New entry stops out - new buy-stop order set higher.
I jumped in early, added 1 position below the buy stop- added a 2nd position- Price came back to within 1/2 cent of triggering my stop $22.69
Trade is trending higher- but stop is still below my net averaged cost .Not getting the multiple green rising bars I am looking for-
still holding 75 shares with a stop $22.88- sold50 shares $22.94-- a new buy-stop order @ $23.04
Higher buy-stop fills- the combined position stop now 175 shares at a very tight $22.97 - I will lose $7 on the recent higher buy-stop if it triggers- but offset with the raised stop for the 75 shares profitable.
SG 12:50 pm failed to make a higher high and pulled back, triggering the stop for the entire position-
one more try- buy stop fills again - stop $22.98 /150 shares. SPXL trade and AAPU both are profitable- Turning into a bullish day. added NVDA as well.
SPXL- tight stop triggers nets $1
Jumped into NVDA- got stopped out for a -$30 loss on 5 shares- Went back in on the upswing with 3 shares.
sg rolls over and stops out and dives lower.
AAPU- AAPL bull is trending
Re entry SG on the upmove off the swing low
Entry cost was $22.678- stop initially $22.57 raised to $22.63 as price pulled back, then moved higher.
sTOP WAS RAISED TO B.E. $22.67 and then the Red bar dropped - and trade triggered @ B.E. @ 2:55
The better entry would have been on the trailing psar to be a buy @ $22.61
Re-entry at a higher price green bar. $22.74 and stop $22.66- not looking promising here.
stop triggers
SPxl stop triggers
SG stop triggers right after this screenshot- Loss -$3
The EOD for SG volatile- but possible accumulation
From the LB board- varieties in the approaches...
more complex -Forks & Fibs-
UPRO- 5 min
2 minute-2 day
2 minute- 1 day
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Post by sd on Mar 20, 2024 17:10:16 GMT -5
3.20.2024 BUSY day! Markets all making brand new highs-!!! The FED spoke and the markets digested the news as expected- and rallied higher-
Prior to the Fed speaking, I set several higher buy-stops that filled as price went up-
I also went all in in the IRA with some diverse positions and a focus on a mix of infrastructure and water/electrical and industrial ETFs.
I'll have to see if I can restrain myself from treating these as day trades-
Didn't take any time to post any charts today- Did have a winning TNA trade this am , but focused more on putting cash to work from a CD coming to maturity last week- and that cash became available- with a nice interest gain. Still have 2 other longer term cd's in that account- I think one is 18 mos and the other 3 years-
Still some very nice long term rates above 5% in the non-callable CD's- ideal way to provide some income above inflation without losing sleep with market fluctuations.
Loaded up the IRA today- With the FEd meeting done and a positive market response- ideally we will see some further upside this week..
I included some 3x leveraged etfs - for industrials, banks, and Home construction- Nail, BNKU,DUSL- all 3 sector industry groups are presently uptrending- so we'll see if I can handle these leveraged ETFs greater volatility- Cannot permit much downside pain- so ideally they will behave and make a higher Close tomorrow-
At this point in my investing, I tend to be less tolerant- If I buy at a correct point, the position should not pressure my entry by much-
The most difficult decision is to realize that the market volatility is designed to shake out weak hands -like myself. aLL TOO OFTEN , A TRADE SEES A DROP ON THE OPEN that takes out a stop and then reverses back to the upside.
Lately, I've used the stockcharts stock list and flipping over to the Summary setting periodically to determine which may be dropping into the Red- all too often, that initial reaction is false, and reverses to the upside- Tight stops get whipsawed- so the initial 5 minute chart may see the low of the day- By addressing the potential stocks losing value, it allows me to address the worst performer- and make the decision to tighten a stop- or to Sell- based on the downturn continuing.
Tonight on LastCall/CNBC- will feature a human subject that is using Elon Musk's Neuro Link -
We are living in the most amazing time in human history for technology to transform the world we exist in- Alvin Toffler- would be amazed... yet we take it for granted- or in stride-
Perhaps that's the evolution- that humans simply are bystanders as the tech pervades - and we use what becomes essential to us on a day to day basis -and are largely unaware of everything else that is occurring behind our awareness and experience-.
Amazing - the paraplegic subject was able to control a computer mouse only by his thoughts- What this technology offers to those disabled is potentially life changing-
What this technology offers as a human to computer interface via thought alone can be viewed from different perspectives- both wonderful in the freedom it gives some that are limited in mobility, speech, and also viewed as a potential threat if used for less than altruistic purposes-
Ultimately, the linking of human and machine/computer presents a huge potential gain ...
A video for subscribers to the LB board- Jase gives some very specific examples of how to interpret the indicators in a trade one has a position in -or is considering- using divergences in the indicators compared to the price action is a early tell on what the trade may be presenting-
www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwGild30iD8
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Post by sd on Mar 21, 2024 7:22:07 GMT -5
3-21-2024 Futures all in the green premkt!
IRA is loaded up- we'll see what remains at the EOD-
Positions as of the EOD 3.20.2024- Plenty of Green at yesterday's Close-
Added some Risk positions using leveraged ETFs for exposure to large cap financials, industrials,home construction, energy -
Don't know how many of these will get stopped out today, but with the strong Open indicated, ideally there will be plenty that don't trigger stops .
Will be viewing these positions with a chart showing the combined 15 minute and the 1 hour-
Won't be focused on making any day trades- but may buy the SPXL at the open- and for any gap away large moves-
limit buy AAPD-
Amazing Day! Positive moves in most positions! only 4 in the red modestly- KWEB stopped out; GOOGL is under pressure today-in the RED -PDBC is down as is IAK-
I've been aggressive with stops- to lock in gains -using some trailing stops and split positions-
Duplicate charts in the chart lists due to a 15 minute and a 1 hour in the list of each position
Covered my goals for a few weeks in 1 day -but seeing a lot of the green get smaller as the day rolls on-
GE position - nice gains, trailed a stop up, got triggered and re enterd-
Some serious price compression here at the Close!
EOD summary:
In the RED @ the EOD- LLY stopped out for net gains, GOOGL lost on the day but stop is in place to retain gains on any further weakness- likely lower on the AAPL news today of the DOJ investigation.
BITO trade netted gains, and the stop triggered as the trade went South.
KWEB wqs a losing trade. Reddit - RDDT trade-was an IPO that I lost on immediately-
Overall,I was lucky to be positioned on the right side of the move- Thank you Powell!
I feel that my days posting here are numbered- This Forum has been beneficial to me as it has kept me connected with the markets almost daily- for years-
I also thought that my daily mutterings may prove fruitful for others that stop by here on occasion-
I felt that by chronicling my daily trades, it keeps me better focused - However, I should have learned to take an investor's mindset- trend trading- and I am not geared for that -
But that's where the long term gains come in - something that's not achieved by intraday scalp trades....
Plenty to do outside of the markets- and as Spring comes in, plenty of outstanding chores to attend to-
The lure of the day trade is substantial- You feel as though you have greater control-- but tonight I'll have to see how the positions I held over today with stops to lock in profits will behave at tomorrow's Open...
Beyond my control.
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Post by sd on Mar 22, 2024 7:04:02 GMT -5
3-22-2024
Futures shifting into a bit on the Red side-
Will have to decide before the Open whether to pull the stops and allow some give back if that trend continues...
Repurchased AVGO- profits from yesterdays giving a nice margin- the trailing stops -3 were sold yesterday as price declined- nice relative gains due to the momentum move- Today's entry- just 2 shares- risks $40 stop under today's low.
Similarly GE had gains- repurchased today. but it rolled over and stopped out-
AAPD- added more today but it stopped out
Today, it's a matter of adjusting stops to protect gains where possible and prevent further losses where not- It's 11 am, and markets have not made a turn to the upside..
looking for the turn- Buy stop to add to PHO -on an upmvoe from this retracement.
Days like today -when things open up higher for a number of positions, only to drop back lower- ideal to have a trailing stop to capture that higher move-
I had cancelled the trailing stops I had this am- on 1/2 a dozen positions.
Just a grind today-lower- Have a nice profit cushion in GOOGL- Googl had a up move today, and so I used a buy-stop to add to the position- but tightened the stop to under the swing low on where I added.
EOD- GOOGL didn't trigger the stop by the EOD-
Also got an upgrade from Webbush ...as z best idea- found that out after buying more today on the stronger price action.
Will look at what my net average higher cost is, and will widen the stop for Monday..
EOD- the AVGO trade entry failed to capture an upmove turn- Just allowed the stop to work for a small net loss- Had substantial prior gains from yesterday...
But, at the EOD gave back 50% of the gains I had yesterday-
Bought SPXL,repurchased ETN, ADP, Pave, PDBC, pdp,pho, xmmo.
This week had added size to a number of positions- Got rewarded when we moved higher- but I have to give back on the gains-!
EOW sector Performance
YTD:
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Post by sd on Mar 22, 2024 20:15:22 GMT -5
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Post by sd on Mar 23, 2024 7:12:52 GMT -5
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Post by sd on Mar 23, 2024 9:00:40 GMT -5
aFTER VIEWING THE CHARTS- WITH vwap, mY INITIAL TAKE-A-0WAY IS THAT pRICE MAY REVOLVE ABOVE AND BELOW THE Vwap on multiple time frames from fast to higher.
I can see where having the ability to adjust the Vwap using the anchored vwap tool may prove to be more relevant-
I didn't include each chart with the MACD and stochastic-
2MIN
3MIN
3 MIN.
VWAP- 5 MINUTE CHART-
vWAP 10 MINUTE
15 MINUTE
1 hOUR
2 HR
DAILY
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Post by sd on Mar 25, 2024 18:33:55 GMT -5
3.25.24- EOD- After a birthday & family meet up for one of our granddaughters at a park yesterday, we carried 2 of them home yesterday and spent today doing very little stock focus and more family time-
Tried to show the eldest and explain a stock chart- but maybe in another year or two that will be of interest...Just learning to work with fractions- and learning Roman Numerals- but smart for their ages!
Dis and BA- both rebounding on investor mandated changes- Peltz on the Dis board and BA shake up with the CEO going to retire and the chairman stepping down...both stocks rebounding recently on the changes that are being made.
Reds were on order this am and that's how the day finished-Although I had net gains in the Roth as stops triggered-
Note that Energy is the market leader for today, 2nd place for the week , and the leader for the Month.- This is market rotation at work,.
Don't get too hung up on what was the old names-the past leaders- focus on where the Puck is heading...as they say in Hockey...
DJT - the Trump new DWAC spac relisting... opens tomorrow-
Trump has to hold for 6 mos, but can ask for the board to give him early exit rights.
The company that underlies the ticker is a losing company , and this is as much of a MEME stock as there ever has been-
It's hard to believe that the US Justice system and the NY courts can be so manipulated-
Without going on a political rant, Americans are so polarized this past decade + - But we need to be aware when power is being used indiscriminately.
Hard to believe Biden and Trump are the best candidates the Country can come up with! Certainly there are alternative moderates that could appeal
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Post by sd on Mar 26, 2024 7:51:51 GMT -5
3-26-2024 Futures in the green..
GUSH,AAPD,SPXL day trades filled.-
EOD- they all stopped out as the markets soured- including BNKU
IOT yesterday opened a position up this am.
Kept this trade Open as a potential swing -but not liking the larger market weakness-
Headed out in the pm to get a trailer load of mulch- back in time to see the markets were all rolling over, and was able to set this stop under that afternoon pullback-
Stop was not triggered, but I will have to see where the markets are showing before the open- I wanted to try for a 3 day swing to that target are reached previously- but it likely will be pulled down on a weak tech sector tomorrow.
MITK- held up at the Close- took a starting position-
AAPD is the only other position- I re entered this after the 1st entry triggered the stop.
Trump Media DJT combined with Trump Social today- Trump is supposed to have to hold his millions of shares for 6 months, but he has an Option to go before the board to request he be allowed to sell out of some of his position early-
With a $175 M bond he has to put up pending his appeal in NYS judgement for more millions (375?)- it likely would become an easy source of funds.
Saw on CNBC- The Trump media company has $4 Million in Revenues and 60 Million in Liabilities- and today's stock hype has the company valued in Billions.
All cash now in the IRA- The Price to be paid for not allowing room to give much back.
Lots going on at WWW.Leavittbrothers.com-
Traders giving great chart examples and explanations. Valuable lessons to be found there for those willing to spend the time and effort to learn to 'see' what the chart is offering-
From the LB board- JR posted a VRTX chart- and i like the way it Closed at a higher high for the past days at this price level.
Since it's a pricey $400+ stock, I can only allow myself a smaller share qty - and -if the buy-stop triggers, I will use the 414.00 level as a certain indication that the trade is going against me.
I have a fairly large% now in Free cash - and will take an initial buy using 20 shares-- with essentially a $6/sh loss as a very small % at Risk relative to the buy-stop entry -of less than -1.5% with a target $434.00
The benefit of following the actions of other traders at LB is a very valuable lesson -often daily-
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Post by sd on Mar 27, 2024 8:16:21 GMT -5
3.27.2024- Futures up in the greenosphere !
VRTX buy stop -lmt $419.50 -420 initial wide stop risks $6 414.00 - Risk =-1.43% - However, if the trade fills and goes up as I expect, the breakout may see a retest- but I'll have to tighten the stop-
$4`16-$418 range should be support -
vrtx TRADE GAPPED HIGHER on the open- my buy stop-lmt filled at the limit $420.00
Trade declined quickly from the open
Gains in the IOT and MITK trades. 2 swings- IOT hit the stop under the swing low Close yesterday. MITK position was taken at yesterday's close- stop is set at the 50 ema on the 2 min chart.
TSLA -taking a trade in TSLA- Had a bounce from the AM gap up- then decline to a new lower low than yesterday's Close- Small position -Initial entry Risk is just .7% on the trade
Giving this a $1.25 Trailing Stop-
CNBS- Seymour cannabis ETF
Tsla with the trailing stops getting closer to the entry -reducing the net Risk as price moves higher.
This is a small position- 2 ways to manage a higher momentum move would be to split the position and sell at a sign of weakness- and to allow the remainder to trail price- knowing that I will seell if price pulls back from any higher level by $-1.25
@ 11:30- Price has been obliging by moving up- and the trailing stop rising with each higher move-
The stop is almost to my entry cost - Present Risk on this trade is .13%
@ 12:00- Price had pulled back very close to the stop-
but then moved a step higher ...
Stop is now above my entry cost-
At this point,12:30 price is trending well- The trailing stop is now $179.49- so the net gain is +0.5% at this point
I elected to split the trailing stop position- 1/2 at $0.50 as price made a bigger move- which triggered almost immediately on a pullback.
The remaining 1/2 I set a $1.30 TR stop.
Both stops get triggered- on the price weaking off a momentum up surge.
Price basing-
A re entry on the early hooks may be premature - no MACD cross
Important lesson here- the fast 3 minute showed hooks, but we failed to get close on the MACD cross- I properly set a very tight stop which triggered a few minutes after entry.
Stopped out $179.85 with the recognition that this was a premature re entry.
Made some added trades this afternoon in TSLA-
1 premature early entry based on a try by price to reverse the decline- That failed for a small give back from the am profits.
I like what I did as I got more patient, watched the indicators closely, and the improving macd as price made a sideways basing move.
Stops out- saw that failure of price to hold the upthrust made @ 2:55
Net gains in the trade.
CNBS - Trade worked well with a gap higher after we entered- LOLO took her position along with me-
This is the better trade for the day- just 250 shares and the gain there for today is $70.00 - While my exercise in trading TSLA used a much larger $$$ allocation
With the stop at a tight Risk now, I'll try to let this ride-
Several of the Traders @ the LB website- use a very fast 1 minute and 10 minute chart for setting up trades-
Beast, Rat, GEO- and perhaps others.
Devoid uses a 5 minute time frame and a 2 h chart for swing trades- His entry signals on both are consistant and few...
If you have stumbled onto this thread, give yourself a free trial to Www.Leavittbrothers.com to learn from some very experienced traders that actually trade-
Jason also offers several courses- Masterclass and a 'Intangibles' series of recordings that delve into the trading mindset- falsehoods, and traps that we are all likely to use that sabotage our results.
So, if you are not satisfied with the results in how you presently trade- give his courses a try- and take advantage of the free trial at the LB website.
Pay attention to the market rotating into defensive areas-- Tech is down on the 1 week- the only sector that is negative for the week.
Devoid has one of the most basic entry systems I have ever seen- As an engineer by profession, he eliminates unnecessary fluff and surplus indicators-I've been following his posts and his generous explanations of what his thought process is when he posts. There's a nuanced understanding of the price behavior that only comes with experience, multiple trades, an awareness of the larger market conditions- In past times, I had noticed how he would often jump into a trade right after a bearish red bar close- well in advance of the macd CROSS ON THE 5 - WHICH TAKES 30 MINUTES TO TRANSFORM AT TIMES AND PRICE SUBSTANTAIALLY HIGHER . caps not intended. but perhaps worth paying attention to-
The charts he and others provide with explanations for an audience of aspiring traders - are a valuable resource found at the LB members forum.
Some of the other traders have multiple indicators and duplicate ones and fib and forks etc- while others are focused on the swing trades and daily charts.
I think the ideal combination is getting that early entry using a fast time frame chart and allow it to become the basis for a swing trade, if one is targeting a swing.
some commentary around the Tsla trade- Rat had an early entry in TSLA which prompted me to take a later trade as part of a study today.
I ended up with 5 winning trades in Tsla, and 1 small loss. Felt pretty good as i was viewing the trades on a fast 2-3 min chart for that better insight- into price action.
PSAR SIGNALS -Noted on the 5 m time frame...
I have to point out that the PSAR declined from the entry high and it was 12:15 when Price pushed up enough to trigger a buy-stop -
There was a bullish green Elder bar @ 11:40 that failed to find any follow thru. Devoid noted when asked- that he didn't take the early MACD upcross seen @ 10:30, because he wanted to see the fast 3 ema also cross the 8 ema. that happened prior to the psar @ 11:45 - but- take notice- he didn't blindly jump in and buy there- he waited until another price dip-red bar, and bought just as that bar closed and nailed a low entry. That's an astute trader reading the price action- by the time he entered , the MACD had made a 3rd kiss (DIP) - He responded to my questions on his taking a conservative stance compared to other periods when I had seen him jump in aggressively following a lower RED bar Close-
What I am doing is reverse engineering the trade he posted- asking myself the WHY did he ignore the early MACD and Stochastic signals-
He responded -which I will post later -
The 3 min chart-Note that the fast psar buy signal as a buy-stop was not reached- but the psar buy signal occurred as only 2 green bars followed. The slow psar joined as the fast psar went into overhead buy-stop- which worked @ 12:10 on the initial up move- That entry would have captured profits- and stopped out @ 1:00
The next fast psar as a buy-stop would not have been triggered- although the fastpsar signaled a Buy- that would have stopped out.
The 2:15 BUY-STOP would have filled with 5 higher bars - the opportunity would be a tight $0.15 gain to exit on a tight stop - The psar would have been a losing stop on the 3rd red bar .
The 3:25 price bar would have filled a buy-stop $61.15 (fast psar) and would have seen price Close $61.95. a nice $0.80 gain.
The 2M chart : a lot of choppy price moves- the 3 ema well away from the 34 ema until a 12:15 initial crossover. So, this is a good example of not trusting the indicators alone-
Must be taken in the context of the bigger picture- so a 3 ema on this time frame crossing the 8 still appears to add validity to the indicator signal.
Expect a 2nd decline following the 1st attempt for Price to make an attempt to R.O.T.
Something else I need to pay attention to- The light brown Vwap line that ended at $61.38 @ 4 pm-
Some traders view the VWAP as a resistance level if price is below- and a potential area of interest and support if Price holds above.
As I drill down on the time frame, the price action exchange seen in smaller price bars - there are often levels where price will hold as buyers step in-
The 1 M time frame - Potentially - watch the VWAP -price is so far below -
The trade potentials are smaller in stature -individually, but with great potential for scalps. Low Risk- well defined stops.
![]() i.imgur.com/4VFsnWE.png![]()
Challenging- and keeping me engaged...
This is a continuous challenge- always changing- This market timing thing... Not for the weak nor timid- Few will persist I expect- but developing the ability to 'Read' the price on multiple time frames is an ability worth trying to learn...
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Post by sd on Mar 28, 2024 7:55:28 GMT -5
3.28.2024 Futures mixed on the jobs report- Markets closed Tomorrow- PCE report tomorrow will set the tone for Monday.
Jason Leavitt covers some of the recent potential trades that are winners, and still alive.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLCoGg_DQ3s
Carryover CNBS- protecting the profits-stop $5.80 low today $5.83-
Again, this is a gappy low volume -wider spread- Decent gains from an entry yesterday before it broke higher with 250 shares.
AAPD trade -added to the position - stop $22.60 - AAPL chart left -declining- AAPD chart right- small volume- choppy price action This trade from Tuesday was in the RED-
The add today allowed me to enter and capture an upmove, and got stopped out at B.E. at the averaged cost- That accomplished my net goal- that tightened stop got triggered -out for pennies, and since, price gapped up higher- This is a difficult vehicle- note the gaps in the day where no trading occurs-
Conversely, I have watched AAPL as it declined this am, -presently lower low on the day followed by a tight higher inside bar- @ 170.74. 171-171.40 - like this as a potential entry where I can set a tight stop at just under today's low initially $170.51- so my stop will be $170.48
Setting a buy-stop limit
www.youtube.com/watch?v=qexPbyc0xoc
bUYING aapl IN THE CONSOLIDATION WITH A SMALL STOP TO THE P.O.F. (point of Failure)
I added a buy-stop to add into the AAPL position.
Regardless of how this overall trade works out- there are aspects here that are lessons I think I've been learning that I'm putting into action-
Recognizing a potential bottom may have been put in place- as price made a lower low.
The indicators-MACD however showed a positive divergence -
I noted the sideways base, and it's close proximity to the LOD- Low of Day- Which-call me superstitious, was almost right at the 1/2 dollar number $0.50 $170.51 low.
My inital buy was 25 $170.72 with a relatively tight stop $170.48 -Risking $0.24 on the 25 shares. or a net -$6 on that portion.$4k+
I then had a higher buy-stop that I lowered to be just above the top of the consolidation filled @ 170.95-
This makes the combined average cost $170.84-
With the buy stop doubling the position size, I raised the stop to almost B.E. on the 1st position cost $170.70 - so the net Risk from the higher entry of 25 shares is the total Risk -aside from slippage.
Risk is now $0.25 for the 2nd entry, which averages out to a total of net $0.15 Risk for 50 shares = -$7.50.on a position size of $8,500.00 -
This is ridiculously tight relative to the dollar value - Trying to finesse that tight stop too aggressively- but it's part of an approach I hope to employ on future trades-
Get that tight entry- tight stop- and while it may have a high ratio of losers-as long as the losses are well controlled, one good runner will cover 5 losers.
I just lowered the stop $0.02 to $170.68 after that red bar pullback almost triggered my $170.70 stop.
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red bar pullback -almost......
Trade looks to be trying to move in my favor @ 12:40- stepping up a tad higher-
Not seeing much upside momentum compared to AAPL's price action yesterday- I'm going to allow this trade to work itself out- with my stop still at a technical loss
If we got a $2 or $3 move, I'd be taking some profits... selling part or most of the position- Don't know that AAPL IS A GOOD LONG PROSPECT HERE.
Price made a Higher Low - and then approached the 1 pm highs again- This chart shows that price needs a Close above the prior highs for a new HH. It does-
2 pm- a HH is made but followed by a retest lower pullback bar- This sets the tone - What direction follows? Note that the earlier price had a similar test bar- followed by a move higher-
that's what I need to see here.
2.27 PM TRADE HAD A PAUS/CONSOLIDATION- Raised a manual stop for 1/2 and a $0.50 trailing stop for the remainder.
Will tighten up the manual stop on any red bar drop.
2:30 -AAPL trade working
2:38 Trailing a stop with psar for 1/2. The $0.50 tr stp is now $171.35
2:40 PM - THE PSAR STOP triggers a sell. the trailing stop is active $171.43 tRAILING STOP NOW $171.59 AS I TOOK A LATE LUNCH as usual.-
3.27 pm- the Psar stop triggered- I did not take the reentry signal
The trailing stop is presently $171.72
![]() i.imgur.com/c0R0RIc.png![]()
Runner into the CLOSE?
By approaching this AAPL trade and splitting the stops as I did, satisfies capturing a portion of the gains when price weakened. I saw the potential for a re entry signal above that level, but elected to not complicate the trade overall- Won't hold this over a long weekend- Total crap shoot on what the market may do-
Trade looks to be tanking @ 3:50 came close to triggering the trailing stop as it penetrated the prior-lower consolidation area.
Amazing green bar followed that thrust lower.
EOD summary- Winning day today- Only position I'm holding over the weekend is a GUSH-position -3x energy.
I have a lot of 1 share positions overall- useful for tracking purposes and to see what's gaining and what's losing.
The AAPL trade- was a useful exercise as i got out with a net win on AAPD and flipped to trade it's inverse counter trade- AAPL.
The CNBS trade ended up giving back some gains and stopped out but profitable.
Put this trade in Context- AAPL had a single wide ranging bullish day yesterday preceded with 4 sell-off days
Today's price action was an inside day bar with the Open $171.75, seeing a drop in the am- higher rally and a lower Close $17.48.
So, If one bought AAPL at today's Open, they ended up in the RED at the Close-
by capturing an entry near the low of Day, this turned out to be a winning trade with less Risk.
I'm a poor swing trader, because I cannot allow for a big swing lower- Hopefully I become a better day trader-
As jason has pointed out in his masterclass and on videos, one only needs to get proficient at a strategy applied to only a small group of stocks-
With the wide number of leveraged and inverse ETFs - the potential for larger % moves using leveraged offers more bang for fewer dollars.
Stocks that are Sold a big promising story- - but how often does an individual stock tank after an earnings disappointment?
With the potential for more diversity in holdings, capturing a sector trend is safer than trying to find the 1 or 2 stocks leading- and with 1/3 of the money,one can take an investment with a leveraged ETF.
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Post by sd on Mar 29, 2024 6:55:03 GMT -5
Friday- MKTs Closed- Some charts I posted on LB.
pUTTING THE 3-27 CHART IN CONTEXT :
!st point to Note- This last chart is a 5 minute chart- signals would have been sooner on the 3 M charts posted above- Just gets too crowded to view over multiple days on the faster charts.
Things to focus on in making the trade-
Knowing the prior day's action was a bearish Close-
The 3-27 gap up Open was a bull-trap- as that 1st bar failed to move much higher off the Open.
Not buying the Open bar would have saved one a lot of immediate disappointment-
Watching the price action on the faster time frames to see where price was heading- can be a more prudent approach.
Notice on the 5 M chart, the MACD was heading down below the 0.0 line from the prior day- the fast 3 ema hooked up, but was still not crossing the 8 ema-
The RSI spiked higher and the stochastic hooked up- but it would be a whipsaw.
The 2 M chart for 3-27- compare the faster potential signals
tHE FASTER the time frame, potential signals to buy are more common early- and that will cause more potential whipsaw trade failures-
As Beast @ LB points out - trade with 2 charts in focus- he prefers the 1minute along with the 10 minute- The longer time frame chart to put the faster chart in context.
As I want to consider using the faster charts- and this next chart is annotated with some observations
aS Price Declined lower on Bar 2,bar 3- the direction is established ...trend is to the downside.
When viewing these fast 1 M price bars- and the trend- try to think of them as being a series of Daily bars- and some potential attempts to go higher, before the trend actually reaches a bottom, and then turns back higher-
The 9:45 sees a V reversal-blue bars turning to the bullish green and it reached $178.40 - The trailing psar $178.60 was not reached-
Why is this relevant? Because the Psar can be used both as a trailing Stop and as a potential entry with a Buy-Stop
A Psar Buy & stop-loss is generated due to the positive volatility of the price bars- but buying into this 1st assert -would end up being a losing premature entry.
Notice that If one had jumped in there- on a 1st assert- that a Retest is typical off a bottom. The Red circle demonstrates the price action to assert itself is being tested- After 5- 1 minute bars, the 'test' fails as price declines below the red bar low prior to the price assert.
Note that the MACD, stochastic and RSI all had hooked and moved higher on the 1st assert - so following the indicators on the 1st assert would encourage the entry- but perhaps waiting for the V bottom pullback Test before jumping in would provide the ideal entry on a move higher out of the test area.
The net failure of a move to a Lower Low sees a sideways consolidation- a basing action - and this provides the best entry of the day.
Not only are the indicators showing a positive higher divergence, a buy-stop above the the consolidation - $176.80 would be rewarded with a bullish upside move entry ahead of reaching the overhead psar. @ $177.20.
Entry in a BASE consolidation- I'm learning to use this as a potential entry for at least a partial position- and perhaps will develop a feel for it to add some size -relative to what is at Risk
LB-1- WE HAVE A LL RED BAR @ 10:01- FOLLOWED BY 5 BULLISH BLUE BARS. tHE PRICE RANGE COVERED BY THESE bARS IS A WIDE $0.60 .
iF ONE NOTICES THE BARS FIND A BOTTOM- AREA -$176.20 FOR EXAMPLE, A LIMIT ORDER TO GET FILLED CLOSE TO THAT LOW , Would use a stop under the LOwer Low.
Risk would be $0.24 or so, as a stop would want to allow a $0.02 drop below the LL.
BS-1- BUY-STOP ENTRY 1 - place to enter or to add IF ONE TOOK A PARTIAL ON THE lb-1 -
tHIS ENTRY LEVEL RECOGNIZES THE HIGHS MADE INSIDE THE CONSOLIDATION AS BEING UNDECIDED.and the buy stop is above the highs of the consolidation-
Again, this is a wide ranging consolidation- Sloppy- But the concept extends to also look for consolidation/Basing during other times during the day- Generally will be tighter as price is settling closer/tighter between buyers and sellers.
The positive of this as an entry is the emas are widely apart, and a move up on an assert that is deeply oversold ...Notice how strong and wide the individual bars are as buyers rush in.
PSAR BUY 1 - As Price reaches the declining Psar- z Buy-stop using the Psar 177.20 would get filled. This is $1.20 from the LL made 9 minutes earlier .
That's too wide as a stop-and there are too many consecutive green bars preceding- so PSAR is a relatively late signal...
a re test as price regains the ema's is to be expected - So, the red bar volatility that tested the thrust to R.O.T. reverse the trend higher gets a volatile Price assert test bar. An entry at PSAR Buy 1 would likely be stopped out as psar stop goes $0.50 higher- but the options would be to have a take profit partial sell, and set a stop to cover the remaining position up to break even. I would likely have a stop below the red bar consolidation @ $177.40 for the remaining position.
A Side Note here is that the brown line is the VWAP- Volume weighted average price -Considered by many to be an important level that price should stay above when trending--
The following consolidating range bound price action is subject to multiple psar signals- in a consolidation- so viewing Price itself in a sideways range is an essential tool. Notice Price tries to trend @ 11:10, a sharp volatile pullback , into a consolidation, that tightens up- Price had moved far enough higher in these upthrusts to lock in some gains, as they pull away from the emas - a trend thats not sustainable.. Notice the trailing psar as a stop-loss often works well in such a trend- Also worth noting- I use the ELDER Price Bars which change color on changes in the momentum direction- so any sing Red bar- in a trend -is reason enough to raise a stop below the bottom of that bar- particularly should it close below the uptrending 8 or 10 ema.
I'll include an enlarged partial screenshot of the price bars chart, and a wider screenshot of the entire price chart , and a final with the indicators I tend to use -
Why get this deep into the woods? Yes, it's a labor to do so- Most won't have the desire or the energy to bother. I find it a challenge to drill down -and learning from the example set by others.
As I've noted in this thread, I largely follow the basic concept outlined by Devoid- a very simple strategy focused on a 5 Min chart with just a MACD and a stochastic, and some moving averages-- His ability to enter and stay into a trade for the entire day in trending markets -and allow some price volatility back to a rising 34 ema on the 5- often keeps him in the trade for the entire day- That said, I also have seen how he does not always wait for the MACD cross of the 0.0 line-
but often will buy early as a momentum Red bar makes the low of the day- I call this "Front-running" the indicator signal. It's a talent he has developed after a decade + of using this very same strategy- but his overall 'sense' of reading the market conditions are a key to when he does-grab that early entry before any signal- just based on the Price action- For anyone reading this and interested- you can get a free trial at LB and you can search back daily -for over a decade on posts- and study posts and charts made by him- He often intentionally goes into detail for the readers...explaining the parameters of his trade and perspective.
I also requested and received a 20+ page study MMOY did on D's trading approach-
Having noticed how Devoid makes many early entries, I started comparing his 5 minute chart signals with a 3 minute and 2 minute chart-
I then saw that the same signals that evolved on the 5 minute time evolved a step or 2 sooner on the 2 & 3 minute time frames-
What is also evident, is that the faster the time frame, more potentially early but also potentially false signals are seen as well as the ones that evolve into a
winning entry- but so often the 5 min actual MACD cross is so late- 20-30 minutes - The histogram however- will show that the bearish action is now in moderation,and that is viewed as the histogram below the 0.0 line starts getting smaller as it moves in steps back towards the 0.0 line.
The histogram can be modified also to be faster than the standard 12-26-9- On this 1 minute chart, the light gold bars behind the price is a fast histogram- and notice how they mimic the price action-
One aspect of the MACD is that it can drop below the 0.0 line, yet price can continue to move higher-or lower-because it is measuring the moving average distance between what the bars are showing. Take a look at the histogram peaking at 12:00- and declining although price continues to trend higher.
It's important to recognize what the Price bars and the moving averages -and their proximity and direction tell you.
note the histogram declines but price-continues to trend higher @ 12:00
If you bother reading this far, and reviewed the faster time frame charts- and the indicators, take a moment and go back and look at Chart 1 - review my entries and exits - and where was I late - on entry or exit? Where could I have done better?
If any reader here has taken the time to look over what I tried to illustrate...
The answer -is Where would you have made a better entry or exit?
If you can recognize that -based on the 3 minute chart I was using - Consider that the Price action is exactly the same as what you see on a daily chart over months instead of hours-
So, If you -the occasional reader- only are accustomed to viewing a daily chart- Your are missing out on all of the interaction that goes on during the course of a day- So, consider testing out the 1 hour charts- OR 2 HOUR- CHARTS. OR EVEN A 4 HOUR CHART.
yES, The correct answer is my initial entry was very late- partly because I only looked at TSLA as a trade well after the open because it was mentioned later that morning on the LB board by Rat- who captured the earliest entry-
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Post by sd on Mar 29, 2024 21:04:17 GMT -5
Short week:
Market rotation continues as the markets trend higher- Is this the market's version of musical chairs?
When will we see even a modest correction? EOW sectors show utilities and energy leading-
These are defensive sectors- Tech lost for the week-
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