SD-2024 BE PROACTIVE-STOP THE W-C-S woulda-coulda-shoulda

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Friday 2.16.2024
Options expiration today- often volatile-
PPI report- Producer Price index this am-

SMCI price is $1,072 premarket- a +$68 gain overnight- Only 3 shares left, but I'll watch this open for which direction price goes on the 3 & 5 minute charts - with a potential +$200 overnight gain, I may try to add back 3 more shares sold yesterday- with NVDA momentum stalled this week- ahead of earnings. New price targets raised on NVDA to $800 by one firm and $1200 by another- They're all guessing- and late to the momentum-
Earnings coming up next Wednesday will be market moving- The major question is-"IN which Direction?"

Checking FINVIZ -SMCI - IT'S ATR IS $53- SO ABOUT 5% ; PE is 78 but projected forward PE 34.78 -
Short float is 10% Short ratio .74% - anyone short this has been part of the scramble to Buy back their shares at ever higher prices-


Taking a part of the

PPI comes in high .5 vs .1 expected.
Futures were mixed- with the Dow in The RED and the Nas was well into the green earlier- Now the NAS reaction drops from up over 100 to 21-but still green- as market participants and their Algos readjust their bids...

pOSITIONS held/taken yesterday. Had closed the day with plenty of Green- will not be the case this open.


I was short AAPL yesterday, but sold the AAPD- have it on the chart this am to see how it performs.
At the open-


Stops triggered- bought 2 $873.00

sold- new buystop $930
i.imgur.com/QGwmWhk.png
Gave it another go- bought 2 in the base $873- stop $864....moved stop down to $860.00 cutting it too tight.

The 5 min and the 2 min charts

Excellent chart study opp here as well- plus


11 am- Positions not showing much green -lackluster performance on an Options expiration day! 3 day weekend ahead-


11:07- the SMCI is making a slightly higher consolidation- just below my Buy-stop where I will add 1 share if Price goes up- Should this occur, I will tighten my stop to $875 for all 3 shares- essentially reducing the overall Risk on 2 shares to $0.0 , and i share to $31.00
Notice that the 5 minute chart 12-26-9 just went above the o.o line-



Buy-stop order fills-add 1 position -total is 3 - stop will be raised .

11:20- STOP RAISED FOR 3 SHARES -$874.00 stop- if triggered, 2 shares @ B.E. no Risk- 1 share - $31 loss.
The Expectation is that Price has based, consolidated , and with this upmove I added just 1 share- Overall markets are weak
If Price declines below to hit my stop- I'm not wanting to Risk a bigger loss with a stop at $864- for 3 shares-

My prior stops earlier all gained, and were raised-
I made several trades and I have to go back and check- I think 1 trade locked in gains and another took a loss.
Will get back to that later, need to review my other positions-
market trying to turn higher perhaps?
I Bought 2 more SMCI in this tight consolidation- Stop $874 for 5 shares-
SMCI is down on a downgrade today due to competition- but will this get buyers interested to get in here?


SMCI stops out after a tepid 2nd try - Gave back $55 on a total of 5 shares. Was hoping for a snap back up move on being oversold-
While this is a losing trade, I'll give myself a B+




re-entry on the bullish stochastic cross as an early signal


Had to repurchase 5 $825.66





Stopped out- wanted to try to allow a much larger up move- could have sold 1/2 perhaps .








eod- i like my entries- They provided a low Risk to the Point of Failure. 3 losing trades -I initially stopped out near yesterday's highs from prior swing positions with nice gains.

iLLUSTRATING Trade A on the 2 min chart... The initial fast drop- gets a 1st assert, and a fast 8-16-9 MACD cross up .
This entry is just above the Low of the day reaction @ 10:08


so, the drop was on volatility/selling- The 1st reaction to go higher when this occurs often has a pullback- that should not go below that Price swing low- in this case, I entered as price made a sideways base and got in near the lows of the base. This trade recognized the initial reaction off the low as a 1st attempt to Reverse the Trend...and the following pullback below the 3 ema set up a potential low Risk entry. I recognized that this is a sharp pullback in an uptrend, but have very nice gains from the swing buys and sells in SMCI over the past weeks.
The entry trades were technically good- The Opportunity to have protected some profits were there - but I was willing to fore-go selling into a small gain and willing to give price the opportunity to make that bigger up turn (Greed) . Trade A & Trade B really got in near the consolidation lows- Timing was excellent overall, and all 3 trades were followed with further upside moves.

3 day weekend- Indexes all rolled over - Options Exp may have played a part-

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3 day weekend-
This week, the semiconductor index SMH faded from leading the markets higher- the sharp drop Feb 13 tagged the prior resistance level 196. with a 5% decline
NVDA carries the megacap weighting in the SMH- and plays a major role in how the index performs. The SMH peaked as NVDA peaked- and the SMH weakened as NVDA weakens.
Jan 25 in the uptrend was the peak in momo in nvda that the index also matched. Similarly Beb 12- peak high was the index high -and notice the weakness that day as NVDA rolls over.



SMCI rolled over hard yesterday, and NVDA closed near the low of this week's sideways consolidation- Earnings on WED and it's Vital to not only the SMH but to the Tech sector that NVDA beats and exceeds expectations- Anything viewed as less than outstanding likely sees a market sell of the semis.

Going to view the SC scan of new highs on Friday, a number of semi conductor stocks are still trending- and the high SCTR rating indicates these have been trending for some time-
Note that the 1 hour chart of the SMH showed the Opening was strong- initially, but faded as the day wore on....Potentially some of these from the scan will keep going Tuesday-
However, if they simply match the performance of the smh and weakened into the Close ....perhaps it's time to be cautious...

stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.scan?s=TSAL[t.t_eq_s]![as0,20,tv_gt_40000]![th0_gt_am1,253,th]&report=predefall-
sort by industry group- -9 stocks come back with sctr ranks from 96.3-90.5.

Viewing this group, they all made new highs, but also weakened similar to the index in the afternoon/Close-

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Jason brings his perspective @ www.Leavittbrothers.com in his nightly reports and weekend Index report .

The volatility this week, with the sharp gap down Tuesday took many by surprise as the uptrend was seemingly solid until then.

His index report is more involved, but he reiterated his thoughts posted right after that drop last week, and puts some perspective there-

Unfortunately, I had many positions seeing my stops simply gapped over- and triggering lower-




Some members at LB pulled their stops entirely- to see if they'd get that post open rebound- because many of them trade with relatively tight stops-
I had a number of stops get triggered- and since many were recent adds, gains became losses- and others did not fully recover-

The Markets simply didn't slide lower- as it did Jan 31- Stops there would have triggered and locked in gains, and then could have been repurchased the following day, . Notice that the SPY went up Jan 18 - 30- and the momo was slowing until that break up move on Jan 30 made it look like another higher upswing was underway.
The 1 hour chart - so, since breaking up higher on Jan 19- , we've been in an uptrend (Higher highs, Higher Lows ).
Pullbacks in uptrends are normal - and the uptrending 100 ema on the 1 hour chart compares to a 15 ema on a Daily.
So following price on the faster time frame is fine for tight swing trades- but for longer term position traders- -the Daily gives the bigger view-
This 4 month Daily chart demonstrates how a buy and hold/wide stop aT THE 34 EMA - would have stayed outside of the pullbacks in the present uptrend- Similarly- a Closer stop- or a decision to exit the trade- potentially would have set a stop under a Close below the 21 ema-
That hasn't happened since the Nov rally started.

What would be the trade -off- ? A Close below the 21 ema would give back 2-3 weeks of potential gains.
A stop at the 34 ema would give back 3 weeks of potential gains.

The 50 ema stop would give back 4 weeks of gains
All of these are considering that the trend continues- sloping up and to the right-

What about the PSAR as a stop-loss?
Realize that the psar starts out too wide initially- based on the previous volatility-

In this Daily chart, the prior downtrend in October had a lot of downwards and strong momentum- This is shown by the wide gap in the emas from the slower emas. That makes the psar entry signal well above, and the psar as a stop too wide- -
What if an entry on a psar buy signal used an entry stop below the low of the preceding bar - (during a confirmed uptrend) .


Can't see giving back 3-4 weeks of gains- The very best gains came from buying the upmove Close- green bar Close following a red bar swing low.
Important to wait and not buy intraday -but to wait to see how price is behaving- and buy just before the close.

Heading out to the Raleigh Farmer's mkt -
















GE- position held strong and has since rallied higher-

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Tuesday - comes tomorrow along with a 2 HOUR SESSION WITH THE dENTIST- Not my favorite choice-and i'll miss the Open... and perhaps be home @ 11 am...

With 14 hours to go - Bloomberg is indicating a lot of Red in the Futures- but that can always change....Or Not.


With the markets realizing the reality of inflation persisting- the messaging from the FED is now coming to be heard- Higher for Longer-
An early Rate cut is not in the cards...

2.20.2024 With a few hours before the Open... Futures are solidly in the Red-


Back from the Dentist- markets selling off underway-
The TSLA trade


didn't take long- Will look for a pause near the $191.50 level- and possible higher basing from the swing low


Will we see price decline but make a higher swing low ?and then reverse to the upside? or break down to make a lower low?


I set a limit order to Buy $191.60 - and planned a stop under the prior swing low $190.90


i.imgur.com/umY67rK.png

So- the premise of entering the limit order at a price just above the prior swing low- was that this makes for a very low Risk entry- but it's in a downtrend today - much like the SMCI trades made on Friday- and 3 for 3 were losers- but net small losers-

My trade filled - and surprised that Price actually came right to the blue line- - about $0.42 above the prior swing low lows-
So, for 20 shares my Risk is defined as the 190.90 stop.

jEAPORADY 12:00



nOT A POSITION -tHE MOMO TO THE DOWNSIDE took control- no Buyers stepping in

tHE ROLL-OVER CONTINUES


EOD- the pullback and downside momo -down to 1 position XMMO which I added to early this pm due to the potential bullish price action on the 5 minute chart-
Price on this was greatly extended last week on the pull-away from the ema's-

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2.21.2024 -Futures are solidly in the RED-
The minutes from the FOMC meeting will be released at 2 pm today- That will set the tone for the markets to have an immediate reaction- .
I'm down to a single position XMMO - but likely will see it trigger a stop today- I'll wait to see how it behaves at today's initial open before I elect to Sell/stop out-

PANW- the cyber security leader drops $-90.00 on yesterdays earnings & guidance.

It's entirely probable that we've reached a peak for the time being as big cap tech sells-off- market rotation is investing elsewheres instead of chasing the few megacap tech-

10 am - Long 500 SOXS- THE semi bear 3x .
XMMO position- weak, -stop will be raised to $100.95 as it set a lower low from the open



soxs - stop $4.70 is - $0.07 @ Risk ($35.00) on 500 shares.
Note that Price dropped back to the $$4.72 prior low.

@ 10:10 XMMO trying to move up- soxs range-undecided...

From the LB board- Jase posted this amazing statistic showing how markets today- Top 10% dominate- not seen since the depression !
How offsides are we?


SOXS comes within $0.01 of my stop $4.70


XMMO TRYING TO RALLY- 10:20 AM


stop raised to lose 50% less on further weakness-
Spreads on this are a bit wide- the stop-loss filled @ $101.29 on the 80 shares.




10:35 am SOXS position still range bound


10:45- SOXS made a step up consolidation- I've raised the stop to Risk less- Not getting the upside momentum- I had hoped for here-
My perception is that the markets are selling and profit taking will extend particularly to the semi sector ahead of NVDA earnings-


AAPL is interesting here- It's been underperforming the tech sector- and this week tested the prior $180 lows FOR A 4TH TIME IN AS MANY MONTHS.
Todays attempt to move higher provides a very interesting entry as 3 prior times, price has rebounded when selling off this far-
Took a swing position here- The stop initially will be $179.00 - so I'm Risking $3.51 on a 30 share position- IF price drops back to $180 after this attempt to go higher, I'd expect the 180 level to fail on perceived overall market/tech weakness--
Potentially though- AAPL may rebound -is my expectation on entering this as a swing trade-

dIDN'T TAKE LONG FOR AAPL to break lower- As it moves below the prior Low of Day- Testing the 'breakout level from yesterday's price action- I'm elevating the stop-loss to just below that level-
QQQ's weakening as the day progresses-




12:18 pm- SOXS triggered my stop and went down to a matching low- but then rebounded- higher-



With NVDA on deck for earnings after the bell- The Biggest weighting in the SOXX index at +9% - NVDA results will move many markets.


Chop fest today- SQQQ moving up out of it's day long range


Added a number of positions going into the close- not tech related- using the 52 week high list scan.

NVDA beat expectations- but it wasn't a blow out - Initially the stock sold off AH, but is making it back and rising, pulling up the other semi stocks like SMCI-
Guidance conference after 5 pm- so this is a big deal for Tech/semis.

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2.22.2024
Replay of David Keller's on how the pros use RSI:

vimeo.com/915296640/00f2e1090d?embed_email_provider=mailchimp

David Keller- has his own website-referred to in the video, and is a Stock Charts Contributor- and also has daily videos on youtube.

Note the term 'Divergence'- simply means price is trending in one direction, but the indicator is showing the opposite.
Indicator divergences can often foreshadow a future change in price momentum-and or direction.

The standard RSI setting is a 14- day comparison- Notice where he suggusts using a faster RSI a 9 or even a 5 depending on the time frame- to get more timely signals. This is something I have tried to do- to adjust the indicator timing to better respond to price movements in a timely fashion.
Link to stockcharts- ChartSchool articles.
stockcharts.com/search/?q=rsi§ion=cs
@ 23 minutes in, Keller discusses the benefits of using a faster RSI setting - adjust the RSI to better fit the chart

The Bloomberg.com articles proclaim that NVDA saved the Rally and the futures were up +2%- at the time the articles were written- Look at the more subdued Nasdaq futures in the upper bar- @ 6:30 am- shows the Nas is not positive- but is actually now in the RED--0.32

Tech has been weakening for the past weeks- Attributed to a market that is rotating-and ideally seeing other sectors making some gains.
Perhaps the enthusiasm that flared up in the after hours on NVDA's results with positive overall forward guidance (but with a cautionary note about China as restricted)
potentially will this still mark a potential Top- Buy the rumor- Sell the news?


I'm looking at the stockcharts scan for Stocks making new 52 week highs- to get a sense of market rotations.
RRG charts by Julius K on stockcharts also provide a true look at rotations.
Daytrade candidates will likely continue to be the usual index 3x.

Watch how NVDA and SMCI perform today - Both will have wide gap up on the open- but not chasing either ...

Notice the rotation that is occurring:







Excerpt from Jase's nightly recap:

nASDAQ OPENING MUCH HIGHER- The Bloomberg futures were not updated to be premarket as I thought.

NOTICE THAT IN THE SCAN lists for yesterday-
the number of bullish compared to the number of bearish.



Cannot bring myself to chase on this wide an open - Did buy the XLG, XMMO and CALF - but CALF underperformed the IWM- and so it triggered the stop I initiated on the 1st morning swing low- Shame- I thought it would be leading in the smalls.
GE making a new high- will repurchase - Locked in some profits last week in GE- when it weakened.

HWM- BOUGHT A PARTIAL YESTERDAY , Added more at today's bullish breakup move.

pcar day trade

xyl -looking to use a buy-stop on this as an infrastructure play for 2024



@ 12:00 i NOTED THAT rat HAD SHORTED SOXL-a bit earlier- and he had to take some heat - when I viewed SOXS - it had made a 1st thrust R.O.T. attempt- and-as is often seen, that failed and a 2nd leg lower followed, and based along the $4.00 level- I bought it @ $3.99, with a $0.03 stop as my RISK if the SMH goes still higher.



Gave the stop another $0.01-
The SMH is right at the highs of day- Will there be a thrust higher?


Also, shorting AAPL with AAPD- AAPL is failing to hold it's higher move



the XYL buy-stop order has not filled by moving up- as price is pulling back today, I'll adjust the buy-stop lower
AAPL is holding and starting to move up @ 12:30- The AAPD trade will stop out for a net $0.09 loss if AAPL sees any further upside....

AAPD sells $21.28 @ 12:54.
XMMO, HACK, xlg, HWM winning so far today.
RSPG- EW energy flat-

SOXS stops out $-18 .00 sold 499 @ $3.95-
Prompting a re-entry as price quickly moved back up- If there's any fade in the SMH, My re entry $3.98 risking another $0.04 / 500

This is in anticipation that the buying momentum will naturally take a pause this pm- and some trimming may occur - Should I be proven wrong a 2nd time- I'll be taking this as a $40 lesson for the day.

Learned that lesson indeed! Took that loss as the markets continued to strengthen.
I ended up doing a lot of Buying this afternoon- the Positive growth in NVDA, and the earnings reports tells the markets that these valuations are warranted.
I went through the new highs list for the Nas and NYSE and made a lot of diversified purchases- I had gone in large this am on the XLG in terms of position size- and XMMO also made a nice gain -and I doubled the position later....
I 'm intentionally diversifying the holdings- Adding some foreign exposure MELI, GLIN, DXJ,EMXC, HEDJ.
I'm disappointed with the undderperformance of CALF compared to the IWM, and instead purchased IWL- The top 200 Russell.etf.

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2.23.2024 aFTER A HUGE DAY YESTERDAY, Futures are in the green slightly this am.

I took a lot of diversified positions from the stocks making new highs - scans- intentionally diversifying-
Will see how that works out and if I can stomach a small dip ...
I added MELI as one of those and it reported after the bell and apparently disappointed- the after hours shows it in the Red-
I'll give it a few minutes on the open to see if it is one of those over reactions- and if it rebounds higher- or continues to decline.

Candleglance charts of the 11 sectors and the SPY- Utilities and Real estate weakest


bUSY THIS AM with setting stops - after the open -
MELI- I bought yesterday on the price breakout- as I went through the new high scans to find potential diversified stocks that weren't all tech related-
I didn't do any research as I was busy buying into a strong Close - and Meli had earnings after the bell- and apparently missed expectations-
I took a sharp loss on a 100 share position as it gapped down lower on the open.


Overall, momentum after an initial up start for stocks has faded. This is not a total surprise considering the magnitude of yesterday's momentum.

Seeing red and a number of positions taken yesterday from the new Highs initially started off, but faded-
Not giving much leeway with stops-



Adding to the BOTZ position - but the Stop is just below the swing low.


MELI is an expensive stock- The so-called Amazon of S. America-
I saw this on the SC charts summary page at the open as a big red bar- which should have had me go to it immediately- I glanced at it, saw I had just 1 share- and failed to recognize that it was the entire position- I usually will keep 1 share of a position to not stop-out so I can keep it on the page
An act of desperation on the MELI being in a losing position, and seeing the upswing off the deeper bottom ( I should have stopped out after the 1st 5 min bar's low was exceeded. ) Or sooner- as Price dropped $50 in that 5 minute period! So, a purchase on the upswing- to reduce the position average cost is indeed a reflection on my Not taking action at that Open- The add comes a bit late as I finally realized that the 1 share was the entire position with a cost of $1,800+
The $1625 entry is a desperate act- but the stop now for the combined 2 shares is at $1608.00 Risking $17 on the 2nd share - but as I write this , the position is rolling down- and I'm not very optimistic. I was hoping to see a much stronger R.o.T. and reduce the loss by selling 2 shares @ $1700.00 for a small loss.






12:30 - a bit of a consolidation @ $1620 base -if this gives way, I'll be stopped out as it beaks $1608.



the tight price bar action seen at this basing holds a glimmer of hope for a potential resumption of the attempt to regain some upwards trend...

12:36 Maybe....d**n I feel stupid allowing this to get overlooked- My discipline would have been to sell -likely on a 2 minute chart -smaller bars.
Also for not checking the positions for scheduled earnings releases- Just laziness on my part......


I did better managing the larger positions this am- by not allowing them to become losses- XLG, XMMO-
and I've got some winners that I hope survive today's weakness to become big gains as I try to hold them as swing positions.

12:43 Seeing a small potential upturn in the price- and a U hook in the RSI and stochastic forming- MACD H is close to the 0.0 line-

Uptick- fingers crossed.

So, the uptick here needs to get above the prior swing high and the psar.
If I was doing a day-trade, I'd move my stop to within $).02 of the base nominal $1,620 = $1618 stop loss

12:54- a smidge more green grinds up a tad.

12.:52- not much momentum . A note on identifying a basing consolidation- Even as seen here, there were 3 bars that almost hit the 1620 as their lows-
Sometimes Price will make a dip through the base but immediately get bought back and that often precedes a resumption of the uptrend-

12.57 Price is testing the previous highs- Critical level here $1640
If price is rejected here to find buyers willing to pay up, it likely will retest the $1620 - and unless it gets a resurgence of buyers- will see a resumption in the selling.



Really tight bars - which way?

An increase in bar size if it makes it higher here would be bullish for another leg up!it's looking possible!

1:08








Bullish wider green bar as price made a push to a higher high , followed by a gap and some bar consolidation-
I've elected to tighten up the stops , using these basing swing levels and presently the stop is below the critical prior swing high zone- nominal $1640.
A minor recovery - but it's at a point where my 2nd add to average down is now profitable- Following price higher until the buying is exhausted will potentially see further upside


a potentially critical decline in price back towards that 'breakout' prior high zone- is a critical test of whether there are any more buyers willing to step in here.
i.imgur.com/bwZgCbv.png[/img

1:31 -

1:35- Price is holding above the previous resistance level-

It's careless mistakes such as my not attending to this during the Open that has me concerned on my own capabilities to try to monitor a dozen + positions as I try to develop a diversified bullish portfolio. I'm also a chronic micro manager- There is simply no rationale to sustain a wide loss when price violates your entry decision-

This Meli chart is a good study of Price action- at this point, I've not seen a big upmove, but a bit of a slow grind higher- Price is tightening up as it comes back towards $1640- and so I'm obviously concerned that that level may fail-

One of the lessons that Devoid provides @ the LB website- Is to allow Price some room for volatility- as long as the initial entry is protected. A wider stop-loss is no guarantee of success-
However, that translates to finding swing lows or support levels- that price has broken through -


Here's some bullish buying:


@ 2 pm, we've had a recent high see price action pullback and go sideways- The 1640 level below represented the prior resistance - Price is now seeing $1650 -52 level as a new resistance-
Trying to remain patient - but it doesn't appear that I'll see a substantial rebound higher with 2 hours to go...
I'll
2.20 PM - A rED BAR FORMS AND GENERATES A PSAR sELL SIGNAL



2.24 pm Red bar breaks support level- stop close to trigger- $1633

2:30 stop triggers



Stop triggers- loss taken

After triggering my stop, Price made a brief attempt to try to go higher- So, I bought back 1 share with a tight $12 stop, but the uptick seen in the RSI and the Stochastic never had any follow thru higher.

@ THE E.O.W.

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SC's link to the various existing scans -different criteria-
you can also develop your own scans , combining some of the individual scans together .
stockcharts.com/freecharts/sample/scan-library.html?mc_cid=1fa616b70b&mc_eid=4714ee3c59

Chartschool instructional page - How to understand/and use indicators as a scan

stockcharts.com/search/?q=scans§ion=cs

The Predefined scans

stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.scan

'Make your own' scan page-
stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.scan

Scan Syntax Reference page
support.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=scans:reference

sample scan examples
support.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=scans:library:sample_scans

planning scans

support.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=scans:planning

writing scans
support.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=scans:planning

Trouble shooting Equality scans
support.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=scans:troubleshooting:equality_scans

Writing crossover scans
support.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=scans:advanced_scan_syntax:crossover_scans

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Sunday PM- Won't get to see much beyond the Open tomorrow-
LOLO has to renew her concealed carry permit and has to go to the Sheriff's office here tomorrow- To show her ID, get fingerprinted again, and submit all of the paperwork- & a $75 renewal fee- that's here in NC - So, I guess that's not too egregious since she's held that permit since 2007- and there was likely a renewal previously- Just the gov't can find ways to tax and tax again....
\

[sd]

2-26-2024
Futures flat-
O.T. Weather is weird- continues to warm up here- and yet we'll undoubtedly get that March snap back- and frost until mid April-
Worked in some of the raised garden beds this weekend, adding landscape soils- which is a mix of compost & topsoils-
$50/yard- The raised bed we added this year is 2.5' x 10' and about 30" high- but we raised the height of the inside of the bed to hold
just 12" of the soil mix- . Added some slow release organic holly tone- fertilizer- and transplanted some cilantro and lettuce plants that sprouted in recent weeks in the yard around the planters from fall seeds.
Much to do that I need to get to this year- Painting, roofing, and general maintenance-Trees to cut up,

Hot water heater for the addition, pull the pump up and install a new check valve - that's a project that I don't particularly want to get into- but, seeing air bubbles in a glass of water suggests that there's a split in the line inside the well above the water level that gets pushed up into the line when the pump engages.

Partial From Jase's weekend index report @ www.leavittbrothers.com-
"This is a stock-pickers' market. You can't close your eyes and buy anything simply because it belongs to a certain group or is part of a theme. Stocks need to be judged on their own merit. The tide is not raising or lowering all ships. This isn't good or bad - it just is.

And while this has been the backdrop, short-term volatility has been enough to shake traders out of perfectly good trades.

If you were willing to hold NVDA into earnings, you first had endure an 88-point drop in the days before. Even if the stock did well, there was a chance the it wouldn't even get back to the high.

There have been many similar scenarios. Whether you wanted to hold into earnings or just hold because you're playing the bigger picture, you had to endure some uncomfortable pullbacks before being paid. And being paid hasn't been a guarantee. Just ask the holders of PANW, ZS, MELI and BKNG.

This is how I view the current state of the market. The indexes are in fantastic shape. There's no debating that. Steady uptrends. Respecting levels and moving averages. Orderly price movement. Aside from a random day or two, the indexes have been smooth and graceful and almost completely void of stress.

But individual stocks, to a greater degree than normal, have come apart. Holding into earnings is a pure gamble. Holding beyond when a prudent stop should have triggered is not responsible trading. And while the net of taking chances has worked more often than not in the past, it definitely would not have worked recently. Yes, there have been some big winners, but there have been just as many big losers. And there are many, such as SMCI, that have initially been winners, but the gains were quickly given back.

It's a mess. Stocks lack consistency. They lack smooth, free-flowing movement. There are a lot of big gaps - much more than normal. As said above, NVDA dropped 88 bucks in three days and then gapped up and rallied 110 in one day. SMCI dropped almost 400 and then gapped up and gained 241 in one day. BKNG broke out on strong volume - it was a textbook breakout with all the items a trend trader looks for. Then it gapped down and fell almost 400 in one day. Not fun.

Safe places are only obvious after the fact. And narratives are created to explain why they were safe places, but they're all BS. They're just convenient excuses to make people feel better. Traders feel more in control if they understand something. But, unfortunately, this makes them believe they should be able to make predictions going forward. There's a line in Thinking Fast and Slow (Kahneman) that goes something like this: the ease with which we can explain the past leads us to believe we can predict the future. But we can't. Just because you explain what just happened doesn't mean you can predict what will happen. And in the market, most of the after-the-fact explanation is wrong anyways. But we do it anyway to make ourselves feel smart and in control.

Moving on...

On one hand, the market is doing great. The long side is the only side to be on. Even if there's a correction, I'd rather just step aside and let the market do some backing-and-filling while I build a list for the following rally.

On the other hand, the wheels seem to be coming off. The messy, inconsistent price movement is not attractive. We need to shoot for quick 3-5 day gains and not expect stocks to run like they have. And in the back of my mind, I wonder if there'll be a delayed "sell the news" scenario with NVDA.

This is not a time to push hard or take on too much risk. Let's get to the charts.

The Indexes"




Buy-stop with limit :small position order.
Filled at the open

HOOD- benefits from crypto trading- Preopen suggests a gap higher open-
I may set a low limit on this -again a small partial position. From the new 52 week high list.

See how that list changes at today's open.
Friday the NYSE 432, the Nasdaq 154 the new lows 45 NYSE; 97 Nasdaq- Market rotating...into other areas...


Got back mid afternoon- after a following trip to Costco and Trader Joe's.
Filled on both HOOD and DOCU

Unfortunately, I exited NVO last week- and I thought I heard it was up large today-
The new highs list from today's open is distinctly reduced from Friday's


The new high list often has stocks that initially moved higher, but also then pulled back - I haven't tracked the list close enough to determine if the stock drops back during the day- it still remains on the new high list.

buying stocks that are already uptrending and on the New Highs list- offer a very clear perspective- Some of these appear to have run too far - but until it rolls over, try to hang in there for the longer run-
I just added PCAR last week off the new highs list- among a dozen or so I added-
i.imgur.com/mJkgMKj.png[/IMG


wmt ENTRY fRIDAY - bECAUSE of THE SPLIT tODAY -

ge- KEEPS ON TICKING...


hACK ON THE SELL-OFF


TT- great infrastructure play HVAC


BOTZ- Automation and AI TECH-


Healthcare- GEHC

HOOD filled at the Open-

HWM -aerospace/defense


RACE- Ferrari motors


CRDO stopped out on today's open-
And, I'm holding several more that haven't continued to trend higher- but also haven't declined to the point where I sell them or stop out-
Overall, these above performed well today while the indexes closed down a bit.

[sd]

2.27.2024
Futures in the green after a sluggish flat day yesterday-which also seemed to lose momentum as the day wore on.
From the LB board- Bitcoin: Jase included in his nightly recap the following:and is bullish on having exposure to bitcoin stocks this year.
"IF you can stand the volatility" and with stops...


Should likely include some Bitcoin exposure through an ETF in a portfolio for diversification-

www.leavittbrothers.com -


From Yesterday's SC Scans page - after today's open, another screenshot
I'm going to modify the SC scan to exclude stocks less than $5, as well as one scan for ETFs only , and another for stocks.
I'll also use the SCTR rating to only include those with a SCTR score >80-



tHE eod- SCAN PAGE

Durable goods orders making a big low. Oddly shipments making new highs-
4.27; 4.68 10yr/2 yr inversion persists.

CAVA beat- will open higher-
Lots of pharma popping Looks like this year the momo over the weightloss drugs continues...
couple of bitcoin stocks on the top in the Nasdaq scan


Took a buy-stop in TZA filled at $19.00


sdow position taken , udow buy stop in place on a break up move.

11:30 - slow grind higher.


EOD-Busy day- a bit disappointed with the majority of my recent buys failing to push higher - but a few persevered- and I had a few good trades- HOOD went higher, pulled back and stopped out for a nice profit- and then I reentered and caught an upmove higher -and holding overnight-

sEEMS THAT THE tECH Euphoria is put on the back burner- but there's a lot of other stocks and sectors seeing dominance-
Look at today's Oddity- the Utilities were the big gainer-

[sd]

2-28-24 @ 9am Futures in the RED!

yESTERDAY:

tODAY :


@ 10 AM -


aDDED TO XMMO- A NUMBER OF POSITIONS TRIGGERED STOPS-
sTOPS RAISED TO JUST BELOW THE SWING LOW

aDDED ANOTHER 1 LOT IN HOOD as it made a 2nd shot to a new high on the day-
With a tight combined stop @ $16.08- psar essentially the trade would stop out @ B.E. as I added Hood yesterday on the upswing.


@ 11:20 -Tech under pressure - I'll be viewing the new 52 high scans for outperformers



NFLX- just added this week-
Todays drop puts the trade into the RED- Initially I added a stop at the am swing low- $588.00- and with the upmove underway, raised that stop
under the $593.00 price low consolidation. Have to view that as a potential support--


i FAILED TO MONITOR hood- iT went initially higher and solidly profitable, but rolled over and triggered my stops.
I was busy adding to some positions on those stocks making new highs in spite of today's market weakness.

Jason's Blog on Bitcoin
blog.leavittbrothers.com/?p=16243

EOD:Earnings : SNOW dops -25%, CRM drops ;-C3AI up; PSTG UP; NTNX up


EOD- Yes, this is the markets rotating! So, this encourages to focus on stocks making new highs-

[sd]

2-29 lEAP YEAR ! Perhaps that bodes well for today?


With 2.5 hrs to go -Futures in the RED-

Working in the SCAN Workbench - on SC- It helps to read through the articles on Syntax and use of [...] and (...) if you don't have a programmer's mindset in writing code- which I certainly do not- and there is a specific way to phrase -

for stock returns only include the: and [Group is not ETF]
For non-leveraged ETFs include and [group is ETFNOUI]
For ETFs reduce the volume to 5000
Add other parameters-to narrow the returns-
example- You can narrow the returns by changing the criteria by using the RSI setting.
For a wider return : and [RSI >62] Will give returns of RSI 62 AND HIGHER-
You can also use the other criteria on the scan page from the drop downs in the scan components
stockcharts.com/def/servlet/ScanUI
In the scan NYSE etfs The RSI >62 returns 36 ETFs that range in RSI . IF I increase the RSI >70 there are only 14 returns.
If I set the RSI < 70- there are 24 returns-
I also have a : and [SCTR >75] in the scan, to include more ETFs that are perhaps early in the new high momentum.

Stocks may b find better performers with a SCTR rating over 85 -99.





I quite honestly have not used the scans often- but the flexibility it offers to expand the universe to find the leading stocks in the leading sectors-
You can also drill down with scans going thru sector by sector to find the better performing stocks or etfs- and also leveraged stocks and leveraged ETFs-

Sector performance thru yesterday: Notice that technology led over the 1 week, but has dropped on the 1 month behind financials, industrials healthcare and consumer cyclicals.

PCE report came in and Futures went from Red into the Green- Apparently there is indeed a continued decline in inflation-
JOE Lavornia (sp) warns that by April we will realize the consumer is in much worse shape than anticipated - and we are heading for a harder landing.

nICE earnings pop in NTRA_ I bought on yesterdays pos priceaction- Sold 1/2 into this pop - and the present stop is for the remainder just below the lows $84.90 - to see if this can gather more upside-


OKTA SPEC ON THE BASE LOW ENTRY
Premature on the entry here, but it's aligned with the concept of the base consolidation offers a low risk entry-
Stop raised from $104 on 10 shares to $103.30 on 20 shares. Risk is $12.00.on a $ 2,098.00.position.







still basing @ 11:23- psar is getting close-UP hook on the RSI and offers a glimmer of Optimism.
i.imgur.com/r38pW0K.png
Look at how tight price bars have become! Which way will it go-?

@ 11:30- I elected to risk $ 18 and widen the stop to $104.00 - the longer this bases, at a day's low, the more potential it may have to see some buyers stop in .
sliver of green 11:38

11:45 few more green shoots- indicators improving. Price rising slightly - If I see a Price bar Close above $ 106.50 - the top of the earlier basing ,
that would allow me to consider tightening my stop.
Notice I have psar as a Buy below the present 4 bars. But, this is a sideways action- so psar as a stop level is likely worth consideration.



NTRA- NICE GAINS FROM YESTERDAY'S ENTRY-
Price pullback triggered my remaining stop -
I'm trailing a buy stop above the declining price to re enter on an upmove-
Don't want to get too close - but want to have a tight Risk on a fill.
Chart is very similar to OKTA's as well- coincidental

12:00 potential green shoot higher.

@ 12:10, price has made several higher green bars-
This gives me the confidence to tighten my entry stop from below the base lows of the consolidation, and to set it below the lows of the green bars that initially tried to move higher-


Both OKTA and NTRA active trades- Both are similar- relatively small Risk entering on a basing consolidation- In the case of NTRA- didn't enter in at the base but used a buy-stop.
Often it seems that the initial higher thrust fails and gets rejected- drops back inside the base and makes a lower low move.


@ 12:00, Okta showing a couple of red bars- not a positive for a move higher... ntra, tight price action -but a followup move higher.
@ 12:15- OKTA is in an extended sideways consolidation-


12.20 pm changed to a 1 day chart- stops raised to $104.28 -below the lows $104.37
Not impressed with the inability to move up higher-

Stop get triggered- Notice the bigger bars as price drops and profits are taken. No other buyers stepping in


Re-entry 10 $104.23 stop $103.23- If this fails, I'll pass on other OKTA trades this pm-
There is an upturn in the QQQ 's after declining all morning-



1:30 PM OKTA fails to reverse the downtrend- stops out -Gets an analyst upgrade and a new $160.00 price target- but this is strictly a day trade...


Markets mid-day:



12:50 -NTRA made a break up move higher, had a pullback, followed by another try to go higher- but barely made a slightly higher gain -
The red bar swing low came down to $85, and I've now elevated my stop to lock in a slight gain @ $84.75.

The chart showing just 1 day

1:12 pm NTRA is behaving properly- the upmove is a gradual slightly higher up move, and higher swing back- so potentially this captures some afternoon momentum-
The Nasdaq is also regaining some momentum after the am decline weakening market buying enthusiasm.


1:30 PM ntra MAKES A STEP HIGHER- WHILE okta STOPS OUT.



1:40 pm - seeing a higher high in NTRA, but then some red bars, stop is raised below the prior swing low to $85.60 -


OKTA- giving indications of w2anting to rally- Plus CNBC news mentioned the upgraded price target- so, giving it the opportunity to capture some upside ! 1:44 with a buy-stop above the psar.Also seeing a higher move on the RSI- from oversold. tight green bars @ $104.00

Buy stop filled-
Stop $103.67 -Hope the 3rd times a charm LOL!


@ THE eod MADE SEVERAL MORE TRADES in both OKTA and NTRA-
NTRA I had a sizeable gain over 2 days- didn't realize earnings were on the docket- and caught a nice upside move today- I had 30 shares- sold 5 at the open- sold 5 1 minute later for $89 .34, and sold 5 $84.57 . I was hoping this would rebound and become a big runner.
Sold the remaining bulk 14 shares when the open lows were violated, and then traded with smaller positions as it based, tried to rally .

The buy-stop Entry @ 11:50 was well placed above a lower consolidation- and I trailed stops under the progressive swing lows - got stopped out and a good reentry but I was a bar late-and didn't have a buy-stop waiting- I tightened the stop-loss and caught the stop near the peak as it rolled; the 3 am entry was technically good- as well as a similar stop-loss raised as price stalled and rolled to capture gains. The final 2 trades long, both ended up stopping out as price got more volatile at the EOD. I was anticipating a surge into the Close- that didn't develop with vigor.


OKTA was not a position held- It had big earnings beat and opened up higher on the day. Again, I thought this would potentially rebound and move higher- as Tech finally caught some upside this pm. I ended up with a net Loss in OKTA of -$23.00 after several wins and losses averaged out.
I pointed out the w-c-s- Particularly the 2:55 pm entry as being really late- I could have entered with a buy-stop order for an extra $0.50 gain- The exit was timely as Price was rolling - blue bars declining under the ema- The 3:50 pm trade could have been a net gain, but I sold it fast as the RED bar was green when I entered- but turned Red as it closed lower- That was the right thing to do, but Price gained $1 into the Close-

At the EOD, surprise- I also hold a Dell Position and it is up +18% after earnings release this pm. The rest of the positions are somewhat lack luster- RACE gave back it's gains, as did GEHC-

[sd]

One of the benefits of being a member at the LB website is exposure to different approaches to trading- and trading different products-
This trader- "BEAST' trades Futures- using a 20 second and a 1 minute chart . Sounds and looks very complicated ,but he gives his perception and how he has learned
to trade using these charts together-
He, and several other traders on the LB board have large accounts- and their trade size is HUGE compared to my 100-200 shares of stock -
While I never expect-or desire- to be able to trade Futures; studying the way other traders apply and interpret indicators to their advantage- as they also interpret the price action and the indicators relative positioning where it signals, is a glimpse into what these experienced traders do automatically-

I have very strong opinions on MA's and what price does when price approaches an MA on a higher time frame. In a bull chart, I expect the MA's to provide support for the move up.
Therefore, as price moves down to an MA, I will immediately be looking for bull hooks on the 20 second chart in the expecation that price will bounce back up off the MA or near it.
I use the same method with the RSI. When I see the RSI move into oversold or overbought in a larger time frame, I immediately start watching the smaller time frame for reversal hooks.
Finally, I don't "need" the hooks to "cross" an indicator line for me to take a trade. I believe those lines to be arbitrary as you can move oversold and overbought lines around at will with whatever values you like. Bottom LIne - The market did not put them there - WE DID! The market does not have to follow them. Also, for each of those 20 second reversals, I have marked blue boxes on the 1 minute chart on the RSI. Remember, I am ALWAYS looking for hook trades on a smaller time frame anytime the RSI gets into overbought or oversold. They make for very profitable trading on smaller time frames. And that is exactly what those are.
Understand, that if the larger time frame is bullish (Price above the MA'S...especially the 30 MA...then any move down on a smaller time frame has a high probabality of being very short term. That only changes when the larger time frame price breaks an MA. Then it's either a scalp or breakdown. Either way, I am already in it.
Which brings me to the last trade of the day. The 1 minute RSI was in overbought. I immediately look to the 20 second for a bear hook. There are actually 2 entries. The first one (at 18096.25) may not appear to be the best one as there is a better one 2 bars with bear hooks everywhere - but as I said, I don't like giving back anything at the end of the day. My entry at 18096.25 has the RSI coming out of overbought PLUS the MACD 2, 3 (my momentum indicator) crossing below the zero line with a bear hook. It may just fall or it might do some sort of retest and that's exactly what it does as the MACD 12, 26 was a bit too high (out of the Trading Zone). The second possible entry 2 bars (vertical dotted lin on the price chart) later also had the MACD 12, 26 with a bear hook - BUT it was also at a slightly lower price.
Then I end the day one of 2 ways. Whatever trade I am in as the market closes, I STAY in until (1) - I get a different colored bar which in this case was Green at 15:00:20 CST and then I exit. OR (2) I will watch the volume and if I get no reversal to exit, I will exit my futures trades no later than 7-8 minutes after the close depending if I see volume drying up. Dark Money tends to trade all the way to the futures close at 4 pm CST. I don't see the "volume" amounts there - but I am told that there is usually "plenty of volume for me to trade my "little 25 lots" - but I don't do it. OH! And I am OUT at the close if there is a HUGE market moving Earnings Report coming up right after the close.
I hope the above was what you wanted. If not, let me know. I didn't proofread this, so...LOL!
Cheers

This 1st chart is a 2 hour wide screenshot of a 1 minute chart- of the NQ -Nasdaq futures.
Notice he highlights the Price pullaway from the moving averages on the top graph with the emas shown .20,30,50.
Below the price bars are 2 different CCI's- 20,30
Followed by a MACD 2,3,1, then a RSI 12; a stochastic 18,1,1, ; and finally another MACD 12,26,1.

These are what Beast uses, and notice the Red arrows on the various indicators pointing out the potential divergence with price



The 2nd chart is a 20 second chart- -3 price bars every minute-! shows how Price actually broke down- an initial lower red bar, a couple of green bars, followed by a lower Red bar
The short position was entered and in less than 3 minutes the trade is completed-




A simpler study is Devoid's chart of TQQQ found at the www.leavittbrothers.com website
As he noted, This was his best daytrade for the week- been a tough week for daytrading...
He made 2 trades on the day-
Notice he didn't jump into the Open which was a big gap up- but he often gets into a trade at the Open few bars

His 1st entry had no stochastic or MACD confirmation- In fact-Price was crashing hard -Stochastic and MACD both in decline.
He bought just on the next bar's Open just above the Low. and likely at the exact Closing price of the Red bar- That trade initially went higher, but following the Red bar lower Close, he elevated a stop to be just below that low, and above his entry cost.-
similarly, on the last trade made Wed, he entered ahead of his defined Signal 2 line front running the signal- which occurs 3 bars- 15 minutes later .
Had he waited to enter on the actual MACD cross- he would have had a losing trade there- By 'Front running' based on the Price action, and following the prior 1st assert & pullback- he made a better entry and a small gain versus a loss. This is well worth noticing-

The 2nd entry Thursday was also well ahead of the "signal' -getting in at $59.20 after seeing Price that initially was a Red bar that turned Green as it had dropped lower, and then Closed higher- Notice how the MACD was way below the 0.0 line, but the stochastic Hook in oversold territory was occurring.
He also held the trade through several pullback periods - and while the stops likely were in place when these pullbacks had a larger Red bar lower close, he doesn't show them- The 2nd pullback lows exceed the 34 ema- which he often uses as a point of reference for price to not drop or Close below-
By holding the trade through these 2 consolidations/pullbacks, he managed to lock in a +2.4% gain.




As i have noted earlier- The 5 minute chart signal often lags- on the MACD 12-26-9- Modifying the signal - 8-12-5 as an example- would provide an earlier signal- or dropping down to a 3-2-1 minute chart- for faster signals- but also more false signals and potential whipsaws-
The 5 minute as the long chart combined with the faster charts is likely a best combination.

[sd]

3.1.2024 Futures flattish/Red with a couple of hours to go-

From the LB nightly report- a positive fact that bodes well for markets in 2024




www.investors.com/news/economy/fed-rate-cuts-federal-reserve-sp-500/?refcode=MarketPrepAM-03012024-3-DA-1:03:2024:1Q:NewsLetter:Email:MarketPrepAM-03012024:na:na:na:na:01:05:3:DA:1&j=2784178&sfmc_sub=93176118&l=222_HTML&u=39698967&mid=100016628&jb=18001


Seeing +28% overnight gain in the DELL position-! Apparently they build Servers for AI...or that's the buzz...
I'll sell 1/3 into the open-






Sold 5 with trailing $5 stop- $125.90
Sold 5 on a stop below the open $$123.55
Holding the final 5 with a wide $110.00 stop -


9:49 Dell slipping lower




Held 5 shares - with a wide stop- raised that stop @ 10:15 as price made a swing low and moved higher @ 10 am.
Initially set a higher buy-stop 120.50- but bought 10 and then 20 more inside the consolidation & the pullback red bar- stop $117.90/30 shares- 116 for 5 shares





This is setting up to either break out or to Fail-
I've added another buy-stop order to fill $120.45 on a potential up move- -
Price is looking weak ,presently back to the $119 level-


IF the break up occurs, My stop for 50 shares will be only risking $20 as I will raise it to B.E. for 30 shares-
Price is really tightening up here @ 11 05 am stop raised to $118.45 if this move fails to go higher .


Looks promising- need some follow thru and the buy-stop to fill


Stochastic is showing a move higher- Fast macd finally a cross - note the Histogram behind Price-

added a RSI

Red bars appearing

I lowered my stop back to $117.90 -Final line in the sand- I was Optomistic for the break out moving higher -but it failed to find more interested buyers
i.imgur.com/HB8gc2d.png



Call it superstition- but a stop right at the round number is a target - No guarantee if you are below it, but it's just a precaution against some of the Round number algos and traders.
4This is interesting- the RSI responding to the blue bars off that 118.00 bounce


Developing some patience since I have large % gains locked in on this- Also, it's instructive to watch closely on the fast time frame and try to calculate where price may go- Set Optimism aside- If this breaks below that $118, my stop will trigger $117.90 and I'll be done for the day.



dropped the slower MACD- and will change the chart ti 1 day view, not 2 -but a close up @ 11.43 am

Buy-stop fills- stop raised for 50 shares


SO, we get the breakout, and now the test of that support level- nominal $120.00 -
The stop loss for the Buy-stop risks $1 on the 20 shares added-
The other 30 shares will be net small gains if stopped out here.
This is a make-it or break it level for this trade-
Support for a higher move is seen in the QQQ's -making a new high today


Other positions working -
AAPL short entered again yesterday- moving up today


Smalls and midcaps- new highs-

Went to lunch anc came back to find the Dell trade working as well as other positions trending


2:47- had a swing back and now a move higher- Stops may get tightened a bit below the low of the recent swing back


3:15- a higher high HH and a pullback- stops eased up below the previous range 'breakout' level- and split stops


3:24- Pullback is close to the nominal support /resistance level- 1st stop is just below that by $0.25


3:30- Price triggers the stop- breaks thru the $123 level and rebounds higher- 25 shares stopped out.


3:45- Price approaching the $124 level


i SOLD 15 SHARES RIGHT AT THE cLOSE- and elected to keep 15 shares over the weekend-
Net gains $670 on this- *IF the 15 shares I'm holding don't drop lower from the Close...
We'll see what Monday brings-
2 large winners this week on getting lucky when they reported-
But, i was on the other side- the receiving end last week when I held and got trashed- on a earnings miss.


EOW sector performance