SD-2024 BE PROACTIVE-STOP THE W-C-S woulda-coulda-shoulda

[sd]

1.8.2024.
No time for stocks this am- Futures down- premkt -Nasdaq is slightly green.
BA airplane had a door blow out on it's recently delivered 737 air plane - They are all grounded-
Another bad on BA- .will also affect the airlines . and the DOW index.

Jan 20- Potential shutdown?

Put in 5 potential buy-stop/limit orders today from the Friday Finviz scan. Just did a quick run thru the charts premarket-
4 out of 5 orders filled with prices on those 4 moved up
I didn't realize that TRMD was a shipper.
AMGN, ZION,PAGS,CNOB

Markets Today- QQQ'
s rallied out of the gate this am , Closing up + 2%! My AAPL short stopped out- locked in some profits.

SPY rallied right from the get-go -up 1.43%

DIA dropped on the Open to a new week long low, due to BA news, but ended up +.59% .

Smalls Opened lower, put in a new low on the past Week, but then turned and rallied higher-

Sorry to have missed today's big rally , but Duty called. Thunder ceiling done- waiting to get some photos to post .....
CURE LEV HEALTHCARE POSITION IS BREAKING HIGHER- I'll add to the position tomorrow- as this breakout brings me gains- Had a gap open today and never pulled back \
.
Will set an initial limit order to add tomorrow @ $109.75- but it closed strong On huge volume. May see another gap open.

I think it's very prudent to be tactical here- meaning, short leash, short term trades.
We're still highly valued, markets are priced on the historical high side. Earnings ahead - will the markets meet expectations?
Individual stocks- again- can be a crapshoot to hold through earnings- The index is a less volatile way to get exposure- or thru the sector etfs.
Took a gamble on Energy popping due to the war in the middle east- Today Saudi came out and dropped it's price- trying to regain control of the market pricing- from both Russia and S America. My GUSH leveraged energy position stopped out at today's low open.

The Scan from last Friday looked promising- But give it a weekend- and it's a 50-50 on what is in the green today and what is losing-
Coincidentally, I ended up getting filled on 4 that ended in the green today- and 1 did not trigger the buy-stop. so 80% fill on the Buy-stop w/limit orders.
A number of those in the Red today had high SCTR scores- among some of the highest losers. 6 that dropped into the Red were in the shipping industry.


So, aside from following the 50% that were winners today- What results come from a new scan made after today's bullish action?

Here's Today's SCAN; with a few modifications- Inst ownership raised to +30% The Performance -simply Month UP vs Month +10% - added 8 stocks versus Month +10%

the modifications added 30 names- some are repeats- but a number of new names are here- I'll add a Finviz 1.8.24 chart list to monitor them -

The Scan parameters:



SORTED BY iNDUSTRY GROUPS



Let's see how these perform .....


Some in depth analysis from members on the www.leavittbrothers.com /Rat posts-
He has his own style- and sticks with it- Often nails it -in advance- Somewhat complex interpretation/correlations

[sd]

1.9.2024 Futures have flipped into the RED @ 7 am- after a big rally day yesterday- 'Waiting on the Fed to come out again bullish on a hold on Rates as one Fed bear -Barkin-did yesterday-? reports this week- CPI- Thursday? will give confirmation to the thesis.

Have to pay attention to the bears out there- Too many rate cuts are unrealistic- Earnings better come in on the high end to meet present expectations. Eventually- one day- the bears will get their chance to say "I told you so"


Some of the interesting charts found @ www.leavittbrothers.com.
From 'Rat'- with the Fib and Fork extensions-2 charts- the Friday, and the follow up Monday as price drops from the upper fork extension-



I still prefer the TA style of Devoid-Simple signal - some understanding of how/where the MACD is relative to price- and what it's indicating-
He also applies day trading on the 5 min chart- and swing trading on the 2 hr chart, with this same perspective of just a couple of indicators-
He's also very aggressive in getting the stop to above the entry cost- or to take a quick loss. These nimble traders trade both the Long and the Short sides of a position- or SOH sit on their Hands in an uncertain market.


sTOPS TRIGGERING on ZION,PAGS,NFLX,- Added to AMGN, CURE- Trailing a tight stop on CURE on the am momentum. stop is up to $111.90 ...@ 10:05 am


Cure triggers trailing stop- buy-stop above $113.02/limit pending on a continuation



Buy-stop waiting above today's high on a Trend continuation



Long CIBR- sto hook- reversal bar in play


Long both TQQQ and SOXL- stops now @ B.E.
TQQQ was a buy-stop on an upmove filled.


SOXL was a limit order inside the base- $27.89- stop is now $27.99 Price is at $28.20-


Both TQQQ and SOXL are presently gaining - Trying to find the point of balance in giving Price room to run and pullback a bit- hoping for an all-day higher up move.

CURE trade stopped out earlier this am- fairly tight stop (I actually lowered it a bit)
4Choppy price action on this CURE- 5 minute- but it appears Price is rolling over and lower late AM-


Disappointed in the weakness in the positions taken yesterday-
Gains I had yesterday evaporated today - except in AMGEN. cURE.

eNTERED A LOWER bUY-STOP TO RE ENTER CURE as a potential Swing position- but today's momentum move made me lock in the gain.

Both TQQQ and SOXL moved higher in tandem and then moved down- to trigger my stops-
A very respectable = $0.95 gain on Soxl- +3.4% -
TQQQ a smaller net gain as I re entered with some larger size on the move up out of the base, but that move pulled back and triggered the stop- for a smaller net gain - but this helped offset the sell-off on the swings this am.

Amazing how closely they mimic each other


SEC APPROVES BITCOIN ETFS THIS PM!

Amazing-5 minutes after CNBC announced Approval, SEC has NOT approved- Their X message board account was Hacked....

dAY TRADES- TQQQ,SOXL- Both with decent gains today- Made a misstep trying to get into SOXL as it rallied and then stopped out after my early sell when it rolled over- That was a very delayed -late entry, and became a quick loss- AT 3:30 I was watching the price action as it was selling off - and caught an entry off the reversal blue bar- and captured a quick + $0.20 gain as it had a rebound, going into the closing minutes, R.O.T attempt- that I trailed a very tight stop-loss higher .


The Finviz scan 1.8.24 only had 5 of 30 positions that ended the day in the Green. The 1.5.24 scan had 6 of 32 in the Green today

The 1-5 scan results on 1-9-24

the 1-8 scan positive returns today 1-9


tHE 1-9 SCAN-ONLY 14 RETURNS

[sd]

1.10.2024 Futures slightly in the RED- Waiting for the CPI report Thursday.


made some trades from the scan this am

Added back CURE, added to CIBR
Day trade SOXL
Got whipsawed-stopped out on the initial trades-
Reentry was a tad late- but now has recouped the am earlier loss .
Long TQQQ. enter after it put in a swing low @ 10 am and then moved higher.

Several of the scan entries buy-stops filled and turned tail-stopped out. Busy -will get to some charts later.

raising stops .giving price some room -stops now are above my entry

V R.O.T. in SOXL - using the pauses-consolidations as a trailing stop -below. not crowding. $27.85 - entry $27.56



@ 12:20, 3 POSITIONS HOLDING FROM THE SCAN SELECTIONS.

bOTH soxl AND tqqq - SEEING BUYING- hAND HOLDING NOW.

cibr BUY-STOP ORDER FILLED TO 2X THE POSITION STARTED YESTERDAY- Filled at the Open- hitting the limit

In the IRA- ADDING MGK, XLG on strength - MGK- is the Mega cap etf, XLG is the S&P top 50 ETF.
Jason posted a video to members that highlighted the type of historical returns as potentially bearish when the 1st 4 days of Jan are down- and to be aware in your positioning-
Holding GOOGL, AMZN- LOLO's Meta continuing to build on gains.

Buying INVA as it is breaking out higher froma 3 day sideways price range- potential swing positions


KKR entry-
i.imgur.com/1tkMbX7.png

ANET entry working higher-

INVA position taken moving higher.
S&&P makes a new high today! See if it holds into the Close.

The last entries on SOXL and TQQQ still in play... I'll try to hold these overnight with a stop @ B.E.
When I'm adding, you know it's got to be a near term top! Time to Add was Monday Am!

A lot hinges on the CPI report- Had the Fed Williams just come out this pm and 'warn'

Both TQQQ and SQQQ rolled at 3 pm and came back to trigger the stops- The way the markets had been showing strength, I had hoped these would hold into the Close.
Only have to ask if the bullish moves in the markets today ahead of the CPI tomorrow suggests bullish strength and Optimism on the report-
Could make the markets take another leg lower ....

Tonight ARK sent out an e-mail saying their ARKB- Bitcoin ETF will start trading tomorrow- along with a number of other offerings-


EOD take-away Smalls are not participating in an up move this week- Fickle market has gone back to rewarding/buying the Tech and Mega caps- Smalls are still selling at a net value compared to the rest of the markets, and also have not yet moved up from last week's sell-off.


SPY

QQQ'S

tHE mEGA CAP etf Strong performer ETF!

What about the S&P top 50 ETF?

Did a lot of look back on 1 year periods- The XLG consistently has outperformed the SPY- and Hands down- The IBD FFTY has been a long term underperformer- particularly in 2022, 23.


Last post tonight- The relative better and Out performance of the S&P 50 ETF- XLG- HAS BEEN CONSISTANT OVER THE PAST LOOK BACK OVER 7 YEARS-
tRUTH IS TOLD IN THE CHARTS- The truth is that the IBD Top 50 has been a total underperformer also is evidenced. And thus I will post this 1 year chart -
SPY is the Blue, XLG the RED, and Green the FFTY from IBD>

[sd]

1.11.2024- Waiting on the CPI report this am - Futures presently in the green @ 7:45 am.
I'll participate on the Open- but have a large tree that came down due to the heavy winds and rain storm this week. -No damage- fell on the back fence line, but somewhat suspended in another tree-Will have to attend to it later today- and potentially for a couple of days- as it's quite large-

CPI REPORT- Came in higher than the markets wanted to see- Futures rolled back into the Red- initially -from green- Does not support a rate cut soon-
Let the markets digest this info- @ 8:36- indexes trying to show some green...

OPEN


UTURN on the 3xs

Volatility? Check this out- total spike down and return -
inva-


Markets turn lower - many positions- I held off initially on stops on some- ended up in the Red and selling-
INVA- the prior chart- I came back and set a MKT stop - Which sold @ 10:13 stop lmt trigger price $36.40 sold $36.39 -
Much better than taking what would have been a $1 lower fill on a market stop on the open. To clarify- I came back after the open and set the stop-limit.
i SHOULD HAVE SET STOP-LIMITS ON ALL POSITIONS YESTERDAY - A W-C-S MOMENT today .


SEEing a Uturn in almost all positions- in the RED .
Bought CCJ as it made a lower Base this am - I'm setting the stop below the swing low @ $44.89.
@ 10:48 am


Going out to take frustrations out on the Tree- It or me...
-0

The Tree project will continue tomorrow- Workout for an older geezer like me-
I hate heights to begin with- Strapped on a safety harness and set up a safety line .2 OF THE 3 MAIN TRUNKS OF THE TREE WERE HORIZONTAL- ABOUT 10' above the ground-
Admittedly, that's not all that high, but when you're balancing on a trunk of a tree and chainsaw cutting a trunk line under pressure- it's worth having a Plan B.
2 side branches about 40' up the tree wedged into ground. holding the main trunk up - The 3rd trunk of the tree fell into another tree- lodged up much higher-
That upper branch of the tree was hung up in another taller tree, and had a lot of pressure from being wedged in higher on another tree.
I needed to make an angled cut from the bottom of the branch at a sloped angle, to allow the cut branch to drop straight down-
Made the cut too perpendicular, and the tree wedged- as did my chain saw. -Eventually got the chain saw freed up, and made several more
upcuts from the bottom side, and the tree dropped and stood up vertically on the ground- Have to be cautious because you can't see the kinetic pressure- and when released, it can be
a sharp reaction- Thus the need for a safety line and harness- in case of a Fall or kickback knocking me off the tree. Unexpected- but possible-

I'll continue cutting the remains of that upper trunk off- and the next phase will be the 2 horizontal trunks - one is also wedged on the side of a tree, while 2 branches support the other trunk.
30-40' of both trunks are suspended still- with the base of the tree and the 2 branches holding the tree suspended sideways.





Hearing tonight that the US and Britain attack Houtis in Yemen- and Iran commandeered a tanker today- other tankers are going the long route around Africa-
It seems inevitable that this can so easily escalate - and will cause the price of Energy to Rise quickly-

I see that today's entry in CCJ made some gains and offset losses in the Roth as the am rally -fizzled. Should have just put in trailing stops of $0.25 on every position- LOL!
Well- down $-200 in the IRA- Flat in the Roth- and generally disappointed- that we didn't see better follow through today-
Take no Prisinoprs- needs to be the motto here- If the stock fails to act as you expect- cut it off at the knees.

Did Donate $50.00 to a venture in crypto in 20 shares of ARKB - which sold off and stopped out- But, We participated on this 1st historical day - with a minor net loss.
i started a small position just to be "in" on opening day in ARKB- I also determined that the Max loss I would take would be -$50 on a 20 share position.
It DIDN'T TAKE LONG - Entry $9:58 Stop triggers 40 minutes later $48.40

[sd]

1-12-24 Markets in the RED @ 7 am-

The Geo-political events in the Middle East are escalating-
I have a position in the Defense 3x ETF DFEN from last week that has been slightly in the RED- ITA would be the standard-
If things snowball, the price of OIL could see a large jump - USO is shown up $2 this am. $69.75 pre mkt.
XLE is also up over +1%

Jason Leavitt- in his nightly write up posted some trading style commentary from several traders on twtr

Moving on, I saw this tweet thread on Twitter by @pradeepbonde that is worth posting here. He says what I've said, but he says it differently. I then follow it up with a comment by another trader, which hammers home the point.

The choice for traders is between magnitude moves and duration moves. Each of them is a profitable way to trade but requires different methods.

Magnitude moves are moves where a stock makes a very big move in a short period of time. The magnitude and speed of the move are critical in this kind of move.

Duration moves are when stock keeps going up for a long period of time. But speed may not be very rapid. Trend-following approaches work best for these.

Select which one you want to trade. Then you will have a lot of clarity. Traders thrive on magnitude and speed moves. By capturing hundreds of small timeframe magnitude moves traders can grow accounts rapidly.

Duration moves in individual stocks can last for years and investors who seat through those moves benefit. Duration moves are also more tax efficient.

Magnitude moves and duration moves need a different approach to finding and trading. The criteria which might lead to magnitude moves are often very short-term. Duration moves require a different scanning and identification approach. They require higher skills.

By choice, I only trade magnitude moves. My strategy is to find hundreds of magnitude moves in a year and use very close stops to make quick money.

Paul S. replies...

There are far too many styles, methods, and stocks in the market, so it's easy to get overwhelmed. Stockbee lays things out pretty clearly between two broad groups - magnitude vs duration. I trade a lot of super high ADR stocks because I'm looking for magnitude moves. This often involves trading low priced, lower liquidity "nuts stocks." This isn't for everyone.

If you don't like the thought of trading these kinds of stocks or the potential risks involved, then trade for duration moves and "higher quality" stocks with fundamentals, higher price and deeper liquidity. But just keep in mind, these moves will play out over months and quarters, not days and weeks as with duration moves.

You can't do it all. Pick one and become an expert and build a process, just like the Stockbee harps on repeatedly.

And he continues...

Another reason I've moved almost entirely to a "magnitude" stocks trading style (other than hold time and turnover) is to remove my own biases. The longer the duration of the move, the more the story and fundamentals matter over the longer term. Enough people have to believe that story long enough to justify the continued demand for weeks, months, and quarters. I personally found myself getting wrapped up in fundamentals and story to the point where I had "favorites" or I would do things I would otherwise not do because of the sunk cost of research and the "potential." Just as with a boulder sitting on a hill, potential energy doesn't mean it's moving anywhere.

This is far different than magnitude moves, which are often related to surprises and short-term news events. I honestly don't give a nuts about the fundamentals or the story. Most of what I trade would be considered "garbage" by traditional standards. In many ways, the less I know the better. Is it high ADR, high momentum, sufficient liquidity, right setup context? Check, check, check. Anything else is my injecting my biases and assumptions. The cleaner and clearer I can get on price, volume, volatility, momentum, and setup - with as few biases as I can muster - the better my outcomes tend to be. Again, just my experience trying both magnitude and duration sorts of strategies.

I like posting testimonies from traders who say the same stuff I say, in a different way. If what I say doesn't click, maybe it will hearing from someone else.

Find a trading style that works. And be disciplined to it. Don't enter what is supposed to be a quick trade (hold time less than a week) and end up being a long term holder when it goes against you. Or don't enter with intentions of playing the bigger picture and then get shaken out with some minor noise. Be disciplined to what you do best.

There are lots of ways to make money. Most ways work well. But only if you stick with what you do best and don't allow yourself to drift.

I know great traders who never hold more than a week or two. The are magnitude traders. I know others who've held TSLA for several years, through all the ups and downs. They are duration traders. But I don't know many who can do both at the same time.


tOOK A POSITION YESTERDAY IN ccj- cLOSED HIGHER-
oVERNIGHT NEWS THAT uS FORCES BOMBED hOUTHI POSITIONS INSIDE yEMEN- AND IN THE cAPITOL THERE.
Premarket [pricing - don't know if that will hold directionally -are all higher for oil,energy,uranium.

USO:

XLE:

XOP

CCJ-URANIUM-

UEC

URA-URANIUM ETF


Very Odd that the Defense ETF ITA has not made a move higher-
I have a position in DFEN -presently in the RED- Will increase that position today




long- Daytrade TQQQ--

100 SHARE ENTRY $50.65-
pARTIAL MAN ORDER- MKT sELL 1/3 @ 9:49 AM $50.87-
tHEN SET 2 tR STOPS @ $0.20 AND $0.30 -
bOTH OF THESE STOPS TRIGGERED as Price rolled @ 9:59 am $50.63, $50.73



$1 tr STOP ON THE LARGE GAP UP MOVE IN CCJ-


aDDED TO THE XLG position today S&p 50 etf- hope to hold this as a swing- but a drop below $36.90 will stop this out.
XLG's making a new High this week.

IWM- Smalls looked bullish with a higher Open this am- Rolled over hard, 9:58 am -

Tree time- warmed up this am- bad weather returns tonight- lots of Cleanup before cutting the rest of the tree....


Came in this 1:30 pm- Tree work proceeding well- Clean up the small stuff before this pm storm that will arrive- Piled up in my driveway to burn....
Still have to cut up the remainder of the tree- Will try to attach a cable from the tree's upper branch and to the hitch on my truck- and see if I can convince it to roll over..
Presently -one of the branches that has a fork has one side of the fork on one side of a cedar tree, and the other on the opposite side- it appears that the tree is suspended in the air due to a couple of branches impaled in the ground.

Gave the SOXL 3x a look this afternoon- as both the TQQQ and Soxl often trade closely- The TQQQ is managing a slightly higher move this afternoon. Small position in Soxl $27.93 with a tad wide stop under the recent base lows. Risking $0.24 on 50 - or $12.00

CCJ - gave this a $1 Trailing stop- as I was heading out for some TREE renovation work this pm. Very nice quick 10% gain over 2 days - and -all too often these pop and then roll over-
Turning a nice profit into a small profit- or even a loss- Initially I set a har stop @ $48.50 under th open low- but as it moved higher, I knew I had no idea how it may move- so the $1 TR Stop allowed me to know the minimum I would lock in, and the upside was up to the price . Keep in mind $1 on a $50 stock is a 2% decline on the trailing stop.
I am using the Trailing stop more often- and used it this am on a part of the TQQQ trade- It puts the stop on auto pilot- When is a Trailing stop at the right price- Well, it should at least get you out at Break even- at a minimum -


The SOXL add this afternoon- didn't get the big surge I was looking for - and it was a relatively small 50 share position Markets apparently closed weakly- So I tracked SOXL as we went into the Close, didn't get the momo surge- so I pulled my stop from up to $0.05 above Break Even the last 5 minutes, and will hold thru the weekend.

In this learning process- some days just seem to click - and just about that time- the market will send me a Hubris lesson.

Borrowing some from www.Leavittbrothers.com- Give it a trial - scroll back through the prior days with the go-back function- Or- Sort by an individual's past posts-
Consider Jason's Masterclass and the recent audio Intangibles- I'd recommend listening to his insights on the Intangibles- and then give the masterclass a go if you like the Intangibles course.

From The NFL_ "Pressure is something you feel when you're unsure of what you will do in a situation"- NO Pressure if you know what your game plan is- Plan the Game, and work the Plan.
Same is true in Trading.
My father was a journalist-Editor on a newspaper- and the Elements of a story - WHO, What, Where,When,How and WHY- can also carryover to the selection and decision in making a trade-
He passed on to me in his genes the DNA traits most pronounced were of verbosity and Loquaciousness. I had to look up the definitions - but i tend to go into way too much detail that i find interesting- but others do not.

From the LB Board: some perspectives and insights:



A Devoid Swing trade in SOXL- This is the trader that I most try to emulate his approach-
Sometimes, he gets a very early entry- front runs the MACD 5 min cross often- othertimes, he goes with it-
There is significance in the chart here- note that he highlights the Divergence in the Price action, and the decline in the MACD- which prompts a raised stop loss last week-
This past week, entry on the Macd cross, stops out higher .
Then Entry as the Macd makes a 'kiss but is crossing the 0.0 line He tightens the stop-
He also highlights the coincidental upturn in stochastic.
He also has generally good timing in the Day trade entries- often front runs the MACD signal- gets in at pullback lows for a very low Risk trade-
When I asked him about the front run- he suggested to just stay with the signal entry- but the fact is that the 5 min cross is often lagging to get in -in a timely fashion.
The 3 minute chart often gets that earlier signal- but - the Histogram and price bar action often coincide to suggest an entry bars earlier- granted- potentially more whipsaws- but generally tighter stops and smaller losses.

[sd]

1.13.2024
Good day overall- Sense of accomplishment- Most of the tree was cut up, some of the base sections too large and heavy for me to lift-
so I took a Z Purlin to roll the cut sections up to the top of the berm - and then a scaffold plank to roll onto the truck from the side...
The base section is about 3' wide- I made partial cuts through the trunk- then went to the End and made several plunge cuts that I could fit the metal wedge into .and that causes that piece to split- -
Pain in the backside- but It seems to be working -
The remaining Trunk section is 3'+ wide- and will require cuts and then plunge cuts from the end to allow the splitting wedges to get seated. That will be a project for next week- Delayed Xmas with 1/2 of the family due to Covid is the schedule for tomorrow...,

[sd]

Consider this trading stuff is a learning process- and potentially you can expedite that process by books, videos etc.

Jason Leavitt has both an Audio course- 74 different audio sessions on many aspects of trading that are insightful and instructional.

www.leavittbrothers.com/guidelines.cfm


He also has a Masterclass- that if you are interested in understanding and using TA- is in depth and an Investment- In you, and your trading process. He goes into depth in these video sessions- I think the course contains 18 hours of videos- and covers so much from specifics on the TA yopu use on a weekly, Daily, Hourly -Minute time frames- to understanding the importance of recognizing market rotations, finding where the money is going etc. Yes, It's an investment- watch the 2 hr mini class on Youtube- and see if that presentation appeals...

www.leavittbrothers.com/masterclass.cfm-




2 hour free Mini class link www.youtube.com/results?search_query=jason+leavitt+mini+class

[sd]

Jason sent out his weekly Video- State of the markets-

He points out that while the S&P is still back close to the recent highs- that the Breadth & participation is significantly weak- with only 30% of stocks above critical moving averages compared to 80% a few weeks ago-
This shows up as divergences in the SPY chart as one drills down through the various Advance/Decline indicators and notable lack of participation-
Jason provides a nightly market recap, and a weekend Video summary.

And- he has a sense of humor -


and




When the technicals indicate that Caution is prudent- pull in the reins, trade smaller, tighten stops.

Tom Bowley
stockcharts.com/articles/tradingplaces/2024/01/perspective-and-history-tell-u-159.html

'Hey, listen, there's nothing wrong with being bearish from time to time if you're a shorter-term trader. The stock market moves too far sometimes and rightfully needs to correct.'

'But, even during a secular bull market, the bulls must acknowledge when short-term risks grow and portfolio adjustments should be considered.'
'
Nothing on this chart looks particularly encouraging for technology. The top part of this chart tells us that technology's relative momentum was VERY stretched - similar to 2020 - and we know what happened next'
You can sign up for Bowley's Free EB Digest weekly -

www.earningsbeats.com/public/subscribe.cfm?ref=tp

[sd]

1.15.2024

TSY- video from the CES conference- take-a-way- Amazing where technology is leading us ....
www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLLzdsLTDPs

NVDA video from CES
www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ICD3lau_EE

This 3rd video from The AIgrid - covers a conversation between Bill Gates and Sam Altman (Open AI- developer of Chat GPY)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=JuYLCfb7CK8

The point Gates makes to Altman is -if the robotic adoption occurs as fast as it appears, it will affect the displacement of the Blue collar -hands on workers- as many of those jobs can be replaced by robots- potentially will be occurring within the next decade-
Further development in robotic cognition will see many white collar jobs displaced-
Ultimately- How do we find value in our daily lives if not through what we consider work-


Dan Ives- Wedbush analyst- on the Compound & Friends with Josh-- The AI Revolution
www.youtube.com/watch?v=JuYLCfb7CK8

Bitcoin- Big loser last week as the ETFs came available- "Sell the News Event/ "

[sd]

1-16-24 Premarket futures are indicating all RED- @ 8 am.

Carrying a small SOXL position over the weekend- Toss of the dice-3x long the Semi conductor ETF-
For the prior 3 days, the $29 level has been the top-
Cost basis was $27.94-
Although Volume is often considered as essential to a sustained move-High Volume on one bullish bar does not necessarily mean the following bar will be bullish-
Consistent from Jan 8 thru last week, the Closing bar was a bullish higher volume bar.
Jan 9, price opened with a gap down- from where it rebounded and made a higher high intraday.
Jan 10, Price opened slightly higher, made a lower low, and then closed @ the $28 level.



@ 9 am, futures have climbed to be slightly in the green-Semis still in the RED-
Soxl trade shown @ $27.92
No major news events over the 3 day weekend to roil the markets.


Banks/Financials started reporting last week- several seeing selling today.


URA -Uranium ETF up premkt- up 1.39%- may take a fresh entry there-

CCJ shown @ $50.19- up .5%

9:20- Futures drop deeper into the Red!

Soxl stop $27.84 not triggered on the open drop- raised to the low of bar 1 cost $27.86.
STOP TRIGGERS 9:41 Loss of $0.07


AAPD- entry $21.36- stop $21.29
moving higher @ 9:47


Put a $0.12 Trailing stop on AAPD-as it moved higher out of the am consolidation area.
Stop will trigger $21.34- Entry cost $21.36
SOXL appears to be making a R.O.T.- not in the trade-watching.


Selling DFEN for a $1`00 net loss- Price breaking below the recent lows- @ 10:20 am.
This is one of those trades where you "think" the markets should be raising concerns about the global conflicts in the world.
The recent basing action was sideways- but today's price violated the base lows and failed to bounce .

AND, SOMETIMES- YOU JUST HAVE TO TAKE A REENTRY WHEN THE TREND REVERSES BAQCK IN YOUR FAVOR.


AAPD ROLLED OVER- I bought $21.36- trailing stop filled $21.35-

AAPL had a gap down open this am , but is reversing to the upside- Went long AAPL $183.14


AAPL also has a 1.5x AAPU Bull ETF and AAPD-1.5x Bear
From the LB board- One trader's Scalp on AAPU


Unfortunately (for me) I failed to watch and jump back into SOXL-
Look at the momo that the R.O.T. snap back and go higher-
The last bar seen @11;16 is a bullish green bar- but the Histogram is well away from the 0.0 line- but is improving- Prior red bar had a long tail down, higher Close. U Hook on the stochastic -at the 80 line.


MID DAY_ lot of Red


SOXS POSITION HANGING IN THERE STOP $6.13

1:09 soxl TRYING- eNTRY



jUMPED INTO soxl OUT OF soxs


SOLD AND NETTED + $0.10 AS PRICE WEAKENED-
tHEN RE ENTERED ON THE NEXT BAR THAT MOVED UP AGAIN-
sMALL CUSHION OF +$0.10 ALSO SAW A FOLLOWING STEP MOVE HIGHER-
ALLOWS ME TO GET MY STOP TIGHTER TO WITHIN $.03 OF MY ENTRY COST $28.98- nOW $29.01



rEVERSAL- LONG soxs






sTOP HAS BEEN RAISED TO B.E.
Price has stalled at the prior 1 pm high- $6.20 -
a lower bar off the $6.20 resistance level- down to $6.16 , presently seeing another bar at the $6.20 -$6.18-

Can I see a breakout here, or a breakdown?
Getting an upmove thru that prior swing high level- . it's 2:15- and the stop is now at Break Even.


@ 2:20 pm- Soxl breaking lower, soxs breaking out higher

Price is moving up with the rising 10 ema- but I'm just adjusting the stop to $6.16- wanting to allow this some room for some slight volatility- but hoping to see this trend continue higher for the afternoon.

Price making a Close below the 10 ema- Sideways consolidation or a sign of weakness starting?









lower bar 2.34








Why not have trailed a tight stop earlier? Locked in the gain? Technically, this is trending higher- Hoping to see it resolve this consolidation to the upside for a bigger gain, but that looks doubtful.



LONG soxl- but waited for it to exceed the downtrend line-

Shouldn't have waited- should have followed the crossover signal on the MACD with a buy-stop-


OK- seeing SOXL trying- Stop raised Closer to B.E.



SOXS entry





3.35 pm slight up move -looking for a surge into the Close...My cost was $6.14 on the 1st green bar 3:20 pm


SOXS stops out for a net - $0.02 loss
SOXL position taken while holding soxs -weird- tight price action between the 2, but SOXL not getting a big push higher. 3:48 pm



At the end of the Day- UGH! Markets all in the Red, with a spot of green in the Tech. Sector-


Again, Megacaps and the Tech 100 held up better than the Sector-
Similarly- the XLG S&P 50 lost less than the S&P .
With all of the other sectors in the Red though, it's prudent to be hedging your bets here...

MSFT, NVDA making new highs...

[sd]

1.17.2024
Futures again well into the RED zone -


I'm presently holding XLG as a portfolio position- instead of exposure to the SPY-
The chart above is a 1 year Performance chart of XLG- the S&P top 50 ETF, compared to SPY, compared to The IBD top 50-

Some of the characteristics of the XLG -is leadership in the S&P 500- When uptrending -
In the past 2 months , the IBD FFTY has been outperforming - but notice how it's relative performance compared to Spy,XLG over the past 2 years.


The SPY- 2 YEAR PERFORMANCE-NEW HIGHS

tHE XLG

The IBD FFTY


So, Viewing the larger picture for perspective



9 am- Futures improving- Dow turning positive as BA lifts the stock as FAA concluding it's initial investigation of 40 planes.
But industrial production comes in.....
10 minutes to go- Futures all Red still- Gold down Silver down...
Going to be one of those days...

Long SOXS- locked in gains from the Open- holding 175 now @ 9:45- stop $6.37 under the pullback lowa





10:09 LONG TQQQ- SOXS POSITION IS SOLD- stopped out for gains .
TQQQ -got the early MACD entry -stop $48.14- entry was a buy-stop $48.30 - 100 share position size. Raising stop after the 3rd bar pullback to $48.19 lows. Stop $0.02 lower $48.17 -
Got a small step up higher.

$14 Loss- TQQQ hits stop


Re entry- but stop is too tight- TQQQ goes higher-


While the 1st trades this am in SOXL were rewarding- I got whipsawed on the TQQQ entry- I set a stop at $0.16 below my entry, and below the lows of the sideways consolidation-
Price came back and triggered my $48.14 stop-loss- i JUMPED BACK IN AS PRICE CONTINUED TO REVERSE AND GO HIGHER- BUT WAS CHASING AT THAT POINT-
$48.39 entry was high- so I selected $ $48.30 as a stop -at an arbitrary price- did not want to Risk more on top of a initial loss- Entered with more size- 150 shares- and so dbld the net loss on too tight a stop . Histogram staying rising- but stochastic lackluster momo.
Not jumping back into Soxs as it had a net +7% move off the Open- and is moving sideways...

Between the wins in SOXS and the Losses in TQQQ, I'm in the Red by $5 @ 11 am. - SOXS is presently sideways within a very tight $0.08 range.
Both MGK and XLG weakened and triggered my stops in the IRA
In SOXL on bullish up move- $27.62 in- stop triggers $27.75- net $13

Fun - slow mkt- soxs long with a $0.03 stop Soxl long with a $0.07 stop- which breaks out/ SOXL has indicator support to go higher.


Paying for amusements- SOXL makes a drop to trigger the stop and then goes higher-SOXS makes a drop to trigger the stop, and then goes higher-
back in soxs on the improving histogram and pending macd cross


@ 12:00 SOXS chart- sideways tight consolidation-looks to be ready to move a leg higher-


Ok- leg up- stop up





SOXS- ranging sideways off the earlier swing low- My stop is $0.01 -Notice how many times the $6.39 has provided support- super narrow price range-


I'd like to see a move up to the prior $8.48 level- but that's optimistic- SOXS had a bit +7% run up early off the open.
Seeing another move to $8.43 - now higher-







INCREASED POSITION SIZE TO 250 SHARES SOXS . Not anticipating a big move today- Experimenting with using very tight stops trail

SOXS stops out- long SOXL 12.53 on the MACD cross-
gOT WHIPSAWED ON THE LACK OF FOLLOW THRU - GAVE IT SOME ROOM FOR A BIGGER MOVE-


eVEN THOUGH i AM USING REALTIME CHARTS- I need to consider having an active trailing Buy-stop on those funds I am monitoring. Waiting to see the confirmation bar Close is fine-if one is focusing on a single pair of stocks- but sometimes the reversal can be quick-
I feel I did better today in concentrating on the price action between just SOXS and SOXL- for most of today.
Clearly, I need to increase SIZE in the less expensive funds to make it worthwhile.
Mid afternoon, the markets are ALL in the red and the $VIX is is up + 9% today @ $15.19-

Seems we're getting that long predicted correction- see how far it goes- pretty orderly
The XLG and MGK remaining positions in the IRA stopped out today-
Other than 1 share for tracking purposes in a variety of positions- and day trades, it's cash and CD's for the time being-

I did initiate the SOXS trade at today's Open, and added to it as it moved higher on the opening Bar - and took a partial sell to lock in the large move on the 1st bar.

[sd]

Comparative Exercise -
My Day trading borrows from the examples Devoid employs and shares with the members on the LeavittBrothers forum.
I really appreciate the detail he goes into and the explanations he often provides- As well, he is accessible when someone asks a question.
He's been applying this same method during his working career + present day - and he has settled in on using the 5 minute chart with a few moving averages, and only 2 indicators-
The MACD 12-26-9- and a Slow stochastic setting.
His Primary -Go-long- signal is when the MAcd CROSSES THE 0.0 LINE- IS THE SAME AS THE FAST LINE CROSSES THE SLOW LINE- .
The Exit signal is NOT because the MACD has a downside cross- He often stays with the trade- If it is in positive territory and above his entry- and will allow price to drift lower at times- down to the uptrending 34 ema- In more volatile times- he will set his stops higher and tighter.
Leavitt brothers offer a free trial period for those interested- and a number of other traders offering their approaches and Jason offering his experienced market commentary , nightly summation, and a number of Long and Short picks- Jason also has several courses- One Audio, and one comprehensive TA course...
Just giving Credit- where Credit is due.




In D's chart above, D entered ahead of the actual signal line on his 1st trade of the day. (That's Front Running- the indicator signal-) Similarly, Trade 2 was a bar or so ahead of the actual crossover- and trade 3 was right as the cross was about to occur. All 3 trades were profitable, with Trade 2 a NET SCRATCH + as Price quickly rolled over after the entry.
All 3 entries -noted by the Green arrows saw Price proceed higher on the next bar-- Perhaps that's the wisdom of seeing that a MAcd CROSS WAS PENDING - But with those astute entries, a stop below the low of that bar could quickly be raised to cover the cost of the entry on the very next higher closing bar.
Notice that Trade Entry 1 on the bar preceding the signal dashed line, the next bar Closed higher, followed by 4 bars that Closed Lower- Then a bullish strong Green bar higher, followed by 3 bars that open lower, and the 3rd Closing higher- Then, another Bull bar- higher, followed by 2 lower bars, and then the final move higher, followed by several sell bars - with the 3rd red bar Closing below the blue-8- ema. Price made 6 sideways bars and a push below the low of those 6, and he stoppedout there with a sell. Nice net Gain on the move of about $0.50 - but the entire move from the entry had gained +$0.90 so, the sell came as price declined -$0.40.

Trade 2 as price pulled back lower, bounced off the $48.60 level- had a MACD cross pending on the shallow MACD dip at the 0.0 line. That trade failed to gain traction- and he stopped it out as it weakened- He's pretty adamant about not allowing a winning trade to become a losing trade- That was an excellent stop, as Price dropped much further. Around 2 pm Price made a solid series of higher green bars, then a couple of red inside bars, and he entered on the impending MACD cross- Price moved up with Momentum. Notice the MACD blue line climbs above the 0.0 line .
@ 3 pm, Price drops and Closes below the fast 3 & 8 ema,and the next 5 bars end up at the 34 ema -magenta line-, where price rebounds higher. That was about a $0.35 net decline from the earlier high.
Price then rebounds and goes higher- and breaks out to a higher high- The stop is placed at that higher level - and later- not shown- was likely sold at the Close or at the swing off the high.
To be noted- On Trade 3, His entry was $48.50- Price went up to $49.20- a net + $0.70 price range- but gave back 1/2 of that gain- to allow Price to retrace to the 34 ema . That's a bet on past experience suggesting there could be more upside potentially - but it took an hour for Price to recapture the 2:40 pm high.
At the EOD, Price made a high of $49.59- and the final bar Closed $49.44- so I know he locked in a nice win .

OK- He's got decades of experience day trading on a faster time frame- I'll borrow ow everything i can from his many examples- but I also want to see if I can improve a tad- on his experience-
Like- he often front runs the 5 min MACD crossover above the 0.0 line -"The Signal" and he jumps in earlier- As I compare the different time frames- If i was to increase the speed of the MACD by using a faster combination -instead of 12-26-9 and use a 12-16-9- the MACD trigger shows up faster- Faster signals may also provide more false signals- or failures- but it gives a slightly earlier entry signal on an earlier bar- The trade-off is there may be more whipsaws- failures- so only after testing out taking earlier signals on a faster indicator- or a faster time frame 5 min--3 min...2 minute-
over the following charts- a 5 minute with a 12-16-9 as the primary signal- a tad faster than the 12-26-9
Then a 3 minute with a 12-16-9-
-
In the following charts- let's also compare how the psar coincides with a bullish green Elder buy bar- I've removed all except the 10 ema....12-16-9 MACD

The 5 Min chart - Trade 1 psar buy $48.50 Trade 2 psar Buy $48.93 Trade 3 Psar buy $48.64 n Trade 4 - Psar Buy $49.17
Consider if you had taken each psar buy stop signal- and then selected a stop on any bar that closes below the 10 ema- Trade 1 saw a $0.10 price pullback before moving higher. The stop I outlined would have triggered on the next bar that initially dropped below the Trade 2 was a potential loss -Trade 3 -Psar buy-stop and the Elder perfectly coincide.
Trade 3 would stop out on a $48.90 Close below the fast ema if not at a higher level..Trade 4 sells at the Close- or carries over to the next day.


sAME PARAMETERS- BUT A 3 MINUTE TIME FRAME



A 2 Minute chart

[sd]

1.18-2024
Premkt- DOW in the RED; S&P,NAS in the Green pre 8 am.

Will look to re-enter some positions today .
I think the market has largely given up on seeing a 1st rate cut in March, unless the economy really takes a quick decline-
Be careful what we wish for-and understand the ramifications-

Iran is the wildcard in the middle East- Worth looking at WWW.Bloomberg.com headlines to get a sense of what is occurring outside of the US...A whole world out there. Scary stuff continues .....


From the LB board-
Devoid's swing trades and note from yesterday-


Some commentary- Decades of accumulated Experience @ LB



from Jason's nightly commentary


OK- Prep for the Open.

Jobless claims came in below expectations-
AMD and AAPL both up premarket....

Buying XLG in the IRA-at the open- MGK as well-
SMH/chips, SOXL will be up at the Open. TSM beats.UP +8% premkt- AMD +3.7% SMH + 2.88%
Tech will be up at the Open. Q's + .91% TQQQ +2.62%

So, semis and Tech- often follow one another.

Not chasing the high Open.

Took a Long in TNA- played it too tight- Whipsawed for -$5 but watching it on the 2 min chart..
A buy-stop was a tad too high for a $33 fill - @ 10:15 rolling over lower. Back down to $33.00

With an hour gone by, TQQQ and SOXL in a sideways consolidation-
TNA Traded it -got a gain, a profit, and stop now at $33.18 -Cost $33.20


$33.18 stop triggers




Smalls unable to hold the Opening bullishness




Today's price action with the large gap open for SOXL,TQQQ- seems stretched- as we appear to have peaked mid day.

Smalls continue to drop lower- so it's an isolated Tech rally


Tech softening @ 1 pm...Notice the early Divergence in the MACD as Price moved higher this am.




TQQQ trade making $$$- Just after entering the trade, a local transformer blew- lost internet access-
Using the cell phone for a hotspot - adjusted the stop to lock in gains-

Added AAPL, MGK,XLG,DFEN

Smalls made a big reversal WITH the TQQQ @ 1:30- Wasn't watching at the time-

buying some 'insurance'- XLE, DFEN on what appears to be an increase in tensions in the Middle East.


It seems unlikely that the Middle East conflicts can escalate without impacting the price of Energy- and military action by the US only adds to the heightened tensions as the Houthis nationals don't seem to be backing down or intimidated.
Both the DFEN and XLE positions are downtrending- but also potentially basing and setting up for a reaction move higher...

Today's higher Price action in DFEN compared to yesterday's making a recent low - I'll have to consider a drop below the $20.00 level a sign that the downtrend is continuing and the trade doesn't have further support- I've taken a fairly sizable position in the IRA in DFEN.




rat's trade in soxl- nails it.

[sd]

1.19.2024
AT a too early 7 am, Indexes are all in the green.
I made some adds yesterday pm-as potential swing trades- including Energy XLE and Defense DFEN-
This early, DFEN is showing a gain in the premarkets, while XLE is flat.
I also bought UDOW-XLG,MGK AAPL,TSLQ,XLC -and all are in the green this early am.

As I woke up this am I thought about how well Rat played yesterday's SOXL trade-
He really nailed the entry and then held the trade all the way to the End of the Day and caught that final surge at the very last minutes of the Day.

I only caught 1/2 of that move- partly because of a late entry as I wasn't watching for the base and the possible entry- and thus got in late- and exited on the mid afternoon weakness-
The pros and cons of viewing thru a 5,3,2 minute time frame-
The fast 2 minute time frame gives 2.5 bars compared to a 5 minute chart . So, when the price action is viewed, the transition from a series of red sell bars transitions to a series of Blue bars- that eventually may transition to a higher momentum green bar(s) and a move higher- Buying on any individual higher Blue bar in a series of Red declining bars is not a go-to- strategy as that occurs all too often interspersed in a decline.

Also- the Volatility seen in the Open through the AM can be a real crap shoot if it's a sideways action and no strong trend is on display-.

The SOXL 1 day 2 Min chart without annotations.


Simplify the chart-Elder Impulse price bars, Keep only the standard Psar, 2 moving averages 8,34 emas; and- for the time being- view the MACD histogram that is on the price chart- in the Lime green-
The Histogram on this time frame is not the standard setting 12-26-9- 12-16-9


Notice when -following a series of declining Red bars and an increase in the Histogram, away from the 0.0 line, the uptick improving histogram often precedes a multi bar move that goes higher-


This becomes a higher probability trade when Price is in an uptrend.
When I include the typical MACD 12-26-9 below the chart, the crossover signals are much further apart-
As a matter of fact- compare the early signal- as the histogram then steps up to cross the 0.0 line- tHERE ARE A NUMBER OF BARS THAT ARE MOVING UP BEFORE THE ACTUAL CROSSOVER OCCURS.

wILL HAVE TO COME BACK TO THIS LATER- TIME TO GET READY- fUTURES STILL HOLDING IN THE GREEN On this Options Expiration Friday!


I just took my largest day trade loss ever this AM -I've lost a total of -$110 on several trades today taken in the TNA small cap 3x etf.
I also took a loss on DFEN of 200 shares - $65 as it Opened higher, but reversed lower- That was a surprise - but different from the watched Day trade in TNA-
While my net gains in the other positions offset these losses- it's a real Lesson that I need to be very focused on in future trades at the Open.
My expectation was that my limit order- if filled would be within a few cents of the low

As Usual, I check the premarket prices just a few minutes ahead of the Open- and everything was shown to have a higher Open- - Futures had maintained a steady positive green all morning. I was relatively confident that today would be a bullish start and decided to go with an order to Buy the Smalls TNA at a limit on the open-
A typical swing on the Opening bar-often sees the Open print at almost the low of the day- and it's off to the races-
I was surprised that the Open was much higher than the premarket pricing I used for my limit- but it filled as Price came down- FAST!

In hindsight, I should have bailed when it exceeded -$0.20 below my entry - But the bar dropped even further-
I was really taken by surprise at the magnitude of the initial drop- . I need to correctly mark up the chart with the actual net buys and sells to illustrate my lack of timing- AND MY TRADING REACTIONS WERE THAT OF A NOVICE- Truly embarassing that I made not just 1 or 2 poor trades- reacting more on the emotion of the moment- and call it revenge trading- W-C-S- entered on 2 bars later to try for that recovery- WCS- set stops immediately .... lots of W-C-s for me on this one.





It's not about having a losing trade- That comes with the territory ---but it's about the Piss-poor execution overall- and the initial large loss because I didn't set a stop immediately on the Open fill- I'm much better and more disciplined than the person trading here today.
So, taking time to annotate the chart with the trades noted- helps give me a clear perspective- I failed on not managing the entry- Jumped in early on an attempt to make a counter lower entry to0 soon- ahead of the actual signal that did come eventually a few minutes later-
Just takes the wind out of my sails for today. It doesn't matter if the other swing trades make this up today- The focus was to make $$$ on the day trade- or to control the potential loss.... and i didn't perform as I should have. Got caught up by seeing a potential larger loss- and that caused a lapse and a level of anxiety I don't normally experience when trading-


eod- mARKETS HEADING FOR A RECORD NEW HIGH cLOSE!~
SEMIS leading the charge this week!

Did Load up the IRA - ALL in with a wide mix ....
Covered my TSLA short trade for a small net gain as the trade was weakening today-
Didn't see any negative influence from the OpEx today...Wish I understood what the monthly impacts are on the markets usually- 3rd Friday of the month.
S&P new Record High Close! The XLG ETF leading the way mentioned earlier this week.





While i ended the week with net higher overall gains- I walk away with today's poor Day trade execution an Albatross -
Certainly a bitter lesson to be learned- perhaps these types of lessons - piss poor executions on my part- are a part of a larger lesson -
Get into that more over the weekend-

Execution counts-

[sd]

Watching Adam H Grimes- has a book referenced on a SMB video this am-
But went to his website- He covers on videos and adds some information on chapters from the book.
Don't know how this works out- as far as time spent viewing...
adamhgrimes.com/the-hudson-sessions/

apparently, these are very long videos click on Session 1 -The traders edge- Replay- 3 + hours..
Might be a good & necessary complement to his recent book


Holy Grail

1hr:17 min.

The mindset of the professional trader- Give me enough time, and I'll end up taking your money.
social media hype, Meme stocks, 'Bubbles'

@ 1:25- Evolution, reassess- The Danger in being Successful is ....



Al Brooks- a tedious read- but in depth.




2 hr





2HR 10 MIN rEVERSALS - STUDY THE WICKS -

gETTING INTO THE WEEDS ON PRICE BARS with a offset slight shift in the timing at the moment-
Why Not drill down into the faster time frames for a more precise view -
For example- there are 5 ea 1 minute bars all contained within the span of 1 5 minute bar.




"One of the keys is learning to Fail Well."



www.marketlife.com/
Limited Free subscription-
$7 2 week Trial $147/month www.marketlife.com/promo/subscriptions


BUT,TAKE HIS FREE COURSES BEFORE EVER PAYING FOR ANYTHING-


FREE access- Consider the Free stuff 54 videos -


wATCHED THROUGH HIS free mODULE 1- FROM THE INTRODUCTION TO THE #6 hOMEWORK-
hEY, GOOD FOR AN INTRODUCTION- BUT ALSO BRINGS A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE-
tHE hOMEWORK EXERCISES ARE CHALLENGING YOU TO DO SOME WORK.





mODULE 2 -fREE-


sO- COMPLETING THE Module 2- and he gets into the weeds on the chapters on Random Walks- So, he's teaching a lot on market theory- and arguing versus the thinking that ultimately investing is a random exercise and futile to try to outperform the indexes etc. This may be a bit heavy on the academic side...gets into probabilities- and stuff that those with an interest in the statistical will enjoy- others will find it incomprehensible to what it has to do with their attempt to be a better trader...

He stresses that the only way to make money is to have an Edge...
Illustrates too many examples of a net 0.0 expectancy- random ...



Trailing stop

Baseline drift- Just making = to what the nominal averaged return is...through indexing...

The entire point- that he feels is essential - is to identify a pattern to develop an edge within the pattern.


Note- at the End of each Chapter (Module) there is a link to Print out worksheets regarding the information covered.
Chapter 4 -He stresses that one should not skip the prior chapter- as too statistical-too academic-


he gets into what most of us are interested in in Module 4 - if we have some trading experience ..
i.imgur.com/hNfqPLg.png

Expectancy of your system :Module 4


Chapter 4- Quantitative techniques- spends an extreme amount of time doing statistical analysis that 'proves' that the popular Fibonacci advocates don't meet the market criteria- No actual Evidence for much of the Fib proponents thinking that the markets move around primary Fib sequence levels-
The depth he goes into proving- his rigor in the analysis disputing Fib ratios as significant- his commendable- but at this point- he's taking the viewer down a road that I was never interested in to begin with- Sounds like he has a personal vendetta with those quacks selling Fibonacci as a structural component-
He thinks that retracements often surround the 50% decline...
His academic experience shines here- but loses my interest.

As I'm watching Saturday pm football and also these modules- at the same time- I'd rate the material covered so far is quite long on the academic side- and covers some basic charting that everyone should be aware of- This is only through Module 4 - and understanding many of these back structures in trading qualitative analysis are important-
At this point- I'll be finishing Module 4 - this is not a go-to- course for the typical trader that wants to get some basics down- Extremely focused for the trader that enjoys the intricacies of the analytic process- so far- He really reaches out more to the established trader that needs some grounding - guidance- and how to get more in depth focused.
That's all I can do this SAT pm -
Final chapter is manual backtesting