SD'S -2023 DON'T JUST SIT THERE TO SURVIVE- MOVE&PROSPER!

[sd]

Monday 3-13-2023--S&P, DOW again in the RED- Nas was in the green, but weakening-
"Fed Regulators shoring up BAnks" plural.
This sell-off may be a great opportunity to buy some of the better financials in a long term portfolio-

look at this drop in Schwab shares! and is also being bid -7% lower premarket.
Small regional banks getting hit hard! some- like First Republic down -65%

Gold is up this am- so my overly large position will be able to be net profitable today with stops giving this some room- as it appears that the bank industry is vulnerable to a further sell-off

Doctor's appointment @ 9:40 so I'll miss the lower open and no active trades aside from GLD.

Got home, My SCHW order to buy 50 on a low limit filled and I saw it was down -$150.00- I bought 100 SCHW as it bounced and sold partial shares on the move higher, trailed tight stops on split stops- Net gains $380.00
Similarly, raised my stops on the GLD position- If markets feel reassured today, the GLD will sell-off.
Bought XLF with some size- 250 shares with a tight stop lost -$68 on that position.
Took 1 follow up entry in Schwab that stopped outfor a smaller loss

took long positions MGK, RSP,RYT- Markets are now thinking the Fed rate hike they anticipated will be off the table .

Split the GLD position with 3 stops $176.95- which filled, still holding 2 stops $176.90; $176.85

Closing out the day with holding 2/3 of the GLD position - 1/3 stops were hit- Tried a few other trades- but they folded quickly-
Nice gains in the SCHW trade- and traded it a few quick times later -
GLD position showing a net +$377 Schw + $413.75 - but lost $130 on RYT,RSP, SDOW -16, xlf- 58- Net still a +$520.00 trading day- across both accounts.

bEFORE HEADING OUT TO THE dOCTOR APPT THIS AM, i PUT IN A SMALL LIMIT $53 FOR SCHW Based on the premarket bid/ask-
When I got back from the Doctor's office- the Trade had filled and I was down large on 50 shares without a stop-

I decided I would try to average down and bought 100 shares @ $50.485 @ 11:03 am. AVERAGING DOWN CAN BE A DANGEROUS APPROACH- But I was willing to get stopped out if my 100 share Add started to add to the losses.

sO, i GOT LUCKY WITH THE AVERAGING DOWN- Price had made a bottom and had turned higher when I entered- The bulk of the gains were made off that 1st R.O.T upmove.
The later trades in the day had 1 loss, and some very minor gains-and a couple of quick sells when price started higher, I entered and it weakened- I literally raised my stop almost immediately to breakeven or hit the sell button- There was also a pretty wide spread on the Bid-Ask - and I was not able to get a fill on a lower level swing. I was also having issues with Stockcharts today not keeping up with it's faster time frame charts.
This trade went from deep in the red because I did not have a stop-loss and wasn't monitoring the initial entry- and lucky to get a turn higher that allowed me to negate the loss and capture a significant 1 day gain.



Gld trade entered Friday was a huge mistake- I made a typo on the order, purchased 100 shares instead of a modest 10 shares.
Today, that position had a gap move higher- I had issues with stockcharts, and could not use any fast time frame charts- so I looked at the Bid-Ask- and divided the position into 1/3 stops set just below the round number and $0.05 apart- The tight stop filled, but the other 2 did not

[sd]

3-14-2023 Pre the CPI report- Futures are strongly in the green....
Financials are up premarket as the FED put in a guarantee to the markets that investors monies would be made whole- This apparently seems to also extend to the uninsured accounts in SVB and SBNY- The investors in the banks will lose all of their investments with the stocks now worthless.
I see SCHW is up over $5 premarket- I may revisit that today as a trade as well as the Financial ETF-
I don't know where this all will shakeout -but many banks are in a similar over extended on a credit basis with older bonds they hold now underwater due to the rapid rate increases put in place by the Fed since 2022....

Powell just outlined in a 2 day testimony to congress his "Plan" that is 'data dependent ' to control inflation- It seems that we were headed for at least a 25 pt rate hike, and now the markets are thinking that may be put on hold for the time being- with the Fed needing to take on a wait and see approach-
Today's CPI report will be a critical data point that the market's will interpret - A CPI that shows that inflation is slowing, employment slowing, the markets will see that as the FED likely going to no rate hike- and will be a reason to rally.


CPI came in with most categories just meeting expectations - Inflation seems to persist- lingering on-
Bank stocks up large today ! Savvy buyers that bought yesterday- and Held- are seeing large gains today!

Busy Day today- I had confidence that the recovery in Banks would see a massive rebound higher- and early on jumped into the KRE and SCHW- and found myself deeply in the Red- I bought the open and was in a hurry to do so- Had i waited for the 1st 5 minutes to pass to see the trend direction as it developed, I would have saved myself a lot of $$$$
The KRE became a total Loser - While I managed to salvage SCHW but had over $22k in that single position at one point-
I had profits from SCHW Trades made Monday, and I had visions of the same momentum to push price back up-
But the entire industry opened with a gap high, and then that was the Top for many positions out there-

FOMO- I was overly confident that we would see a massive recovery move- and just bought with the belief that today would see much more upside- Little did I know that the upside momentum disappeared in the 1st 5 minutes of trading!
This is a serious lesson to be learned! I also was overly confident and slow to think I needed to set stops-
So being overly confident - and in a hurry to execute what I thought would be an easy win and large gain- FOMO
and I was wrong!~
At one point I was down over $500 in my SCHW trade- stopped out, made several reentry trades- and hopefully I've come away with more experience in managing a trade- the importance of setting stops quickly, and also how to work myself out from a loss and to manage to leave the Field at the end of the day with a WIN! Albeit a small one considering I -at one point- held stock worth over $22k as I tried to work my position out of a negative loss by taking shorter term trades.
That this actually did work out offers me some credits on using the TA to my advantage- although I had some losses in the process as well.

Too Late today to do the proper trade post mortem- but this was an exceptional series of trades .
Heres the chart of SCHW:

[sd]

3-15-2023
Markets deep in the red before the open


Going Short- SKF,TZA,sqqq


long GLD,GDX

Whipsaw sloppy open- Took a long position in TZA, which stopped out- Rationale is that small caps will suffer as banks and funding dry up or are too hgih
TNA looked like it was breaking out- Took an entry and 3 minutes later Price fell back into the range - Lost about $14.00 on 50 share position.
I've reduced my position size - but do have a buy-stop tor TZA at $36.02 -above today's highs.
@ 10:30, a sideways range in place- targeting a breakout or a low limit fill at the lows of the range

Busy day today- I tried TZA- shorting small caps, but it went sideways for an hour and a half until it declined and then rallied.
Then I flipped to view TQQQ and SQQQ and tried to make some quick trades- and mostly got chopped up. I think I tried too many trades- and using the buy-stop entry proved to be proned to whipsaws in what was a very choppy market.

[sd]

3.16.2023 Markets went bullish over the ECB 50 pt hike, and financials higher today-
Made a lot of trades this am, but getting whipsawed on slow momentum in the pm.

Made better headway in the pm- added size - and would sell partial positions into the upmoves-
Still very much a learning process and adapting to the market momentum-
Made some gains in FAS,TQQQ,soxl- typically holding 2 positions at a time with stops set immediately on each entry-
My biggest loser was META as it dropped $4 on my entry today, and then it rallied back this pm. LOst $40.00 there.
Lost $15 on Snap-
I took a shot at SOFI with 500 shares- Lost $15 there
SOXL was a net + gaining $69.00, TQQQ net + 51, FAS + 28 -
So , ended up on the plus side +$55.00- could buy dinner at McDonalds LOL!

This part of the learning curve in the fast time frame is to take small losses early on- so Meta wasn't a part of that agenda in taking Daytrades, but I dumped my shares as the trade went South- belatedly.

I did buy the XLF- as an investment in the IRA- holding it along with SCHW ....As "news" comes out as to how the Fed reserve supports banks and puts on a positive posture

[sd]

As I go back over todays trades...
and compare to one of the members @ the Leavitt bros site- Devoid- He's responsive, and in large part an inspiration to trade on this fast time frame

He also traded TQQQ today and caught the entire Move today- Here's his chart- He held through those several price bars that pulled back and almost hit the 34 ema..
He captured the entire Day's move in 1 trade- that didn't start at the open.





Comparing my numerous trades- with relatively small net gains in TQQQ, FAS,SOXL-
Devoid responded to my query- He uses the 5 min 34 ema as a guide for a stop-loss.
The key to being profitable is where you take an entry, and how the price action evolves- in your favor- or against-
Reviewing his chart, his entry was on the 20 minute bar near the low 34 ema- One thing I have tried to do - with some success- is to get that tighter entry with a narrow loss to the P.O.F. He also had an upside cross of the 12-26-9 MACD as the trigger to enter the trade-
When the opening is volatile- with a gap- the gap pushes the MACD line to a high at the open, which then skews the next bars-

If I can enter with some size initially instead of tepidly placing a small entry in the water, potentially I will be better at capturing a larger % of the move.
Notice the MACD held sideways until the 10 am + hour when a true trend with directional momentum actually evolved- The MACd fast line crossed the slow line as the momentum faded near 12:00. D held through that consolidation- with a stop below -perhaps at the 34 ema, and caught the afternoon move higher -Sold at the Close for a +9% gain on the trade!- 1 Buy, 1 Sell- easy peasey -No?

[sd]

3-17-2023
Futures @ 6am are in the green -

Janet Yellen tells Congress that not all banks that get into trouble will see deposits that exceed $250k get reimbursed- Only those banks that present "systemic Risk"-meaning small regional banks will likely see large depositors shifting their accounts to not hold more than the $250k that will be insured in any one account-

www.cnbc.com/2023/03/16/svb-signature-bank-failures-yellen-says-us-banking-system-is-stable-and-deposits-remain-safe.html


SVB bank made those lenders it gave loans to, keep all or the majority of their assets in their SVB account- This 'exclusivity' arrangement prohibited a company from spreading out their assets to other institutions, leaving many companies well in excess of the 250k insured level- There is a banking arrangement with some banks that will share their investors large accounts with other banks- thus providing insured coverage to the whole of the client's account-
There will certainly be a scramble for business and affluent persons to diversify their holdings to ensure coverage-

3 banks- SVB, Signature Bank, Silvergate bank in the last week- and now FRC Republic bank gets billions to shore up it's deposit base from other banks.
Fed reserve is opening it's discount loan window...
A lot of the issues with some banks is that their "normal" protection had the banks purchase the available low return treasuries in the 2020,2021 etc, and the recent large Rise in rates last year pushed these prior purchases to not be able to be sold at the purchase value on the open market- so they had to be liquidated to cover withdrawals at a large loss.

The present effect is that the Fed is at Risk of losing credibility if it does not give a 25 pt hike upcoming at the next meeting- or will it Pause as many have suggested it should do to allow time for the unprecedented high increase in rates to work through the economy-

I perhaps made a mistake this week- I bought SCHW and the XLF and hold them in the IRA- However, that's a fairly sizable Risk despite the big sell-off-
Potentially, I anticipate that SCHW - has both bank and brokerage services-and many retirement accounts- will qualify as a major institution..
I decided to Buy the XLF with some size- as trading in the leveraged SKF is choppy and gappy. Should my Buys in these 2 breakdown, I will be a seller and take the loss.

The banking sector is going to be at a disadvantage as long as we have the 2/10 yield curve inverted.
Many persons are able to go outside of conventional banks to get a higher CD rate that is guaranteed and "Safe" from 4.5-5.25%

Recent sector performance- Tech and comm services are showing strength this past week, while Energy continues to be a laggard-
OIL is priced low, and Energy may be at an oversold level- had a positive move yesterday...




Trading multiple positions on the fast time frame keeps me busy during much of the day- Taking my focus away to annotate charts and post intraday may miss a move up or down- that I would want to respond to-

I'm going to use both the 5 min chart and the 2 min chart-but I'll try to focus primarily on the 5- Also, Momentum generally appears in the am- and market direction -seems to be
settled out by 10 am- so potentially a lot of chop and whipsaw at the open-
My focus will be to favor an existing uptrend- if the futures also seem to confirm-

The semis -are one of the strongest segments in Tech- along with large cap tech -
Futures at 8:45 have all shifted into the RED-
Regional banks- KRE are all down large- Money center-large banks have held up decently. Xlf is comprised of large cap banks and financial institutions- should be less volatile than the smaller regional banks.
www.etf.com/XLF

I bought yesterday- XLF,SCHW- Oversold reaction & buying opportunity- or just the beginning of a greater decline?





TQQQ long @ 10 am- wider stop in place below the prior day's base
Added 2x Schw, Added XLF at lower cost- Expectation is that the low of the week will not be exceeded in either position.

Now I'm officially an "investor" in SCHW, XLF- w/12k in each -
My thinking is these are both oversold- but I was surprised to see SCHW come down to the low limit and exceed it!

I bought 25 $56.22; 50 $56.32 as it tried to pause and reverse higher- which failed, and then added 50 $54.78-
My net average cost for 226 shares is $56.53- and I'm presently seeing a loss of $425/$12,776 or -3.3%

Similarly XLF- I looked at this week's sell-off lows, $30.90- and the price paused it's decline @ $30.93- so a potential area for price to base-
In a dangerous approach, I tried to average down at this level by buying 150 shares @ $30.98- but then put a stop to sell 350 @ $30.85. That's risking $0.13 expecting this level represents a "value" - and, as I write this @ 11:17, price has put in a 1st higher green bar @ $31.05.
My average cost is now $31.68- for the entire 550 shares. I had also bought on the way down at higher levels -$31.10.
The broad market indexes are still in the RED, and the financials are the leading cause of the market's weakness overall. Presently, my XLF position is down -$340.00 and SCHW - $$465.-

Averaging down in a decline is a dangerous concept- so, with $30k in investments between the 2 positions, I need to take a loss on a break down below this weeks lows- because that would indicate the market has evaluated and believes the sector is in greater jeopardy, and is not a reasonable Risk- even at these reduced prices.
Discouraging way to end the Week! And we have Options Expiration today as well- so some sell pressure is from there-



Earlier in the week I was down large in SCHW, and by watching price action on the faster time frameas, was able to turn a large loss into a gain for the day- That approach was to by a reversal move with a tight stop-loss- and then raise that stop progressively-
Similarly today, I am again trying that approach- particularly with the XLF-
Moved the stop-loss to $30.65 vs $30.85 - hate to do that , but the indications are a base is being put in - and would hate to get stopped out on a too tight stop- Will watch this closely today and perhaps sell if the stops don't fill

2 pm- SCHW has made back a lot of ground- and the purchases to lower my cost basis of 226 shares is $56.53- I've raised my stop-loss to sell 175 on a market pullback in price, and to reduce my position size to just 51 shares.
The XLF has not made a U turn- something resembling an L shape near the lows.


Stop executed $55.86 @ 14:22; My remaining position is 51 shares - I calculate that cost of 50 $58.33- Schwab is now showing a cost/share incorrectly as $54.81

I don't think the Schwab calculator is correct- as it is now showing a net profit of $57.62- still 1.5 hrs left to see the remainder see a move higher...

It is showing a loss of -$75.99 on the day, but an overall gain of +$57.62- cost $54.81 - If so, I'll set a stop just above that-$54.90 and hold the net profitable position as a Long position-

That stop executed- and, overall I'm very pleased to have managed to trade my way out of a $465.00 loss to see a net gain of about $50 and significantly reduced my net cost of entry- I've also lowered my exposure to just 51 shares, with a new remaining stop-loss above my cost of entry-
Not seeing much improvement in the financials -XLF though-It's testing the afternoon lows, and if we can't see a rally by the EOD, I may have to bite the bullet and sell the majority of the position because I don'
t dare hold 551 shares over the weekend- I would hope some institutional buyers would step into the large cap banks as we go towards the close- scooping up this "value". I'm seeing a positive slope upwards -potentially . my loss on the entire position is presently -$387.00 551 @ $31.68 cost basis

My stops on the entire position is 200 $$30.85, 350 $30.86 - Price presently is right at that earlier low $30.91-

The bid/1ask has a lot of Bidders vs sellers as it hit that low level- now back above $31.

With stops in place- Buyers may jump in this last 1 hour- or in the last 5 minutes of the day-
It's interesting that today's low -Has been hit 2x and within $0.01 2 other times -



While I'm patiently waiting for the Day to come to a close, the lesson here is to be prepared to take that 1st loss right when the trade goes against your expectations- Often the market will open with a wide gapdown at the open, but thyen turn immediately back higher after the 1st 2-5 minutes. By 10 am the day's trend direction may be seen- In the chart of XLF, we can see a pause in the selling about 15 minutes in - with 5 sideways bars an an attempt to try to go higher-
That was the opportunity to Sell part or all- or to put a tight stop under that consolidation.

@ 3:25 SEEING SOME PRICE CONSOLIDATION at the $31.00 level - with a small push higher- Sometimes, market makers and institutions will push price down to capture tight stops just ahead of a larger up move- My averaged cost is $31.68 and at a present price of $31.05 my net loss would be $343.00 if i sold now-
Just got a step up higher- see if it recaptures $31.10.
The SCHW now is profitable by $116.53 on 51 shares...Nice turn higher there-






This waiting for an upmove to sell into is a lot like fishing=- I have no illusions about XLF recovering into a profitable zone-like SCHW has done- I may keep a portion of the position open- Sell 400 into today's Close- hold 150 to see if the weekend will calm the financials.
EOD- I sold 350 @ the Close - did not get the rally in the last minutes- that I was hoping for- Loss of -$296.00
I sold SCHW as it had moved higher, but then rolled over- I exited the trade @ $56.53 for a net gain. Holding just 1 share...

Combined trades this week netted $523 in gains in Schw,, lost $200 in KRE this week, and XLF a small gain of $53.00. I don't know how the accounting I'm viewing in TD is accomplished- Potentially, I would have thought the XLF trades were at a net loss- unless I owned and traded this previously with net gains ....

[sd]

GEO explaining how he uses 1 aspect of a Fib anchor point at the 50% to set the anchor point on the andrews pitchfork- There are obious variations that I have seen drawn- but the Fib levels and such that he uses are interesting



Several variations -my versions of GLD





Will have to update this week's underperformance later- Better weather, plants to uncover, seeds to get started- -Sunday anticipated to be cold, a good day to stay indoors.

[sd]

3-20 -23 End of last Week- IRA $195,011 Roth $81,620.00

Talk about a bad week ! Some frantic trading - took my losses in the IRA in Energy, China.
Got the SCGHW trade wrong (early) but managed to claw back and make gains - I had bought initially on the upmove that failed the very next day-
Banks- particularly regionals are under pressure- and that theme likely continues this week- so looking to be short -

Presently I did take a shot at the XLF- large cap Banks- stop @ a few pts below the Close Friday-
This am- the major banks are showing small gains- JPM,BAC,MS, - and they are seeing inflows of cash from regional banks seeing their deposits shift to the large banks.

Futures are now in the green-slightly


Power outage this am! Squirrel decided to take a shortcut across the transformer that served the neighbor's house- KA-BOOM! We lost power as it tripped the breaker on the line-
When power came back on. we had lost our internet connection - Several hours spent with Spectrum trying to reset the modem - eventually worked- then failed- then worked again- but they "read" the modem signals and say there is some potential issue with the service line....So, a tech is coming tomorrow-
Presently I have gotten lucky- had stops in place as the XLF position declined today- Out at B.E.
Got stopped out in GLD, Still holding a positin in GDX, and presently TZA with a stop within $0.03 of my entry cost. (Daytrade)

TZA is working, so I'll adjust my stop higher with each 5 minute bar- Now above my entry cost by $0.02 for a likely B.E.

TZA hit my raised Break Even stop- Small caps trying to make a U turen higher- Long TNA on this possible reversal of Trend- Stop is within $0.09
on an early upturn in the Histogram, Stoch, and ADX +DI

Done for the day- bored with the sideways conditions- Going outside to build a support for the Hardy Kiwis...

[sd]

3-21-2023

FRUSTRATING DAY ! OUR INTERNET WENT COMPLETELY OUT YESTERDAY , AND THE REPAIR CREW SHOWED UP LATE AM TODAY. Luckily, they found that the incoming cable had issues, changed it out and also installed a new modem -
Got service back on this afternoon and seeing the market is up ahead of the Fed speak tomorrow, Did a bunch of buying-

[sd]

3.22.23 Show time- Fed day-

DRV- Real Estate Short- 3x - If the regional banks remain in question, rates going higher- mortgage rates are high-
This thing is gappy, low volume, large spread - I'm treating this as a momentum day trade- It has moved higher- so my stop is just below my entry cost. $56.86- raising the stop $56.94-
DRV has very low volume, thus relatively wide spreads $0.09 - Going to allow this to stop out with a raised stop $56.98
Stop just filled- My activation price filled $56.81 ! Big spread to the downside- Gap -$0.17 Stopped out with a $0.17 drop from my activation price- Lost $0.03 on the trade- x 50 shares = -$1.50

So, just too little volume = wide bid-ask . This traded 134k by 10:32 -SOXL has 9.5 Million
SOXL-3x Trend is up off the open- Cost is $17.12- 3 min bar has moved higher- Stop is really tight $17.08 - it's below the round number $17.10- and just below the lows of the bullish price bars - -Should have bought at the open by planning ahead - but getting an upmove ....but indexes are all slightly in the Red. Rolling over @ 10:13

Didn't go in with any substantial size in the 2 day trades- reduced the position size- markets waiting on the Fed's decision and outlook- PSAR stop $$17.09 saw price come back to the Round number -$17.10. Amazing how often we see this sideways consolidation occurring at the round number for the majority of the bars...Indicators are suggesting this weakness - below the fast ema. but it's trying to move higher- Will have to see if it can exceed the overhead psar $17.32





At this point, the 34 EMA is $17.04- so I'll relax the stop to that trailing level- Devoid uses that ema on the 5 min time frame. I'm using the 3 min time frame, so the 34 ema is closer than on the 5 min.
Stop hit 10:55


Initial boost on Powell's 25 pt raTE Hike- as expected- however, some weakness immediately followed - I had raised stops on my positions- most were taken out



Took a few trades in TZA- originally saw a loss of -$18, got that back down to - $3.16 -
Lots of volatility- from the initial bullish reaction that lost steam quickly, and the indexes

I got whipsawed on my stop in TZA- should have reentered- look at the momentum higher into the Close!

[sd]

3.23.23
Yesterday's whipsawing market - Rising on Powell's remarks but then diving lower because Yellen told congress that all banks are not backstopped for accounts over $250k.
This puts smaller regional banks in continued distress as depositors will react by transferring funds out and going to other banks that can guarantee the deposits.
I raised stops yesterday to lock in gains as the market started to pull back from it's initial surge-
No idea how this works out over the long run, but the impact on regional banks remains a major concern for the economy and particularly small business concerns-
Rates are going higher, and loans will be at higher rates, and will also be more restrictive because banks have to lower their Risk exposure to defaults and bankruptcies.

BaNK FIASCO WITH MIXEWD MESSAGING CONTINUES BETWEEN yELLEN AND pOWELL DELIVERING DIFFERENT but hedging- remarks saying banks are sound and will be supported-
However , Not all deposits that exceed 250K will be reimbursed -only if that specific bank poses a systemic Risk as evaluated on a case by case basis ....




Today I started off well with the markets in a positive move, but that all weakened in the pm- Ended up in the Red on the day as I proceeded to set stops and then headed outside for the afternoon- GLD and GDX positions only remained by the end of the day- -

Overall, markets are trying to price in a Fed that likely will have to cut by this Fall- The bond market -according to those that can interpret, is still saying recession

with the inverted yield curve persisting- The banking sector is under a lot of pressure and selling off- particularly the regional banks.
Core inflation is coming down, energy prices are low, and the housing market /builders are seeing less demand- People hthat financed with adjustable rate mortgages are getting taken to the cleaners with the rates increasing, and large cap tech is still the market's go-to.

Other than holding a lot in CD's-I'm not succeeding when I try to think I'll hold a swing position - getting whipsawed-because I'm expecting a position to work in my favor and not make a U turn in the afternoon as the markets seemed to do. Set what I thought were reasonable stops- only to see the trend turn around and bite them and so I may focus for a few hours on some intraday trades, but , as the weather is getting spring like here- head out in the pm for many of the projects that are needing to be done-
Received an order of Kiwis from Edible Landscaping , shipped from Afton VA, and the plants arrived with freeze damage on many of the leaves- Will keep indoors and provide some care under grow lights and regular misting to see if they can recover- The response to my e-mail and phone message was a call back from them saying give it a month and then let us know if they don't come back.....large Dump Load of ABC stone for the driveway arrived yesterday- Garden areas/containers almost ready to plant,
Punch list on the house remains with a number of items, and the boat needs to get in the water - ......
U-Turn from positive trending to bearish selling!

[sd]

3-24-23

Yesterday watched a lot of the congress tear into the TicTok Ceo with some very tough questioning- So Meta and Snap should benefit greatly if TicTok gets banned-

Markets thought the same initially in the AM, but thgen the reality of the economy and now - following the issues with the Swedish bank- CS, the main German bank - Deuche is in trouble as well- So the financial global markets are under pressure as well- This policy of rapid rate increases by the FED is the most aggressive series of Rate hikes- and has left banks carrying bonds bought in the prior years- pre 2022 now sitting underwater with losses from the very low rates available at that time- Ultimately, the Fed's Free money- cycle in recent years has come home to roost as the cause of the inflation along with a pandemic, supply shortages, and economic largess by the gov't ....
When we get out of this, it will likely be a much slower economy, with the result that unemployment will rise to a high level, inflation eventually drops as people restrict their buying- Credit rates rising, and people will get overextended by using credit cards to maintain a lifestyle that they cannot pay for. Many will become indentured servants to the credit card companies- Lawyers adds will show up on TV as they did some years ago touting the advantage of bankruptcies to get that "fresh start".
War in Ukraine continues and China and the US relations are strained with Taiwan a potential take-over target by the CCP. We're in a technological rat race with China and
they are likely more our adversary than an economic trading partner-

Futures are in the RED this Friday!



The Small caps , small business, will particularly be adversely affected by higher rates, tightened lending standards by the banks
My trade focus today will be to the short side- both financials and small caps

European banks are also tanking today , as well as US big banks dropping 2% overnight.
S&P $3948

Small caps have seen a large decline and choppy price action- and are in a confirmed downtrend .
Yesterday's price action had opened higher, but then broke the recent low level, to Close @ $170.25
Here's the chart of IWM:



TZA is the 3x Bear -Premarket bid/ask is at a breakout level
Daily chart:


30 minute chart- sideways range -





Financial Inverse ETFs- SKF-2x; SEF-1x-

www.proshares.com/our-etfs/find-leveraged-and-inverse-etfs?etftype=&strategy=Broad%20Market%2CSector%2CThematic%2CCommodity&benchmark=&product=Product%20Overview%20&search=

Bought 150 +100 TWM- sold 50 on the gap to lock in a $15.00 gain- set stops to sell at my entry cost avg $17.40 - Price hit stops @ 9:54-
Watching this pullback to see if the markets manage a rally.
What worked today was watching the opening 2 min bar and going long- and raising the stops- to break even B.E.
With the net $15.00 initial gain , I can allow a $0.15 move against 100 shares on another entry.
it's 9:59 and looking to see the market choose it's direction @ 10 ammm +/-

Going outside to shovel some gravel @ 10:10 am LOLO already started..

[sd]

3-27-2023

Futures well into the green! Regional banks are up this open!
Mike Wilson reiterates his view that it's too early to be buying long- expecting that the earmings will be much lower ans stock pricing is too high (relatively) and that we will see a sharper move lower before the year end...
RLEIGH BANK fIRST cITIZENS BUYS a portion of SVB ASSETS in a 'Fire Sale-' by the FDIC- FCNCA had closed Friday @ $582- but premarket is over $800.00...

If we do drop into a hard landing, recession, as many believe, the market makes a potential retest to the downside- - and even large cap tech likely get's repriced-

The small cap businesses- which make up 50% or more of the employers in this country, will find that financing rates will be more expensive- If they can even qualify with the tighter conservative standards the banks will impose .20 B vs the 128 B they hold.

The Hit to the FDIC insurance- covering the entire losses of the SVB and SBNY (?) was a substantial-% of the FDIC's assets-
What other banks may come under pressure from depositors leaving, loans exceeding assets well out of proportion- This is still a potential discovery in the weeks ahead.

Certainly a risk free return for a period of time close to a 5% annual rate has some merits- Sleep well at night knowing you're keeping par with inflation at least-



Day trades- Will look at Semis, Tech,Small caps SOXL,TQQQ,TNA


Long SOXL @ the open as the price pulls back $16.60





The 3 all opened higher, but all are pulling back- only 1 position presently - 150 SOXL $16.60 and it had a big drop on the Friday Close-
If the futures are an indication, the markets want to try to go higher- Semis often hold up well- As I write this- Semis are making a turn up @ 9:43




Splitting the position- selling partial 25 shares, leapfrogging trailing stops

stops getting filled -small gains -


Down to just 25 shares, stop just above my entry cost $16.65


9:56- Stopped out entire position- small gains in the stops-
Often 10 am is the turn - market will figure out a direction from here.

Notice how similarly the individual etfs track each other-







pending orders-
10:13




10:18 Weakness across the 3 showing up -
Using the higher buy-stop was a prudent choice this am - When price is making that tight sideways consolidation with bars aligned at a level- setting a Buy stop above that level requires Price to make a "breakout" of that lower level- If the supply of Buyers exceeds the supply sellers are willing to give up their shares, Price gets bid higher.


I'm surprised that small caps-TNA is not pulling back much here.



10:30 - Price weakness continues in TQQQ,SOXL- declining below the downtrending fast ema-
TNA interestingly is trying to stay in a sideways range- Not at all what I expected to see- based on my view that small caps are going to be very pressured moving forward in the months ahead- Goes to show not trust your Bias....

Price is pulling back to the low trend line set Friday




Bought both TQQQ,SOXL on the bounce off the trend line withg stops just below the lows made. If I get stopped out, it will be for a small loss- Have a $12 gain in SOXL from the earlier sells.




potential move higher ?


11:00 Stopped out as price reversed after trying to push higher on 1 green bar upmove. I had also bought TNA with a limit order if price pulled back to $29.30 which filled. I had a sell order for 1 share with a stop on the board already in preparation in case of a fill, so I set that stop at $$29.22 initially, but on the weakness seen in SOXL,TQQQ, raised that stop to $29.$28- it filled at $29.27 so a loss of $0.03 x 50 shares = -$1.50

With weakness dominating- The trend looks to favor the inverse of these- I may try SQQQ ....to see if the selling momentum picks up. OR, TZA- small cap inverse






TZA -buy-stop order on a breakout above slow psar

Stop will be $23.22 below the breakout range low.
Buy stop was filled on an upmove push, but that faded- My stop $34.22 on the entry @ 34.47 is risking a relatively wide stop based on the prior lows of the price base. Risk is $0.25 on 100 shares = -$25.00-
Stop is hit and fills @ $34.22

Can't find a trend so I'll take my losses -$ 37.82 (total) and step to the sidelines for the day unless something develops-
Nice sideways move in SOXL
Back in SOXL- used a limit to buy in this sideways base/consolidation $16.08- Stops using the lower psar $15.98 Risk is $0.10
Looking for it to try to push higher- will sell 1/2 on a initial move - Have 2 stops 50 shares each
Just had a red bar dip - let's see if it takes out the stops
stops were hit - could this just be a day of slow selling grind???


sectors this am: Financials leading- Tech and Comm services lower...

[sd]

3-28-2023
Futures in the Red premarket-


I made a few trades- ended up slightly in the RED as the am Chopped around- Went outside and finished distributing the dump truck load of ABC stone in the drive-
Apparently a negative trend developed in the pm.

[sd]

3-29-03 Futures all solidly in the Green-
Yesterday, the Senate grilled the FDIC Barr on how and why the run on the SVG bank and SBNY was handled,= Today I think the House takes it's turn.

Looking to be another great Spring day here- but I'll see if I can manage to get a few winning trades by focusing on the Long side-

I'm presently viewing the price action on a 2 minute chart-and not jumping to Buy at the open- There's a lot to learn on choosing to enter- particularly if price has a gap open -like will be the case today in most long ETFs that I'd be interested in-

So, If price has a big gap open- and the 2 minute bar closes strongly higher- that suggests a bullish momentum- but how long will that continue?
I'm also learning the importance in this type of day trading to have a stop-loss order already in effect on the screen with my target purchase order pending-
So, to that aspect, I have a 1 or 2 share position already in the account-
I set a sell stop market order for that 1 share with a very wide stop- As soon as I see my Buy order is filled- for example a Buy-stop to Buy 50 shares of XYZ on a breakout move higher, I then immediately change the 1 share to 50 shares and set the actual stop price where I want to not risk too much on the trade- By having that order alreay on the screen, it saves precious seconds from having to shift from the order page to the position page- and make a new order - Particularly, as there is a bit of lag on my stockcharts screen updating - potentially 15 seconds delay between the actual trade being reflected on the price chart-The Think or Swim platform may be more timely....?
So, today I'll be looking at TQQQ, SOXL, TNA-

The Sicilian Goat Chart uses standard deviation values -originally by Brian Watts- A few people are using it on the Leavitt Bros board-
www.google.com/search?q=Sicilian+Goat+Chart&rlz=1C1WHAR_enUS959US959&oq=Sicilian+Goat+Chart&aqs=chrome..69i57j33i160.8358j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#ip=1


I'm also splitting my position stops- When I have a larger position on- say 100 shares- and I get a couple of bars that have moved in my favor- I'm starting to Sell a portion into the upmove, and lock in a small gain on that portion, and then immediately tighten staggered stops up and try to get above my entry cost- Instead of Hoping for a major trend to occur and a wider stop- These trend moves often fade and drop back quickly- so without knowing how things will actually be by 10 am or so- the initial trades are expecting some volatility-

Potentially i could view the Bid/Ask to see the expected open price area - and bracket a small entry order on that open- just ahead of the actual open- with a stop ready to go.

In both SOXL,TQQQ- 100 share size- Have sold 25 shares of each to lock in a partial gain- This will allow my stops to be just above my cost of entry.
This is about $4k in the combined positions. The SOXL and TQQQ positions were initially smaller, both stopped out and then both filled on buy-stop up moves.
Here @ 10:10 markets are holding onto their gains so far, but not trending-
just got a lower Red bar starting in TQQQ- but it hasn't pushed down to my $25.79 stop- Call me superstitious, Ithe price lows in this recent range are $25.81 , so I want to be below the round number $25.80 - Getting a bullish green bar advance in SOXL trying - 10:18 These 2 often mimic each other, and now seeing a green in the TQQQ


Getting these green bars ,slightly higher consolidation looks promising- I may add a buystop to add

Price made a sharp Red bar pullback right down to the prior base lows- I bought 100 shares at this $16.60 with a stop-loss $15.57- Risk is $3.00 on this add to the position- Extremely tight stop- but the position size is now 175 shares with stops $15.57, $15.58 and looking to see a potential upmove as still a possibility that may occur- TQQQ stops out as price drops below the base lows.


SOXL stops out 10:36- not yet reflected on the chart price bar

Here is the bar that takes out my stops- selling 175 shares on this :


@ 10:40, I'm out of both positions- Taking partial profits earlier in SOXL was prudent- I presently have a $5.97 gain in that position and an -$0.81 cent loss in TQQQ.

I jumped back into both SOXL and TQQQ as they dropped and made a single bounce- 100 shares each - I'm now at a -$2.03 in SOXL and -$10.73 in TQQQ-
both trades were impulsive as there was only an uptick in the stochastic-

I'll likely try to get a few more entries at a better indicators


Back in Both with just 50 share size on a proper base and MACd cross


Elevated trailing Stops hit for small gains on the smaller size positions- Now just profitable for the day, but cautious
Charts down to just 1 day view - stochastics rolling over - let's see how closely these mimic each other.


As the day evolved, the uptrend reversal from the day's lows continues- seeing a big drop as I write this and experimented with some wider stops - will see what happens -
The 34 ema is a favorite "support' of Devoid's I'm a bit under that presently in SOXL, but my stop in TQQQ triggered as it was right at $25.83-

Tightened stops on this strong surge higher- stopped out on the pullback here in Both-


Back in 150 SOXL ,TQQQ, but both failed to hold @ 12:46 and rolled over- Tight stops on both filled.
Now, I have a $9.39 gain in SOXL and $8.31 Loss in TQQQ - can't even get an order of fries for that LOL!



Comparing these 3x charts to their underlying SMH, QQQ- Prices of those are comparatively in a narrow sideways range-

Fun experimenting with these on a somewhat cooler spring day!





I went back in and added -doubled my position size- 250 shares TQQQ and 150 SOXL- both of which turned and rolled -
At this point @ 2pm I'm net positive on the day with a $3.00 offset in a positive return in SOXL + $19.91 compared to a Negative TQQQ -$16.71
Midafternoon, TQQQ is sideways and below the emas , while SOXL appears to be holding an uptrend making a new high on the day.
Price action remains choppy and sloppy- with Price all over the emas-
I'll pack it in for the remainder of the afternoon I think- and attend to some outdoor chores.... Plan to add some compost to a few areas where i intend to plant some new varieties of Kiwis.

One approach i just did- bought at the pullback to the trend line and sold on the move baqck up- Netted a $10.00 gain on 100 share position.
I had a tight stop below the prior swing low- worked-
adding size and trailing stops a few $0.02 below -
Grinding out some net gains


Getting a nice run this pm with 250 shares- Just had 125 stop out $17.38 while the remaining 125 stop is $17.37!


Made some $$$$here- just stopped out a new fill for a $7 loss on 100 lot.
Gains in SOXL are now $82.00 with this pm capturing a nice group of trades as price made a breakout...
Down in TQQQ -$10.82- didn't try to manage both positions this afternoon- SOXL trend looked better to stay on the Long side.



Overall, I consider today a relatively decent success-day trading- This morning it was a choppy mix, and I gradually worked my way out of being in the Red into some gains- but this afternoon I managed to latch onto a stronger trend and also I sized up on my trades-At one time holding 250 shares-

The Key element in sizing up is protecting the potential RISK of a sharp downturn drop in the position- That's also why I'm not holding overnight with any size- The Risk is simply way too large- potentially- Also, making a mistake in setting a stop accurately and promptly can see a sharp gap lower intraday....

How to mitigate the Risk- I'll buy a couple of shares to already have on my position page ... Then- before taking a larger position-set a stop order for each of the 1 share positions - potentially below the present area- I'm starting to see that price often holds a price level in a relatively tight sideways range- A stop just a penny or 2 below the range lows is obviously extremely tight- but often the pullback/consolidation (within an uptrend)
If I Buy at Market, I immediately change the stop market order from 1 share to the 100 share buy order that just got filled.
Similarly, If i am using a buy-stop order and it suddenly fills, I also have a 1 share order with a stop-loss in place that I can simply modify to a 100 share order and adjust the stop price if needed. I used to be able to accomplish this with a complex order in the Interactive Brokers account- you could make an order attachment for a stop- a trailing stop- plus also have a limit order sell target as well as that stop-loss - and if one order filled the other would be cancelled-

Today's trading started off with mixed results, in a non trending market, but as a true trend developed with some momentum, I was able to turn a lackluster day into a positive net gain- in the afternoon.
I correctly selected to trade SOXL based on the merits that it had held an uptrend versus TQQQ that weakened- and only recovered later in the day-
Focusing on just the 1 position was beneficial, as was recognizing that there was a difference in the price action between the TQQQ, and the SOXL- although they generally moved in concert similarly, the price action and the emas developed differently as the day proceeded.

There is a definite learning curve and perhaps nuances in price action - but the predominant feature is to realize if the trend direction is supported by the emas.
I had a certain success in making earlier entries versus setting higher entries on Buy-stops- The lesser loss of an early Buy with a stop just $0.04 or $0.03 compared to a buy-stop with a stop of $0.10 using the same consolidation base as a significant level by which to set the stop allows one to make 3 tries for the 1st entry versus 1 buy-stop entry.

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