|
|
Post by sd on Oct 15, 2024 7:59:49 GMT -5
10-15- 24 futures flat
NVDA made a new Closing high- yesterday-!
Financials-XLF another new high!
lot of sector strength. So- the market appears to be ignoring that October is typically a seasonally weak month the majority of years- at least so far-
earnings are critical to sustain this present trend in the green!
NVDA getting sold today on the 'News' the Gpv't may restrict sales to foreign countries...
URE- adding the 2x real estate today.
Note leveraged ETFs- are beneficial only when trending higher- Also can maximize a return for less funds allocated-
APO- pRIVATE EQUITY- hAVE TRADED THIS SEVERAL TIMES- Doubled my present position with a stop on the combined at Break-Even.
|
|
|
|
Post by sd on Oct 17, 2024 6:33:30 GMT -5
10.17.2024
premkt- futures in the green- Big day yesterday closing high into the close.
TSMC reported and beat and gave bullish guidance- That should support the other chips-
Doubled down this week on several positions with net gains- So far, this rally continues
and ignores the negative sentiment around October.....
Big open gains faded some- Elevated stops- many getting triggered.
|
|
|
|
Post by sd on Oct 18, 2024 7:50:01 GMT -5
pre mkt- slightly green-
Options Expiration today!
Markets really wobbled yesterday-
I was aggressive with raising most stops and netted a solid gain in the Roth- Flattish in the IRA.
Roofing on the addition today! Blue skies and sunshine!
Climbed up on the roof yesterday with the 20V dewalt mini limb saw. Set up a safety line, donned the harness to hook off with, and cut the overhanging pine branches off.
Dow has gone red premkt.
|
|
|
|
Post by sd on Oct 19, 2024 7:23:32 GMT -5
Shadow trader
www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8q_Fv8NuGg
From 2022- Weighted advance/decline- market internals- weighted A/d - along with the EW line to follow the S&P sectors market performance-
This was a proprietary indicator that was offered as an add-on in TOS or Trading View at the time .
Good example of using the /AD line to guide trades to be aware and to use the market direction on the faster time frames to be 'With' the market direction-
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOMFQ4Fa1Jw
Stockcharts Symbols for various A-D
For the S&P :
Shadow Trader Open House this WED 10-23 7 pm for a presentation of the different members trading approaches.
Cathy Wood predicting recession & deflation:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=F0F1NdFYMLo
Ray Dalio-warns
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1aHgaQvuXTQ
|
|
|
|
Post by sd on Oct 20, 2024 6:57:24 GMT -5
Geo from the LB board- posted this interesting chart that extends into the future-I wasn't aware of that feature- been a stock charts member for a decade+
|
|
|
|
Post by sd on Oct 21, 2024 10:31:52 GMT -5
10-21-2024
Futures reading in the REd zone pre mkt.
Sectors all in the RED- TZA is the only trade I'm in @ 11;30 am- trailing a stop on the 2M
|
|
|
|
Post by sd on Oct 22, 2024 8:27:58 GMT -5
Premkt- 10.22.2024 plenty of Red....
|
|
|
|
Post by sd on Oct 23, 2024 7:26:21 GMT -5
10.23.2024
Shadow trader open house @ 7PM -
www.shadowtrader.net/openhouse/?mc_cid=0948838218&mc_eid=UNIQID
"Are you struggling in the current market?
Want to learn a new “edge” or sharpen the one you already have?
Seasonally, the end of the year is the time to MAKE MONEY in the markets. Our pros will be going over what’s currently working for them in this market.
This is a FREE event and it will be recorded. There is no sign up required. On Wednesday, October 23rd at 7pm ET, just click the link below to enter:
ENTER THE OPEN HOUSE
And the best part?
All attendees will receive a special coupon code for a BIG DISCOUNT on Live Trading Suite.
Stocks, Options, Swing trading, DTE0, Futures Daytrading, Weeklies: Almost guaranteed that someone on our team is trading a style that works for YOU! "
The 10 Year- above 4% and climbing- big negative for lower mortgage rates in the future-
Partial evening analysis from Jason @ www.leavittbrothers.com
Tight stops- UBER, MSOS, bought yesterday- Big initial pop in MSOS- with a strong Close. Tightened the UBER stop to just below today's open low.
MCD day 2 of selling following the E-Coli outbreak in the midwest...
mid afternoon-Bears continue to win the day- my stops triggered- lots in cash...
|
|
|
|
Post by sd on Oct 23, 2024 17:17:02 GMT -5
The BEAST trades- 25 contracts in the ES futures- using a 20 second chart for entries and exits-
Amazing performance- amazing use of leverage.
Beast is found at the www.Leavittbrothers.com website-
Chart takes a bit of study to understand it-
This is trading using the technicals to guide entry and exits-
Beast is retired- and a very successful trader- and- by using 'size-' can make small moves pay off -
Blue vert line is a trade entry-
View the indicators that prompted his taking an action- long or short-
The MACD 12-26-1 was initially well lower than the 0.0 line- and the emas were well seperated - initially-
Trade 1 12:26 long $823.25 reverses short 12 ticks later (12 x 20 = 240 seconds =4 Minutes later) - Nets $3.50 /25 contracts= Gain $4,375.00
Trade 2 goes short $826.75 reversal @ trade 1 sell- Note how he indicates with the vertical blue bar- the fewer indicators that supported his decision.
Similarly- note the vertical dashed line @ 12:33 - that appears to have been a Close on the trade + $ 8,125.00 gain on this 2nd trade. Note how far below the converging emas price has dropped.
Entry 3 took a wait for the indicator/price action to resolve- and it was a very quick trade-
Then back short- AND THEN LONG 12:41- AND SHORT @ 12:50
wow!
"
|
|
|
|
Post by sd on Oct 24, 2024 7:46:22 GMT -5
TSLA beat-
Nas up big.
Beast chart premkt
Yesterday both IBM and Service Now beat, but both got sold off.
Recovery today?
BA strikers reject a tenative settlement proposal- the Dow in the RED.
Briefing.com pre mkt
www.briefing.com/stock-market-update
Fat Finger-" bought 110 BA- vs 11 - sold for a loss of $0.09 as soon as i saw the filled order. cARELESS NOT TO REVIEW THE ORDER BEFORE PUSHING THE sEND.
tmus- bEAT ON EARNINGS- I set a lmt order that filled at the open- Gained $7 on the surge- raised tight stop filled- Nice gain- setting a trailing stop for a potential reentry.
Buy stop for a 2nd trade fills. Tight stop less than $1 under the initial pullback.
Not allowing the stop to be under the low swing.
BA- entry 10:19
BA breaks the fast ema- stop raised to within $0.02 of the swing low.
11 am :
TMUS- 2 winning trades this am- 2nd trade stops are triggered.
BA also weakens and triggers a raised stop to lock in a small gain .
Following the 2nd trade stop getting triggered, I didn't follow TMUS after the pullback to look for another entry-
POET is a tech stock recently promoted by TSY on u tube
I took a spec trade in this pullback after it initially had a momo move at the open-
Stop loss is within $0.04 so I sized up a bit.
Poet does not move higher- stop fills $0.01 lower than my $3.90 -
Plenty of conjecture out there to expect the mkts sell-off as we go towards the election-
The rising 10 yr bond is not a positive for stocks.
|
|
|
|
Post by sd on Oct 25, 2024 7:40:35 GMT -5
10.25.2025
Futures in the green-across the board pre mkt.
Carter Worth pointed out on Fast Money laswt night that only a few semi stocks are keeping the SMH index outperforming-
The XSD E.Wt version of the SMH is flat over the past 3 years.
This really illustrates how the Cap weight sector SMH performance is due to a relatively small number of companies that are mega caps and outperforming- When these mega cap leaders slow and falter-and lose the mkt support- watch out
Using a similar comparison- for technology The QQQ megacap has been an outperformer due to the top 7 mega caps.
QQEW SIGNIFICANT UNDERPERFORMER.
RSP eQ wt VS Cap wt SPY- same 500 stocks
Similarly- Small cap 2000 IWM contains a lot of unprofitable companies.
IJR is supposed to be comprised of the best 600 small cap stocks with positive cash flows.
"Common Sense" suggests that the IJR is the better investment.
tHE CHART SINCE 2021 SUGGESTS THAT THE ijr WILL BE THE LONGER TERM OUTPERFORMER-
however: from 50 days to the prior 600 days, the IJR is an underperformer to the IWM ...What is going on with this?
Briefing.com- www.briefing.com/stock-market-update
Excellent source to get updated on the overnight events.
Earnings yesterday, and the after hours reaction :
i.imgur.com/FJ01TNR.png
COF,LHX,WDC- I'll be viewing all 3 at the open to potentially look for more upside-
TMUS- Closed solidly at a new high yesterday - Nice trade- perhaps there's more?
TSLA had a big gap up on it's earnings beat- and surged even higher-
Devoid bought the Open and rode it for a big gain.
To be found at www.Leavittbrothers.com- Follow that guy is my recommendation-
He does both swing and day trades-
LHX trade- Early entry close to the P>O>F> as the MACD rose above the 0.0 line- well ahead of Sar -
Price has made an initial up move- stop is now raised above my entry cost.
rED BAR OPENS LOWER- Above my stop -giving this some breathing room.
Move higher- Couple of Trend lines for a reference- One is wider, through the PSAR .
Higher high allows me to raise the trailing stop- giving it a small room below the swing low pullback.
Stop was at $253.38 filled at $253.06- wide spreads.
2nd entry -tried to set $254 buy stop- price moved too fast- chased to buy at mkt.
Got stopped out as I raised the stop higher once price moved up- Small loss here.
Trade stop filled lower $253.85 $0.13 below the stop trigger.
Taking a new position in TMUS on the oversold reaction big red bar seeing bullish buying-
This represents a potential Base and I made 2 buys here- with the total Risk $0.35/sh on the position
Close up view 2M chart price action
The reason to take some gains when they are presented- TMUS holders felt great yesterday
but today? Profits declining.
split the stops on red bar weakness.
Bought BA on the 'news'
Stop fills on this decline- $0.09 loss/25 sh.
1 position stop triggers- 1 remains below the pivot.
|
|
|
|
Post by sd on Oct 27, 2024 7:21:56 GMT -5
SMB- trading & psychology- emotions Dr.Brett
www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFHwM5cimq4
Be 'Observers' of our emotions- self aware- concious-
Emotions we are 'feeling' are not good-or bad- in of themselves-They are the 'signal' ....The response is to recognize we are in a heightened emotional state- and we can use them to increase our self awareness and center ourself to be reacting from a place of centering ourselves towards the rational, logical, and less emotional center place we need to make decisions from.
Expected value tool- SMB Risk vs Reward
www.youtube.com/watch?v=6L7hxMfTh34
|
|
|
|
Post by sd on Oct 29, 2024 15:11:11 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by sd on Oct 30, 2024 10:04:39 GMT -5
10.30.2024
ONLY 1 SMALL LOSING TRADE TODAY -UDOW- that was in the AM-!
Account was unlocked after calling Schwab and initiating new credentials.
Very aggressive with stops today.
TSLL- TSLA leveraged ETF
Giving the UDOW another go- as price tries to push higher 11:20
but weakens- will the swing low hold as a support?
TSLL stop is raised as red bars form on a pullback-
This bearish price pullback with the red bars often goes several red bars lower-
The 21 ema hadn't been violated yet.
as expected- several lower Red bars that make a Lower Low- -
As a general guide- using the Elder impulse bars- Red bars on a pullback are reason to tighten up a stop.
UDOW stop is now raised to Break EVEN on this 3rd trade.
Stop raised to net a small gain as price drops below the rising 6 ema- will offset the loss in TSLL.
Small gain in RDDT today- but w-c-s given it more leeway as it has now surged higher.
Udow pulls back- The uptrend fails to develop- small gain.
AOPO buy stop fills, stop above Break even - wide spreads on this
I made several trades in APO-earlier- failed to note that my Buy-stop filled $146.10 @ $146.19
so I didn't see that 11:15 pullback below my entry- got to get a price alert/sound for when a trade may execute!
Stop gets triggered- Locks in small gains $146.48 stop fills $146.45
I did BUY 4 META today- on it's breaking up momentum just ahead of tonights earnings. No Stop here- Roll of the dice -gamble that the positive earnings seen this week (snap,) Googl will also be seen in Meta-
bUY -apo- ANOTHER TRADE ENTRY -Possible UPSIDE reaction can happen here .
iNDICATORS ARE SUGGESTING-GO LONG- Very small Risk on this trade of $0.20 with a stop under the red bar low.
stop could be raised here- to $146.29 - as the attempt to move higher is presently sideways.
12.49 pm
stop is now raised 12:53 to just below the 1st consolidation low and below VWAP level $146.37-
Requires that Price does not make a lower thrust than the consolidation lows.
Shucks- Apo stops out at 1 pm -The entry cost $146.41- Stop raised on "expectations" $146.37 fills at $146.46 Loss of $0.05 on 20 shares -$1.00
Pushing the envelope here that a break of the trend on the time frame is the heads up - and also- a wide stop is not necessarily a way to win on a trade- He who controls his losses and allows winners to run- wins over the long run.
After lunch, back at the computer- Took a entry early in APO, and dbld the position using a buy-stop $146.48-
Average cost $146.42- Got the initial small upmove, but price paused- I elevated the stop to above my entry and Price broke down lower vs trending up higher.
Net $0.06 gain above cost- essentially a Break even trade.
Holding a 4 share position- now at a loss into Googl's earnings- Risk is Easily seeing a $25/share drop on a miss.
Entry mkt $146.29 stp $146.18 increased share size a tad. Tight risk here-
looking iffy- 3.19 pm
came close to triggering the stop
![]() i.imgur.com/UQyuunx.png
That's as Close a pullback came come without the stop triggering. $146.18. allowing a few cents below the swing lows in that basing-
stepping up a bit- this priice bar- If it fails, the stop gets tightened to B.E.
Trailing a raised stop as price trends higher - looking to see a potential momo move into the close-
Not to see- stop triggers for a $0.18 gain.
META coming into the Close - Has price expectations to get $220.00+
GOOGL beat earnings- expect Meta to follow suit. Taking a chance holding into earnings!
Meta 1 Hour
Meta beat some earnings, but is down -2.5% on the initial report.
@ 5pm bid/ask in EH is $581/$582
Fun day today to be back trading and not being the Plumber- but still have to put some final touches on the final 'test' of the plumbing-
Valves are shut- this weekend will give it a full test .
Tomorrow heading out to Costco for new tires for the truck- Excellent overall pricing, warranty for 5 years- roadside assistance- free rotations/balancing, and filled with Nitrogen -
"Class tonight" at the local CC on Retirement Planning LOL!
Some screenshots of where things closed on the day- MKTS ended up closing in the RED.
APO- cLOSED slightly below the Open.
UDOW- giving it all back this pm.
TSLL -ENDS IN THE red.
mETA position is down -$94 in after hours- 2.3%- Listening to Gene Muenster on Fast Money- he likes Meta on both a valuation and a AI beneficiary already in play.
Cannot allow the market to take it down much further without taking my loss- it was a recognized gamble- but it seemed to have decent results overall. Will watch it into the Open- to see if it can get any bounce higher.
With the larger indexes all softening and rolling Red today, it puts pressure on even the good trades-
It's prudent to be aware of whether the Tide in the index- or Sector- supports the direction of one's trade-
As i use the faster time frame charts more- I start to look for the opportunity to consider a low Risk entry close to the P.O.F.
The trend, price behavior, and indicator action all are components. and- despite paying for Real time charting in stockcharts- there is still a bit of a lag- 5-10 seconds +/- between the price action and the chart responding-
So, I've gradually started to trail buy stop pricing- above the price- and that has proved beneficial -overall- On some trades- Cannot watch too many at one time-
Similarly- I need to get using the stockcharts Alerts when price makes a certain price move- unless Schwab offers a way to do that for one's trades.
Need to ask customer support if that is possible.
|
|
|
|
Post by sd on Oct 31, 2024 8:29:00 GMT -5
10.31.2024
Futures in the RED-
META's report and guide did not meet the market's expectations-I'll be seeing a loss on the 4 shares- Bid shown premkt @ $583
I paid $599.00- so -presently looking at a -2.67% loss- That's not that severe- if i planned to be an "Investor'- I'll be focused on watching it's performance at the open- $475 represents a -6% decline on -$25 - Will this be a Buy the DIP opportunity for other investors?
The initial Open 5 minutes often sees a bottom on price- and then some buyers may step in-and see a rebound occur-
The drop at the open may present a day trade Opp to buy more shares very close to the P.O.F. using the low of the opening bar and setting a trailing buy-stop- More on this -
My decision to take a recognized gamble on it beating earnings will likely see an open down -$25-$35.00/share-
Fortunately, only holding 4 shares- The funnymentals suggest that Meta's pe is not overly hyped- forward PE 23.85 ;
MSFT @ 28.33; AMZN 32.98; Googl 19.54 , TSLA 77.93;
However, Futures this am suggest the initial open will be to the downside-
CPE report - inflation is still there- but not increasing- 10 Year is still above 4% ...4.29 - so the bond mkt is the 'safe' alternative to stocks-and a rising Bond suggests concerns about the economy-election- and both candidates are not showing a desire to become more fiscally responsible. Reportedly Trumps agenda may be more inflationary than Harris's proposals-
Will dbl down with a tight stop Meta into the open low.
tHIS DBL DOWN approach worked -in this case- because I got the initial reaction drop- but this is dangerous - Price went lower than the bid/Ask - The 2nd minute saw price rebound higher- and I then followed with a rising stop-loss. that executed above my 2nd entry @ a $588.00 stop.
and reduced the net loss on the trade to -$22.40.
Had i simply held the trade with the initial 4 shares @ $ 599, It initially would have seen a -$84 loss if sold on the opening bar low-
If sold and filled at the open, $585 - that would have been a loss of 4 x $14= -$56.00- but price dropped fast, so a Mkt sell could have filled much lower.
more- but off to get new tires for the Ram.
COSTCO-Best deal and warranty and free nitrogen, rebalancing, and rotations and repairs - Michelin tires- with the heavy 123 load rating . Way better than Discount Tire all things compared!
3:45 - DECIDED TO TAKE A SMALL SHORT ON AAPL just a few minutes before it reports earnings-
Meta trades- After the initial stop out after averaging down, and turning a larger loss into a smaller net loss-
Got lucky there- I also took a following trades-Trade 4 on a couple of bullish green bars that did not go higher-
Price Dipped, set a higher swing low- tried to go back higher- I set the stop under that higher swing low- Price pulled back, triggered the stop and made a final attempt to go higher, and then rolled over.
The AAPL report- beat on earnings/revenues- but the services # came in slightly low. The service segment is what has allowed AAPL to trade at a much higher multiple than it used to @ 31x pe.
|
|
