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Post by sd on Aug 27, 2024 6:59:34 GMT -5
8.27.2024 Futures mixed- @ 8 am -all near the 0 line.
eod-
tRADING SUB PAR- sIDEWAYS RANGES - PUSHED TRADES...
Tom Lee @ the compound with Josh
www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-B7S34pDd0
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Post by sd on Aug 28, 2024 15:41:26 GMT -5
Wrong thread-2024
8.28 Better trading today- Focused only on TZA,TNA -
Multiple trades made -and much tighter stops - Big difference in the price spreads on TZA AS a $14.50 stock price and the TNA above $42.00.
Waiting on NVDA to report here in the pm in a few minutes-
NVDA is expected to outperform, markets can easily sell-off-
Salesforce reported a beat but lowered the forward guidance.
CRWD also beats but sees a future impact from their botched software update.
Carrying over TZA again -overnight- full position - missed selling right at the Close.
NVDA reported beats, but did not blow out expectations- seeing some selling in the after hours- waiting for the guidance.
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Post by sd on Aug 29, 2024 6:53:21 GMT -5
Wrong thread -2024
8.29.2024 Futures in the Green...NVDA down slightly @ $121.00 pre mkt.
TZA carry over -in the RED. Failed to push the sell confirm at the Close in time- missed by 1 second.
Modified 1M chart- Orange line represents the 7 ema- Green line the 50 ema- black dashed line the 200 ema for dominant trend direction.
VWAP-pink line- When price is below , holders are mostly underwater- When price is above, holders are in the green
The MACD 7,16,1 ; 12,26-1 the black line 'hook' often signifies an early turn in price direction/momentum. a cross of the pink 12-26-1 line bears watching.
Histogram- the 0.0 line cross can be a signal - front running as the histogram improves towards the 0.0 line is also a consideration to get an early entry.
Price is not shown on the 1st chart- I've been using the 2 M chart , but will also start using the 1M chart alongside- the 2M-
The relatively small price moves on the TZA/soxs represent a large% as these are under $10 compared to the higher priced long SOXL, TNA. etc.
TNA
Sold TZA position for a loss -pre mkt. held overnight inadvertently- too slow on the trigger cutting it too close to the market Close At 4 pm. yesterday.
Trade 1 TNA on the reversal higher.
stop ticked up to $43.59
momo struggling
Nets + $0.86 on TNA tight trailing stops
Re entry stops out at B.E.
TNA- made 2 buys- avg $43.66 cost - stop now @ B.E.
Significant difference comparing signals on the 1 & 2 M vs the 5M
VWAP seemed to provide an area of buying interest.
adjusting stop higher with the sar.
11:36 sar $44.08 stop triggers
The prior high was resistance- $44.25 dbl top.
a new Buy stop order following price using the sar as an entry stop mmkt price order.
Flipped- whipsawed by TZA
@ 12:07- Price trending higher-
SAR stop is just above B.E.
just adjusted to $44.34 w/sar
stop is $44.39 - sar is $44.32 tight.
12.15 pm
Price is waay above Vwap-
stop triggers- New buy stp $44.51 is in place on a potential snap back up move
Markets completely rolled over at 2 pm -
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Post by sd on Sept 1, 2024 3:45:01 GMT -5
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Post by sd on Sept 3, 2024 8:05:23 GMT -5
wrong thread-2024
9.3.2024 Futures all RED to start September-
EOD- Hard sell-off today-
Small TZA test position in the AM, held all day- Company today, didn't follow the markets.
Had to sell out of NVDA this am on price declining hard- Loss on the recent position.
NVDA gets a subpoena from the Justice dept...
Semis getting trashed- Tech-in general getting continued weakness.
HOLDING tza OVERNIGHT- fAMILY VISITING TODAY- SO NO other trading focus.
From Pete at the LB Board- Illustrating how the defensive sectors have turned recently and are outperforming the stall and pullback in the SPY
Worth paying attention to! Sector rotation is penalizing the Tech leadership- as a source of funds to rotate into other sectors.
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Post by sd on Sept 4, 2024 16:48:14 GMT -5
posted in wrong thread -2024
9.4.2024
Futures remain in the RED premkt, but improving from 7 am -9 am.
TZA cLOSED @ $15.26 - SHOULD OPEN HIGHER...
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Post by sd on Sept 5, 2024 5:50:54 GMT -5
9.5.2024 Thursday -Futures flattish @ 7 am - Nas slightly RED , S&P, Dow slightly green.
Jobs report Friday- MKTs believe a FED cut is inevitable coming up in September- The question is how large-
A lot of economic deterioration is occurring, as seen from ad decline in retail spending, pullbacks by the consumer , and job openings are reduced.
The hype over AI has now become a "show me" - prove there is actual value for business to make money- The scare over AI is that it will easily allow employers to cut back on employees, as fewer people will be required as AI will supposedly increase individual worker productivity.
September is traditionally a poor month for investing- Upcoming elections are undecided- and business will have to determine how the new congress and president will impact their business-
Biden plans to block Nippon Steel from Buying US STeel as a security Risk- The steel worker Union is against the merger...
China is dumping steel at low cost -
The Tariffs proposed by both Trump and The Harris side while designed to make American companies more competitive- will bring on more inflation in higher costs of goods. That's directly in conflict with the FED trying to control inflation with restrictive rate hikes and planning to ease now that inflation appears to be trending lower.
Jason Leavitt- video on August was a Terrible month-- possibly posted this previously-
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-sUIlc5D1qI
Positioned defensively SPLV, IHI but with stops-
Tom LEE suggests the next 8 weeks are likely -7-10% decline- also a buying opportunity-
www.youtube.com/watch?v=9K6vbJ9jJyY
8:45- Futures are all deeper in the red.-
Traded impulsively yesterday after making several good trades initially, and ended up in the RED trading TZA/TNA-Had winning trades to start off- but gave it back forcing trades. The post market review- really illustrates - got to go where price is trending-
Focused again on TZA/TNA- small size and focused on price action- many trades- but drifted and took a few trades in TSLL this pm -which put me in the RED -$14.00 ..
However, the small size trading was net profitable-but i made an intentional decision to trade small, use the 2M time frame- and test myself for being able to align myself with the directional changes in the market- Amazing when you start to view the 2 sides of the market gyrations-
Comparing the long and the inverse side by side is an eye opener-
Today was a day where the MM opened price and then reversed direction quickly- That fake out open undoubtedly sucks buyers in- and triggers stops on the other side- MM got to be laughing at every open-
Lots of chop and slop today - and rotations in trend direction
The sloppy volatiity in the 1st 30 minutes seemed to settle in -as it often does-Right @ 10 am...
The 2 day chart gives an indication of the prior trend -0
VWAP -on this faster time frame - is difficult to judge the merits- Overall- The up trend appears more vigorous when Price is above the Vwap.
An anchored Vwap may be the better selection for day trading---Where the starting point can be adjusted to fit swings on the price chart.
this Example is the 5 day, 5M chart - The 5 day look tells us that TZA is trending up and to the right- now above the 200 ema compared to where it was 8-29; 8-30 - Granted trends can change -and often do - look at the different opens- and how price rolls up and down most days-
9-3 was the exception in this chart- Trend opened up and trended higher all day.
Jobs report tomorrow- but payroll deata today indicated job weakness.
Time to be defensive !
IHI stops out today- SPLV is now in the red and close to the stop- Profits evaporating.
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Post by sd on Sept 28, 2024 19:25:35 GMT -5
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Post by sd on Oct 1, 2024 10:17:19 GMT -5
10.1.2024
mARKETS SELLING OFF- Iran reportedly ready to send ballistic missles at Israel-
Defense, and defensive sectors- is the key to be positioned- ITA XLU, XLE-
My recent efforts to stay long- have triggered stops- and perhaps it's a start to an October that will again be a net loss- as it often is.
Only my defense-ITA and XLU positions survived today-
Jason Leavitt- mini class -free,
jason-leavitt-masterclass-in-trading.teachable.com/p/free-mini-masterclass-in-trading
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Post by sd on Oct 2, 2024 6:23:49 GMT -5
10-2.2024
Futures indicated modestly in the Red Pre-mkt.
AAPL reduced a supplier's orders -potentially indicating less demand for the I phone- AAPL dropped yesterday
Perma bull-Tom Lee sees $6,000 as his end of year target- and thinks smalls will see the largest gains into 2025-
BUT- a lot of intermediate volatility due to the election, Port strike, Global conflicts.
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Post by sd on Oct 3, 2024 8:23:29 GMT -5
10.3.2024 Markets in the red -before the open- Big jobs report tomorrow-
NVDA & ACN announced yesterday a collaboration-
Open A! completed a huge funding by major investors and companies - 157 Billion valuation...as a private company-
and also with a lot of changes recently at the upper management level.
Seems that the private venture market are all aboard the AI hype train.
The real question is where does AI actually land on a company's balance sheet in the net Profits
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Post by sd on Oct 4, 2024 5:32:48 GMT -5
10.4.2024
Premkt and pre jobs report- Futures slightly green.
Port strike has been postponed until Jan- after the election- Strikers wanting a big +77% raise- and no new technology- allowed to keep the jobs secure-
That's not a tenable long term request- because technological changes increase productivity- and- workers need to adapt and be versatile- learn the new technology and keep abreast of change as it occurs- Undoubtedly, the Biden administration influenced the strikers to postpone the strike -because that would be a disaster for inflation, price hikes, shortages and cause the FED data to be
bearish....
Already expecting that the jobs will be weakening faster- supports additional increased rate cuts-
a portion of Jason's pm observations:
There's a time to trade and a time to tone things down.
There's a time to be aggressive and a time to be more defensive.
Our best indicator is the success of our own trades and our watchlist. If stocks move and pause and move again, that's important information. If they attempt to move but immediately get batted back, that too is noteable. If they move for a couple days and then fade, you guessed it; that's important.
We started getting a lack of follow through last week. CAVA printed a new high but didn't follow through. CPNG broke out, but volume wasn't heavy and the stock didn't go far before fading back. DBX traded through a resistance trendline and printed a 7-month high. But it has gone nowhere. And there are others.
The lack of follow through is the most telling sign.
This is not a time to push hard. That'll come again, but it's not the current state of the market.
Have a great night.
Damage and deaths from Helene are enormous- over 200 dead- and expected to go higher - SW counties here in NC received 30" of rain- huge 1,000 year level flooding. and few with any kind of flood insurance-
On the global scene- Israel is expected to retaliate against Iran's missile attack-this week- and concern for the oil supply disruption has spiked oil prices. Undoubtedly Biden does not want to see voters see a big surge in gas prices at the pump.
I made a TSLQ trade yesterday am - that stopped out at B.E. W-C-S- allowed the original stop to hold, as it eventually went much further in my favor-
Wide volatile swings - markets were too choppy- and, ended up going out to select new shingles for installation later this month.
On that note- I had gone on line to find a local roofer- and had entered my e-mail & phone-
Got several immediate responses- and a firm came out to give me an estimate - Talk about slick salesmen! They had a long presentation, talking up their components and products.
and came in at a ridiculous price of $1,800/100 SF (per each 1 square 10' x 10')- This small addition roof -now 25 years + old - is just 10 squares and they wanted $18,500.00!
Better Quality shingles & components- price at $120-$150.00/SQuare.
My next estimate for Materials and labor - to strip, replace, and hand nail- came in at $400/square. from a local roofer that's been here for 30+ years!
Jobs report COMES IN STRONG.
bEAST COMMENT + CHART - @ the LB board. Identifying a move that is 'too far, too fast'
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Post by sd on Oct 8, 2024 6:57:28 GMT -5
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Post by sd on Oct 9, 2024 8:21:41 GMT -5
10.9.2024 futures slightly green-
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Post by sd on Oct 13, 2024 7:41:08 GMT -5
Jason weekend report includes a lot of info from Carson Research-
Past markets that have risen prior into the election tend to have very good following results the next 1.5 years
Joys of being a homeowner - responsible for any repairs-
Roof to replace shingles,- too steep for me to redo myself...Finally got a reasonably priced estimate.
Getting proposals on a replacement HVAC system, Wide variations in the bidding.from 10k- 16k and some very polished sales pitches..
New water heater- (I'm installing-) Small water heater -just 20 gallons was $440.00
I'm replacing the 70' of water line with new sch 40 3/4" pvc and new valves-
Trying to address those items now for the longer term to be trouble free....
Trader Devoid- found on the www.Leavittbrothers.com website also has investments with Fisher Investments-
3rd quarter summary from Fisher-
Fisher- Market Minder website: Tries to be unbiased...but has some very insightful commentary -
www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary#sort=%40publisheddate%20descending&numberOfResults=15
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