SD'S -2023 DON'T JUST SIT THERE TO SURVIVE- MOVE&PROSPER!

[sd]

Some days are such a relief when you realize the Old Guy is all Bark and No Bite!

[sd]

VISITORS -lOVE THE GRAPES- i posted a sign that I no longer bowhunt.

[sd]

Trade review- TZA 10.6.23
Markets were indicated lower at the Open - TZA is the small cap 3x bear- shorts the IWM small cap index- with a 3x leverage-
My end results in taking multiple trades in TZA early on Friday- were a Net $0.0 gain/loss as I sized up on the last trade as the momentum switched from bearish to bullish- and I then went on to take positions in TNA- recorded a lot of screenshots of those trades on Friday-
Chart and trades made:
tza- dAILY CHART- fRIDAY WAS in an uptrend-


Break it down to a 15 minute chart :


nOW, THE 1 MINUTE 2 DAY CHART- notice the gap up Open- I was planning on taking a trade in TZA- but did not trust a big gap higher-



here's the 1 minute- 1 day Chart without trade annotations- The Status legend on the top left blocks viewing the price bars cleanly , Note the peak was reached early $35.05 @ 10:21- Price then declined to make a dbl bottom from early price action decline-
attempted a rally- and then turned South @ 11 AM .
Some days, the Opening price is almost the Low of the day- and if you don't jump in there, you missed the best opportunity- but that's not always the case- How do you make a decision when to enter???




TZA- TOOK A GOOD INITIAL ENTRY WAITING TO SEE WHICH DIRECTION WOULD RESOLVE
i.imgur.com/yonJuAl.png

tOOK A $8 LOSS ON A tza EARLY ENTTRY

rEENTERED $33.41- 9:51- Price initially moved higher, stop was raised to B.E. S0ld $$33.41



Trade 3 - 100 share entry $33.56 - Price rose to $33.66 but I tried to hold for more of an upmove- that failed- I split the stops on the position- sold 50 $33.53 with a $0.10 Tr stop-
Sold the remaining 50 with a wider stop $33.49 - So, Waiting to see if I try any other trades- Tech is weak, Semis weak, but choppy non trending price action.


Buy-stop for an entry in TQQQ $36.92


Tried for an upmove in TQQQ- so this is Trade 4 for the day- Entered on a bullish up move- but wanted to limit the potential loss to -$0.20- Set a trailing stop which triggered a few minutes later without any follow through

Buy -10:23- $36.92 Stops out $36.73 @ 10:29
So, Batting out on 4/4 trades- so far - Losses -$24 this am

Energy is up today on the weekend news about the likely impact for higher Oil.



Finally, Bullish up move in GLD- facing headwinds with the Dollar- Bought a 20 share position- SLV also seeing upside- Not buying there- Defense sector had a pop- not buying there either-
GLD + SDS & 75% CD's & CASH are my only long positions aside from Day trades- SDS and GLD buying today as swing trades-





I'm also going to take a small short position of ARKK- The recent You tube video by TSU makes this a contrarian play -SARK
Risk here is defined to the Friday swing low. - about $1.



Likely Out for the rest of the day- potential day trades sloppy and choppy- May take a look this pm- Have to bring out the Kayaks for a short Neuse river trip this week- 1st time with the Grand kids.. Got to check the gear, life jackets etc. Dry weather, flows will be mild coming out of the Falls Lake...







EOD- Markets recovered- My swings are in the RED- except GLD...
I can only think that the horror inflicted in Israel throws the world back in time- Horrific terrorism makes it's impact- in human lives shed due to hate and fear.
For us in the USA it was 9-11 - For others around the world , it continues- sometimes it even makes the world aware as the news out of the Middle east
iT'S Only a matter of time until some country -out of options- unleashes a nuclear option on it's perceived enemy- or that's the fear we have lived with over the many decades- Some 2nd world power using the nuclear Option to further it's


It's been a lifetime since Hiroshima and Nagasaki- ended the war in the Pacific..... In '62 Kennedy and Khrushchev- faced mutual destruction over the Cuban Missle crisis.
What haven't we learned in the 60 years since?

[sd]

10.9.23 Futures in the RED @ 8 am

Energy prices- for OIL spike due to the Israel/Palestine/Iran conflict.

[sd]

10-10-23 Futures muted- Dow up slightly.

Yesterdays rally was a surprise- Buyers stepping in despite the World news- and the lack of leadership in our political houses....FED sounded dovish yesterday- allowing mkts to rally...


Yesterday turned out to be a poor results day- trying a few day trades, but markets were sideways-
Swing trades- I'm still holding at today's Open- went into the RED with SDS and SARK- Both bearish - Should have taken on some energy positions-
GLD Closed up bullishly higher on the day.


Dan Niles- Satori fund- selectively long only 2 of the mega tech-NVDA, GOOGL- shorting AAPL, TSLA-


PaulTudor Jones- on CNBC- saying we have to address the SS, Medicaid, and endowment programs to manage the Future-debt-Meaning we have to make cuts on those programs- How about we address the excess spending /over reach and billions of dollars given away as Aid and military support to countries around the Globe? Who pays for the proposed Federal giveaway of Tuition debts?

Ranting already this am and haven't had my quota of coffee-


Should have watched my swings- they started strong, but reversed course @ 11 am- Perhaps Should have set Trailing stops-as I was heading out ----
Setting stops a bit lower this am than the bid/ask - perhaps I'll get a reprieve- but losing $150.00 on SDS,SARK at least...in the IRA acct.



OPEN- set stops under swings- SARK stopped out- SDS is lower, and stop is $0.10 below the base it's made.

Didn't try for any Day trades at today's Open-
Long a partial entry SCHW as financials getting a pop at the Open-
TNA moving straight up from the Open -$27.45- low $27.44- but not a position-
Notice the price volatility swings would have needed a wide TR stop off the open- ($0.250



WOW- (Not a position) But look at this MOMO strength- ald notice how the MOMO is slowing from wide volatile green bars to tighter and smaller Blue bars-
Also notice how high the MACD has risen- and the Stochastic- almost topped out to the max levels-
See the histogram- ticking down steadily- but still above the 0.0 line-
It tells that the momo has been slowing- and a price base or reversal is to be expected...


sIMPLY AMAZING STRENGTH AND UPSIDE PERSIST THROUGH 10:45
wE HAVE SEEN THE macd CROSS, STOCHASTIC REMAINS AT A Peak high level -


1ST bars to drop below the uptrending 10 ema- 10:50 am - super strong run up!
Where will it go from here? Obviously, I wish I had taken a position, but focused elsewheres -
Impressed by this strength and buying into small caps!

the IWM is up +1.44% @ 11 am -Solid green bar!



BX SWING STOP WILL BE BELOW THE SWING LOW LAST WEEK. -$102.


dID ADD SOME MORE SWINGS- xlf, avuv- CMC- dON'T PARTICULARLY TRUST THIS MOVE- BUT HECK- sEASONALITY SUGGESTS A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF A MARKET RALLY IN oCTOBER...


tna, TOOK A GLANCE- iMPRESSIVE THE WAY THIS IS HOLDING IT'S GAINS THIS FAR INTO THE DAY!




BA SHOWING A BOUNCE FROM THE DOWNTREND- Position taken here as a swing trade-


The conflict in the Mid East may extend to IRAN - Who presently supplies OIL to the world market- China being very dependent on Oil from IRAN- makes this a very complicated situation for the world powers....
Blame is being pointed towards IRAN as a contributor to this genocide in Israel-

Analysts saying that the Saudis and Israel almost have come to an agreement/on stabilizing the relations- and this attack is supposedly to thwart any arrangement between the Saudis and Israel normalization- of co-existance....

OIL has been dropping in price recently attributed to slowing demand due to higher prices at the gas pump in the US- However- the supply -should it be disrupted by Global situations, or hurricanes/weather- is very susceptible to the impact of these events-
If this situation gets resolved soon in the Mideast, Oil will stabilize- but it's a wildcard at present-

NOBL- Dividend Aristocrat ETF bouncing off a monthly decline- Took a position in the IRA with the expectation that the lows are in- I'm putting some of that large % cash to work today- Fingers crossed that some of these



Afternoon walk along the riverwalk with the pups-
Clouds opened up and the sun shone through!
Gotta take time to appreciate these moments and inhale!



Today, we returned after the Close - I've put 80% of the cash in the IRA into the market on this upside day- Will that be the right way to get positioned- or simply too early?
And that means Wrong from a timing point of view- I have to view the recent lows as a line in the sand- we better move up, and not revisit those lows-
So, according to Steve Eismann, Financials are uninvestible- but tell that to the market today- will it see any more follow thru this week?
We're potentially hearing the FED suggest that a wait and see approach is more likely than a higher rate- Markets just pivot on Fed Speak.
I think we have a CPI report later this week-


OH- TNA @ the EOD-- Note that it did manage to make 1 more step up higher following the momo slow down- but that was a clear signal/level to have tightened stops up-
Considering the run it had, the afternoon consolidation didn't give too much back-

[sd]

10.11.23 Futures in the Green@ 9 am

Let's see if today can follow up and build on yesterdays very bullish reversal!


Got filled with a limit TNA at the Open $28.30- stop raised to $28.28 initially

The limit order was higher- Got a fill at the low- Sold a portion as price moved up, set a $0.20 TR stop for the remaining 1/2 and the other 1/2 left a stop at my entry cost.


Entry stop looks in jeopardy:


tna $28.30 stop triggered-

GLD trade working as a swing trade started 12 days ago. Nice gap up -today.
AMZN stop up to $128.75
XLF stop $33.18
AVUV stp $77.15
BA - Nice pop up today - entry yesterday $193.65 stp today $194.75
BX- Financial - STOP risking $1 from entry cost $105.56
DES -cost $28.21 Stop $28.05

Several of these are stopping out on weakness today- AVUV,CMC,GEHC all stop out-this am-
GOLD trade GTF holding it's uptrend.



not allowing much downside this am- Stops are generally risking $1 or less-
@ 10:30 am Seeing the Small Caps-IWM rolling over today -

BA- best performer this am- Up +$5 - stop brought up to just above my entry cost yesterday


cHECK OUT THIS extreme selling in September- I bought yesterday on the Bullish R.O.T.- at least seeing some follow through today-
Stop will get me out at Break-even + unless it has a gap down open- Giving this just enough room to potentially make a recovery higher-


Notice the prior attempts that Price appeared to be trying to go higher on this 1 hour chart - The MACD responded to the bullish Price moves,
but price only made a ema crossover on OCT 6 , followed by a 2nd on Oct 7.


Late AM- Dow slips into the RED- while the S&P & Nas are still in the green...


The fast time frame charts are non directional whipsawing up and down and weakening ...

Does AMZN have a chance to rally from Here? Entry yesterday on the upmove and ema upside cross-
Not giving this too much room to the downside though. a wider stop is no guarantee here- so I'll see if this can make a step higher-
meta is trending well - and AAPKL- despite the downgrades it has seen.



@ 1PM, POSITIONS ROLLING OVER- STOPS TRIGGERING- Went from Gains into the RED in the IRA-

Birkenstock IPO scheduled to come out today - German sandal/footwear- and the IPO price was stated to be $46 is now showing to be considerably lower before it opens- $39-$41 potentially- that's a -10% overnight drop in demand...

@ 1 pm, Markets now flat/ apathy - No continuation of the momo we had seen yesterday- and I went from in the green +200 in the IRA to in the Red-and a number of my recent positions that looked promising have stopped out on my aggressive stops-
This chart of BA giving back most of it's gains seen early in the Day typifies the market- (still holding a position- with a stop above my entry price-
Remaining positions appear to be a few dividend focused ETFs- .



GOLD SHOULD BE a beneficiary in times of political unrest- but it's not outperforming today.



A few positions survived my tight stops- AMZN, GLD, DES, SPYD,SYLD- tHE LAST 3 ARE DIVIDEND PRODUCERS-
I'm disappointed that there was so little follow through higher today. Well, I'm not going to sweat the small stuff...
Keeping losses net small and stops tight may shake me out- but I've tried the other approach - as well-

[sd]

10.12.23 CPI comes in a bit hotter than expected-Futures were up premarket-but dipping somewhat after the report initially


higher gas, airplane fares, housing costs....2 year rising- 10 yr 4.59% While dipping some, futures are still in the green


COLA adjustment for 2023 SS will be a +3.2% increase....Thanks! When I was a bluecollar worker- I wasn't aware of the affect of inflation- and should have demanded at least an annual pay increase based on raises in the CPI- W-C-S- plus- if I brought more to the company, a periodic review -annual- bi annual for a merit increase as well...shortchanged myself in hindsight-


With 15 minutes to the Open, Futures have pulled back significantly- marginally in the green- -



trailing stop triggers $32.55


Nice Run!


sET A HIGHER BUY-STOP TO RE ENTER $32.75
tHAT FILLED AND STOPPED OUT-

tOOK ANOTHER RE-ENTRY AS PRICE AGAIN EXCEEDED THE $32.75 - with a cost of $32.80- initial stop $32.74- raised to $32.80









bOTH TZA,TNA



tHIS AM , I was going to enter with a 100 share position- got cold feet on this buy the open- reduced the position size to 50 shares-
I was also considering to have a higher buy-stop to add if the trade worked in my direction-
My limit was set at $31.45 as I watched the bid-ask drop -0.10 as we neared the Open- and my limit filled at the very low .






Trade 3 reentry in TZA- Missed the price breaking higher (Playing hide and seek with the new Pup to teach him his name "Frisco"
A perfect opportunity to have gotten back in on the lower green bar following the pullback - potentially-
So, it's 11 am and I don't think the MOMO will favor a significantly higher move- I moved my stop up to gain $0.08 to offset the loss in TNA long- (Lost a few on TNA with a trailing stop)
Just hiked the stop to $32.94 as price reached $33.04.



@ 11:07 , TZA trade is intact



Price reached a high $33.06- stop to $33.94-

tRADE TRIGGERS THE STOP @ 11:15 NET GAIN $0.13


last trade- for this am...


i did add to the AMZN position as a swing this am-
Initial order was a small 10 share order- Price behaved and looked to move higher-
I added 15 shares with a limit order that filled this am $131.98-
Holding 25 shares - will raise a stop for $25 @ MY COMBINED NET AVG COST.
My combined averaged Cost is now $131.40



We tOOK THE DOGS FOR A walk along the river bike path- Got back to find everything in the RED @ 2pm.


Could have captured another leg higher had I stuck around!


AMZN within pennies of triggering my stop


@ 2:45 pm- I doubled my GLD position-- set the stop to be at break-even for the larger combined position
bACK AT A NET LOSS IN THE ira today as my final positions- stopped out- I apparently overlooked a position in SYLD- sold as it had dropped sharply today.

I'm confused by the price action in GLD- this certainly seems an environment where GLD could catch a bid higher-

I decided I would dbl the position- and set the stop for a net break even if it fails to go higher-

GLD had popped after a big drop and is well below it's long term average-



What are the factors affecting GOLD? The strong $$$- Treasury yields- I have long been aware that Gold is not a good investment- and -just when I think it should be seeing some accumulation, it fails to
find buyers to support that thesis....


At the EOD, I'm down to just 2 IRA swing positions- GLD, AMZN- thought the latter was going to trigger the stop as it declined today-

Critical market performance continues to favor large cap Tech as the mega companies have cash and don't need to go to borrow at high rates-
While virtually everything in an index is below the highs of late 2021 /Jan 2022 , the impressive Rally off the lows in Jan 2023 benefitted those that were prudent to have captured some of the earlier 2021 gains.
For those that simply B&H, the hope to recoup those 2021 gains still seems a distant vision.

The QQQ's need to hold the uptrend here- and the recent swing low.

Rollover in the markets today due to the treasury long term auction forcing yields to be higher.
4
Banks start to report tomorrow-

Tomorrow will be a short trading day-If at all.... Planning a short trip in the kayaks down the local Neuse river- Putting in just below the Falls Lake dam- and get 2 of our granddaughters their opportunity to do some paddling with the flow being very slow-


Final orders for today's trades- Ended up with 2 wins, 2 sm losses when I tried to flip tp the inverse. Today's lucky fill at the Open- and going Long something that was dropping lower- seemed counter intuitive- but that seems to happen often these days- Had I stayed with the original 100 share size order- .....versus dropping it to 50 ....w-c-s-





From LB- W chart on a 15 min showing the Histogram divergence-


























10.12.

[sd]

10.13.23 Big Banks up this am- futures @ 8:30....Mixed. Nas negative- Semi's negative, Q's negative-
S&P in the green along with the Dow-

Nas in the RED- AMZN is close to my Breakeven stop- Influenced by Mark Mahaney- who called AMZN his top pick- likely because it has not rallied along with the other major Tech megas-
So often the Open is a gap down- or Up , just to flush out the longs or shorts- and trigger stops-
Just a 25 share position- AMZN- so I may Risk $1 with a lower stop- below my Break even- Hate getting whipsawed out of a position due to a tight stop , only to see it go higher with me sitting in the dust...
Of course, that mindset is dangerous if it leads to much larger losses-
Reversal in premarket pricing @ 9 am- Now everything is in the green! AMZN is now up! Potentially I may add to the position at the open- with a buy-stop above the low Close made- Risking the new position entry for $1 -$1.25- but keeping the stop at B.E. for the other 25 shares.



GLD position- is up $4.00 premkt. $177.24 - nice gap higher if it holds-

Buying MSFT $331.48 lmt at the Open- stop will be under $328.00 initially-


TFC $29.18 lmt- stop $28.75.


xlf- lower limit $33.23

TQQQ limit orders at the Open.

Tqqq limit filled, but then price pulled back lower- stopped out .
AMZN add filled- stop to $131.40 on 39 shares. dropped the stop to $131.23- under the prior swing low-

GLD position holding the $4 gap up - Nice net gains- Will set a TR stop



I added to the AMZN position with a limit $132.40- Stop for 39 shares @ $131.23- Avg cost of 40 shares is now a bit higher now @ $131.75 average cost- Risking approx $0.52 on the $5,270.00 /40 .
Price action looks less than bullish ....@ 10 am screenshot - Has not penetrated the swing low from yesterday-yet-






Sofi stopped out $ 8.27 stop. loss of $17.
Didn't see a big surge in Banks- but the XLF held above my Limit buy-which I cancelled as price is retracing .
The prior day's swing low $32.90 represents a potential stop -

Bought the XLF as it had pulled back and I was setting a buy-stop and it moved.

[sd]

The week ended up on a low note for most of my swing trades-
Seasonality says October often sees the start of a market that rebounds from the traditionally bearish September-
We had the big run up in Mega tech this year, and that saw the Nasdaq, Semis, and mega QQQ dominating-
It was noted that the so-called magnificant 7 - Tech were responsible for the majority of the gains as their overweighting proportionately in the S$P and also in the QQQ's
swung the indexes massively higher- While the vast majority of stocks failed to participate-

I had added some swing trades - but don't have any illusions - and so I placed stops that demanded that price work in my favor-
BA certainly looked promising earlier this week- With a solidly green R.O.T. bar - The plane mfg has had a number of quality control issues - but aside from Airbus , there is little competition-
I had posted this Daily chart earlier in the week-It looked very promising! and the follow up chart where I had entered, and then raised the stop =
bY RAISING THE STOP ON Price Action that did not support the trade, I actually managed to not hang onto this for a $10.00 loss but sold for a net small gain to get out at B.E. + a few cents.




Lessons I continue to incur: Too many positions, overlooking the obvious details such as this loss in GEHC which should have been much smaller- Just an oversight- or negligence -it comes at a cost.
When I did the "ADD" and doubled the position, I failed to adjust the stop-loss order to include the added 20 shares- Or, I may have initially set a stop using the auto 'Daily' which expired...
Totally overlooked the remaining 20 shares that did not execute- with the raised stop-
When I saw the position was still open and in the Red on 10-11- I sold immediately after 1 glance at the chart-
My initial stop was raised, but remained at just 20 shares.
GEHC was a larger loss for me , as I failed to adjust the stop to a GTC and the Daily stop expired- I held this as a swing trade in the IRA - the premise being this was potentially oversold and would see some higher gains as price made that convincing R.O.T.

So, Price at this level had made a new try at a R.O.T. , The 1st attempt on -8-30 saw a few green bars, but failed to have the fast ema make a cross above the declining 21 ema-
That 1st try had a bullish MACD cross as well as stochastic- but the macd was well below the 0.0 line- and the momo failed to regain a trend reversal.
pRICE DROPPED LOWER, and the downtrend persisted for a few weeks- The MACD made shallower dips on the lower price- signaling a Divergence with the Price action and the indicators reaction becoming less extreme -even though price was dropping significantly lower- While the indicator may suggest a reduction in the momentum velocity- that 1st assert R.O.T. failed at the $70.40 price and declined to a $64.00 low- so that was a large -8.5 % decline while the MACD showed a very shallow cross of the fast/slow line- and the histogram barely dipped below the 0.0. line.



the Hourly


Sole single surviving position in the IRA this week: GLD
The political upheaval in the middle East between Israel responding to the Hamas brutality/ attack and aggression...leads the world concern that this could escalate and become a much wider war-
Iran is seen as a supporter/adviser and IRAN is a military power with Oil shipments massively increasing in recent years as the Biden administration withdrew sanctions- instilled By Trump-
What we don't comprehend as we are all immigrants in a young nation, is the mindset that thousands of years of history has instilled in the Fiefdoms and Nations that may follow a much stronger religious conviction and belief in the righteousness of their own cause....
Israel is preparing a ground offensive into GAZA to reclaim hostages and to wipe out Hamas.
The political rhetoric on major US campuses- Harvard and other large institutions that seemed to permit the propaganda of Hamas as a act of "Freedom of Speech" for the Palestinian cause as justification for the brutal and savage attack on Israel- A mammoth air and land assault on Israel, and approx a 1,000 Isrealis- men,women, and children- gunned down - including hundreds that were at a music peace festival.
Israel is telling the citizens of GAZA to evacuate- but the potential border crossings are closed by Egypt and neighboring countries that do not want the refugees fleeing the upcoming battle and destruction prompted by the Hamas terrorism .
So, Gold is finally showing some buying accumulation . Perhaps it's the political geo-instability that we see at many fronts- including China potentially over a future take-over of Taiwan-
The Energy situation is always a driver - and so Energy pricing is at Risk for a large escalation if supply is disrupted.

This 19 year weekly chart of GLD shows that Gold has been seeing resistance close to the highs set in 2011. Since it doesn't pay any dividends, it isn't a great investment per se-
For example- Viewing both the GLD and S&P over the prior 19 years - GLD had a mammoth run up through 2011- and gave back 50% of it's gains through 2018
It's difficult to make a constant correlation with how GLD will be viewed- compared to the S&P - It lost it's upward momentum in 2011 as the US economy regained it's footing- In 2018 the US Market dropped -20% recovering starting Dec 24 into 2019 - Gold seemed to Rise along with the mkts, .



Cut that time frame down to start in 2016 as a starting point-



If viewed from late 2019- Gld also rose as did the mkt in early 2020, until Covid took the markets lower- GLD dropped along with the markets- but only about -14% off it's high- While the market tanked -30% + from it's high. As the market rallied, GLD did as well until mid year- and declined slightly ahead of the markets taking a slight dip for a few months, before rallying through 2021.
Gld failed to coninue to participate during the market rally in this later period- Inflation had arrived, Fed raised rates and reduced the free market runway by taking away all of the Excess access to essentially Free money. GLD had an early initial gain as a tightened structure was imposed by the Fed- , but Oddly enough, GLD also declined along with the markets-


Shortening up the look back period to just 2 years:
As the Mkts rolled over in Jan 2022, GLD had a surge higher- rose +15% while the markets dropped - 14% from the Dec high. During this economic slde by the markets, GLD also slid down- making a bottom
in Oct 22 after dropping -24% from it's earlier high.
The stock market tried to rally off it's low in Oct 22, and the GLD slowly followed the market's lead-


Looking at the recent 1 year chart-One thing is evident- There are periods when the RED and Blue lines are correlated- moving similarly in the same direction- but not always in lockstep-
So, look at how -over the past year, GLD dropped -3% , as the markets dropped -8%- in OCT 22-
Markets then rose 1st, followed by GLD- Markets declined a bit in December , but GLD continued to rise- Market then rose higher Dec-Jan and peaked- GLD also peaked and both then declined. Both about the same amount -8% +~-
Interestingly, GLD put in a DBL bottom-base and rallied-Mar 10; While the markets took a leg lower before turning higher-on Mar 16-
Also interestingly- GLD exceeded it's prior high up to +21%- while the markets rallied back to the prior +7% in April-
This is where the correlation seemed to reverse- Markets rose higher into june, while the GLD declined into June- and from there, both Mkt and GLD walked hand in hand -particularly this past week, where both started to Rally, with GLD continuing higher as the market dipped the last couple of days.


So, as I review this 1 year chart- I'm actually impressed with what appears to have been GLD's overall performance- it's Beta is 0.18 volatility is .80%- .70% SPY Beta is 1.01 volatility is 1.24%-1.20%
over the past 6 weeks:


which BEGS THE QUESTION- wILL THEY DIVERGE HERE OR REJOIN IN LOCKSTEP? And which will be the direction next week?

I think GLD is presently benefitting from the political mess in Washington, The persistence of inflation, the de valuation of the US debt by credit agencies -potentially- and perhaps the world global uncertainty- That would make me want to try to stay in this present trade- for a greater potential upside-
So, I saw a solid momo gain again that continued on Friday, and none of my trailing stops triggered- so - will I be cutting off my nose with stops too tight and see GLD rise substantially higher?
Tomorrow's almost here, today has been a cold wet day with a fire in the woodstove to take off the chill.
I was disappointed with the lack of market follow thru this past week- Perhaps I'm just looking in the wrong directions?



pRESENTLY, i HAVE THE POSITION DIVIDED UP WITH 4 tRAILING STOPS - Hoping to see a Gap higher open Monday -

[sd]

Monday- OOPS today is Sunday! 10-15-23-




Reading the essentially bearish Colby report:

files.constantcontact.com/a8e632ff001/a9f6a462-44e5-4856-b579-3cc177b6c6d5.pdf?rdr=true

Within the report are numerous charts illustrating the different technicals within different groups- Pointing out the bearish # of stocks that have not participated in gains in the Cap led S&P and Nasdaq.
From the Colby report: Sectors RSI long term -Performance-


Major market leaders - a whole lot of red - those 3 columns- if all are in the green indicates bullish price action over each of the time frames-Closing above their 50,200 sma and their 50 ema above the 200 ema. Markets all in the Red are bearish-
Notice that the GLD rank 39 and the GDX miners-Rank 6 show a Close now above the 50 ema- while previously both below their 200 ema.


Based on the long term Relative strength as measured by the performance of the ETF's price relative to the smas over different periods- Colby uses that information as a ranking system
Again- when all 3 columns are in the green, Price is essentially in an uptrend - when the C/50 sma turns red- Price has made a close below the 50 ema-
Personally, I would like to see a few added columns- perhaps the 10 and 21 smas just to really narrow the group. The recommendation is to consider Buy from 100 to 99, Hold 89-70 etc.
see the Chart table-





A similar list of long, short, and leveraged ETFs- ranked in terms oF RSI performance-






MANY MORE PAGES IN THE REPORT...

cONSUMER SENTIMENT AND EXPECTATIONS -Declining-
Other reports all seem to indicate a continuing slide or softening in consumer spending....

Seems like a walk in the weeds when you hear economists reference the M2-Money supply-
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
The annual growth rate of the Real M2 Money Supply has collapsed like never before,
which is likely to exacerbate an economic downturn. In year 2020, in reaction to the Covid
lockdown economic crisis, the Fed inflated the money supply like never before, creating an
excessive economic and stock market boom. Such currency inflation means more and more
money was chasing the available supply of goods and services, driving up prices and eroding
confidence in the unbacked fiat money that the Fed simply prints by means of keystrokes on its
computers. Next, high inflation forced the Fed to contract the supply of this fiat money in order to
save it from becoming worthless. Rising interest rates and a contracting money supply lead to a
contracting economy, placing severe stress on borrowers with weak financial positions. Debt
defaults will rise further, lenders will grow more fearful and cut back loans, and credit markets
will collapse. Eventually, the Fed will be forced to reinflate the money supply and the cycle will
start over with inflation rising again—only next time inflation starts rising from a higher starting
point. The long-term result is declining purchasing power of the dollar, as seen in the chart,
below

Caveat Emptor: The Colby Report cites information that also promotes it's advertisement for using it's investing services- and thus promotes the bearish point of view that support's it's focus on investor safety .
That promotional aspect noted, the charts and such that are displayed certainly point out some of the weakness that exist in both the charts and rankings/performances of much of the market.
So, we have to ask ourselves- We saw a big rise in the Tech and S&P - because of the overweighting of the Mega cap companies- following a bearish 2022 year decline-
The "discovery" of AI- gave the tech sector a resurgence- which boosted a market rally in the 1st 1/2 of the year-
Now that the Hype of the AI boost has settled down- the markets are relying on the fundamentals of earnings-and, as we have seen- valuations that don't meet expectations get brought down to a much lower valuation -
I had several small failed trades this week in the financial sector- The 1st large cap bank reports this week were bullish- and that led to a short pop higher in the XLF.
I also took a position in TFC - a regional bank that was among the most favored by one CNBC contributor- Neither trade lasted long. .




TSY video on robotics Version of AI

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jh4dZsFHPoc

David Keller- The Final Bar 10.13.23
www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBrKQDRtQP8&list=PLyNJu-3PikrS8Qs5_LwIK4LOpkDp8z-uO&index=1
S&P downtrend target levels



David Keller- Youtube- Marketmisbehavior leading vs lagging indicators-

www.youtube.com/results?search_query=marketmisbehavior

www.youtube.com/watch?v=1LwC4k82_k4

Price divergence -5 min AAPL -New highs, but a lower RSI indicates a slowing of momo.preceding the drop lower.

2nd video from DK- RSI for multiple Time Frames.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=uI5mbcvfjBM

[sd]

10.16.23 Futures mixed @ 6 am - Up waay too early though-

GLD futures down a bit according to Bloomberg... I split the stops on Friday -after seeing GLD gap up nicely and we were headed out to do some family Kayaking.
Will consider where those stops are at- and whether I think the GLD trade has more upside- A pullback on the Friday gap would not be unreasonable- but i want to retain a good portion of the profits as I had just added to the trade Thursday-
I had entered this trade initially with a 20 share position, saw it had trended higher, added 20 again on Thursday- and saw the Open gap up on Friday-
Heading out later in the am, I set 4 different trailing stops -each progressively a bit wider- the intent was to capture a majority of Friday's move as it lost momentum, and potentially reversed.
The momo lasted most of the day, stops were never triggered- However, this Am, the premkt pricing for Gold is down from the Friday close-apparently the weekend did not see Fear factors to push Gold significantly higher-
Premarket pricing does not necessarily tell me where the price will open- The Bid/Ask spread is tight -$0.05 and depending on whether this holds for the next hours until the Open, 1 or more of my TR stops will Trigger-
The average ATR -according to Finviz is $1.79 , so Friday's up move was considerably well beyond ... (+ $5.57) .

Depending on what the bid/ask is as we get to the open, I may cancel one or more of the trailing stops if I know they will trigger lower- Or just let them trigger and see what shakes out- Ideally this would seem to be a prudent time to have a GLD position- but the futures are now in the green @ 7 am...


@ 8:30- Green across the indexes, incl small caps- NVDA in the Red, TSLA in the Red,AAPL in the Red.
HEAD AND SHOULDERS?



AAPL downtrending?





AAPL weak on poor sales in China- AAPD is a short





Took 2 trades at the Open- TSLQ stopped out immediately after filling higher-
AAPD went initially higher at the open, but as Tech rallied, AAPL turned higher. Trade stopped out for a net loss

My widest stop-loss in the GLD trade is still active- Down to just a 10 share position.

Took a position in BX- financial this am, it's working- trailing stop has locked in a gain should it soften any time soon -
Netted a gain- in BX- added a buystop if it resumes it's uptrend.
Made a few in TQQQ, and failed to get the bigger move with too tight a stop-
Flipped to SQQQ- got whipsawed-again with a too tight a stop-
@11 am , Position again in SQQQ with a stop just $0.01 under the day's low as TQQQ moves sideways.

The SQQQ trade initial entry was $18.60 /50 - Price then pulled back and I added 50 @ $18.54- so my avg cost $18.57- as price moved higher- I tightened the position with 2 stops- 50 ea- set a $0.10 TR stop on one and a breakeven on the other- Trade didn't make any further gain, stopped out for an average pennies above my entry cost.

headed out early-We got some walking sneakers at thingy's, came back-markets were rallying- took the pups out to the River trail and did a few miles- got back just in time to see that the Markets had held a broad rally on all fronts! Risk was on and congrats to those that jumped in Early!
At the EOD- holding a partial GLD w/stop and a new XLF long position.




Today's rally- including the small caps was really someone ringing the "RISK-ON" bell- even with Treasury yields moving higher!

[sd]

10-17-23 Futures were in the Red premkt @ 8 am- Retail sales report came in stronger than expected,and last month was also revised higher-
So, the interpretation is the consumer is still spending-and with the consumer still buying- and not curling up in a fetal position with financial fears; inflation will remain steadily higher-

Got to head out-

Didn't do any trading today, attending to some other business- Doesn't look like I missed much with th4 indexes flat- Red.
Got home post the Close just in time for a squirrel to short out the power by tripping out the transformer. Lineman showed up an hour or so after we called and removed the crispy critter with a telescopic fiberglass pole- and power was turned back on.
The Albino deer was in our driveway this am, and spent the day bedded down in a corner of the yard outside the fenced in area. She came back out after we got back, watched from 50' away as I put corn feed out in the side area- Apparently she's getting too accustomed to people, and is wandering out in the mid afternoon...in yards that border the woods...
The retail sales number indicates the consumer is still spending, increasing the debt levels using credit cards- Counter to that, bankruptcies and slow payments are increasing...
Fed speaks tomorrow- The markets will really follow their lead-Leisman thinks the Fed stays on hold with the present rate, with a wait and see -give it some more time- before deciding to potentially tighten one more time if inflation fails to moderate.

Wednesday- Annual Eye exam late am-... Then , a 3 mile walk with the dogs in the pm....Fed talk is usually in the pm...Won't be here to review that-
Any potential trades will likely have Trailing Stops .
This pm watching Bloomberg -
President Biden had planned on a trip to the middle East and intended to meet with some Arabic leaders- who have now pulled out of the conference-
How far will this disruption/conflict go? Anyone's guess-
Energy exposure is in the balance here If the situation expands beyond Israel/Gaza, and no resolution is seen in the near term...
Perhaps time to buy the XOP- or GUSH-

As AI rolls out, it is a learning Curve both for the type of AI programs- as well as researchers and legislators-
The EU is seeking to put in limitations and guidelines-
Some of the Chat /LLLM models can wander wide off the ranch into very dangerous territory as these models can be queried to bypass so-called 'safeguards'

US tightens restrictions for chip companies to sell into China....NVDA adversely affected...

[sd]

Wednesday, 10.18.23 Futures all in the RED-

I'll get to watch about the 1st hour of the Open- and then leave for a vision exam....
Historical results for past October returns are extremely bullish ...



50 year results from the October lows compared to the Dec 31 Close-also impressive overall returns-with one outlier low.



One of the benefits of the LB website is that Jason regularly sums up and analyzes the bigger picture trends.


As he has pointed out -in both his instructional videos and also in the message room- it often pays to not be too anxious to jump in at the 1st
glimmer of a potential upside move- "It's the 2nd Mouse that gets the Cheese" -
So these attempts to rally, may not be the bottom at all- but early enthusiasm and the feeling we're oversold has prompted some buying-
Are we at a place where one could start a partial index position? The recent strength in small caps comparatively is a potential sign that at this mid point in October, we are likely closer to the low of the Month....

The XLF- large cap Financial (position) is holding it's recent slope higher- MY net Cost is $33.63 - and I'm trying to give this a bit of wiggle rm on an investment thesis- However a Close below the fast ema would be reason to raise a tight stop-



Filled market open TZA- sold 1/2 ,trailing 1/2 w stop....

Several Successful trades- TZA stopped out- and I also went long TNA- early -Gook an initial loss, entered again as the MACD accumulation signaled that the basing at the low swing would potentially see a breakout- it did, I added back with some size this time, sold 1/2 in the initial pop to lock in some profit and negate the prior loss. Set a stop just $0.02 below my entry- for the remaining 50 shares- which triggered and filled a penny lower.

@ 10.20 price was making a breakout strong up move- I didn't have a buystop waiting- perhaps as I should have for a lower reentry- Filled 100 $26.74, and set a $0.20 trailing stop (Risk $20.00) I wish I could do an attached order- that would automatically set that stop one wanted on the fill of an order- Something IB allowed on it's orders.

As I'm watching both charts -TZA,TNA together on the screen- I'm viewing both with a 1 min and 2 min time frame.


Back in with some larger size in TZA - Split the position - $0.20 TR stop on 1/2 , man stop on 1/2 @ 1):30 am
So, the TNA trade sees a -$ 18.75 loss, and presently the TZA trade shows a net +$34.99 gain @ 10:42-
Can't determine if this is going to be one of those sideways ranging days versus trending- Approaching the prior AM highs here- so some resistance may be seen @ $33.30





@ 10:48 am- position for 100 shares intact- Saw a gap open down on the last bar-
This preceded my stops starting to trigger @ 11:00


As I was posting, price pulled back deeper and triggered both my manual stop and one TR stop $33.25;$33.21 and left my final 50 stop intact @ $0.20 presently will trigger at $33.18


What worked on this last trades in TZA- was adding to the position as price pulled back - and saw that position then turn back higher- With size increasing my share allotment to 100 shares- both net profits and losses can potentially be larger-


My final Trailing stop filled 11:18 $33.24


I likely won't take another long entry- before I have to head out-

Notice that today's gap up high OPEN has not been Tested onthe pullbacks/volatility-
The Open $32.57 - had a low just $32.53- Just $0.04
Something I've been considering is to Buy the Open and set a $0.10 stop immediately-
So, on a 100 share entry, the Risk would be $10.00 .
I didn't enter today with that large a position- initially just 50 shares- but did transition later into the higher position size-
At this point- It'
s a loss of - $18.65 in TNA, a Win of + $41.52 in the TZA trades-

Eventuially I'd like to size up- and get trading to gain $100 profit on a day. But I realize this day trading can be very challenging to get the direction dialed in. Market can Whipsaw quickly, so I'll be content to continue the path of "Student"


Here's the downside of taking profits and tight stops-
I'm out of the GLD position as of last week- netting some gains- but those gains potentially could have been larger, had I held part of the position- Not chasing it here today- and my XLF position has a big red bar and looks bearishly below the daily fast ema- May have to take a loss on it this pm if it fails to move higher before the Close.


Got back this 3 pm to see markets all down-
Sold my XLF position near it's lows today @ 3:30- net $57 loss on the 100 share position. tza
Ahhh- I forgot- I still had 10 shares in GLD- that sold today @ 10:47 $180.28 so that wider stop netted a larger gain


Took 3 shorts here at the Close- TSLQ,AAPD,SARK
Yields are up- that's bearish for stocks-means bonds are lower...

Tsla report- after hours- Missed on both top and bottom line, missed margin expectations- But as it initially dipped lower, it recovered during the conference call- apparently giving investors some reassurance- So, I'll have to unload TSLQ if the buying holds up in TSLA at tomorrow's Open- I took a small 25 share position in TSLQ-, 50 in SARK, and 50 in AAPD.

[sd]

10-19-2023 Futures in the green
Shorted TSLA thru TSLQ yesterday just ahead of the earnings after hours- Tsla disappointed on margins, sales- and a slowing market-this is like the 3rd qtr that TSLA has failed to meet expectations- Also higher challenges- likely the Chinese mfgs....Tsla truck -Musk gave somewhat muted guidance on it's release potentially late this quarter. Musk also cited the high interest rates as slowing demand.... TSLA down pre Open- TSLQ will be up.
Also put on small shorts in AAPD,SARK.
NFLX had a substantial beat - I will take a small position at the open.

Gold position was closed yesterday- will look to a daytrade today- but

TSLQ hit my trailing stop- I also added to the small position at the Open since I had a nice profit cushion-
Gave Both positions TR stops which triggered...
SARK had a nice gap higher open - I'm giving it some room to run with a $0.30 TR stop at the opening range- As I was setting the TR stop, Price dipped lower-so my $0.30 TR stop actually initiated at $41.81- and my cost was $41.86 - As I write this and checked- stop is now above my entry cost @ $41.96.

Now @10 am- Markets are relatively flat- Tech trying to hold onto a gain-

Took a small 2 share position in NFLX because it had a Gap Open +$50 on an earnings beat. Potential for a $20 loss as it made a swing low- and I set a stop just a bit below that- I'll adjust this to a wider trailing stop to get to Break even if Price manages to move decently higher-



I re entered TSLQ - buying 50 $ 35.86 @ 10:18- @ 10:30, price has risen with a gap and is above $36.00-
Stop is now increased to my entry cost-Break even .
Note that on this 3 minute chart- The MACD responded to the gap by a huge high in the histogram and MACD, followed by a pullback slowing in price, the Macd made a downside cross- but is still well above the 0.0 line
My re entry was from the consolidation and bar move higher- since price followed with a small gap and push to a new high, I elected to raise the stop to cover my entry cost- as opposed to leaving it below that swing pullback $35.67 - which was $0.20 below my entry- Simply protecting the net profits already locked in .
I thought I had a wide enough Trailing stop on the entry at the Open




@ 11 am, Going out with the doges to the River walk for their (our) exercise - typically 3 miles .
TSLQ re entry trade stops are split- 25 shares with a fixed stop that is under the prior swing low and yet above my entry cost- and a $0.20 TR stop

AAPL short trade is flat -AAPD @ 11:00



When we returned this pm, the TSLQ had stopped out and added some additional net $$$ gains-
Didn't chase it further- and added back AAPD near the Close-
Will consider a re entry in TSLQ tomorrow- gap here is too wide to add more at today's close



10 Yr yield Closes above +5% ! Bearish for stocks! 1ST TIME SINCE 2007!
Decent gains today- carrying a couple of NFLX shares on the big gap up on a massive earnings beat- I thought the trade would get some higher traction- but it held in a relatively tight range-


Tom Bowley -Options Expiration tomorrow!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=24hT7RtAEj8

Bowley claims that next week is historically the worst week of the year....-What about the so called Upswing???October nada?
Bowley claims the last Friday in October begins the historically bullish best period in the year- 62/73 stocks see gains until the end of the year.

Note- I had a short on AAPL using AAPD with a very tight stop- Triggered this am.....

I failed to re enter the GLD trsade- and it has gone directly higher.




fROM THE lb BOARD DISCUSSION IN tsla:
DAILY CHARTS



wAITING ON Pres. Biden @ 8 pm

[sd]

10.20.23
Futures down-and RED- Jason @ LB in the pm observations showed how many market sectors continue to weaken and break lower-

IBD citing the deterioration of prior stock leaders.

www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/sp500-six-of-the-years-best-stocks-are-now-crashing-including-tesla/?refcode=MarketPrepAM-10202023-3-DA-2:10:2023:4Q:NewsLetter:Email:MarketPrepAM-10202023:na:na:na:na:20:05:3:DA:2&j=2542354&sfmc_sub=93176118&l=222_HTML&u=36016933&mid=100016628&jb=22001


From the Morning show with JCParets.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=vkMbE2te5Z8
Seasonality : In pre election years :





Choppy start-Mixed price action- Long SLV at the Open.



The SLV trade is a defensive trade - Will try to hold this for a target move up to the Trend line- potentially it could go higher- if GLD continues it's upmove- Unfortunately, I failed to make a re entry in GLD - could have seen a much larger gain



SLV trade made a basing/sideways consolidation- I meant to ADD as soon as price moved higher- but it moved and my add was a bit slow .
I'll use the low of the basing- with a trailing stop initially on the 2nd entry-
I modified that stop to be $0.20 - and present sell would be triggered at $21.48- which was just below the swing low 10:15 +/-.


SPY Heading towards the major support level $420- and is below the 200 ema today-
IF that lower Close occurs., it has to throw cold water on the Bulls and the Technicians that have determined this as an important level.



FRom the LB Board -Beast Chart



What's important to recognize- Is that the majority of the market's major companies- inside the S&P 500 growth ETF- as seen in the Equal Weight chart-RSP- is that the majority are underwater-and well below the 200 ema- Only the S&P 500 Cap weighted index- SPY- and the Nas 100 cap wt have a few mega caps that have kept those indexes growing- over the course of the year-
Big tech reports next week.







vIEWING THE =




Understanding when the Tide is outgoing, and doesn't support trying to get bullish because you are an Optimist- is a prudent way to save your $$$$

Also, Realizing that stocks follow the business cycle outlined by Ray Dalio - and there are opportunities if one is on the rising side of the cycle Long- but will be a losing position on the downturn side- of the market cycle-

HUBRIS- something we all likely are prone to as Human beings that aspire to do more, be more ...
www.thecollector.com/greek-heroes-hubris/