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Post by sd on Sept 25, 2023 7:53:34 GMT -5
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Post by sd on Sept 26, 2023 7:27:49 GMT -5
9.26.23 Markets well into the Red zone premarket-.
Energy watchers think Oil likely goes to 100 - due to Saudis/OPEC keeping production RESTRAINED- This is also due to the Biden restrictions on Oil and gas drilling in the US- making us dependent on foreign oil....
dOESN'T LOOK LIKE THE BOTTOM IS IN HERE- PRIOR LOW $354.00
Fascinating- the volatility again off the open- 2 trades this am in TZA- Choppy and sloppy.
Did add AAPD -AAPL short on the break higher.
Missed trying to time the entry anywhere today- watching the swings- Took a couple of trades in TZA, and had 2 wins, 1 loss for net 0.0 .
Tried a long in TQQQ - that rolled over - net loss there -$5.
A buy stop I had set earlier filled at $30.30 price went sideways, moved up and I added to the position as it broke above $30.40 -
I raised my stop to above my 1st entry, and below this 2nd entry for a very minor loss if it does not get any momo here- Stop is $30.34
Raised split stops including using a $0.06 trailing stop that triggered as price pulled back from it's $31.61 high.@ $31.57 My 2 remaining stop orders filled $31.51;$31.52.
Here at Mid day -Price stays within the range of the 1st 30 minutes . in TZA.
I had a buy-stop fill but price in SQQQ was so close to the high, as it moved up on the bar, I set a sop at the entry- triggered, dropped a bit, went higher, dropped immediately.
In this type of market, I missed the big trending move after the Open decided on a direction-
Trying to trade here is tough for a newbie like myself - trying to refine a strategy for trading for pennies needs to be an astute entry - and size - to make it other than an amusing way to spend the day-
AMZN stopped out on me- Had just taken a swing position, but the FTC lawsuit helped drop this today.
The SQQQ sample experiment- following a breakeven on the higher earlier breakout, watched to see where a potential reentry may show up-
Price was rejected at the attempt to make a new high- These pullbacks are getting progressively relatively shallow-
I totally recognized this entry was premature-even on the 1 minute chart- with a couple of potential u turn hooks showing in the STO,CCI, but the Macd and histogram are far from making a potential up cross.
wHAT FOLLOWED- TRADE immediately went lower - then TRIED TO GO HIGHER, SEVERAL BARS, BUT THEN FAILED AND DROPPED LOWER-
So, the tight stop and only a 50 share size , was prudent- the entry was discretionary-
So, a note is that the stochastic can usually make a turn ahead of everything else- The MACD histogram- as it makes smaller ticks heading back to the 0.0 line is a graphic representation of the line action of the MACD- a histogram almost at the 0.0 line means the macd cross is close.
At mid day I have small gains on the SARK and AAPD, and the materials positions-MLM,VMC,; CRH . Relate to those swings that are selling-
I have difficulty to be an investor- for example - the steel industry should be booming because of all the infrastructure funding that already is in place-
bUT LOOK AT THE SWINGS made in Price this year -Presently $20 below the August highs, but downtrending on the daily the month of September
NUE is supposed to be a terrific leader in the steel industry - Similarly, the materials-aggregate companies -MLM,VMC are going to be a big beneficiary of new construction, new roads.
It looked like NUE was attempting a move higher- but pauses in a downtrend are anyone's bet.
Swing positions are close to hitting stops- Down -$200 in the IRA on the recent purchases made- Stops are based on yesterday's lows- and just a tad below.
SDS position trending higher.
SARK TRENDING HIGHER
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Post by sd on Sept 26, 2023 17:55:55 GMT -5
From WWW.Leavittbrothers.com- Offers a free 2 week trial-
Message board posts regarding Prof D's approach to initiating multiple trades based on interpretation of the cross signals.
He also refers to the K&C Kiss & cross on the MACD- illustrated by Jason in his Masterclass... He's applied this approach for over a decade in his trading-
And only recently retired ....
Prof D has altered his approach in this choppy market - I see he now takes profits quicker on weakness- something he would hold through a few months ago when prices were in uptrends- as long as it held above his entry...And- he also will use SQQQ and TQQQ- where his preference is to take the Long side...
fOR PERSPECTIVE- the 1 hour chart tells me that the trend is heading to a new recent low.- There's a divergence in the MACD over the past 3 days- with the MACD severely low and well below the 0.0 line- and after the gap down on 9-21 followed by a reaction higher 9-22- that caused the MACD to make an upside cross- and yet, price has since gone lower, but the MACD has moved up- counter to what price is doing.
Why is this? The macd responds to price compared to how far it's moving averages are apart- Notice the wide gap between the macd black line and the slow red line-
Yes, this is a 'faster' macd setting than the typical 12-26-9. included both on this chart- The 12-16-9 signals approx faster by 1-2 histogram bars.
As the downward price momentum is slowing, the faster moving averages are coming back closer to the slower moving average-
Often Divergences in indicators compared to price action foretell a slowing of the momentum and the probability of a trend /momo/change will occur.
This can be seen both in downtrends and uptrends.
Today, Prof D noted the crossover signal on the MACD but cautiously did not get in- due to the strength of the downward momentum of late and sloppy price action?
That initial MACD cross signal failed to see a R.O.T. - He highlights his actual entry once price had pulled back and made a dbl bottom, moved higher-
What prompted his entry? I have seen him often front run the actual MACD cross- buying at the near bottom - but that was several months ago.
Well illustrated here is the 'Kiss'- of the MACD - Price was lower, MACD fast line comes down Close to almost touching the slow line- and then moves up as a higher bullish bar follows.
He also noted the upturn in the stochastic that coincided-
What was ideal about taking an entry as this price action unfolded, is the relatively close entry to the lows of the day- His entry is on the 5 minute 2nd green bar.
His entry $34.75~ approx. Entry stop $34.64 - Risk of $0.11 . He could have dropped that below the swing low $34.60 - but kept that $0.04 higher.
tHAT ENTRY became a loss as Price retraced and took out the Stop.
That pullback in Price again saw the MACD come close to make a drop to wards the slow line .
Price not only tested the prior lows, but dropped just $0.01 lower ,before moving back higher- Prof D took that up move off the low to make an entry before that bullish bar closed higher.
The stochastic had just made an initial turn up . Again, the stop was not set below the low swing lows, but about $0.10 below the entry versus $0.14 a stop under the swing low would require.
noted "All of that noted, this is a countertrend trade attempt and can easily fail (thus the tight stop). On a countertrend daytrade I wlll typically exit after one Impulse and not look for a three stage move. "
The fact that Prof D and a few others on the site post their trades- and provide their own takes- Different approaches, all seeking the same result- make a profitable trade...
follow up: other members -different approaches. interact with each other frequently :
wHAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT THE lb SITE- There are a few traders there for over a decade... and each has a different style- their own approach-
I personally favor Devoid's approach , as it is replicable and not too nuanced. However, as can be seen, D has modified his approach to adapt to the new market volatility.
So, if you are here, reading this, give the LB website a look and a trial- You may find what you are looking for...
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Post by sd on Sept 27, 2023 7:58:57 GMT -5
9.27.23 Futures got some green - oversold bounce only I suspect.
aDDED MORE ENERGY/NAT GAS ON TODAY'S MARKET- MOVE-
NUE FINALLY SHOWING SOME LIFE
AAPD - just bought yesterday- on it's upmove-
raised my stop to under today's low as Tech rebounds today
The FCG entry yesterday was based on the recent upturn off the $25 low. I got in at the Close , with an entry stop below the swing low.
Not a large Risk%, but with today's gap up and move initially higher- I disagreeumption is that this will trend further this week, with my stop now adjusted up to my entry cost.
TSLA gets another downgrade - I would have thought -like DAN Nathan- that TSLA would have benefitted from the UAW strike since TSLA is not Unionized.
That gives Musk a significant advantage because he pays substantially less than the UAW gets-
However, it may be that the publicity around the UAW finally getting pay increases will spread to the TSLA employees-
TSLA is presently back at the $242 level- Day 3 . Odd that it did not participate in today's Tech pop- which looks to be fading post 10 am....
I went short -again- using TSLQ.
fOCUSED THIS AM ON SWING POSITIONS- not taking time to follow potential daytrade entries.
Industrials have been declining- XLI is the Sector ETF- Seeing a slight bounce today from yesterday's lows.
tOOK A starting position on this attempted R.O.T. - but will set a tight stop under the swing low....
I dbld my ROK position today, and started positions in CMI and CAT based on their recent basing-
Stops will be started under the base- but raised if we don't get any follow through-
This upside try today may not be nothing more than an attempt to reverse the trend- and we're still in September-
However, I've held a large % in Cash and stepping a toe in here with some diversifying. -
Looks like the initial pop in the markets is fading mid morning.
CMI- INDUSTRIAL- DIESEL ENGINES/GENERATORS
CAT- INDUSTRIAL EQUIPMENT- UNDER PRESSURE BY CHINA'S RECESSION,
BUT WILL BENEFIT FROM THE US INFRASTRUCTURE- BUT WILL THAT SUPPORT THIS VALUATION?
STOP UNDER THE SWING LOW - RELATIVELY SMALL RISK ON THIS ENTRY.
eNERGY POSITIONS WORKING:
FCG
CTRA- NAT GAS
NICE POP, GOT A entry as it pulled back initially off the open
100 share position- sold 25 as it pauses at mid day- raised my stop on 75 to my cost of entry with a $0.40 trailing stop .
Only recently started using TR Stops in some trades- Useful when you have too many positions open.
Mid day- Rally fizzled-
loss in MGK- and will tighten on weakness.
Taking profits-UBER selling on the red bar pullback.
A lot of rolling over - tightening stops on the lack of upside momentum.
1 pm- Energy working, AAPL short,TSLA short working .
With the Uturn for many of the positions - I'm using the swing low of today by which to set a stop just below-
My expectations that we'd see a stronger rebound are not being met by price.
Decent rise in my TSLQ position - raised a stop to net profits if it pulls back from this level.
I've held URA previously, but just tried a entry today that in initially opened up bullishly-
I failed to set a stop when I made the entry- and allowed this to go below yesterday's base lows- the logical place for a stop.
I'll be lowing about $1 a share if this stop is triggered.
Fortunately, the energy wins counter , for net ending the day in the green-
I had a solid gain in SARK, but today's gap lower open took that away. I cannot be willing to give positions too much leeway- but these market opens often flip and turn in the other direction- Today being a perfect example...
Amazing reversal higher in tech- Long QQQ, MGK,AVUV -amzn
This intraday flip flop,flip is worth taking a flyer on and holding ....
Today's lows will be the stop - Potentially this price action sees a pop on the open tomorrow versus a gap down-
You tube video by Jason- Market breadth improving
www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJtwF5oxOrA
David Keller- The Final BAR: Good overview of the day's performance.- We're not yet at a capitulation lower buy point.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=OrMA7klovXY
Worth while to get other's perspectives- So, my take away is that -according to David Keller- we may see a small bear market rally here- but we have further to go to see true Capitulation- Just that big flush of selling....So, if today's last hours rally shows upside tomorrow- it's not likely coming off a real bottom.
Tomorrow will be an unknown- until the futures at least indicate a possible directional start- Today was a bullish start, that faded, and ended up being a rally attempt- Talk about a Yo-YO day!
Today I was focused primarily on monitoring swing positions, but I did my usual setups premarket across the 6 3x etfs- with both potential limit Buys and also Sell orders-
In this case- which has occurred 1 other time- I had set a low limit Buy for SOXL @ 17 - well below the close yesterday- that actually ended up filling - while I was off buying some swing positions.
It was late afternoon when I went to view my holdings I found i had purchased SOXL as it had made a large decline- followed by a rally and I set a stop to sell to lock in the $0.68 gain My limit order didn't catch the Low, but I wasn't aware my order had filled- I need to see if I can get a sound alert on trades in TD ....I ended up aware that the position had filled in the PM and saw that I had a very respectable gain in the account- Viewed the chart and set a stop under the price as it was declining- Locked in a very respectable gain- of $.68 just by happenstance..
I've recommended the LB website here, as it has a number of traders that actually trade real $Money- and Prof D has the approach that I am most capable of following- if I can stay focused.
He trades a very large position size- so even small winning moves can add up. And, he frequently posts his trades a few minutes after he has made them . His credibility cannot be doubted- as he shows both his winning and losing trades...with the early entries- and eventually the sells/stops.
Today he had both winning Long and Short trades- and made a large net win over those trades- with SIZE: Notice the entries and stops/exits
Regarding the MACD signal:
BEAST:
dEVOID tqqq ENTRY
bEAST GIVING EXAMPLES
geo- COMBINING FORKS &
aBOVE CHART EXAMPLES ARE COPIED FROM WWW.LEAVITTBROTHERS.COM
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Post by sd on Sept 28, 2023 6:18:13 GMT -5
9-28-23 Futures mixed- Nas in the RED with a couple of hours to go before the open.
We're almost at October-Seasonality has indeed ruled in September- Bounce yesterday may fizzle today, or be the signs of a bear market rally attempt starting-
The gov't shutdown is likely- A temporary compromise may be the best we can expect- We continue to see this fracture in our political houses to be able to come to a consensus.
If the gov't shut down indeed occurs, Congress should be penalized as well - No pay checks, and perhaps a penalty in their pay going forward- A 2% loss per week out of all future paychecks should be an incentive for them to get to a resolution. MOODY's rating agency has said this will further degrade the US rating if it comes to pass- Ultimately, a rating downgrade means the US is not as strong an economic fort the world has looked to...and it's Debt- treasury bonds-
I'll be keeping an eye on the futures and the premarket bids on positions I own- The amount of volatility -and directional shift that occurs during the Open is absolutely hard to judge-
For Example- I set up the 6ea 3x ETFS- Both long and short Semis, Tech, Small caps
SOXL is the 3x Long semi ETF for the SMH index. SOXS is it's inverse 3x that shorts semis. They move opposite of each other.
MY premarket set up is to have a limit order ready to buy 50 shares of each - I set the Limit order well below the bid-ask price and will adjust the limit to buy based on the actual price action at the open if I'm wanting to Buy one of these 6 funds - I may change the order from a limit to a market buy- but the orders are all 'ready' on the order page, and can be adjusted there-
I saw that SOXL - which had a prior day low @ $17- and was bid to open up- so I set a wide $17 limit on SOXL-well below the bid/ask pre market. which I did not expect to fill.
It filled,@ 1:40 ~$17 and I was unaware that it had- as I was managing swing positions. As I came back in the pm to view the Roth account position page, just before the Close I saw that the position had filled, gone higher and was in the process of pulling back-I set a stop a bit below the declining price- which triggered $17.68 the closing price.
While the trend has been down for Soxl, there are times when it offers an opportunity for a day trade- SOXS as well.
The Daily chart for perspective :
Here's the 5 min chart-Price made a substantially higher Open- but failed to get further traction. Price broke lower @ 11:30 , trended down with a 1st try to Reverse the downtrend- that failed and went still lower- Price broke down through $17- triggered my limit order, ;went down to $16.89, and that bar closed back above $17. That Signaled for a Reversal of Trend (R.O.T.). Purely lucky that it didn't continue lower-
While this worked out in my favor, since it was an unintended order that filled-I didn't allow enough room in the limit order- Nice gain with no stress of watching - but
this is the 2nd time I've had this happen- Most of my orders are significantly out of the price range..
Jobless claims in- Fewer than expected -
Futures now in the green @ 8:30
Today I will be tracking swing positions taken - I'm optimistic we get a bounce higher-
i REENTERED amzn ...on the bullish Close
Pre market bid/ask-
FCG green + $0.28
AMZN -$1.60
CTRA +0.07
GEHC +0.42
MGK -$0.08
NUE +$0.17
QQQ -$0.85
RIG- ---
URA +0.28
VMC -$0.18
AAPD +0.12
Took another position, but a bit late in the TSLA short - TSLQ-
post 10 am it made the Reversal of Trend, and I came late to view this- I set a buy-stop above the green bar high at that moment $33.71 which filled- I gave it an initial Trailing stop of $0.15 as I cannot watch this -
Adjusted stops on swing trades this am after the open- tightening - added more FCG - we'll see if it can get some more upside-
Also added Uranium positions & More URA.
just as I posted this 10:20 am- TSLQ stopped out $33.74 with the $0.15 tr stp.
Out for the day -green in the accounts! Stops in place
EOD- Ended in the Green ! My accounts and the markets!
I should leave early more often! No micro management-
David Keller: The Final BAr recaps todays action : Watch this for an overview-big picture -
Jason Leavitt also relies on the AD line to get that view of the underlying conditions- below 50% is bearish-
i.imgur.com/TpcdxQh.png
This likely will prove to be just a bear market rally this week- I'll take steps to continue to raise stops-
Uranium trades didn't perform well today- and I had several positions stop out right at the open- AMZN, 1/2 URA,
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Post by sd on Sept 28, 2023 18:44:53 GMT -5
Tomorrow- 9.28.23 - will be a short trading day-
We're going to a local animal rescue to find a new pup to replace our 15 year Raider - a void and emptiness in the house without his presence.
Tomorrow- Friday is here- futures are up!
Lot of inspiration for taking better trades from WWW.Leavittbrothers.com. Free trial there- give it a shot.
While different folks have different approaches- One of the ardent Fib/fork advocates- GEO -has recently been studying and posting charts with elements from
another traders' approach- and is illustrating the stochastic,RSI, and MACD as signals- Looks identical to Prof D's - but that's fine-
Timing an entry on the fast 5 minute chart - I don't know if he held this for a swing and +11% gain -in 2 days , but this example is the SOXL 3x of the Semis.
Notice the divergence in the MACD compared to the Price action- This is often a signal that a trend change is forthcoming- Price made a lower swing low
while the Macd turned higher- - Visually, this is evidenced by the very wide gap between the 2 emas becoming much tighter after that 1st attempt to move higher-
Prof D has noted - as I have- that often a 1st 'ASSERT ' (pROF d'S TERM) is the 1st try for a R.O.T (reversal of the trend)
This can be seen on all time frames- start looking for it, and see if your trade is performing in alignment with the MACD-
For swing positions- a longer time frame is required- perhaps the 2 Hour -4 hr- daily- The longer the time frame- the less reactive are the indicators-
combine that with some moving averages- to see whether this MACD will be a good match .....
45 minutes to go, Plenty of Green holding up....
Time to check pre mkt pricing on swings, set up for some potential buys .
My best wins this month- are the dividend payments from the fixed CD's - with 75% of my accts in them- a no-brainer as we face higher rates, and a potential recession in 2024-
Nice gap up ROK
Energy positions in the RED today- dragging on the account.
QQQ's nice pop- changed to a $1 Trailing stop to capture the momo. Swing position
I use AVUV- small cap value fund- as it was an outperformer in the small cap group previously-
Small caps are under serious pressure in this rising rate environment-
Setting a stop under yesterdays swing lows on this recent swing entry- If price moves higher today and doesn't stop out, I'll adjust the fixed stop to a trailing stop -if it gets to go higher today- As we've often seen, the Open gets a deceptive pop- and then volatility comes in-
I've taken a couple of losing tries in AMZN- Ultimately this is a winning company- even if the FTC gets it to break up/fines it- However, I'm not willing to simply be a Holder- because the trend is lower -
Today's pop on the Open - not chasing it here. wHILE THE Price action continued to make attempts to move higher- and you get signals on the MACD on the faster time frame (1 Hr) , the dominance of the momentum of the downtrend prevails- Pointing out that an indicator signal needs to be viewed in the context of the dominant trend- which was clearly in decline- I did not take a position in AMZN yesterday, and so did not see the benefit of today's gap higher- which looks promising as it includes a cross up of the ema's - I may give this a potential small entry based on today's price action.
Notice the divergence with the MACD making a lower low while Price dropped lower ...I stopped out on yesterdays making a lower low at the open.
OUT to potentially get our new Pup!
Got our "new" pup- from the Saving Grace rescue - He's a 1 yr + Spaniel mix -Male- that had been adopted and returned after 4 months- Trying to get our 8 year old Chihuahua to get used to his energy- Prior owners apparently kept him in a crate in the garage at night.... and he 'nipped' at the owner while trying to put him in the crate- Who wants to spend the night in a garage- alone -anyways?
He's been up for adoption for 3+ months- and LOLO decided immediately to take him, and didn't want to look at any other potential adoptees-
He's really fast, and off the leash, he zooms around our fenced in yard, responds to some basic commands, but is intent on getting the solitary ChihuaHUA TO Play with him ....
Missed the rest of the day in the market- but I didn't miss much- Uninspiring end to the Week, and this doesn't look like much of a rally.
The Gov't shutdown is ridiculous- Don't pay a single member until this is resolved - and why put us in this predicament to begin with? It's politicians playing politics with little regard for those potentially impacted.
Fire the bunch and get a congress that can work for the benefit of the Country- and it's citizens-
Trump had a 35 day shutdown-
Realistically, we have put ourselves in an untenable fiscal situation due to Covid promotions and giveaways- and also with the infrastructure package- Biden fought the energy industry and increased costs for the consumers here as an end result- all show and trying to promote the 'Green'Agenda. Interesting that several dozen ESG ETFs have folded in the last year...
What was once politically expedient, is coming under greater scrutiny of the reality of the high costs that will come with the green transition- that the vast majority of Americans are still struggling to try to get ahead in the American Dream...
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Post by sd on Sept 30, 2023 7:07:45 GMT -5
He's Frisky! So we named him FRISCO
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Post by sd on Sept 30, 2023 7:46:38 GMT -5
dAN nATHAN, gUY aDAMI, dANNY mOSES- pODCAST - gIVE IT A LISTEN .
www.youtube.com/watch?v=GeZrbyk9Tzk
fROM gEO @ tHE lb WEBSITE-
He entered as price had retraced to the .941 (red box area) , and had a sharp gap higher on the following Open which promptly reversed- He didn't take the gain - and saw the trade completely reverse quickly-
This seems to be a common trend in the market at the Open recently- What-or WHO - is setting these higher Bid/Ask that open with a gap higher- or lower- and almost immediately sees a Reversal of Trend.
This would be an ideal situation to have a trailing stop in place on part of the position, and a stop-loss -perhaps at Break even -if you think you got in at a good entry level
CATALYST,SETUP,TRADE-
SMB video talks about a trader's application to the firm- and discusses their criteria for hiring .
While I have no illusions- viewing trading videos from structured winning traders can only help us retail part time traders to improve our discipline.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrGFJ_XF9-Y
TICKER SYMBOL YOU - NVDA,AMD,INTC -
just released video comparing the chip mfg's processes and possible potential
www.youtube.com/watch?v=09vgrTwyD9E
MSFT- Co-Pilot - The technology evolution at a pace we need to be aware of...Released on September 26 in Windows 11
The technology advances- are amazing....Those that are early adopters of this technology will have a distinct advantage in productivity- and time saved
www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvlvuNCk8Ds
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Post by sd on Oct 2, 2023 8:13:30 GMT -5
10.2.23 futures all in the RED pre mkt.
Re-entry set a higher buy-stop as it declined
tHE $0.20 tr STOP FILLED AS i WAS TAKING THE SCREENSHOT : nETTED A GAIN
i SET A higher buy-stop for a potential reentry on a continuation of the uptrend- Price is pulling back, I may shoot for an entry at a lower cost -Will watch for the hook
Trade 3 stops out on 2 tighter trailing stops- I had set a buystop above today's earlier highs $31.90 and I failed to get the reentry as price pushed down to a red bar that saw an immediate reversal higher- which took out my buy-stop- Price then topped @ $31.96 - I had a $0.12 and $0.15 Tr Stop attached-
tRADE 4
tRADE 4 STOPPED OUT AS WELL- Trade 5 - is on as price is moving higher- with a tight trailing stop $0.08 as we have to leave and take the Pup Frisco back for his release check up
mARKET INTERNALS DECLINING
gOT BACK THIS 1 PM- MY energy swings in URA making lower lows- will stop out if they don't bounce-
TSLQ similarly heading lower after an initial move higher.
The TZA trend had a sharp decline while we were out, and rallied higher this pm. I missed this move, won't be chasing this narrow channel-
10 YR Yield hits 4.7%- ! Not good....Bond market is suggesting we are on an unsustainable path with our increasing debt-
SECTOR PERFORMANCE IS ALL DECLINES -Notice this is not only just 1 week-
I cannot allow myself to hold during large $$$$ pullbacks- Simply have only a few stocks for swings with stops under today's lows-
I was correct in targeting the small cap short - Small caps will be the most vulnerable- and down
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Post by sd on Oct 3, 2023 7:06:28 GMT -5
10-3-2023 Futures solidly Red pre market- Treasury yields moving up again!
2 yr +5.123% inversion continues- 10 yr 4.73%
Emily Roland- on CNBC this am sees this Drop in treasuries , higher yields as a significant signal of harsher times ahead- Bond markets pricing for a recession.
She suggests that the unemployment rate rising will be one of the final signals that we are close to a base low....and I think she suggested that corporate bonds are a source of return?
So, looking at the HYG-
The distributions if held from the start of this year:
chart :
It looks like the Distributions add up to over $3 YTD- plus a net return if bought on the 1st day of the year- @ $70.90 - but look at those volatility-swings. Presently in a downtrend-- Why try for this when you can get a net better Reward/Risk with a fixed CD for that portion of one's holdings?
almost showtime- 15 minutes to go, futures still in the red.
TZA PREMARKET UP $0.68 $33.04 Premarket pricing doesn't always hold- but this is a significantly higher open..
TZA 2nd trade working - nice gains
tza Tight trailing stops trigger- nice net gains, but price then rebounds and goes higher-making a new leg up - However, the MACD is still indicating a divergence with price- so I'll watch this as it evolves.
Divergence in the MACD as price goes higher yet- histogram still below the 0.0 Line
Price grinds higher- histogram finally ticks up -
TZA trending higher- finally MACD making a 0.0 line cross - but I'll sit this out as opposed to trying to enter at this extended a move this late in the AM. Will expect a pullback retrace to occur-
I couldn't have held the wide swings in the prior defined range...I potentially- w-c-s- could have allowed the earlier entry to have a partial wider stop- but that would have triggered in the range pullback to $33.52.
One way to review the earlier Divergence is that the price pullback -red bar- $33.52 - satisfied the divergence as it was followed by a few bars responding immediately higher- trying to make a new high- but dropped back inside the range lines. @ 10:56 this most recent upleg is seeing the 1 min MACD and histogram dropping below the 0.0 line.
cAME BACK INSIDE this pm,,, tried a 11st assert on the 1 minute that immediately reversed - Technically, this was a good entry as price started to move up
The follow up to the TZA entry based on the early signal on the 1 minute time frame -
The Early signal was indeed valid- Macd And a stochastic upside cross- I wasn't willing to set a stop under the swing low- that would have been $33.85 ~- and I stopped out $##.98, $33.92 (because I didn't get my stop raised quick enough-)
Risking MORE to try to get proven correct is a dangerous
Today's notable events-
Sam Bankman Fried- Pleads Not guilty- and the Jury selection is underway. No brainer- he's a fraudster and should get treated and sentenced accordingly- scammed Millions from the believers....
House Speaker- Kevin McCarthy gets a No vote- and is Ousted as Speaker- Says he will not try again for the role-
Time for the Republicans to get their act together- or get out of the way for a new common sense party....JMHO.
Sorry Trump- you had my support until you played your supporters on Jan 6- and attempted a 'coup' on the Election results- Scary scenario to try to usurp the process that has been in place ....successfully..for all past elections.
Where is the Ronald Reagan of this century???
Enough of politics for a moment. Here's a chart of the S&P daily for the 2023 YTD-
If you've held the index- since the start of the year- you still have a nice gain that exceeds the average annual gain -What are you doing to retain that gain?
The market rally this year has primarily been in the Mega cap Tech sector- and the majority
of stocks are in declines-
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Post by sd on Oct 4, 2023 7:47:52 GMT -5
10.4.23
Markets will Open in the green. QQQ's are in the green.
Curiously, AAPL is shown to be in the Red-
Will this be a true rally day,after a hard sell-off-and WHY? Or will this be an Open to draw the Bulls in and then hand them losses?
What's fundamentally changed?
bOUGHT aapd with a limit at the Open- AAPL short-
@ 9:45SQQQ made a rally attempt- A 1st try to R.O.T. Macd histogram on the 1 minute an early cross .
Not filled-
aDDED MORE sqqq $20.59- Partial sell $20.80 -stops raised on 2 separate orders to cover the entry cost @ Break Even- see if this can get some upside MOMO.
10:28 AM :I'm holding with stops below the swing low- will see if i can scale out on higher momo.
SQQQ- STOPS OUT- W-C-S- have sold more into the upmove- That's OK, I was trying for a bigger gain by allowing stops to remain wide- Only sold a partial for a net small profit.
![]() i.imgur.com/o7AETKx.png![]()
Mid morning- swing to TQQQ- worked as SQQQ lost momo. Several trades net profits-
I had left a partial position at B.E. in SQQQ which triggered as SQQQ pushed lower-
Presently took another long in TQQQ As it's basing at 11:30 - stop under the swing low $35.26
Previous trades i was selling off partial position shares into the Rise-
Headed out to walk the Pup in the yard-
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Post by sd on Oct 4, 2023 13:59:45 GMT -5
All of a sudden my Google Chrome browser has failed- and computer is acting extremely slow-
Using Microsoft Edge to get logged back in-here ,but will be trying to figure out the issue - with Chrome, Gmail, broker log in etc. Later......
Windows updates installed, closed out all other pages, and did a system security check- No problems identified- Potentially I had too many pages opened with graphics (charts) that overloaded the system Ram- ? Possible culprit ....
After a restart, Chrome operates fine- .
Big market rally today as Treasury Yields and Oil both come down- -
Been a tough Month for the markets and those holding Long positions
Crude drops -5%, Energy stocks tank- .....
Loads of Bots visiting here - but perhaps 1 or 2 real persons stop by now and then-
Prof D is off on travels- but from the Leavittbrothers.com website -
Scotty posting his trades using the same approach
So, this is Replicable-and Not too technical -
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Post by sd on Oct 5, 2023 8:10:31 GMT -5
10.54.23
Red is the direction for today's Open...
Position taken in SQQQ $20.25- working-
Took a loss in TQQQ on a 2nd entry that failed to move higher- and I stopped out- I reentered SQQQ and the present trade is working higher- with a combination of trailing and fixed stops
SQQQ re-entry is profitable- sold a partial small 5 shares at mkt $20.92- have divided the remaining position into 2 trailing stops and 1 fixed stop I will adjust manually -depending on the price action. My entry cost on the reentry is $20.70 .
What is obvious is that I could have kept the original entry alive-0 and added to it- following the 10:30 swing low.
order screen was a 50 share re-entry -sold 5 mkt
@ 10:56 1 stop triggers- the $0.12 TR stop- while the $0.15 is still in play
By 11 am, the initial sell-off momentum likely fades --- we made a sharp low this week-
Point to be made here- My position size is relatively small (50 share positions) in order to be trading to make real net gains-
Presently SQQQ is making a tight sideways consolidation-
Added another 100 shares -sizing up in this base- would have preferred to get in closer to the base lows-
setting the stop under the base swing low by $0.01- Risk is about $10 - decent gains on the 50 shares + 50 reentry so far
Heading out to talk the dogs for a walk on the walking trail by the Neuse....Later
The trades in SQQQ stopped out about 9 minutes after I added the 100 share- position. Still net a small gain on the Day-
The question is whether I can enter with more size initially - as I had a good initial entry this am-
Enjoyed the walk with LOLO and the pups along the river/bike trail- Something we should take the time to do every day- weather permitting-
The entire exercise of day trading continues to provide a challenge - got back home @ 2 pm....
Didn't try for any other pm trades-
From Scotty @ the LB website-
Pretty darn colorful!
GRADE THE TRADE (S) How was my
Part of the process recently is to become aware of how often the Open does not guarantee the direction-
Today, the Open was bullish- in SQQQ which shorts Tech. I didn't make an initial entry - went long @ 9:39:41 when price made a higher move.
Now, the MACD was already above ) line as a continuation from the prior day . Today's Open was $20.19, and the swing low following the open was just $20.12-
Potentially, I could have bought the open in SQQQ but the recent volatility swings that quickly have reversed direction makes me more cautious-
The 'issue' in today's trade- was that the Open was a bullish continuation of yesterday- so the MACD was already in positive-above the 0.0 line and stochastic was already upsloping-
I failed to Buy the higher Open- thinking "reversal pending' - Indeed , the Open bar was not the low bar- followed by 2 bars that dipped to lower lows on the 3 minute chart-
I did make a market Buy @ 9:39- as price made a higher green bar- But, that was $0.20 higher than if I had bought the Open.
Sold a partial as price moved higher and elevated the stop-loss to a couple of pennies below break even /., Price moved higher,and a tight $0.10 trailing stop got triggered. -Price then resumed it's uptrend, and as it pulled back, a final trailing stop was triggered- Locked in gains I debated about the final 20 share position- and raised it to be a market Sell as price broke down lwer .
I reentered the trade following the pullback with a trailing buy-stop order. I scaled out with 10, then -as price based sideways- I added trailing stops- that ended up triggering- I then decided I would add a larger size position- 100 shares, while retaining 15 shares from the prior re-entry- That new entry failed- and stopped out below the base swing low-
In hindsight- that final re-entry was done almost right- an entry that saw a sideways bas had formed- I potentially could have entered a few cents lower had I been more adept at a buy- used a limit- which I was late in doing- Bought a tad higher than I liked- but I had a base and a swing low- to set a stop below- The potential was that a higher move mazy develop -but my stop was directly under the swing low of the base- and it triggered for a loss of the 100 share reentry.
That tight stop turned out to be timely- as price went directly lower when the base did not see a successful breakout-
Position was cleared.
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Post by sd on Oct 6, 2023 7:30:09 GMT -5
10-6-2023 Friday- Futures slightly in the Green with an hour to go.....
OH no- Jobs report- came in stronger than expected- markets swing well into the RED-
Strong employment- Wage demand seems to have flattened out- Fed won't be happy with the job market remaining strong....But Average hourly earnings coming in at +3.2% - a moderate rise vs the higher months ...
Just saw TSLA come across -down -$7 versus yesterday's +16 - Why?
See how the markets digest this info before the Open....
Bias will be to the downside- TZA is where I'll look at the Open-
Premkt big gap bid $#4.29- Not buying the Open-
TZA working higher one stop for 1/2 is just at my Entry- I've made several other buys here- and moved stops quickly to Break Even - only to get whipsawed out ----So, holding this with net gains - but I could have had much net larger gains had I entered better on the pullbcaks.
Flipped and bought TNA- the inverse of TZA- looked oversold by the MACD - I bought a small start 10 shares as it declined $25.29 with a $0.20 trailing stop-
It then quickly reversed and I bought 50 more .$25.45- before I could put in a trailing buy-stop.
TNA WAS WELL EXECUTED-
rE-ENTRY tna-
tHGE WIDER STOPS ON THIS TRADE ARE NOW ABOVE MY ENTRY
tOPPING TAIL BAR-
LOOKIN PRETTY iFFY -yES?
HELL YES!
SO Far- TR stops have not triggered. but it likely won't be long before they do-
11:25 TNA still working-0
Nice to not have my finger on the Sell button- because I would have sold much earlier!
![]() i.imgur.com/B5tv13T.png![]()
Trailing stop orders self adjust off the price highs, locking in gains-
The obvious question is how wide do I set it- these are at $0.15, $0.20 and have been just enough to not get triggered- yet-
late am 11:30- so -nice gains will be locked in .
histogram was stepping progressively higher- now seeing a slight tick lower. Pausing?
11:30 and the up momo continues! I could get spoiled by this- (reality check son!)
Histogram reclaimed continued highs- So amazing !
![]() up $1 above my 2nd entry - WCS have taken a 250 share position -LOL!
TR stps getting close to netting a $.75 move- on the 2nd trade.
Hist ticking lower on a pull back blue bar starting 11:46 am
OK, a Pause- stochastic rolling over- macd hist ticking lower- drop in the fast MACD black line- will this be a sideways consolidation or weaken to see some give back @ 11:48.
Nope- We go higher @ 11:50!
We hadn't seen blue bars since the single one earlier @ 11:15 ~/~
@ 11:53 the Trailing stops will lock in a $1 + gain - Price made a high of $27.06- my re-entry was $25.81- stops are at $26.86; $26.91
Notice how price has climbed the 3 ema straight up- so Unusual!
i'm going to move the trailing stop $0.15 to a wider $0.25
@ 12:00
Still trending higher!
A look at both TZA and TNA- a weakening/pause in the TNA upside here-
looks like a roll here in the TNA- a series of blue bars indicated slowing of the momentum-
Time for a bounce in TZA? Dbl bottom here -Macd up -not buying this though-
@ 12:15 - stops are now above $27 and price is in a Pause-
Note that PSAR has issued a sell on this slowing in the momentum- Cannot take psar literally , but very Often psar will call a top and see it get taken out a few bars later-
On the other hand, worth watching the declining psar values to consider a reentry-
My TR stop @ $27.05 sold.
Both stops triggered 12:20 drop
I disagreeumption is that we see a pause during the lunch hour- will we get a resurgence this afternoon?
This is a good opportunity to study - and notice price action and behavior in both the TZA and the TNA
So, there were 3 trades taken Long in TNA this am- Trying to note this while fresh-
A very small spec trade of just a 10 share position-Trying to second guess a bottom is near is a dangerous mindset- so a very small trade to see -0what if... I then gave it a $0.20 trailing stop-
I was thinking by viewing the higher MACD we were potentially nearing a bottom- and planned to add more if price went lower- but it immediately went higher- and I didn't have a trailing buy-stop in place-
I chased and bought 50 more @ $25.45 on the same 3 minute bullish reversal blue bar - I then set a trailing stop for 2 parts of the total 60 share position- and 1 stop was a market sell decision- I think the tr stops were set @ $0.15 and $0.20- and the market sell was intended to follow price tighter--
That trade sold and stopped out as price declined - I then made a timely re-entry- $25.81 with 50 shares- that caught the start of a very unusual almost vertical surge higher-
One of the goals I have is to try to get into a trade earlier- closer to the Point of Failure- so a stop out will be relatively small.
I tried to add to a winning TZA trade this am and 'sized up' by adding a 100 share Buy to the existing trade- but that stopped out for a net wipe out of the earlier smaller 50 share entry.
I'm going to clean off the earlier annotations - and take notice of the technicals that are worth paying attention to.
aS PRICE IS basing this 1:15 pm, I looked at the $25.75 swing low and decided I would venture a very small 25 share trade with a $0.04 stop loss- $25.74 stop- as the Point of Failure in this possible base....
This is as much an academic exercise-and not expecting a big move from here-
DIDN'T GO FAR AT ALL-
The EOD
fOLLOWING THIS stopping out, we headed out for an afternoon Matinee to see CREATOR- an interesting sci-fi Movie about a future with self aware robots- Enjoyed it- and, the robots - and the entire animation seemed flawless- Made before AI-What's to come over the next year or two? There were only 6 other people for the Friday afternoon show- Wow! of course, there were 5 or so other movies also showing...So, this completed our semi annual quota of venturing out to the movies- The recent follow up to Pandora was decent-as well, but I tend to like anything sci-fi-
This was a pleasant way to end the trading week-with an easy win with a substantial % gain for a relatively small position-
I could have had a better gain had I simply averaged up on my position size- I've been dabbling and experimenting- and it feels like I'm taking better trades--and Risking less.
An extra wide stop does not necessarily give a better chance of it being a winning trade- Just means that the entry could have been targeted better.
If I size up, ideally I will target better entries as I did with the last TNA trade- with a well defined tight stop- However, I often misread these pullbacks - and even though the stop is tight- taking a series of losing trades is like capping your knee with a ball peen hammer- Eventually you feel some pain....
As I continue to explore the nuances of trading on a fast time frame, the challenges remain... How do I size up prudently? At one time I had been up to 250 shares as a position size- Since we're not trending week in and week out in an uptrend- and the action is choppy from one day to the next- it's prudent to be cautious. So, let's see if i can step up next week to 100 shares as the normal entry- in my day trades- - Risk should be targeted to a max loss of $0.25 in general- so a $25 loss on a 100 share position seems reasonable.
However, for those 1 or 2 live bodies that occaisionally stop by here- and the rest of you Bots-
it makes total sense when trying out any strategy to put it's through it's paces by testing a minimal amount of share size- and do that for a number of weeks under varied conditions- and make small adjustments- and see if it works-
Don't be in a big hurry to Earn- be willing to take a deep breath and be willing to be responsible and 'Learn' . When you try out a variation or a new approach- Jmho.
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Post by sd on Oct 7, 2023 8:12:37 GMT -5
Saturday- a bit of a chill, drizzle, and plenty of opportunity to view some You Tube shows from those I follow...
Ticker Symbol YOU-
Gives Cathy Wood -ARKK CEO- a takedown on her projections- and his losses by continuing to hold her funds-Once the high flying fund winner- she continued to promote her fund's projected outperformance expectations- that continue to prove inaccurate-to say the least- And now, she just released a substantially reduced expectation for her fund's performance over the next 5 years- She really got it wrong- and her 'research' failed to account for a rising rate environment.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=iakz52LMBi4
Risk Reversal- Smart guys-with continuing concerns- Danny Moses, Guy Adami, and Dan Nathan. discuss the market forces in play.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=2B3Fj4RU-rw
Sossnoff- Tasty Trade -brief
www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-KAM4_Gwoo
David Keller: 'Special' The Final Bsr- 10 charts- holding Support- or Weakening?
wHILE HE COVERS SOME REASONS TO VIEW CHARTS BULLISHLY, HE GIVES 2 EXAMPLES at the 26+min in of 2 examples of stocks potentially breaking down, and illustrates the weakness.-
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndVfyIW5jS0
The Compound- Josh Brown and Company the 1st 13 minutes are just gab- The script starts after 13 minutes discussing Meta AI- long rambling discussion ensues...Chat GPT, LLama2, Claude...
Will these models actually be revenue generators?
SBF -Michael Lewis author???
www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8qcSiRUoL4
From some of the Experienced Traders found on http://www.leavittberothers.com:
Lots of charts, plenty of sage advice meant for those with lesser experience-
"Once you establish a trading methodology, most of trading is being patient for a setup to occur.....avoid chasing, sometimes you have to get on the bus or get left behind, but that should be very rare, and only when the internals of the markets are conducive.....chasing doesn't have to be a fomo move, it can be as simple as the indicators you use are telling you there's a reason to get on board.....patience is very important to trading....easy to say but difficult to apply when prices are moving.....any trading method can work if you are able to apply patience and discipline to your particular method.... "
"Very true.....and if you miss a trade or get stopped out or take profits "too early" you have to remember There Is Always Another Trade."
"And the really stupid part of my youth, once I was beaten to nuts and covered my shorts for a big loss, I would go long just in time for prices to retreat.....I'm amazed I've managed to live so long given my propensity towards being a dumb ass.....if these markets are hurting you take heart in that you are paying your dues, and if you can survive long enough those dues paid will serve you well in your trading career.....keep a journal and be brutally honest in your mistakes.... "
" Identify where you're wrong. Use Stops. Always remember: The Second mouse gets the cheese. "
Some excellent and understandable chart examples get posted Daily.
In the attached Daily candlestick chart- The IWM is clearly in a downtrend- a 1st R.O.T. (Assert attempt) at the end of September 9-29,30 Fails (common occurrence). The MACD histogram did not go to a deeper histogram as Price continued to go even lower- Notice the elements within this chart- The downtrending Emas are still far apart- the candles appear to have set a low with that 1st green bar that made a low, but managed to Close slightly higher above the Close of the prior Red bar-
Will this potentially bullish action in the 3 green candles see another R.O.T./ ReAssert that can see a multi day move back higher-
Divergences often precede directional changes- both to the upside and to the downside- Notice that the MACD Histogram is an easy graphic to notice when the momentum may be shifting, or making a change in intensity.
A comment about how far the MACD may be as a drag on a strong R.O.T. (Assert)
with the MACD buried below the zero line, high probability that price won't go straight up, but will need a retest (of some sort) of the low for a Bull Hook to form on the MACD.
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