SD'S -2023 DON'T JUST SIT THERE TO SURVIVE- MOVE&PROSPER!

[sd]

9.8.23 Futures in the RED Premkt-
Will be leaving before the mkt Close to see Willie here in NC this pm.
AAPL is shown down -$0.34 @ 8 am. I added back to my position yesterday afternoon as price held in a sideways range and didn't give it all back- nor fill the gap.
Will check this out just before the Open- but the Nas has been declining the entire week.
Present formation is a Head and shoulders top- The 'Tell' will be if price manages to go below the 50 ema , and then go on to make a lower low than seen in August.
That formation could work out in September in the next week potentially -depending on more catalysts to the negative side.



AAPL is shown up premarket- AAPD trade likely stops out , giving back some gains.

AAPD did hit the 90 + 30 stops $22.78;22.75 .
AAPL peaked before 10 am and had apullback- .AAPD made a swing low @ $21.70 , so I changed my stop to $21.65 on the remaining 30 share position.
Stockcharts failed to show any Pricing in the AAPD 1 & 3 minute charts, even when refreshed- It did show on the daily charts...

The AAPD chart


Took a new swing position in RIG (Energy driller) Will use the recent swing lows as a line in the sand- stop will be $7.97- I'll set a $0.25 trailing stop on this with price at $8.23





BX swing position is working



LLY WORKING- Bought the yesterday breakout.


aDDING SOME SWING POSITIONS-
CHTR- battle with Disney- Chtr looks potentially to be getting some stock support here-


FRom Jase @ the LB website-



Almost mid-day - Sector performance this week has Energy as the sector leader-



Energy-Nat GAS FCG ETF -Bullish price action off the recent pullback . I'll give this a bit of room with a stop under the $26.58 swing low-
Stop $26.48


I will increase my weighting in Energy as swing positions.

fROM THE lb website-
TQQQ was an easy Buy at the Open- as price only went down $0.01 lower!
I started charting the 1 minute charts in SQQQ and will do TQQQ as time allows since Aug 1- to get a better sense of some actual
statistics regarding the Opening 1 minute bar - to get a sense of where the market is heading-
It would be interesting to know that one could Buy the Open, set a tight $0.10 stop below the entry, and have a high probability of the trade making a higher move...
I was focused on the AAPD trade- primarily this open- tossed in a SOXS at the open buy- and it immediately hit my stop. as it failed to continue higher.
It also made sense that with the prior days all in decline this week , that we are due for a bounce today.
Prof D's charts- You can find him @ www.leavittbrothers.com and get a free trial...
A very interesting mix of swing and Day traders- relatively small active group there- and Jase offers some swings and weekday commentary @ EOD.
He also provides a good solid EOW assessment.... on the weekend.


Some things to point out - Yesterday, the TQQQ had opened lower- downtrending, but then made a recovery as the day went up- Closing bullishly higher on the day-
That implied a turn in the market.
This 5 day chart (15 minute bars) shows how the prior price action was basing 9-1,9-5- with a sideways trend.
9-6 Price opened lower and closed down -5% from the prior Close.
9-7 Price had a bearish -3.5% drop at the Open, but turned a bit higher on the day, Closing higher-
9-8 The Open today was slightly just below yesterday's Close $40.38
This 1 min chart demonstrated the intraday volatility -



EOW-
So, Semis had been the leading segment for TECh's outperformance-
There's a distinct chill in the air for the performance of Semis this week:
Courtesy of LB

Week End performance:

[sd]

9-11 Anniversary - Horrific day for the USA.
Important to 'Never Forget" and teach our children the threat that is always present of what others Hate can cause-
Similarly, the ideologies that are contrary to ours - we must always maintain a defensive support of military strength.

Won't be focused on trading much today- Trip to Lowes this am to get some plumbing fittings/valves to install in the water lines to try to isolate
what seems to be a slow leak-

[sd]

9.12.23 Futures in the RED- Plumbing saga continues- will take up most of my day-
AAPL short a consideration to take today- AAPD $ 21.86 limit order for the Open-

AAPD fill $21.79
Loss on TZA @ entry fill @ Open $27.98 Sold with a $0.20 T stp $27.86 -loss of $0.12



RIG- some size on as a swing trade- 250 shares, $0.20 T stp cost basis $8.20 T stp is now up to $8.13 .
A plumbing off i go....



AAPD working- T stp $0.25 as AAPL slides into the Red following

2 pm - Trip back to Lowes for more plumbing parts

Completed the major rework of the plumbing lines @ 4:30 - 2 hr wait time to pressurize the lines and a shower! (Fingers crossed! No Leaks)
\
With most of the day spent under the house, I didn't realize that a low Limit order for SOXS had filled-
While this is a 3 minute chart- it illustrates the point that the market makers - who can see all the orders in the Que, intentionally Open some stocks at a gap open- only to see price reverse after the 1st bar or two.
When I had set up my premarket orders, I set low limits not expecting them to fill, just so I have them on the order page and can adjust if I want to enter the trade-
SOXS had a big gap up Open- and my limit order to Buy was $0.50 lower.
Quite Honestly, I was just lucky that the trade didn't fill and then go dramatically lower- Purely coincidental that I got in close to the Low ( $9.96) and price then rebounded higher.
Hqd I noticed that I had a fill and stuck a T stop- it would have stopped out from the 11:10 high that saw a $10.38 high followed by a 2 hr decline to $10.11- it then went on to make a $10.46 Close-
Carrying this one overnight as a swing trade- may ADD some size tomorrow.



AAPD STOPPED OUT MID AFTERNOON-2:32 pm @ $ 22.16 - The Trailing stop functioned well while I was crawling under the house on hands and knees and getting a bit frustrated with the entire plumbing affair.



sWING TRADE IN THE eNERGY SPACE- RIG- held for 3 days- Net +4.7% with the trailing stop $0.20 triggering by $0.02 from the pullback low- this afternoon- Energy area is still strong- will consider a re entry.
Held this the prior week with some Size for a decent gain ....



bx sWING TRADE ACTIVE, WEAKENING.


LLY Closed @ $599.30- $11.00 T stp

[sd]

9-13-23
Line pressure dropped overnight to 0.0 with the power to the pump off-
Check valve installed at the well is working- HMMM - don't see any obvious signs of leaks-
Potentially underground? Will have to figure this out! Isolate and air test each line segment .
Will be Installing a Test T in each line to put an air compressor connection on with a pressure gauge.
Later for that.


Futures slightly in the Red/flat. Waiting on the CPI report this am.
SMH indicated to open lower this am- carrying m over the SOXS trade from yesterday-
AAPL release yesterday simply met market expectations-
Will see if the AAPD trade fills again today...AAPL @ 8 am is pricing up slightly from the close by $0.20- @ $176.50 + but climbing higher -


Both F & GM , STLA are seeing prices rising as they negotiate with the UAW-union . Union says the CEO's are making +40% in pay while the UAW workers received +6% -
Strike decision comes m9-14 Midnight.

Seems bizarre that these companies lose money on their electric cars, while relying on profits from the ICE - gas autos they build to fund the expanding electric side and try to compete against TSLA...
Comparing the 3 , STLA has stood out in terms of the stock price rising. While F & GM are in declines.


soxs ADD 50 TODAY AT THE oPEN STOPPED OUT FOR NET $0.0 DUE TO GAINS FROM YESTERDAY-
dECIDED i'D go for a STLA position-

Pricing premarket was up- initially I set a $19.07 limit/100 share- but bought 1/2 as price pulled back- and added 1/2 at the bounce off of yesterdays low being matched-
Avg cost $19.09/100 share position- Setting a very tight stop @ $19.99 Risk is $9 .
If price does not trigger at my stop and manages to move higher , I'll add a trailing stop order to protect this averaged cost- so , If I want to get out at B.E., and $19.09 is my cost, will a $0.25 T stp if price reaches $19.39 work to keep the position alive? Or, split the stops - one wider T stop and another narrower T stop to lock in some gains.. jus sayin



OT- Pressure loss may have been due to water not shutting off in one of the toiletbowl's flush valve- I had replaced these several times due to sediment-keeping the float from shutting off the wqater- so it slowly drained through the overflow pipe in the tank..Thanks to .LOLO's detecting the faint sound!


AAPD position taken this am - AAPL initially opened higher, looked bullish, but is weakening here after the bullish Open.


AAPD- here at 11 am, the $0.25 trailing stop is within $0.02 of my entry cost-
To lock in some assured gains, I may modify and split the stops



URA SWING POSITION- Entry was on a bullish push on 9-07 that failed to gain ground- I gave it a wide $0.40 trailing stop on the 100 sh position

Energy, including Nuclear will be necessary for the future- my opinion

Trade is working as the uptrend continues- Price presently is almost $1 above my entry cost- -
I'm going to give 1/2 the position a $1 T stp, and keep the remaining 50 shares with a $0.40 t sp.
Looking at the pullbacks in price over this recent uptrend, a $1 stop would have survived the pullbacks.

gOAL WILL BE TO have a part of the position with a wide $1 stop (Now at Breakeven) and a part of the position with a tighter $0.40 T stpo that will capture a good portion of any momentum surge- and will already lock in some gains if it triggers today...



This was also a better Trending entry as price had pulled back. I need to take more of these types of entries. Well defined Risk based on the recent lows made in price.
tHIS ENTRY ALSO GAVE ME A SWING LOW that am that I would select as my stop if Price went below that-
I think I used a fixed stop for a few days, and when the gap came, shifted to the trailing stops.





@ midday- The AAPD trade stopped out ON PRICE GAPPING DOWN TO HIT THE STOP . Net loss on the Tr Stp was $0.01 for a $1 actual loss.
Gave it some room with that wider T stp-



Also at mid day, The STLA trade has come back very close to my fixed Stop -$0.01 I gave the stop a few cents below the initial low , and HAVE SET THE STOP $18.99 rISK IS $10 .00 ON THE AVERAGED COST.


i RELENTED AND GAVE THE STOP A BIT MORE ROOM $18.95.

rE-eNTRY AAPD- On the 12:50 bounce higher- entry $12.29 but this time with a $0.10 Tr Stop- meaning it triggers @ 12.19
AAPD is difficult to read with the lag from stockcharts and the gappy price action.



SC is not showing any trades- screenshot was taken @ 12:54- Very thinly traded- Price bars don't reflect the actual time by at least 6 minutes-



Mid afternoon- did a windows update - and computer restart-
STLA stopped out Net $-14 loss- This was a play on the Auto/UAW negotiations- F & GM had also opened up higher, only to see prices weakening as no news is released concerning negotiations.

AAPD re-entry is in the green- with a very tight $0.10 T stp - Just too choppy and not enough volume to see price bars print-Recent price hit $22.39, so my cost of entry also is now my stop. I don't have great expectations for this seeing much greater movement this pm.... AAPL put in the day's low this am and weakened this pm - but with only an hour to go - not a lot to get excited about.

Check out this drop thru Support- Triggering my slightly wider stop-


Several of the traders @ LB's website like to employ Fib & fork projections- Seems pretty darn complicate to learn- but there's something to be sai for understanding the TA principles behind a trade decision. Even without trying to bring in a fib calculation- in it's simplest terms, this means Buyers likely got into this trade as it approached the prior day's swing low.
In this example , GEO shows the 'Redbox" trade-
In the past , this was seen as a stock that makes either a swing high- or a swing low- , price then fails to exceed that high or low- and that triggers a trade entry- either on the short side, or the long side.
I think the less exotic way to simply see this, is to set a support or resistance line at the swing , and then see if price fails to exceed it and trade accordingly. A buy at the bounce from this level offers a well defined Risk by using the prior swing low as a gauge of where to set a stop-loss.
Geo provided a clean candlestick chart ; wHILE THIS IS A 5 MINUTE TIME FRAME, SIMILAR PRICE ACTION CAN BE SEEN on every time frame-
What is the practical side of understanding the premise of this type of price action?
Well, you have a prior swing low from the prior day that tried to make a higher move into the Close.
That swing low now represents a potential "support" because buyers emerged and raised the price for the rest of the day.
Today the price action opened up, but then reversed to the downside, but buyers stepped in before price reached yesterday's swing low- and actually made a higher Close than the bar's Open-



5 minute Elder Impulse Bar chart




What can be seen is that in the hurry of the moment, that last 5 minute red box bar Opened $8.20, had a decline 0f $0.07 down to $8.13, and made a higher Close $8.24.
So, do you wait for the Bar to Close bullishly (safer?) and Buy at a higher $8.25 - or would it be less of a loss to try to have a low limit Buy waiting at the red box level and only risk $0.08 or so on every red box trade? Of course, that will vary with the actual price of any stock one may be purchasing-
In this example , the swing low $8.08 -Swing high $8.68 for a price move of $0.60
If one multiplies 0.60 x .941 = . 56 cents- and the low was actually $0.05.
Very coincidentally -I think- was the follow up intraday price action .
Consider the swing low made @ 11:40- made a $0.59 up move to $9.00, and then retraced $0.56 from a low of $8.34



i CONTINUE TO spend time at the LB website to pick up methodologies and insights from the traders there, instead of strictly trading under my own Rock here.

Some examples of how the traders employ some of the lessons from Jason's Masterclass- is becoming aware of a divergence in the indicator that differs from Price action.
In this chart - prof D illustrates that the MACD divergence he watched while looking for a reentry in TQQQ as Price dropped lower.
Similarly, other traders there also watch for the divergence as an early indicator that a change may be coming in the not too distant future-
Doesn't always work - but it's worth taking notice of...

Divergences can be seen when indicators show different results than the price action-
Price rising but the indicator declining- suggests underlying weakness and diminishing buying support.
Price declining but the indicator making a shallower move- potential change in momentum lies ahead, as well as direction potentially.
This may seem counter intuitive- but on learning to watch and identify a divergence- the expectation should be of an upcoming change is likely- be aware of it and ideally prosper- either by tightening a stop- or preparing to make an earlier entry than usual.




In the chart above- Notice that Price made a continuation to decline to a lower low- but the MACD indicator made a higher turn back up towards the 0.0 line.

His re-entry was as the MACD made a positive move higher and the price bar moved back higher- Note that he also quickly elevated his stop to above his entry cost.
Devoid gives some great examples of both day trades and swing trades that are pretty cut and dried- I find his approach is what I most try to emulate....and I've noticed that as the markets are getting a bit more volatile, he is quicker to raise a stop tighter than when we had a relatively strong uptrend going---He's adapting to the environment as he sees it-

UAW may strike within 48 hrs-
Phil /CNBC thinks a few targeted strikes may start-initially.
Blue cross,blue shield insurance workers in Michigan also walked out today.
This year, you see the impact of the big inflation of the past 1-2 years that has prompted workers across the country to realize they are not keeping pace with inflation.
Indeed, in my own work history, I should have requested an automatic raise that matched The CPI annually, plus an incentive if my added experience made me more effective to the company.... W-C-S... bit late now.

ARM IPO tomorrow pricing at $51.00 is oversubscribed- Likely a huge Open tomorrow-
CNBC made a good example of some of the big IPOs of recent years that have all dropped hard following the initial IPO surge....
Seems like a lot of HYPE here on the tailwind of "AI'- this year.

So, speaking of AI- the Tech giants all met in Washington DC -including Musk- to talk and warn congress that AI needs to be regulated and controlled.
The gov't is almost always late behind the 8 ball- and, we don't even have a dept that specifically addresses "Technology" - Odd, since that is the driving engine under which our economy prospers...

[sd]

9-14-23 Exploring Uranium energy stocks-
I own the URA & held CCJ recently-
From Barcharts- 52 week highs-present list-

www.barchart.com/stocks/highs-lows?orderBy=symbol&orderDir=desc

Jason Leavitt video-identifying a bottoming pattern

www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMExlxdH8lQ



TICKER symbol YOU- video PLTR and Generative AI - Critical of PLTR as not being the growth/AI stock- Revenues slowing.
like his very astute videos!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvApB6JVIDA

GOOG & NVDA collaboration/Generative AI-

www.youtube.com/watch?v=9D0NgjpXYZs

Vertex AI - Google workspace -allows companies to have an isolated and secured cloud workspace-DUET AI
The expanded functionality and AI covered in this video is impressive.
Cyber security for business -


Alex -TSY- gives some examples of some potential flaws in the ARKK approach to not investing in some of the megacap industry leaders.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQ0_c-hz9kE

On the ARM IPO- : Which occurs today- Video is a few weeks old-Alex says he won't be buying the ARM stock.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9xmrNY7kcM

ARM china owes ARM a substantial amount of it's revenue...Be cautious...


9 am - Futures look strong in the Green.

EOD- added more URA, it ran up and hit the Tstp on 2/3 of the position.
Same with the SMH- put a trade on @ 10 am $149.85- gave it a trailing stop and headed out to take care of covering the above ground pool - Trade stopped out with a t STOP $151.33.
Hands off, stayed outside except for a brief lunch in the pm.
Did add some tech stocks today, incl Adobe ahead of it's earnings- small position. roll of the dice- not a very large response after hours...

ARM closed up higher today- valuation is way too high to think about.

Options expiration tomorrow..

Seems like the UAW will go into strike mode tonight. Union isn't responding to Ford's offers.

Pleasant weather temps- will possibly make a trade in the am but then set that T stp and get off my --- and get some chores taken care of!

[sd]

9.15.23 Futures showing Red -

URA RIPPING HIGHER.
ADBE gamble sells off - AMZN weakening, ODD TSLA declining today and the big 3 are up with no trade talks ...Bizarre- defies logic. UAW striking all 3










After taking the TZA trade, watching the price Action start to move higher- I set a $0.20 stop and went outside for the remainder of the day, attending to some needed projects-

At the EOD, a number of my just taken long tech trades stopped out -took some larger losses- I had been optimistic- unfortunately.
I checked and the TZA trade had worked exactly as I had hoped- It captured a period of consolidation ,and a surge higher , without stopping out- Price made a top in the pm, pulled back, and the stop triggered for a very decent net +$0.75 gain.

[sd]

Sunday pm- Jason Leavitt's trading examples for entry on swing trades
Gives examples of looking at a faster time frame to identify a potential trade entry...using a 60 minute chart
:Take notice of how he applies trend lines to the macd, RSI, stochastic and tries to identify when price
Interesting illustrating with the Andrews pitchfork on TSLA -
www.youtube.com/watch?v=WW2WF2xMvOk



OT- Good weekend! Weather moderating, reasonable temps to enjoy working on some outdoor projects- Like cleaning out and reorganizing the storage shed! 4
Almost 1/2 way there- I think the remaining good days- September & October- offer a good opportunity to tackle some of the outstanding punch list items -
Potentially, it means I may put on a trade, attach a trailing stop, and not stay attached to the computer screen-

One adjustment I need to make is to differentiate the trailing stops -on a swing trade -hoping to hold for days + versus the leveraged day trades.
I have tried to do this recently- but saw several winning positions -LLY, URA both trigger my stops on volatility- I need to do more in depth study to see if i'm considering the normal average Daily ATR- and giving that trailing stop (in a winning position) adequate flexibility-
So, the Average True Range is simply an average of the N number of days looked back- So, If a stock was relatively sideways for the past 2 weeks, it's ATR would be relatively modest, versus if it was in a breakout surge- . Something to consider.

Watching Alex TSY- This guy gives excellent understandable videos -
This video discusses ARM, AMD, TSLA and suggests that TSLA continues to have the data and generative AI self driving thaT SETS IT WELL AHEAD OF THE COMPETITION.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6eKR9uY0nY


TSY Video on PLTR- www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvApB6JVIDA


DAn Ives- WEBBUSH very bullish While Morgan Stanley downgrades PLTR with a $9 target...
I took a shot at PLTR recently, and it disappointed and stopped out. The chart tells you whether the market sees the same potential.

So, Dan Ives calls NVDA and MSFT the #1 level players in the Generative AI space-
The 3rd and 4th level players would include PLTR- Interesting that only 3 companies have the level 6 clearance with the US gov't- PLTR,MSFT,,AMZN
noted @ 7:15 in the video -

PLTR is applying a program - AIP- to engage with generative AI , but it is not the big value to the AI generative LLM modeling. It sounds like the criticism @ 10:46 is warranted, and PLTR is likely over valued. @ 11:00 minutes in, Alex discusses the declining revenue growth % , along with more shares put out onto the market for dilution. Alex thinks PLTR is fairly priced @ $13-$15

I'll finish this evening watching Sosnoff on Tasty Trade Live
They're Watching how the futures open this Sunday pm- But, we all know - cannot trust the OPEN or the premarkets----
That would be an interesting study itself- isolate and review the Monday Open after a Friday Close- is there a correlation based on the price action from the prior week? Computers already have all of this programmed in- so they know the probabilities...
Sosnoff thinks Bonds go higher, stocks go lower in the 4th qtr-
Fun discussion !

www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTuE_IKUo6E
They're thinking that the FED is at 0.0% chance of a rate hike , and the Fed needs to cry 'Uncle" -
Sosnoff thinks there's a decent chance that buyers may step in on the value side this week. as a contrarian trade...
but seems to be bearish net ....Thinks Crude comes back lower-


How to use The ATR from SMB:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=LA-ppgrPdC8

[sd]

9-18-2023 Futures in the red pre mkt @ 8 am

Energy /oil holding near it's highs-
UAW strike in day 4, Biden is supposed to have sent some 'advisers' in to try to come to a resolution.
Writers strike in month 4?
Ukraine war continues, but is not a major news item.

Will get a flu shot this week ,but not another Covid booster-
Already have had several bouts of Covid and several boosters-and caught Covid despite the vaccine-
Viewed a number of videos by a British Doctor- John Campbell
www.youtube.com/results?search_query=dr+john+campbell
the myocardial injuries and high ratio of other adverse reactions shows a higher Risk versus benefit according to some peer review researchers.
Medcram.com:
Another report by the CDC: shows that the majority of the population already has antibodies that are somewhat effective against the present strains- @ 15:56 discusses the impact of the MRNA vaccines causing Myocarditis-
The person reviewing the different studies with the higher Risk getting an adverse reaction/ suggests persons can discuss this increased Risk of both Covid and side effects.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=spg2eknFb4I-

I'll likely try another run at the TZA small cap trade today-


@ 9:20- Having issues with stockcharts loading.


Had to reboot the computer-
This open holding both TZA and now TNA- as price is slopping and chopping

TNA stopped out -$-6.02 net loss TZA presently net + $8 gain with a $0.16 T stop initiated @ $28.60- as it made a basing pause-
TZA stops out $28.52 as i was taking the screenshot.9:52 So, Net gain is $4



So, the actual loss TNA - $5.83 Net Gain TZA + 4.68

Buy-stop SOXL $20.03 if it gets back above the high made pre 10 am.





bUY STOP FILLS 10:12 -WITH A $0.25 t STP


hOW WILL THE MORNING DEVELOP-? the SOXL started selling off and a gap down at the open- but that has since reversed.
The buy-stop order filled $20.03 has a $0.25 trailing stop that is now up to $19.87
The question is the volatility of the price action - Will that be too narrow a stop for the normal volatility?
Volatility swings have tightened up a bit from the Opening swings-
Looks like it will trigger the stop !


YUP- 10:30 chart the $0.25 TR STP didn't contain the volatility.







[Viewing the 3 indexes- the SOXL,TNA, and TQQQ are all trying to trend up with progressively higher swing lows


Swing trades- GOOGL making a recent move higher- Giving it a $2.50 TR stop-
UBER not performing as I hoped- Looked left at prior lows and giving it just $0.16 on the stop from it's present price pullback.

SLB NEW SWING TRADE ON IT'S POSITIVE UPMOVE TODAY -Will give this a Hard Stop @ $59.70 - just a bit below the recent swing lows.


XLE- is in a upsloping channel- on the 1 hr chart , today's price action generated a stochastic cross- Typically stochastic signals early- as noted the past stochastic crosses saw some upside- but relatively narrow up move before hitting the top trend line and then pulling back- OIL prices are at a recent high- sector may be the place to go to-
RIG had provided me some decent gains the prior week- Trade seems already extended obviously...
URA stop triggered this am . Swing trade held for a week or so.

Looking for a re-entry with a buy-stop if price moves back up to $26.71



Markets Flat - $VIX opened higher, coming back down $14.21
GOOGL making a new high though- holding a small swing position. I have a $2.50 TR STP that will now activate @ 136.32


European economies/mkts in the RED......


QQQ's flat and weakening- so good to take Risk % down- and lock in those gains on partials.
So, it's one of those indecisive days - good to be cautious....

Comparing some of the energy stocks- to the index etfs: Look at the volatility in Transocean (RIG) -green line over the past 5 days compared to the indexes,




ODTE- 0 day Options- O day options are bought at the Close 1 day, -or perhaps at the day open? and closed out the next day-
QQQY is a new ETF- allowed to trade in IRA's that buy's a Put Option on the Nasdaq- So, it's a bullish strategy -

This is brand new this week...



tt- tRANE SWING hAVE TO USE THE $200 LEVEL AS A SUPPORT- STOP $199.75

sIMILAR hvac CARR

SLV- GLD, NUGT - entry positions taken just ahead of the close.

[sd]

REviewing several SMB videos- The one on ATR and also the excellent video on Keltner channels- essentially an ATR based indicator- Garrett does a great job in explaining how he applies the Keltner channel to get a perspective- similar to Bollinger bands . Also explaining the ATR and how it can be used in setting targets, trailing stops- and adjusting on the different time frames.
On Keltner channels- www.youtube.com/watch?v=xX-wZXwtzTI

ATR:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LA-ppgrPdC8


ATR trailing stops in Think or Swim
short video www.youtube.com/shorts/qg_oo_UkKXY


ODTE -selling vertical spreads -Sosnoff, Tasty Trade
www.youtube.com/watch?v=YH_hL1oRjU0

so, let's view AAPL -CONVENTIONAL DAILY CHART atr IS $3.70 cLOSE $177.97 atr VALUE /PRICE = 2.08% hOW CAN THIS INFORMATION BE USED?

kELTRNER SET @ 2.5


SETTING THE kELTNER TO THE 2.0 SETTING


dRILLING DOWN ON TIMEFRAMES " 1 HOUR



5 MINUTES:

[sd]

Tues- 9-19-23 Futures mixed @ 8 am- Nas barely in the Red, Dow, S&P slightly green- after yesterday's ho-hum day -Markets waiting on the Fed Speak this week?

Saw GEO @ the LB website posting some 'Redbox' examples....
www.leavittbrothers.com -

In this 5 min chart example, it's not showing Fibs or forks- Just Price moving in a range, and seeing/taking the potential reversal when Price almost reaches the prior swing high or low- but then reverses direction . While numerous examples don't meet the Red BOX criteria- for instance- The Sept 11 initial high was tested and exceeded by a 2nd thrust higher that day
$108.59, then a $10878 peak-
The Red box trade -as near as i understand it- suggests to take an entry when Price comes back to almost match the prior high or low previously made- and use the 1st low as a very tight stop-loss on the initial entry.



TZA trade- I followed price as it moved down with a trailing buy-stop viewing the 1 min chart- Filled @ $28.17 9:41


Then I split the position in !/2- Put in too tight a T stop $0.08 that got taken out on a slight pullback - Price had a gap from $26.50 to Open Higher $26.55- I tightened my remaining position to $28.50 which got filled @9:55- Price went on higher and is still trending up -without me-
A $0.10 T stop wouldn't have triggered at either level.
Here @ 10 am, Price is basing at $28.70 AFTER HAVING MADE A +1% MOVE @ IT'S $28.78 high




Taking the inverse trade TNA- a 1st attempt to R.O.T. again using a trailing buy-stop to target that quicker entry- Particularly since the stockcharts lags before updating the price movement.
The MACD on the 1 min chart shows an early potential cross above the 0.0 line - not seen on the 3 min chart yet-

These 1st attempts to reverse the trend often seem to fail - so I've set a trailing stop $0.15 wide that will trigger @ $31.01 - ideally, I would be just $0.01 below that as that matches the bottom low made - As I type this, I see price had a pullback to the $31.04 and a following bar higher-

Stochastic is weak and below the 20 level- while the MACD is moving positively higher



tna DID N OT DEVELOP A STRONG r.o.t. and the price movement to $31.22 pulled the TR stop up to $31.06 which was triggered by the pullback @ 10:34- Net $0.10 loss on this trade- so, slightly in the green with profits from the TNA- Lackluster day- and although some of my swing positions were initially green at the Open, all have turned Red -

tAKING A SWING TRADE -SDS


Ugly day for the investment swings I tried- Energy weakened and declined- I had to dump as i don't have any cushion- Tool net losses in XLE, RIG,SLB-
with 15 min to go- Indexes all in the RED- Waiting on the Fed tomorrow I guess...
Heading back outside for the rest of the day-

[sd]

9-20-23 Futures in the Green ahead of the FED- No rate hike is expected today, but potentially in November if inflation fails to cool -
Energy costs are high - Food costs remain high-Housing costs etc... but they are not included in the Fed's calculations for some bizarre rationale-


Heading off to get a Flu vac this am- & biscuit & gravy-Yum!
MM fake out- this is in the 1st minute- ! Had a limit buy $39.72 that was below the premarket bid/ask -
Suckered in, the market opened $39.77 and the 1st minute tanked down hard- because it is small size, I allowed the bar to Close, and set a $0.20 TR stop.


gOT A fLU AND A 1ST SHINGLES SHOT- a follow up 2nd shingles in 2-6 mos is required. Passing on taking another Covid due to the potential Risk/adverse reaction is higher with the recent boosters. Particularly the PFE.

Doing small 10 share trade to 'test' TQQQ signal today-
I had an initial losing trade buying the TQQQ at the Open with a limit that thought the trend would go up- With the futures all in the green pre-open, it seems that was enough to see the QQQ's go higher after the recent weakness-
This post 10 am trade taken on the MACD cross on the 3 min chart has a $0.20 Tr Stp. Small size as I test the waters


KYVO IPO opens today - priced near $30 - but indications are it will open $34-$36.00-


ARM had an initial Pop, but then sold off trending lower on Day 2 -
CART opened up well above the IPO listed price, and declined immediately-
Prior CAVA IPO initially went higher, but has since declined-




What's working today - Swing positions URA,NUGT,GLD,SLV


The KVYO IPO- Opens well above and immediately declines


I had taken a position in SDS (bearish vs the s&P)
I totally thought that it would benefit from today's Fed release as being more restrictive for longer-
My thesis was correct- that was the message- but the initial bullish reaction as Powell came in to talk caused the SDS to drop sharply-
I reacted by setting a low stop- which was triggered by $0.02 of the swing low, and price then resumed to trend higher- $34.36 stop-
I could have elected to use the base made yesterday $34.30 and risked a few more pennies to set the stop below a potential support.
Penny wise- but Dollar foolish-



tHE pOWELL tAKE-A-WAY Rates will stay higher for longer- and potentially will see fewer rate cuts in 2024....Possibly, no rate increases this year- but certainly N O rate cuts-
Real rates will stay higher than what the markets expected. FED doesn't understzand how the economy and labor can be as strong as it has persisted in the face of the rate tightening.




According to Jeffery Gundlach, he sees the markets are very overvalued- suggests protecting the portfolios with a higher bond, fixed income, treasuries for 1-2 year duration .
Somewhat a perma bear focus, his calculations seem to come close-. but he also is looking months ahead-


The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom today announced he is canceling the mandate for all Electric auto sales due in 2030- and moved that out to 2035 citing that the infrastructure is not there....to support that aggressive schedule .....While the 'Green' agenda has the best of intentions, it doesn't see the realities of what we consumers need- affordable energy and affordable transportation.


UAW strike continues to expand. Saw an interesting survey stat that some 67% of Americans support the Unions - and think that corporate pay has risen exponentially.
The reality is, this is true- One simple fact that most workers are not aware of is the annual COLA- Cost of living adjustment - that one needs to get just to maintain one's purchasing power- While I had worked on both Union projects, and non-union projects- the reality is that the Unions set a higher standard for income and benefits for their workers, and the downhill benefit is that non union wages and benefits are generally far less-
Comparatively, TSLA non union workers average 35K? That's hard to consider as a decent paycheck- no matter where you live in the USA.

With the move to bring back production to the USA, so we are not reliant on other countries for essential goods, we will need to be prepared to pay the higher costs of paying decent living wages to the workers here- We outsourced business with Clinton and NAFTA- to the detriment of the us economy.
There is a wide swing in wages paid to the typical Blue collar worker in the industrial Northern states, that also comes with a high cost of living, housing, taxes- and go South to find lesser costs, and substantially lesser wages.

[sd]

9.21.23 Futures substantially in the RED with an hour to go !

AAPD- AAPL short gaining slightly pre mkt. AAPL shown down -$1.50

Giving RIG a stop under the swing low $7.95


SARK position in the green as well and higher premkt.

ARKK is shown down to $40.00 premkt trading.






GAP up open the 3x bears- waiting to see how this evolves-

Bit of trading wisdom from the LB board




TZA entry trade worked with a $0.20 TR stop-
Chart of the 10:40 entry into the attempted R.O.T. in SOXL- This is a counter trend attempt- likely to be short lived is my opinion/bias in the face of the market's continued negative reaction today-
However, as noted in the quote posted from the LB board- don't trade your bias- trade the chart- something that "RAT" has
posted frequently.
Took an entry as it pushed above the range high $18.03



So, I used a $0.20 TR stp - and my trade stopped out as price retraced the breakout of the range.
Net loss was $0.10 - should have seen some "support" at that $ $18.00 price level-
Potentially I could have raised the stop to breakeven, but trading small 'testing size'








Split the stops on this SOXS entry @ $11.91-
Noticed the stall @ $12.04- split the stops- left 1/2 @ $11.92, raised 1/2 to $11.97 .
Will look to target again but try for a tighter entry .





Being aggressive with stops as we approach the prior highs again.


With a 'breakout of the AM highs- can these develop further momentum even though it has already moved up +4% from yesterday's Close.?


The immediate answer is - "Not Yet" .
Notice how the prior pullback tagged the trend line precisely-
Ok- got a small gain here- and a stop out on the pullback




Done this pm- sideways action -other things to do that are more productive.

I added to both SARK and AAPD swing positions at today's Close-

Concerns about China & Europe slowing is affecting DE- Global MFG reports tomorrow-



CAT has been an out performer - and as a major Equipment MFG, should benefit from infrastructure construction in this country.
It also relies on the Global construction, mining - and the perceived slowdown in China is perhaps a headwind, as well as the recession in
Europe...
Prior High made in Feb, and successfully tested and saw a breakout in August should represent a major area of support if price weakens.




Treasury yields moving sharply higher- 10 yr- 4.496%

As human beings, we are anchored into the near term events- recency bias I think it's called- We have relatively short term perspectives-
So, consider that we had a bullish run up in the fall of 2021, and faced a new reality as we entered 2022- Stocks -in general- gave back -20% or more for Tech ,
and bonds failed to be the "safe" trade.
The industrials -as a group have outperformed - establishing a new high in August 2023, about +8% over the 2021 high- However, that uptrend is seeing a lot of give back now, and we have returned all of the 'paper gain' from 2 years ago .
Now, If you say to yourself, I'm back to even with 2021- on a Price basis you would be correct- but on a COLA basis- you have lost Money if you failed to exit when you had that +8% gain made in AUGUST. That's correct- Inflation was high in 2022- and the spending value of today's $102.14 dollars are not the same as the spending value of 2021's $102.14 dollars.
The industrial ETF over that period in a weekly chart - Shows that Price today has declined below the high made in 2021.
The question- for investors- is, if you didn't take some profits when you had winners- what are your real cost of living averages for the past 2 years?
This is the XLI- Industrial ETF.




This is the reality of the S&P 500 ETF -

[sd]

9-22-23

Futures in the Green- WHY? What is the catalyst for this early Optimism?

AAPD,SARK premarket are both in the RED- Just doubled my position size in each- still showing a net gain but will have to
set a stop to not take a loss..

RIG is up premarket as is OIL pricing. WTRI still above 90.00
Gas prices are on the increase across the country-
I see that the refiners- VLO and MPC are trending at new highs.
XOP-OIH have both been in decline this week.

With the indexes all tracking similarly, and Sept into October seasonally weak - Notice how in 2021 the uptrend declined hard down almost to the 150 ema-




Typical Whipsaw Open- Took out my SARK position $39.30 on the gap push down at the Open.



AAPD POSITION INTACT, BUT UNDER PORESSURE. lOOKS likely it will stop out this am.

Will set a stop $22.07- AVG cost $22.12/50 shares.






STOP RAISED AS PRICE MOVES HIGHER- $30.70 - reduces Risk to $0.10, allows for some shallow pullback from the $30.88 high made.

If trade works- will sell 1/2 @ $31.00 - lock in a $0.20 move-

Locked in a partial sell when price hit $30.98- filled lower $30.95 -raised stop on 15 $30.88. 15 @ 30.81 (@ entry)

Price made a higher upmove to $31.02- I left my stop @ 30.88 and $30.81.
Price then weakened, triggered the higher stop as it pulled back to $30.87.
it is presently rebounding higher from that swing - I will raise my $30.81 break-even stop to just below this swing $30.86



As soon as I raised my remaining stop , price failed to move back higher and likely triggers the $30.85 stop
11:37 am price is $0.01 above my stop.




Net average gain was $0.09/share - My 1st -take a partial profit - was my best gain-

Price suddenly jumped back higher on gap up moves-
I reentered $30.94 and will Risk a $30.80 entry stop- If this stop hits, I will Lose my earlier profit, ($0.09/share) and give up $0.06/share)

Experimenting with stops under significant swing lows, and that bullish gap higher following the pullback would indicate- potentially the momentum remains to the upside in TZA late am.

I'll add a trend line to the chart based on the swing lows. That gappiness over 3 minutes is potentially bullish- but that was also an unusual bar action- suggesting a wider spread on the bid/ask over those 3 minutes.

It may simply be too few buyers and sellers exist at the moment-
Will see if my interpretation holds any bullish merit....Otherwise I wouldn't have chased to get back in.
Share size I'm using is 50 shares as I continue to "test" .
Borrowing from Wolverine- @ the LB board- "Take Profits relentlessly"









HMMM Sage Advice.



New buy-stop $31.00




@ 12:35 PM tza RE-ENTRY BUY-STOP ACTIVE

tHIS TRADE STOPS OUT, GIVING BACK THE MAJORITY OF GAINS MADE IN THE EARLIER TRADES-
As noted, this was an early entry using a buy-stop- but it filled without a cross on the MACD or stochastic-


pOSTING THE CHART of the potential upside cross signals seen on the 1 minute chart-


SOXS pm trade- worked - early macd signal - sold in partial lots (10) on a 50 share position- 3 sells into the up momentum, 2 sells on stops trying to give price a bit of room- but above my entry cost--





re-entry on a pullback to the 50 ema- from an extended up move- Early on the MACD with a second stochastic hook- Risk is $0.06


The above trade became a loss as price failed to move higher- It's worth noticing I jumped in ahead of the MACD cross- trying to get that better, lower cost early entry.

I missed the initial 3:30 pm rally. Saw the initial move up was basing, and bought the initial push higher but price continued to drop back inside the channel for several minutes before finally moving in my favor.


As I have started to do lately, with an initial up move I sold a partial netting just $0.06, then again sold locking in $0.13. I had high expectations that Price would close up - but instead it topped sideways, I tightened the remaining positions with split stops, netted $0.15 and $0.16 gains-
I missed the opportunity @ that 3:34 sideways consolidation with multiple bars (6) pulling back and touching the 11.74 price level as the low of the consolidation.
These types of consolidations offer a potential very low Risk entry with a potential to Risk only $0.02- $0.04 cents - by setting a limit buy $0.01 or $0.02 cents above the basing lows, and then setting a stop $0.02 below the low bar of that base.

A similar set up occurred 3:110- 3:20- with [price bars stacking at lows of $11.68 - $11.69 - that actually suggested a MACD Buy-at 3:20 with a bullish blue bar followed the previous small tight blue bar.

I'll clean up the annotations and focus on these 2 price consolidations with an enlarged partial chart view.

What is the point of focusing on winning pennies in day trades? It's fine (and smart) to be testing the waters and any approach with a small position size- but once comfortable with the methods and the operators success ratio, one can feel fairly comfortable in sizing up- So, instead of 10, 25,50 shares as part of the trial and learning curve, (or just using 1 share) once one develops a level of consistency, it's time to gradually step up in size-
I admit I favor a potential breakout out of a consolidation, seeing that bullish push higher as a uptrend continuation- but, many times these moves are just valiant but failed moves to find follow through. I often felt that was smart and prudent on swing trades- but as I start to drill down on day trades- and faster time frame charts, the ATR for a typical price bar is a narrower spread on the 1 minute versus the 3 minute, versus the 5 minute, versus the 15 minute.

I think an ideal combination of viewing price action is to employ a fast 1 or 2 minute chart for the up close view , a 3 or 5 min chart for a larger view- and perhaps a 15 minute multi day to understand the price action within the trend-
For those interested in the intricacies of Price action- AL Brooks - wrote a book or two- and may have a website as well
The Daytrade is a potential opportunity to - Get into a Swing trade position at a better price -
The Swing trade is where the real profits lie- but one has to elect when and where to take some profits off the table- and whether to reinvest...if the trend resumes.
Holding a swing trade from it's Daily/year high to where it breaks the 50 ema is likely seeing a decline of 20% -
The volatility one has to be willing to sit through is my nemesis when it comes to holding swing positions-
I recognize that I have taken Risk Adversity as a motto stenciled on my pillow sheets-
However, don't think we've done well this year - give it a look back over 2 + years and compare to 2021 levels.

Going off on tangents- That's OK, weekend has arrived, it's September 22, the Fed has again reiterated higher for longer as their mantra- and the markets again want to find reasons to game the other side of what the Fed claims to be their policy-

So, drilling down in to Price action- The Market open often seems to be a total Roll of the dice- I feel this is likely MM's or Algos that set up the open- and the rest of us are rather Naïve and at the mercies of the powers that be.... So often does the Open get quickly reversed- it's absolutely amazing that this kind of whipsaw occurs when the MM's can see the entire order flow- and they take and supply liquidity to the markets behind the scenes- It's like playing cards at the table, when the dealer gets to walk around the table and see what everyone is holding.

If I want to do a deeper study- I need to involve a larger time frame chart as well as the faster time frames.
The larger time frame tells us the dominant direction, for example, the 15 minute chart: It tells us whether the trade is trending- and what direction is dominating.






And so , How many of these potential 1 minute crosses of the MACD could have returned a profit if one used an aggressive TR STop-loss after the entry?
How does one confirm the trrade on the 3 minute chart?
How about combining the fast charts with the 15 minute chart for a Risk perspective?



Sometimes you can have information presented that you simply do not grasp fully on a 1st viewing- Particularly on a initial introduction to new concepts- I think that is particularly true when it comes to understanding and recognizing some of the nuances - -like divergences in price versus the indicators- So it is with some of the material presented in Jason's Masterclass- A 1st viewing is simply not adequate- lots there to review time and time again and compare to what one did in a trade, and what one w-c-s- done.
In the final chapter of the video lessons, He discusses a number of random preconceived ideas- that traders may have-
Some of the take aways that I need to apply to my own swing trading is to allow a bit more room when I set a stop - and not to be the absolute control freak I tend to be when it comes to minimizing losses- and, he advocates taking an initial partial entry, but then look for opportunities to add into the trade and allow it to work- for a longer time duration-

The present market environment is the indexes are in a decline- but not in a panic sell-off- So, understanding the environment is essential- That's a shift in the up momentum that the markets had prior to the last Fed announcement- So, I did take 2 bearish positions at the Close Friday - and hope to see that there is a continuation on the Monday Open-

It's fascinating to see the Momentum reversals often occurring at the open- or just a few minutes, in- I've starting sizing up a bit - just continuing to explore the fast time frame with the 3x charts- I particularly think that the small caps are particularly vulnerable in this higher -rates-for-longer environment- and essentially bearish in terms of my expectations for the 4th qtr going into 2024. But- as Rat would say- Trade the charts- not your preconceived Bias's. Sometimes, logic does not prevail- Mkts climb a Wall of Worry- and all that other Euphemisms that get wrapped up in the trading world-



And speaking of bias- and perhaps LOGIC- If Crude is going up, why are the drillers struggling???
I'm looking at Energy to be a good go-to- for a few weeks- with the insecurity about how high prices may go-
Will have to go through the scans to see what is the leadership- Not willing to take a position and see a -5% decline betting on Nat gas- but may take a chance on the Uranium sector with those bullish charts under the radar.

That recognized- the 1 & 3 minute chart view is a compelling field by which to try to interpret which direction will unfold. the goal by focusing there is to gain by recognizing Price action and getting in a step early - ahead of the slower time frames. We'll see-

[sd]

ENERGY dominating recently- so, I'll check out the Energy sector for market new highs using Finviz.com screener- - and set the criteria to stocks priced over $2
and analyst rating of Buy or Better - By Setting that Buy-or Better rating -only 20 stocks show up-



If I take off the sector & analyst Recommendation ,and keep the over $2 - I get 44 stocks making new highs

If I change the Price to be over $5 (which would allow institutions to be owners) I get the list down to 29 companies across all sectors (ANY)




By selecting from the menu bar under the Filters section- See Overview row...click on Charts
Under sectors (11 sectors) make a selection - I chose Energy
To the right- make a selection from the Industry dropdown- I chose Uranium

As an example, URA is an energy ETF that I recently held-
When I go to see what stocks are performing in the Uranium sector- I get a small list of only 5 stocks- all doing well and making new recent highs.





Within the ENERGY-INDUSTRY- dropdown menu are the sub industry groups-


In this day of green energy- isn't COAL among the most dirty Energy sources?


Oil and Gas Drillers
9 charts- on one page- What stands out on a 1st viewing, is that there are 4 in the group that are above the highs made early in the year -
DO,NE,RIG,SDRL all 4 moved up as a group - based sideways August-September and have declined over the past week- SDRL potentially breaking the prior base lows.

OIL and Gas E&P has 7 pages of charts - 12 charts/page 80+charts- If I go up to the "SIGNAL" box along the top of the screener and click on Top Gainers- it only shows 3 stocks- and only 1 is making a new high-
a quick way to scan through the industry groups- and try to find the best performers-



rAIN DAY- Reviewing several chapters in Jason Leavitt's Masterclass-
I'm pleased in my decision to purchase the course. It's very comprehensive, covers a lot of material beyond just Technical analysis for a larger market overview.
This class applies to swing traders/investors, as well as shorter term position or day traders-
Here's a link to an abbreviated sample of some of the subject matter that he covers in a great deal more detail in the Masterclass.
This FREE miniclass is a 2 hr+ sample preview - Worth a watch to judge whether the Masterclass may be of benefit in your trading-
www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBHzXG9Eicw&t=1526s
www.leavittbrothers.com/masterclass.cfm?&CFID=28445474&CFTOKEN=c3ffa5c5ee5b7bed-3A86EA59-155D-974A-75DBF6755C8D952E

[sd]

Sunday pm - 9-24-23
Saw this intro course to ' 'trading for beginners' just posted on Youtube by SMB - May be insightful/interesting to get the overview they provide-

www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qA3yFjdTuA