SD'S -2023 DON'T JUST SIT THERE TO SURVIVE- MOVE&PROSPER!

[sd]

8.22.23 Futures in the Green with 45 minutes to go- Having to play plumber this am- changing out the house water pressure valve....
May not be done in time for the open....



10 am- Plumbing is my nemesis when it comes to home repairs! Fortunately, that went well with just 1 trip to the HDWR store for a new brass pipe filled with sediment, and a new pressure regulator- If you ever have water pressure issues- or the pump runs without shutting off- check for sediment in the pipe to the pressure regulator- Lesson learned the very hardway a decade + ago, when I changed out the pump in the well and didn't need to- A $320 regulator and cleaning out the sediment would have done the trick!

Looks like markets are up to their tricks- Open higher, and take it down!


Gap and Crap Open- Trying a couple of trades - short TSLA today in TSLQ-
Late trade entry in TQQQ will hit my stop for a net loss of $0.02 as it weakens here.





A sharp upside thrust caught me napping- I was setting a trailing buy-stop order above price- but had to chase it to get a fill
I expected it would hit the overhead resistance line of prior highs- but it immediately reverses lower and stops out for a net loss.
It did have a stochastic hook and a psar Buy. and 2 large green bars- Getting played here by the Pro's and Algo's....




Holding a position inside this wedge-



Wedge breaks to the downside- stop hit. Tough choppy day-


Saved from trying other trades for a few hours- Dental appointment-
Here's a screenshot of TQQQ @ 1:40 pm That higher stop as it dropped through the wedge was a Money saver....
Dbl bottom put in @ the $37.80 level

The inverse:SQQQ


SOXL- Opened $22.71 with the am high $22.82, and a quick Slide lower thru the day

I'm holding a SOXS position overnight- It will be a bearish Bet on NVDA making another super beat...

So, NVDA reports after the bell tomorrow, and the Fed talks on Friday from Jackson Hole.
Critical to the Tech sector and Semis is how well NVDA beats and raises ....


HMMM- appears that we may have ongoing issues with the well-
Will deal with it in the AM....The Joys of Home ownership!

[sd]

8-23-23 Holding SOXS overnight- Futures Mixed- Nas in the Red.




Trades working- sold SOXS for a net gain and went to SOXL-

Stop is set at $21.98 and raising with price moving higher.
Nice to have green locked in!







added a buy-stop to add 50 if Price pushes higher here - that would be an add to the 100 share position presently at trailing stops.



Buy stops filled- stops elevated higher- Position size increased - Will this upsurge hold?

i.imgur.com/gvukbkY.png

STOPS RAISED AS PRICE STEPS HIGHER.


bUY STOP TO ADD 50 FILLS- RAISING THE TRAILING STOPS HIGHER AGAIN Holding 176 shares.



11:15- trade is still holding the uptrend! expecting a stall any time now ,but indicators -STO, +DI,CCI are strong
Notice the MACD's have all seen momentum slowing, Histogram is below the 0.0 line- but improving

trade is basing, but does it have another leg up higher?
Stops in place- to net gains, but partial a bit wider.


Weakening? Got a new psar sell signal above price. Note- also had a single psar sell @ 10:40 - a volatile test bar that had a recovery....and preceded a move higher.


2 stop orders triggered -
SMALL NET LOSS ON THE LAST BUY-STOP offset by gains -
Also, I have a new buy-stop set higher- and waiting -should Price make a rebound.
Seeing a red bar and both psars are in sell mode.
expect that my remaining position stop $22.38 will likely trigger soon.
Histogram increasingly bearish. CCI rolling down ; macds heading down .



SOXL rollover on the 1 minute chart dropping through that 50 ema after a pause there.


Back in based on the 1 min chart- with a very tight stop on this 1st R.O.T. ATTEMPT.
These often fail - but seeing some upside higher-
Sold 1/2 -tried to get a $0.10 move- but got $0.06- moved the remaining 50 shares to B.E.



re-entered, and sold 1/2 for a small gain- moved my stop up to just over my entry for a B.E. on that portion-
As often happens, the 1st R.O.T. FAILED TO MAKE A SUBSTANTIAL UP MOVE-
oUT WITH A SMALL GAIN.

A second buy-stop failed here. chart not annotated. Negateds the gain made on the prior buy stop for a $6 loss. raised stop



Good AM results- Both in my plumbing - Had to flush out the water line more this am due to the sediment from overwatering the other day, and changed out the filter -again today.
Trades worked- the tight sell stops netted gains this am in TSLQ which did what seems to be the norm - Gap up on the open - which was a MM manipulation- the Open was the High of Day- and it immediately declined.

tOOK ANOTHER 100 SHARE BUY-STOP ENTRY 1:42- $22.57 sOLD 1/3 TO LOCK IN SOME NET GAIN AS PRICE MOVED HIGHER $22.65 nET +$ 0.08
tIGHTENED STOPS TO GETABOVE ENTRY COST AS PRICE CLIMBS SLOWLY HIGHER.

Mkts are bullish this pm, will see if this position can be held for a larger gain over the next final 2 hours- even with gradually following price with tightened stops- I've reduced the stops to 2 separate- Price is at $22.67, and I'll go with a nominal $0.10 lag- stop raised to $22.59, $22.57
Got a new psar sell on the 1 minute. pRICE PULLS BACK $22.64



Both stops trigger just above break even

As an exercise, I'm trailing price with a declining buy stop for another potential entry.
Price just dropped through the $22.55 level . @ 2:20 pm....CCI putting in a higher low

Caught the upmove -green bars- stop raised to B.e.



Doesn't look like an upside move will evolve...
Stopped out for a $0.03 loss on a smaller 50 share position- Just 'testing' the fast 1 minute time frame.
The Closer I can get a fill near the Point of failure- means smaller net losses-
Also, potentially it can lead to a larger net gain if one captures an uptrend or R.O.T.
This last trade was an early entry on a potential positive up move with price pausing, making an actual move higher.
Did have early indicators signaling on the move- and the buy stop worked.





With the upmove looking positive- I added 100 shares and since I have a net gain on the 1st 50- raised the stop on the entire position to $32.48 for a net smaller $3 loss if the position turns south



@ 3pm , stop raised to my entry avg cost $22.52 - Price @ $22.58 These late day moves are often small and choppy- but could develop into a strong surge potentially. Ahh, as i write this, a see a red bar forming.....



Came close to the stop- but THAR SHE GOES!
Got that wrong- Didn't see price touch that level, but my stop $22.52 triggered- So, I'm out protecting my cost of entry and not participating in this surge...

Shame, would have netted a nice gain with 150 share size in play ...
I still have a decent gain overall today -


I see that Prof Devoid @ LB's board has tightened up his stops when he has a nice net gain-Didn't wait to allow price to retrace to the 34 ema.
He captured 4% on today's move in TQQQ!


NVDA meets and beats- up + $50 after hours, presently up $28 @ $499.00!!!
NVDA is responsible for 7% of the index gain this year!
LOLO as the optimist bought more today ahead of earnings- Smart gal!
I declined- too much of a Risk I thought-
Time to climb back under the Rock!
Someday I may think about investing....for the long haul....but it's hard to get the Bias Boulder out of my point of view!

Tomorrow should see a continuation upside move at the Open for Tech and Semis!
AEHR is a semi testing company that has sold off this month-
sO, A 90 MARKET DAY LOOKBACK FROM mid April including the SMH index
Talk about volatile!

[sd]

8.24.23 NAS & S&P futures in the Green
NVDA had a blowout earnings last night- Very positive guidance moving forward- Chip sector is being pulled up, and this gives some legs for the markets to think about a rally here-
The weakness in recent weeks may see a continued bounce higher- The Fed speak tomorrow will likely be what determines how the markets Close the week.

Strong day yesterday





TQQQ long- 2 orders filled- A total Reversal off the Open!
Good to be patient- This 1st reassert attempt to reverse the Trend did not get a snap back higher move- Stop got triggered . small net loss. -$8.45 /100 shares.


Went long the SQQQ- but price had made a substantial move higher-
Clearly, I expected the 10 am would see the TQQQ trade reverse to the upside- but there was a sideways consolidation, and then the TQQQ dropped further-
SQQQ trade has moved higher- . My stop is within $0.02 of my entry- just a 50 share position -

Getting some Fed Speak now from Jackson Hole- This could turn the market...if it hears what it wants...








TQQQ TRIED A R.O.T. on the 1 min. I took an entry using the trailing psar as a guide with a trailing buy-stop.

Buy stop filled, Price muddled around for a couple of bars, couldn't find any buyers- hit my $38.68 stop.
So, my stop under SQQQ did not trigger, so I'll be rising the stop as SQQQ goes higher.
May wait for a R.O.T signal on the 3 min chart for TQQQ -

Stop triggers

Had to head out to renew my Driver's License...Made another purchase of SQQQ @ $19.71 - a bit of a lag on the move higher @ 11:00- I gave it a $0.20 trailing stop which filled off the $19.98 high as it pulled back to $19.77 trigger.
Here @ 1:50 = mARKETS IN THE red WITH tECH LEADING THE s&p LOWER



tOOK A LOSS HERE THIS 2:30 PM AS I had gone long on the TQQQ bullish upmove -green bar with indicator support here- I also did an ADD on the bull green bar that moved up higher-
I set a stop with the psar below the lower base- and lost approx -$25 on the trade /100 share position. Had hoped for an oversold move higher with this the 2nd base built...



@ 3:30, bears in control - I took a TSLQ and AAPD as swing trades today. Will hold them overnight to see if the markets continue to be weak...

As I checked my positions after hours, I find I made a Typo on my TQQQ stop loss order- The 100 share position - I put in a stop-loss for a narrow loss- but apparently did not double check the order- It was only for 10 shares-, and so I'm carrying a 90 share TQQQ position overnight- at a larger loss- Will I get rescued by a pop tomorrow? Not likely.
d**n, these type of lessons get expensive!

I ended up selling for a large $100 loss in Ext. hours- Poor management on my part in Not dbl checking the order page!
I didn't verify that the order was correct on the order page before I pushed "Send' - so a simple typo

NVDA's big beat yesterday saw a huge follow through gap high Open-with a $0.50 rise- that was the TOP for the day -NVDA closed up with a $0.10 gain above yesterday's Close! A $30.00 give back! Nice run over the past 2 weeks- but it was a choppy process- Today's soft Price action -in the markets- took the wind out of NVDA- Filled the gap.

[sd]

This Thursday evening, I'm quite pissed with my carelessness in not checking my stop-loss sell order .

So, I'll take it as a simple wake up call that i need to pause and step back, follow the basics, and that starts with order execution, Order placement,

Proper position sizing, and controlled Risk- I have been doing well in these areas until this miss.step/carelessness today.

This is a simple process- Follow the guidelines- take the proper trade entries, and exits- , and after several dozen trades, over several weeks, assess the execution and the results.

Follow the instructions, test the net results over dozens of trades- and make small adjustments- tweaks- Eliminate the discretionary early trades, until you've given the basic approach a full run over the course of time and dozens of trades....

Since I'm adopting the 'Devoid" approach from LB's website- very basic MACD upside cross for an entry signal with some variables on when to tighten stops. His approach is simplistic-
Over a number of trades, it works....and can capture some strong trends

[sd]

8.25.23

Friday & the futures are in the green premarket.

How NVDA closes the week dictates the direction of the SMH . Premarket trading is at the $471 level...



The SMH initially opened high yesterday, but again dropped below the 50 ema...Premarket pricing is at the low Closing levels.




Fed will talk from Jackson Hole today- mid morning...
Markets have been weakening this August month- Some of the fundamental information shows credit card debts increasing, and missed payments on the increase.
Retailers give mixed messages, but it seems the consumer is slowing it's purchases. That theme seems to show that the very strong economy due to the bullish (still) employment numbers is softening-
Housing rates above 7% , and lower supply out there- so a drop in the Homebuilders this month - A $10 drop straight through the 50 ema in just 1 day last week for the ITB was large scale selling. ITB had dropped in May and then went on to rally - but what is the catalyst here with the potential for even higher rates potentially this fall if inflation does not come down quicker.... A good time to be cautious and respect the potential seasonal market weakness into and through September....



A lot of stocks have rolled over- and weakened- Rising fund rates are not good for the economy/market...
In Trading today- With the markets often giving one direction at the Open- but then reversing very quickly-
Has to be MM manipulating for us retail suckers that jump in with Fomo- or have stops sitting too tight....

I'll look to wait on the open to see how the 1 minute bars range- and try to use a buy-stop or limit orders outside of the opening range to make a directional entry.
How often does the Opening 1 minute bar - provide a real indication of where the direction is heading-

For example- a gap high Open, that closes lower- Or a gap drop open low, that Closes higher.


Or- TZA yesterday- Bar 1 Opened high, Closed Low. Bar 2 Opened low, Closed higher-
eACH BAR HAD A RANGE OF $0.20



TQQQ -BIG BULLISH $0.60 GAP UP OPEN- $40.88 WITH A HIGH ON THE OPEN JUST UP $0.02- $40.90 WITH THE BAR CLOSING LOWER .
PRICE FOUND SOME SUPPORT AT THE PRIOR DAY'S SWING LOWS AT THE LAST HOUR OF THE DAY- but that bounce failed
As a side note here- how often would such a potential support provide a discretionary entry with an initial stop just a few cents lower?
That's an academic question - for nimble price action readers to consider...




Today's open- Select 1 fund and it's inverse to view the charts and price at the same time-
Tza,TNA indicating a 1.5% move each in opposite directions -


tqqq/SQQQ selected today to watch/trade-
Entry in TQQQ at the open @ 9:30:40 buy as the Open bar moved higher.





tHE BUY STOP ADD FILLED- STOP RAISED FOR THE POSITION TO $37.65



gETTING A REVERSAL AT 10 AM...


Volatile markets took out my stops as Powell talked-

Markets taking his message to be more Hawkish than they wanted to hear- See how this gets digested over the rest of the morning...
AAPL short with a $0.25 T stp

I simply had to see stops trigger- I had a TZA position that went well and then dropped hard and fast-
SQQQ similarly volatile.












Had to work on the water lines again this pm- Had to flush out sediment out of the main line into the house. missed the market's going up this pm-

Indexes managed to Close in the Green!

[sd]

Saturday was a full day of working on the well. as well as a lot on Friday. I overwatered the yard/plants this week. Sediment got into the pump- potentially from a cave in from the side of the well- as I drew the water table down too much?
I had to flush the lines out several times by opening the house sediment filter and allowing it to flush into a 5 gallon bucket to get rid of the sediment in the main incoming line.

Plumbing is my homeowner's nemesis.... It seems no matter out how well planned the plumbing project is, since the plumbing is 30 years old, often something unanticipated also needs to be repaired-

In this case, I changed out the 1/4" pipe that went to the water pressure switch; as well as the pressure switch- 2x- as sediment that gets up into that 1/4" pipe blocks the opening in the switch to turn on and off. that tells the well when to turn on and off.

When all was said and done, the pump would run - get up to pressure and properly shut off, but then pressure would drop with no water being used, the pump would turn on and run for quite a while, shut off, and pressure would slowly drop .The on-off cycle would repeat-

The issue is that the sediment must have lodged in the check valve in the pump- installed 130' deep- the check valve allows water to flow in the direction of the house- and then it closes when the pump has built the pressure up and shuts off. The valve that is not sealing, allows the water in the pipe to drain back down into the well, causing the water pressure to drop down the 20 psi level where the pressure switch is set to turn the pump back on- and then shuts the pump off at 40 psi pressure.

I didn't want to open that can of worms that comes with trying to pull the pump and piping out of the well- so, we ended up out at the well where it comes out of the ground, and reworked the piping inside the well cover-
Fortunately in NC , we have temperate weather most of the year, and a frost level of just 6" in the winter- and so a concrete well housing 3' in diameter is sitting on the ground and covers the well, piping. Remove the lid, and access the lines- - Reworked the piping , with 2 compression unions for easy pipe removal, reinstalled the initial sediment filter, and also installed a 1" check valve in the line that goes to the house-
So, about $100 in pvc fittings, glue, pipe, check valve and several hours of replacing the parts, and 2 hours to allow the glue to dry, we had a working well -

[sd]

Jason Leavitt- 'State of the Markets'


www.youtube.com/watch?v=IH3qXBzFmps













He also covers the Tell that the Advance Decline lines weakened ahead of gthe market's rolling over-
Presently we're seeing a majority of stocks below the 20 ma,, breadth is at a deep oversold level- Which way will occur, no one knows...


His take- Present conditions reflect the bearish sentiment of the past few weeks- and waiting to make bets until a clearer sense of the market's directions makes sense...


the Tasty Trade take- Sunday Pm--- Bearish ...

www.youtube.com/watch?v=lX4CZq2f8s8

[sd]

8-28-23 Futures modestly in the Green @7:48 am.
Possum #9 to relocate this am...
TZA swing trade- sold for a net loss at the open. So much for Bias guiding ....
wATCHING- 9:43 - MKTS SOFTENING- Buy stop TQQQ above -trailing stop lower


TQQQ busted .
SQQQ buy-stop order waiting








Swing GNRC - generator mfg- Hurricane season starting- stock had dropped hard Aug. Upmove breakout today.


SQQQ stop triggered as TQQQ moves higher-

Using a trailing stop on this order- stop has raised and is @ 38.62

GNRC SWING ENTRY THIS AM.


NVDA SWING POSITION stopped out this am as it dropped below the swing low, then recovered.
So, NVDA last earnings was another beat and raised guidance- But look at the not very bullish reaction-
NVDA leads the momentum usually in the semi sector- so this doesn't portend well for a continued rise in the Semis- mopre suggestive that we have topped for the time being.

i.imgur.com/NvlY409.png

So, it's 10:44 and we're entering the slop and chop of a sideways range.
Stop triggered $38.63- Losses guessing both directions today- -Time to become a buystander sitting on my hands....


SQQQ BUY STOP FILLS- NOTE HOW A TRAILING BUY-STOP COULD HAVE FILLED AT A MUCH BETTER LOWER PRICE.


cHOPPY AND SLOPPY- 11 AM
SQQQ BUY-STOP FILLED- LET'S SEE IF THIS CAN BE THE R.O.T.




tHE 1 MINUTE & 3 MINUTE CHARTS:


tHE 15 MINUTE CHART WITH BB: Price demonstrating the rise above the 10 ema... but other than the MACD initial up cross,no follow through .


VFS MEME AUTO STOCK - REDDITT CROWD AT WORK HERE-


@ 12:00 tECH IS STILL SLING BELOW IT'S bullish open .

[sd]

8.29.23 Futures went from slightly in the green to slightly mixed/red @ 7am...

Plumbing adventures continue---yesterday afternoon was changing out the kitchen sink-and the non working shut off valves-
Shark bite adaptor from the pvc lines to new shut off valves worked like a charm!


Some economic reports today- to give the markets something to chew on...

China ETF, FXI; KWEB trying to rise off the recent lows....


Storm in the gulf heading for FLA-
Went long GNRC on the bullish upmove-
This can be volatile , so stop is below the recent base lows.


ETN long -infrastructure - the ideal entry would have been @ 218.25 -psar upmove. Strong uptrend- been shook out of this previously.



The RSP- the equal weight etf AND THE Market cAP WEIGHTED S&P both giving up gains in August-



Over the longer term- Note that the EW (blue line) in the multi year chart below dropped below the entry more than the cap weighted-

Similarly, the Cap weighted QQQ's significantly outperform to the upside vs the E.Wt


The reason I was comparing is the consideration that the Cap weighted stocks- if they fall out of favor- will likely drop more on a % basis than the other stocks within the index- but perhaps that assumption is incorrect- The Megacap stocks have more cash, are better able to withstand a market decline- although they will be sold off to protect the larger gains they gave investors...

The so-called Magnificant 7 are responsible for the majority of the market's upmove- so market climbed higher based on just a handful of Mega stocks----
The longer term multi-year comparison:


2023 year:

Medicare Drug negotiation in the news - About time! Drug companies will be fighting this tooth and Nail- Will go into effect in a few years -2026

10 minutes - Futures a bit deeper in the Red- so focus will be an entry on the inverse funds.

Buy stop $27.32 for TZA filled at the open- sold $27.55 with a tight trailing stop @ 9:35




TNA - 1st trade got stop triggered- 2nd trade with Trailing stop is trending well and will lock in net gains if triggered.


Stop is now at $33.67 and is just below the rising 10 ema


seeing a couple of blue pullback bars @ 10:13


10:19 - pullback was shallow, trailing stop did not trigger- As i post this, Price had moved higher, TSTP now $33.86


10:22 T STP $33.95

By now, I would normally be trailing the MOMO move with a stop approx $0.10 below each green bar-
and likely would have been stopped out previously- so, this bit wider trailing stop allows for a bit more volatility- . and eventually will get triggered. Nice gain so far @ 10:25.

I also liked that The TZA opening did just what seems to occur- Popped for a few minutes , and then the TNA trade took over-
I used a buy-stop order just a bit higher than the Opening bid/ask - but trailed a tight manual stop AND CAUGHT A GOOD PORTION OF THE UPMOVE VIEWING THE 1 MIN CHART
@ 10:31 stop is $33.99








ORCL AS A POTENTIAL SWING TRADE on the upgrade today
using a buy-stop to enter above the present basing level.


Weakening- came very close ( $0.01) to the TR stop now @ $34.09!




TR STOP TRIGGERS 10.47


tNA $33.58 RE ENTRY- SELL $33.09 NET + $ 0.53 NET +1.57% -

eARLIER tna TRADE WAS A SMALLER $0.10 GAIN.


A new buy-stop order is set $34.31- not $34.30 as noted on chart-

jUST GOT A PSAR SELL ON THE 3 MINUTE-

BUY sTOP TRIGGERS AS i WAS POSTING-


OK giving this entry a bit wider TR stop $0.25 on the initial entry-


11:24- tna MOMO TO THE UPSIDE... mY tr STOP IS NOW @ $0.01 of Break even. $34.30...
aDJUSTED THE tr STOP TO BE TIGHTER- $0.15 now @ $34.48 -


@ 11:48 - tr STP IS $34.53



pRICE IS ROLLING OVER FROM THE 3 MIN FAST EMA- a PAUSE, OR THE START OF A PULLBACK THAT WILL TRIGGER MY STOP?

iT seems that the markets often have that larger momo in the AM and then slide into a sideways range for the remainder of the day.
Today's Price move presently is a +3.4% gain from yesterday's Close- But the actual move came from well below yesterdays Close as Price sold off at the Open before making a successful R.O.T.

tHE 1 MIN CHART ILLUSTRATES THE pRICE CONSOLIDATING SIDEWAYS


jUST GOT A PSAR SELL @ 11:57 ON THE 3 MIN. Price high today $34.68 I added another buy-stop above today's high $34.70 on the slight chance we get another upside surge


@ 12:14 The Buy-stop filled- and i gave it a tighter $0.15 stop-loss I don't expect to see much more momo this pm , but you never know---
Price bars are getting progressively tighter-

Tr Buy stp is now $34.68 for 80 shares- The momo is definitely stalling out this noon hour I expect this likely triggers my stop


Stop was triggered and sold $34.69 . The divergence in the indicators demonstrated the drop in the momentum- So, I lost $0.50 on the 50 shares bought with the 34.70 buy-stop- and netted a decent gain on the remaining 30 shares bought $34.31. Net gain $0.38 on those shares.

While I don't think we get a quick pm rally, I'll set another higher buy-stop and trail price. Price is in a tight consolidation range -

Tna buy stop filled- and price is slowly creeping up higher- holding 100 shares presently, and the stop is at Break even - with 50 trailing @ 0.11 an d 50 @ $0.10
Pleasantly surprised to see another leg higher, although it is really tame price movements.

The advantage of using the trailing stop is it allows me to check out other potential trades----

TR stops get triggered 1:57 - out 50 @ B.E. and out 50 for a small net + $0.05 gain


Overall, I am pleased with my better executions today, and decent gains relative to the small number of shares - with 50 the typical size I used today on each trade,.
Also, by recognizing the slowing momentum and tightening the stops more aggressively, caqptured small gains vs making small net losses.



Buy stop if Price breaks out- in TNA... and also TZA - Price is basing - and Tna looks tired.



@ 2:55 PM, pRICE IN tna HAS BEEN CONSOLIDATING SIDEWAYS FOR OVER AN HOUR.
TZA BUY STOP FILLS- TIGHT TR STOP $0.07


vERY TIGHT tr STP IS WITHIN $0.01 OF MY ENTRY COST....

Trade stopped out @ B.E



@ 3:35- chart looks totally sideways- but I'll try for a higher buystop on the potential for some late day buying jumping in . Likely will just get chopped here...
Buy stop filled and then almost as quickly reversed for a net small loss


Done for the day, relatively pleased with net gains in both TNA and TZA trades- and small net losses - The buy stop application and the trailing stops seemed to perform well today-
I should continue to try to use those trailing buy-stops to get that lower entry on a R.O.T. UP move. That extra cushion of Price gains makes a big difference if one can get the trade well past Break even- both financially, and psychologically.
I also did a lot of buying today in the IRA- Energy/oil- even PLTR, MSFT, and a few intl ETF's- INDA, EWW,EWZ

Courtesy of LB's /Jase He often gets the bigger picture in focus-

[sd]

8.30.23 pre 6 am , futures showing some Red after such a strong day yesterday for the markets...
Hurricane Idalia is now a Category 4 heading into W Florida- with a potential for a storm surge of 16' . 130 MPH winds-
Expected to move inland and curve to the East and back out into the Atlantic near Wilmington, NC

Salesforce reports today- CRM- Critical business software company, should be a reflection on how the overall strength of the business sector is


Open is not trending- Took an initial Buy in TQQQ at the open- it went up momentarily, with a $0.25 trailing stop- It reversed and stop triggered for a $0.10 loss-
Then went into SQQQ with a similar T stp. Potential loss is $12.50 if the trade breaks below today's low $18.02.
I was expecting the markets to try to give a bit of follow thru today - at least initially ....
Buy stop for an upmove in TQQQ...


Filled - followed by SQQQ hitting the Stop

Giving this initial move a $0.30 Trailing stop - which has now risen to $41.59 with an entry @ $41.66
Interesting experimenting with trailing stops- The idea is to get a strong up momentum move and the T Stp gives enough room for some average volatility-

Price reached $41.97 and the T stop $41.67 is just above my cost of entry ($41.66)


@ 10:06- Price has paused just below the $42.00 level - I'm at Break even at this level in terms of net Gains in TQQQ offsetting the Loss in SQQQ and TQQQ trade taken at the Open .

Stopped out $41.85 as i was adjusting chart to show fewer MACD - Will use the faster more responsive 8,12,9 on the 3 min chart.


Price continues to drop lower below the stop....


I took a discretionary entry as Price made a low matching the earlier swing low- and bounced but that discretionary trade failed immediately and went lower and immediately stopped out-
As I experiment with some variations- the discretionary trades that do not have indicator support often fail...
The buy-stop trade I have entered is working @ 10:40 I'm using a tighter $0.20 buy stop initially- will widen that to $0.25

Price t stp is at my entry cost and price bars appear to be in pause mode- Will wait to widen the T stop until I have a decent net gain -



Stop is triggered for a $0.04 net gain WooHoo!
i.imgur.com/Vw2a00u.png

New entry- using a higher buy-stop $41.81 and a wider $0.30 Trailing stop- That stop has now risen to $41.62 - Risk is now $0.19, but Price is pulling back as i write this- and stop is triggered.


I'll ease up on trading for a bit this am- Mkts appear to be in decisive - and a bit choppy .


I have a number of swing positions on- will take a review of how they are performing ....
Potentially I could have allowed the stop to be just under the morning swing low base- $41.50



12:00 -Long Soxl as a buy stop fills- I'll manually trail this- Price is presently $23.61 Entry Buy- stop $23.55
Stop loss now @ $23.53 with a psar sell signal generated on this last price bar pulling back.




SOXL HAD MADE THIS R.O.T. @ 2:30 - i was not following it this afternoon- Put stops under the swing positions and headed out to pick figs....
took a flyer on the later green bar prior to the topping tail- Risk is now $0.06


Tightened stop as the momo stalled- net gain $0.05- played it for a nickel



Bought both CRM and DG just prior to the Close and their earnings report- Justified as I hadn't bought any lottery tickets recently -

Nice pop in CRM on an earnings beat- up $+12.00 after hrs- DG heading lower....

[sd]

8.31.23 fINALLY GETTING A SLIGHT BIT OF RAIN IN nc DUE TO iDALIA- Been in drought for weeks now with only a sparse pop up T storm in the past weeks.
Premarket futures mixed- earlier- but now in the green slightly @ 7:30
DG reports today. CRM had a nice +5% pop. DG is showing a -$25 drop...premarket- that's exactly why holding through earnings is such a crapshoot- UGH- so much for taking a lottery flyer...
I actually thought DG would be sitting in an ideal spot for the potential for a slowing economy....So much for trying to apply a bit of bias to a trade- when it's an unknown where the stock will go based on management's report...

I put on a number of swing trades- Loaded up in the IRA- but I can't help but realize this very late August Rally is right at the doorstep of September- a good month to sit on one's hands-
Of course, this has been a total surprise market so far-

Earnings has been a mix- companies that beat and guide higher are the expectation - since PE's are considered to be on the high side- and those that cannot meet and beat are getting clobbered.
The Financials are having a tough go-
Energy has been trending higher in August while many market segments have dropped and are trying to make a rebound.

I'll be taking a loss on the DG position if it indeeds opens down that far- about -$250.00 on just 10 shares ! Cannot allow the 1st opportunity to Sell and take the loss to turn into a deeper loss. Ideally, the other positions taken will see upside to offset that large a loss.

Uber's attempt to reverse the August downtrend recently is a testament to try and try again. It's a name favored by Mark Mahaney as a strong story- but the stock hasn't hung in well during the August decline- Buy the dip opportunity for an investment? The overall trend has been rising over the past year, with August seeing the recent high- 13 analysts project increased earnings on a year over year basis- ...




PCE report came in matching expectations- but consumer income and spending slightly below estimates.

Futures @ 9 am Dow is up, Nas & S&p slightly green.. but higher-
Today I'll be focusing on DG at the Open- I'll watch that 1 minute Open bar- and set a market stop- since I already know the MM will open this way down - I'll look for the low bid just ahead of the Open, and see where it actually opens-
And may hit the market sell if it looks to be heading lower on that 1st 1 minute bar. Another crap shoot- of my own making I must admit...
I will also be viewing the positions I've taken this week- To trim if needed on weakness- Premarket, energy positions are all bid higher- Energy has been leading for August...

DG gapped way down - 129.88 open, 129.86 low- had a higher move on the 3 minute , I set my stop initially below the open low- and then raised it to be below the bar low that moved higher- hoping for another higher bar to follow-
That stop got triggered $131.75 as Price pushed lower-




UBER: bUY-STOP ENTRY WORKING-


Heading into the long labor day weekend-tepid price action today, Energy positions holding up, but I had a round trip reversal in PLTR- I had a $1 gain yesterday that rolled over and became a $1 loss today---
DG was the big loser-
Hopefully the markets can make a winning Close for the week Tomorrow.
I've tightened stops this am - and CRM pulling back hit a tight stop to lock in the $100 gain - I've elected to cut any trade heading lower off at the knees before it becomes a significant loss-
I'm a lousy "investor" with expectations that the position needs to prove itself- without a lot of downside-volatility.
It's also not a terrific time seasonally....so, perhaps the volatility we have seen in early August may resume in September- A good time to be cautious....

Late afternoon I made a series of trades focusing on TQQQ, and SQQQ - back and forth using small position size and the 1 minute time frame. Those trades ended up being a net wash - but i got some good seat time- studying individual price bars .
Caught a nice run in SQQQ in the closing 15 minutes




Worth while- Adami, Nathan, Worth
www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYl27mx2WK8

Are you Aware, as an Investor in the broad stock "Market"- That your investment peaked in December 2021? That your net return from that point -1 year, 8 months- is -3% - Of course, if you were investing monthly in your IRA during the 2022 decline, those funds are now in the money as the market declined almost -25% and Bonds lost -1`8%

[sd]

9-1-2023- Futures well into the green Early this Friday ahead of a 3 day weekend- Jobs report out today @ 8:30- Plenty of time for things to change- 170,000 jobs estimated...
ODD that the SOXL- semi 3x long is in the RED....AVGO did not blow out results as hoped for- dropping -5% -$44 this am overnight- so that's precipitated the weakness in Semis- Perhaps that may even be the 'TOP' for the time being in the SMH
A weakening in the jobs report will be what the Fed wants to see....supporting the idea that the employment sector is softening as business' and the economy gives further signs of a potential slowing continues...
Stock market should like that bit of
Tepid markets yesterday- uninspired price action in the PM.

My loss taken yesterday in DG's gap down at the Open could have been improved had I been a bit more patient - After the initial big drop and push lower , Price rebounded a bit higher- I was looking for a stair step higher upmove, buy sold as Price weakened @ 10 am. I was viewing on a fast 1 or 3 min chart-, and didn't want to allow the Open to be retested.




The look back -using the Weekly charts for the S&P, and the stellar Nadaq- While we've made quite a strong recovery from the sell-off in 2022, both indexes are 'Losing' relative to the 2021 highs.
So, the investor that keep buying each month in his or her IRA sees gains from those investments in 2023, the markets are net stalled out for those assets that peaked in 2021-
What will this September bring? Our recent swing low in August from which we are attempting a move higher need to be a line in the sand for investors-




Will be busy with Family business to attend to today- Little time for trading- If I did try any trade at the Open, would have to give it a Tr.Stp

School Loan repayment starts in October- This will be a hard reality check for a lot of folks with student loan debt that has been put on hold by the gov't.

Retail stores have claimed that "shrink" thefts, and now the reduction of free cash being less due to the student loan repayment requirement will be a drag on the economy with consumers under pressure...

[sd]

9.5.2023

9-5-2023 Futures in the RED with a couple of hours before the open- Nas -65, S&P -10
Got to spend an hour watering--September is starting off hot and dry!


wITH 20 MINUTES TO GO BEFORE THE OPEN- Open looks to be in the Red based on premkt pricings.
Energy positions giving some small % pulling back....

SMH semi index etf is down, NVDA down, TSLA down, AAPL indicated lower.
Dow futures in the green---

The tell today is how will CRM behave, as well as NVDA- Both made new recent highs,
CRM had a solid gap up last week, followed by a 2nd day that held the gap - but closed below the prior day's low and took my stop out-

Tightened stops in the Portfolio- added a couple of Energy names- but with tight stops -PXD, ET,CTRA

Volatility had been complacent at the End of August as the markets tried to rise- Today the $VIX is popping higher as markets failed to make a turn up @ 10 am.



Coinciding with a higher $vix, Premarket pricing indicated that the TZA would see a potential gap high open- which indeed occurred.
Premarket pricing @ 9 am showed a price @ $25.45-
The actual Open price was slightly higher $25.54 and the Low of the day matched that premarket low. I failed to jump in early on- and missed the big run higher thru the 1st 15 minutes.
Price Opened $25.54 , topped out high @ 9:45 $26.53- a full $1 upswing!

Notice that in the 1st minute , Price went from $25.45 and the 1st 1 minute bar Closed @ $25.75 - a $0.30 price range over that 1 minute....


a Market Buy at the Open could fill well away from the Open price- This week I'll '
test' how well a market order to buy at the open fills versus a limit order just a few cents off the premkt pricing.
What is worth noting is that we did not get a 10 am reversal of Trend to the upside for TNA---So bearish sentiment prevails for the small caps.





Held RIG in both accounts as a short term swing trade- favoring Energy/ drillers- It weakened today, and i elevated stops to become a seller- to lock in net gains-
I added more energy positions today, as RIG weakened and hit my tightened stops to lock in some +4.5% gains.








The 3 minute charts -
Often the Open does not define where the day's direction may end up.
SOXS opened above the Friday Close- a bearish move on the Semiconductors.
Premarket pricing ahead of the Open, saw a lower open price- and a Low just $0.03 below the Open.
As the 3 min chart illustrates, the price action was choppy and volatile, in both directions until the 10:03 am trend reversed to the downside.
1st chart is a 3 minute, 2 day chart: big gap move off the Open from the prior Close-


Enlarging the 3 minute with a 1 day chart: We know we had a gap up Open - but only Bar 1 Closed bullishly . Bar 2 Closed inside the Price move in Bar 1.
Bar 3 weakened further, with a lower Close- but above the Opening bar low, but Closing below the Open price- A clear sign that the bullish trade didn't have much backbone.
Price pushed below the Open until 9:50 - Notice the precise matching lows of the prior 3 bars-


let's view the Price action from the Open on a 1 minute chart: How do we make money using the ta indicators as confirmation?




How tactical can the 1 minute chart be? Consider the histogram as price moves above the 0.0 line.

[sd]

9-06-2023
Futures in the RED-
As the indexes had lackluster performances yesterday, the weakness in the Russel stood out-
TZA/TNA will be the likely focus at the Open today as a day trade-

tza,tna PRE MKT BID PRICING IS muted-
Soxs, sqqq are shown directionally opening higher.

Took a couple of DAY trades-SOXS, SQQQ, TQQQ, - and the turn South for the mkts @ 10 am seems to be setting the tone for the day.
Experimented with orders filling at the entry- the SQQQ went higher, stop raised to B.E.



@ 10:48 - set a buy-stop order above the consolidation range high- pending a trend higher continuation with a $0.20 Trailing stop-
I'm using small 10 share positions this week as i experiment and explore trying to time the various signals-
I missed having set a trailing buy-stop on the am choppiness.

getting some follow thru to the upside - will change the Tstp to a mkt sell on an extended up move if one develops.

As of 10:55, the upmove to $27.01 now has the T stp $26.80 - so the Risk of this entry is reduced to $0.05

The morning start was certainly a chop fest for the markets!
@ 11:09 The T stp is now just above my cost of Entry as price climbs higher -So, it now becomes at least a break even trade-
The question becomes- will the trend continue higher today - on the next pause and consolidation will the $0.20 value be wide enough to stay in the position- or will that next pause turn into a deeper decline?
@ 11:00, All sectors in the RED




11:15- TZA position with the T stp isw in profitable territory with Price trending- If i had a larger position size, I would be selling a portion on this move, or attach a very tight T stop -




Tightened the stop to $27.98 on the pause/Red bar- Added a buy-stop to buy on a move above today's high ($27.12- B STP $27.14.

Buy stop filled- changed the stop order to 20 Sell @ $27.07 -

The tight stop will lose $0.07 on the entry added shares buy-stop $27.14 but that loss is offset by raising the stop from a trailing stop to a fixed manual stop if price rolls over and loses upside momentum.


11:28 stopped out as price gaps lower - Let's see how this evolves...


Buy-stop above the high by $0.02 fills - T stop $0.20

Weak action- I set a buy-stop for TNA long $33.48


@ 11:50 action is undecided. TZA basing sideways, looking weak, TNA attempting to put in a higher low.


Swing trade- Shorting AAPL - revenue growth rate is slowing- Valuation is excessive. Market re-evaluating?
China bans Gov't workers from using I phones!




Noon time- Price has based in a wide range for the past hour- Testing the prior highs- @ 12:24


12:30 breakout.


wENT TO LUNCH with the trailing stop in place to come back and find that the Trailing stop filled just $0.01 above the entry buy stop order- Had i been watching and willing to use a manual stop, would have likely netted an additional $0.10 with a stop @ $27.30



nET GAIN OF JUST $0.10 ON THIS BUY-STOP ENTRY



sAW A FOLLOW UP TRADE THAT TRIGGERED THE BUY Stop- that was a 4th try to push higher , that made the initial up move, and then turned and pulled back to trigger the stop-
Some afternoons, you get a surge higher into the Close- and sometimes it's Nada.

As can be seen on the chart, the afternoon peaked near the $34.60 level, and that became a relative resistance for the remainder of the day, with a bit of a push in the final 5 minutes-
These tight sideways ranges don't offer much opportunity for net profits in a sideways range.



At the EOD- EXPERIMENTING WITH small size to get seat time- in trading. Without worrying about the "RisK" it is easy to take the trade-set the stop and see the net result-

From the LB website- Prof D's trades-today in TQQQ-
1st trade was him front running the indicator all based on the volatile price movements.
Trade 1 fails- no indicator signal.
Trade 2 - entry on the 5 minute signal- fails -so, this was the 1st real R.O.T. attempt- or as D says -a reassert-meaning Price is trying to go against the prevailing trend-
Trade 3 @ 1:15 pm +/- was on another MACD cross on the 5 minute. Note that D set a take a profit stop-loss as price had moved higher- In taking trades that are counter trend to the primary momentum, that's prudent-



The TQQQ trade D took went sideways- just above the stop


The same TQQQ chart for the day _) tHIS CHART HAS THE 12-26-9 MACD WITH THE BLUE HISTOGRAM BARS - tHE 0.0 LINE CROSS OF THE HISTOGRAM BARS MATCHES THE FAST LINE/SLOW LINE CROSS OF THE MACD LINES. That's the basis for Prof D's entry signal on a 5 minute time frame - but this chart is set to a 3 minute time frame- so, the signal may be a bar ahead of the 5 minute signal....
The 5 minute chart will be set just below this - Why a faster time frame? Earlier signal potentially. for a larger % gain.... It also comes with the likelihood of more frequent false or failing signals....The yellow histogram bars on the Price chart are set for a faster potential signal- 8,12,9 .
Why consider an earlier or faster entry signal- Also, it's closer to the Point of Failure for a potential stop-
There is a definite difference in taking a counter trend signal- versus taking a With trend signal- One tries to make a Reversal of Trend- fighting the momentum-- The other is going With the flow of the prevailing tide....so, understanding that taking a R.O.T. potential trade has a greater probability of failure- -Particularly on the 1st R.O.T.


wELL worth noting- is that the momentum is against you when taking a counter trend trade-so, the advantage of a slower time frame- is that fewer signals will be generated, but that means fewer failed entry signals as well. Predominant is that the Trader needs to have the focus to determine the primary trend direction in that time frame- and perhaps the next higher time frame- to really understand if one is trading With the Tide- or trying to Buck the Tide.
I can personally attest that it is much easier to be paddling with the Tide- as against it- I once found myself miles out from the Mass coast in the Atlantic in a 14' kayak trying to paddle against the outgoing wind and tide- I was totally unprepared - and 30 years younger- One of those life lessons.....

Getting back to trading stocks- If TQQQ was downtrending- then SQQQ would be uptrending....

So, the Premarket prices told us this would Open above the yesterday's Close- It actually opened $17.83 - a few cents below the premarket pricing (arrow) -
It made a Low below the open of $17.79- That was just $0.04 lower!
The chart below shows the MACD 12-26-9 on a 5 minute time frame- Bullish from the higher Open- and the MACD stayed bullish until the 11:15 crossover - when price had a slight decline- the MACD was very late in suggesting a reentry finally at 12:40- almost at the peak of the upmove.

tHE iNVERSE TO THE tqqq trade is SQQQ- which shorts the tech sector- This is likely the ideal trade set up- where you could be a buyer at the Open, see less than a $0.05 decline, allow price to trend sideways for the 1st 30 minutes with that low not very volatile- and then see that surgbe higher @ 10 am....

Here's a point worth understanding- Just because the MACD makes a downside cross is Not the reason to Sell- The MACD is a momentum indicator- so, if one had the flexibility, one could have stayed long through the 2 price pullbacks in the Am and then considered where to stop out in the pm....
The Macd re-entry signal after 12:30 was way too late- as shown by the gold faster histogram bars, and the PSAR signals.

Part of the exercise is to explore the strengths and weaknesses of any approach that uses technical signals.

[sd]

9-7-2023
@ 7 am futures in the RED- Dow flat, S&P down small, -15 ; , Nas down -105 but a few hours can make a difference.
Energy positions stopped out-RIG pulled back and triggered stops to lock in gains- with OIL pricing up, energy should be holding - but that's too logical.
Carry over swing trade AAPD- is an AAPL short- Took a 150 share position yesterday $21.26....
Today it is indicating a gap higher Open +3% - AAPL is down -$4.72 pre market...indicating a lower open $178.00 +/-





gETTING THE 'BIGGER' PICTURE view- of possible lower support levels.



I'm going to divide the position into 5 each 30 share lots-
I'll be selling one lot at the Open-
I'll give one 30 share order a $0.25 Trailing stop.
I'll give a 3rd order with a $0.40 Trailing stop.
one 30 share order - I'll give a $1 trailing stop -
And the final 30 share lot I'll follow price action on the 3 minute chart from the open-

Here's the 3 MIN PRICE CHART FOR YESTERDAY:
Notice the gappy price moves- but -at least for yesterday, the price swings highs to pullbacks were generally-initially fairly tight.
Selling at the Open ensures getting a fill for 30 at 9:30- It's difficult to trust that this decline in AAPL will last for many days-
The other trailing stops potentially (ideally) won't get filled today.... but, that's yet to be seen.
As Wolverine- at the LB website suggests- 'Take Profits relentlessly' but the art is to allow a winning trade room to run and become that big gain.
I don't trust betting against AAPL except on a short term basis...

Premarket- the Open favors the bears- SOXS is up +5% and the SQQQ is up +3% - Would have been a nice gain if I had held a position overnight-
TZA - up a modest +1.44% with an hour to go




3 OF THE 30 SHARE LOTS TRIGGERED IN AAPD:


I have a TZA trade on with a $0.20 Tr Stop that was up to my entry cost- See how that works out ....



I had hoped the AAPD trade would open up and continue to trend higher- That didn't work out - It went higher for 4 minutes, peaked and turned lower- The TR stops worked on 2 orders-
and, I'm using the final $1 Trailing stop as a wide stop- above my entry cost- just in case Price wants to continue to move higher over the next day or two-
The remaining 30 share stop is a manual stop- presently below the am swing low- and below the $22 round number- $22.91.

TZA STOPS OUT FOR A NET +$0.46 gain- and I went long the TNA inverse - also with a $0.20 TR stop-
TNA looked to make a 1st R.o.T. but weakens-


Let's explore the losing TNA trade - I took the trade after TZA stopped out automatically trying to flip and reverse-
My order to BUY was on the 3rd 3 minute green bar- Dude- have to be more aware and stalking/monitoring the charts for those potential trades to get into them at a point that is Closer to the swing low- or the point of Failure-

That was a bit of a chase- entering 5 or 6 minutes after the 1st signal green bar...
This kind of trading requires a tighter entry with a lower risk ideally. I was also watching the AAPD trade, and thus relied on the Tr Stop - to manage the TNA trade.








d'S tqqq Long trade from the LB website


Notice he took the 2 entry signals,
Entry 1 caught a strong multi bar upmove, but pulled back sharply over the next 1 hour- and he set a stop to lock in a small net gain.
Entry 2 was taken on a lower pullback reversing higher with a bullish upmove reversing the trend. Sold going into the CLOSE- Position was held for 4 hours through 3 ea $0.30 cent pullbacks-
By holding through the duration, and with price trending a bit higher despite the volatility- Trade 2 captured approx $0.60 .




Previously, when the markets were in an uptrend, Prof D would hold and allow price to come back to the 34 ema- as long as it was above his entry cost-
Recently, it appears he is quicker to set a tighter stop on a pullback- ensuring that the trade willbe a net gain vs loss.