SD'S -2023 DON'T JUST SIT THERE TO SURVIVE- MOVE&PROSPER!

[sd]

8.9.23 Futures slightly in the green premarket.

Energy appears to be higher this am due to rising energy prices due to less supply coming on line- despite the China economy slowing-
I hope this trend holds- As energy and exploration XLE,XOP are 2 positions recently added back in the IRA.

Took a small position in NVO yesterday as a potential swing trade-or investment----if it's drug results continue to be viewed favorably-
Biotech is always a crapshoot- Looks to open down -3% today-


Dumped PAVE- Had a relatively large position 300 sh and sold all for a small net loss- less than $50.00 between both accts.
Call me impatient, it didn't get any follow thru higher today - I thought the infrastructure names would get some momentum to get out of this week + base-


Added SLB, CTRA in the IRA


Tried a small position in TQQQ at the open, it dropped lower and stopped out- SQQQ is ripping higher. Bearish....Similarly soxs, -TZA opened higher- basing. I would think it also goes higher ...






tza TRADE IS WORKING- i'LL ALLOW A WIDE STOP - AND NOT TAKE A SMALL GAIN HERE



sTOP ELEVATED



Again :



Slowing momentum @ 12 pm



Limit order filled- will the $24.70 basing low hold?



The limit entry in the sideways consolidation was worth a try, because it gave me a very defined level $24.70- that my expectations Price would bounce higher from- and potentially resume the uptrend.
stop was rtriggered for a net $0.05 give back of the profits.


Learning a lot @ the LB's site-
some 'disussions' are enlightening into personalities and approaches...




TZA is in full decline this afternoon!
Didn't try to go to TNA- Got the grill started.



TZA @ 1:25 pm slowed, made an attempt to push back higher and Reverse the decline-
Took an entry here based solely on the Psar and 2 minute chart- and very tenative indicator turns.
Not seen yet on the 5 minute chart.... It appears that the markets are trying to see a turn to the upside, so this trade will be followed tightly with a stop if price manages a move higher...
i.imgur.com/32x8edR.png



3:20 pm, came back and saw- late- the potential early signals- and took an entry here as Price pushed above the prior green bars-
Had to slap a market buy on the move- Price followed thru slightly higher , and I adjusted my stops to within $0.02 of the entry-
Smart choice this time.... Loss of $2 on 100 shares- Initially I had jumped the stop to my entry cost $24.46- but then dropped it by $0.02 to $24.44 .
I looked left on the chart- and saw Price Fail top break that same level earlier.

Done for the day- Errand to run....


DEVOID @ LB website takes the time periodically to illustrate 'teaching charts' for those of us that are new to his approach & perspective.



Notice that his Entry was a R.o.T. with the MACD and stochastic as the trigger- verified by the Price action.
I will copy his Chart selection and mark his Entry- signal, and compare with both the 2 min and the 5 min time frames and initially consider the 12,26,9 Signal.

Will I be able to 'see' the chart indicators similarly? I already know that I would have been reluctant to sit through some of the price volatility following the entry- but as he previously pointed out- the real gains are made by maxing out the hold when possible- both for the time frame in Day trades, and also in swing trades-
In Swing trades- you have the advantage of a gap higher open if held overnight (or a drop gap )

TQQQ 5 min chart with standard & faster MACDs along with a confirming Stochastic - I'll cancel the CCI and ADX for this chart view.
On this 5 min chart- There is 1 stochastic setting, and 3 different MACD settings.
I also have left 2 PSAR settings for comparisom




He refers to the /NQ larger time frame to provide a perspective on the index trend on a higher time frame- Likely this would also be realized by using the QQQ's.



So, the important point he made- is by understanding that the prevailing trend of the index is in a decline, he gets more aggressive in taking profits, and protecting his position.


Let's give the chart parameters of a test on this 8*-9-23 day-

3 different MACD parameters- .
The 8/12 saws an attempt for Price to make a 1st Trend reversal from the decline.

[sd]

8.10.23 Futures in the green ahead of the CPI!


Copy of the TQQQ chart from yesterday's post.
Essentially, this is a view of how accurate the Indicator signals are relative to price action.
I'll also compare with a 2 min chart with similar indicators with a view to compare the earlier signal potential for the 2 min chart-
And also how many cross signals are fails.
In the 5 min chart below, Note that the initial early attempt by Price to reverse the downtrend- @ 11:30 by price bar closing above the 3 ema, and was followed by a 2nd bar that also closed above the 3 ema, - This generated a cross on the very fast 8,12,9 ema .
Important to note- that an initial 1st reversal attempt to reverse a downtrend often fails...

Also worth noticing, is the 2 overhead psars did not trigger to a Buy- It was on the following blue bar that pushed above the declining fast psar (Pink dots)
that triggered a Psar Buy- but that bar Closed Lower than it opened....The next bar closed even lower, and as price declined on the next bar, it triggered a fast psar sell.

The next MACD signal 12,16,9 occurs 25 minutes later. Price matched the Low made of the previous bar, but Closed higher.
Will have to come back to this later- prepping for the Open.







CPI report- longer term is coming in higher
Jobless rates coming in higher than expectations.
see how the market sees the impact of these ....

This seems to reduce the potential for another Fed hike in September, and lower in October.


3 POSITIONS ON - stops in the green on 3 limit low orders that filled yesterday- Sometimes you get Lucky when you don't deserve it.

@ 9:57 am- SOXL position still trending , locked in Gains in TNA, TQQQ Markets still bullish


With decent gains thanks gto tight trailed stops- Tried an Add 50 to the active SOXL position as it made a stall, potential base.
I liked the trade because I had a nice profit cushion- and the stop was just $0.08 away.
Price failed to hold that $24.30 level, and came back to trigger the stop for 50 +49 shares.

Lost $4 on the 50 add, Made $1.24 on the shares purchased and held overnight.
A buy-stop waiting if price moves above today's high.


That Buy-stop filled on a higher move, but failed to hold- stopped out $24.15 for a loss on that trade- Had I not been posting, I would have stopped out higher....
Still decent gains overall today



sTOP TO b.e. INITIALLY



sTOPS RAISED



TZA stop will net +$0.30 @ $24.28 stp, $23.98 entry .
Stop filled $24.27 Net + $0.29- Not too shabby


Viewing the 2 min chart- saw a 1st R.O.T. that failed-
As price dropped lower, it appeared to make a bullish push higher that looked "promising" .
Tried an entry on the green bar, with the 2 min MACD's both showing bullish crosses.
My entry was immediately followed by a large Red bar-


pRICE CAME down to the wire- stop $37.28
i.imgur.com/BFIa7ih.png[/img

Got an upmove, tightening stop to $37.38 under the swing base low.

EOD- Net Profits in the Trading account- Kept gains in SOXL,TQQQ,TNA,and TZA.





offset by losses in several sells in the IRA- Sold CTRA for a loss, saw drops in the XLE and XOP positions today- stops are at B.E.
Sold INDA position for a small net loss .
Markets unable to hold what was a bullish day initially- Notice the big green bar at the Open on this 2 hour chart-
The bearish rejection of the early enthusiasm is a Tell on the skittishness in the markets.






Posting the 1 day charts using the 2,5 minute charts- Vertical line is done at the Stochastic upside cross to see how that coincides with the MACD signals

1st chart The SQQQ short Tech- initially was selling off and downtrending at the Open.
the 2 min chart sto and the fast MACD signal an entry at 10:08 am $18.32 - the psar 10:12 - Price volatility saw price drop $0.10 , on a lower bar, but the swing low prior to the signal was not retested. $18.21 was the low- Worth noticing- an attempt by Price to reverse occurred earlier 9:40 as several Blue bars pushed above the 3 ema and were a bit higher- No indicator confirmation, although the 3 ema made an upturn- Jumping in on what appeared to be a bullish price reversal would become a losing trade because one wanted to front run the indicators. I think this is important principle to

The 5 min chart sto signal matched the 12-26-9 @ 10:42 as a 2nd green bar formed. As expected the faster MACDs settings had crossovers 5 and 15 minutes earlier.
Notably, the 10:40 early signal $10.45

cOMPARING THE Potential gains - If the Entry trade was held and sold at the CLOSE- The early 2 min entry gain would be $0.81 or +4.4%
The later entry on the 5 min would yield a + 3.4% gain.

If a sell was taken when stochastic crossed lower along with a MACD downside cross-
That weakness occurred 11:28 am $18.75 for a net gain of $0.43%
The 5 min cross occurs 12:35 @ $18.80 for a net gain of $0.30 due to the higher entry cost waiting for the 12-26-9.



i think doing this kind of signal analysis- 2 min vs 5 min and different MACD cross overs across the 6 etfs is worthwhile- but time consuming-
For the SQQQ trading, this was downtrending at the Open- so a R.O.T. was being looked for.



The Inverse of the SQQQ is the TQQQ- Tech 3x long.

These were going to open higher at the Open- assume a market buy order fill at the Open $40.66- stop gets set initially at the low of the 2 min bar...
Price trended higher until 10:00 and went sideways.
I highlighted the fast MACD cross that also sees a stochastic cross of the slow line- The fast PSAR as a stop-loss would be triggered here...
Both PSAR values went into sell mode as Price declined a bit- The tight stop would have been triggered for a net gain of $0.84 or +2% gain in 30 minutes.
Viewing the 2 min chart, there were a few green bars that appeared bullish, but never triggered a Psar buy-stop signal- In the case of the 2 minute chart- perhaps the ideal psar to use with a buy-stp order is the slower Psar....
See the Fast Psar that would have been triggered by the green bar 10:54 am- but not confirmed by a stochastic .or MACD cross.
Trading Price bars alone, a stop set under the low of the green bar would provide a narrow loss.

@ 11:30 am both psars would be triggered. The MACDs both were making upside crosses. 3Green bars follow, allowing the stop to get raised to B.E. OR A VERY SMALL LOSS.

Following , the MACD makes a positive cross, but stochastic fails to cross...
@ 12:30, a bullish green bar would fill a psar buy-stop ... This trade works higher for 5 bars, but then pulls back- The opportunity here would be to have raised the stop to B.E. or take a small higher gain with a tighter stop- The trailing fast psar was well below the entry - and any Red bar is a reason to be selling. Or at least stop raised to the low of that bar for a B.E. trade.
The trade continues to decline-
@1:45 Price tries a rally,green bars- would trigger a fast psar buy-stop order- but not the slower psar.
Stochastic gives an upside cross- A stop under the 1st green bar low would provide a small loss.
@ 2pm, Price makes a reversal higher from a lower low .
The slower psar would nail a good entry as a higher green bar triggers the order. A stop could be brought up to Break even, and the slower psar would net the larger gain as a stop-loss selling @ $40.00 The incling and rising stochastic made a cross lower coincidentally with the slow psar.
Also worth noticing- Price action had failed to make a higher high and hold it @ 3:20 pm.



The 5 min chart . TQQQ
Similar entry- The exit would be triggered as Price declines with The big red bar
Ths fast psar would net a gain on the entry $41.20 ... The 2 min chart Sell was @ $41.50 A net +$0.30 more profit! That's worth taking notice of.!!!
@ 12:35 a green bar would trigger a fast psar buy-stop order- A tell tale doji occurred 2 bars earlier- suggesting selling was abating-
This is also worth pointing out- The DOJI bar dropped below the prior base lows and recovered to Close higher- a bullish signal.
The 12-26-9 cross coincides with the fast psar Buy- - However despite 3 bullish green bars, an uptrend fails to develop The Slow psar was much higher and did not trigger until later.
The opportunity was to recogonize that the predominant trend was in a decline- and to adjust the stop loss up to Break even asap- Using the Low of the green bar makes perfectly good sense on the entry - or just a few cents below.

The next signal occurs @ 2:10 as the macd 12-26-9 cross occurs, stochastic rises, and both psar levels as buy-stops would get triggered.
This final trade would fail to see a strong trend develop- The stop could be raised to Break even on the 3 pm upmove, but that fails....
In this comparisom, the 2 min chart locked in the larger % gain, but generated numerous more false entry signals.







Time to shutdown- for the day-
The 1 day charts : soxs


Note the positive signals in TZA !




Ultimately, an end of day recap to compare the trades one takes compared to the potential trades - is worth a review...
Time to call it a day....

[sd]

8.11.23 PPI report @ 8:30.
Futures flat/mixed. SPY hovering at the 50 day $4468.

Will see what the direction is after the PPI report is interpreted. My Bias is still to the downside,


PPI came in hotter than expected- Markets initial reaction is bearish...
UP 0.3 vs expected 0.2

If the reaction is still bearish as we near the Open, I'll take a look at the Inverse funds for trades initially.
The ultimate guess is to bet on a buy at the Open- Premarket pricing a few minutes ahead of the Open may be a good limit order .
However, the entry stop would need to allow the price volatility- of the 2 minute bar low- or perhaps even the 5 min bar low.
That's one consideration to pay attention to as I review charts.....

Assuming you Buy at the Open those funds that have a higher Open- than the prior day's Close...How many times % wise - will that be a winning entry?
That's easily reviewed by going through past charts viewing the 2 & 5 minute on a day by day basis, using a 2 day time reference to establish prior Close.


ORDER screen set up premarket with orders well outside of actual pricing.


Bought TZA @ Open fill $25.24-


Bought partial SQQQ on the pullback,$19.49 added with a buy stp $19.65 - Testing the 5 min psar as a trailing stop for part of the position.



TZA POSITION IS NOT BEHAVING AS i HAD HOPED- Givingf it some room with the slow psar on the 5 min.




@ 9:57- Not seeing the up momentum I had thought would develop in SQQQ, TZA considering the market reaction-
Stops are a bit wider than I normally would have used- and would have stopped out earlier.

TZA - 5 min - Ascending triangle - which way does it go?


Tightened stop in SQQQ to just under today'
s low $19.44

Both SQQQ and TZA stops triggered for net losses.





$17 LOSS IN TZA,, $7 loss in SQQQ.

Took a shot at SQQQ as it appeared to move higher- green bar on the 2 min at the time- Call this a 'revenge' trade- as I went in with larger size (100) but set the stop tight under the swing low .
Note that the 2 min psar did not confirm, nor did any of the indicators -other than the 5 min Sto had not dropped below the 80 level.




The 10 am reversal in TNA- Big green bar, testing the yesterday Close highs- Solid indicator support- Stop is below the low of the Green bar.



TQQQ long trade



Not getting the surge today! volatility taking it's toll on me-
Taking a break at 11 am to go grab some Figs and cut the grass!
TNA trade is hanging on by a thread....

going to get some Ruby Port to can some figs...May have to sample some today!

Energy positions in the green today!

Today's trades failed to find support and taking a wider stop did nothing but see an increase in the size of the losses. -Spent the remainder of today on errands- Wine store for the Port- Liquor store for a Brandy- Grocery store for the vanilla beans;and the pears; Ace hdwr for the pectin -
Trying out 2 different Fig recipes- for canning.


At the End of Week-
Sector rotation continues- with ENERGY continuing to dominate!


CD's now yielding over 5.25%- No Risk, guaranteed- Certainly should be a consideration in any IRA for the next 3, 6 12 months- Leave something for sector investing- but a no Risk guarantee as we potentially see a slowing market is not a bad deal.

[sd]

Saturday 8.12.23
Off topic :
Woke up way too early- 4 am- with plenty of time on my hands until sun up- Lots of chores to attend to in the yard- Grass to mow, figs to collect, and figs to bag with Organza bags to keep the ant,wasps, and other insect life, and birds- from harvesting before me.. Got a bowl full of Black Mission and some Celeste yesterday pm- and we'll do some Brandied preserves and and another recipe- I've got a yard full of Figs (and muscadines, and Kiwi vines both Hardy and Fuzzy) and a few other fruit trees- all experiments started over the years....- a hobby that took on a life of it's own....
Live traps have collected 7 possums and 6 racoons to date that I've transported across the river and released in the nature park ....with the bike trails- Critters were putting a lot of devastation on the new leaf growth,
and then on the figs as they ripened.... Haven't caught anything in 3-4 days, will check the game cameras to see if there's anyone still strolling about at night.... Baiting the traps with fruit- watermelon, mango- could use figs now they are ripening- and Cat food also works well. I had to modify the live trap trigger plate by attaching a n extension to the plate to provide more leverage to cause it to trip- And, rigged up the bait using a string to get the bait in a Solo cup partially with slits in the sides, to be positioned beyond the trip plate, and pulled up with a string line through the cup and tied off near the top end of the trap.
I ended up with the 1st 2 traps being relatively small- for about $50.00 from Tractor supply, and then spent $115.00 for a larger trap-
When handling the bait, or setting the trap- wear some disposable gloves to reduce the human scent...I line the floor of the trap- metal mesh - with a layer of pine straw and the trimmings from some live pine branches.


The agenda today- will be to take care of the chores and such I don't bother with when sitting and watching the markets- Too many projects also to attend to- that I may have to put markets aside and get done before the end of September. Too easy to stay focused on the attraction in trading-

Friday was discouraging- I was relatively confident that we'd see a bigger momentum move coming off that PPI report- And that confidence allowed me to go ahead and set some wider stops where my initial entry faltered- and pulled back- I recognize that I tend to be aggressive when it comes to stops- and keep the typical loss smaller- under $10.00 as a general rule.... But I ended up with a $71 loss on Friday. I'll recap those trades here .

Generally speaking, I'm still very much in the learning phase of trying to learn to follow the signals - and I'm still 'testing' those signals and the triggers that suggest to initiate a trade-
I'm taking my initial Que from Devoid at the Leavittbrothers.com web site- as I've been a member there for 3-4 months- and - while I don't follow the postings continuously during the day, particularly when busy with active trades on, I do step in from time to time, and catch up at the EOD. Members there have different approaches- Scalp traders, swing traders, Crypto traders, and Fib traders- both swing and scalps.
A trial membership is worth trying- and you can access Jase's stock swing trade list as well-posted each Sunday- as well as his market commentary-

Devoid is both a day trader, who tries to hold for the duration of the move- all day if possible, and also a swing trader- holding some trades overnight and for multiple days- As a general rule- he may hold a trade overnight if he has a +3% gain in the trade that day- looking for a multi day trend to develop. He's been trading this approach for more than a decade- While holding down a full time job. (recently retired)
He prefers to be taking trades on the Bullish long side- but has recently adopted going to the short side as his hedge in these declining markets in recent weeks.

Another member- 'Rat' - is agnostic about market direction- he will flip a long trade and short a downturn- or when a trade reaches a top or bottom level on his Fib/fork extension approach.

Other members do their own thing, many post charts and some are good about explaining their thinking--- Devoid- because of member interest- often will expand his chart commentary with 'teaching chart' explanations on how he interprets a movement or explanation on why he takes an action- Extremely beneficial. And, yes, he also has losing trades and some days whereit doesn't work out- but overall, he is a net profitable trader with a high % of consistency. He also 'adapts' -and modifies his approach - sometimes taking trades off early on raised stops versus allowing them the leeway to come retest the 34 ema... And somedays he Buys the Open- somedays he nails an entry as a bar swings back to test the open bar's low... The goal is to not allow a profitable trade to become a losing trade- so he is aggressive in getting that stop loss tighter to the entry- but he will often hold that initial stop to cover B.E. and see if a bigger trend can evolve- That's where capturing a 3,4,5% move in the course of one day trade really adds up over a week's time....
(I'm not there yet LOL!)
At this point, I would say I'm batting about 50-50 - which is fine- as long as I can allow the winners to be larger than the losers...The goal presently, is to make fewer discretionary trades- and get more systematic trades-
Since the indicators MACD, Stochastic result from the Price action, they are Lagging- so learning to read a Price bar compared to it's preceding bars is askill set that I need to develop better- That's why I am including the 2 minute chart- because there are 2.5 bars on the 2 minute versus just relying on the 5 minute. I could consider the 1 minute- chart - but I am settling for the 2 min chart for this phase of my learning.

It is said that we can learn more from our Losing trades, than from our winning trades- Should be plenty of Education in the 6 trades made yesterday am! As I intentionally attempted to give trades more leeway yesterday, my take-a-way is that obviously didn't pan out- I had a mindset that perhaps i could use the wider psar and find that it rewarded me as price developed to trend in my favor- Yesterday did not see that develop in any of the trades- so I was 100% off in my trading approach for the conditions yesterday. Initially I took trades favoring the Short side- TZA, SQQQ, and later took trades seeking the other direction on the Long side- TNA, TQQQ.

My trades had consistency in their results though! All losers-!!! I'll try to show on the chart What i did and see if -after the fact- the entry was prudent- and where I should have stopped out-
I'll annotate the 5 min chart in this recap ....and at best my recollection of Why I took the trades as i did. Markets were bearish, in the Red at the Open, so that set the directional Bias.



Yesterday, I decided I would buy TZA- the small cap short at the OPEN- Initially I had set a Limit order to buy slightly below the pricing shown on the Premarket Bid/ask-
My Bias is that small caps are going to be under pressure in the market environment as we move forward- Banks have to charge higher rates on loans, and are going to be much more restrictive in who they lend money to.
It is not a market where small caps should flourish- Thus the Bias suggested I Buy this at the OPEN
I had thought I would get a better price if the Opening had a drop-.so I set a lower limit order initially. @ 30 seconds in, the Order had not filled ,so I jumped the order higher and filled at the market price $25.25 I held that TNA trade until 10:02 - selling @ $24.90 for a wide loss of -$0.35 on the 50 shares.

The 2 day chart shows the initial Opening 5 min bar reached the High of the day.


RECAP TZA TRADE BELOW:
I'd say this initially was a good entry- I had a lower limit that was not filled on the Opening bar- that was below the Open and the Bid/ask . I waited 30 seconds to see if the order was filled- it came with $0.01 on the Open to hit my limit, but then the bid/ask turned higher- I changed the limit order to a market buy- and filled below the Open $25.25.
So far, so good.... But, Bar 1 Closed a slight bit lower than the Open- Not to be too concerned with- but perhaps this is something I should look for in every trade- If the opening bar fails to make a higher Close than the Open price- How often -% wise_ does that indicate further weakness or the direction of the next bar? In this case, the next bar pushed significantly lower- I think I was viewing the Low of the prior closing bar as an initial stop Bar 2 also made a lower Close from where it opened. Albeit still a bullish green bar higher than yesterday's Close.
Price action tightened up over the next 4 bars. and then broke lower @ 10 am.
Based on the higher open, and getting a better entry, the trade initially looked positive- Also, the lower push on the 2nd bar followed by a much higher Close on that bar- also could have been taken as a potentially bullish sign.
In hindsight- always 20-20 isn't it- the low of that 2nd green bar would have suggested a logical swing low to set a higher stop-loss $24.98 - but the $24.90 was just a drop lower- and coincided with the prior closing low- Also ,The Fast PSAR at that time was just crossing the $24.90 level . Price made a triangle as it tightened up those 4 blue bars- with the open and Close of the bars within a $0.05 or so range-
The 10 am bar opened high, but dropped hard and fast! It blew past both psar levels and the prior day's LOW -
Had I used the fast Psar as a stop, I would have been filled @ $25.00 + ...

Notice that big Red bar triggered both psars to signal a Sell. The fast psar suggested a buy-stop fill @ 11:05 $24.87 as a3rd green bar got back above the 10 ema-
MACD crosses had occurred as Price moved up- CCI had dropped into oversold and made a recovery- but Stochastic lagged the MACD by 2 bars as a confirmation. By the time STO confirmed, price had made another leg higher- but was at it's top . I didn't make any other attempts to trade TZA.
OK, so the Entry on this trade was good- W-C-S paid attention to the low of the 2nd bar and raised my stop up to that low- or within $0.01 based on the Price action not behaving as i anticipated-
Could have used the fast PSAR as a stop for all or 1/2 of the trade.... and slow psar for the other 1/2. or the green bar low...
So, instead of setting a -$ 0.15 cent stop on the entry, I took a chance and lost 2x that amount...
Below the 5 minute chart, is the 2 minute chart- I include that here , as it gives a larger perspective to price movements. As can be seen, Price volatility finally settled into a progressively tighter range over the day






It's daylight- had a cup of coffee, found a baby possum in one live trap, and it's off to the other side of the River for a release...
Breakfast should follow, by garden/yard chores- Don't think I'll have time to recap the other trades-
I'll post the 5 minute , 1 day charts of SQQQ, TNA,TQQQ.






HERE'S A GOOD WEEKEND!

[sd]

A very difficult Saturday to lose a loved one-


A member of the family for almost 15 years and a scallion that stole Lolo's heart-

Was being treated for a heart murmur, collapsed Trachea, and seemed to be responding well when he suddenly took a sharp decline on the weekend. Struggling to breathe, lost mobility-
and we made the difficult decision that quality of life is a major consideration . A most difficult choice but the humane one.
Darn these little guys get into your heart strings! He will be missed as he was a prominent member of our family, and provided a lot of Life, smiles, and personality!
RIP Raider Dog!

Yes, I can post that here...Life counts.

[sd]

Monday 8.14.23 Futures went from well in the green earlier this am to all into the Red a few minutes before the Open.

Limit orders to buy SQQQ,TZA,SOXS at the open below the bid/ask SQQQ<SOXS filled.












bOTH POSITIONS REVERSED AND DECLINED - I took an ADD in the SQQQ as Price made a low followed by a bullish blue bar where I added 50 shares to the 40 I had on the open.
Set a stop for 90 shares $0.01 below that initial low - stop was hit a bar later .
I should note that I front ran the 2 minute macd just because of the bullish bar- so- I had the opportunity here- to have had a minimal loss on the 2nd bar on the 5 minute- that although was green, closed below the entry bar- Since my 1st entry was a smaller order, I thought I'd average the price down by catching a bottom reversal and adding at the lower Price-
But, there was no indicator confirmation , so the 'fault' is mine for thinking I'd be getting a bottom turn ....




sEEMS THIS WAS A REPLAY OF MY TAKING DISCRETIONARY TRADES fRIDAY!

@ 10:17 GOT A SERIES OF RED BARS FOLLOWED BY A STO HOOK IN THE OVERSOLD- ON THE 2 MIN CHART-
tOOK ANOTHER DISCRETIONARY ENTRY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY TIGHT STOP RISKIN $0.05 .
tHIS IS A 100 SHARE ADD, so potentially risking $5.



OK, so Prove to myself that the discretionary adds are simply wishful early thinking- and to learn to be patient enough to at least wait for the early TA signals- on the 2 min chart...
Let's follow the SQQQ and use the 2 min psar and Macd with a trailing buy-stop to see if I can nail a better uturn



@ 10:30 Price tried and failed a R.O.T. would have triggered the fast psar buy-stop- but the downtrend persist.
i.imgur.com/Q95tDsD.png

A swhift to the Inverse this AM would have offered a winning trade in the trending TQQQ.
See the 2 & 5 min chart:





Have to head out on errands- - Got whipsawed by the initial direction Open that reversed very quickly-
I had my orders all set for the bearish trades..... Should have also included some bullish orders that i rolled over to---I see the small cap bear rolled right over @ 10 am
2 10 am


sO, IN tza, SELLING 1/3 NETTED A SMALL PROFIT- THAT ALLOWED ME TO SET THE STOP AT A SLIGHTLY LOWER COST - and yet keep a larger 2/3 position- The entry buy was just a 25 share position, then added 50 on the move higher- Price actually pulled back to where I had initially set the stop as shown here, but I then did the math and dropped it to $25.58- which would be B.E. on the remaining 50 share position .



SOXS STOP AT B.E.

[sd]

8.15.23
Markets all in the RED premkt.
OIl lower as China cuts rates,
Jason Leavitt posting a video on Market Breadth narrowing- Fewer stocks showing advances...more showing weakness
www.youtube.com/watch?v=PH7cjgW38V8
Note that while the Market continued higher- the volume starts to decline- so , this shows a divergence in direction- MKT going higher- Participation- volume going lower
i.imgur.com/80TImXK.png]

5 day hi-lo


1 month Hi-LO


52 week hi-lo



Russel 3000 Stocks above the 20 day Average...



Bought back 50 to hold overnight




NVDA Aug 23 reports- Gene Muenster thinks NVDA will meet & beat next week.

Fitch warns it may have to downgrade more Banks. The downgrade potentially means Banks will have to pay more for their banking funding costs- means less profits and tighter margins.
This downgrade may extend to even the largest banks- JP Morgan included...
Will the markets take this further downgrade in stride, or will this just add weight to the downhill slope ?
MY Bias is to take these news items bearishly, but often the markets shrug it off. and continue to 'climb the wall of worry'

@ 9 am futures remain in the RED- Another reversal day, or will the markets stay bearish today?
eXITED xle,xop,slb as they all were giving back profits-

2 positions taken at the open -TZA,SOXS







HMMM- lost my other postings- McAFEE renewal notice tok over this post this am- and I hadn't updated.....



SOXS weakened further- raised stop triggers $10.25



TZA weakens- hit higher stop - net gain



Left on errands, and lUNCH OUT TODAY-
tHE TRADESTHIS AM- ONE OUT @ 1B.e. ESSENTIALLY- AND THE OTHER A NET GAIN.
@ 2:30 PM , LOOKING TO VIEW THE CHARTS TO SEE IF THERE'S A TREND i CAN STEP INTO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY....
Severe T storm passing through- Power blinked for a moment.

Reviewing the am trades @ 2:30- Looks as though moving a higher stop this am was prudent- Captured the gain and then Price would have come back to below my Entry cost.
rECAPPING THE TRADE-
TZA entry got a fill at the open below the Open cost-
Price volatility stayed favoring the upside with the Open bar on the 2 minute seeing the Low of the Day-





STALKING TZA- took an entry on a move out of the base- stop under the base lows- Got the upthrust move- and a brak through resistance overhead.



Stop is hit $24.97 was hoping for a bigger surge into the Close. Nets a decent scalp trade here. $0.11



Back in long w/buystop $26.01 stp $25.94 stop raised to $25.98- $3 Risk on 100 shares $0.03

That earlier resistance high needs to be broken thru! 3:45 , 15 min to go-





R is holding Price back! 3:48 almost ready to trigger stop $24.97



Stop triggers- Loss of $0.04- Well executed trade though. Stop was raised when price failed to break thru R.
i.imgur.com/yBoDkJh.png
holding some TZA overnight
shutting down tstorm and power surges

5 pm- -Markets and indexes Close down again- Downtrends are common. AI Hype is now realized that it will take a long time for fruits from AI to be realized-
Seasonally weak time for the markets, combined with what was a stretched market- So the rubber band was extended to the upside, and it's likely the reaction will also get overdone to the downside-
Pundits on CNBC discussing the 10 yr rate increase is not good for Equity exposure- Worth paying attention to - at least for a portion of one's holdings-
If you can lock in Safe & guaranteed returns- over 5%, for that portion of your portfolio- Why take the Risk by being all in the markets?

[sd]

8-16-23

Missed the market open- TZA holdover stopped out on the pre 10 am volatility for a net loss- I logged in after the Open, saw that my TZA trade had opened higher but immediately reversed to the downside. I set a stop that triggered as Price continued lower. This was an overnight hold- and I should have set the stop at my entry cost ...

At least in hindsight- but knowing that the open can be volatile- i wanted to see how the initial price bars closed. .

Viewing price action @ 10:50 am- TZA bottomed from the low of the Day $25.66 and has made a R.O.T higher. The 5 min chart showed a potential entry as the 9:50 bar closed bullishly higher above the 10 ema , followed by a higher green bar that triggered the MACD 5 min upside cross. Not in the trade- just doing a recap as the price action of SQQQ/TQQQ and SOXS/SOXL are suggesting a sideways non-trending , choppy and sloppy range. May take care of some outside catch up today and not press my luck....
This kind of narrow price action is worth a study - as the early entry would capture a majority of a winning move.
Learning to 'read' the price action to time a better early entry is a learned art- likely takes many hundreds/thousands of hours and screen time focused on learning to read the signals....
MMOY @ LB takes many trades with quick sells- often within a minute or two - to scalp a series of small wins that accumulate- and offers a very tight stop-
Prof D is trying for a longer hold for a much larger gain over the course of the day in potentially a single- trade- or several trades in a choppy market- reliant on the indicator confirmation. Looking for that surging trend to evolve....

Here's the 2 day, 2 min chart just for perspective. and the 2 day 5 minute below.



OK, so viewing just today's Price action - 2 min & 5 min.





(did set a buy-stop that filled @ 11:37 $25.21 ) That's pushing towards the prior high made earlier . stop now raised $26.18- That's Risk is just $0.03 -at the rising 10 ema. Price either will make that higher move , identified the $2020 level as the resistance- OK , 2nd 5 min bar is higher- at the am high. Will it pullback from here , or find buying support to move higher?



stop raised 20.27 w/psar




stop triggers $26.34 using psar. Net gain $0.13



Following my stop triggering, Price drops thru the 10 ema, moves back higher- Looks to be testing the overhead psar
Reentry as Price pushes thru overhead psar bullish to a new high!

sTOP RAISED TO B.E. -


Markets in the RED- SQQQ trending higher (not a position)


Notice how well sqqq trended above the fast ema from 11:30 range breakout!



stop triggers- the entry here was as Price reached thru the declining psar- but there were 2 prior green bars that preceded...


TQQQ- WILL WE SEE A 2ND TRY- 4 A R.O.T HIGHER?
I got into this 1st R.O.T TRY- but know that they often need a 2nd try to go higher- My entry fill was a bit high , and I'm looking to add to the position on a pullback to a lower limit.
The concern is where do I try to set a stop -under the day's swing low is the logical-but wide choice.
wITH THE LIMIT FILLED , THE AVERAGE COST IS $38.51- tHE STOP LOSS just under the earlier swing low is $38.34 Risk is $0.17 /$38.51 or -.44% loss if the trade fails.



Stop triggers- trade is a net loss- This 1st R.O.T. did not set a bottom as hoped...This was a larger net loss, as I had a total of 100 shares on ....Always a more probable trade to Go With the Prevailing trend...direction as a continuation....While focusing on this TQQQ trade, did not see the trend continuation in TZA -
Missed opportunity to use a buy-stop order there- Not chasing it here....still learning to focus on 1 trade at a time...


tqqq DID MAKE A second R.O.T- that may have legs this pm. Back in long. This stopped out quickly as price made a hard drop- Tight stop-
I think this kind of choppy and sloppy price action volatility makes it difficult to trust any trade position....developing a strong trend.
Even if one gave the trade some wiggle room, the 5 minute chart now shows the pullbacks coming back to touch the 34 ema this pm- so a stop should be raised if I still had the position.
If I had a larger position on- I think the ideal approach is to bne tactical with selling a portion- net that cushion on the entry- and then allow a portion to trail much wider- above Break even though.
i.imgur.com/AoUnH3l.png


Jason Leavitt- Managing Swing trades as the markets tops- Good video by Jason that demonstrates managing a swing position using the 2 hour chart- He also has the overall market condition in his overview framework.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RIQnL2weUo
The bearish side- Dan Niles- makes too much logical sense....
www.youtube.com/watch?v=_AiRc4AZcGY
2:45 re entry - TZA

Stop is above my entry $26.53
stops raised- split orders 50,25,25
Looking for a potential surge higher as we pass 3 pm. Will unload a 25 share on a gap move higher- and tighten the stops on the remainder.



We push higher here, or the trade turns South.



Sold 25 $ 26.81

stops $25.75,$25.73

Price basing $26.85 level.
only 1 stop remained- when I took the screenshot- but it was triggered
Good trade overall with aggressive stops. 100 share entry.


Back long TZA 3.28 pm with stop under the prior low bar. this is a potential basing play with $26.79 as the prior low. Stop $26.77 Entry $26.85 stops out .
This trade gave back $8.00 - I reentered because of the upmove above the bar that triggered the sell stops- The Red bar that dropped lower triggered a psar Sell signal overhead....
My re entry here was based solely on the price action, as you can see, the indicators had rolled over to the downside.
However, it feels like the momentum remains bearish and TZA could see a surge higher into the Close-

That E.O.D. surge indeed happened...A $0.20 move into the Close/...





Comparing the 2 min chart potential early entry signal - I need to remind myself that the 1st R.O.T. TYPICALLY FAILS on the 2 min chart-
Stochastic oversold, red bars transition to a couple of higher Blue bars, that fail below the declining 10 ema. There is no confirming signal on those blue bars by a stochastic almost crossing the slow line- or the macd making a significant hook to the upside, much less a cross.
The potential entry signals on the 2 min chart occur prior to the same signals on the 5 min chart- The potential is that the 2 min chart interprets the price action earlier as there are 2.5 2 minute bars in a single 5 min bar. The potrential is also for more whipsaw signals that don't carry thru .

Comparing psar buy signals -as an example . On the 5 min chart, the price bar @ 10:00 triggered a psar buy signal as Price reached $25.12 -fast psar, 25.17 the slow psar.

On the 2 min chart, the fast psar triggered @ 9:56 $ 25.90 - That's a $0.22 difference- and - +.85% higher gain than the 5 min signal.

[sd]

8.17.23
Futures in the green pre mkt.
WMT beats- pos guidance...
Have some business to attend to-this am ... will likely head out near the Open-
If I put any trades on, I'll have to rely on a trailing stop-loss.

Carryover from yesterday's TZA winning trades. Comparing the potential for the earlier and multiple signals on the 2 min chart, and the benefit of a longer term (all day) potential hold of the trade until the Close on the 5 min chart-




Comparing the 2 min chart potential early entry signal - I need to remind myself that the 1st R.O.T. TYPICALLY FAILS on the 2 min chart-
Stochastic oversold, red bars transition to a couple of higher Blue bars, that fail below the declining 10 ema. There is no confirming signal on those blue bars by a stochastic almost crossing the slow line- or the macd making a significant hook to the upside, much less a cross.
The potential entry signals on the 2 min chart occur prior to the same signals on the 5 min chart- The potential is that the 2 min chart interprets the price action earlier as there are 2.5 2 minute bars in a single 5 min bar. The potrential is also for more whipsaw signals that don't carry thru .

Comparing psar buy signals -as an example . On the 5 min chart, the price bar @ 10:00 triggered a psar buy signal as Price reached $25.12 -fast psar, 25.17 the slow psar.

On the 2 min chart, the fast psar triggered @ 9:56 $ 25.90 - That's a $0.22 difference- and - +.85% higher gain than the 5 min signal. Call that a +1% larger gain on an early entry-using the 2 min chart- but will the potential for more whipsaw signals end up with the 2 minute chart signals losing due to those false entries?

So, the w-c-s is to respect the 2 min confirmation and get that earlier entry. The potential for a stop under the day's swing low will be a smaller loss than the 5 minute entry if one tried to use the swing low.
As a stop- the low of the green signal bar offers a potential stop- Note that if the trade was taken following the Close of the 10:00 bar, the entry at that close or the Open of the next bar would see a stop-loss $0.20 below . (If opne used the 12-26-9 as the entry signal.
Note also the earlier entry signal shown by the 8,12,9 MACD would have entered at the Close of the 1st green bar above the blue bar.$25.90- capturing the benefit of the earlier gain and an added $0.20 vs the slower entry. .

Worth a backtest to go over each daily chart of the 2 & 5 min time frames to determine the success and failure rate of the 2 min vs the 5 min.

9 am futures still green.

Out for the trading day- @ the EOD AAPD,TSLQ, SARK all made money as swing positions taken.

EOD- Bond rates closing higher- Bad for Stocks...
Critter tally as of this am- 8 possums, 7 raccoons. None had a valid green card- transported back across the river and released.

Markets Closed lower! Downtrend continues! Correction underway- Time to lock in those profits- because, you only have a profit on paper if you fail to sell and turn it into cash!


@ 12:00 I have 2 pending orders- waiting-
a LOW LIMIT $38.66 THAT WILL USE A STOP $38.59 IF FILLED- BASED ON SUPPORT FOUND AT THAT $38.60- $38.65 RANGE 3X TODAY .
i'LL ALSO TRAIL A FAST PSAR BUY-STOP AS PRICE DECLINES-
i MAY DO A MARKET BUY ON A STOCHASTIC HOOK BACK THRU THE 20 LEVEL...

fUN WAY TO TRADE THIS fRIDAY- Green on my swings, and some profits locked in... q's trying to rally here




@ 12:38 PM STOCK IS SIMPLY TREADING WATER- nO macd CROSS ON THE RENKO- Entries were done ahead of a psar trailing stop signal.
OK, so it's the lunch hour, the turn in price @ 12;00 was a higher swing low- potentially bullish- but the qqq's were trying to rally.
I still see a stochastic upside cross of the 20 level , a CCI upturn, and an +DI upturn- So, the cost of being early may be the same as being Wrong.
We'll have to see, but obviously there is little momentum in my favor.
Still have net gains in the trades.
small hook down in the CCI, +DI @ 12;44 tick down on the Macd histogram -


Trade stops out- I had the opportunity to have sold a partial for a net gain of $0.10 but failed to do so. Thought I would see a higher up move due to that higher swing low...
Gains are being whittled down -but still in the green in SARK-

I'll still hold the lower limit order to see if Price will respect that as a low entry fill....



Took my Eye off the price action in SARK- It made arally here- right off my stop level LOL!
This does make for a higher net swing low-
So, I missed that move- and my initial stop was right there...

So, viewing the chart-, we see a series of pullbacks, but price has incrementally tried to make higher highs-

@ the EOD- Price failed to establish a significant trend- chopped in a sideways range-
Tweaked the indicator settings to be longer, ....


I was relatively pleased with my 1st day trading using the Renko and the 1 min chart for balance and perspective.
The potential signals are net fewer - but, as can be seen by the numerous ups and downs, numerous whipsaws if every signal was arbitrarily taken without considering the trend, and the other indicators combined.

What is evident from the 1st few minutes of the chart declining, is those small attempts to reverse the trend- R.O.T. all failed and price drops lower. Until it doesn't.
Tweaking the chart indicator settings- Adding back a slower standard 12-26-9 MACD. along with the fast 8,12,9 .
Why 2 different MACD values? Consider that if Price is downtrending, taking a more cautious approach to enter a long trade that is counter to the trend.
As can be seen in the SARK chart- from the Open to 9:50 - there were 3 attmpts for Price to reverse the trend - with 3 & 4 higher Renko boxes- from the low red box.
Also note that the trailing psar values would have triggered and given Buy signals as price reached them and topped out and rolled over.
So, that would be 3 potential trade signals that all failed if taken indiscriminately.
What can be determined, is that applying an aggressive stop-loss that follows any red box following an entry looks to be the right approach- The psar appears to signal following a 3rd red box- or a dop of $0.20.

[sd]

8-18-23 Futures in the RED @ 7am....

Options Expiration today-

Short swing positions- TSLQ,SARK,AAPD should see further gains today .
TSLA is under pressure as it has cut sales further in China- XPEV- Big Chinese EV maker reported a big earnings miss/low sales in China overnight.

You have to take notice that the market makers are playing with your orders- When the Premarket bids are showing stock XYZ is higher at the open, but it immediately reverses- and drops hard- the market makers are in the driver's seat. They can see all of the market orders in the Que- the lineup- and they also can take the opposite side of the trade that is being shown going in one direction,
but that the bulk of the pending orders are not showing additional buying orders to support that higher open ( or inversely, the bearish lower open , with the bulk of the pending orders not indicating more selling) .

i'M GOING TO start watching the OPEN on a fast 1 minute time frame - to get the sense of where price is heading versus where it was indicating premarket. How often does that false open reverse, leaving one holding a losing position? I'll also view via the 1 minute RENKO chart-

Renko charts are a Japanese style of price charting designed to eliminate noise from price volatility - and focus on the CORE price movement.
For example- a 1 minute Renko Box has a value of $0.05 . Let's say that the low of the box was $10.00 and the high of the box was $10.05 - A new box will form only when price exceeds the high or the low value of the active box by $0.05 in either direction- So, if price drops $0.05 to $9.95 , a new Red box will be generated below the present box. Conversely, If price Rises by an additional $0.05 above the present box, a new bullish box forms on that higher move.
Renko charts do not allow for blank gaps in price, If Price gaps down $0.20 on a chart with a value of each box @ $0.05 as in the chart of SQQQ, The Renko will show 3 false boxes - filling in the gap - This occurs in all gaps, whether higher or lower...- so using Renko along side a conventional bar chart may be the way to go.







sOLD MY sark as it dropped from the open- Buy-stop to add based on Renko






SARK re-entry went profitable using the Renko... Stops split- trailing a partial under the 2nd Renko box, the remainder stop using the psar- now above my entry cost...


I elected to set a buy stop based on a higher move, which filled on the higher Renko move, which ultimately reversed to the downside-
The remaining position stopped out on the Price triggering the psar sell- Net profitable trade .
Will continue to trade today using the Renko chart along with the bar chart






Following with a trailing buy-stop using psar


Potential reversal in the downtrend- Buystop psar value goes lower- $36.82

Buy-stop filled- stop under the swing low.



Trade 2- I raised the stop on 1/2 to lock in a net gain- which triggered for a $0.04 gain-
Used that gain to set a sell $0.04 below my entry cost for a net break even trade. The trailing fast psar would give up $0.10 below my entry.




@ 11:20, PRICE CONTINUES TO DECLINE


SARK TRADE 3- DID A DISCRETIONARY LOWER BUY-STOP FOR 1/2 AND A HIGHER BUY-STOP FOR ANOTHER 1/2- FOR A 100 SHARE POSITION TOTAL
i SOLD 1/2 AS PRICE MOVED HIGHER TO NET A SMALL CUSHION- With the remaining stop raised to a B.Even....




tRADES 4,5 -
dID SOME DISCRETIONARY EARLY BUYING- ON THE INDICATOR CROSSW UP ON THE RENKO.
This was below the psar levels for buy-stops-
Bought 50, caught an $0.11 up move- added a buy-stop/lmt to add 50 on the upmove- break $38.95 -$38.96- Price moved past my order without a fill- should have allowed a $0.02 range -
Chased and filled higher- $38.98 raising my averaged cost to $38.92- With the gap above $39- I raised my stop to Break even- should have sold 1/2 on the $0.10 up move. W-C-S-
Stop at B.E. looks ready to triggers 11:54

Stop filled $0.02 lower $38.90

[sd]

[sd]

As the Markets continue their decline- Tech down -6.84% - what had been the leading group has given up that title- over the past 30 days.

[sd]

Busy weekend- as i got back home this Sat pm, thought I'd review the Renko charts versus Standard charts-
Considering the SARK trades taken Friday - I was using a faster Renko time frame-
I decided i would compare and use a tad slower Renko on a 3 minute chart,

the 5 minute Elder bar chart of SARK took until 11:20 am to signal an indicator upside cross . While the 9:50 am upside move off the downtrend was a reaction move that failed, it had enough upside to be worth taking a position . The later move @ 11:20 had little momentum, as price evolved into a narrowing and non trending sideways range.


The 3 minute Renko Each box worth $0.05 .

[sd]

Risk Reversal Podcast w/Peter Boockvar Getting the rationale for a potential bearish 4th qtr....And, the likelihood that the FED will not see inflation come down to levels where they cut rates due to inflation being tamed....

www.youtube.com/watch?v=7h3msO6SKsU

[sd]

8.10.23 fUTURES IN THE GREEN- Are the MM setting up the bulls -again?


Of course, the Daily trend for the past few weeks is to the downside- which sets up my bias....But I'm including both the bull and bear inverse as potential trades.
I went to Finviz.com this am to compare the ATR values relative to price .
SQQQ 3.97%; TQQQ 4.89%; TZA 4.17%; TNA 5.07%, SOXS 6.25% , SOXL 8.29%
tHE SOXL BEING 2% HIGHER than the rest is a significant difference. The inverse move is 6.25%- so that's a big variation compared to the long and inverse percentages of the others.

Entry trade $36.99 -sold with a high tight stop $37.33 net + $0.34 = +.9%



TRADE 2 - A REENTRY AS Price moved above the psar using a buy-stop order-



Stop raised to my entry @ 10:02- Price is up to $37.60 stp $37.44



stop up to $37.58 as price is at $37.67...@ 10:08 am
Stops out Net gain $0.13



For TRADE 3 ; a trailing buy-stop- using the slower psar 0.02 (pink) - I may split the order foir an earlier entry for a portion ...
Changing the chart to a 1 day only :


tRADE 3 IS ON - 100 SHARES- SOLD 25 FOR A MINOR GAIN AND MOVED STOP TO $0.02 BELOW MY ENTRY .


@ 11 am, Tech is dropping back to it's Open - still holding a net % gain from the Friday Close- but the upside momo stalled out shortly after 10 am....

We have had 2 attempts now to reverse the downturn- and both have failed, with Price now close to the intraday low made earlier at the Open.
I tried a discretionary add that became a 2nd loss - so, Instead of viewing the faster 1 minute charts by themselves- I'll start to include the 3 minute Renko to recognize the overview
is still in a decline- While the faster charts gave 2 distinct R.O.T TRYS, the 3 minute bar chart considers that as a single try






wITH THE bUY SGTOP ORDER FILLING AS i WAS CHANGING OUT THE hOUSE WATER FILTER- saw some volatility and then a big surge higher-.
Price made a pause , as i came back in to view it- With a nice gain from the Buy stop- I added -Dbld -the position size to 100 shares.
Price moved higher, I raised my stop to B.E. on the add, Price pulled back to within $0.01 of my stop for the entire position- including that portion using a trailing stop.


nICE ACTION POST 12;00



wORTH POINTING OUT - The indicators earlier gave a positive divergence even as Price made a lower low- This suggested that the selling pressure was lessening-
I mention this as it's one of those nuanced details that Jason points out in his masterclass that is a potential early signal- Divergences work in both directions.



Correction- my entire position was stopped out $37.43- essentially the very low of the price pullback @ 1:05.
Often the Order page does not show a trade immediately when a stop order fills. Missed the next higher leg of this trade. Potentially that would be another +$40 gain


Buy-stop fills



This is a different kind of chart- Bookmap @ T.O.S posted on the LB board -


With 1 hr to go until the Close- TQQQ on the 3 minute chart is pushing higher.




holding a position in TQQQ @ 3:40 pm with a stop @ $38.11- survived the 3;30 thrust lower. With the afternoon trend steadily climbing, I may elect to hold overnight as a swing. Should we get a big surge though- may elect to sell to lock in the gain.
With Price now $38.35- Stop will go to $38.18
Price failed to see a buyer willing to pay up into the Close- Stock weakened and hit my stop, continued a bar lower.


Good way to end the Day with net gains despite a few losing discretionary trades-
Something to be said for waiting for the setup- and some confirmation....


Viewing and annotating the 3 potential Long trades on the 3 minute Elder chart. and then the 3 minute Renko chart.
Looking at SOXL- It opened up from yesterdays Notice the 3 minute 1st bar - It went down, it went up, and it Closed right where it opened-.
Bar 2 went lower , but Closed above Bar 1- For an entry, a buy-stop above Bar 1 high would get a fill.... $20.65
Potentially this would be a trade that's as easy as it gets-

Assumes that a buy-stop above the high of the entry bar would be the fill, that trade would gain about $0.45 before it rolled over and declined. A gain of $0.25 on the trade would be stopping out at the 10 ema.
Price pulled back, and tried to make a reversal- with a number of green bars. that also triggered a fast psar Buy- However, there was No Macd or Sto confirmation.
Even the very fast 8,12,9 which came close to a crossover, did not do so until much later -11:20 am. That cross coincided with a bullish green bar- , and almost made a cross with the 12-269 It looked very promising with the +DI upturn starting, as well as the STO making an upturn. I tried a discretionary entry on that price action that failed to gain ground.
The price ranged in a $0.20 range... but a stop-loss would have to give a bit more room if the buy order is filled on the high of the green bar.
Notice that the PSAR buy signals were sloping down above that price. Finally, as psar meets a higher upmove in Price, a Buy is generated. $20.80 - Price trends staying above the 10 ema until 1:50, @ $21.50 - a potential net $0.70 move....As a warning, the 8-12-9 made an early downside cross as price started to pause and base for a few bars @ 12:30 and again @ 12:45. Each of these sideways consolidations lasted for 4 bars before the trend moving higher. The 10 ema would serve as a level a stop could be trailed at, or the fast psar -which also tracked along the 10 ema.
During this uptrending period- both the +DI and the CCI stayed bullish.
Price broke the 10 ema as it based @ 1:50 -2:09. A series of sideways narrow blue bars that had a green bar breakout for another run in an uptrend. While it came back and hit the 10 ema soon after the breakout, a Psar trailing stop would follow price higher unti 3:30 $21.90.
It appears that the slower 12-26-9 matches the Stochastic move higher as Price also triggered the slow psar buy-stop...
When that occurred @ 12:12, Price never retested that breakout bar.
At the same time, we have a +DI cross the -DI, and stochastic gets above the 0.0 line.

Potentially, the trade never weakened significantly until a dip @ 3:30 - psar would be in Sell mode. TRhat potential gain from the afternoon entry would net A $1.00 gain if held for the duration-



The next chart is TNA- small cap Bull-
Initially, Price opened @ $33.11, and Closed near the high of the 1st bar $33.40- Here it gets interesting- a Buy-stop order above the 3 minute bar high @ $33.42 would not get a fill.
Bar 2 failed to go higher, and bar 3 - Red failure bar signaled the start of the decline.

A 1st attempt at a R.O.T. @ 10:40 , which fails, and price declines lower.
A second R.O.T. @ 12;00 begins the trend higher for the day- Aggressive stops following Price would get triggered- a stop protecting the initial entry would see a $0.60 rise at the EOD.
While the MACD made several drops of the fast over the slow, it remained above the 0.0 line for the duration of the day .
Price dropped @ 3:45- This was a sloppy and choppy uptrend- but consider if the stop was initially raised to B.E. it would have continued for the remainder of the day for the larger gain compared to trying to target small segments....
i.imgur.com/uQDWnsA.png