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Post by sd on Jul 8, 2023 5:19:14 GMT -5
Saturday 7-18-23
The sector group performance-:
Worth noticing is that Technology is down for the week- Sector rotation is favoring Consumer cyclicals and even energy caught a bid on Friday with some large gains in the oil service sector.
Meta had made a new "Threads" debut this week- and it had popped higher Wed, but pulled back only a bit Thursday- where I stopped out @ $292. Friday, it initially tried to go higher- but Closed lower $290.53.
Unfortunately, I didn't have the trading savvy/Risk to get into Meta until very recently as a momentum play- I'm not a good investor-
Looking at the chart of META this year, just as an example, Had I been in it from the beginning of the year, and adhered to allowing price to trend until it made a Close below the fast ema, where I would raise a stop to just below the low of that bar- I'll mark up the chart with some "What-Ifs... Not actual trades- but hypothetical - based on how I think I would have reacted to the price action-
Blue arrow for an entry/re-entry - Red for stopping out based on Price action and/or the thesis of a stop under a close below the uptrending ema.
tHIS exercise is worth doing to put one's "approach" on paper- Both in understanding what one is prone to do...and what one gains or misses out on. The 1st entry in Jan was in a winning position, and price paused the week of the 17th, went sideways, and then dipped and had a Close below the 7 ema. A tight stop loss at the low of that bar would be taken out by the slightly lower open the next day .
that immediately went higher and Closed above the 7 ema-
Trend continued, and a reentry was made with a higher positive Close on the next bar.
Price moved higher and stayed above the 7 ema and then had a very bullish gap-away Feb 3.
How would I handle this sizeable Gap? I'd be selling a part of the position on the extreme pull-away and set a stop below the low of the gap- That would be triggered when Price dropped back to the fast ema and went lower- I would have a losing trade on a Feb 14 entry as price had made a Close back above the fast 7 ema. That would stop out for a loss a few days later-
Potetially an entry would be made on the green Mar 1 bar- but certainly on the bullish Mar 5 bar- but that would also see Price come back and make that lower Close, and stop out the following day . It then turns and has a gap higher open the very next day where I would have to Chase the reentry. Mar 28 sees a Close below the ema, stop is tightened, but does not trigger- April 19, Price closes under the EMA, and stop is hit the next day - followed by a week of Red bars- the 7 ema has rolled over and is about to cross the 21 ...
Then, we have a big gap higher- I'd be entering as Price moves higher- but that move -with a stop under the low of the gap , would see the stop trigger. price pulls back to the fast ema, and I likely wouldn't trust the series of lower priced bars- May 15 price makes a bullish higher Close /green bar providing the impetus to enter. Price trended well for 3 weeks- and as price gained momentum, and pulled away from the fast ema a bit- notice the wider space- the 'hump' in the fast ema- caused by those 3 days that gapped away ...Price reverts back to the mean- rubber band style- makes a low below the ema and stop would be triggered.
a reentry occurs as price regains the ema with a green bullish up move - but I should have entered on the 1st green bar Close above the ema.
So, that would be an active approach that combines recognizing a trend and trying to allow the position to hold ,but with a defensive stop on price weakening. In this example, I illustrated this chart with a 7, 21, 50 ema.
Also notice, that the daily 12-26-9 MACD and the stochastic are closely aligned, but stochastic is quicker to respond to price fluctuations.
tHIS NEXT CHART SUBSTITUTES A 10 EMA and a 34 ema.
The MACD is set to 12,16,9
oF COURSE, SELDOM DOES SUCH A STRONG trend last over this extended period-
While this was a hypothetical entry and stop and reentry, it provides a potential reference to measure other positions by-
Notice that in the last chart- the 34 ema was never touched during this entire period. but, on a daily chart that has trending emas in alignment- that's a pretty wide distance from price above the 7 or 10 ema.
What I find useful, is dropping down in time frames to view price through a 2 hour chart on swing trades-
In doing so, the same ema settings are magnified and closer to the actual price-
Realizing losses this week in the "Investments" was a market lesson- Somewhat reinforces my short term trading point of view-
However, the most money is made by those willing to hold a winning trade through small swings in price- and not try to make numerous reentries.
I'm not that guy...But, potentially I will someday allow a winning trade a portion to try for the longer hold- as long as it is profitable....
So, I'm trying 3 swing positions taken Friday:
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Post by sd on Jul 9, 2023 7:12:09 GMT -5
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Post by sd on Jul 10, 2023 8:04:05 GMT -5
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Post by sd on Jul 11, 2023 6:09:50 GMT -5
7.11.23
Earnings season starting-- Futures in the green today- That's a surprise since I took on some new positions yesterday- Usually that's a signal for the mkt to drop lower LOL!
Had success in setting my live traps last night- 1 Possum, 1 racoon- after I have my cup of coffee, I'll transport them to the other side of the river to an undeveloped area...
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Majority of my "investments" are higher- mid morning. made a small Day trade in TNA, but it came back and hit my stop just a bit below my entry cost-
I did buy Uber this am, took a partial position as it was pulling back, and then added a buy-stop if it went higher to get a full position-
That filled and worked out well. Mark Mahaney's #1 pick...for the rest of 2023...
[
bx POSITION TAKEN YESTERDAY IS Moving well- Entered it on some "positive analyst news...
Bought MSFT on the "News" it won it's case against the FTC trying to stop it from buying ATVI-
This is a defeat of Lisa KHAN ---- Boo-Yah!
The stock has been heading lower for several days, and may still head lower as the index rebalancing will cause some of the big leaders to date to see their size reduced in the indexes-.
I also set a very tight stop here based on where the positive daily price action started- so, on a 10 share position entry, I'm risking about $20.00
SOXL DAY TRADE- HELD FOR HOURS- FINALLY get a pop
TRADE STILL ALIVE 3:30
3:52 - BOTH STOPS HAVE BEEN TRIGGERED- THE VERY TIGHT $34.09 WAS JUST CAUGHT BY A PULLBACK BAR- i FOLLOWED pRICE A BIT WIDER AND CLOSED THE STOP as we came close to the EOD- Watch for the big buying at the last minute today though!
I also took a daytrade shot at PLTR-
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Post by sd on Jul 12, 2023 9:19:29 GMT -5
7-12-17 Busy day - adjusting stops in all swing positions- virtually everything is in the green and stops all profitable.
No day trades on - most everything gapped up on the open, not chasing...
Nice move in UBER- To protect my gains, ($42.53 entry) I had a wider stop initially on my entry- following today's volatility, and a pullback swing low, I'm raising my stop to be below that swing low ($44.04) and also to be below the exact round number at $44.
So, I drop below that level by $0.10 - stop is $43.90
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Post by sd on Jul 13, 2023 9:02:58 GMT -5
Busy Friday am- vac the pool, mow the grass- Buy TNA on the am open drop and caught a lucky entry near the very low before any indicators blessed.
2 of our granddaughters on the way over , so trading goes to the back burner.
As can be seen, the series of tight stops I stair stepped higher as Price momentum -green bars -continued rising got triggered by a $0.12 blue bar pullback from the $38.60 high.
This was a very aggressive- front run ahead of any indicators- but based this on the positive pre market sentiment- and set an entry stop under the EOD yesterday's lows- Risking $0.20 initially.
Price made a rebound higher from the bar I entered on.
It seems that Price momentum -and sometimes direction- occurs right around the 10 am time .
This is TNA still uptrending, but in a sideways consolidation- We are seeing an initial pullback low.
Time to be careful here...
Direction gets determined :
a quick glance at TQQQ and SOXL shows price still holding the gap open, but with a number of red bars.....potentially we see a further pullback from today's higher open
Trade entry 2 - front run the MACD as the Price decline slows with some bullish blue bars attempting a R.O.T. -
i ENTERED $38.37 on the 2nd blue bar, and was initially going to set a tight stop just under the low of that 1st blue bar....
I decided I would widen the stop slightly - and set it below the last red bar- risking about $0.3 more- @ $38.24
I missed the green bar break out higher- Too busy annotating and posting chartsLOL!
I would have trailed my stops under the green bars -w-c-s- Raised my stop back to my entry cost as I see red bars declining.
Trade 2 will likely stop-out- Trend is to the downside-
It did stop out as I am writing this....
Stop filled at my entry cost- so it's a B.E. break even ...
Often the 3 funds will trade together- More so the semis and the qqq's
Weakness in small caps is not bullish for the market's willingness to hold it's higher gains made at the open.
I set a buy-stop to enter SOXS to short the Semis. After the am weakness in the soxs, the soxl is not pushing higher-
so, this is a potential R.O.T. using a higher entry price- buy-stop to enter the trade on upside momentum
cancelled trade- looking at TQQQ and SOXL
long TQQQ as it makes a higher high - a much better entry would have been watching the price reversal bar @ 10:30 am @ $$43.03 a potential entry-
I don't care for this extended entry- and so I'm setting a wide stop at the $43.04 50 ema. on the 2 minute chart.
Having computer issues this entire week - very slow on sites loading-
I'm going to sell for a loss on this ......
Grandkids arrived..
eod tna CHART
FUN DAY!
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Post by sd on Jul 14, 2023 8:04:49 GMT -5
7-14-2023
Financials reporting starting today-Generally good.
Futures mixed- Dow up Nas muddling in the Red.....
soxl up premkt....
Several losses front runn ing TNA and trying to capture a turn-
Got busy adjusting stops on swing positions seeing a lot of pullback
Took a long in the TQQQ following it's pullback this am- but it looks tepid at best. still no cross on the MACD on the 5, but did front run based on the cross and green bar on the 2 minute. Instead of allowing it a wide stop under the red swing low, using a stop a few cents below the basing lows.
adjusted the charts to just 1 day
Getting some upside .....but now weakening- stop tightened to risk 1/2 $0.12
@ 11:53 - Price is just above my entry - I'll keep the present stop in place to try to wait this out....Looks like we may settle into a sideways range for the day.
YUP
stop triggers took the loss- What is interesting is how well the 5 min MACD (both 12-16-9; 12-26.9) that neither ever confirmed the price action by an upside cross and above the 0.0 line. Potentially I could have tightened my stop to B.E. but I wanted to allow this the potential to make a higher move-----
So, we now have a n initial high 10:22, a swing low @ 10:56, a more recent Lower High @ 11:40 -
so, does this price action narrow between the 2 swings?
TQQQ IS THE 3X ETF OF THE QQQ'S.
CHART BELOW SHOWS A MULTI DAY, 2 HOUR CHART OF THE QQQ'S WITH THE 5 MINUTE CHART OF TQQQQ-
AS CAN BE SEEN WITH THE LAST 2 BARS ON THE 2 HR CHART, pRICE HAD INITIALLY GONE higher, but is weakening at this noon time.
cAME BACK LATE TO VIEW TNA- I t had previously seen price rebound from a swing low for the day, and had positive price action along with the MACD confirming-
As I explore this further- Note that the 12.16.9 signals several bars in advance of the 12.26.9 as crossing above the 0.0 line- Front running the actual cross based on the histogram is not a bad idea for that better entry closer to the Point of failure.
As price manages to try to push higher, it also has made another higher low- so, I'll reduce the width of the stop by raising it to a couple of cents below that pullback red bar low. It seems particularly a valid level based on the view of the 2 min chart showing 3 red bars in alignment, followed by a bullish higher move. Not holding high expectations for a significant move today based on the overall market conditions .
I raised the stop to $37.47 - Which risk is $0.04- Seeing the lower price action basing in the 37.54 range, I raised my stop to my entry cost- but grilling some chops apparently forget the second "confirm" - and the lag on the order screen has been terrible all week-
I did call my Spectrum provider, they reset my modem- didn't see any issues in the area. I unplugged and reset my router as well- performance is slow on many sites- including stockcharts...
Done trading for the day - TAKING A NET LOSS ON 3 TNA trades- the 1st 2 this am were totally discretionary- and not supported by any TA-
The last TNA entry was very late when I saw the earlier TA macd cross. I gradually tightened my stop as price tried to gring a bit higher- and I had actually set a final stop at my entry cost- but failed to "submit" the order- so I was stopped out for a $0.04 loss... (-$2 on a 50 share position)
Even if I had taken the earlier signal and entered $37.20 , a substantial trending move never evolved.
EOD- Markets gave up some gains today- I tightened stops to keep profits at a reasonable % versus giving too much back- and a number of position stops triggered- including meta, 50% of UBER ,MSFT, FLS, WTAI, PAVE,F,GM ,XLB.... I'm reverting to my aggressive stops to retain gains- and that 'feels' like the right approach at this extended level ....
still retaining ORCL, BLK, KWEB,JPM, UBER
However, I'll look to rejoin some of the major tech s if they continue to make gains. Also looking for the markets to shift to small caps, energy, value- - but how much more upside in Meta, NVDA, MSFT,AAPL?////
It's been an amazing 1st half- Unfortunately, I was influenced a lot by all of the logical commentary that pundits on CNBC promoted suggesting the rationale for why we are heading for an implosion- but the market continues to believe in the economy and a soft landing....August is a traditionally slow and weak period- Sept and Oct are known for volatility- and a fall recovery is the "norm" In a political year, keeping the economy humming is in the interests of the politicians.
Perma logical bears- Gregg Branch; Mike Wilson have sound logical arguments that suggest why the markets are waaay overvalued based on potentially undeniable declining earnings....- so valuations do matter- ultimately-
however, the market gets to interpret where the valuation can go- regardless of the past historical norms.
Supposed to be rains tomorrow- If so-, a good time to do a chart study of those charts that I tend to trade.- and note where i would be a winner in my approach using the Devoid method. I'm still a novice student-of this time frame and trading the leveraged stocks - and want to learn to implement a disciplined and systematic approach....
So, this weekend may offer the time to review the signals over the past week....and to evaluate how those results would have evolved...had they been followed systematically.
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Post by sd on Jul 16, 2023 18:08:37 GMT -5
The weather rain events never happened here, but certainly did in the Northeast , and CAl is seeing tremendous heat and wildfires. ..... and I was starting on a 5 minute chart study this am in TQQQ ....but instead we loaded up the truck, met with a couple of our granddaughters and spent the day at the park, riding bikes- ice cream , and a breakfast at IHOP.
Specifically, as I am learning Devoids 's approach over at Leavittbrothers.com, I've noticed that he often front runs the MACD cross and jumps in quite early on potential entries-
The advantages of getting into a trade early are indeed enormous- Potentially, that substantially increases the [potential for a larger winning trade, and simultaneously has a smaller loss should the trade fail to execute- and become a loss.... I also note that D loaded up on SQQQ as a 'Hedge' for his other positions, and took some individual -3 -5% losses on swing positions, but the Hedge paid off and reduced the net port loss.
In starting to do more research, I've also used the 2 minute chart to try to identify that earlier signal - As I started comparing the 12-26-9 MACD with the 12-16-9 - particularly on a R.O.T that had a lot of downside momentum, initially, the 12-16-9 seems to signal as much as a 5 minute bar sooner-.
One of the dangers of faster timing is more frequent signals are likely, and also more potential fails. The trade off may be that potentially earlier signal with a lesser loss when wrong....
So, trading signals on the 5 minute, the 3 minute, and the 2 minute are all on the table- along with testing out a faster MACD on all time frames- MACD needs to be confirmed by an upturning & rising stochastic- Learning to understand the probabilities of taking a signal when the trend has been in a decline can offer the potential for a snap back oversold reversal - but early signals can often look promising-
As I compare the potential faster time frames signals, there are a number of variables---
TREND- Time in the Trend --- dominant trend on the higher time frame- Recognizing what the dominant trend on a higher time frame is telling should provide insight and perspective -
A trend in motion generally has persistence....
To drill down further, the comparison needs to extend in further backtesting....but no time to do this further tonight!
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Post by sd on Jul 17, 2023 7:40:26 GMT -5
Futures in the red premarket- 7-17-2023
Of course, are we seeing a market that is continuing to rotate a bit and widen out??? The small caps have recently started to play catch up and participate- but also down premkt.
TNA long trade taken on the green bar following the red bar low.
In the 3 minute chart above, showing 3 different MACD signal time frames- 8,12,9 ; 12,16,9 ; 12,26,9
The TNA trade has the stop below the opening low of day- $37.20 - It has chopped around a bit for the 1st 15 minutes before tepidly venturing a bit higher.
stop gets raised as price momentum slows- lower blue bar.
stop triggers TNA 10.10 $44.38 nice gain + $0.73 or 1.9%
Took a shot on TQQQ as it moved up out of the green bar base- and with a relatively tight stop - Lost $0.12 on the trade- as the very next bar retested the resolve of buyers...
Not willing to give this the wider stop based on the low of the prior bars.
Buy-stop for a tna reentry
Did reenter TQQQ with a $0.20 trailing stop-
I also added back 50 to my UBER position- holding 80 - will set a tight stop under today's
tqqq- EXPERIMENTED WITH A $0.20 TRAILING STOP- iNITIALLY IT WAS SET AT $44.35, BUT AS PRICE MOVED HIGHER- THE STOP TRIGGER FOLLOWED AND WAS TAKEN OUT-
This was an experiment using trailing stop when I cannot watch a position -versus a fixed stop- Had i kept the stop fixed, it would not have triggered, and I could have potentially participated
in this price breakout higher.
12:15
TNA Buy-stop re entry on a trend continuation did fill- and went sideways for 30 minutes before pushing higher-
My reentry $38.55 and as price moved up past $39.00, I split the stops on the position to sell 1/2 at a tight $38.87 and the remaining 1/2 @ $38.78.
The tight $38.87 on a pullback from it's $39.05 high made @ 12:15 - was $0.18 above the stop- I often get too aggressive- but generally trail about -$0.12 - $0.10 with a stop $0.02 under the round even number-
So, I've added to the am winning trade a 2nd winning trade- captured $0.32 on the 1st stop capturing a .80% gain.
The remaining stop will capture $0.24 gain or a .60% for an average net add of 0.7% on the 2nd trade. Potential for the day if this is it would be a +2.6% gain.
The one remaining partial positian can potentially go on for a higher gain yet though!
A very speculative entry based on oversold level , 2 blue bars- stop within $0.10 TQQQ Trade attempt 3
TQQQ working well- split stops trailing will net gains.
I also added a full position in TNA as it consolidated and got a tight reentry order $38.92 -
TQQQ sold 1/2 the position on price weakness=-raised remaining stop.
TNA trade weakened and stopped out for a net gain even with the added shares.
TQQQ trade 3- both stops trigger locking in gains.
1:22 pm
hOW THE DAY ENDED :tqqq WENT ON WITHOUT ME TO MAKE HIGHER MOVES . It's worth illustrating how my entries could have kept a partial stop top cover my cost, and could have achieved a longer hold in the uptrend- Chasing Pennies, and leaving $$$$. Ultimately, the goal will be to stay for the entire trade as long as the position is still in an uptrend.
Overall, Today's trading ended up with net gains versus losing trades.
The "best" trade was by frontrunning the indicators- on all time frames- relying on Price Action....as the primary signal.
ed out to be today's best trade
No Trading expected tomorrow as Personal time requires me to not be able to view the open or make any trades
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Post by sd on Jul 18, 2023 5:12:29 GMT -5
7-18-23 Futures mixed @ 6 am
Won't be trading today- have things to go do -at least for the morning ...and possibly most of the day...
Best trade execution yesterday was front running the indicators, based on the 2 minute time frame and seeing the transition from a price decline and taking an entry that was early -compared to the response from the indicators-
This was a significant early entry compared to where the 5 min time frame-would signal.
I did double up on several swing positions yesterday, and added back into some clearly extended TECH -names. I need to develop the skill of purchasing the Dips- versus the extended plays...
After viewing stocks on faster time frames, it's difficult to consider the Daily chart without realizing that a break in the momentum and waiting for a downturn to exit may be a significant give back of profits...Of course, that's my issue when trying to hold a swing trade-thru a period of volatility and potential pullback... The 2 hr chart is about the longest time frame I want to use these days.
Time to go....
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Post by sd on Jul 19, 2023 7:00:40 GMT -5
7.19.23 Futures up- adjusted stops in swing positions- Nice port gain yesterday- Won't be watching the open- Things to do...
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Post by sd on Jul 20, 2023 7:58:18 GMT -5
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Post by sd on Jul 20, 2023 7:58:29 GMT -5
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Post by sd on Jul 20, 2023 10:03:46 GMT -5
7.20.23n Mas futures again deep in the Red premkt...
The rebalance the Nas is doing with the big 7 Tech names- means those names are being sold to reduce the weighting in the index to a lower weighting- proceeds being used to buy more shares in the other 92 stocks....
The big 7 names have gained a tremendous amount in terms of their % in the Indexes...
The Nasdaq outperformance to the S&P is due to the growth in these tech names .
NFLX seeing a miss on last night's earnings.
Another day not focused on markets- IRA positions are stopping out - JPM making gains.
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Post by sd on Jul 21, 2023 6:17:20 GMT -5
7-21-23 Green across the indexes....@ 7 am...
Sector rotation - large cap tech weakening? Industrials continuing to rise....TSLA is up premarket after an earnings miss this week.
I'm adjusting my stop daily in JPM- according to the am premarket pricing Bid/Ask, JPM will likely open to continue a higher trend...
Regional banks index up +9% this week...
Nasdaq Special rebalance will happen at today's Close-
DOW is up for the past 9 days- industrials on the move- and this long of a run of up days is the exception.
Bought small positions at the Open to see if a stop under the 5 min low will hold on a positive open TNA, SOXL,TQQQ all opening on a gap up...
This was a 'Test' exercise with a small entry size and testing the stop loss on the Open- On some occaisions the 1st bar prints the low close to the Open and rips higher-
All 3 entry positions stopped out ....quickly.
I also bought TSLQ as Tsla opened higher, but then weakened. Again, testing the low of the green bar in TSLQ as a stop ....
Buy stop for ABNB if it moves higher-
Nasdaq weakens- long SQQQ
wEAKNESS IN THE TSLQ prompted me to raise the stop- Stop triggers for a $0.14 loss- Had hoped to see this gain for a 2nd day coinciding with weakness in the QQQ's.
Other catalyst was the earnings Miss from TSLA-
Going into the Close, I'm in the RED in the Trading account- Could have taken some small net gains, but tried to allow for trades to potentially work through some volatility and elect to trend higher-
Of course, OE- Options Expiration and a Nasdac Rebalance out of the big 7 mega caps has undoubtedly proved to be a drag this week...
Took a $2 loss on Meta as it's rebound off the lows today did not develop into much of a R.O.T.
Snapshot of the market performance as we head into the Close 3:45 pm
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