SD'S -2023 DON'T JUST SIT THERE TO SURVIVE- MOVE&PROSPER!

[sd]

Jason Leavitt- short video examples of drilling down from the daily to the Hourly to pinpoint better entries after an initial up move
www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xQNC3fGqpo
Consider a
www.leavittbrothers.com/videos/LBoverview.cfm

Futures are in the RED-
Yesterday, I intentionally bought a small position in the SOXS at the Close to carry over for today's Open.
We've had 3 days of weakness developing in the Tech/semis, and it seemed that the markets are finally listening to the FED- that a Rate cut is not likely this year---
On the bearish side- inflation is moderating, but slowly- Consumer debt and reliance on credit cards to finance their lifestyle is leading to new highs in personal date and higher credit card rates-
NVDA is still at it's YTD highs and above the fast ema- because it is the undisputed Gorilla in the semi sector-
but take heed what this Price action in AMD suggests is ahead:


The SMH index ETF- rolled over yesterday with a low Close well below the fast ema- If I was swing trading this, I'd view the 144 prior consolidation as a last line in the sand to find a support level.


TSLA has received 2 downgrades---- and is "Fully Priced" and has cLOSED JUST BELOW THE 34 /HOURLY.
Support should be found @250.00 - round number, Bank analyst 'Fair Price"


On the bullish side, the market breadth is finally spreading to other sectors and industry groups-

Perhaps the AI buzz has finally seen the last bit of FOMO - The Wisdom Tree AI SEEING a pause


The small caps are vulnerable to Rate increases- but the TZA/TNA is quite a volatile mover- I had a nice gain last week due to the TZA dropping far enough to trigger my low limit- well beyond where I thought it would go....but that was a fluke ...
I want those initial stop and limit orders to be outside of the price range, so I can adjust them to the level I want...

TNA IS THE 3X OF IWM .
It has had an upmove over the past weeks, but has put in 2 days with bearish open and Closes below the fast ema-






I blew it in the OPEN today! I allowed my BIAS to the downside and the initial gap higher open to blind me to the reality that the charts were showing....



This appears to be developing into a range day-- and I simply got on the wrong side- and ignored the indicators- My Bias is that the market will weaken- and that SQQQ, and SOXL should be leading- but mid morning is a mix .....
Unfortunately, I'm in the RED and don't want to attempt to revenge trade to get even- so, I'm taking a walk to check the vines ....and a breath of fresh air between the rains we're getting this week.

I spent most of the afternoon adjusting stops in the IRA, and added a few new positions- incl AMZN... MGK, MRK following thru higher... They announced a large new investment to expand their AI development for customers.

Near the Close- went long 50 TQQQ and planned to sell in the last minute- as price made a late up move to Close at a high for the day-
I ended up holding the position because I failed to make the adjustment in the prior order from limit to market- another error in execution on my part- today- Geesh, and after a really good day yesterday....


TRADE RECAP:
I held 25 shares at a Cost basis of $10.92 from the prior close- intentional holdover.

The trade opened with a Gap move higher- I waited to add to the trade at a lower level as Price based sideways. Price declined, MACD rolled over, and I exited the trade at a modest loss- at the same Cost of Entry for the shares I held over .
Overall, in retrospect, I give this trade a B+ -

What I did correct- I evaluated the Price action and tried to get an entry on the 3rd bar at a low level as opposed to a buy at a high level.
With the higher gap Open- i expected the trade would find it's level, and be a continuation of the Prior Day-
However, as price declined, the net loss approaching $20 was a net max loss for any trade. I ended up losing $17 on this single trade- That's perfectly OK .Losing trades are part of the process- if taken appropriately. This trade made sense, as did taking the stop out when it failed to act as anticipated.


The following trade attempts in SQQQ became the losers-

As i noticed, the Semi trade and the Tech trade move closely directionally.



I then went on to take several sloppy losing trades in SQQQ.

rESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANTLY LARGE LOSS ON THE DAY !

How did I allow myself to get drawn into taking these obviously counter indicator trades?
The initial gap open was bullish- and so the 1st trade was within that framework. Price was making a sideways consolidation, and i attempted to enter near the low of that range $20.17- However, I did not do my 'normal' stop just 2-3 cents below the low of that range- Which would have risked about $6-7 dollars - Instead, I gave it some extra room to drop- and only on the next lower bar- exited.
That was the 1st loss.
2nd trade was viewing a potential bounce off the ema- but the Histogram was increasing -
Trade 3 was on an uptick in the histogram, and price trying to rally - so, call it an attempt to get that entry at a R.O.T.
The final trade was a late entry - I could have used a buy-stop above the basing 10:15- 10:30

[sd]

6.23.23

Futures in the RED-
I'll be dumping my 50 share carry overnight TQQQ for a net loss at the open-
See if I can do a more disciplined approach today.
I'll limit my viewing/trading to the SQQQ;TQQQ today-

fOCUS TODAY - SQQQ,TQQQ - added a 1 min Renko chart into the mix.
will pull the stop on TQQQ to see if it doesn't respond higher into the open .

open


9:38


9:43 TQQQ stop hit $28.65


9:46



SQQQ 9:50 RALLYING HIGHER






WILL WE SEE A 10 AM TURN?

SOME INITIAL SLOWING/BASING - hOOK ON THE INDICATORS

ORDER FILLS - $38.84 STOP RAISED TO $38.78


10:20



STOP IS TIGHT- UNDER THIS RECENT BASE $38.77 ABOUT TO GET HIT.
STOP triggers


10:24


SQQQ DOMINATING 10:28



10:37


TQQQ TOOK OVER POST 10 AM AND MADE THE R.O.T. 10:51 UPTRENDING


tOOK A rISK- Bought the pullback to Add and average cost down- Price came right back to the $38.70- tagged that several times- My entry was a lag so filled at a higher $38.78 . Had a reaction move back up- so the stop at $38.67 will have to be a line in the sand-
I'm not very optimistic due to the lackluster performance to gain upside...



11:20 am tqqq weakens and soon stops out




SQQQ @ 11:24 -


I'm down -$120 on the day thanks to my error in not getting my sell-off yesterday of TQQQ into the Close- -
Not a very inspiring way to end the week! 2 down days in a row ....
Time to regroup a bit...
Went out to harvest cucumbers for pickles- TQQQ making it's recovery move this pm!



Final trade-Belatedly Long SQQQ with a $0.05 Risk


tqqq


3:45 tqqq, SQQQ with MACD crossovers noted.
Last couple of small size trades failed to get any momentum...Allowed the trades to stop out as opposed to tightening , just to see if they would get some ground. NOPE...

[sd]

wEEK IS DONE!
wHILE i'M NOT PLEASED WITH MY DAYTRADING THE LAST 2 DAYS- Fair to say....I'm chalking this up to getting some lessons handed to me-

I particularly like to monitor Devoid's trading at the LB website as well as the other traders- They all bring value to the conversation of trading- But D's is where I'm presently trying to get experience with. - as his approach is fairly simple to set up- at least the general parameters - However, he has several decades of applying this fast time frame approach- and he often will front run the actual macd signal and simply doesn't wait for the actual MACD cross to occur for an entry .
I particularly appreciate that he posts his winning- and losing trades, and is willing to demonstrate and impart some of his experience as he posts the charts.
Here's his chart post from today- He is adamant to not allow a trade to drop from winning to becoming a loser- a common theme on the website- The chart actually is a 1.5 day chart with the 1st MACD signal Thursday afternoon occurring 5 bars after he entered.
(Green arrow ) that saw a low drop on the stochastic, followed by a bullish green bar- I think that represents what is referred to as the stochastic "HOOK" to the upside- He made an entry on the 3rd green bar that essentially was a sideways consolidation.

Price moved higher out of that consolidation solidly higher. around 2 pm, Price made a sideways pause in the uptrend, with a sharp drop back to the rising 34 ema-
D has expressed a number of times that he finds the 34 ema level as a significant support for the uptrend, and potential area of resistance in a downtrend. That's also a lot of leeway for volatility- and Price to stray from the fast 10 ema. He is willing to allow this pullback to occur, initially, as long as it doesn't threaten the lower entry Cost.
So, in this chart and the trade made Thursday afternoon, he saw his position come back to the 34 ema 2x and he held , selling the high as price surged into the Close- Net +2.2% gain!

The Recap here- is the stochastic gave an early cross on Thursday pm as price rebounded, he entered, well ahead + $0.20 of where Price was as the Macd 5 min actually made the 0.0 line cross.


Today's 3 trades- D bought the deep gapdown Open- He apparently had judged that as an overdone reaction....and that had No support from indicators- Price on the next bar went higher, but failed to hold a higher move- Bar 3 price declined and he stopped out essentially at B.E..

4 bars later, Price made a red bar low, then several improved green bars where he entered. The stochastic had made an upside cross coming out of oversold... While the MACD histogram had barely improved, and the MACD fast line only made the cross 30 minutes later....
following that MACD signal cross, Price resumed a decline- stochastic had turned down, and stopped out very Close to the Entry cost-
3 bars later, (15 minutes) after Price had made 2 basing bars , the 3rd entry was made- the MACD had not gone negative- had given a 'Kiss' of the slow line , and the stochastic had given an upside cross off the 20 level.
This 3rd entry proved to capture the majority of the upside move. but, instead of allowing Price to make a retest of the 34 ema, he sold as Price came back below the fast 10 ema about 2 pm.
Courtesy of www.Leavittbrothers.com - a site I recommend for both taking a trial and Jason's Masterclass.



So, what is noted is that D's trades today were all in advance of the actual 5 minute MACD cross- likely more Closely aligned with an upturn in the stochastic- and, his vast experience in understanding Price Action, through thousands of trades, and the value of getting that lower entry close to the Point of Failure .
And, it's a system that he developed while working Full time with -perhaps-limited access to following the trade intraday?

Having noticed that an earlier entry often provides a lower Risk / higher net gain , I've also applied the idea of viewing price action view the 5 minute, 3 minute and even the 1 minute, time frames to learn how to potentially gaining a better entry and higher profit by getting in early on a trade.

So, I'll continue to use several views; on both a faster time frame and modifying the indicator MACD to be potentially more responsive.

bY adjusting the look back period & time frame, the faster MACD signal is generated- This can also generate more whipsaw signals.

[sd]

Won't be participating into the Open tomorrow- Doctors annual physical @ 9 am .....
Since last week showed a softening of the Tech uptrend- I would think that without a catalystr, markets take some profits.....
AHA! that's my bias...

[sd]

6.26+.23


10:45



sqqq POSITION HITS STOP


oDD THAT MY $20.10 trailing stop triggered as Price on stockcharts does not reflect the price pulling back to that level.
Took a re-entry $20.175 with a stop $20.09

Stop raised to B.E. on the up move.




LONG SQQQ

[sd]

6.27.23
Futures mixed- May add some industrials - to the IRA Holding ETN, looking at EMR,




Stop triggers- Entry was $37.87 stop $37.79 Loss of $0.08




adding a lot of industrials and maxed out the free cash in the IRA.....
Perhaps a rotation out of tech is underway-
Use the finviz screener- add your own search criteria.
finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=an_recom_buybetter,ind_specialtyindustrialmachinery,sh_price_o7

Really benefitting today in the IRA- Printing some $$$$ in the move in industrials-
Day swing back in TQQQ this pm- stop above my late entry as it's seeing a surge higher-
Small gain- as price momo stalled and hit the tight stop.
It since reversed higher to continue the uptrend - WCS a buy-stop above-

Put all the free cash to work in the IRA over the past 2 days... nice net daily gain on today's market continuing.
Also added several positions today in the Roth , aside from the day trades- Took a shot at TSLA, stopped out for a small loss.


bEEN BUSY today in both accounts- Seeing some aggressive upswings, I know these are likely seeing a market surge, that likely tops soon...and is not the start of a big up trend higher- so, I'll tighten stops - win on some- lose on some-

[sd]

6.28.23 Early premarket- Nas in the Red after a big day yesterday- Chip sector weak on possible sales restrictions imposed by Biden on chips being sold to China?


Adjusted stops on Swings- loaded up with industrials- Hope to see the move in industrials has some continuation this week.
Semis are likely topping out- June 16 swing high a top? SMH?
NVDA- arguably the dominant player and market leader rolled down
June 22 making that lower high, followed by a break lower.

Futures @9 am in the Red across the indexes.


At the open I took a small entry in SQQQ, and it sold for a $0.10 loss-
Following the open- a lot of positions opened below yesterdays close- I adjusted my stops higher to just below today's lows during the 1st 10 minutes-
The volatility swings in the price- NOTICE THIS 3 DAY CHART OF MSFT Day 1- a decline. Day 2 , a positive higher open, quickly fades and Price tests the prior low Close, followed by a late am reversal of trend back higher-
Today's weakness at the open gives me a spot to set a tight stop if the upmove from the weakness fades into a decline.


GNRC best performer again today- stop under today's swing lows-

Sold 1/2 the position as price -which seems extended, rolls down after a large up move this am.

Sell 1/2 $148.45

Stop 1/2 $146.90
sTOPS WERE BOTH TRIGGERED.


wENT LONG SQQQ


using the swing low green bar that came back to the fast ema as a place to set a stop-loss $19.51.
Entry cost was $19.5999

SQQQ FAILING TO GAIN ENOUGH MOM FOR AN R.O.T.




dOES THIS CONFIRM That the trend will resume for TQQQ, or is indicative of a potential for a sideways range to now develop?

@ ECB forum in Portugal, Powell meeting with the world bankers says that he does not think CORE inflation will get down to the 2% target this year, nor in 2024, but potentially will in year 2025.. Still maintaining a hawkish stance.

11:50 Tried another SQQQ entry with a stop below the red bars $19.45.


UNDECIDED -


i ADJUSTED THE STOP to $19.44 - about $0.02 below the swing lows of the red bars. Price went sideways from my entry on a bullish green bar with a positive MACD Histogram, but the MACD was well below the 0.0 line . While there was an upside cross of the fast line, and the histogram above the 0.0 line on the 3 min chart This was an attempt to get a tight entry, close to the Point of Failure.
I was going to add to the position on a pullback to $19.47 to lower my average cost .
This is the 2nd failed trade today...


MIDDAY - TQQQ still has the dominant trend to the upside- Positioning trades to go With the trend is the better winning strategy- on all time frames- I've tried the contrarian counter trend reversal 2x and both were losing attempts-
All total, I'm down $15 on both trades- having only taken 50 share positions each time.


WHAT's the Word when you're assumption is correct, but you're EARLY?
WRONG
Too busy posting to take a 3rd try and missed this!




3:15 pm SQQQ made a strong move @ 12:20-1 pm, and since has paused and gone sideways ...



One of the things I have noticed in D's trades is he uses a 5 minute time frame, but often front runs the 5 minute MACD crossover- by a significant amount- including Buying the Open gap down -
What is potentially striking about that "take a chance" on the Entry is that will the gap down be close to the very low of the day?
I've attempted to try that a couple of times and setting a stop just $0.10 below my entry- and it seems very random - particularly when price opens higher- on a gap up...

Something to learn ....

In terms of timing an entry- and a potential Exit- The Closer one can enter a position Long that is Close to the point where the rationale for the trade would be proven incorrect- is taking on a minimal Risk - assuming that the reason for going Long coincides with some indication- Price bar action, Indicator hook and upturn, MACD histogram/crossover pending. Stochastic rising. Combination of all ....

So, As i've started viewing the same Stock/ETF on multiple time frames, and you cannot help but notice that every positive indication on the 5 minute time frame occurs faster on the 3 minute and the 2 minute time frame-
Along with the greater sensitivity and faster signals will come more whipsaws-but potentially getting the earlier entry in a larger trend will offset the whipsaws...
Here's a 2 minute chart with 2 different MACD values- with one providing a bar or 2 earlier signal, based on the MACD crossover. What confirms this single indicator signal? Perhaps the stochastic is the best confirmation indicator?

[sd]

6.26.23 Futures all GREEN!
Market is very resilient- wanting to go

Took 2 shots at TQQQ- both losers- Had the opp to sell for a small gain, but tried to give it a chance to make an upmove.

Swing positions- Adding to GTLS with a stop just under the entry cost of the 2nd add-
F made a large move this am- I set profit stops at 3 levels - all hit as the trade move was extended. 125 shares-
Sold 25;50;49 at staggered lower levels that triggered.

Industrials breaking higher. Steel stocks all moving
SCHW gap open higher. xlf gap open higher. KRE- Move stalling

Schw stopped out at cost- still holding XLF with a trailing stop

apparently had 2 screens open and posts here were not posted.

Jumping back to the indicators and altering the time frames on several.
Looking for an earlier signal - let's compare the faster 12,16,9 MACD vs the standard 12,26,9

and let's do the different stochastic setting as well .

Blue vertical line on the chart is on the faster MACD upside cross, while the Red line is the downside cross.




The 1st MACD signal Jan 6 occurs on a bullish green bar Closing at $385 following a series of Red and Blue bars in a sideways range.
The 12-26-9 MACD went above the 0.0 line 1 day later. The Full stochastic had made a cross several days earlier in advance of the fast or slow stochastic.
The Full stochastic makes numerous crosses of the fast and slow lines-

Feb 9, Price made a bearish Red bar Close below the fast ema. This prompted the faster MACD to signal a cross - histogram below the 0.0 line.
The conventional 12-26-9 followed a day later

The next MACD signal occurs Mar 20, but was preceded by a bullish green bar 2 days prior that reacquired the fast ema.

Notice that prior to that on May 3 & May 6- Price closed above the declining fast ema with 2 bullish green bars- but did not get an inc=dicator crossover...

[sd]

6.30.23 Markets rallied today from the Open-
I put all free capital to use in the IRA, too busy to worry with day trades per se-
Got a mix of investments including energy, steel, materials, and some emerging mkts ex China, and India. Wynn and LVS , Jets,
Took profits in DLR yesterday, but it's made another up move today .
Pave and infrastructure names are all higher- with the aggregate names up strong the month of June. I should have been paying more attention to the market rotations...versus dabbling at day trading- As D says- the real $$$ is made in holding Swings- for multiple days.... and getting the benefit of it gapping higher on the Open with a position from the prior days. Something I struggle with is setting my stops too tight-

Did take a big loss $70.00 in SOFI today as I jumped into it with a Buy as the News about the supreme court stopping Biden's plan to 'forgive' 10k

I bought on the news without verifying the price - Since the chart has a 15 second lag, I thought I'd get a fill at the low of the day, but instead got a fill at the rebound high of the next bar - I set a stop and took the loss.... Next time I'll glance at the bid/ask before punching the Buy button !
I did start a small cap value position IJR today-
The relative Rotation graph by Julius @ stockcharts suggests a move in the value segment vs growth may be developing---

[sd]

7.2.2023 One of the most interesting aspects of the Leavittbrothers.com website is the different approaches and interpretations that different traders post-
Several of the traders often do the Fib analysis, looking for a price topping, or a retracement for an entry- and one of the common entries several of these traders look for is what they refer to as their "Red Box" trade-
I think this is typified as Price is downtrending , makes a low, and then fails to make a lower low, but makes a slightly higher low . Sometimes they look for this trade at the .941% level- which is Fib voodoo for a pullback just a few cents above the prior swing low that was made- and that is an automatic entry signal with a stop a short distance away under the prior low.. The goal is to time an entry that has a very tight stop to the P.O.F. and perhaps the Risk is a small $0.10 or so cents.
In this post , Geo refers to the "combination" of different traders approaches all achieving the same goal- identifying an opportune moment to get into a trade at a low cost and to see that trade go on to move decisively higher and become a net winning trade. He refers to another traders (Beast) approach where that trader closely watched for the upturn - Hook in the stochastic signal that coincided with a potential change in trend-
Obviously, the faster the time frame, the earlier the signal and also the potential for numerous other failed trades - but the potential for much larger gains relative to the closely set stop can lead to a position of holding a winning long for multiple days- .
Since i don't ascribe much credence to the Fib scenario- The example set here by Geo focuses not on the FIB & Fork projection- but on what is commonly applied TA- Price action - a higher low is made,
A 'failure' that is common place- is the 1st attempt to reverse a downtrend- so the higher low suggests that buyers step in , and the stock makes a successful R.O.T. going on to make a higher high, higher low.
The essence of an uptrend-

Will copy Geo's chart here- Visit the Leavittbrothers.com website for a free 2 week trial ...





often, the stochastic will issue multiple signals on small price moves-
Notice in the above chart , the MACD made an upside cross as price was still in aa decline- and even went lower.
So, this also speaks to understanding that taking any indicator at face value is likely a mistake- unless it is corroborated by the Price action on a higher time frame....

Got a short day tomorrow with July 4 Tuesday-
Bought a new Catch-Alive trap , as the resident raccoons and possums are using my yard & garden as their personal buffet -
I will try to Trap and then transport these felons to a point about 5 miles away that is across the Neuse river for them to take up homesteading...






























7.2.2023

[sd]

7.3.23 Futures mixed

Nas up, S&P slighly green, Dow Red ,but hours to go...@ 7 am

2 of the guilty escaped custody



live trap- from tractor supply



Really odd- one of the traps the door had been tripped and was locked shut- with no one inside.
The other trap was turned completly 90 degrees, dood didn't trip.

Tsla beat on earnings and production and is higher this am- Not a position any longer---

Short day today with markets Closing early- Will the market activity be slow due to many people taking today off?
I would assume volume will be relatively low today.

July is often seasonally strong until the middle of the month...

No day trades- Open choppy and sloppy for small caps- ridiculous price action in TNA,TZA

3 charts- left is the TNA 2 min, middle is the TZA 5 min, and 3rd right is the TNA 5 minute.


The ridiculous volatility in TNA - big drop at the open, a rip higher and then a pullback--Cannot figure that out-
Sold MP as it had started higher but came back and hit my entry cost- Bought STLD with the proceeds-
Added FCX...

I've diversified the Portfolio holdings -particularly in the IRA -
Holding a wide mix outside of TECH .

[sd]

Market breadth widening- Most of these are recent portfolio adds- the summary chart shows the performance over the past 1 week. I intend to try to keep a reasonable stop- but protect the entry as soon as possible.



OK- Tonight I'll be annotating my present positions with the mindset I intend for these to be multi day- perhaps multi weeks swing trades- and not react to them as I do for day trades- It's one thing to protect a winning position from becoming a loser- but giving the trade the potential to run until it perhaps closes below the fast ema- or has that break-gap away- ....from the fast ema...Got to trim part of that when it occurs.

some global exposure by EMXC doesn't include China. - Mexico is benefitting from US mfg made there- and the EWM trade is an early signal that Malaysia may bounce from oversold- pure spec.

GDX trade is profitable- Energy perhaps has bottomed, and the infrastructure positions are seeing upside- including the steel sector.
I sold the MP position to buy STLD -

I'm shying away from Tech- it simply seems that the tech trade which led this year has reached extreme levels - NVDA certainly has the lead- but AAPL is over it's skis- even as a 'safe' tech trade. AAPL's dominance and share repurchasing has seen it's shares continuing to uptrend...

[sd]

7.5.23 fUTURES IN THE red
hEADING for a new home across the river

These guys were safely released into a wooded section near the river.... but on the other side...



Several groundhogs are on the Most wanted list- as well as any more raccoons, possums . Tearing up our fruit plants.

Adjusted stops in the Roth & IRA to be outside of the Bid/ASK range- The opening volatility will take out the tight stops-
a lot of RED in the positions today @ 9:45-
Took a long position entry in SOXL $24.75 with a stop below the low of the open $24.60 -This was based solely on Price making a rebound off the Low





odd the color changes in the 5 minute bars!


Looking IFFY here @ 9:59 am



Testing the early lows here- Stop is a few cents lower.


Bought NFLX on the Goldman upgrade and target up $170.00 higher.




A lot of red in the Port positions today- I sold MP last week to Buy STLD- MP is up +8% off the open.


TQQQ- OPENED TODAY WITH AQ BIG GAP DOWN OPEN AND REVERSED HIGHER. often, TQQQ and SOXL will follow each other- in lockstep



had 10 META, adding 2 more shares on the positive price action, freed cash, and the news that Meta is offering a text based platform on it's instagram account that may be a twitter competitor. Lolo has held Meta for a substantial gain for several months- and recently doubled her position as well- stops for her position cost basis is wide and still locks in nice profits,,,, Done very well by not holding stops too tight.

SOXL trying here @ 10:24 -


China economy has not made a big recovery as expected. Tense situation economically as the cry is for companies to reduce their reliance on China for mfg.
Along with that the political tensions and military being provocative with US ships and planes lends to a difficult situation.

Down +$500 across the IRA and Roth, with weakness in the materials and steel positions-

SOXL stops out 11:20 as well as a number of my other positions- on continued weakness.


rEALLY got nailed at the Open with a lot of gap downs- I had set wider stops- and a number were hit today- I thought the steel sector would hold up well on an infrastructure essential...So much for Logic- Knowing that the Open was likely volatile, and a conventional tight stop would get triggered and filled at the low of the open- I had made my stops wider... figuring the volatility would turn to the upside.... So, I came back late am to adjust stops, but seeing no rebound- Oddly enough I have gains today in JETS, PAVE, IFRA.....
With a large paper loss in the position, I see the attempt at price to make a bit of a consolidation here- so, I'm setting a stop $104.90- We have an upturn in the 5 min MACD- but stochastic doesn't feel it at all!

The reality is that I have to be willing to sell and take the loss- but this is also a place where a buyer would be adding on the dip...

Markets waiting to digest the Fed minutes this pm....
I've given back the gains of the past week in just a few hours!.

Repeating- Record 1st halfs & the following 2nd halfs

The Nasdaq "Best" - This year is the biggest gain for the Nasdaq



This big mover looks extended, but can it continue?


Motley fool Article explaining :
www.fool.com/investing/2023/07/02/this-ai-stock-gained-nvidia-2023-its-much-cheaper/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article


Today ended up seeing losses and a lot of Red-
What I was surprised at was the selling in the Infrastructure theme- I had just initiated a relatively large steel exposure with X, SLX and on Monday, I dumped a position in MP to raise cash and bought STLD- I felt MP was flat, also held ALB- and bought STLD- Monday as I sold MP to fund the trade-
At the time , it appeared to be the right decision with the momentum clearly favoring STLD- 0

Well, that was Monday, and markets were closed yesterday. Today, futures were all in the Red, and i saw some ridiculously low Bid/Ask pricing premarket-

The bid/ask ratio showed me that my stop would automatically get triggered, but likely filled at a significantly lower opening price-
So, I pulled some stops- and, indeed, the market opened much lower than I expected it would-
Getting back to the choice of selling MP to buy STLD on Monday- Just the opposite reaction occurred- MP gapped up wide on the open and STLD dropped hard at the Open.
This screenshot compares the 2 stocks on a 5 minute time frame-
As often seems to happen- the market makers push the Open as low as they can to trigger stops- and then the follow up often reacts just opposite...
so, here is the 5 minute chart over a few days- of both stocks-


OK, so this happens, took me by surprise, because I had convinced myself a significant rally was underway in the marterials and Infrastructure names- But the steel sector positions all tanked, along with materials- The Pave and INfra etfs managed to hold their ground- but will likely go lower tomorrow- I've got gains in both of those, but will be setting a tight stop to protect those gains, and try to offset some of today's losses


EOD: I'm almost all cash after today's thrashings!
One of the traders at LB- Devoid - pointed out that he pulled his stops initially seeing that everything was going to open below his set stops- and also tried to manage the positions- He initially had a portfolio loss of -2.8%, and finished the day down just -.5% ..

Markets showing red across the board...

[sd]

-7-6-23
Futures All in the red due to a very strong June Payroll- doubling the estimated Jobs that filled-
Took a beating yesterday- and it appears the beating will continue....
-
Big gaps on the Open- Daytraded SOXL- bought & raised stop to trail higher- sold for $+0.04 ....
Jets had a big gap down open- just above my stop - I raised my stop to within $0.01 of the open lows, and bought another 100 Jets- just in case the market might snap back- Nope- stop was triggered and filled for a net loss as price continued lower.

@ 10:50, I've jumped in and out of TQQQ- as it had based- I got in early, it tried to rally, came back and I had tightened a stop close to entry- tried the same 2 more times- it failed to get any momentum- took a small net loss on those -

Went long SDS, SKF- shorting the market & financials-
Between yesterday's pullbacks and stops and again today- seeing about a $1k drop in the accounts. and mostly now in cash-
META position is still up and in the green today...

Just a lot of RED today as well as yesterday! Seems the market is possibly finally realizing that the FED is serious- in it's nor easing policy for this year- and , maybe the bears crying recession for later this year will see some credible selling....


tRADE IN tqqq FINALLY WORKING- IN THE GREEN- SOLD A 1/5 POSITION





Weakening @ 1:30


Stopped out- and then Price rallying back higher- Stops end up with net gains, offsetting the prior losing entries.



I tried for a pop in SQQQ but that failed- My position in META stopped out @ $292.-- Net relatively small gain....as it was a recent position taken...


Watching a tom Bowley- Earnings beat webinar-

[sd]

7-07-23 Futures flat/mixed

From the LB website- GEO- who normally relies on Fib & Fork projections for trades, illustrates combining that with "Hook" signals using stochastic and MACD that a previous member employed- That Previous member- "Beast" gave up contributing as his Parkinson's progression made it too difficult to contribute- That unfortunately was also the outcome of IRA- one of the last participating long time members on this site. Ira's disease progression forced him to go into an extended care facility where he has continued mobility issues- Hopefully the advances made in medicine and better advanced research will find a way to moderate this disease's effects in the near future- The potential powerful advances AI may offer in medical research will prove fruitful in the near future, as well as using different scientific approaches...




While this is a multi day 15 minute chart that he uses to display price action and his projections-
He includes 2 variations of the BB- one a standard 20,2 setting, the other a wider 80 setting.
The RSI 'standard'is RS! 14- but he increases it's sensitivity by using the RSI 12.
Standard Slow stochastic 14,3 ; standard MACD 12-26-9
Different CCI values -40,160

In this sample, he notes that the "hook" signals as indicators turned inthe green outline would have generated a trade out of, and then back in the position based on hooks- which simply duplicate what the price action is showing.
His goal is to wait and allow the trade to potentially reach the top line- and to be a seller once it reaches that.

His entry long- Black arrow at the bottom of the left fork corner- would be the potential .941 price retracement- coming back intraday to almost -reach the prior low -

The Fork parameters the Anchor point, the top point, the bottom point...
The bottom point was set at a mid day 1pm price bar low June 23- with the highlighted entry occurring on the 3 pm higher low-

While the basic tenent of the entry he demonstrates is enhanced with the Fork
and price seems to be right at that slightly higher low from the price that preceded it, this can also be seen in the prior days-
Particularly June 20 price action- Price recovery from a decline, positive indicator support MACD up cross, STO cross, and the Open the next day - while lower than the preceding Close, does not go below the prior Swing low.
The price move higher was a substantial upmove, Price regaining superiority above the ema's -looking to be a solid R.O.T. underway...

Recognizing this potential improvement in the Price action is a valid way to get a position close to the P.O.F. -so a very low % Risk-
To nail that exact entry point on 6-23 would take a hawk like focus to make the Buy at that exact point- Until the Blue bar actually Closed above the prior Red bar, you do not have a 'confirmed' Price bar reversal.



let's view this on the 5 minute chart over a few days .
wHAT'S NOTICED IS THAT several prior days offered valid entry signals -
Potentially 6-20 saw a considerable intraday recovery from the 11 am low.
6-21 offered a compelling entry as price made a lower open from the prior day's close and then moved higher-
6-22 saw an initial gap down, but price again moves higher. This becomes a 3rd higher low- That supported the idea that a trend reversal was in the making-
To then take the lower Price action on June 23 that was a breakdown of the attempted trend reversal- does not seem to be a smart bet on taking an entry-
Certainly recognizing the basing action that was building, but it was not indicating a price reversal would occur here-
I feel like this Fork & entry point was done after the fact //// easier to do in hindsight!
Taking an entry once a multi bar basing action is in place does offer a well defined Point of Failure below the lows of the base though, and is relatively well defined and very low Risk...

From yesterday's Close-



My knee jerk reaction yesterday was to take 2 positions bearish on the markets- SDS- shorts the SPY, SKF shorts financials-
both closed in the red yesterday- and I'm down a bit on both- stop is below the swing low in SDS- which opened higher than the Close.
Will take a loss here .before we go lowere in SDS




Poor trading vehicle in SKF- big spread, gappy price action- low liquidity-and, I'll take a loss at $18.48




STLD- initially headed up , I felt I would protect this higher entry with a stop at my net cost basis- expecting the momentum to carry higher-



soxs SPEC - anticipating a similar rebound try , but it went lower, stops out.


@ Midday-


XLB ,KWEB,Pave putting some green in today- all new positions...

pm day trade in SQQQ still active stop 19.33



stop $19.42! @ 3:58


Jumped stop to $19.45- triggered 15:59:38 with 22 seconds to spare!
Nice to end the week with a winning day trade at the Close! It was a reversal of Trend trade, and was not entered early.
Entry was belated @ 14:40 pm $18.99


Turns out that Devoid had also jumped into SQQQ-