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Post by sd on Apr 26, 2023 6:13:36 GMT -5
Rat's projected move in SQQQ- Reached the target line-
4-26-2023 MSFT beat -GOOG down a bit on seeing net declines, but plans a large stock buyback
Jefferies downgrades TSLA- Price target $185- TSLA is down to $165....
First Republic Bank is teetering- despite getting inflows from other large banks to help stabilize it-
This underscores the concerns about other banks potentially defaulting...
It will open on another gap lower today
Today's open for the Tech sector will likely be a gap up -because of MSFT's guidance higher. despite The Azure segment showing declines... MSFT also promotes the Chat GPT- AI as a potential source of added revenue it can monetize in the future-
Futures in the green
GOLD previously had an upsurge- likely prompted by the concerns around the banks- Seemed to have lost it's momentum - but will concerns arise about the banks prompt a resurgence?
GDX- typically makes larger moves-potentially basing here:on the recent decline-
Reviewing the 5 minute chart over recent days....and I may watch this for a potential day trade
Note that the MACD Up-Cross 4-21 following the rebound from the sharp decline at the open- was a whipsaw divergence - and the second upthrust also prompted the MACD to continue to make the upcross, but price momentum continued to the downside until 12:45-
since then , Price has established a potential low @ $33.30 ...
The stochastic cross with a green bar up move ...is an early signal. With the likely gap open, I will defer to the faster time frames to view the price along with the 5 min. Also will watch the semis-
Whipsawed for a loss in GDX-$9 ; Break even gain in TZA,TQQQ - Buy stop for TQQQ on an upmove.
Was filled on the higher move, and gave it a $0.20 stop- That higher move was the top- I'm down -$18 between loss in TQQQ and GDZ- Markets looking sideways- Got to take the Boat to get serviced- Out for the time being....
Small cap bear TZA chopped around in a wide range and has since broke out to the upside- not chasing it here- hooks on the M<acd, Stoch and a blue bar ...
Tried SQQQ and got stopped out- Losses on the day -$28.00 - Maybe this afternoon when I get back I can get on the right side of a trend. Just getting chopped /whipsawed...
At the EOD- didn't get back until after 4 pm- Meta made the markets happy! Up large after hours as it reports...
LOLO is very happy, holding her position into earnings....taking that chance- and seeing her position up $27/share in the after hours-
W-C-S- held some of those shares I sold into the last big pop....
The actual gains & outperformers- are a select group of Mega caps whose large cap overweightings have carried the indexes higher-
What is necessary is a market that has broad participation-
ENPH- Tanks- as Cal regulates and reduces the return for Solar-investments.
AMZN- reports tomorrow- Expecting declines in it's AWS platform....
So, it seems that we have a divided market- select megacaps carry the indexes, but under the hood- the small caps- will be in trouble due to the higher rates- and they employ 70% of the workforce....
Regional banks still very much under pressure- Obviously, the economy - and the GDP-will come in underwhelming.....and perhaps the net reality of slower growth eventually sinks in.... Simply my Bias speaking out of turn....
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Post by sd on Apr 27, 2023 8:08:27 GMT -5
4-27-2023 Futures well into the GREEN! -META up +$30.00 premarket-
Meta Q1 2023 Earnings $META
Revenue $28.65b, est. $27.67b
EPS $2.20, est. $2.01
Ad revenue $28.10b, est. $26.76b
Facebook daily active users 2.048, est. 2.018
Reality Labs operating loss $3.99b, est. loss $3.8b
LINK to article -
www.cnbc.com/2023/04/26/facebook-meta-q1-earnings-report.html
nOT TRADING WELL TODAY-
Presently in the RED trading - most recent trade was going Long SOFI with a Buy stop set @ $6.04 above the basing range- stop on entry $5.97 Price action is slow,,,, and the indicators that had been positive are showing a bit of a hook down -
Got chopped up trying to trade TZA- poor entries- I should have respected the uptrending fast ema as a point to enter,,,,
Made a small gain in TSLQ- I think- have to check the actual fills
lONG UDOW- Here's the chart of the DIA breaking out -
@ 12:15- i'M OUT OF THE red IN THE ACCOUNT AND AT NET SLIGHT GAIN - UDOW & SOFI (FINALLY)
uDOW HIT THE TIGHT STOP, MOVED A STEP BSACK HIGHER- i TOOK A NEW RE-ENTRY HERE WITH A TIGHT STOP UNDER THE PRIUOR BAR'S LOW.
rAISING THE TRAILING STOP ON SOFI- SMALL PENNY MOVES- TRADE IS NET PROFITABLE-
PERHAPS A LESSON HERE- I forgot I had bought UPRO this am and failed to follow it, and without any stops in place- Sloppy on my part, but fortunately, the pullback this am was shallow- and I would have stopped out had I been watching it closer- My lack of attention finds this to be my best gain so far on the day.
12:42- Potential R.O.T. in TZA taking an entry -very tight stop
Out of SOFI
holding TQQQ and UPRO- sold a partial in UPRO
@ 2:38- stopped out of both TQQQ @ B.E. Sold the last portion of UPRO with a stop that was jumped up following green bars well away from the ema- I elected to not just trail at the PSAR -on the momentum surge.
@ 2:59- filled on buy stops TNA, UPRO,TQQQ 100 share positions each
Seeing bullish momentum- stops up to B.E. and will trail below each higher bar -3:07 pm
The decision to try to add size was in seeing an overall market uptrending...
Stops were taken out-
@ the EOD...I'm relatively pleased that I was able to end the day in the Green- Not big, but made up for the earlier losses with some decent trades-
I have to work on making better entries overall- and -potentially use a trailing buy-stop to target that R.O.T.
Also, as noted earlier- the UPRO position was my best performer for the day with a $62.00 net gain- This was taken early in the day- the pullback overlooked, and it caught a later R.O.T. that trended for the remainder of the day. Overall, this ability to withstand some volatility -and yet to stay with the trade is a characteristic that D @ LB has mentioned several times- I've tried setting stops a bit wider- but that doesn't seem to pan out in my favor ....
The review:
I started off the day with a bullish bias -due to the futures pre market- I figured- incorrectly that the semis would be a big beneficiary of positive momentum-
1st trade made was a small partial entry in SOXL - gingerly 25 shares @ $12.86...@ 9:40 I added 25 @ $12.95- and sold 49 shares @ 9:41 $12.87 -
What was WRONG with taking this trade? It was obviously in a decline/downtrend.....I was anxious to try to Nail that almost bottom entry .
I had a bounce after a pause in the decline on that 4th price bar- I saw a small bullish hook on the stochastic- but it was well below the 20 line- Price was obviously downtrending- well below the declining ema- I also added to the trade as it appeared to be making a higher move- At the time, the price bar was bullish-blue -but turned Red as it dropped lower .
The only GOOD was that I realized I had made an impulsive early trade and sold it as it declined- captured a few cents from the 1st entry and lost a few on the add- I lost -$1.05 on the trade.
Let's note what would have been the better entry.....
As the chart illustrates- the downtrend changed from red bars to several attempts with blue bars to pause the decline, and the stochastic tried to make a move higher-
At the same time , the MACD histogram went from well below the 0.0 line to show lessening in the strength of the decline- When price finally made a higher pivot followint that 10:06 RED bar- the stochastic crossed above the 20 line and the MACD made a crossover of the 0.0 line-
The 10:14 blue bar made a close above the fast ema- and that preceded the green bar.
Potentially, an early entry would have seen that the 10:14 bar that was about to close above the fast ema, and -noting the prior bar high that penetrated the fast ema- a buy-stop potentially would be set to add an entry- or - an entry would be taken and a stop under the $12.60 lows would be initiated. That stop-loss would potentially be set about $0.02 below the lows of those price bars- so the Risk on a move above would be approx $0.15 to 0.12 assuming an entry at a higher move $12.70- stop $12.58 .
Consider the end result- if one entered on that @ $12.75, and sold at the end of the day- and ignored the up and down price action - A sell at the EOD would be $13.50/.
Potentially, a net 1 day gain of $0.75 or a gain of +5.8% - Of course, there were several price declines that violated the uptrend by closing below the ema's-
But- Perhaps this example illustrates the potential to split a position - one 1/2 with a tight trailing stop- another with a stop that essentially says, I'll take a longer view- get my shares above my cost of entry- and see where it takes me.....
See that 11:24 breakout MOMO move- with a 2nd bar that pulls even further away from the Ema?
That's unsustainable-parabolic momentum- and it deserves to have stops trailed aggressively behind Price - because -almost always, Price reverts back to the Mean.
Here's the reality- the momentum R.o.T. shortly after the 10 am hour , went into a longer trend reversal that ultimately lasted for the duration of the Day, albeit with some early volatility- So , capturing a $0.10 or $0.15 move in the very short term is fine- but to capture a $0.75 move is a significant outperformer- albeit with some greater Risk and more volatility. So, breaks of the fast uptrending ema often tested the 34 ema -on this fast 2 minute time frame -
After I post this , I will also post the 5 minute chart.
This exercise - at the EOD- hopefully will assist to reinforce better entry conditions as a criteria- and put my preconceived Bias's aside. Properly Trade the Chart- Nobody gives a d**n about my Bias.
Because I had a preconceived Bias about what would be an ideal trading candidate, I was focused on the Semis- After that initial loss, I went on to see what were other possible trades- Again- a Bias I hold is that small caps are likely going to have a difficult future in the new normal we are heading into. So TZA- 3x short on the small caps .
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Post by sd on Apr 28, 2023 7:13:48 GMT -5
4-28-2023
Futures in the RED @ 8am.....
AMZN initially went higher last week on it's earnings in AH- but management's guidance was conservative- and the market took back the gains and this am are down -3%
Fed meeting this week? Likely we will see another .25 increase....and guidance will be- "We will respond to the Data" -meaning inflation.
Bar by Bar- SMB video
www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLfCbpm14rw
Al Brooks- Price Action bar by bar I haven't watched this- Have a book by him- on Price Action ....
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zw2_bc69euU
OK, 9 am -
Today, I'll be using a 1 minute chart with PSAR- to see if I can get that earlier entry- but with the indicator support-
I'll watch TQQQ,SQQQ- TZA,TNA, SOXS,SOXL and perhaps the UPRO,SDS -
stopped out on 2 early trades- Buy stop just filled on UDOW- Dow is in the green- Nas in the Red.
Down -$30.00 in the RED- tried 300 SOFI on this consolidation-
Stop is @ B.E. 2 minutes in...Now jumped up $58.28 on the gap up
Stopped out $58.56 fill- Price had hit a high of $58.72- This puts me in the green, wiping out my losses on the 1st 2 trades-
Watching both screens SDOW, UDOW.
Took a Re-entry in UDOW as it popped higher- but then dropped back- and hit my stop- but the price low looked to be 3 cents above my actual stop-price- HMMM.
Tried it again on the next upmove- . Sdow is in the Red, UDOW in the blue and in an uptrend...but going sideways....Presently barely in the green- If this stops out, I'll be back in the RED...
Slightly back in the RED- Choppy and sloppy price action- SDOW making a run to move higher- SQQQ also
Took a position in SQQQ @ 11:00 with a very tight stop $29.77 Risking
Stopped out 11:19- This had the look of a potential bounce about to occur-entered- note the stochastic did not agree though- but had some upside from the other indicators.....also, I saw SCHW making an upside reversal- thought SOFI would trade in tandem.
Stepping outside for a breather- between the rain showers
Here's how the experienced Pro -D- traded TQQQ:
i.imgur.com/WDGb1HT.png
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Post by sd on Apr 29, 2023 6:20:26 GMT -5
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Post by sd on Apr 29, 2023 7:03:50 GMT -5
Reviewing Day Trades- My largest losing trade Friday was -$15- 50 share early entry in TZA. 9:31 entry
Best winning trade + $26.00 on just a 50 share. UDOW.
Overall, I executed poorly- ended up negative on the day with small losses from -$4 to -$10. and down -$30 when i called it for the day..
D- @ LB's site- trades a lot of size - but also has the ability to sit out some volatility- seems to get an early entry slightly ahead of the 5 min MACD signal- and has the experience in trading TQQQ as one of his favorite go-to- trades. He primarily prefers trading to the long side- as that also coincides with the market's tech trend...
With limited time today before other chores call-
My largest losing trade was taken just into the open- and perhaps my mistake was allowing my Bias- to influence me to take a short on the small caps- I have to admonish myself because i have a strong belief that we are ultimately going to see small caps under continued pressures in the bank and high rates as we go forward-
and, I took this trying to use the 1 minute chart as a guide.
Premarket futures had been in the RED- that seemed to favor a bearish entry would be with the market's direction- Again- that goes to support the bearish approach-
TZA had closed near the day's low on Thursday...$33.81-but had uptrended several days earlier in the week. I clearly jumped in, hoping for a move higher- and price indeed opened above the prior day's Close.
Viewing the 1 minute chart- Price opens bullish higher- on big momentum - Indicators -of course had popped higher - entry on the 2nd bar -seeing a bullish move underway-
Fill was a market buy . The 3rd bar drops lower- and a stop was set under the prior day's red bar lows at the Close-
Stop was taken out $33.77.
Had I held onto the trade, the loss would have seen a substantially larger drop-
Trade 2 - taken @ 9:41 -11 bars into the open-
This had similarities to the TZA-
SQQQ had downtrended the prior day -but appeared to have made a basing sideways near the Close, with indicators potentially higher-
 -
To the Friday only view :
Price initially opened higher, but sold off on Bar 1 -
Bar 2 price pushed lower, but closed a bit higher- but still below the Open.
Bar 3 was a still an inside bar- - with Bar 4 breaking out above the opening high.
In a situation like this- a buy-stop entry above the opening high was a better probability .
My actual entry was following a pullback to the ema and the move back higher- Ross would have suggested to be a BUYER as price comes back to the uptrending ema.
my entry was on a continuation move higher-$29.7999
Price made a following bullish bar higher, and then a 2nd bar Closed below the fast ema-
I sold as price declined , losing $0.06 on the trade or -$3.
This weakness coincided with the downturn in the bullish indicators-
I did not retry this until later in the day .
As I'm reviewing this 1 min chart - @ 10 am, price made an attempt to move higher with 5 bullish green bars-
The +DI made an upside cross, but the MACD and stochastic both failed to make that up cross. and did not validate that move.
Conversely, the bullish green bar that followed the large drop @ 10:30- prompted the MACD to make the upcross
i THEN FLIPPED TO TAKE A WINNING TRADE IN UDOW -
BUT CAME BACK LATE TO TRY SQQQ ON A POTENTIAL BREAKOUT HIGHER- TOTALLY MISSED THE IDEAL POTENTIAL RE-ENTRIES...
2 LOSING TRIES 11:01; 11:13
wINNING TRADE TAKEN 10:00:51 UDOW- 50 $58.055
Continuation of an uptrending move on the Daily -
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Post by sd on Apr 30, 2023 18:53:16 GMT -5
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Post by sd on May 1, 2023 9:20:31 GMT -5
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Post by sd on May 2, 2023 7:17:09 GMT -5
5-2-2023 Futures flat- waiting on the FED-
Uber beats, up +8% preopen.
Dermatologist this am- will not see the open....
Hindenburg short sellers going against Icahn Enterprises- CARL will be pissed -and vocal I bet.
Fed expectations - a 25 bpts raise-but perhaps will indicate a pause based on market conditions-
The Fed aggressive rate hikes are what has torpedoed the banks holding low rate bonds....
It will be interesting to see the market's reaction to JPM taking over FRC holdings- JPM jumped higher initially, but closed near the lows of that range -
Debt ceiling will expire June 1- according to Yellen- This is the next fiscal cliff we are facing, and the Administration does not want any restraints supposedly put in by the Republicans, McCarthy has put forward.....
GOP plan will halt the $20k student debt buyback- also halt some renewable subsidies.
TQQQ opened yesterday below the prior Close and ended up Closing just 3 cents higher than the open Perfect undecided Doji just shy of making a new recent high-
Dermatologist and now heading out to get the boat- from it's annual service--
Started to review the 5 minute signals seen in TQQQ yesterday-
Regional banks still under pressure ....
WOW- got back this PM to find the Banks all under greater pressure, Gold higher , and markets in the RED-....
EVEN JPM gave back all of it's prior day's gains......
This point about the MACD provided by Beast @ LB's- This is one of the reasons I am presently a member there- Just because of the various traders willing to share their approaches- without a bunch of Hype....So, looking to better refine how I apply indicators on the faster time frames-
He offers a free 2 week trial- and why not give it a look? ?
www.leavittbrothers.com/members/register.cfm
"The significance of the MACD zero line. This was a It's one of those "little" short lines that most people skip right over. However, you know that I place great importance on WHERE the MACD in relation to the zero line. Also, no matter the time frame you are playing - the zero line plays into the trade. When the MACD is cascading down from a high place forming bear hooks each time as price moves higher - when the MACD is finally near or at the zero line and turns down WILL be the larger move (in whatever time frame you are trading). BUT - the other side of that, is that price can also Bounce UP a the MACD zero line or in the Bearish case - price can be turned away at the zero line. That one little bit of information really changed how I traded the MACD. MACD inventor Gerald Appel talked about it extensively when he introduced it. Go to the following link and page down to Centerline Crossovers - it will open your eyes about being aware of where the MACD is before taking a trade. - "
school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:moving_average_convergence_divergence_macd
I should add that when I watch you or someone else take a trade using the crossover (or kiss and cross), I can pretty much tell how long the trade will last based on where the MACD is in relation to the zero line. It's one of the things I look at when deciding if something is going to be a quick scalp or something more on a reversal. Since someone is thinking "What are the other things?" The answer is where is the RSI (oversold or overbought), is price forming a bubble from the MA's and if not, is price somewhere in between that point or sitting right on an MA when the trigger occurs. They all play into how the trade will play out. FWIW - Beast, 13:54 05/02/2023
frame this - rat89, 14:58 05/02/2023
Nope, frame the one above where I answered your question. - Beast, 15:24 05/02/2023
Ross Cameron- Listening to his Gut in not jumping Long into SVB last week:
globeecho.com/business/warrior-tradings-ross-cameron-reveals-what-his-gut-said-when-silicon-valley-bank-was-tanking-plus-how-he-traded-svb/?mkt_tok=MzQwLUhDQS0wNTkAAAGLe_3ztn8N51IVv5C-FK4FYZfGyyAuZyjBYzp4IKZPu8Qpn_TJPx_XtxJbKJzwpWiT--LeRm2Y3_jMVOEXa6GLY6PBdjjjOAjAIFaMtOKUkg
This late afternoon trade-in SDS- Several regional banks halted due to volatility- regional banks see additional selling.
SDS trade stopped out- I intentionally let it Ride down to the PSAR stop -
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Post by sd on May 3, 2023 7:43:24 GMT -5
5-3-2023 Futures in the Green- Employment came in relatively strong-
I put on a GDX position yesterday on the upmove- note the weekly chart - Theres not a long way to go to reach the prior highs,
and I think that Gold and the miners can likely find upside with concerns about our financials, debt ceiling, and FED....
Stop $182- will adjust to $181.90 - to stay below the Round number.
FED this pm -2:30
Didn't take any positions at the open -
Red in the sectors
@ 9:59- wENT LONG TZA- Small tracking position- Initial entry prompted by the 3 min Bullish blue bar- well ahead of any indicator confirmations. Initial stop was set at the low of the blue bar, then raised as price moved higher- Stop is now at B.E.
Another chop sideways range day I think- waiting on the FED-
Going to go out and Mow the grass!
EOD- Fed raised +.25 and suggested a potential to pause dependent on the data....
Markets closed in the Red....
The crash continues in the Regional Banks- but even the mega caps are struggling and have gone negative for the year with a few exceptions....
MS, and JPM are net positive on the year- but- the Red line -3% represents the group of large cap mega banks.
BAC ismdown on the year, but trying to recover from it's lows.
Regional banks- Dark blue line - illustrates the damage done so far in small regional community banks- as the SVG bankruptcy made all of America aware - there's safety in other investments yielding a safe 5% return- and -for those affluent investors with over 250k have learned- You are only covered by FDIC insurance up to $250k - and so they've bailed out on keeping their assets in one bank-
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Post by sd on May 4, 2023 6:39:05 GMT -5
5-4-2023
Futures in the RED following a Fed report that was generally in-line with what the more pragmatic pundits anticipated.
GDX position and GLD-
With the markets facing the uncertainty of an unresolved debt ceiling-and the financial crisis facing regional banks- and the potential
for more banks to default and go go into receivership- essentially bankruptcy- and the lack of the politicians to pass legislation to agree that the FDIC can increase it's guarantee for investments to support the Regionals...
This may indeed be the MAY that is the right time to "GO Away" from the thinking that we will achieve that soft landing.
The Dollar:
YEAR TO DATE:
GDX -gOLD MINERS- FOLLOWS THE MOVEMENT IN gld- BUT ESSENTIALLY IS MUCH MORE VOLATILE IN IT'S SWINGS-
Amazing that Powell suggested that the regional banks are in good shape...
Good trading Day! GDX, GLD,SQQQ - all profitable!
Gold and GDX had larger continuation moves as the markets are in decline.
Out of all positions @ 10:35- Noting Ross' advice- the 1st 2 pullbacks to the ema can be potential high probability momentum buys- with stops slightly below- but the 3rd attempt is often the peak
Tried both new trades on higher moves in GDX and GLD- both stop out - a little give back ...still retained a majority of profits...
@ 10:50:18 Noticed that the Gold was softening, SQQQ had peaked and had put in a potential red sell bar- and The selling in SOFI had seen a potential R.O.T.
 -
can we see some short covering to push this higher?
@ 10:58 , have price moving up -stop is raised to $4.64 Risk will be $0.01 .
Buying the bounce in Financials- off this downtrend-
Long SCHW, stop above entry.
Long XLF
Expecting a potentially good upside move as shorts seek to cover, lock in their gains....
11:18 all 3 financials pull back, hit the stops for net gains. (small)
Sold XLV as it dropped today for a net Loss- so much for thinking it was a "safe" position in this market!
Trailing stops aggressively was the right approach so far- this am--- Very quick bounce in the financials that turned back quickly- but this may be a 1st thrust to try to slow the selling and seek a bottom.
Traded better today!
Covered my losses on the week- Took a few late trades with tight stops-
Came back in for lunch- Financials are trying to stabilize here- @ 3:05 I repurchased 100 SCHW, with an initial $0.20 stop- ($-20.00} Price moved above the Round number and beyond- Stop was raised to my entry cost and wqas hit a few moments ago- "Nothing Venture, Nothing Gained"- Out at a big $0.00 neither loss nor gain.
Going back out, will hook up the boat for our 1st day out tomorrow! Winds will have calmed down, and we won't be watching the markets until we return in the pm-
wHILE WATCHING schw, i WAS ALSO WATCHING sofi- AND THE xlk, kre-
Sofi just made a break higher - Not a position- I lok at yesterday's Close that it just climbed over as potentially very bullish
3:28 Back in 100 SCHW- Risk is $9.00 Entry was $47. 09 @ 3:26; Stop put just below the Round number $46.98 - Potentially it may test the earlier $47.30 level .
It's consolidating @ $47.16 - making that higher move- will jump the stop if the bar gets a high Close.
Stop moved to $47.09- Price is up to $47.21
Sold 25 $47.29 on the move to $47.30 I fumbled to add the 25 shares- without a stop to combine with the 50 shares- Got caught in a quick downdraft without a sell order for the 25 shares - so, 50 sold @ $47.19- and I thought I had modified that stop for all 75 shares-
When I went to check the position page, I was holding 25 without a stop-loss.... so I put in an immediate Sell- and it filled at $47.17- got lucky on that.
1 minute later- I saw SCHW was moving back higher- I bought 100 $47.275 @ 15:48:46
I set an initial $0.20 stop and price quickly allowed me to shift the stop up to my entry cost-
I sold 49 shares @ $47.325 simply locked in a small $0.05 gain on that portion- $2.50- Held the remaining 50 shares until 15:58:44 as price managed to push higher into the Close-
Sold those @ $47.41 for a $.135 net gain on 50=
Small penny gains- but I feel that i executed relatively well in accordance with the charts- without carrying the RISK once the price made a higher move-
I also feel I sensed the shift in the market and went to look at the financials...saw similar price recovery, and that prompted me to take those trades.
All of this backslapping caused a sore arm .... But looking at the trades- My biggest winner was a 2 day hold in GDX - I bought right at the Close on Tuesday, held through the sideways price action Wednesday, and was rewarded with today's Price action-
So, trailing the stop this am on the momentum surge-
Absolutely well executed - Kudos for capturing the majority of that move- but potentially, I could have split the stop, allowing a bit of leeway for 50 shares perhaps to come back sideways and make a touch of the fast trend line- assume the stop was $35.75 ., it could have captured a portion of the move higher-
I attempted to do that by buying 50, added 50 as the move went higher- but was quick to protect the entire trade by getting the stop to B.E. - where it was hit and price moved up $0.20 before topping out.
As it turns out, that was the Top made 10:40 am......
-
This morning I tepidly took an entry into SQQQ- I didn't jump in at the Open- I still cannot figure out how to get that almost perfect entry near the Opening low- and then get to Ride that big move....D @ LB seems to have a knack at doing just that-
In the Heat of getting some series of whipsaws and losses earlier in the Week, I made an attempt to be more aggressive today with stops- jumping them up to cover my entry cost as soon as price made a move a bar or 2 higher-
Taking small gains is something that Ross - Warrior Trading- promotes as one develops a day trading strategy- But it likely is a combination of protecting the entry as soon as possible, but then allowing price some leeway -yet still continue to uptrend- for that larger gain.
I think this entry was a prudent choice- Entry was 9:43 50 @ $30.695
This was waiting to see the market direction - I knew the stock would open higher- and perhaps the best Buy would have been to Buy the Open using a limit - a slight gap move up-
That 1st 5 minute bar was a wide ranging bar- coming in as it Closed. the 2nd bar opened up just above the 1st bar Close- and it became a more subdued inside bar-
My entry was as price moved above that bar - but I Sold it just 6 minutes after buying- 9:49:55 for a small $0.08 gain on a raised stop above my entry cost-
Was that a smart decision? Once a trade moves in your direction, If i can protect my entry by raising my stop to B.E. - that's smart trading- IMO. That means, I can potentially have another go- at bat- and then get that base hit- potentially a double- versus striking out ....
Psychologically, once a stop is at the B.E. or small net gain, it's a breath of fresh air because it is not a concern....
 -
GLD trade: Didn't i cover this previously???
Buy 50 @ 9:38 :46 $189.27
Sell 49 @ 9:50 $189.84
Buy 50 @ 10:03:53 $190.10
Sell 50 @ 10:05:20 $189.97
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Post by sd on May 5, 2023 16:59:02 GMT -5
Friday 5-5-2023
Missed out on a bullish up day for a day fishing with the LOLO and afterwards ice cream with the Gkids-
A Great Day to be out on the lake - Barely saw another boat, weather was great!
Here's the sector performances : Energy made a rally of sorts today after being a big loser in the last Month.
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Post by sd on May 6, 2023 9:32:00 GMT -5
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Post by sd on May 8, 2023 10:22:46 GMT -5
5-8-2023
Markets undecided- Flat @ 11 am- I've been trrading GLD,GDX,SOFI,and SCHW-
Caught a nice swing up in SCHW- and sold into it's upmove- My 1st guess at it's bottom on the 3 min chart got stopped out- I reentered as that bar was followed with a higher bullish blue bar- caught 3 green bars to the upside and set my stop just $0.10 below that high price action.
I lost a bit in GDX- made a few pennies in GLD after getting whipsawed earlier-
What may be worth comparing- the GDX weakened well ahead of the GLD -
SOFI- It showed strength when the KRE was trending lower- It had a 10:15 +/- peak, ; a decline of $0.13 and then a rally - I bought in at $5.34 - 300 -shares- playing for pennies/practice- my stop was just %.31 initially, but with it moving a few pennies to the upside- I'm at $5.33- it's trading @ $5.36 - Risk is $3....will try to scalp for a small gain if it gets up to $5.30
Stopped out of all trades for minor BE losses-
Back in to SCHW and KRE with 100 share positions off what I think is a potential bottom @ 12:00. KRE -stop is just above my entry- SCHW just gave me an additional up bar after testing it's lows
I Just raised stops to B.E on both SCHW, KRE- and both triggered-
SCHW out at exact B.E.
@ 12:27- SOFI trade is in profitable territory- such a very slow mover here- My stop is just $0.02 below the ASK as it climbs incrementally up a penny or 2 at a time...
Went back into SCHW Long as it dropped a leg lower- I'm in $48.08 with a 100 share position with a stop $47.98 - Risking $10 on the expectation it should hold the $48.00 round number- perhaps that's just my superstition around round numbers- but they are certainly worth watching as a temporary support level. The KRE had also made a similar base- and had seen a slight bounce- above today's lows. just made a bit of a drop out of the $37.80 level- Low for the day $37.65....so, If SCHW cannot also make a step higher in the next 30 minutes, ....hmmm indicators are pending- CCI out of oversold on the drop- RSI flat lining but above the 30 level....MACD hovering on the o.o line. Stochastic had made a hook to the upside while oversold, but has not made that 30 cross.
There she goes-LOWER- The regionals and SCHW- mimic each other.....
Had SPEC TRADING fun this am - but trying for some of those very spec moves has seen my gains slip into negative territory- Down -$1.08 @ 1 pm with no active trades on presently-
Tech making a potential pm recovery? oN THE 5 MIN CHART, tqqq MADE THAT macd SIGNAL CROSS @ 10:45 AS THAT GREEN BAR CLOSED ABOVE THE DOWNTRENDING EMAS...
@ the EOD, I went back trying get some late pm gains- but got whipsawed pretty good on SCHW - down -$39 on the day-risking larger position size at the EOD ....
This is because I took on a higher size Risk- Holding 200 shares of SCHW at the pm lows expecting that the market was sanbagging a bit, and we would see an upsurge in buying as we swung towards the Close-I also got whipsawed as I had moved away from Schwab and it had made a big green bar- that caught me unawares- and I jumped in there with a 100 share position buy thinking this was the move- It was just a whipsaw as the smart money sold me shares @ $47.90 that stopped out $47.77-
The Fast Money group - with Nathan, Adami, as continuing to warn that we are at a very rarified level- based on valuations, earnings, and what is likely in the future-
Adami admitted he's been bearish for almost all of this market run higher- but still is holding his ground that this rally should be an opportunity to take profits, and get defensive- LIZ Young- Mike Wilson- are also reiterating their bearish outlooks.
Today was an interesting day, as i traded several inexpensive stocks today- SOFI and ARRR- a reit that moved in small $0.01 increments- Perhaps that is like trading in slow motion-
I tested setting my stops incrementally higher with each up move- ARR is a stock that D @ LB trades-Like many Reits, it's been in a serious downtrend since 2022-
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Post by sd on May 9, 2023 8:32:39 GMT -5
5-9-2023
markets open in the red
Get-together at the WH today to discuss the Debt ceiling/extension - Politicians playing with Fire...
Small GDX position taken - stopped out 10:14 $35.32.
GLD Peaked @ 10 am.... it has been declining, just had a gap down ....
LONG 100 ea SCHW, KRE- both put in an initial swing down, reversed higher, pulled back and I bought the up move that followed @ 10:47
Schw worked - ended up with $39 in gains in SCHW- but offset by -33 losses in multiple tries at KRE-
Also tried several other trades- all short lived- will try to get a few charts updated-
Left early in the PM to get a smoker grill- and got back and assembled it- While we grill a lot with charcoal, we haven't tried smoking with charcoal -
So looked at both HD and Lowes- and they've got some pricey smokers - so we settled on an inexpensive "Expert " Charcoal grill with a side smoker box attached to see if it's something we will do more often .....
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Post by sd on May 10, 2023 8:21:55 GMT -5
5-10-2023 Futures again in the RED, waiting on the April CPI report this am- Expectations are that it may be higher.....
The Debt ceiling meeting yesterday didn't have any progress-Each side blaming the other for not being willing to negotiate.
June 1 is the Treasury date set where payments go out ....and if the Debt ceiling is not passed...
The interest we are now paying on our present debt is $Billions and increasing- The US Gov't is similar to a Credit Card Holder- with the debt presently 2x larger than our entire annual GDP- The Credit card holder that gets trapped in a vicious cycle of paying more in rate charges than they earn, so always paying the minimum and also charging more....
Futures like the CPI- indicating that the overall inflation is still under control - came in on the lower side- in some categories- Shelter inflation - coming down gradually- Fed's approach is working- slowly gradually coming down- Of course Energy prices are way down...
The Schwab trades yesterday -reviewing.
aS CAN BE SEEN- THE 1ST ENTRY WAS very late as I was not initially watching SCHW for an entry I sold as Price was retracing and was out at Break even.
Price pulled back to the fast ema, I was a bit slow to enter-, held through the consolidation back to the fast ema- sold 1/2 on a lock--in some profits- trailed a tight stop as price moved higher- captured a good % of the upmove as it then reversed and triggered my stop-
The 2nd add
Market opened- I attempted a few trades that saw each one get whipsawed directionally- Presently down -$78.00 -across 3 positions I took.
SCHW, KRE, SQQQ
Viewed SCHW as another entry on the 5 Min bar- MACD histogram upside cross-took the entry instead of waiting for a buy-stop fill- So, too anxious, pushing the trades- setting a wider stop below this range- but will step aside for the day if this cannot breakout-
Down -$100.00 @ 10:38 am
Presently, Tech sector is holding some gains-
sector :
Stopped out- Down -$106 on the day- and it's just mid morning- Time to step away and take a walk in the lower 40...
Went back in this afternoon and reduced my losses back down to -$80.00 Had an excellent trade in TQQQ,- made up $44.00 on that- but similarly took trades in TNA - hoping for a surge higher at the Close- but stopped out of both on similar momentum selling in each- somebody blew the retreat trumpet.....
@ LB's site- I typically read through it at the EOD- One member @ LB's - "Devoid" announced he is putting daytrading aside as it consumes too much of his personal time now that he is recently retired- Very sorry to see him take his leave, as he has been willing to demonstrate and explain his basic approach- Which is what I am trying to emulate....Something to strive for....
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