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Post by sd on Dec 31, 2022 17:01:37 GMT -5
THIS STARTS MY 2023 THREAD- " DON'T JUST SIT THERE TO SURVIVE- MOVE&PROSPER! as my MOTTO & goal for this year. iF You are taking the time to stop by here, welcome- I do this to stay engaged with the market, to make a record of sorts, and to try to pass on some ideas -now and then- that may benefit others as well. If You have any comments, suggestions, feel free to send me an e-mail @ KSOWTER101@GMAIL.COM - or feel free to join in - Quiet around here!
My goal this year, will be to again outperform the indexes but with much better net gains in my trading approach, and better results in the investment approach- I've recently taken back funds from so called professional managers due to the significant loss of -20% + by those managers and their inability to shift due to the changing market environment- Their go-to approach of the 60/40 stocks/bonds failed to perform this year as it historically has done better in most pullbacks with the bond funds becoming the "safe" position- mitigating the losses of the stocks- Failed to work as anticipated this year- and only by active management- reducing exposure to Tech, going long into the Energy sector, and shorting the overpriced tech sector would those managed funds have been able to outperform- but, they are somewhat locked into their models as they 'Know" that with a 5 year horizon, monies will likely come back. That's fine if you have a long enough horizon and can continue to work and be putting contributions into the markets- I'm now 2 years retired- Quit work at age 70- and had postponed taking retirement until age 68 + . Been dabbling in trading and investing since the late 1990's - mostly as a hobbyist- but, as retirement was catching up, got really interested in how our IRA funds were being invested through high cost mutual funds- Bypassed the damage done in the great recession by shifting out IRA funds into money market funds in late 2007- but wasn't smart enough to jump back in in early 2009- I think it was several years before i put those funds back into the markets- missed the big rally and opp to be a buyer at the lows. Going back to the Tech bubble of the late 90's - 2,000- I first started trading- and made a big gain in a short period of time- Thought I was ready to quit the day job for a while! LOL! I didn't know that what went up could go down 3x as fast- Didn't know that there was a Bear in the market as well as a bull- Bull was out to pasture, Bear ruled- Lost all my gains and a chunk of what I had started with. about that time, the employer opened an IRA account for us employees, and I started investing- a small % in the starting years- Wish I had started earlier and contributed more! As I mentioned in Closing the 2022 thread- It's best to have a strategy of building a solid investment approach, including a Roth- and keep it going through thick and thin- and recesions btw... and only trade with a initially small account- Don't fall for the MEME and Crypto crap that lured so many in- That was a dance of musical chairs- and many retail traders lost a very large % of what they hoped would be their nest egg for future wealth- Along these lines, be sure to invest enough to get the employer's match, then try to fully fund your ROTH up to the max if possible- and then also contribute to an HSA account- Healthcare account- which can also be invested once you exceed the 2k minimum- or whatever the requirement may become. Free money- protected from the Gov't getting it's hands on it- and compounding- over years and decades- is the most powerful element- Einstein reportedly said -Compounding is the 8th wonder of the World.... While it seems to start off small, it gradually accumulates much more rapidly
You are certainly welcome to join in here - or send that e-mail- Lots of visitors, and perhaps lots of Bots ---I'm the last of the original group due to health or interest, and this keeps me engaged. At least until it warms up and I can get back fishing a bit or play in the garden... (garden will post in the Photos forum) Time to do an updated post with the specifics of where we ended 2022, and are starting 2023- Then , I will follow up with a number of blank "Placeholder" messages that I will use to post into at a later date what I may think is useful- Links etc.
BTW- Sorry if I'm repetitive- Comes with the territory- I postponed taking SS for a few years to get that extra +8% per year add in- I realized that I should take the SS payments, and invest them , as the COLA adjustment recipients received made the net fixed 8% gain I would receive did not get the Cola increase- I continued working until DEC 2020- and Covid was prevalent on the jobsite- I was age 70- had planned to officially retire in Jan 2021- But the threat of catching Covid and bringing it home to LOLO made me quit 2 weeks early- A week later, everyone else in our staff on that jobsite came down with the Covid- .... Yes, it reinforces the idea that sometimes one can "TIME" effectively. During 2022, I managed to substantially out perform the indexes, by "losing much less " and actually had net small gains on the year-at least going into December. In the last month, I moved assets around and changed everything into accounts solely in TD Ameritrade- It's worth noting that at times I have jumped into cash, and presently - hold a large % in cash in both the TD iRA and TD Roth- The IRA will be for longer term investments- the Roth for more aggressive market exposures with some individual stocks and ETFs.
Since my outlook for 2023 is biased to the re being much more potential for downside than upside, I'm inclined to allocate a fair % of the IRA funds into less Risky/Value /Dividend investments- and potentially in fixed income - may look at some 4% treasury bonds-
In the Roth, I'm presently holding some energy, and steel funds- -In the IRA, holding some dividend/value funds- but have a large relative % in cash....
EOD- MY EXISTING ENERGY POSITIONS DRAGGED ME DOWN FROM THE GET-GO, FOLLOWED BY THE MARKET REVERSING TO THE DOWNSIDE-
The combined TD IRA closes out 2022 @ $197,764.03 The TD Roth including the rollover from IB today is presently $78,505.71
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Post by sd on Dec 31, 2022 17:20:53 GMT -5
2022- A LOOK BACK - tOUGH YEAR FOR MOST OF US- and for those with managed investments- The FED turned to fight inflation early in the year and told us that they had underestimated the persistance of the inflation as just "Transitory" and they were clearly wrong- The only tool they have is to raise rates to slow the economy, and eventually to slow the demand for employees hiring and capturing increased wages- which fuels the inflation cycle- If they can just get a few Million people out of work, see demand for workers come to an end as employers see their business demand and margins declining, then the consumers will go on lockdown and retreat, and demand for goods and services will dwindle, and the inflation monster will be once again tamed- A decade + of Fed propping up the markets and excess monetary supply flooded into the economy due to covid and reckless extravagent spending- all contributed to our present situation- While the demand for workers is still relatively strong, Tech is cutting back and the Tech/Growth sector is still largely over valued as the future lower earnings have not been priced in- The Fed is expected to continue with lesser rate hikes in the future than the 75 pt hikes it initially started with- but the target rate is above 5%-
Home mortgages are at all time highs, and the housing market is no longer finding new buyers that can afford the much higher rates- Crypto has finally crashed as the Sam Bankman Fried FTX scheme came crashing down- but it hasn't gone away- Almost all of the SPACs that came public have fizzled- except for a very few, and that was part of the Mania in 2021, carryover into 2022. The decline this year has seen a couple of Bear market rallies- and those were opportunities to sell into . Santa rally never arrived, and most are now fearful the S&P will break the $3,800 level- and we will see markets make lower lows- down to $3,200 is projected by some. S&P earnings are still 17 x forward- and the reality is that forward earnings likely won't be where the market projects- but much lower- so getting back to a more normal 15 or 14 x is not out of consideration.
Here's the S&P 11 sector performance Graph (from Finviz.com- Groups finviz.com/groups.ashx) This is a simple,but effective graph , that can suggest you consider staying with the better performing sectors- Energy also had a big run up in 2021- and i'm long with the XLE and some individual names as an investment theme.
......................................................................................................................................................................................................... tHE INDEXES: The DOW industrials held up the best in 2022, followed by the S&P, and the Large Cap Nasdaq- QQQ got brutalized-
DOW Jones - DIA Lost -20% at the Sept Low, but has made a rally to Close down just - 7.2% !
The S&P 500 - SPY chart - it Lost -18.4% in 2022, with a low of -26%
The Nasdaq: QQQ PRESENTLY DOWN -32.7% ! At it's low -36%
AS i TYPICALLY DO , I will take an average of the 3 indexes -58.3/3 = -19.43 Loss for 2022
I will take my combined assets in the TD IRA & ROTH
The combined TD IRA closes out 2022 @ $197,764.03 The TD Roth including the rollover from IB today is presently $78,505.71 - BUT - $77,505.71 will be my start value--when I withdraw 1K. However, I plan to withdraw $1,000.00 from the Roth account- I will use the funds to purchase Jason Leavitt's Masterclass (599.00) and also added another 1 year membership to stockcharts taking advantage of the Christmas Sale- getting 3 months free....
The TD IRA will not attempt to outperform per se- It will have a good portion in conservative funds- perhaps even a large % in fixed income -looking for a potential guaranteed 3-4% return- Ideally it will be somewhat diversified- and presently has a large % in cash although I just recently added some new positions. The TD ROTH will contain both some swing trade positions and some day trades- I indeed managed to outperform the indexes in 2022 , but unfortunately my professionally managed funds lost $50k- and so, I've taken management of those assets and they are reflected in the TD account values. Managing a larger amount of assets will be my challenge as we move into 2023. I've given up on trusting the "pro's" . I'll reflect more on that some time later this year...I did make note of it in the late 2022 thread posts.
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Post by sd on Dec 31, 2022 18:30:24 GMT -5
Copying some of the potential category lists Indexes (US & World)
Dow Jones
$INDU Dow 30 Industrials $DJA Dow Composite
S&P
$OEX S&P 100 Large Caps $MID S&P 400 Mid Caps $SPX S&P 500 Large Caps $SML S&P 600 Small Caps
NASDAQ
$COMPQ NASDAQ Composite $NDX NASDAQ 100 Large Caps
Russell
$RUI Russell 1000 Large Caps $RUT Russell 2000 Small Caps $RUA Russell 3000
NYSE
$NYA NYSE
Other
$XAX AMEX Composite $WLSH Wilshre 5000 Composite World
$DJW Dow World
Americas
$MERV Argentina $BVSP Brazil $TSX Canada $CLDOW Chile $MXDOW Mexico (Dow version)
Europe, Afric, Middle East
$EUR Euro Top 100 $ATX Austria $BEDOW Belgium (Dow version) $KFX Denmark $GBDOW London Financial Times (Dow version) $FIDOW Finland (Dow version) $DAX Germany $ATG Greece $ITDOW Italy (Dow version) $AEX Netherlands $NODOW Norway (Dow version) $PSI Portugal $SEDOW Sweden (Dow version) $SMSI Spain $CHDOW Switzerland (Dow version)
Asia/Pacific
$AORD Australia $CZH China $SSEC China $HSI Hong Kong $BSE India (Bombay) $IDDOW Indonesia (Dow version) $NIKK Japan (Tokyo) $MYDOW Malaysia (Dow version) $NZDOW New Zealand (Dow version) $STI Singapore $KOSPI South Korea (Seoul)
Index ETFs (US & World)
Dow Jones
DIA Dow long DOG Dow short DDM Dow 2x long DXD Dow 2x short UDOW Dow 3x long SDOW Dow 3x short
NASDAQ
ONEQ Nasdaq QQQ Nasdaq 100 long PSQ Nasdaq 100 short QLD Nasdaq 100 2x long QID Nasdaq 100 2x short TQQQ Nasdaq 100 3x long SQQQ Nasdaq 100 3x short
S&P
OEF S&P 100 SPMD S&P mid caps IJH S&P 400 MDY S&P 400 MVV S&P 400 2x long MZZ S&P 400 2x short UMDD S&P 400 3x long SMDD S&P 400 3x short MIDU S&P 400 3x long MIDZ S&P 400 3x short IJK S&P 400 growth MYY S&P 400 short IJJ S&P 400 value IVV S&P 500 SPY S&P 500 SH S&P 500 short SPUU S&P 500 2x long SPDN S&P 500 short SSO S&P 500 2x long SDS S&P 500 2x short UPRO S&P 500 3x long SPXU S&P 500 3x short SPXL S&P 500 3x long SPXS S&P 500 3x short IVE S&P 500 value SPYV S&P 500 value IVW S&P 500 growth SPYG S&P 500 growth SPHB S&P 500 High Beta SPLV S&P 500 Low Volatility SPYD S&P 500 High Dividend IJR S&P 600 SDD S&P 600 2x short IJT S&P 600 growth IJS S&P 600 value
Russell
SPLG Russell 1000 IWB Russell 1000 IWF Russell 1000 growth SFK Russell 1000 growth 2x short IWD Russell 1000 value SJF Russell 1000 value 2x short IWM Russell 2000 SPSM Russell 2000 RWM Russell 2000 short UWM Russell 2000 2x long TWM Russell 2000 2x short URTY Russell 2000 3x long SRTY Russell 2000 3x short IWO Russell 2000 growth SKK Russell 2000 growth 2x short IWN Russell 2000 value SJH Russell 2000 value 2x short SPTM Russell 3000 IWV Russell 3000 IWZ Russell 3000 growth IWW Russell 3000 value IWC Russell Microcap IWR Russell Mid Cap IWP Russell Mid Cap growth SDK Russell Mid Cap growth 2x short IWS Russell Mid Cap value SJL Russell Mid Cap value 2x short
Other
VV Vanguard Large Cap PWB Large Cap, dynamic VO Vanguard Mid Cap VOE Vanguard Mid Cap value PWJ Mid Cap, dynamic VB Vanguard Small Cap VBK Vanguard Small Cap growth VBR Vanguard Small Cap value TNA Small Cap 3x long TZA Small Cap 3x short DVY Dow Dividend SDY S&P Dividend VUG Vanguard Growth VTV Vanguard Value RSP S&P Equal Weight VTI Vanguard Total Market VIG Vanguard Dividend GTAA Global Tactical PFF Preferred Stock PGX Preferred Portfolio PGF Preferred Stock, financials PIM Intermediate Income World
ARGT Argentina EWA Australia EWO Austria EWK Belgium EWZ Brazil BRZU Brazil 3x long EWC Canada ECH Chile PGJ China FXI China GXC China CHN China CHIQ China Consumer CHIE China Energy CHIM China Materials FXP China 25 2x short CHAU China A Share 2x long CHAD China A Share short CWEB China Internet 2x long HAO China small cap YINN China 3x long YANG China 3x short GXG Colombia EGPT Egypt EURL European Financials 2x long EWQ France EWG Germany GREK Greece EWH Hong Kong INDA India INDY India 50 IFN India PIN India INDL India 3x long EPI India, earnings SCIF India Small Cap IDX Indonesia EIDO Indonesia EIRL Ireland EIS Israel EWI Italy EWJ Japan EWV Japan 2x short JOF Japan Small Cap EWM Malaysia EWW Mexico MEXX Mexico 3x long EWN Netherlands NGE Nigeria NORW Norway ENZL New Zealand EPHE Philippines EPU Peru PLND Poland PGAL Portugal QAT Qatar RSX Russia ERUS Russia RUSL Russia 3x long RUSS Russia 3x short KSA Saudi Arabia EWS Singapore EZA South Africa EWY South Korea KORU South Korea 3x long EWP Spain EWD Sweden EWL Switzerland EWT Taiwan THD Thailand TUR Turkey UAE UAE EWU United Kingdom VNM Vietnam
Other
AAXJ Asia ex Japan EEB BRIC BIK BRIC 40 DZK Developed Markets 3x long DPK Developed Markets 3x short VWO Emerging Markets EEM Emerging Markets SPEM S&P Emerging Markets EEV Emerging Markets 2x short EDC Emerging Markets 3x long EDZ Emerging Markets 3x short ADRE Emerging Markets 50 ADR EUM Emerging Markets short VGK Europe EURL Europe 3X long EUXL Europe 3x long HEDJ Europe, Hedged IEV Europe 350 VEA Europe Pacific FEZ Euro STOXX 50 VEU All World ex-US PID International Dividend Achievers GWX Internaitional Small Caps ILF Latin American 40 LBJ Latin American 3x long EFA MSCI EAFE EFG MSCI Growth EFV MSCI Value VPL Pacific EPP Pacific ex-Japan IOO S&P Global 100 SPDW S&P World, ex-US
Sectors
$DJUSAS Aerospace $DJUSAE Aerospace & Defense $DJUSAR Airlines $POW Alternative Energy $DJUSAL Aluminum $DJUSAG Asset Managers $DJUSAP Automobiles & Auto Parts $DJUSAT Auto Parts $DJUSAU Automobiles $DJUSBK Banks $DJUSBM Basic Materials $DJUSBS Basic Resources $DJUSBV Beverages $DJUSBT Biotechnology $DJUSDB Brewers $DJUSBC Broadcasting & Entertainment $DJUSBD Building Materials & Fixtures $DJUSIV Business Support Services $DJUSBE Business Training & Employment $DJUSCH Chemicals $DJUSCC Chemicals, Commodity $DJUSCX Chemicals, Specialty $DJUSCF Clothing & Accessories $DJUSCL Coal $DJUSHR Commercial Vehicles & Trucks $CRB Commodities $DJUSCR Computer Hardware $DJUSDV Computer Services $DJUSCN Construction & Materials $DJUSCE Consumer Electronics $DJUSSF Consumer Finance $DJUSNC Consumer Goods $DJUSCY Consumer Services $DJUSCP Containers & Packaging $DJUSVE Conventional Electricity $DJUSDN Defense $DJUSAF Delivery Services $DJUSVN Distillers & Vintners $DJUSID Diversified Industrials $DJUSEC Electric Components & Equipment $DJUSAI Electronic Equipment $DJUSEE Electronic & Electrical Equipment $DJUSOE Electronic Office Equipment $DJUSOS Exploration & Production $DJUSFN Financials $DJUSFA Financial Administration $DJUSSP Finance, Specialty $DJUSFI Financial Services $DJUSFV Financial Services Composite $DJUSFC Fixed Line Communications $DJUSFB Food & Beverage $DJUSFO Food Producers $DJUSFP Food Products $DJUSFD Food Retailers & Wholesalers $DJUSFT Footwear $DJUSFH Furnishings $DJUSCA Gambling $DJUSGF General Financial $DJUSPM Gold Mining $DJUSHC Health Care $DJUSMC Health Care Equipment & Services $DJUSHP Health Care Providers $DJUSHV Heavy Construction $DJUSHB Home Construction $DJUSHI Home Improvement Retailers $DJUSLG Hotels $DJUSHG Household Goods $DJUSHD Household Products, Durable $DJUSHN Household Products, Non-Durable $DJUSIQ Industrial Engineering $DJUSIG Industrial Goods & Services $DJUSFE Industrial Machinery $DJUSIM Industrial Metals $DJUSDS Industrial Suppliers $DJUSIT Industrial Transportation $DJUSIN Industrials $DJUSGI Industrials, General $DJUSIB Insurance Brokers $DJUSIR Insurance $DJUSIF Insurance, Full Line
$DJUSIL Insurance, Life $DJUSIX Insurance, Nonlife $DJUSIP Insurance, Property/Casualty $DJUSIU Reinsurance $DJUSNS Internet $DJUSSB Investment Services $DJUSMT Marine Transportation $DJUSME Media $DJUSAV Media Agencies $DJUSAM Medical Equipment $DJUSMS Medical Supplies $DJUSMG Mining $DJUSWC Mobile Communications $DJUSMF Mortgage Finance $DJUSNF Nonferrous Metals $DJUSEN Oil & Gas $DJUSOL Oil & Gas, Integrated $DJUSOG Oil & Gas Producers $DJUSOI Oil Equipment & Services $DJUSOQ Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution $DJUSPP Paper $DJUSFR Forestry & Paper $DJUSPG Personal Goods $DJUSCM Personal Products $DJUSNG Personal & Household Goods $DJUSPR Pharmaceuticals $DJUSPN Pharmaceutical & Biotech $DJUSPL Pipelines $DJUSPT Platinum & Precious Metals $DJUSPB Publishing Index $DJUSRR Railroad $DJUSRE Real Estate $DJUSEH Real Estate Holding & Development $DJUSRH Real Estate Holding & Development $DJUSES Real Estate Services $DJUSRP Recreational Products $DJUSRQ Recreational Services $DJUSRI REITs $DJUSHL REIT - Hotels & Lodging $DJUSDT REIT - Diversified $DJUSIO REIT - Industrial & Office $DJUSMR REIT - Mortgage $DJUSRN REIT - Residential $DJUSRL REIT - Retail $DJUSSR REIT - Specialty $DWCREE Renewable Energy Equipment $DJUSRU Restaurants & Bars $DJUSRT Retail $DJUSRA Retailers, Apparel $DJUSRB Retailers, Broadline $DJUSRD Retailers, Drug $DJUSDR Retailers, Food & Drug $DJUSGT Retailers, General $DJUSRS Retailers, Specialty $DJUSSC Semiconductors $DJUSSD Soft Drinks $DJUSSW Software $DJUSSV Software & Computer Services $DJUSCS Specialized Consumer Services $DJUSST Steel $DJUSIS Support Services $DJUSTC Technology $DJUSCT Telecom Equipment $DJUSTQ Technology Hardware & Equipment $DJUSTL Telecom $DJUSTR Tires $DJUSTB Tobacco $DJUSTY Toys $DJUSTS Transportation Services $DJUSCG Travel & Leisure $DJUSTT Travel & Tourism $DJUSLE Leisure Goods $DJUSTK Trucking $DJUSUT Utilities $DJUSMU Multiutilities $DJUSEU Utilities, Electric $DJUSGU Utilities, Gas $DJUSUO Gas, Water & Multiutilities $DJUSPC Waste & Disposal Services $DJUSPC Waste & Disposal Services
Sector ETFs
PRNT 3D Printing PPA Aerospace & Defense XAR Aerospace & Defense DFEN Defense 3x long MOO Agribusiness DBA Agriculture JJA Agriculture DAG Agriculture 2x long AGA Agriculture 2x short GEX Alternative Energy, Global ARKQ ARK - Autonomous Tech Robotics KBE Banks KRE Banks, Regional RKH Banks, Regional IAT Banks, Regional DPST Banks, Regional 3X long WDRW Banks, Regional 3x short XBI Biotech IBB Biotech BBH Biotech BIB Nasdaq Biotech 2x long BIS Nasdaq Biotech 2x short LABU S&P Biotech 3x long LABD S&P Biotech 3x short BDH Broadband BDCL Business Development 2x long KCE Capital Markets HMLSF Cannabis MJ Cannabis BJK Casinos PBW Clean Energy SKYY Cloud Computing TAWK Communication Services 3x long MUTE Communication Services 3x short IYC Consumer Services XLY Consumer Discretionary WANT Consumer Discretionary 3x long PASS Consumer Discretionary 3x short SZK Consumer Goods 2x short SCC Consumer Services 2x short XLP Consumer Staples GBTC Crypto - Bitcoin ETHE Crypto - Ethereum HACK Cyber Security IAI Broker Dealers VFH Financials XLF Financials IYF Financials UYG Financials 2x long SKF Financials 2x short FAS Financials 3x long FAZ Financials 3x short IYG Financial Services ARKF ARK - Fintech PBJ Food & Beverage ARKG ARK - Genomics XLV Healthcare RXD Healthcare 2x short CURE Healthcare 3x long IHF Healthcare Providers XHS Healthcare Services XHE Healthcare Equipment XHB Home Builders ITB Home Builders NAIL Home Builders & Supplies 3x long
HIBL High Beta 3x long HIBS High Beta 3x short XLI Industrials DUSL Industrials 3x long SIJ Industrials 2x short VGT Information Technology IXN Information Technology, global ARKK ARK - Innovation KIE Insurance FDN Internet WEBS Internet 3x long WEBL Internet 3x short IZRL Israel Innovation Tech PBS Media IGN Networking ARKW ARK - Next Generation Internet IHE Pharmaceuticals PPH Pharmaceuticals PILL Pharmaceuticals 3x long RWX Real Estate IYR Real Estate XLRE Real Estate URE Real Estate 2x long SRS Real Estate 2x short DRN Real Estate 3x long DRV Real Estate 3x short ICF Realty VNQ REIT RWR REIT XRT Retail RTH Retail RETL Retail 3x long SMH Semiconductors XSD Semiconductors USD Semiconductors 2x long SSG Semiconductors 2x short SOXL Semiconductors 3x long SOXS Semiconductors 3x short SEA Shipping SOCL Social Media IGV Software XSW Software TAN Solar Energy ARKX ARK - Space IYW Technology XLK Technology IGM Technology ROM Technology 2x long REW Technology 2x short TECL Technology 3x long TECS Technology 3x short UBOT Robotics, AI & Automation 3x long TTH Telecom IYZ Telecom IYT Transports XTN Transports TPOR Transports 3x long UTH Utilities XLU Utilities UTSL Utilities 3x long JXI Utilities, global SDP Utilities 2x short FAN Wind Energy
Commodities
$GKX Agriculture $COFFEE Coffee $BCOMKC Coffee (Bloomberg) $COCOA Cocoa $BCOMCC Cocoa (Bloomberg) $COPPER Copper $CORN Corn $BCOMCN Corn (Bloomberg) $COTTON Cotton $BCOMCT Cotton (Bloomberg) $BCOMLH Lean Hogs $BCOMLC Live Cattle $GVX Livestock $LUMBER Lumber $SOYB Soybeans $BCOMSY Soybeans (Bloomberg) $SUGAR Sugar $BCOMSB Sugar (Bloomberg) $WHEAT Wheat $BCOMWH Wheat (Bloomberg)
$GOLD Gold $GYX Industrial Metals $PALL Palladium $PLAT Platinum $GPX Precious Metals $SILVER Silver $BRENT Crude Oil (Brent) $WTIC Crude Oil (West Texas) $GJX Energy $HOIL Heating Oil (West Texas) $NATGAS Natural Gas $GASO Unleaded Gas
Commodity ETFs
RJA Agriculture DBA Agriculture JJU Aluminum IYM Basic Materials UYM Basic Materials 2x long SMN Basic Materials 2x short BDD Base Metals 2x long GRN Carbon PBD Clean Energy, global KOL Coal NIB Cocoa JJOFF Coffee RJI Commodities DBC Commodities GSG Commodities DJP Commodities, total return UCD Commodities 2x long CMD Commodities 2x short COPX Copper JJC Copper CORN Corn BAL Cotton DBE Energy XLE Energy IYE Energy PGH Energy PXI Energy PVX Energy VDE Energy IXC Energy, global ERX Energy 3x long ERY Energy 3x short PSCE S&P small cap energy GLD Gold IAU Gold GLDX Gold Explorers NUGT Gold Miners 3x long DUST Gold Miners 3x short GDX Gold Miners UGL Gold 2x long GLL Gold 2x short DGP Gold 2x long DZZ Gold 2x short UGLDF Gold 3x long (ETN) GDXJ Gold Juniors JNUG Gold Junior Miners 3x long JDST Gold Junior Miners 3x short JJG Grains UHN US Heating Oil COW Liverstock CUT Lumber
XLB Materials MXI Materials, global DBB Metals XME Metals & Mining UNG US Natural Gas FCG Natural Gas IGE Natural Resources BOIL Natural Gas 2x long KOLD Natural Gas 2x short UGAZ Natural Gas 3x long (ETN) DGAZ Natural Gas 3x short (ETN) GASL Natural Gas Related 3x long GASX Natural Gas Related 3x short JJN Nickel UGA US Gasoline USO US Oil OIL Oil DIG Oil & Gas 2x long DUG Oil & Gas 2x short IEZ Oil Equipment & Services XOP Oil & Gas Exploration & Production IEO Oil & Gas Exploration & Production GUSH Oil E&P 3x long DRIP Oil E&P 3x short DTO Oil 2x short UCO Oil 2x long SCO Oil 2x short OIH Oil Services PHYS Physical Gold PALL Physical Palladium PPLT Physical Platinum PTM Platinum DBP Precious Metals GLTR Precious Metals REMX Rare Earth/Strategic Metals SLV Silver DBS Silver SIVR Silver PSLV Physical Silver AGQ Silver 2x long ZSL Silver 2x short USLVF Silver 3x long SOYB Soybean SLX Steel SGGFF Sugar URA Uranium NLR Uranium+Nuclear Energy CGW Water, Global PHO Water Resources WEAT Wheat
Currencies
$XAD Austrlian Dollar $XBP British Pound $CDW Canadian Dollar $XEU Euro $XJY Japanese Yen $XSF Swiss Franc $USD US Dollar
Currency ETFs
FXA Australian Dollar BZF Brazilian Real FXB British Pound Sterling FXC Canadian Dollar CYB Chinese Yuan CEW Emerging Currency FXE Euro ULE Euro 2x long EUO Euro 2x short INR Indian Rupee
FXY Japanese Yen YCL Japanese Yen 2x long YCS Japanese Yen 2x short FXSG Singapore Dollar FXS Swedish Krona FXF Swiss Franc UUP US Dollar long UDN US Dollar short UUPT US Dollar Futures 3x long
Fixed Income
$IRX 3-Month T-Bill Discount Rate $FVX 5-Year Treasury Note Yield $TNX 10-Year Treasury Note Yield $USB 30-Year Treasury Bond Price $TYX 30-Year T-Bond Yield
Fixed Income ETFs
BSV Short Term Bond SHY 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Fund IEI 3-7 Year Treasury Bond Fund IEF 7-10 Year Treasury Bond TYD 7-10 Year Treasury Bond 3x long TYO 7-10 Year Treasury Bond 3x short TLH 10-20 Treasury Bond TMF 20 Year Treasury Bond 3x long TMV 20 Year Treasury Bond 3x short TLT 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund TYBS 20+ Year Treasury Bear TBT 20+ Year Treasury Bond 2x short LBND 25+ Year Treasury Bond 3x long SBND 25+ Year Treasury Bond 3x short ZROZ PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon TMV 20 Year Treasury Bond 3x short AGG Aggregate Bond Fund SPAB Aggregate Bond Fund SPIB Intermediate Term Corporate Bond TFI Municipal Bond ELD Local Debt, Emerging Markets SPLB Long Term Corporate Bond SPTL Long Term Treasury SPTS Short Term Treasury MUB National Municipal Bond BWX International Treasury Bond LQD Investment Grade Corporate Bond JNK Lehman High Yield Bond HYG High Yield Corporate Bond PHK High Income Fund (PIMCO) PHIYX High Yield Fund (PIMCO) TIP TIPS Bond Fund SAGG Total Bond Market Bear EMB Emerging Markets Bond Fund EMLC Emerging Markets Local Currency SPSB Short Term Corporate Bond BND Total Bond Market
Volatility ETFs
VXX S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures long VIXY VIX Short Term Futures VXZ S&P 500 VIX Medium Term Futures UVXY Ultra VIX Short Term Futures
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Post by sd on Dec 31, 2022 18:53:04 GMT -5
PLACEHOLDER 1 OF 8 Watch this Free mini video- from Jason Leavitt. You can get a lot of good information from this free class that will show you some of the steps he takes to finding the best trades to take-Examples given on how to use Finviz and Barcharts - to search for the best performing sectors, industry groups, and leading stocks ...... I think the # of visitors recorded here are likely bots or some algorithm that multiplies the few visitors that actually stop by- That noted, I'm attending the Jason Leavitt's masterclass - and it's a paid for class- and an extension of his free and short version of the Mini Class- This free mini class is worthwhile - as Jason covers a lot of territory- He also has a member's site with a free trial period- I'd check out this mini free class- I'm attending the paid for 'Masterclass' which goes into a lot further depth .....I think this course will be worth it, but there's a lot of crap being sold ----- Aside from totally wasting $$$ on an Options trading platform last year-, his teaching style is thorough and the subject matter is sequential through a lot of mini videos . There's some insights in the free mini class- and the masterclass goes into greater depth- Watch the free mini class -to see if it rings a bell....
www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBHzXG9Eicw
Jason also offers a Masterclass for a reasonable Fee- that also offers a month's membership to his member's room . The masterclass goes into a lot more detail, allows lifetime access to revisit the materials, and I'm finding it very informative- and worth the value.I'm midway through the video material 1-15-2023
Pay attention to how to use the Finviz and Barchart as screening tools- I'm writing about this 1-8- - I'm somewhat ashamed to admit I had never fully used this aspect of these 2 sites- But by drilling down into the sub categories, you can get to easily compare the charts in the narrower industry groups- and, the fundamental information as well as technical information is there to easily compare as well. We're naturally inclined to gravitate to some names we are familiar with, but by using the tools to select the better names in a group, ideally we can find the group leaders- This Jan 8 edit date- the steel sector has just started moving higher this week- finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&f=ind_steel,sec_basicmaterials Another item pointed out in the Masterclass; BARCHART.COM - STOCKS-TOP TOP 100 - tHEIR BARCHART 100 WEBINAR- www.barchart.com/education/webinars/100/the-top-100-stocks-to-buy THE WEBINAR IS 1 HOUR- TIME WELL SPENT WATCHING IF ONE WANTS TO UNDERSTAND the methods used in the screener. Here's a link to the list of Barchart webinars- www.barchart.com/education/webinars/archived
Using multiple time frame analysis to improve trade entries Some good explanations of MACD, ADX,ATR, RSI, and BB- and understanding momentum. Using the Weekly,as the high time frame, using the daily as the intermediate time frame- and then the Hourly as a short term time frame- www.barchart.com/education/webinars/131/using-multiple-time-frame-analysis-for-better-trading-entries
Stockcharts.com- MY favorite charting site www.youtube.com/stockchartscom Stockcharts- video- setting up some multiple pages -intro www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-jpS7GRwCU
Developing chartlists -Grayson Roze www.youtube.com/watch?v=1qnnFhOMFEc
Carter Worth charting- 4 videos www.worthcharting.com/technique-methodology
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Post by sd on Dec 31, 2022 18:53:28 GMT -5
PLACEHOLDER 2 OF 8
scans- screeners- Barcharts. com; Finviz.com, stockcharts.com
Jason Leavitt- Youtube on using Finviz, Barcharts. Jason Leavitt- Masterclass www.Leavittbrothers.com
From David Keller - stockcharts scans for using relative strength
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Post by sd on Dec 31, 2022 18:53:46 GMT -5
PLACEHOLDER 3 OF 8
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Post by sd on Dec 31, 2022 18:54:05 GMT -5
PLACEHOLDER 4 OF 8
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Post by sd on Dec 31, 2022 18:54:23 GMT -5
PLACEHOLDER 5 OF 8
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Post by sd on Dec 31, 2022 18:54:43 GMT -5
PLACEHOLDER 6 OF 8
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Post by sd on Dec 31, 2022 18:55:02 GMT -5
PLACEHOLDER 7 OF 8
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Post by sd on Dec 31, 2022 18:55:37 GMT -5
PLACEHOLDER 8 OF 8
nOT CERTAIN WHAT i'LL PUT IN THE PRECEDING 7 PLACEHOLDERS-
CHARTS AND INDICATORS - Keep it simple- Less is More- Test the effectiveness of what indicators you use by comparing the price action and the indicator action- indicators generally are lagging, because Price is the #1 indicator- Price has to make a move before the indicator can adjust to it- Indicators are generally considered to be LAGGING the Price Action. Don't use 6 different indicators - again -less is more- Many indicators give you the same information- so Indicator duplication is common.
Presently, I use Bar charts and Not candlesticks- This is because the Barcharts I use are made with the stockcharts -Elder Impulse - settings where the coloring of the bars is based on price and a momentum indicator- that is often very effective- Know the limitations though- A bullish Green bar can be generated- but if in a sideways range- or a downtrend- it may be a whipsaw signal-Never ignore a Red bar- It is often the start of a downtrend /pullback Green bars bullish, Blue bars indecision but often precede a bullish or bearish bar as price has less directional momentum.
Know your Trend- Moving averages are useful in a number of ways- They can identify the trend direction - up, Down- or sideways... It's also useful to compare how Close price moves along the trend line, and also when it may be extended and far above- or below - the trend line- It's common that Price typically will have a pullaway from the trend line, only to revert back to the "Mean" ....
Use Multiple Time frames in your trading decisions- It's almost always best to Trade LONG with the trend - and by viewing across different time frames- -Weekly, Daily, Hourly, etc, one can develop a larger picture view of what price action may be suggesting....Know that the faster the timeframe one views, the more likely the signals can appear to be valid -but can often be easily turned-whipsawed- Aligning the different time frames to coincide better increases the probability that the trade works as you perceive it should.
I have recently been dabbling in Day Trading , and using the 1,2,5 and 15 minute charts. More on this later as a method to also view the actual price movements in a greater detail.
RENKO CHARTS- Renko charts come from the ancient Japanese- The Renko chart is a price "box" given a certain value depending on the time Frame one uses it on- On a daily chart the Renko box may be worth $3.00 , but on a 1 hour time frame may be worth just $0.45 . Renko charts can be set to a Hi-LO- setting- or just to a CLOSE setting- If the Renko box is worth $.45 - and price moves above the high- or below the low of the box by only $0.44 - no new box forms. The Hi-lo setting will allow a box to show even if price exceeds that $.45 level, but closes below it- The CLOSE setting only shows boxes that the price bar Close exceeds the value of the new box parameter. Renko charts are also valuable as they remove a lot of the volatility of price moving intraday. Even on minute charts. school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=chart_analysis:renko
Parabolic PSAR Parabolic PSAR is a volatility based indicator that can be applied as an entry signal, a trailing stop-loss, and also a reentry signal- It should not be blindly followed as a sole indicator- know the trend direction - expect false signals if price moves counter trend. However, PSAR often works in an uncanny way to keep one from entering a trade too early-- Also, by lagging behind 1 psar value, it provides a cushion for price volatility.
MACD school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:moving_average_convergence_divergence_macd
STOCHASTIC - OFTEN SIGNALS VERY EARLY school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:stochastic_oscillator_fast_slow_and_full
ADX - DIRECTIONAL +DI, -DI ADX trend strength line school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:average_directional_index_adx
CCI : cOMMODITY CHANNEL iNDEX school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:commodity_channel_index_cci
RSI -rELATIVE sTRENGTH school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:relative_strength_index_rsi
tHAT'S ENOUGH TO FILL THE CHART PAGE-
HERE'S A SAMPLE CHART OF THE QQQ'S . tHIS is a Weekly chart.
TREND IS EASILY IDENTIFIED BY THE DOWNSLOPE
LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL BOTTOM HAS BEEN MADE - DOUBLE LOWS
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Post by sd on Jan 1, 2023 10:15:27 GMT -5
Renko Charts- LOOKING BACK 20 YEARS-THROUGH DECEMBER 2022- SINCE PRICE HAS NOT EXCEEDED THE $17.60 BOX VALUE ABOVE OR BELOW THE NOV BOX, NO NEW BOX HAS BEEN MADE FOR DECEMBER.
20 YEAR WEEKLY PRICE BARS:
1 YEAR DAILY BARS
1 YEAR RENKO BOX- CLOSE SETTING TOP CHART- BELOW IS THE SAME BUT USES THE HI-LO SETTING
A 60 MINUTE RENKO CHART-1 YEAR CLOSE SETTING
THE 1 YEAR- 60 MINUTE USING THE ELDER IMPULSE BARS
'DRILLING DOWN' BY VIEWING A FASTER TIME FRAME CHART GIVES A PERSPECTIVE ON WHAT OCCURS BETWEEN THE BULLS AND THE BEARS. THIS 15 MINUTE CHART EXAMPLE OF SPY IN DECEMBER FOLLOWS A RALLY HIGHER IN NOVEMBER- A NEW NOVEMBER RALLY HIGH WAS MADE dEC 2-
SAME CHART- THIS IS WHY "VOLUME" IS CONFUSING AS TO INDICATING THE DIRECTION OF A MOVE
dAILY CHART FOR dECEMBER - WITH VOLUME
ok, LET'S SEE
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Post by sd on Jan 2, 2023 11:48:38 GMT -5
1-2-2023
Markets are Closed today in the US, but Open in other economies- Europe is apparently buying some of last year's Growth losers- according to Bloomberg- Global headlines- Finland has to cut Power useage to prevent blackouts due to lack of energy fuels; Inflation may be slowing in Europe-; Mild winter in Europe reducing nat gas demand, Ukraine bomb kills 63 russian troops , Swedish housing sector selling off, -17%, similar to the US sell-off. Israel raises rates to highest level to fight inflation- Brazil markets sink, Argentina political divisions between it's Pres and supreme court, FTX scandal in Crypto continues as Winklevoss twins investor funds are frozen- locked up in their exchange... Micro Strategy sells a portion of their Crypto at a large loss.
Seems Global unrest and economic depression continues- China's economy just coming out of a nationwide Covid lockdown- China economy expected to have contracted last quarter- No wonder since China has failed to keep business production there up to capacity- resulting in AAPL's shifting of some of it's production out of China- Similarly, Tensions between China and Taiwan affecting the semi conductor arenaqa- TSM , INTC GFS expanding chip production in the US- Will take several years to reach production ... Elon MUSK dumped more TSLA shares to Fund the TWTR takeover- Serious questions revolve aroung TSLA's still very hgh 20 x PE for it as q car company- Those that drink the TSLA Kool-Aid see it more as a diverse technology company-
I expect we see a bit of a rally early in Jan, that likely will not last- Some initial funds buying
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Post by sd on Jan 2, 2023 15:49:32 GMT -5
Day trades- I'll be doing a few day trades using the faster time frame charts as we go into 2023- I'm also presently a member at Leavitt Brothers- and each week he has a selection from the daily charts of trades he thinks may have potential- Most of these are trades that appear to have made a bottom, are potentially consolidating- and could move along with the markets...
For day trades, I'll be trying to find a trade moving with the market momentum- and follow it on the fast time frames- The goal there is to develop some experience in making very short term trades- likely not holds overnight- and develop some better coordination skills with price action, PSAR, and seeing if I can capture a net gain - at the end of the day- To accomplish this, I may dabble with some 2x, 3s leveraged ETFS to get the % volatility needed. Essentially starting off with relatively small position size, as part of the training, and - if I develop a level of confidence- I may "size up" accordingly- Let's say a target goal of capturing a 1% gain - or a .5% gain with some size by the number of shares- Every day will start with a clean slate -
It often seems that the markets will Close the day with a solid Close only to see it evaporate the next day......
I'm also going to try to adjust some positions as swing trades- Take a partial entry position, but if the theme is there, plan to hold the position, and aDD on pullbacks- Haven't allowed myself to do much of this in the past- but I think there is potential for the markets to settle out lower in January....
Leavitt brothers offers a free trial- so it's a decent opportunity to check out the site, and to see if one or two of his picks will pay for the subscription- about $100/month- There is also a member's site- with some conversation during the day- Several of them apply short term day trades- which essentially is where I decided to get it a spin......
On Daytrading- and the market Open- I finally realized that the market makers take full advantage of the market open - Ever wonder WHY things gapped down to take out your stop-loss only to reverse higher in the next few minutes- or often by 10 am?? Market makers can see the potential alignment of where the stop-loss orders are- and -if they decide to- can push the market down by limiting liquidity in a particular stock-or index- and thus flush price lower, triggering the stops that are typically at a low of the recent range- and then - they get to purchase those shares at the gap down Low open, and sell them back into the market as price rises back. The only defense against this is to have stops set with a minimum Limit order- or to take the stop-loss off going into the open- Both can be dangerous situations- The stop with a Limit will not trigger and become a market Sell until the price gets back above the Limit- In a falling market- the Limit order is jumped over, and price can fall hard, well below the market open- and continue to go much lower. If you take the stop-loss off to see where the price opens, you have to make that Call whether you think the trade is going even lower- or will it potentially reverse in a few minutes- Those 1st trades can easily be exaggerated from where they open- and the market- MAY- come back to where price had Closed the day prior-
So, the Futures are the accumulated premarket orders- which can often be reversed right at the open- or the orders pulled- Large funds can stack up a series of premarket orders- to give the impression they are potential Buyers- or Sellers of stock XYZ- but cancel those orders right at the open- Market makers are supposed to provide the liquidity needed in the markets- but-as seen in flash crashes, they pull their orders off the markets if it goes against them - or leave only a minimal amount of orders - so they are not left holding the bag....
The first few hours of the day are often the period when the largest moves occur- but the potential is there for the markets to pause, or even reverse course mid day- Using a faster time frame chart to view the intraday price action often gives a better informed view of the turning of the Tide intraday- I also think by studying what happens on the faster time frames is comparable to study a month's activity of the daily charts-
That said, the intraday charts may come with more volatility- and for swing trades or Investments, the Daily chart should be the go-to- with a glance at the longer term setup on the Weekly- Staying Long only when the trend is indicating that to be in play has saved my bacon from just riding the rollercoaster to new lows...
The set up for a Day trade- Depending on the trade direction- - Look at the premarket bid/ask orders - Notice the Spread- and does the ask order align with the index futures direction? Is it way too extended? If the open looks to be up based on the indexes all net positive and in the green- Hit the bid at the open- and trail a stop based on the where the Low of the opening bar was- that could be a 1 minute, a 2 minute- or even the 5 minute- If price rips higher with solid green bars - get the stop up to where a price reversal won't cause much damage- One note about the PSAR - It often starts off -depending on the price open relative to the prior closing price-often way too wide . The assumption of entering soon or With the open is that Price will continue to go in your direction...Should the direction not meet your expectation- bail out- I also use various PSAR settings- One thing i often do is to trail or lag the active psar by 1 psar value- the 0,0.2 is the standard PSAR- a 0,0.5 is fast, and o,o.1 is slower- Eventually psars will get much closer to the price action....particularly if price makes a decline... At some point, momentum stalls, price can base- or revert- and those can be opportunities to take some profits- and consider where one will re enter the trade on a trend continuation. Watching what the indicators are suggesting along with Price is crucial- Watch for divergences in the indicators- they can often fore-tell of a change in the trend versus price alone-
aS AN INVESTMENT, I'm signing up for Jason's Masterclass- Most of what I now do is through years of trial and error and somwe inputs from others that used to be on this DG's forum. Over the years, I've read dozens of trading books- and refined my approach to adapt to markets- but i think I will get some benefit by actually taking his video class- A relatively small investment that can easily be recouped just by making some refinements or adjustments that I may get from the various classes-
His Mini overview of the Masterclass- Give this a listen- see if it piques your interest ... jason-leavitt-masterclass-in-trading.teachable.com/courses/670429/lectures/12300772
"Trading is a performance activity"
Jump to this video clip about positioning yourself on the right side of the market's best performing areas- stocks.
jason-leavitt-masterclass-in-trading.teachable.com/courses/670429/lectures/12301009
By following the industry group strength, you can find outperforming groups- and stocks within that group
jason-leavitt-masterclass-in-trading.teachable.com/courses/670429/lectures/12301013
#1 Preserve Capitol until a good Opportunity is there- #2 Size up- add to your winners
ONLY Trade in SYNC with the market.
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Post by sd on Jan 3, 2023 8:36:58 GMT -5
1-3-2023 Futures are in the green for this 1st trading day! But modestly so- Not expecting any large moves...
AAPL is up premarket- TSLA down . ARKK up
I will be looking at positions carried over from 2022- all were recent adds in the prior 2 weeks- Energy may struggle here as Europe is having a warmer than normal winter...
I'll be taking some start positions in GLD, SLV in the IRA - may take trading positions in GDX, SIL -the miners...or try the 3x for a day trade... Bid Ask premarket above the top side of the range.metals, may see a leg up- SQM,downtrend reversal? FCX scco, copper range. Filled GDX, SIL starters-scco
Markets turning to the red post 10 am- Long TSLQ (TSLAA reports a miss), Long AAPD; shorts AAPL, Long SARK- shorts ARKK funds.
looks like a whipsaw day off
Neither FCX nor SCCO orders filled- I will be taking a position in both -based on the need for Copper as infrastructure, and China- EV's etc- Watching the 10 am price reversal and trailing a buy-stop , limit order to get a lower price- as the price declines, the orders get lowered.
aS PRICE MADE SEVERAL RED BARS, ONE GREEN BAR HIGHER, THE REENTRY ORDER IS NOT TOO CLOSE- WATCHING THE DECLINING VWAP AS AN ENTRY LEVEL- nOTE THAT WE HAVE THE FAST AND STANDARD pSAR S IN SELL -
10:48 AM- Markets in the Red- seeing a pause in SCCO- green bars in FCX will lower the buy-stop to $38.45
Both orders filled @ 10:58 as price makes a push higher-
Both of these trades filled- but fail to keep any upside momentum- If these were daytrades, I'd have to stop out on the 5 min chart pullback for a minor loss in each- I reduced my position size to be much smaller due to the initial weakness- I'm going to hold these- and potentially size up at lower pricing on the larger time frame charts.
I'm getting a nice pop in my pYPL position carried over from last week.
Gains in AAPD,TSLQ,SARK
Price retraced- and hit the stop but filled higher-as a mkt sell- My stop order had not been activated because I failed to hit the submit button when I raised it. Note that had i used the slow psar, I would have stayed in the entire trade up to now.
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