SD- 2021- ACTIVE MANAGEMENT FOR GREATER SUCCESS IN 2021

[sd]

2-26-

Bought 40 MRNA $158 limit filled @ $156.02 in the Trading account- for more spec trades.
open due to Cramer's premarket comments that there is talk that the RNA procedure may also be an approach to fight some cancers.
ETSY 20 $228.75 on the earnings beat- but also down big- de

DAMAGE CONTROL FROM MY EARLY 2 BUYS!


Lesson to be learned here- I should have waited until 10 am to determine market direction- I was certain due to Cramers rementioning - several times premarket about the MRNA "potential" that would have pushed this much higher- I will have to use the $150.75 swing low and set a $150 stop-loss
ETSY has pulled back with a $206.37 low and is presently higher- This would have been a great entry as it is at the 2 day prior base level.

Nas has now gone from positive into the Red. ETSY-

I allowed my itch to make a trade- at least in the trading account- all cash - to jump into both of these trades on seeing the upside momentum all green and being in a hurry to jump in- I could have scaled into both trades- and saved myself this kind of loss. I am going to use the swing lows that are made as my disaster stops- on both positions- although price has presently revered a bit higher-
Etsy $206 will represent a Loss of $22.75- Price is presently rebounding to $214.00 ....so I will use the $209 level now for a stop - under the present sideways action as a higher swing low to be below.






I was stopped out of MRNA for a LOSS because I raised my trailing stop too tight- My own fear of loss with 2 losing positions due to my early entry - and both trades dropping hard shortly after the open- Following the pullback in the 1st 30 minutes, Price based sideways- for 30 minutes and then started to uptrend above the fast 7 ema on the 5 min chart. I should have followed the guideline of waiting to set a stop only after the bar penetrating the fast ema Closed below it- but I saw the penetration of the fast ema and tightened the stop too close. Neither one of those penetrating bars Closed below the fast ema- I could have set the stop @ the 30 ema below the price bar- that was about $1 below the fast ema-, Price has since continued to move higher, and is above my entry- . I will look at today's swing low $151 as a stop-level if I take another entry today.


ETSY ALSO GOT CAUGHT IN THE NAS DECLINE AND IS ALSO PARTICIPATIN IN THE NAS RECOVERY-
I'm giving this a bit more stop-loss room presently. and raising the loss from above the swing low today$206 back up to the 30 ema-below the penetrating blue bars swing low (bars $217.00 low- 30 ema $215.00 ) IF I get a Red bar below the fast 7 ema, stop will be raised there.


Did Buy GE @ $12.65
50 SNAP $66.27 Entry STP $62

EOD- Glad this day is Done! 2 losing trades in the Trading account- ETSY and MRNA both due to poor entry and bailing out when the stocks both improved towards the End of Day-
Holding Z & SNAP in the trading account-

Down to 9 positions in the Van account- The tight stop-loss approach saw the majority of my positions stops execute- It's been a tough week overall, and this follows a struggle to make some gains this week-
The Van Account Value is a new recent Low $232,793.00 with $189K now in cash. Even the value funds did not hold up as the volatility was wide- Still net +++ on the YTD, but the direction in the past few weeks is lower. Time to regroup !!!
The IB account took a big hit as well- suffering the losses from ETSY and MRNA - Closing at $22,005.00- down -5% on the past week.

I expected Tech to struggle, but thought the swing would shift-all in to value and recovery/infrastructure plays- Even they were under water-
As I reflect on today- I don't regret the already- in-place stops getting taken out-on the existing positions- that was part of the plan I follow- I can only be angry with myself for jumping the gun on MRNA at the open- and ETSY- after seeing how much drop they both had in the 1st 30 minutes...Perhaps when the markets were trending, jumping in at the open saw a higher gain- but with the greater volatility- waiting to see how price unfolds after 30 minutes or so makes a better assessment of where the true trend may be heading-
It was quite interesting watching those 2 trades on the 5 minute charts and accordingly not reacting at the lows, but allowing price to turn back higher, and raising a stop progressively- I should have held the MRNA position- as it did not drop excessively below the $156 entry.

It's always prudent to Pause when what had been working fails to work- and in this case- the heightened volatility of the past Month and particularly now this week's reaction to higher bond rates- is a caution as to how the market is reacting-
The $VIX closed $27.95 higher at the Close than today's open.

What also sold besides the Value funds was the recovery and commodity materials positions- I plan to invest back into this area - but I had to take some gains with tight stops on some of these winning positions- and yet they declined below the stops. JNJ vaccine has been approved for an early release- single shot vaccination- can be stored in a regular refrigerator- a real game changer- Might under mine the MRNA push that Cramer was highlighting this am about the MRNA approach to fighting cancers. I think we may be on a decade + high in terms of advancing areas of genetics and disease diagnosis and discovery- that will transform medicine over the next decade.

One area I had just entered was the regional banks- KRE which also stopped out this week- Yes, I am getting aggressive with stops on new entries-
no longer satisfies to view just with a Daily chart, but I want to drill down on the 4 hr, 2 hr, possibly even the 1 hr.
The wider PSAR value on the Daily is significantly closer on the 4 hr. Carter worth is using KRE as a fund that should be Sold- Take profits.

[ira85]

SD,
I want to thank you for the time and effort you've spent updating your trading results this week. I especially appreciate your candor regarding buy/sell decisions, stop-loss decisions, etc. you've made that have turned out to be wrong or disappointing. I've long thought that the stock market should be a great training program for modesty. You have a tremendous knowledge about stock trading, but you have wisely taken the path of modesty and continuing to study, rather than engage in trash talking that is so common on some other sites. Admirably, even after many years of study you still read and study daily strengthening those skills. One of the benefits of the modesty approach is it makes you much less likely to break your arm patting yourself on the back. Thanks. Keep up the good work. -ira

[sd]

Thanks IRA,
No back slapping here lately!
It is much easier to focus on the Wins rather than the losers-but the losers teach us much more perhaps than when we have a winning trade-
It is an ongoing process of discovery if we are willing to realize we have much to learn. The simplicity of making a trade deceives us in thinking it is also simple to win in the markets. It deserves study-
I could have stayed With the trade and not set a stop so tight- I also went oversize on MRNA- I seldom would go greater than 4 k on any individual stock - and typically much less than that 1.5-2k average -because I simply don't trust what can be the random results of a "news" item that can really affect a stocks price sharply- 20%
I listened to one of the webinars at SSM this week where Dan pointed out that small size positions -as I typically do one stocks- seldom make a big impact on the portfolio- So I went 2x as large as I should have with MRNA because I was influenced by Cramer's twice positive commentary about research in the RNA approach that MRNA applies may be an effective approach inn cancer treatments- I could have also split the stops- one tighter and one wider - And- as I think I mentioned - Seeing where price was heading before jumping in at the open- But the initial climb in price had profits all in the green -initially- so I would have thought it was going to continue higher- and would have jumped in at a higher entry perhaps- which often happens when a stock has momentum behind it ....
Yes, I think it's important to analyze your trades- and come back to them- a week or a month later to see if the trade decision - the Buy or the Sell -was the best decision. Also, I think since we had the topping action in Jan- sell-off in the last week- recovery Feb 1- The environment has shifted- While I lost a bit again this week- (seems to becoming a Trend) I lost less than if I held those positions that continued to decline- so I netted some gains in positions like Pave, URI, HRI, FCX, MP etc- offsetting some of the losses. These are also some of the positions I will reenter- ideally at a lower price than where i sold them.

The upside Momentum we've had- for 2.5 months- has certainly taken a shift- and the market's concern about the rapid rise in Bond rates may see a further shift out of even the best infrastructure recovery names- So, things like Tech may continue to be weak and considered overpriced, and other names may see some selling ..... We'll have to see. 5-10% corrections are simply natural market swings- The markets will continue to go higher . but different names may become the new leaders...

As we perhaps get more judicious and cautious-
One book I read a few years ago (Muscular Portfolios by Brian Livingston) laid out a method of different types of portfolios that are conservative in nature, rebalanced monthly, and reduce Risk in a market decline (and also gain during Bull markets)
The portfolios are designed to be reviewed once a month and rebalanced if needed- and as the year progresses, this type of approach may well be worth pursuing - Check it out- There are different Portfolios- Papa Bear, Mama Bear, BAby bear that are all actively tracked-and updated daily-
No stops are used in his approach . Out of the portfolios choices, the 3 with the best momentum are selected and held and reviewed and replaced when momentum shifts. Interesting reading - and a larger portfolio could combine elements of the 3 different portfolios-
These 3 portfolios; Papa Bear, Mama Bear, Baby Bear are actively updated daily- and may yield a good way to see where one is positioned- or even apply these same strategies- Certainly managing a portfolio of just a few names sounds like a real time saver.
And , the portfolios are backtested for long term performance- Not meant to outperform the S&P on the big bull upside moves, but to also protect during declines. As I plan to spend less time trading as the year and weather progresses, tracking less than a dozen positions -perhaps in the IRA would be more manageable and effective use of my time. Just a passing thought this Sat am-
muscularportfolios.com/
the 3 Portfolios:
Papa Bear 13 funds- presently favors viov,viog,pdbc =Small cap value, sm cap growth, commodities


Mama Bear -presently also favors vioo,pdbc,vwo small caps, commodities- emerging mkts



Baby Bear -starter portfolio copies Jack Bogle 50-50 VTI, BND - Note that Vanguard would now also include VXUS, BNDX in the mix
US stock, Bond, Global stock mkt, Global bonds.



This would be the results if this allocation was invested in since April 2021- I don't know where the allocations were during the market decline in March- Possibly the selection would have gone cautious and held some bonds and treasuries. This group clearly outperforms the SPY

[sd]

Week's review : I am now approx 80% in cash-as stops executed this week-
The attached charts are 2 hr charts with a 200 period ema (approx =50 ma on the Daily)
a trend line across the tops indicates that the upwards momentum (slope) failed to meet the upper trendline in Feb, -Also worth noticing is the Jan 29 low penetrated below the ema- and we are presently there this week. Potentially, we will see a break of this lower trend line- with 370 the target low (dbl bottom). If we get a Rally, we would want to see it higher - hitting the 395-397 level.


Similarly, The QQQ's displaying weakness-across the Tech sector-even more pronounced than the SPY. Price this week has penetrated below the prior swing low Jan 29 twice this week. The large indexes provide support for long positions- when they are also trending higher- The present price action of both indexes is displaying weakness and that can be a drag on even the best individual positions.


PERIODIC PULLBACKS Are normal and healthy -allowing an uptrend to pause, regroup, and then move higher-
when the trend is broken- and we can use the Daily 50 ema as a reasonable warning level- When price is declining below the 50, and the fast 7 ema is below the 50- the trend is down- time to get cautious.!
This look back to Feb/March when the fast trend line broke through the mid trend line and then both broke through the 50 ema was a clear definition of a downtrend-
Moving averages inverted and going lower, below the 50 ema- the attempt to go back higher in late March saw a pullback in April-making a higher swing back low, followed by a higher move regaining the uptrend.

[sd]

3-1-21

FUTURES UP
I'll look to reenter Value, Infrastructure, and Emerging mkts - ideally these will capture the discount in price given over this past week's decline.
I waited until after 10 am,to ensure that the Rally was holding. going back in long.....
EOD update- I had a very high % in cash- and put a substantial % of that amount back into the markets-
Today was a rally day across all sectors- I started off by Buying positions in the more conservative Value funds and infrastructure , went on to add into EM and China funds that have recently sold off hard- I have gotten these funds back at a nice discount to where i sold them- assuming they will continue to rally higher here.
In the IB trading account, i bought some RIOT Bitcoin, that gave a nice +6% return on the day- I'm holding this overnight,
Also bought back MOON- a steady performer returned +4% today - Snap I held from last week $66.27 and it's barely up ...
Z- Zillow- Bought it last week on a positive report,$160.97 and it's up $7 today-

I find I am relying more on trying to get tighter entries closer to the POF- and using faster time frame charts to drill down-
The Daily gives me the wider view of many months, and then the 4,2,1 Hr charts provide a more in depth view of the price action.
Today on the SMM forum, several stocks were mentioned that made upside moves today that I took small learning positions in - SMG, TSCO, DHR
What i liked about these 2is that they held up last wee4k relatively well when markets were selling off . I checked them all on Finviz.com , looked at the news items- and see in Zacks that DHR is highly recommended.
Scotts Miracle Grow is likely well positioned for both the Pot industry, and spring gardening-
TSCO similarly held up well, had an update today and I bought it right at the Close. Tractor Supply-
Other individual stocks i bought -
DQ- I read an article posted from IBD talking about some individual solar plays- as i viewed each of the stocks mentioned in the article, they all were in substantial declines except DQ- it held up well in weakness, so I assume it may be a leader in the solar space- bought it early today, and it closed up nicely.

I also added REKR, MRNA, ROKU, All near the lows - I did take the time to view the "News" on Finviz regarding REKR- it held up well last week- I was unfamiliar with the name Zacks has a positive report on it's position in the automotive market.
ROKU was a reentry- I have held this several times in the past, and netted gains - this seemed a timely entry with na bounce off a dbl bottom.
MRNA was a spec entry simply on the Steve Grasso comments following the Cramer comments - that MRNA may have a much wider medical approach using the RNA technology to also fight Cancer.

I went overweight on Value- VIOV,TDV,OUSM,IWD,EFAS,IWD, already holding tdv, ousm
Back into PAVE, GRID, MOO<KRE< MXI -
Also went back with more Risk in the Van Roth into PRNT, and ARKQ...

PBW, SLX (steel), MXI as well as EM plays- AIA, KWEB,MOON, CNBS, GE, DE, (small positions)

It's worth noticing- note to self- is that by employing a faster time frame chart to view a prospective Buy or Sell, the faster the time frame, the closer to the price action. The benefit of this is potentially earlier entries with a POF close and thus a minimal loss- Similarly, a fast time frame will make a minor pullback in an uptrend look like Price is falling over Niagra Falls.

Entering a trade on a trend reversal higher with just a 2-4% stop loss would be ideal- the faster time frame can offer that tight of a signal. also, that brings more frequent signals- so potentially more whipsaws.


What is the "BIG PICTURE"?

www.etftrends.com/etf-strategist-channel/outlook-2021-the-start-of-a-transformation/?utm_source=Salesforce&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=etf-newsletter

We are definitely on the road to a recovery- Herd immunity and a return to "normal" It's been a very long past year, but truly amazing strides have been made on both the medical front and the technological shifts-that have allowed life to continue- and hopefully we will see a return to "normalcy' bu summer 2021.

We've seen this year bring to the forefront all of the inequalities that this country needs to address- Social, Racial, Economic.and political.

Mammoth change lies ahead-

[ira85]

The bulls were running today. The DJIA was up 603 points. The NASD up 396. NYSE advances 2624 Declines 651. The VIX volatility index was down 16.46% ending the day at 23.35. Not much fear in the market today.

I recently noted every pullback in the past year has been brief and has been a buying opportunity. So what about the past two weeks. A warning sign to take cover or an opportunity to buy the dips?
Well here's the answer stockcharts.com/articles/charthingychers/2021/02/this-timetested-theory-is-scre-450.html

The author is the very smart Tom Boley.
Below is what I've been doing recently. CV is current value.

02-02 Bought RSP @ 130.41 cv 137.24 +5.24%
02-03 Bought QQQJ @ 32.59 cv 34.13 +4.96%
02-22 Sold QQQJ @ 33.96 +4.2%
02-22 Holding 75 QQQJ @ 32.59 cv 34.13 +4.96%
02-22 Bought PSCT @ 143.81 cv 143.89 + 0.06%
02-23 Bought DBA @ 17.34 cv 17.19 -0.86%
02-24 Bought VIOV @ 169.89 cv 170.53 +0.3%
03-01 Bought VIOV @ 168.77 cv 170.53 +1.0%
and 6.5% in cash

Currently 5 positions, RSP, QQQJ, PSCT, DBA, and VIOV. The most recent purchase is VIOV, small cap value. Recently both small cap and value have been recommended as a way to respond to sector rotation, i.e. reduce holdings of big cap growth and get more small cap value. -ira

[sd]

Nice allocations- I think the small cap,value, Ag all are well positioned. and qj better than large cap.
There is an issue with the link you posted.
I think we have to view the Friday lows as a support level that needs to hold.
Today the futures are down very slightly, normal after such a big up day.

Tough day for tech and I simply took losses on a number of new adds that looked promising at todays open, but declined during the day-
I've given them some room here, but given up gains into losses- I had a nice pop open on Roku, RIOT and both lost ground- should have had a finger on the trigger on those 2 - profits evaporated- breakeven on Riot, In the red on everything Tech- Gains in the commodity, steel plays, but even the value funds were down on the day-
A bit of selling off a big day like yesterday is common, but this appears to be more than I would have expected- I certainly expected the value theme to hold up better.
On the TEch front, TSLA closed below Monday's gains, AAPL as well- CRM declining hard, AMZN, FB declining- Only GOOG is still technically uptrending. So the rotation OUT of tech is still underway, but red on most positions.
Jets, IYT (transports) flat, MP- specialty metals + 7%, MXI-global mat up slightly, GUNR +; steel index SLX up +1% VIOV-1.5%
Tomorrow will be a critical day, as I have generally used the Friday Lows as a stop-loss line for many positions- Now, those individual stocks i bought that ended up closing lower, will require me to tighten the stops to today's low- not allowing them to decline further.
Even some of the materials companies that had participated - concrete, stone, steel saw selling today- so, even if one is not positioned in tech, these other areas are struggling - at least today. The Rise in the 10 year precipitated last week's sell-off, but I'm interested in hearing the "WHY" this afternoon.

I also recognize that it was easy for me to think this was setting up like the last week in Jan with prices selling off- and the market rallied that Monday FEB 1 and i had a big upside week jumping back in that day and the next- Certainly not the case here, so expectations are greatly reduced on my end- Now it looks more like damage control.

[sd]

US Futures up modestly- Today is obviously critical for my positions taken this week- Foreign mkts- and particularly China - The Asian indexes up so I am looking for a strong rebound in my global exposures- A China spokesman earlier this week declared the US markets to be in a bubble-
Asian mkts a tell: so this bodes well for my EM positions- and I may add into them-
"
Asian markets finished broadly higher today with shares in Hong Kong leading the region. The Hang Seng is up 2.70% while China's Shanghai Composite is up 1.95% and Japan's Nikkei 225 is up 0.51%."
AIA, 50 China large caps
CHIQ, China consumer
KWEB, China internet,
KURE, China healthcare
MXI, Note- MXI is a global materials ETF- necessary in a global recovery- this is a new entry for me

I'm particularly anxious to see how the US value plays hold up today- and small caps-
Value is getting some love today-
tightening stops on declining positions
Adding to winning positions- CMC- FCG- CMI

11 am- Tech getting clobbered- Selling my tech positions for losses.

Adding to VIOV- initial position 40- dbld- down today on strength - shaping up to try to break above the Feb 25 high
GE breaking out- a recent position - making a new high- Holding 200- will buy 100 -seeing it's 1st pullback on the 5 min chart from $13.61 couple red bars now, -Looking to get it @ $13.35 congestion area -cancelled the limit- now it's a buy-stop for $13.45 due to the congestion area providing support- but if it breaks lower, I will follow price lower to add- or the buy-stop gets a fill. lessons in charting on the 5 min chart - "support " is the $13.35 area.


pRICE IS HOLDING AT THE PRIOR CONGESTION AREA- THAT'S A TEMPORARY "SUPPORT- REALLY LOW VOLUME AT THE LAST 4 PRICE BARS-


Both Lolo and I will be adding to our recent GE positions today- Price is presently downtrending, below the fast ema- If it breaks this $13.35 support level, we will lower the buy-stop following price as it get's less expensive. Price will have to make a Close above the declining fast ema to indicate a potential reversal higher move is underway.- Perhaps the price action picks up @ 12:30 - Everybody out for lunch LOL!


BUY STOP gets triggered and filled




I've taken a small short Tech position 100 SQQQ $14.73- entry stop on the intraday swing low $14.10 will see how this holds up at the Close to decide if I hold it overnight. Perhaps this is indeed the start of CW's prediction of a "Doozy" of a correction- hope it's restricted to The tech sector..
Just had bought back into ARKQ, PRNT, both are now stopped out-today- Out of all ARK funds for the time being-

QQQJ's seeing selling-The higher move Mar1 looked like a breakout, that has failed to hold. The EW is being dragged down with all things Tech-


In the IB account- 150 UVXY $9.03 stop $8.30- This is a volatility bet that will get trashed on a market recovery. Late pm getting into this- sold 1/2 on a pm pullback, and raised a stop to $8.50 Learning process on my part with the volatility and sector shorting. Offset by putting monies to work in sectors that are gaining.


The Energy sector has done well today-XLE, VDE both showing upside today- Prices are pulling back this pm off the highs - I will stalk this going into the Close to see if I can get a pullback to enter on. vde- may take a 1/2 position on a move higher
i PLAN TO HAVE AN 80 SHARE POSITION IN XLE. I watched price declining this pm from a steady move higher earlier in the day- As it paused and started to reverse higher- I bought 1/2 the position- as it appeared to want to go higher-
as it faded from that move, I bought 20 on a higher blue bar- thinking it could go higher- and took a final 20 share position at $3:59 -
Net 80 share position.



After the CLOSE- The SQQQ tech short is up slightly- a late day entry- The UVXY volatility trade is right where I entered. with 1/2 the position
I'm not sure how to play this- The bad Close for tech looks like it should see more selling pressure as people dump their tech positions- As the open is often more volatile- I will put an order in to sell 1/2 at Tomorrows Open, and a stop-loss for the remaining positions at my entry cost- on both positions.

[sd]

From IRA's previous post
"Below is what I've been doing recently. CV is current value.

02-02 Bought RSP @ 130.41 cv 137.24 +5.24%
02-03 Bought QQQJ @ 32.59 cv 34.13 +4.96%
02-22 Sold QQQJ @ 33.96 +4.2%
02-22 Holding 75 QQQJ @ 32.59 cv 34.13 +4.96%
02-22 Bought PSCT @ 143.81 cv 143.89 + 0.06%
02-23 Bought DBA @ 17.34 cv 17.19 -0.86%
02-24 Bought VIOV @ 169.89 cv 170.53 +0.3%
03-01 Bought VIOV @ 168.77 cv 170.53 +1.0%
and 6.5% in cash

Currently 5 positions, RSP, QQQJ, PSCT, DBA, and VIOV. The most recent purchase is VIOV, small cap value. Recently both small cap and value have been recommended as a way to respond to sector rotation, i.e. reduce holdings of big cap growth and get more small cap value. -ira

Some potential defensive moves-

I think the equal weight holdings will be the better performers in all indexes- However, it pays to be cautious and tighten stops, cover your entry cost and perhaps lock in some gains.
The SPY was again down today to the 50 ema with a Loss of -1.32% RSP S&P eq wt is well above the 50 ema and closed at the 7 ema.- and is only down -0.51
essentially holding up much better than the larger index- With an entry cost of $131.41, I would perhaps split the position stops- I would view the Feb 26 swing low
as a stop for 1/2 the position. $133.25 a stop @ $131.35 - @ the 50 day ema is above the entry cost- potentially allows room for volatility pullbacks & the price to go higher.

QQQJ- lOW $32.46- DOWN -3% ON THE DAY-HOLDING AT THE 50 DAY MA. QQQ'S ALSO DOWN - BUT WELL BELOW THE 50 DAY- SELL if you have not yet done so.

PSCT- Small cap tech- closed $137.18- Put a stop @ the $137.--- and then Sell if it bounces higher if you hadn't done so- Take the Loss-

DBA hAS MADE 3 RECENT cLOSES BELOW THE FAST EMA- SET A STOP @ $17- ABOUT -1% BELOW WHERE IT CLOSED TODAY.21 EMA. OR GIVE IT MORE ROOM $16.79 THE 30 EMA.... tHIS ONE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GO HIGHER i WOULD EXPECT- 50 EMA @ $16.50 WOULD BE PLENTY WIDE- RISKS MORE FROM YOUR ENTRY $17.34

VIOV- SMALL CAP VALUE- IT Gained today +1.35% when the IWM has been downtrending the past 3 weeks- Off it's 230.00 high by - 11.00
This is an impressive difference in the small caps- The Value distinction has gained over the past 3 weeks- I added to my position today-It needs to Close above $172.50 to have the uptrend continue. If the market should sell-off the 160-162 level should see some support- That push lower 2-26 $163.20 was a warning, with a good recovery back above the fast ema the past 3 days. If concerned, about the higher potential Risk-rather than the potential for gain- One could sell 1/2 of the position , hold the remaining 1/2, and set a stop -1% below the low of any Close below the fast ema-

Chart compares the performance over the past 7 days - Small cap value Red; Small caps Blue, QQQ's green



Going back another week- 12 days- return

[sd]

Sum up today-
I thought we were going to see a big oversold Rally this week, went from 80% cash last week and put a fair amount back into the markets Monday and had many of those trades that looked promising turn and head South- I am virtually out of Tech - will be selling the TDV position tomorrow at the open tightened a lot of stops today and yesterday- and shifted some assets into more value and performing positions today.
Account is now down to $230,408 with a 30%+ cash position.
I think Tech will continue substantially lower- The overshoot to the upside will also likely overshoot to the downside- so I'm not too concerned about missing out on a tech rally any time soon-

The Cathy Wood interview of this possible correction in 2021- worth a viewing if one has not yet done so. Posted here previously :
www.youtube.com/watch?v=kfhgbZBWgBE
I think this is easily just the beginning- of a deeper tech repricing. So, how to be nimble and shift allocations- potentially raise a higher % in cash and see how this settles out?
I think a 30% cash position is smart here, and ideally I will be smart in the next group of trades I do-



Update on the StockMarketMentor website- A lot of member participation, DanFitzgerald provides Daily market videos-
stockmarketmentor.com/
I recommend giving the site the 30 day free trial- and some good training videos - It's a win-win to take the trial, view the many videos- all for free-
i'll view more- of the training videos .
I have taken a number of trade ideas from the site's members- that have worked out well - MP, HRI,URI, STLD,CMC and a number of others- Of course, there have been some losers I also took- but the choice was all mine. Members toss out their different ideas in the forum.
Dan recommends trying to enter a trade with a 4-8% stop-loss and ideally closer to the -4% Yet that tight a stop is often difficult to achieve- particularly if one waits to enter until after a breakout- - and he particularly wants to watch for a pullback retest
He often refers back to the Daily chart and looking for entries as price perhaps consolidates around the 50 ema-and then moves higher-
And then also looking to reenter continuation of the trend following a price pullback-
He also posts his stock watchlist and gives suggested entry signals and stops suggestions on about 20 stocks-
His evening Strategy Session videos are interesting- His unscripted delivery can be fun to listen to- and instructive-
Since he has a broad base of subscribers, I get that he is flexible in how members take suggested trades- but he tries to keep members on the correct side of the trend- 50 ema etc.
I likely will not have time in the future to become a regular member-as i hope to return to a more active life away from the computer screen as the weather improves, and we get our second shots in a few weeks. Looking forward to being with Family, out of isolation, and putting some seeds in the garden and miles on the lake.

[sd]

3-4-21


Futures slightly in the red on the 3 US indexes. ASIA is down-2%

Jumping in on the 1st green shoots has not been profitable-
GE UPGRADED BY MS TO $17 TARGET seekingalpha.com/news/3669329-ge-extends-gains-as-morgan-stanley-forecasts-banner-investor-day
seekingalpha.com/news/3669017-ge-rallies-as-ubs-sees-help-coming-for-reducing-pension-liability-problem

CMI upgraded seekingalpha.com/news/3669358-cummins-rises-as-jefferies-outlines-bullish-case-for-chinese-markets

FSLY- up 3% premarket 'https://seekingalpha.com/news/3668596-fastly-prices-upsized-825m-convertible-debt-offering

My 2 volatility trades sold at the open - SQQQ, UVXY for a negligible gain/loss.
GE is among the best port positions today, FCG, CMI - KRE bank sector -viov, IWD value up. Some volatility in the metals -

As a spec trade, bought 100 BUZZ as it came open - $24.29 cost. it's a social media tracking etf.

The Nasdaq-proxy QQQ is now Negative for the year 2021. As goes the index, the majority of tech stocks will follow.-



Reminder to Self- What counts is not where the accounts may have risen to- but how much of it you can buy groceries with-
I'm close to 50% in cash now.

Tech across the boards is being sold. the SQQQ short would have been well in the green had it not hit my tight stop-


PM- Spending time outside - Markets all down across the boards Stops in place. NAS down really hard.
Reviewing and tightening stops.
Even small cap value being sold- Raising cash-across the accounts-
This selling is no longer limited to the Nas.
I'm down to 4 positions now- with stops relatively close to their intraday lows. GE,XLE, EFAS,FCG

Apparently Fed Chair Spoke- and spooked the markets, so it's a market wide sell-off-
I only have $20k still invested- Cash is a good place to be while this settles out.
Rising Bond yields taking Tech out...and the SPY, Dow.

TSLA- and ARK funds all taking a BIG HIT.

Even the minerals, economic recovery, infrastructure all getting clobbered.

Time to go back outside and wheelbarrow some mulch!

A bit of physical vigor to offset the market's taking away more profits. But, I'm not really distressed - this is just trading- and positioning myself to absorb less RISK seems a prudent approach-... When selling is widespread, you don't know how far it may go-- much of it can be automated sells that trigger- and add to the selling- This may not be a time to Buy the Dip- there is a structural shift in the market's direction . and Tech will likely continue to see the biggest downside as the market's search for the value plays as we go into reopening the economy-

2 weeks ago, TSLA had pulled back to the 50 ema, and was below the declining fast ema that had crossed the slower 21 - Last week Tsla penetrated what I thought would be a support level, and today it pushed through to the low side $600- I think the chart then looked at $450 as the next level- TSLA is now below where it was entered into the S&P 500- quite a drop from the $900 high it hit in JAN.
Valuations do matter when the market changes it's bifocals. This is a relatively shallow pullback for the markets- so I think we have the potential for significantly greater downside.



Energy was the best sector in terms of holding up today- I was surprised by the amount of sell-off in some of the recovery names- metals, steel,copper, MP, and several of the other positions I recently added to but had to sell- CMI, CMC ,Pave, infrastructure recovery names- that I will possibly look to reenter down the road-
When things sell-off at large- The Baby tossed out with the bathwater- to borrow that expression- But it pays to be cautious here- and going forward-
The easy momentum gains are over- so the extended tech names without real earnings- and that would include many of the biotechs and holdings in the ARK funds- are likely going to see a greater sell-off than the broad tech sector- I am not holding Any TECH- nor looking to Buy any just because it is getting cheaper. .I took my stops and my losses ..... Plenty of cash I can buy groceries with..




HOW FAR DOWN CAN THE TECH STOCKS GO?
That depends on how severe the selling can be- and how indiscriminate-
let's view FSLY- Presently it has declined to the low 60's- a level last seen in NOV.
It's next support level is $50-$45 if it breaks lower from here. It continues to decline under the fast ema and well below the 50


CMG - A CRAMER FAVORITE STOCK THAT CAME INTO EARNINGS "HOT"



CRAMER EXPLAINED THE Sell-off in CMG as coming in too Hot going into earnings- so everything was already priced in. and thus the sell-off.
a recent high -$1560, now sees a decline to $$1,350.00 but with continued selling in Tech- where could this go lower?
Prior swing low support should be @ $1,200.00, but if that level fails to hold up, the next support level would be $1,100- $1,000.00.


CMG initially declined after earnings, but appeared to rally Mar 1 & Mar 2 ,getting back above the 50 ema- usually a positive sign- but only to get pulled down in the Tech selling-
How far it may go is up to the markets?

[ira85]

Thursday afternoon, 3-04-21, 1:00pm

RSP has been holding up well. If I'm reading this correctly, the 7 EMA (135.35) is just barely above the 50 EMA (134.57). The 50 EMA is well above the 200. So the 3 EMA's are indicating RSP is still maintaining the long term rising trend despite the index showing weakness. The RSP current price 133.52 is still above the purchase price 130.41, but it's fading. Is there anything we need to? Oh my. I just looked at CNBC. The DJIA is down 700 points and NASDAQ is down almost 500. If I'm gonna make these changes, I better get to it before the market goes down another thousand points.

RSP is at risk of turning from a profit to a loss. Plan: sell half of my 200 shares. I'll put half of my holding in the bank and try to grow the other half. VIOV is a similar story. It's held up pretty well on some days with some pretty heavy selling. But I waited too long to take defensive steps to protect it. I'll sell half to lock in some gain and try to turn a profit with what remains. PSCT is already in the red. Sell the full 50 shares. Same situation for DBA and QQQJ, sell all.

We started the day with 5 positions and end it with 2, RSP the equal weighted S&P 500 fund and VIOV the small cap value fund. With these defensive actions we've reduced market exposure and risk. But these defensive actions came too late, after three days of selling. It would have been much better to sell these holdings yesterday (Wednesday) or the day before. I didn't know the market was going to sell off so much today? No, but I knew the market has been flirting with going down sharply. I had a trip out of town scheduled Wednesday no ability to follow the market or enter trades for 2 days. I should have tightened stops Tuesday before leaving town. Leaving these positions exposed to risk for 2 days was too much. Or was it. As I'm looking at the chart it seems there might be some support at 163 for VIOV. Maybe holding VIOV and seeing how it handles 163 would have been a reasonable approach. SD mentioned that possible support and I can see it too. Did I wait too long to sell VIOV? Or did I sell to quickly? The market will probably go up tomorrow, Friday, and all of my selling today will look bad. We'll see. Don't it always seem to go, that you don't know what you got till its gone. -ira

[sd]

3-5-21 Good Jobs report- Futures look to be making a recovery- I'm staying out of Tech though- at least for today and likely much longer-
The recent selling will give some positive turns in some prices today- Good jobs report suggesting the recovery is underway.
Today is critical for turning a bad week higher. Cramer is saying that Tech may get an oversold bounce for a few days, but he thinks tech goes down even further-



"RSP is at risk of turning from a profit to a loss. Plan: sell half of my 200 shares. I'll put half of my holding in the bank and try to grow the other half. VIOV is a similar story. It's held up pretty well on some days with some pretty heavy selling. But I waited too long to take defensive steps to protect it. I'll sell half to lock in some gain and try to turn a profit with what remains. PSCT is already in the red. Sell the full 50 shares. Same situation for DBA and QQQJ, sell all.

We started the day with 5 positions and end it with 2, RSP the equal weighted S&P 500 fund and VIOV the small cap value fund. With these defensive actions we've reduced market exposure and risk. But these defensive actions came too late, after three days of selling. It would have been much better to sell these holdings yesterday (Wednesday) or the day before. I didn't know the market was going to sell off so much today? No, but I knew the market has been flirting with going down sharply."



YES, Yesterday's markets reaction was likely an overkill-on the 3 broad indexes. but you never know- if it will kill it further- I think TECH remains in the crosshairs and I don't think we see a substantial Tech rebound any time soon, but it needs to be viewed selectively- I think keeping an eye on small cap tech- or Equal Weight- vs the QQQ will give an early signal as to step back in.. I'm not rushing back in .

DBA and VIOV held up well above the 21/30 ema- RSP looks toppy with a big red bar penetrating almost to the 50 but a better recovery Close above the 30.

Notice that DBA had a strong up momentum move the prior week- pulled well away from the 21 ema. Now it's back to an average gap in the EMAs- It also held up much better than MOO- so a good relative choice.- However, it has had 3 lower closes below the fast ema-this week- As I look back over the chart, it has trended well since DEC- Yesterday's Close was a lower Close for the week- It's not a big spread in the price , and pullbacks eventually do turn into better lower entries-- I will actually look to enter this on a higher move using a buy-stop $17.35 as an entry level on an expected bullish green bar and continuation of the uptrend- with a stop-loss @ $17.00 - the 21 ema and below the Red bar.
It all depends on where we enter a trade- and while I've entered in the middle or upper part of a trend, the trade can quickly turn into a loser if price then makes a pullback -and I view a Close under the fast ema as a 1st warning sign-on the Daily chart - I would have been whipsawed a bunch on RSP if I held it the past week.


I think both of these will hold up relatively well- I sold my VIOV position just to lock in gains-/or to reduce a loss on the recent add. and I will be reentering viov- When things get sketchy, I tend to view the faster time frame charts- both for exit points and reentry points. I also will look at DBA in the AG space-
Notice on the DBA chart- multi day pullbacks below the fast ema have then reversed with a green bar pop above the fast ema- so this may be that same entry signal- Closer to the Point of Failure- Yes, if you held through the 5 days of decline and Sold- if it goes back and appears it will Close above the fast ema, it is a reentry signal

A LOOK AT PSAR BUY AND SELL SIGNALS WITH DBA- 3 NICE WINS- 1 SMALL LOSS- DBA SELL SIGNAL MAR 1- STILL A SELL SIGNAL IN PLACE ON THE DAILY CHART



COMPARING THE PSAR SIGNALS ON A 4 HR CHART- NOTE THAT PSAR IS BEST USED WHEN PRICES ARE TRENDING- AND NOT IN A SIDEWAYS RANGE

It performed well on DBA with 2 small losing trades, and 4 larger winning trades- if following with a stop-loss- holding back 1 psar value slower may not get hit as often. But this looks promising as a possible more mechanical type of entry and exit/stop-loss with using PSAR-
Potentially the 4 hr could be used as an entry signal, and once the trade was clearly in positive territoy, widen the stop-loss to the daily psar- or split the position. Note that sideways consolidations on the 4 hr with the emas clustered is often a tight base from which price can move up or down quickly- the psar signals are suspect in a tight base, and an entry should be with a buy-stop above the top of the base highs.

uSING A FASTER TIME FRAME WILL GIVE EARLIER- AND MORE FREQUENT SIGNALS- fOR EXAMPLE THE PSAR BUY-STOP SIGNAL ON THE PRESENT DECLING PSAR IS $17.37, WHILE ON THE dAILY CHART THE DECLING PSAR -WHEN USED AS A BUY-STOP -IS $ 17.57. Also, the 4 hr psar as a stop-loss will get much closer to price as a stop-loss.



Note Daily PSAR is presently suggesting that a Sell was indicated Feb 28.



EOD-DBA did not rally-VIOV up solidly- making a Close at a new high-
RSP made a recovery with a higher Close today than yesterday, but lower than the prior week's bullish days, but a nice recovery- The wider bars are indicative of the heightened volatility- The Daily psar is giving a sell- the 4 hr psar initiated a Buy signal.

We spent the Day away from the markets- made no trades- GEEZ missed out on all that price action recovery- Met up with some Family and had a great day!

There's always Monday- Weather's getting a warm spell here- and so Wed will be a 1st day on the Lake - 75 degrees!

TECH tried to make a recovery, but is still clearly in a Downtrend- QQQJ, QQQ, ARK funds,TSLA, CMG,FSLY etc all still in a downtrend below the fast Daily ema and dropping below the 50 ema- With the main indexes still weak- it's a good sector to wait until the sector actually bottoms, and then makes a recovery.

[sd]

It's been a losing week, Closing at $228,460, about 90% in Cash- and very defensive- I have continued to give back profits these past weeks as I have continued to enter trades that largely have both winners and losers- but the losers have offset the winners- Very simply, the newer volatility has kicked my butt- and the net overall market weakness and volatility- My answer- Reduce my positions - cut any loser asap - and demand that the trade position become net profitable asap'.
With all 3 indexes turning down, particularly continued TECH weakness, I've cut all Tech positions OFF- and made steps last week to shift into Value, metals, steel, and infrastructure plays- Along With a added position in GE-
I really got it wrong 2 weeks ago by hearing about the semi shortage and going long into Semis. Funds as well as
some individual names- Will make a further assessment this weekend, but I'm satisfied to have a large cash position, still up on this year with gains,

[ira85]

In a March 1 post I noted, “every pullback in the past year has been brief and has been a buying opportunity. So what about the most recent pullbacks. A warning sign to take cover or an opportunity to buy the dips? Well here's the answer
I tried to leave a link to an interesting article by Tom Boley, but the link didn't work. I'll try it again

stockcharts.com/articles/charthingychers/2021/02/this-timetested-theory-is-scre-450.html

If that didn't work, I'll try to give some directions to get to that short article. The article's title is This "Time-Tested Theory is Screaming to Buy Now." It is time-stamped February 26, 2021, 9:58 PM. Go to the first page when you login to StockCharts.com. In the upper left corner is "Charts and Tools" then Articles. Click on Articles. I think it's worth the effort. Reading the article again after the week just ended leaves me wishing I'd re-read it sooner. Tom Boley seems not to have lost any sleep during these buy the dips opportunities. -ira


stockcharts.com/articles/charthingychers/2021/02/this-timetested-theory-is-scre-450.html Yes, that link fails to go to the article,but the general article page link works-

stockcharts.com/articles/index.html This is the main articles page link- scroll down to the Bowley article.

Also worth a read-Arthur Hill FEB28 - but take notice of the depth the previous downtrends went down to the 200 ema.-