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Post by sd on Sept 3, 2021 19:32:08 GMT -5
END OF WEEK - Accounts ended higher on a weekly basis- Van account Closed $245,530 IB Closed $22k Overall a slight net gain % wise from last week- approx holding just a 4% cash position- Market is still Risk-on - Sector rotations still occurring-
Culled out some industrials that have not performed well this week and one Reit- taking small losses on those positions, but freeing up cash to apply elsewheres.
As markets have bucked the seasonally weak trend- at least momentarily; I've also applied a rather tight stop-loss approach that
has mixed results- I've been whipsawed on positions like FTNT, and had to reenter at a higher cost today- but I've also locked in smaller losses and keep a larger % of gains-
We are all prone to Recency Bias in both trading and investing- That's human nature, and tends to influence how long we stay in a position- We often see what we want to see, despite the contradictory evidence- but that's human nature- and difficult to disregard.
Ultimately, the Buy and hold working investor has likely been the winner through this relatively short pandemic- ideally buying every month when the market crashed, and buying every month during this historically fastest market recovery- That's the right approach with those having 5- 10+ years prior to retirement-
Those that cannot afford to have a 30% decline in their retirement nest egg need to be more tactical in their approach- perhaps we will see that upcoming new correction within a few quarters after the economy has reached some sense of normalcy in the next 6 months. Eventually, the recovery momentum will peak, the earnings beats will falter, and valuations will again dictate price at valuations that are "normalized" - Thus- the long awaited correction will arrive.- my conjecture- is we have 6 months-
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Post by sd on Sept 7, 2021 9:34:08 GMT -5
9-7-21 Markets slightly in the RED- 10 yr yield 1.361
Considering the relatively mediocre gains that I've held onto YTD- compared to the net returns of the "Markets" , being willing to take on more Risk, larger position size, and better entries are all on the table.
CRNX - position in the IB account- stop- did not activate despite the depth of the 5 minute bar exceeding the stop-loss level I had in place- I cancelled the stop-loss and changed it to a stop-limit- expecting that this was a move by institutions to run the stops and to push prices higher- This is thinly traded, so the bid-ask gaps the price .
Bought DKNG on today's breakout of the recent week long trading range.
ENERGY- BTU NICE POP TODAY
UPST- A Friday position - nice pop today
Extended Federal benefits end this week for a lot of the population- GS projects a sharp drop in economic spending and only a modest gain back into the workforce. GS also predicts a rather lackluster GDP_ for 2021....
As much as the financial crisis of 2008 affected the mind set of those that saw their investments crash by -50%; this ongoing pandemic will have a long term
impact on how people will view their work, their family dynamics- and possibly lead to more personal fiscal restraint, and lower debt levels as the struggle to make ends meet and simply survive for many that did not have a support net beneath them. Ideally, the Covid experience was a life long lesson for all of us that we can attribute to finding strengths and abilities within - developing our personal resilience and emphasizing the importance of what we hold most important- Family, Friends, and our Health!
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Post by sd on Sept 8, 2021 10:13:11 GMT -5
9-8-21 Adjusting stops and selling a few declining positions today - Nas down almost -1% , S&P -.33% -
Cash position approx 25%
Crypto continues to be selling off-
Defensive areas - Utilities, real estate, Staples leading today-
UNG -NICE GAP HIGHER- BTU steadily trending higher. UPST trending,
positions sold this am on higher stops, locking in gains, minimizing losses.
ARKF,INDA,EMXC,ARKQ,IWF,FTNT,
This may be part of a small rotation- or perhaps the ongoing Covid fear is going to push the markets to be more cautious. The long awaited "correction" continues to be absent- so pullbacks can still be viewed as potential buy opportunities- until proven otherwise.
Strongest industry group in healthcare is medical devices - IHI- I added to my existing position- Trending to new highs in a weak market-
I also added to XLRE- real estate-
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Post by sd on Sept 9, 2021 6:37:19 GMT -5
9-9-21 Futures in the RED
Cathy Wood recent take on the economy and market trends.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqvF_8hxQo8
MRNA ENTRY TODAY :
ALKS REENTRY TODAY :
I decided to use some of my freed cash to purchase a starting position in TAIL - a Cambria fund that is defensive- and holds treasuries but also is long PUT options-
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Post by sd on Sept 10, 2021 9:46:10 GMT -5
9-10-21 Futures in the Green- PPI indicates high levels of inflation in August- No surprise there...
Reflections of 9-11 bring back a lot of memories...Thankfully our Country has been able to prevent attacks on that scale from happening, although there are still too many acts of violence ....
I added to the TAIL position with additional cleared cash- I plan to hold this as a defensive position- 400 shares.
Tight split stops on BTU--
AAPL sell off on news on a judgement on the APP developer charges. Affecting Tech in general-
This week looks to be ending on a low note- Winning trades offset by decliners with the net result a low Close on the week
The industrials sold off this week- HON, ROK,ETN .
A good number of positions stopped out this week as I've employed raising stops on trend weakness. Intentionally locking in gains and reducing losses-
Late afternoon sector chart:
The Sector results for the week are equally uninspiring!
SPY rolling over this week: Losing -1.7%
Tech- QQQ-
Materials- commodities- specialty chems making breakouts or new highs this week.and marine shippers continue to be high SCTR scores-
EOW - rather uninspiring tally -Van $242,512.00 - with a fair amount of raised cash. 40% cash
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Post by sd on Sept 11, 2021 9:01:32 GMT -5
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Post by sd on Sept 12, 2021 7:59:39 GMT -5
Commodity exposure- rotations within the industry group -
Considering future allocations - defensive exposure to commodities with future inflation a concern, plus a potential upside longer term commodity cycle-
Presently BTU, UNG, XLE positions- energy positions.
Holding a basket of commodities within a portfolio may provide needed diversification plus offer growth in a global recovery and higher inflation- Watched a webinar with Tom Lydon and the Direxion managers of COM- an actively managed portfolio of 12 commodities that gives both a go-long or go flat exposure to 12 commodities-
Presently long 11 commodities in the AG, Energy/oil/nat gas/copper/and Silver- No present exposure to GOLD.
During this year, I've owned- and sold several of the listed commodity ETFs in this list- Based on the type of exposure , there can be quite a range to select from - Past performance does not guarantee future performance- Some commodities will be out performers in a recovery/inflationary environment.
Several SA authors trying to provide compelling arguments as to Why the markets will go into a near term correction -5 -10% in the next 2 weeks- Prudent IMO to cull underperforming positions and raise some cash, and tighter stops on winning positions-
Market complacency is near an all-time high- Past minor corrections of -5% have found Buyers buying the dips at the 50 ema...and they have been rewarded for that action this year. I'll plan on putting some cash back to work- but anticipating a pullback to the 50 is indeed probable-
There are enough ongoing disruptions to the economy- The continuing impact of Covid- Delta - the supply chain disruptions, the lack of workers to fill the millions of jobs at wages being offered, Inflation that may not be transient- but potentially will force the Fed to react sooner than anticipated- or find themselves behind the proverbial rate hike 8 ball, waiting for full employment to be realized at a cost of runaway inflation- Several forecasts suggest that the upcoming GDP growth will not meet expectations- with a stall in the recovery...
The net results of this past week shows general weakness across many sectors- with some sub groups outperforming-
A Correction here should not come as a surprise-
9-13-21 Premarket futures are all in the Green-
Going fishing- weather is a bit cooler-
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Post by sd on Sept 14, 2021 7:31:53 GMT -5
9-14-21 Futures flat, CORRECTION fears negated yesterday?
Morning headline :
"Tuesday’s CPI report likely to show inflation continuing to run hot, putting the Fed in tough spot"
Next week the Fed meets to discuss it's digestion of the economy and employment and when it will announce plans to taper- causing rates to rise and likely that would have the markets react negatively- High and sustained inflation would be what precipitates that decision if the employment rate stays well above the 4% goal.
CPI coming in high, but moderating. 0.3% vs the expectation of 0.4- Futures rallying , as the markets are thinking that this will keep the Fed on the sidelines for a while longer.
Apple Event today,Product announcement today- After breaking out higher last week, AAPL pulls back into the prior channel.
Has AAPL reached it's High for 2021? I bought back into AAPL on last week's move higher, stopped out Friday on the retracement.
Is this the top for AAPL?
A lot of tight stops were activated yesterday, Holding a large % in cash now-
Saw Dan Niles- The Satori Fund- on CNBC
His firm trades- and is presently short the S&P and short AAPL and some high priced Tech names- anticipating a -10 - 20% market decline. He Cites that historically AAPL runs up into their events, but then declines and sells off for several weeks following. He also believes that Covid prompted huge increases in purchases over the prior year that will not be duplicated moving forward-
15 minutes after the open, the Technical scans returns are generally showing few stocks outperforming today-
Really low numbers in the stocks making new 52 week highs today; With the bullish news about the moderate CPI, you would expect to see a more bullish response to the 'good news' . Lackluster response early in, will have to see how the day evolves....
Just 18 stocks outperforming so far today in the NYSE new highs
The Nasdaq improving:
Markets went into the green, and then softened as the day continued. @ 3 PM
AAPL shares declining -$147.59- after the AAPL Product event- as many forecast as the "Normal" reaction ...
i did add 2 uranium plays today- the index- URA, and CCJ.
Also entered AMD as a trade.
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Post by sd on Sept 15, 2021 10:05:43 GMT -5
9-15-21 Markets relatively flat mid morning-
Viewing the scans, Nat gas- UNG ripping higher- Unfortunately, I sold too early on this one. Too high to chase it here-
With a very large cash position, I'm swinging into the commodity space-Did buy some COM- actively managed- DBE, PDBC for a mix of commodity exposures.
There are a lot of differences in how some of the commodity etfs are focused- Broad basket holdings, vs more select focused-
If inflation remains relatively high- commodities should serve as a source of sustained value- Lots tyo be learned about the various etfs that comprise the commodity space.
Broad basket etfs:https://money.usnews.com/funds/etfs/rankings/commodities-broad-basket
All breaking out of month long bases. Trades in IB include URA, CCJ, AR
AAPL continues to sell-off - typical post Event day behavior. Niles got it right-
aS I GO THROUGH THE NEW 52 WEEK HIGHS- GSKY - Notice the sharp sell-off yesterday - I expect this was GS institutional manipulating the price down to exercise the stops as they planning to accumulate/BUY this co. ( Not a position)
TEAM- I'm holding a relatively large individual stock position -purchased just last week. aadded to the position yesterday -
EOD: TEAM made a solid new high Close-
With the Nas participating and a positive higher close after 6 days of weakness-
I took a new position in ARKF- All of the ARK funds- except ARKG showed a net higher Close after many days of decline.
I'm viewing ARK on the 1 hr time frame, and using this faster view to try to enter more timely entries- and exits-
The ARK funds have not recovered this year, although TECH per the QQQ's has been trending, albeit with weakness in the past week.
I added exposure to India - holding INDA, added EPI -
Tech exposure QQEW and went ahead and repurchased MSFT onthe announcement re buy-backs and a new price high. I had a decent short term gain that I locked in last week .
Commodity exposure through 3 different funds- I need to review the distinctions- some hold exposure to Oil and Gas- COM,DBE,PDBC,
I also hold the URA and CCJ with exposure to Uranium - Added DVN on today's move above $30.00. Holding a position in XLE-without stops & XLRE-
Cyclicals may see a return, along with the Value theme- I also took a position this week in AMD as a value play on the pullback to the 50 ema- with the expectation that the $102 recent prior low identifies a solid stop level.
JP Morgan- expects some market weakness and puts a $4,700 target on the S&P- Expects higher rates, and high flying expensive tech to get sold off- Also thinks the Covid is easing in many countries- and that the emerging markets represent a better valuation and more exposure to cyclicals than the US.
HEDJ give exposure to Europe- stuck in a sideways range for 6 weeks.
EMXC - gives exposure to emerging markets except China- choppy sideways action- stopped out last week, but it only had a minor dip - I may reenter a starting position, but I would expect that a sell-off in the US would also be a sell-off in Europe and the EM.
The negative China commentary is tremendous. The Gov't continues to impose regulations- today it was on gambling- affecting all the companies with business in Maccau.
Japan- EWJ has been on a rip in September-
Russia- RSX- a big energy/commodity producer- I may add a position in this for some global commodity exposure-as it recently broke out of a months long sideways range in September- It sells energy/oil/gas to Europe-and because it is trending higher, and the theme is commodities-I'll take a position using a stop-limit order
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Post by sd on Sept 16, 2021 6:55:13 GMT -5
9-16-21 Premarket futures modestly in the RED
Yesterday pm watched the SPACE X launch of 4 civilians-on a 3 day journey - circling the earth every 90 minutes! Impressive!
Elon Musk certainly is a visionary -
Today I will be adding starting positions in RSX and EWJ as part of a global exposure diversification. Both of these are trending higher.Buy-stop w/limit entries on today's orders. The EMXC may potentially go higher from this recent base, but it has had a minimal gain for the year, with extended periods of sideways range. This reflects the overall lack of gains in other EM's. VS taking a full position in EMXC, I am selecting those out of the US countries ETF's that are showing upside momentum.
Brazil has considerable commodity resources -EWZ- but is presently in a downtrend- with a potential dbl botttom @ $34.00
The recent price action has rallied a bit higher with dual swing lows near $34.50. If EWZ rallies above it's recent range, that may provide a potential early entry on a commodity uptrend-
Shipping & Covid issues are affecting the transportation of goods across the world-
Some retail numbers came in stronger than anticipated, whild jobless claims slightly higher than expected.
Perhaps Delta is indeed peaking and we will be seeing a decline in cases in the months ahead? Delta clearly impacts the economy in those areas with increasing cases. The majority of hospitalizations and deaths are due to those still unvaccinated-
In my area in NC, the County has mandated masks for indoor settings. As we enter what is typically FLU season, the enhanced awareness of getting vaccinated should extend to high rates of vaccinations against the Flu-
reviewing the scans from stockcharts- for potential trades today- This grouping of various scans has become my #1 go to for assessing what industry groups are leading the markets action, and leading stocks & etfs- Typically I go through the NEW 52 WEEK HIGHS group- the NYSE and then the Nasdaq, and sort the list by clicking on the SCTR heading to list from the highest SCTR score down to the lowest. Ideally scores above 90 .....Then I also review some of the remaining scans PAR SAR BUY Signals often give early potential up moves- Then put that into a review of the trend, the SCTR score, and where a stop can be placed.
stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.scan
AMR breakout yesterday- trying for a lower fill @ $53.00
AMR filled at the pullback order- My net cost 65 @ $53.21
10 am- markets in the Red:
I'm holding a number of recent positions without stops - testing both my emotional level for holding uptrending positions during this volatility, as well as my belief in the present trends in those positions. I may regret this experimentation !
Commodity positions entered this week are all lower today.
Running the SCANS again- in the NYSE BX is the strongest performer -SCTR 99.2 followed by 6 Marine Transportation stocks.
There is a very Recent ETF that holds 43 shipping companies- BOAT - It's been trending strongly in it's last 4 weeks.
www.sonicshares.com/boat/
Instead of betting on one or two individual shippers- this ETF would give a "safer" diversification into the Transports group. Shippers are in peak demand - and the ETF has very low volume- so the bid-ask spread can be wide- note the large spikes on the 1 hr chart. Today's very high relative volume spike 9-16 may reflect a peak in it's price action- as it dropped in price after 10 am- Reviewing the price action on the 5 minute chart, there have been gaps of over 1 hr where no shares traded in previous days. So Caveat Emptor!
While this may be a diverse way to enter this industry group- the very low volume and the lack of participation in the A/D line -divergence from price action-suggests that the potential for a decline in the uptrend is probable.
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Post by sd on Sept 17, 2021 4:04:39 GMT -5
9-17-21 Futures Flat premarket-
From JCParets-Allstar charts- Risk on-Risk off checklist
I'm in somewhat uncharted waters and find it uncomfortable- I'm holding a number of very recent entries- and without hard stops in place.
I've also taken some larger positions relative to what is the "Norm".
Last years outperformance came from jumping back in as the markets rallied in November-
I've been simply struggling - with the choppy rotation the majority of this year- following the tech highs in Feb-
My tight stop-loss approach has achieved sub par results for the majority of this year- and so I am trying to re-evaluate the merits of protecting myself from downside volatility while getting whipsawed in market rotations-
On the one hand, I feel as though I'm starting to get a good handle on the market rotation through various industry groups showing up on the scans -particularly those breaking out to new highs- but it seems many of these industry group rallies are relatively short lived temporary pops higher, and not strong trends-
Just view the relative performance graphs from Finviz.com - GROUPS-
The past month showed declines in most sectors- with 4 of 11 sectors having gains over that period - Energy topped the 1 month performance-
The 1 week performance saw losses across 10 of the 11 sectors- with Energy being the only sector in the green-
Since i am certainly just a student of the markets- and a slow learner to boot, but trying to share some of what is my ongoing learning curve-
Just when i question whether I shouldn't have more of an Investor mindset in the IRA, The market will push me back lower- and my go-to reaction is to allow myself to get stopped out to retain profits- Over the past Month, I had accumulated about 4K in gains (paper profits until positions are sold), but then the market's pullback and that can quickly evaporate-
I know September is a seasonally weak period- so I'm still holding a high % in cash- Will we get a major correction this month- or in October?
That remains to be seen- Options buyers are indicating an increase in Put protection- So those that have gains are buying protection, or making bets that there is a greater likelihood of a down side rathewr than an upside continuation.
Some of the market pundits explain that the reason we haven't seen a sharp correction yet is that the individual sectors/industries are having a rolling correction - rising and then selling off- There may be some validity to this as to why we haven't had that snap lower- But the expectation is that we need to have a more substantial decline to shake out weak hands- like myself- to see the markets then recover and move higher-
I'm a bit frustrated with what i assess as my underperformance- and my inability to allow my IRA account more latitude in price swings- and keep the Traders mindset restricted to the Roth accounts- I would have been substantially ahead in 2021 YTD had i that ability-
That noted, I am going to interview with an Edelman Financial Engines rep in 2 weeks to get their evaluation on my account performance, and what they would do should i transfer my IRA over to them to invest- I presently have another advisor that manages part of my IRA- and the net returns over the longer term is about 6% YOY- with a low volatility approach- approx -10% decline when the markets dropped -30% - but it seems to be a set it and forget it other than periodic rebalancing- and several of the allocations that Equis has me allocated to are historical underachievers- with low Morningstar ratings regarding expenses and performance.
I know the benefit of having an impartial advisor is to keep one invested in the markets- Stay the course and not try to time the markets-
However, I've managed to get out of the markets and raise cash on several periods of markets declining to my net advantage in having minimal % loss. So, my Risk Aversion and stop-loss approach allows me to take some greater Risk- But- due to My own Operator implementation- I have not kept pace with the markets and have underperformed substantially YTD>
I think the IRA account would be best served by primarily an indexed approach- with an allocation into some thematic ETFs-
Because i enjoy the challenge and stimulation that active management brings- I would keep my Roth accounts active and under my control.
We'll see what evolves- This is what happens when one wakes up at 3 am and cannot get back to sleep!
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Post by sd on Sept 19, 2021 8:04:45 GMT -5
Reviewing the market's performance since 2018 - What is noteable that when one views the markets averaged annual returns, the -33% drop from the Covid sell-off -Feb High to the March low- is a non-event due to the extreme rebound higher we have seen-
While we have had an aggressive rebound- All time high historic rebound- and PE valuations- Once the recovery from Covid is fully priced in,
and the quarter over quarter returns no longer out perform, Why will we not see markets anticipate a more historically normal valuation for what will become just average returns in 2022?
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Post by sd on Sept 20, 2021 8:10:37 GMT -5
9-20-21
Premarket futures all Down large- Dow-570, Nas -150, S&P -60 Debt ceiling concerns? China's Evergrande- Huge property developer may default- Chinas growth is slowing- China is passing new regulations this year affecting many companies and their business models. Could it cause a cascade sell-off in China, and thus affect global stocks-? I intentionally do not hold any exposure to China- or Chinese stocks- since the Spring sell-off in KWEB. But as China goes, it will be a big overhang on the Emerging and global mkts. Contagion fears awakening. Volatility - VIX above 26
Market Continues to slide a bit going into September week 3- Still not yet down -5% from the prior highs. Having a large % in cash presently as a defensive measure seems to be the correct prudent step I've taken-along with a position in TAIL- A defensive fund that hedges market risk with PUT Options. It will be interesting to see how well it performs relative to the market's weakness this week. I had intended to add to the position if it had declined further - but that's not the case... It is approx a 5% allocation to the IRA value presently.
www.cambriafunds.com/tail
As goes the USA, so likely will foreign markets go- We are now largely Globally intertwined. I thought my recent diverse basket of commodities I entered last week - would see upside in choppy & falling markets- but that is not necessarily the case- I listened to one pundit this am on CNBC that explained that concerns over China's lack of growth is also affecting companies like Rio Tinto - iron ore for steel fabrication- down -30% . US steel companies all trading down-
I intentionally added commodity funds last week- in the IRA. They have a mix of different exposures- They may also drop as the market sells- I'll learn from this- but commodities and real estate are positions i'm holding in the IRA.
As I reviewed my most recent IRA allocations this weekend- All were in the Red-except TEAM having a nice gain offsetting the losers a bit. Recent Ira allocations presently are without stops- A very recent decision that is prompted by my relative underperformance this year compared to the Spy's ability to have relatively shallow pullback dips that all have gone on to make new all time highs.
Being defensive- and seasonality suggests weakness potentially extends into October- What is the catalyst for future market upside as we go into the Fall? As noted last week, the Quarter to Quarter blow out out performance will cease to be the case as we return to "Normal" post Covid- in 2022. The high valuations given due to the blow out earnings will eventually become muted, and markets will reprice to more reasonable PE valuations.
The Van IRA - and Van Roth- Lost a bit last week, and will be lower after today - Using the Dollar value as the metric-
Combined Value Premarket $ 241,346 IRA $174,259 Van Roth $67,087
Van IRA -$58k invested (33%) 116K CASH Van ROTH -3 positions MSFT,BX,AMD 12k invested ( 18%) 55K Cash (82%)
IB ROTH- Will be taking losses on trades made last week- AR,SD,DVN,ARKF,AMR - tried to experiment & hold without stops Lost over $1k last week - obvious mistake as market conditions have gotten worse- These were all trending higher on my recent entry last week-
Premkt value $20,259.00 - At the open - IB positions all stopped out except AVGO -a position I held for several weeks Now the account value - 95% cash- $ 20, 298.00. The overall loss i've allowed this account to sustain is wholly due to intentionally adopting a lax approach and not applying the typical stop-loss criteria- Given up -10% in this account in recent weeks.
10:10 am- Generally the market open and the 1st 30 minutes higher volatility settles out. The SPY had a substantial Gap down lower open, well below the 50 ema with a 1.5% drop -The Sept 2 high $452.60 and today's Open $434.88 is still only a -3.9% pullback from the high.
SPY DOWN -2% ON THE DAY MIDDAY.
Will today's sell-off be the DIP Buying opportunity- I think Not -Although I intentionally added to the XLRE position on today's weakness.
The TAIL position- gapped higher at the open as expected, in contrast to the S&P , and gaining during the day.
EARLY AFTERNOON SECTOR SUMMARY
RED ACROSS THE BOARDS-
tHE fINVIZ -GROUP CHARTS- COMPARED TO A FEW DAYS AGO-SERIOUS INCREASE IN THE RED SPECTRUM-
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Post by sd on Sept 21, 2021 7:00:35 GMT -5
-
9-21-21 Markets set to Rally! Bull trap Booyah! Or at least that's my opinion - There's a worm in the Apple.
Take selective and small bites only.
Theres some ETF products that I want to learn about- That combine a long index exposure along with a PUT Option to reduce the downside-
www.simplify.us/etfs
Starting at 11 minutes - Simplify CEO discusses the options approach- New ETF model, Simplify has only been in existence for 1 year- Without any longer term history- Their ETF model is an unknown- but an interesting approach . How the costs for the options works out in terms of net results- Considering a way to hedge a portion of my portfolio- I want to learn more about these kind of products -and what other companies offer similar strategies.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgxRlNuMC3k
David Keller- The Final BAR 9-20- take - 50 ema fails.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=VuA9vRWvLDc
At the EOD- The markets tried to rally this am, but the momentum didn't last. As the headline on CNBC says-
"
-The Fed will try to soothe markets Wednesday, while preparing investors for end to bond buying"
The Fed is certainly very focused on assuring the stock market that any upcoming taper and reduction in bond buying will be a gradual process and only well orchestrated with the recovering economy .
I didn't follow the markets today, nor attempt to make any trades- I'm only holding a dozen positions, across the combined accounts - presently without hard stops. Considering these as potential long term positions in the IRA - and testing my willingness to see a decline and the positions go into the Red -without reacting on relatively shallow (at this point) pullbacks-
However, as D keller pointed out- This was a break in the 50 ema- something that has not occurred in over a year.
I was actually absorbed with responding to my financial adviser that had me put a portion of my retirement assets into a Fixed Annuity- At the time, it seemed a sensible and "safe" way to get a portion of the market's upside during good times, and none of the downside during market corrections-
And during the 1 year annuity period , mar 2020- mar 2021the markets gained 33% during that 1 year period-
My annuity allocation to the S&P index during that period ended up making a net $0.00 gain-
The Annuity tallied the monthly gains and losses, and in the 1st month, the markets declined sharply- and the annuity recorded a 16% swing down in March- - The gains were capped @ 1.75% of the net market move in the following months-
Over the course of the year, There were 2 months that had negative volatility swings totaling -16% & - 4%- for a combined total intramonth decline of -20% The "capped Gains over the remaining months were just 1.75%.
The annuity had 0.00 returns based on being charged the full volatility drop % while the capped gains month over month for 10 months not equalling the downside. Caveat Emptor- Buyer beware!
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Post by sd on Sept 22, 2021 8:03:27 GMT -5
9-22-21 Market Futures in the green, awaiting the Fed speak today to set the ever benevolent tone.
Market action this week- Substantial gap down below the 50 ema Monday-with a Buy the Dip occurring the last hour.
Yesterday started off higher, but lost momentum - but also closed at the Monday's Close level-
Today's price action- and importantly- where today Closes after the Fed - will set the tone for how September goes-
Headline notes- Oil demand higher- Europe higher- Evergrande crisis may be controlled by the Chinese gov't.
TEAM was one position that didn't stop out- and went higher yesterday- but made a topping tail.
I was expecting the markets to find reasons to give a greater decline this week- The overall underlying momentum indicates market weakness in many stocks. I find myself largely in cash, and not getting that bigger drop I was hoping for-
Chief Powell reassured the markets, and the Rally continues- Thus proving- once again- That Buying the Dip will be rewarded! Unfortunately, i retain a large cash position due to the prior weakness and the technical breakdown last week. All of my remaining positions rallied higher today- how sweet it is!
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