SD- 2021- ACTIVE MANAGEMENT FOR GREATER SUCCESS IN 2021

[sd]

I agree- it was smart to take the profits when you did on a drop in the trend-
Unfortunately I just took my 2 losses- 2 stops as RIOT failed to match bitcoin's higher move and GBGTC's higher move this pm I elected to not allow it to drop much below the midday pullback lows. about to post the charts. GBTC acted differently!



There ended up selling across the indexes by the end of the day- Karen Finerman on fast money is shorting small regional banks- KRE a position I just went back in today on- - thinks it's all gone too far- What seems to be very problematic is where will the market eventually go- Tech names are in the crosshairs to go much lower- and that likely will include Tsla and the entire Spac market and EV plays.
Energy -XLE hit my stop-loss and is seeing a pullback on OIL, Value seems to be just OK -
Perhaps more Cash is smart nowadays!~
CW had a webinar today to respond to concerns about they manage the high redemptions of the ARK funds- Obviously ARK goes lower- and CW anticipates a 15% growth rate in the years ahead as "normal"- that will be a big disappointment to all of those that bought ARK funds at 30% higher levels and likely get to see another 20-30% lower.
Let's face it, the overhyped, overpriced valuations were in vogue for a relatively long period- almost a full year-for tech's reign higher until the luster went away and valuations became a thing again. It will be prudent for me to be more diligent in my efforts to follow market rotations....

[sd]

3-19-21
FUTURES UP -Slightly Will see what kind of a recovery holds after 10 am -
I'll be watching bitcoin -and compare both GBTC and RIOT- Had I selected GBTC vs RIOT, I would have ended the day positive yesterday- and held overnight.
Should I take another shot at the crypto spacde with these, I will use a much smaller entry position.
I'll do some better chart comparisoms today of the 2 -

10:00 am- Nas down a bit more .50, Dow -.82, S&P -.50 It's just 10 am and so it's best to see how the markets choose direction in the next hour. Cannot trust the 1st 30 minutes....
All 3 markets not bullish, still working through sector rotation and Fed/10 yr rates. Eventually, the markets will likely come to a balance on the higher and rising 10 year, but I continue to hear the repeated refrain that a rising 10 year rate will undermine the still higher priced Tech markets-but today it's undermining almost everything .

I had just bought back Regional banks -KRE yesterday and today's headline news is a negative for the banks: I also have a sizable DIA position that is being affected.
Dow falls 300 points as Fed bank capital decision hits financial stocks
The Fed will not extend a pandemic-crisis rule that had allowed banks to relax capital levels
Notice the elements of the Daily chart - The trend is clearly up- all 3 emas are in proper order and rising - but notice the failed higher price action yesterday to push to a new high failed- However, Price remained above the fast ema- Today's open was right at the fast ema and in the 1st 30 minutes price had dropped down lower, but then recovered a bit back towards the opening price . Note that it is not uncommon for price to push down below the fast ema- and as can be seen in the Stoch/RSI- the momentum had not been high- but steady above the 0.5 line- but recently gthe momentum turned down and today is entering below the 0.2 line .
The PPO indicator similarly has indicated weakness as the Black line crosses downward and is below the 80 line .
The A/D line has been positive and rising, and just now tipping down.


THE 2 hR cHART to illustrate the price action




Checking OUT RIOT a 1 month daily chart - illustrates what happened when the uptrend peaked FEB 17 - $79.50 - up to that point, all green bars- all above the fast ema- The Fast ema value on Feb 17 was $57.00 - $22.50 below the price high. But the trend looked solid until the big Blue bar that tried to go higher, but Closed much lower- $63.00 - The decline that followed saw price drop by over -50% - and along the way , there was a bullish attempt to recover @ $53.00 above the fast ema- Followed the next day by a higher open- that ultimately closed lower- Had i been following RIOT at that time, I would have seen the Mar 1 Close as a higher reversal bar- and importantly Closing near it's high and above the fast ema- I potentially would have entered on that higher Close- $53 or as an EOD trader- entered at the next day's Open-$57 which was bullishly higher- thinking the uptrend was resuming. . The trade would have failed as price proceeded to decline below the downtrending fast ema. It had 2 days where Price tried to open higher, but closed lower- . I would have then raised my stop to the low of the entry bar $47 , which would have been hit Mar 4. Price declined to $35 - but closed higher- but the decline of $18.00 below my entry at the Mar 1 Close - would have seen price decline by 33%

Would I have been wrong in taking the intial entry signal as time to enter-? NO- The Trend was up and All the Emas were still technically in proper sequence, and the pullback appeared to be due to the excess pull away - and the expectation was that the Mar 1 bullish bar and higher Close was the start of a trend continuation higher- Notice how the 5 ema turned upwards following Price Mar 5- My initial stop-loss on the $53 entry- would typically be set below the Feb 26 low- $40.00 as that should have been the Reversal bar and thus the "Bottom" of the decline- The issue with that wide an entry stop is the high % at Risk =23% unacceptable- so instead I would see what the Low of the entry bar represents = 46 = -11.5% but a better Risk stop-loss- Let me also point out that this was the 1st reversal of Trend attempt- which often Fails. Since this is a hypothetical backtest-
Had i been stopped out Mar 4, I would have seen Price decline through Mar 8- Mar 9 , I would have seen the next higher Close that also turned the ema up- and would enter at the Closing Bar $52.50- about where i entered the 1st time and took a -12% loss-
SO, one's thinking Goes- IF I just Held onto my initial Entry, I would have saved that 12% loss and look- How much further ahead I would be since everything worked out in my favor-
"The Market Rewards Me If I am Willing to Hold On long enough is the thinking." It's Normal to see that and think that- but it is a very dangerous concept-
WHY is it dangerous? - I had to come back and add this very important note- While the market trend may reward this behaviour at certain periods that are favorable, there comes a time when buying early is Buying Wrong because the trend is not going to recover and bounce higher. The real truth is that history in the market is full of many forgotten names that were relative short term high flyers & favorites that were brought back to a much cheaper reality- and did not eventually ever recover to their once overly hyped prices- Buying a short pullback while everything is trending in alignment - Buying a short Dip- may indeed be a good way to add onto a position- but buying a dip that keeps on falling- is all about ego and desperation- and perhaps simply Naïve.

Since I was not astute enough to Ride RIOT up in FEB, I can only wonder whether I would have taken off gains too soon, or stopped out too late.
The Point of this Chart is to give an example of what I consider a better way to enter a position- .
The PSAR is way too far away on this Daily chart to provide an effective stop-entry though- Risk is too wide -
The 4 hr chart would be more timely. What about the 2 hr chart, and the 2 hr PSAR? It certainly looks promising- and psar looks relevant



2 hr Chart with PSAR as an entry signal and also as a trailing stop- Note that PSAR is most effective when prices are trending- not sideways .



A Performance chart of Riot & GBTC would have been useful perhaps:



MIDDAY - A call downgrading the Banks by Tony Dwyer- and a reversal higher in the Nas and S&P - Even my "value" positions are getting taken out-
and the EM Trades are barely above my stops- A bit frustrating because i'd like nothing more than to hold a Core portfolio that can stay in profitable territory and yet-continue higher. Doesn't appear that that will happen currently- So, it almost appears that the market is questioning every area it has recently swung into- - and thus the wider volatility-

A stock that was mentioned @ SSM today- Is a great example of a Cup w/Handle Breakout- This is actually a tradable move- but the anticipation is to buy a pullback that retests back towards the 340 level
It also is Typical of so many stockcharts that have declined well below their 50 ema- but this one has since made a very nice recovery (Not a personal position) but this is a good - almost Textbook example of a chart that can be studied that gives examples of price downtrending below the fast ema, the process of slowing the decline, making a Base- a 1st rally that Fails (Very common- to be expected).

As we view the longer term Chart with the 50 ema uptrending , we can see how volatile this has been since last October.
NOTE that the recommendations I present here are my own opinion- taught by others-
I always recommend taking Trades With the Uptrend- but what happens now that so many stocks are not uptrending, but have been declining and broke below the 50 ema? time to realize that the opportunities may lie in the recovery plays that offer a possible entry at a reduced valuation.

This particular stock had pulled back to the level of the 50 ema (not an exact "support" level) and rebounded in both Nov & DEC- but for brevity let's take a Close up look at the Jan price action -



FOR CLARITY i ONLY KEPT THE 5 EMA AND THE 50 EMA -
The ROLL OVER=- is a simple process - the green uptrending bars all Closed above the uprising fast ema. strongly uptrending, pulling away from the 50 ema.
Jan 13, we get a lower Blue bar that Closes Below the Fast 5 ema, causing it to turn downwards At this point, it is heading lower- and although Price intraday extends higher and above the fast ema, the Critical feature is where does price Close? If it is unable to Close above the fast ema, the trend is considered to be heading lower- As can be seen Jan 15, we have what appears to be a reversal bar- A Blue bar that opened lower and Closes higher- Yet it is still below the Fast ema. Coming off that apparently positive Bar, we get a higher open- above the fast ema, and we would think the uptrend is underway, and would jump in at that open, only to find it Closing lower. The next 2 days Price tries to hold up at the 50 ema, but that fails and the trend continues lower for another week, with a big gap down bar Jan 27- that appears to have made a bottom, as the following week, prices tend to go sideways, pushing above the fast ema intraday and at the open, but all Closing lower.
FEB 8 sets a new Low, but the next day, Price makes a big move higher and Closes well above the fast ema- This is the 1st real Reversal Of Trend (R.O.T.) THAT price delivered over the prior Month! We would then enter at the next open that is higher than the Close- and put a stop-loss under the low of the prior bar @ $285- Entry $ $298.00 - a risk of $13.00 is just a -4.5%- Because we know that a 1st reversal often does not succeed, We would see that the price Close below the fast ema the next day as a violation of our presumption that the uptrend would be underway.
That stop-loss would be set at the $290 low, thus reducing our entry cost Risk to $8 or just 2.7% -
It is 4 days later- Feb 18 that we get a Close again above the fast ema- but this time perhaps we demand a higher move above the high of that bar- which would then fill Feb 23.
Note that PSAR would have entered on Feb 10 as did our 1st entry, but kept a wider stop-loss and remains still in the trade 5 weeks later- but with a $340 stop in place- That would be a net gain of +14% if price would break the present uptrend and decline to that level.
What is remarkable following the 2nd entry is that Price only maden 1 low Close right at the ema Feb 25 - but the assumption would be that one is using PSAR - or is willing to allow price 1 Close below the fast ema and then a stop would be raised to that low-
Consider that if one already has a decent gain, one could plan to split the stop-loss- keep it at psar until price makes a Close below the fast ema, and then raise a stop for 1/2 the position. -
What I have noticed about PSAR- is that if price goes sideways, by holding back 1 day's psar value below that lower initial bar, one can often hold a sideways position for an extended period of time.

The Important take-away is to be patient if stock is in a decline- don't jump in unless it appears to give a R.O.T- and then just a partial position with a stop-loss below that entry bar -in case it fails to be the real deal.


I'm taking small $1,000 entry positions back into some Ark funds, Moon etc.All in a sideways base. The sideways basing action is above the major swing low on all of these- By using a small position on these entries, I'm willing to allow some additional volatility moves - within reason- and would add on a higher move. This is a Chameleon shift in my approach- LOL! Some of this tenative Buying in the low end of the sideways base is also prompted by some of the style that some of the SSM traders apply- Many will assume that an up trending stock is a better buy on a pullback within the uptrend when prices retraces to the 21- or the 50 ema- assuming that it will pop off that level- This does give a low % Risk entry relative to where the trend line is- and thus if it pops higher as expected, they're in the trending trade at a low cost . And that entry stop becomes the line in the sand.
Since finding a nice uptrend to partner with seems to becoming problematic lately- raising more cash and reentry with a smaller position size makes the loss
potential less impactful.

Grasso on Fast Money is declaring that people in the Tech/Growth names have to feel more pain and learn to consider other investments.
Tony Dwyer issued that warning that Financials are up too high, but then he come on Fast money to clarify that he considers that a short term observation-
Grasso believes this year will be outstanding for the financials- Rising rates, economy back to work, - and likely a Global recovery by summer- Fall?

[sd]

THE TSLA TRADES- LESSONS LEARNED
Following up on something mentioned in the prior post and also in a previous post-
I have to expand on this a bit and it was a shared purchase made by a person that just started trading this year and made multiple purchases of TSLA as her initial entry saw price drop lower, and another purchase, and price lower, and another, and again price lower and again- only to see price continue to decline, and go considerably lower.

When is it a good time to "BUY THE DIP ?" and when does a "Dip" become a DOWNTREND?

It's obvious when price is trending and all the emas are in their correct alignment- separated, and all sloping up and to the upper right - and with the Price bars all holding above that fast 5 or 7 ema- and perhaps only a periodic penetration of the fast ema as price takes a healthy pause in the uptrend. During 2020 there were many such trending periods , along with a few occasional pullbacks - that all were Buying opportunities- until Mid February- When Tech enlarge took a tailspin lower.

How does one decide when one is buying a "Dip" Which may be very timely and profitable, as opposed to when one is Buying to add to a position- but it is no longer simply a "Dip'

Let's define this process of Buying a Dip in price -or momentum- as seen as an initial drop in price that is below an uptrending ema -
Actually, this may be a very practical and Valid way to add to a winning position on a temporary pullback of price. I think that I have always been biased to only Buying while price is trending higher- and I am still biased that that is the ideal approach- But let me set some parameters as i try to explore this further-

1st- Let's assume all the emas are trending properly, and periodic price drops to the 21 or even the 50 ema may be excellent opportunities to take advantage of temporary price weakness to enter or to add to a position-

I actually said that- as it goes against my long standing belief that you wait for the upturn move - let's explore this seeming contradiction.
Let's set some borders on this approach-
A drop below the fast ema down to the 21 ema - is likely a relatively small amount- but it's also below where i would be setting a stop-loss on a break of the fast ema- So, the contradiction is why would i Buy lower when i advocate taking a stop-loss just below the fast ema?
HMMM- I haven't figured that out- But i see on SMM that some traders advocate trying to add to their position- or to initiate a new position on a pullback to a level they presume represents "support", and often they consider the 50 ema as a major support level in the uptrend- Moving averages -by themselves- don't provide support- unless it is considered a major moving average that technicians often refer to- so the 50 may have some merit, the 100 more, the 150 and even the 200 are allviewed by technicians and institutions.

This approach may have merit- as long as the trend continues- and it does provide a line in the sand when the assumption to enter into the trade assumes that price will not continue lower- Moving averages- as such- are not really lines of support- Support can be found in those sideways consolidations over a number of days in the Selling and Buying exchange within a range of price highs and lows. But let's look at the past trend fluctuations -
Using a pullback to even the 50 ema may potentially provide a very wide decline opportunity to see price rebound higher- so let's consider that as the final line in the sand for a pullback...and any violation as a reason to be out of the trade.
To be considered later when i have more time...
If the 50 ema is considered as a nominal "support" level- once price drops below it, it should then be considered as a possible resistance level-
This is not always a guarantee- as an exact line of support and resistance- but if price pullbacks consolidate at that level for a number of days, it may be simply coincidental, but buyers and sellers are using that level as a point of exchanging shares- and thus may be more meaningful as a real "support".
If Price simply drops quickly through the 50 ema, there is no slowing down do to Buyers stepping in, thus no "support" .

Let's look again at the TSLA chart with purchase dates and compare - While I tend to use the 5 ema as my fast Ema, or occasionally the slower 7 ema, The SMM folks uses an 8 period ema as their Fast moving average of choice- which is a bit wider from Price action- So for this chart review I'll use the 8 period- and also the 21 & 50 ... The Pink line is the Fast 8 ema, the Red dashed line, the 21ema, and the Black line the 50 ema . To understand the downtrend, we also need to recognize what makes up an uptrend-

Price was in a sideways range in November- a sideways consolidation- with the 3 emas tightly congested together- This is not trending-sideways action that is typically called a sideways Range- as it may go up and down a bit - but is essentially captured by sideways price action between a high and low level.
Price Breaks out of this consolidation to the upside Nov 17, and moved higher the following 2 weeks, with the Emas following price up- with some periodic price pauses along the way, and pullbacks intraday below the fast ema. A testament to the strength of the uptrend can be seen that- in the 2-1/2 months- of the uptrend -up until Jan 28- Price penetrated the 8 ema many times- but rarely CLOSED below the fast ema - ( Dec 22,23.) .
As can be seen on the uptrend through Nov & Dec, and Jan, the trend had periods of price surges higher, shallow pullbacks, and basing periods- and some real volatile $100 swings over a few days- and penetrations of the fast ema - but the Closes were all higher than the lows put in that day- and typically above the fast EMA.

In JAN, Price made a series of gap moves higher- topping on Jan 8 - and from there pulled back in a tight consolidation range - but breaking out Jan 25 hitting $900 and Closing at the 875 level- The following day, Price Closed higher , and that became the Highest Close on Jan 26.
Price dropped below the fast ema the following 3 days, and that would have prompted more Buying of the Dip- as that had worked well for the prior 2+ months. Price Closed Below the fast ema, and actually made a Close below the 21 ema-Jan 29 - the 1st time that had happened in the uptrend (red bars),.
Buying that pullback was rewarded Feb 2 as price moved back above the fast ema- which had turned sideways due to the lower price pullback.
The Week of Feb, Price declines again below the 21 ema- similar to the pullback in Late Jan, causing the fast ema to turn and slope down- Price was still well above the 50 ema for that week, as prices remained below the 21 , causing the fast ema to cross the 21 -
Price gaps down Feb 17 , hits the 50 ema, and closes above- the following 2 days price is tight and above the 50 ema, but gives way to a gap down open below the 50 ema, and that Closes $50 lower.
Feb 23 price tries to make a higher Close, followed by a R.O.T (Blue bar Feb 24 ) higher Close, but still below the 50 and the declining Fast ema.
Price declines the following days- never making a Close attempt above the fast 8 ema- although Mar 1 looked promising. (If a faster 5 ema was used- this would have Closed above it - and it likely would have prompted a Buy order Mar 2 which failed) Price then dropped another -$150.00 dollars making a Low Close Mar 8 $563.00 This was a decline from the $900 high -$337 or - 37% .
The 1st R.O.T. Mar. 9- Closes higher and prompts the fast Ema to turn up-
I would call this the 1st valid Buy on a Reversal of the Downtrend that would have prompted an early Buy seeing the strong higher Closer, or a Buy on a higher move the following day - USING A SLOWER EMA ON A DOWNTREND REQUIRES PRICE TO MAKE A HIGHER MOVE TO RECOVER . THAT MAY REDUCE WHIPSAWS-FALSE SIGNALS!
Mar 9 the $692 open would have been the Fill to buy on a market order- one could set a Buy-Stop with Limit order to buy above the Mar 8 Close -
Enter on a price above the prior Close- but use a higher Limit to not get filled at a big gap open- Note that a market order would have filled $20 above the prior Close- so a Buy-stop with Limit would have gotten a Fill as price came back lower from the open.- Now that price fails to make a higher move and is making a lower Close - where did we put our entry stop- and do we react to this lower bar? Later on this-

The big picture:


The Buys :
To make the TSLA example complete, thus more educational, I give you her purchasing dates.
1/11/21 1 share 838.08
1/11/21 1 share 835
1/29/21 1 share 800
2/22/21 1 share 707.94
Average: 805.77
Total: 3,223.08

With the Dates provided, the Trades marked up:
TRADES MADE 1-11 SLIGHT PULLBACK IN AN EXISTING UPTREND- GOOD ENTRIES
TRADE 3 - I wouldn't have been a buyer as price went lower below the 21 ema-my limitations- but that proved to be a good entry- 1-29 A TRADE MADE ON A LOWER LOW - BELOW THE FAST EMA- This is where I normally would have raised a stop-loss on the prior entries-Rule on a Close below the fast ema-- However , the trade proceeded higher- so an entry stop below that entry bar low $775 would have been appropriate, and particularly after the recovery bar Feb1 making the higher Close-
All 3 of these trades were supported by entering on pullbacks with all emas rising and in their proper order- and they all went higher-and were profitable.
What was lacking? A Stop Loss. Particularly appropriate would have been a stop based on that lowest red bar $775.00 . and once the trades went back above the fast ema- the expectation would be that the uptrend would resume -

aS pRICE MOVES SIDEWAYS - MOSTLY ABOVE THE FAST EMA- BUT THEN PUTS IN A SERIES OF LOWER BARS BACK DOWN TO $800- IT IS NOW CONSIDERED TO POTENTIALLY BE IN THE LOW PART OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SIDEWAYS RANGE DEVELOPING- aT THESE HIGH PRICES, A RANGE OF $775-$875 IS ONLY $100 OR 11% . i PERSONALLY WOULD HAVE USED THAT fEB 10 LOW cLOSE AS A REASON TO SET A STOP UNDER THE lOW OF THAT BAR -PERHAPS GIVING IT A 1% BORDER- SO bAR LOW $800- STOP-LOSS SET @ $792.00.
nOTE THAT pRICE SEEMED TO HOLD FOR 3 DAYS JUST ABOVE THE 50 EMA. - bUT, BOTH THE 8 & 21 EMAS ARE DECLINING- While the 50 ema is still sloping up , it will take many days to see it shift downwards, but the faster emas are ready to cross it-
The 4th Buy- $707.94 was very ill advised -This was a clear breakdown below the 50, well below the declining 8 & 21- There was 1 opportunity as price tried to rebound but still closed below the fast ema to set a stop-loss at the entry level- perhaps $700.00 and have a net-break-even trade-

Being new to trading, and only seeing markets go higher, this trader never knew or had seen the need to set a stop-loss or to learn the basics of trend trading. What were potentially small losses that would have been controlled by setting stops- and 1 ill advised trade on a trend breakdown result in a significant loss .

Taking small losses that one has control over is part of developing a trading system- It means one has a certain amount of control over the trade-
Taking large and uncontrolled losses is demoralizing to one's ego and also to one's bank account.
Taking Trades long Within a defined uptrend - and using pullbacks that stay within the uptrend parameters - as buying opportunities- are potentially good ways to build a substantial position for a longer run.

uSING THE R.O.T. AS A TRADE SIGNAL TO ENTER A LONG TRADE-
uNDERSTAND THAT A DOWNTREND HAS MOMENTUM - AS DOES AN UPTREND. and a 1st R.O.T. IN A DOWNTREND OFTEN DOES NOT MAKE THE START OF A NEW UPTREND-
eXPECT THAT R.O.T. TO FAIL, AND KNOW WHERE YOUR DISCIPLINE SAYS THAT THE TRADE IS NOT WORKING OUT AS ANTICIPATED-
i ILLUSTRATE TAKING AN ENTRY aFTER ONE HAS A CONFIRMED R.O.T. CLOSE ABOVE A NOW UPTURNING EMA.- ASSUMING THE ENTRY IS THE FOLLOWING DAY- WAITING TO ENTER ONLY IF PRICE GOES HIGHER IS JUST SMART- SO SET A BUY-STOP HIGHER THAN THE R.O.T. HIGH- OR AT LEAST ABOVE THE CLOSE . FOR A PARTIAL POSITION-
lOOK AT THE LOW OF THE R.O.T. as a possible stop-loss - depending on how wide the bar is and how much % is at risk- too tight a stop -loss may get hit on average volatility as price explores the breakout R.O.T. validity- If too wide a stop- reduce the position entry to a smaller amount- and only add once the trade is profitable.
In this trade example- If I had an entry - buy stop/limit $675.00 Mar 10, and had a wide stop- I would have likely moved my stop up to the low of my entry bar- after a few days working in my favor- about $650. That would have been hit on the 1st pullback low- but if not, I would have raised it on the red bar low close $651.00 and taken my loss $649 on the Friday open.




Feb 22 - page 8 in this thread- The TSLA downtrend had started - and i highlighted where I thought support levels would occur - simply based on prior basing ranges- Tsla broke through the 650-600 level and got back above that- but if it should break below the recent low - I think it goes down to $450-500 as the next support.



Tech peaked in mid Feb- and the broad tech sector headed lower- but notice on the Performance chart how TSLA magnified the down moves despite CW buying shares on the way down.

[sd]

3-20-21
End of week accounting- It's been a losing week.
Account value:$246,773.49
Value as of 03/19/2021, 04:15 pm, ET but that is after I had a $14k-400 rollover from the Employer's IRA finally clear - so based on deducting that added rollover- account is down to $232k + change- or still about -7.5% from the Feb high close-
I expected a possible drawdown of -5 to -10% on a market pullback hitting and executing stops at lower prices- but the past weeks have been a series of chop-chops- Shifting assets out of tech previously was the smart thing to do, but now I'm seeing weakness starting in the small caps, Banks, industrials-
I just took some small entries back into tech this week- as it has come back slightly- but is too far up from the swing low to make me go in larger unless I see some added upside. Price action is presently weak on these tech stocks- all very similar in a sideways action - all under the 50 ema-
I don't think that the highly over priced tech names- have come back to valuations that appeals to institutional investors-
Holding exposure to foreign em markets AIA,EDUT,EFAS,KURE,KWEB,CHIQ, HTEC
Stopped out on FCG, Portions of XLI, added back some size in MOON, JETS, ITA, small size in ARK funds- GNOM,-apparently holding more CNBS than intended- in both Van accounts- Holding DIA, EFV,IYT,QQQJ (SMALL) , VIOV fULL, XLI.

I had also bought some GM, JNJ,
XLE,AND FCG BOTH HIT RAISED STOPS- Presently no position in either.

It's a difficult choppy market for me to trade- and likely the smarter thing is to simply allow it to settle out and not force trades- The typical approach for me relies on the trend to get trending- and that seems to be rarer lately. I should have been paying more attention to individual trades- use the Riot as an example- I allowed myself to be preoccupied elsewheres instead of monitoring the trade that had turned out to be a winner that turned South and became a loser- That same theme has occurred on several trades -some held overnight- Chopped up by an overnight volatility swing.
considering the EM/China exposure- the present political hard line with China is not helping the China positions- and the reaction of the Chinese gov't to the tech sector's growth and independence is not supporting growth at any price- - New economy companies like Baba and Bidu are the leaders, but somewhat threatening ----and the gov't wants to reign in controls.

[sd]

A Milestone day- Hugged 2 granddaughters and played Hide and Seek- Cops and robbers- - A Week early on vaccine standards, but it's so Good to get back to normal- Next week, the "Family" all get to-gether . So important to get back to "Normal" and embrace those we love.!

[sd]

3-22-21 With an hour to go, premarket NAS futures are up +94 ,S&P slightly, Dow down a small amount- Russel index up .88 according to Bloomberg, Shanghai up +1%
Blockchain down -.75%
Can't trust what the premarket indicates, but at least it's a positive look for Tech.
CAthy Wood came out last week and revised upwards her belief that TSLA will hit 3,000 within 5 years-
I held a small DFEN position over the weekend- Leveraged Defense sector- Also added ITA in the Van account -
I tend to expect that small caps and value will still be the better performers-
IF tech holds a bid, I think it's going to be more selective- something to watch would be those areas that don't recover as well in tech-
I'll be watching how the Ark funds manage today- and see how Asia positions react- The hard line Biden is showing Asia presently is not helping -
Watched some Bloomberg tv over the weekend, and they give some interesting focus on the global markets and interviews-
Had Ray Dalio on- with "concerns" over where we go -calling this present period as a late stage in the economic cycle- but not suggesting an imminent decline...

ElErian writes in Bloomberg about the FEd/bond yield, economic concerns :
"

The risk is significant and rising that the Fed will be less able to tame the bond market any time soon because the high-probability means to do so — active yield-curve control — comes with its own set of significant risks to market functioning, efficient price signaling and pro-productivity/growth allocation of resources throughout the economy.
With this, the paradigm of ample and predictable liquidity could also be at risk, potentially undermining the remunerative wave that so many investors have surfed so successfully.
Finally, the threat of adverse spillover effects for the economy seems limited even though the Main Street-Wall Street disconnect has grown materially in recent years.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

To contact the author of this story:
Mohamed A. El-Erian at [e-mail]


DBA stopped out- It broke support last week, $17.00 level the nominal low of the base- and has presently pulled back to the 50 ema.- Technically, the 50 ema is not a "support" level- as there is no prior support made at this price level.


Energy down, materials down, small cap value down, Russell down -qqq's up-slightly- all sideways -Not very inspiring action on the value fronts-

I'm giving present positions a bit more leeway- I may end up regretting that decision- Presently 53% in cash-
Take VIOV for example-It has fallen down to the 21 ema - I now hold 51 shares just purchased again last week @ $184.66 - I repurchased it belatedly, because I did not enter early in the $172.50 breakout- Presently I have a small loss- relative to the position size of -$400 on a $9K position- approx-4.5% - Had i used the 2nd trailing psar as a stop-loss that would have been hit this am . but I'm trying to not get whipsawed out of the position- yet-
So , the fast ema had a pretty good pullaway on the prior upside momentum move starting Mar 8- That confirmed Breakout would have been the better reentry instead of jumping in late....
I owned this previously, but used a faster time frame and got whipsawed out. as I was seeking to lock in what were relatively small gains.
Today's big red bar looks discouraging- but I would expect this to not penetrate much below the 21 due to the prior support range- We'll see...

Buying AMT on the Breakout-
Also initiating some partial small positions in the recent pullbacks- - all down considerably from the highs- up off the swing lows-but tracking sideways-
This is a decidedly different approach for me- but since the present action is not a major downtrend- but a sideways basing range- the assumption is that a partial Buy here- may see a shallow pullback to get a full position in - and that the swing low will not give way to even lower prices-

I'll use the present sideways range to buy some STARTING POSITIONS ICLN,BUG, PBW,HTEC,ERSX,ryt,QQQJ SMH AND TENATIVELY WILL BUY 2 TSLA TODAY- Viewing the 2nd pullback on the 5 min chart -
$694.42 opening bar high was rejected at 11:30 $694.00- -let's see if it gives a 3rd try to go higher- or drops even lower - On the higher move- bought 1 share $697.70- as it broke out higher-
Looking to add to the position then on a deeper pullback later today. Limit order $670.00 Just to see where it goes-
Can't wait around, too much Blue Sky and Sunshine- Garden calling.


CRM- SAS- mARK bENIOV - lIKE MOST TECH, THIS HAS SOLD OFF- APPEARS TO HAVE HELD UP SIDEWAYS IN A RELATIVELY NARROW BASE- tOOK A 1ST ENTRY ON THIS TODAY- Credit Suisse gave it an upgrade
to $260.00 A wide stop-loss on this would be $204. Risks 6% max. Just a 1/2 position- 5 shares on the entry- Bullish wide price bar with indicators turning up.


TSLA - 5 MIN CHART- WASN'T WATCHING THIS EARLIER- Elected to follow it 11:15- shallow pullback and then it broke higher- I entered with just 1 position to start- and set a limit to get 1 more share should it sell-off today @ 670- (Typo on chart)

Tsla sold off the last hour- My limit filled $670- the low was $669.67 This makes my averaged cost $ $684.35


This rotation back towards tech today seems to be at the cost to the value/small cap- but that area should be the real beneficiary of the actual market recovery-
Morgan Stanley downgraded small caps last week, - and higher rates will make it more difficult on stocks-
Mike Wilson - MS analyst says that many stocks have now made their highs for not only this year, but potentially for several years. and thinks that small caps will have a difficult recovery with higher rates- Just when I thought I was positioned well for the recovery- he dumps the ice bucket challenge on my thinking.

[ira85]

Recent Sells. No Buys in the past week. BE = Break Even, the purchase price
RZV BE 89.82 sold 90.70 +0.98%
RWJ BE 120.63 sold 116.70 -3.26%
RIOT BE 48.83 sold 54.70 +12.02%
PSCD BE 116.74 sold 113.11 -3.11%
RWJ BE 120.63 sold 116.88 -3.11%

Current holdings. CV = Current Value
PSCT 50 shares BE 130.99 cv 139.60 +6.57%
RSP 100 shares BE 130.91 cv 139.87 +6.84%
VIOV 90 shares BE 168.77 cv 175.36 +3.90%

I'm writing this during the day, Monday, 3-22. Just about every security mentioned above has turned down, at least a little in the past week. It seems like the whole market is havig a pull back. I don't want to buy into this weakness. Before I buy replacements for the ones I've sold, I want to see some trend improvement. I suppose that comment should be followed with a “Duh!” -ira

[sd]

Not bad overall IRA, tough market lately!
It is surprising that although the indexes at large were higher- Russel and the value saw more selling.
You're smart to not push trades- It's prudent to see a trend evolving- This sideways action doesn't make any money- yet, I'm thinking we should be able to go higher- m yet perhaps due to the concerns about yields, we've topped out for a time? What is the new catalyst to drive the markets higher?
Impatience to force a trade loses money- and being too wide on a stop-loss doesn't seem to help much either -at least for myself that' is how it's evolving-
Remember the market wisdom to "Go Away in May"? Perhaps we're just a month early this year?
Adapting to change - or recognizing when the process is occurring and electing to be a bystander during the shake out retains one's cash - Trends should have persistence-
There are a number of variables in play right now that makes it difficult to pick any winner - Interest rates, overpriced tech- overpriced value? Overpriced small caps?
I don't know where or when this settles out....
The Bond market debate - RE:Cramer- believes the Tech rally is on hold ...

[sd]

3-23-21
Futures flat -

i SELDOM BOTHER TO COMPARE THE WEEKLY CHARTS- And perhaps I need to do so to gain the larger perspective.

I just made a recent reentry in VIOV at a very high $184.67 thinking it was about to go even higher- when it had just peaked the prior week - 51 shares so I'm down -$500 presently-
It had a recent surge on the daily- a nice pullaway from the ema's - and I jumped back into it belatedly as i also reallocated into a more standardized portfolio- including the Dow, Industrials, Transports among others- Thinking these will be the winning sectors as we get further into the recovery- Eventually, I need to have a core portfolio that I use as investments.

VIOV- Small cap 600 - value- This has been in a steady uptrend since NOV. AND IS UP OVER A 100% SINCE mAR 23- as a market shift into Value started even as Tech was still peaking-
As seen on this weekly chart, VIOV is trending well, holding above the 7 weekly ema (35 Daily ema-) and the higher pull away made 2 weeks earlier- was a momentum jump away from the ema, and the following week the pullback looks to be a reversion to the typical trend-
Will VIOV continue to work as the markets are shifting assets and some selling of small caps has occurred. Is this a possible peak in small caps? Pullbacks -Buying dips to the 21 ema would have been ideal as an entry position.
We still haven't closed below the 30 ema on the Daily- and so I'll experiment with using the weekly psar as my stop-loss -




Looking to see if the TSLA move higher yesterday can hold- I took the entry as a trade - not as an investment-

Post 10 am- Markets flat- AMT, CRM trades up slightly - DFEN trade down and ITA- TSM - sideways basing
The DFEN trade as a leveraged play reversed on my entry- It moves more volatile, thought it was about to break out higher- saucer/ formation- Got it wrong-
Today it's testing that prior low- and I should have used the pullback on the entry as a 1st stop- FOR THE LESSER LOSS!
I feel I'm allowing myself to get sloppy in cutting a losing trade because we're caught in this sideways and non-trending action
taking smaller entries is the right approach- or just sit on one's hands. What looks promising one day is flat the next.

[sd]

3-23 mid day- Took the Loss on DFEN-
AMT trade up above $229.00 working higher- Now that's a change of pace! TSLA testing the gap below- not a concern-yet




EOD- Everything I own is in the RED today-except AMT - Came back in after hours to see how the Day finished after talks by Yellen and Powell - ideally would have reassured the markets. Apparently not.
Previously, a diversified portfolio would see some things down, others up - but it appears that not being in the markets at all may be the best course of intentional inaction.
I didn't hear what the take-away from the Fed was yet- ideally will be discussed

[ira85]

I had a position in VIOV but it stopped out yesterday. Looking at that chart above makes me wonder about the criteria we are using to judge a holding a failure. Looking at the VIOV chart it seems the stock was progressing very nicely. It was moving up and to the right with only brief and shallow pullbacks. It's most recent price high was 186.50. Then it went down to 176. A drop of 5.6%. It had another brief pullback in late January and then promptly bounced back and continued upward. I think I'd be satisfied if all my picks did as well as VIOV, i.e. advance, stop and catch your breath, then advance, repeat. It will be interesting to see if VIOV resumes it's upward path in the next few days, like it did in January. Could it be that our fail criteria is telling us to sell when the stock is just catching it's breath? Maybe just normal day to day noise is triggering sell signals sometimes. What do you think? -ira

[sd]

"I had a position in VIOV but it stopped out yesterday. Looking at that chart above makes me wonder about the criteria we are using to judge a holding a failure. Looking at the VIOV chart it seems the stock was progressing very nicely. It was doing pretty much what I wanted. It was moving up and to the right with only brief and shallow pull backs. It's most recent price high looks like it got up to 186.50. Then it went down to 176. A drop in share price of 10.5 points, 5.6%. It had another brief pullback in late January. It promptly bounced back and continued upward. I think I'd be satisfied if all my picks did as well as VIOV. It will be interesting to see if it resumes it's upward path in the next few days, like it did in January. Could it be that our fail criteria is telling us to sell when the stock is doing just fine? Maybe just normal day to day noise is triggering sell signals sometimes. What do you think? -ira"


Quite honestly, I don't know at this point- i tend to rely a lot on moving averages as the basis to identify how price is doing within a trend- It's a fairly simplistic approach, and works well during trending periods- I have used the tighter approach with stops that worked well during strongly trending markets- until recently in Feb- - Identifying the market rotation across the indexes - out of tech and continuing into small caps and value and industrials seemed to be the directional play- but everything appears to be for sale today.
I think the principle of trend identification absolutely works to keep us on the correct side of the trade- Does a pullback to the 21 ema means we should exit the trade when others would take that as a buying opportunity-that truly is the definition of buying the Dips- and that has worked in the past - It really depends on where we entered the initial trade-

I think it is good trading discipline to enter a trade Long in an uptrend- with the expectation that the uptrend continues-
I made a late reentry - where you made a much better earlier entry- Your entry cost stopped out for a small loss or a small profit on VIOV- because it pulled back - I don't think you go wrong when you protect that initial profit from becoming a loss- the opportunity is that one can always reenter-
But since you also are presently trading with some size- I think it is doubly important that you use stops to protect your entry principal from a larger loss-
What is the merit in allowing a stop that is significantly wider than your entry-?

An Entry presumes that Price is making a move higher- and ideally makes an intial Close that indicates it is indeed doing so- Perhaps it also has a higher volume ands is moving up out of a base period.
Or, it is also already trending, and has simply made a pause and a slight sideways or pullback action- -m the Key ingredient is that the uptrend is intact, and that price - and the Entry- follow the uptrend- On a decline- how much leeway one allows depends on whether that put's one's once positive entry into a losing position- The 1st loss is usually the lowest loss- and so taking action when Price fails to perform as expected is part of one's "discipline- Perhaps that failur of price to perform with a Close that violates one's expectations for the trade is all that matters-
I often refer to the Close below the fast ema as a reason to raise the tighter stop-loss- it suggests that the momentum of the uptrend may be seeing a pullback- or even a stop towards the upside.

I totally do Not get this present market's rotation and larger declines across many sectors- Tech I understand- still overvalued- But it also appears that many sectors that are on the "Value" spectrum are also now being sold off- Energy, Small cap value, etc. Perhaps in the market's eye, these too have had too much of a run up- and will also sell-off significantly. Perhaps it's the higher Bond return- It doesn't matter what the reason is, what matters is that the investments are not differentiating into winning sectors and losing sectors- Weakness abounds....
So, sit on cash, raise stops and take small controlled losses as this works it's way through the markets.

Smart to take the stop- You cannot go wrong on taking a narrow loss - or getting to Breakeven in a trade that fails to gain the expected upside momentum- after one's entry-
I've been guilty of giving this chop sideways price action more room- that has ultimately resulted in a greater % loss than I would normally allow. My mistake- It is smart to take the tighter loss on a failure of price to perform as one expects- and - Importantly- REDUCE the position size !-
Identifying that the Markets are Not trending- Is also important-

It also seems Clear to me that when it is so difficult to find an area that outperforms, then perhaps it's a good time to not be forcing one's desires for success onto the market-
Raise cash- be patient- do not force trades

[ira85]

Further my comments from my post a few hours ago. I'm looking at the VIOV chart and I just noticed how different the 4 hour chart is from the daily chart. The 4 hour gives a picture from mid-September to mid-March. The daily chart gives us a picture of the past year. The full year picture shows lots more problems than the 4 hour chart of the last 6 months. For example the 50 SMA dips below the 200 SMA on the left side of the chart. The 50 SMA doesn't get back above the 200 till it's in the middle of the chart. The moving averages are all over the left half of the chart. The primary trend (up until the past 2 weeks) is not nearly as clear on this daily chart as it is on the 4 hour chart. But both the 4 hour and the daily show us something bad has happened in the past 2 weeks. The daily shows price has gapped down and is well below the fast SMA. The 4 hour shows that price has fallen below the 50 SMA. So both charts give us bad news, something bad is happening to VIOV. This shows I need to give a little more thought before speaking. Reminds me of something I heard a long time ago, “Your ears never get you into trouble.” -ira

[sd]

3-24-21-Woke Way too early in the am- but a bit of insomnia and brooding over stops- and perhaps initiating losses today. It's healthy to Speak your mind- btw- and the Question about Where to enter a trade- and when to exit- is indeed the #1 question we all must ask- and ultimately decide what works for each of us. I will borrow from Dan @ SMM- "THE ENTRY IS EVERYTHING"
a GOOD entry is one that ideally meets one's criteria to enter-assumes one is trading With the trend - and allows one to set a reasonably well defined and controlled stop-loss- When to exit similarly should protect profits and reduce a loss with a stop in place- Some traders are mentally, emotionally, and financially prepared to trade off a Weekly chart- and willing to make value Buys at price declines- and hold for wide swings in the Value of their "investment" - even buying the deeper dips - to "Build a Position" Ala Cramer's investment mantra. The belief there is that you never know if your initial entry is the winning entry- and if you have the 'conviction' that you want to own a particular stock, You enter initially with a partial position - 1/4- add to the position on a decline- another 1/4- add again on a deeper decline- as needed to reduce your cost basis- If you took that approach on a weekly chart- you could be in for quite a Ride-
Minervini will tell you that is the road to ruin- because it is an approach based on the assumption that you bought something the market thinks is of lesser value- that's why it's declining- and your hope is that one day the market will see it's true potential and reward your buying a falling knife as prescient.-The thinking that everything will eventually come back if one holds it long enough- is the fallacy there-
AS You noted by the chart reviews you made- the price action indeed appears troubled.
Something did change from the Prior post with VIOV- on the Weekly chart- Yesterday's low Close at the weekly 7 ema generated a Weekly PSAR Sell signal.
A cautionary note on the PSAR - It's useful as a signal often when not to get in too soon- but as seen on the weekly chart- a wide probing weekly bar higher generated an early PSAR BUY signal back in April $100.00 that was a rally on the daily- that week- but it then gave a $40.00 price decline over the following 2 weeks, - and psar as a stop-loss was down near $70- so that would have been a 30% loss had price continued to decline- So PSAR and the Weekly swings are too wide for myself and the average "trader" - but it's useful to define the prevailing trend by viewing the Weekly
The Trend is still technically an uptrend-on the Weekly- and the indicators are now showing a 1st initial weakness compared to the recent periods- The amount of price movement between the 7 ema and the 50ema is about $35.00 and price had made a $185.00 high recently- So $185- $135.00 50 ema - that's a lot of leeway in allowing Price to decline by using a weekly chart by itself- Thus, I don't typically use the weekly- and prefer the narrower views using the daily, the 4 hr, sometimes the 2 hr for a close up view of price action intradays-
WEEKLY CHART : nOTICE the Mar 8 highest volume weekly bar on a Gap pullaway from the fast ema- That qualifies I would think as the Climax high volume move topping the prior weeks' high volume move.


The Daily chart-


tHE 4 HR VIEW -


4 hr longer view - w/trend line






tHE 4 HR CHART GAVE THE IDEAL Opportunity for me to tighten a stop-loss to the low of that bar and to reduce the potential loss from my whipsaw entry.
My complacency is getting the price reaction it deserves. A much deeper loss!

The 2 hour chart shows 4 price bars perday- including the failure bar low Close on the entry- That was opportunity #1 to set a higher stop-loss- followed the next day by a lower open- higher Close day- a stop under the Low of that bar would have resulted in a manageable loss- vs allowing price to breakdown.

[sd]

3-24-21 Futures are all somewhat higher- Premarket- See what happens by 10 am-
I'm hoping for a bit of a recovery move higher to get some losing positions with higher stops-
Part of my stock buying last week was the belief that I'd get an entry position near a price low and be well positioned - Saw some promising signs of prices initially moving up- but no conviction ....Even value and cyclicals, energy are all down-
Heard Cramer talking about the plethora of SPACS that are brought to markets diluting the
Opportunity to adjust stops higher -
Europe down on Covid. Asia lower as well.
Last week I took a small position in TSM- a major Semi mfg-as well as a starting position in SMH- the semi index. Semis are in short supply, Both TSM and SMH had seen selling pressures off their highs-
I viewed this basing as an opportunity to get an early entry- but TSM tested it's prior swing lows - and so my stop-loss has to be below the low of this base. The Risk is a relatively small -4.7% - Not happy with the lack of recovery as some semis- including competitor INTC are higher.



TSM stop executed $112.47
TSLA STOP -2 HR PSAR $643.00 Raised to $650 intraday- taken out...
AMT SROP RAISED $225.50
VIOV - SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS ENERGY GETS A BID HIGHER TODAY-

TECH SELLING OFF ....10 AM -
Trading acct- stops hit CRM, TSM, AMT
TSLA stops raised to $650 on ARKK weakness-
Set stops on all positions based on the low of the day-
Recovery in VIOV- as Banks, Energy, industrials seeing upside moves .
Account value has lost substantially in this downturn- So seeking to retain profits for 2021-
Tempted to add to some losing positions with today's lows as a stop- looking positive on the faster time frame charts- but certainly Not on the Daily.
Yellen and Powell talking with senators today- potentially reassuring the markets.

VIOV is putting in an INSIDE BAR today- Higher than yesterday's Close- and lower than it's open
VIOV is comprised of small cap value stocks from different industry groups- Some of those industry groups-are rallying today, and so VIOV also has seen a higher open and is higher presently .




losing Momentum




Bought 100 XLU with a $1 stop-loss using the 1 HR chart- Price is testing the Mar 16 High-
Viewing the Daily chart,
Utilities are seen as being defensive , typically not very wide price swings- very liquid,.

2 pm- watching price actions in Energy- XLE, FCG, SLX to initiate some early R.O.T. entries -but generally early based on the Daily chart.
Added to the XLI position.

XLE -Energy - A 1ST R.O.T. with price presently just presenting a higher Daily bar after 6 days below a declining fast 7 ema. 25 shares partial entry XLE $49.54 .
Viewing the 2 hr chart as the basis for the early R.O.T with a stop using the 2 hr psar $47.50 (trailing 1 psar value.) I'm taking a small entry here to also provide a small loss should this not work in my favor.


XLU


Things weakened in Tech -2% Nasdaq-
Russell small caps -2.35%
DIA barely a gain

S&P -.55%

VIOV lost as well -1.27 after making a try higher initially- hit my $168.50 stop-loss-
Reminder to Self- The Best Loss is the Early loss!

Good day to be over.






David Keller CMT- discusses small cap weakness- and based on the chart analysis he thinks we could see further erosion -
Note that
www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcPFz2SV9BQ