SD- 2021- ACTIVE MANAGEMENT FOR GREATER SUCCESS IN 2021

[sd]

an Opinion ON the conventional wisdom of "BUYING THE DIPS" -

IMO It's a very broad statement, and can be dangerous to the financial health of the individual investor - It definitely applies to broad index investing -but not necessarily the individual stock portfolio an individual investor may have selected. I think you could even argue that buying the Tech sell-off in 2001 and buying that Dip - SUPPOSE YOU HAD put the majority of your funds into the booming tech sector in 1998,99,2000- and held a "BUY THE DIP" mindset-
Look where it took you-Particularly if you were retiring at that time and wanted to Boost your nest Egg. It took 14 years for the QQQ index purchases made in 1999-2000 to get back to breakeven- and likely 5 years following to get back to real purchasing power after inflation.
I think it also assumes your Cost basis is in place at a lower price, and you are adding to an already winning position- not adding to a losing position.
For example- the Tech sector has now given up All of it's gains for 2021- and if you started a position in Tech in 2021, you are at breakeven or at a loss.
The "Buy the Dip" assumes that the trend will resume and go higher- so, as prices decline and go below the 50 ema, they certainly get cheaper than the initial investment- but is it smart to be adding with this method?
It can be argued that Tech is highly extended and overvalued- Notice how extended the 20 year chart appears to be with the recent tech momentum of the past year surging higher- well above any typical slope- And Tech periodically has given 30% pullbacks- Is this the start of a deeper tech pullback?
Buying the present Tech dip because price got less expensive could be very costly- Particularly as a rotation appears to be underway- And- when it comes to individual stocks -we may think we own the next best thing to sliced bread- and are ahead of the crowd- but if the crowd doesn't agree, we can lose substantially more than the average index pullback, as hundreds of companies go bankrupt or fall from areas in market favor.
If a typical 10% pullback is to be expected, I don't want my brand new position to drop -10% in value- If Price is holding above the daily emas and trending higher- how much room one gives it to fluctuate is up to the individual-
For myself, I'm seeking to retain my gains- and reduce potential losses- For me, that's a more aggressive approach than an investor would apply- But I've still got profits on the year because I gained in Tech positions, and have lost less than I gained- and now out of Tech- If it's declining and below the fast ema, it's a crap shoot- I made a decent gain on the ARK funds this year- but both in and out- multiple times-



Value has finally come into favor in recent months, and Value stocks, infrastructure, and recovery -back to normal investments are all in favor-
Finding areas that have broad support will see the market ideally higher on the year- unless the jitters about the higher bond rates and inflation fears shake the markets.
Watching that sector rotation, and allocating into those areas that are coming in favor- and underweighting those that are overvalued and out of favor seems a prudent approach-
Is this past week's volatility overdone? Perhaps. Hopefully we see a higher move back this coming week- but what the market chooses to reward is important.
Staying Long those sectors that held up well during this decline are likely the market leaders- and those sectors hardest hit may continue to be hit hard-
We've had an historic market recovery this year to all time highs- Markets do not continue to go up, but eventually revert to the mean -

If a typical average return on the market is 10%, but that's an average Look at the Tech outperformance to the market since Jan 2020- 2-1 + but it was much more.
Notice that the recent decline is a lot larger in Tech than the market-
Buying the dip - IMO- is not prudent unless the Dip has made an upturn and shows signs of resuming the uptrend- Buying Early is Buying wrong.
Will I repurchase Tech? Yes on an uptrending move- but with a stop-loss just below that turn higher- as downtrends also include periods of price trying to turn higher- and failing.



the past 3 weeks price performance- Q's,SPY,IWM,VIOV

tHIS CHART SHOWS WHERE ONE DOES NOT WANT TO BE PUTTING MONEY- INSTEAD SHIFTING THOSE ASSETS INTO AREAS OUTPERFORMING.
Notice that Tech is leading the decline- and the SPY and Smallcaps are also weak- but a small subsector Small cap value, and energy are outperforming

[sd]

Viewing Performance for 2021 YTD- The chart reflects the account performance in 2021 - Jan was a good month- Feb was OK - but it gave back a lot of intramonth gains made earlier in the month. And March has not been kind at this point, but I hope to turn that account direction higher by the end of the month with better selections. Change than downtrend to an uptrending higher slope. I had an intramonth Feb high over 250k, so I have given back more than what is reflected in this month by month graph-


The lesser gain in FEB- although it was a net profitable month,and had been considerably higher, but I failed to capture those gains with better trades and tighter stops. March illustrates a relatively small net loss as the markets got choppy and selling off- A red week to begin the month I hope to turn positive.



This puts my YTD return at +6.5% , so I'm outperforming the Spy & QQQ's and well ahead of buying back into TSLA or ARKK on this pullback.

COMPARING OVER THE SAME TIME FRAME- STARTING IN JAN 2021
THE SPY +4%; THE QQQ'S -0.20%; ARKK -6%; TSLA -18% (DOWN 30% FROM THE $900.00 HIGH)




I did miss out on the big market recovery rally Friday- I will review charts Sunday for positions i plan to reenter Monday, or those on my watchlist-
My DBA Buy-stop order never filled - and so one criteria I want to see is price Closing above a fast ema- and if that fast ema is in a downtrend- that 1st Close is suspect- and requires a stop below the low of that day or the prior sell bar. Whatever causes a stock or ETF to sell-off is not negated by a 1 or 2 day attempt to go back higher. An oversold bounce- perhaps, but the downward momentum may not be easily reversed to go higher.

Periods like this require more objective analysis, and caution- perhaps only partial entries and expect a test back- and then an add .

The SMM website has a number of videos that they present for free- and on the Forum several members like to view price pulling back to the 50 ema as a good pullback entry- I tend to disagree- I want to enter After price has Closed above those pullbacks lows and made a solid move back to the upside-
Another approach some use- is to Wait for the Cup n handle to complete, (O'Neil style) and a breakout to occur- and then to enter- -or wait for the breakout, and then a pullback retest, and Buy the continuation move- That's worth being aware of if one missed a breakout- but there's a lot of meat in that early formation off the low of a pullback in an uptrend.

I prefer the more tactical approach- to minimize a loss on price weakness, and reenter on price strength- The variable is what is the Volatility at any point in time in what one is holding or pursuing? Is the prospective trade in an uptrend, downtrend, or a sideways Range? These are the 3 primary variables one has to recognize and identify - and adjust one's trading approach to-
I want to be long in trades that are trending- higher- Period- Not second guessing when a decline will reach a bottom- and buying a pullback that is going lower and then lower. Nominal pullbacks - 4-5% - to the 30 ema are common- look for the upmove from there. Busting the 50 ema is a clear violation of an uptrend - and reason to have reduced the position and to be a seller- Regain a new position on the uptrend resuming- or look to find the better candidates and sectors in the market- because you can be assured, when one segment falls, another is rising.

[ira85]

Buy the dips? “Buy the dips” depends on whether you're investing as a buy and hold guy or a frequent trader. The buy and hold guy goes through a lot of due diligence research before buying. His list of potential buys is short. The long term guy has to give his investment some time to work. He can't be selling after one week. The trader can. If the investment isn't meeting his expectations, he can sell quickly and cut losses. The long term guy builds his success on doing thorough research and seldom making mistakes. Hence the ideal holding period for him is forever. For the trader the ideal holding period is as long as its working. The trader can drop an investment in a heartbeat if the trade goes against him. The long term guy can't buy the dips. It violates the way he does business. The trader can, but a dip means he's looking at something being sold off. He might buy the dip if he sees lots of good things about the stock at hand, but it would make more sense to buy the bounce than the dip.

The trader wants to cut losses, but also wants to let his winners run. Selling too quickly would cause some good investments to be sold prematurely when they still have more upside to do. The challenge is to reach the best balance of cutting losses quickly AND not selling very many that still have a lot of upside in them.

So back to buy the dips. In late January we had a couple of days with big down moves in SPY. That was followed by steady up movement for two weeks. So buying the dip in late January worked.

February 19 Tom Bowley wrote, “I believe the bull market vs. bear market debate has ended.” He went on to say he believes we are in a secular bull market and we are going higher. Then February 25 another round of selling started. In his February 27 article Bowley repeated his opinion we are in a secular bull market. He also explained primary and secondary movements in terms of Dow Theory. He said we should expect secondary movements from time to time but they usually don't cause a change in the primary movement. Right now slowing momentum is a problematic secondary movement he wrote.

I like Bowley's clear thinking and writing. I wanted to post something he wrote about the big picture, the secular bull market. It looks to me that the biggest down move in SPY over the past two months was Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday last week, 3 days, March 2, 3, 4. That was met by a big up day on Friday with wild volatility. Monday should be interesting. I don't have much cash, so I won't be buying much of anything to start the day. -ira

[sd]

3-7-21 Lots of good articles @ stockcharts.com/articles/ Numerous articles available - only a few are restricted to Members.
I think I would like to eventually become that Long Term investor- Check out the markets just once a month, make a few adjustments as needed- and do other things for the next 30 days. What would be required -Perhaps a trend following method similar to Brian Livingston's sector/ETF approach.

#1- the initial investment would have to get into positive territory and stay there- That would require an up trending market during the initial entry-
A good entry- perhaps off a pullback low would be ideal- with the pullback low becoming the initial stop-loss- and the uptrend resuming. A wide pullback to the 50 ema - and a successful move higher would be that ideal entry Close to the POF.

#2 Split the position- Once a stop-loss gets higher than the entry cost- and some room for slippage- trail 2 stops - as an investor, perhaps I would focus on a bit wider moving averages- the "Fast" ema would be a 10, a slower would be a 30, followed by a 50 , and then a 100. Using a slower 10 ema would give price more room for potentially slowing down in momentum, shallow pullbacks- Initially looking for the stop using the 30 ema to get above the break even, split the stop-loss to trail -1/2 at the 30- and 1/2 at the 50 -perhaps adjust 1x a week - Or just trail at the 50 if Price makes a Close under the 30 ema.

Since this past week had a solid recovery day Friday, and a good jobs report, a stimulus bill passed the Senate- Monday should bode well for implementing some new positions- I think any Tech positions should be on a short leash - just my opinion.
I'll be looking for the infrastructure ,steel, AG, commodity and similar recovery basics to do well -Small cap Value for certain-

Bowley posted a new article -pt 2 on Divergences- Indicators-as he points out -are secondary and should not be followed directly as Price action is the primary indicator- What I have found with both the PPO and MACD - a drop below the 0 line - once it reaches it's furthest bar of decline below ), and then starts to return to the 0 line is often an early indication of a lessening of the Selling and could precede an early entry- and possibly not wait for it to cross above the 0 line.
Indicators are all open to interpretation- useful as a point of reference-

Bowley just posted an article on reading divergences from the PPO indicator-

Martin Pring's article illustrates the Energy sector gaining while Tech is losing- As i understand what he wrote- he expects Tech to make another rally, but then take a deeper downturn, as sector rotation continues-

The Sector spotlight- uses RRG to determine sector rotation is also interesting. Julius Kempenauer gives an overview of the primary sectors-
In this past week's issue, about 26 minutes in the video, he discusses being with Tom Bowley and "discovering" the outperformance group of small cap ETFs vs large caps-



An overview lessons on thematic investing- interesting 30 minute presentation, tests.
www.globalxetfs.com/intro-to-thematic-investing-course/

Some of these disruptive techs initiatives had big moves and perhaps are now getting repriced with Tech-
Even if prices are declining does not mean that these technologies are not going to be good to invest in the future- at lower prices.

[sd]

This being Sunday, a lot can happen- Futures for the Dow, S& P & NAS all up 1.5% or more- Russel +2% -
Asian mkts down slightly
Reading about ETF fund flows- Vanguard EM received more monies last week to gain exposure to the foreign/asian mkts-
I want to continue to have exposure to the EM, China- I've had some good trades in AIA, KWEB, but have to be concerned with
the continued sell-off .
AIA- Large cap Asia 50 has been an outperformer -(Blue line) but notice that these days, it seems everything is highly correlated- As goes the US markets, so go the Asian markets.

AIA is at a critical point - A DBL bottom in Price has occurred, - if the SPY (purple line) can rally further this week, AIA will also do so as well. Note that all the indexes made an upturn Friday.




The Spy now contains a number of Tech stocks- TSLA the most recent Add to the index this year- and now down -30%
Tech makes up 27% of the S&P positions, but YTD :

[sd]

3-8-21 Nas Futures down sharply ahead of the open- -185 Spy-20, DOW-3

With the Nas clearly under more selling pressure. Large cap Tech -qqq's down -1% Large Cp China FXI also down -2% premarket.
Nas looks to give back it's Friday's gains- That would be called a Bull Trap for those with a mindset that jumped in to not miss the next leg higher of the Tech Rally....

Tech weakness continues lower, even after the stimulus package is approved- As tech is getting repriced by the markets- perhaps this reflects the market's wake up call to the over the top excess valuations given to many very speculative companies fresh to market...
This tech weakness is reflected in the ARKK fund- a huge outperformer- up 140% in 2020,
ARKK had a substantial -44% decline from it's Feb high in 2020 to the March lows- it also went -38% below it's 50 ema at that pullback.

ARKK had a Feb 2021 high of 159.70 with a Friday Close of 117.07- a decline of $42.63 or- -27% YTD off the highs.

It Closed Dec 31 2020 $124.49 , so it is negative on the year- and down lower than the Nas index itself- despite CW buying TSLA and some of the other holdings as their prices got cheaper.

A next lower Price support level would be at the $100.00 price level seen in the range in Sept- Nov. during a prior period of market weakness.


Viewing the past 3 months in ARKK- The transition out of an uptrend where price was holding above the rising moving averages - and all in proper ascending order- was initially called out as Price failed to hold above the 50 ema, and made 4 closes below the 50 ema.
The 2 blue bars were an attempt to regain the uptrend , but failed- The fast 7 ema and now the 30 has broken through the 50 ema- with price leading lower. A recovery in ARKK would be a bottom for the Nas, as it is widely held by institutions and individuals.
A recovery in ARKK would likely have to see a basing with successive Closes above the now declining 7 ema to turn the decline . That would not be accomplished with a single close--above the fast ema-



CW HAS BEEN BUYING MORE TSLA AS PRICE HAS DECLINED-
TSLA has not made a Close above the fast ema for 4 weeks ! Potentially the high volume on this chart could be a Climax volume, but price has Closed inside the 1st Support range-
2nd support is the $450-400 Price level. Consider TSLA the Bellweather for the EV markets.




Will wait until 10 am to see where the market's direction is heading- looking to add to the value, steel, commodity positions .

I would recommend the free subscription (30 days) to www.stockmarketmentor.com and take advantage of the many trading education videos.

Good stuff on moving averages, trend lines- and Volatility squeezes-
He also uses Bollinger bands to identify the squeeze consolidations - I haven't used them for years- but his video is very instructive- I tend to want to keep things uncluttered chart wise- but will add some BB on some future charts .

ADDED VIOV on the breakout- China down -3% not buying yet.
Buying- added 100 XLE to existing position. adding back 100 KRE
Watching GE- already a position - opened at a new high , watching it pullback on the 5 min chart- will look to add 100 on the 5 min swing low. I'm trailing a Buy-Stop above an already declining 5 min bar that has completed- as each bar completes and goes lower, I will lower the buy-stop to reduce my entry cost.



PRICE MOVED HIGHER- HIT MY BUY-STOP- MY ORDER EXECUTED $13.97



As I'm looking to get back into the markets, I think the recovery theme plays out - still cautious on Tech, but I'm going back in to the other market segments that are value, commodity, recovery, financials - small cap and regional banks. Lots of money to be spent during a recovery back to normal.
I'm not only buying breakouts, but some pullbacks-
DBA in this shallow pullback - making a base here-


Transports breaking sharply higher- IYT -adding a position here 50



PSCF- Small cap Financials- Buying 100 on the breakout in an uptrend.


Broad RealEstate VNQ coming off a pullback low- Buying 100 here-

Buying 150 SLX- Steel on the break out higher-


In the trading account adding trades in the steel industry- STLD, CMC BOTH MAKING BREAKOUTS TO NEW HIGHS,,
JETS AS A TRADE.
CNBS AS A TRADE
NAIL - 3X HOMEBLDRS TRADE




Comparing GUNR & PDBC - PDBC appears to be less volatile when viewed over multiple durations and also possibly a better performer recently.



Notice that the red line is less volatile than the Blue line- PDBC was one of the investment choices followed by Brian Livingston in one of his portfolio models .



In the Trading account, I had bought earlier in the day BDRY -16; CMC +63; cnbs -86; jets +15; stld +114; NAIL - 55; and then OLED -7 at the Close.

The CNBS trade was generated by a bounce higher off the 50 day ema that was made yesterday - and today's initial move up- it's the loser into the Close-
The Daily chart and the 4 hr chart are still bearish on CNBS, and the 2 hr chart view presented a potential early entry that failed to sustain itself through the day. We'll see if the yesterday deeper low will hold-
The last Trade of the day was a 1st move in OLED pointed out in the SSM forum.

[ira85]

On Monday, 3-09-21 the NYSE had
Advances 1,983
Declines 1,281
New Highs 278
New Lows 9 Only 9 new lows out of 3,362 issues traded ! Wow! That indicates stocks were being bought, accumulated, not sold. I followed the herd.
Bought:
RZV 55 shares @ 90.70 RZV closed at 90.86. Essentially break even.
RWJ 40 shares @ 116.70 RWJ closed at 116.16, a 0.5% loss.
RIOT 60 shares @ 48.84 RIOT closed at 52.16

The whole account which includes PSCT, RSP, and VIOV was up 0.22% today.

RIOT closed @ 52.16 for a 33.81% gain on the day. Unfortunately I bought late in the day and missed most of that gain.
RWJ is in a very nice upward trend and finished above the fast ema.
RZV got a red bar on the last bar of the day. But at the close the price was above the fast ema and the fast ema was above the 20 day ema on a daily chart. It's been moving up nicely since October with only 3 brief, shallow pullbacks.

On a day with a decidedly up trending day I was a bit surprised I was so close to break even. Maybe that's common and I'm not used to paying attention. -ira

[sd]

3.10.21
I also had a slow day yesterday- flat overall- Tech was the driver yesterday- but not today.
I had posted some yesterday pm- but apparently shut the computer down without submitting- I missed yesterday's big tech run- had a vet appointment early in the am- didn't jump into tech until the end of the day- spent the day in the yard- and getting the boat prepped- Did fill out the Van IRA 100% with some small ARK fund positions, bought China, emerging mkts- and a blend of other funds-
Tech rally was strong, and that's where the markets money was rushing in- - will miss the market's open today, as the boat is loaded, and we're heading off for a bit of fishing at the local lake- supposed to get to 75 here today, and blue skies and sunshine!
Have a prosperous day!

3 pm- Great 1st day on the Lake! Fishing was slow, but it was fishing! Dow is up 1.5%- I did take a DIA position this week, also XLI - Nas up small after yesterday's rally- Russel over +2% so small caps doing well- It was pointed out by M Santolli this pm that the small cap 600 is up tremendously and well extended above the 200 day ma- and then noted that Gamestop is included as one of those 600 stocks!
The small ARK positions appear to be holding- but I'm not overly trusting of Tech as having made a bottom.Today's tech pullback is understandable after yesterday's big run higher- but I'll use today's pullback lows as a line in the sand for a stop on those entries I just made-
GE apparently disappointed today on a merger announcement- I've been adding to the position, so now tightened a stop to get out at Breakeven- if it pulls back slightly more.
I see TSLA also succumb to the down pressure today and close lower- than yesterday- typical of overall Tech, but possibly a concern to only see a 1 day recovery.
Jeremy Siegel thinks the value sector continues to lead the markets higher- and the Tech sector goes to the back burner in 2021
www.cnbc.com/2021/03/09/nasdaq-rebound-will-unravel-whartons-jeremy-siegel-warns.html
Almost a .75% gain today- Not to be sneezed at - Multiply that by 260 trading days- and I'll start buying Fla real estate for my future condo!
Geez - a 0.22 tepid daily return is actually a 57% return annualized! Not too shabby! Do that every day and you're talking real gains!

Consider if you could achieve a 0.22% gain every week, you'd be beating the market average return with +11.44% - so a 0,22 gain in 1 day is Stellar!

[sd]

Futures up -across the indexes, and Nas up big +250- I'll be adding to Tech today as it will be making the upturn needed- I'll be using limit orders , and -if not filled- wait until after 10 am to see if the opening surge higher has strength.
In the IB trading acct- I sold OLED yesterday as it had pulled back from the open- Locked in the gain, and looking to Buy it again today as a trade- using the buy-stop entry with limit- I also am using a feature available on IB's platform- Once I set my order to Buy- I can attach both a Limit Sell order and a Stop-loss order to the trade- All before owning the stock or ETF.
IB also allows me - in a Roth account- to trade leveraged etfs-
I presently hold a profitable position in NAIL- that's the leveraged Home Builders index-
Since Tech again appears to be having a solid opening, this is the follow through day that Tech perhaps gets some oversold Buying- and credible moves higher- So QLD is a stop-limit trade $111.50-$114.00
Reportedly Asian markets are stabilizing more- so I will be adding to the EEM positions if they move higher-
I had been adding to GE and it now appears to be coming back to below my cost of entry- Markets didn't like it's recent sale or merger made. so I will likely be a sell for a net loss


Yes- took a loss on GE as it broke the trend line-
Doing a fair amount of purchasing- including China- I also bought back into INDA- looking at the daily chart- INDA continues to be volatile with drops back to the 50 ema , but is on a steady uptrend-
I also went to ETFDB.com-
While I hold the large energy ETF XLE, I'm going to add an MLP to the mix- I'm looking for a Global fund- not just the US- chose MLPX-

Also took a start in GUSH in the trading account- potential break higher today

Nice recovery in the Van account mid day- from yesterday's tepid response. All the indexes higher- Nas up 2.5% leading with the Russel 1.79%
I did add back QQQJ today-



Nice Gain for IRA with RIOT!

Came inside to catch the last 30 minutes of market action- the nas held it's gains +2.59% pre close-
I doubled my Asia large caps AIA

[ira85]

SD, I know you are well aware of the special risks and rewards potential with leveraged funds. GUSH is a good example. Four months ago (November) GUSH was trading for $20. Right now it's almost $90. Exciting? Well in the 5 months (June to October) before that big gain, GUSH went from 65 to 20. GUSH will make your pulse go up. It's so volatile it may be a challenge to set helpful limits. -ira

[sd]

Thanks for the heads up IRA - I'm setting stops on all stock and leveraged positions, but not so much on the conventional ETFs-
GUSH is certainly choppy- I'll be using the 2 hr time frame PSAR $81.22 below the 2hr 30 ema which has stayed outside the price volatility during March.

[sd]

3.12.21 It's another 200 point move for the Nas today premarket- but buckle the seat belt- it's to the downside- A couple of hours to go before the market opens- So what happened overnight to try to scuttle yesterday's bullish move in tech?

Tech's attempt to put in a bottom this week, and establish a reversal looks promising.
I presently added some tech back this week- but in relatively small sized positions- including a basket of the ARK funds-as well as MOON, GNOM, and saw initial upsides from the recent declines in Chinese/EM markets- I think Tech is still largely working out the overly high valuations that the run up through Feb provided- The question is how much more downside might we see, or were the recent lows from where we have moved higher this week the true bottom?
On the other end of the spectrum, How much of the recovery play is already priced in? Does "Value" still have plenty of upside? The slope & momentum of the chart's trajectory this week has certainly increased, following a week of sideways basing the prior week -Big Buy volume since Mar 1,


Had a gain in QLD- now will take a loss at the open in the trading acct- Stop-loss in NAIL will capture an +8% gain- if it gets hit today-
Should really consider the Minervini approach and take that initial partial profit-
Moved the GUSH stop up to $85.00 - a potential $4.59 loss below the entry.

Waiting until after the 10 am hour to determine the market's Tech direction-
Also China's gov't pressuring it's markets- perhaps that's more the rationale for the selling there...

Best performer @ the open ERSX-- NOn US Small caps, KRE-Regional banks, PSCF small cap financials, IYT- transports, PAVE infrastructure, IWD Russel value. DIA- Dow Jones index


Decliners- All things TECH, China

Energy- Gush not popping higher- The low in the 1st 30 minutes $88.05- price is sideways- on the 5 min. Setting $88.00 as the stop-

QQQ's gap down open, low $312.09 but trying to recover $314.46 Mar 10 lows were $310.17 so, that should hold as support for price today -fingers crossed.

[sd]

MIDDAY 3-12
Tech recovering off the lows- a positive sign-
Trading account- Stops hit QLD, NAIL,GUSH- The gains in Nail offsetting the losses in QLD- Still holding a profit in CNBS with a stop above the entry
I had a profitable small trade in OLED this week, it stopped out for a net gain as it pulled backintraday this week - but it has not declined and has held up today so I just repurchased as a trade- will hold through the weekend-

Generally, ARK funds also recovering from today's lows-
The 10 yr is up to 1.63% today- supposedly this is what is pressuring tech to sell-off, but several pundits are voicing that the market reaction -the selling- is an overreaction to what should be viewed as a normal rise in rates that should be viewed as benefitting by a recovering economy.
MOON ETF is gaining today, QQQJ also holding up very well.
Added FLR breakout $22.77 LLNW after a mention on an interview on CNBC- Both are trades- FLR is a construction Co that should be part of infrastructure recovery, has been steadily uptrending from the recent pullback


DAILY VIEW




Spent the afternoon outside in the yard, pruning grape vines and enjoying the 75 degree + day! Everything is budding out- but winter will give us a last push in the next few weeks I'm sure- April 15 is actually the last frost date.

Well, the End of week tally $233,355- so a recovery from the lows this week , grinding slowly higher- and I'm holding Tech through the weekend -
The QQQJ's finished strong compared to the QQQ's. The difference is the equal weight vs cap weighted. The Nas index finished down ,59%
So holding a minimal amount in Tech and overweighting the value trades is giving the portfolio some ballast.
I'm not finding any difficulty in walking away from the computer during market hours- I want to see that open and 1st hour- and possibly catch the last hour before the Close-
Weekend ahead- no worries!~Enjoy!

Will review some charts, update the chartlist; finish pruning the vines- and since they are getting past their prime, will dig in last year's fresh leaders to become a new self- rooted vine planted over this season, eventually replacing the original plant- Also- got to start some garden veg. seeds this weekend -

reviewing the past 10 day performance of Spy, QQQ, Iwm, VIOV (small cap value) clearly showed the small cap value the clear leader +9.27



a 1 week review shows Tech gaining and the Russel 20000 ahead of the 600 value.

[ira85]

Activity since 3-01-21
DBA bought 300 shares @ 17.34 Sold @ 17.11 -1.3%
QQQJ bought 75 shares @ 32.59. Sold @ 31.00 -4.9%
RSP bought 100 shares @ 130.41 Sold @ 133.00 +1.9%
Bought PSCT 50 shares @ 130.99 cv 141.48
Bought PSCT 50 shares @ 143.81 Sold @ 132.10 -8.1%

Bought 3-09-21
RZV 55 shares @ 90.70 cv 94.64
RWJ 40 shares @ 116.70 cv 123.54
RIOT 60 shares @ 48.84 cv 62.81
Bought 3-11-21
PSCD 50 shares @ 116.70 cv 119.17
RWJ 50 shares @ 120.63 cv 123.54

On 3-03-21 SD very generously reviewed a table like this and commented on the decision process in setting stops and selling. I need to do this much more often and get more skilled at it.

SD spotted DBA as a problem. At that time it was less than 1% below purchase price. I didn't recognize there could be much of a problem at that level. DBA is at 17.30 now, still below purchase price of 17.34.

The broad market was down hard March 2-5, so this review caught things pretty close to the worst of the past month. Right now I think RZV, RWJ, and PSCD look good based on moving averages. RIOT appears to be the problem child. It went parabolic in mid-February and shot off far above the 50 SMA. By March 9 the 7 SMA was below the 50 which was below the 200. But price has shot up again since March 9. Today the 50 SMA crossed back across the 200. I think RIOT will respond strongly to news regarding Bitcoin and blockchain. They have been in the news a lot. And the news has generally been favorable. It will likely be interesting, but I'd rather have it be profitable. -ira

[sd]

Quite honestly my "advice" is well intentioned but pretty much reflects my own approach as to when one should Buy and When is a good time to take a loss-
Everyone has different views on when something is a good Buy or needs to be sold at a loss- Determining how much Risk one wants to provide a position on an entry - and then adjusting that Risk tighter - particularly if the trade appears to be going against you and lessening the loss is is often the right thing to do- but there needs to be a bit of leeway for what could be typical volatility- That said, much depends on the tenor of the larger market indexes - If the indexes are dropping lower, it's a good time to reduce Risk, protect gains.
Allow me to point out that as long as the trend is up and to the right- minor pullbacks and dips are considered by many to be the better buying opportunities-
One of the board members @ the SMM website- BRoberts- often refers to a weekly chart and pullbacks to the 50 week trend line as buying opportunities- That's quite a distance from the Daily 50 ema - (that would be about a 250 ema ) and the 200 ema daily is often referred to as the ultimate line in the sand- for those that hold positions long term- (institutional buyers) and also represents a potential add for those with deep pockets.

In viewing some of the forum videos- I see that Dan has presented a wide assortment of educational trading videos- He likes to Buy breakouts from "Squeeze" consolidations using Bollinger bands-
In many of his commentaries, he recommends that a stop-loss should ideally be -4 to no more than -8%- and one should be targeting a 2 win -1 loss ratio- So a -4% stop-loss should yield an +8% win and higher- Also- Like Minervini- he will often take a part of a winning position off as it may get to a + 5-+10%

ON breakouts, he discusses also buying the pullback that is a retest of the breakout- Note that some breakouts never have that initial pullback -
On trends, also Buying a pullback if one missed the initial entry- but consider that his buy point is also when price has started to make the turn back higher- not when declining.
DAN also emphasizes that the "ENTRY IS EVERYTHING"- Getting into a trade at the best possible point- I've used the term in the past -as Close to the Point of Failure- POF....
and the reason that is important is that it can provide the best potential for a lower Risk trade.

The DBA trade-

"Activity since 3-01-21
DBA bought 300 shares @ 17.34 Sold @ 17.11 -1.3%
QQQJ bought 75 shares @ 32.59. Sold @ 31.00 -4.9%
RSP bought 100 shares @ 130.41 Sold @ 133.00 +1.9%
Bought PSCT 50 shares @ 130.99 cv 141.48
Bought PSCT 50 shares @ 143.81 Sold @ 132.10 -8.1%

Bought 3-09-21
RZV 55 shares @ 90.70 cv 94.64
RWJ 40 shares @ 116.70 cv 123.54
RIOT 60 shares @ 48.84 cv 62.81
Bought 3-11-21
PSCD 50 shares @ 116.70 cv 119.17
RWJ 50 shares @ 120.63 cv 123.54

On 3-03-21 SD very generously reviewed a table like this and commented on the decision process in setting stops and selling. I need to do this much more often and get more skilled at it.

SD spotted DBA as a problem. At that time it was less than 1% below purchase price. I didn't recognize there could be much of a problem at that level. DBA is at 17.30 now, still below purchase price of 17.34."

DBA is presently doing fine- and I have since bought some - I think it is well worth adding back - as it has not dropped like the index did - and has held the uptrend. It is also the better performer than MOO and gives exposure to the AG mkts-
My comments on Mar 3 were also in the context of the SPY going down- and i was likely recommending getting defensive due to weakness in SPY-
DBA held up very well- not volatile-
My Mar 3 caution- on getting defensive- "-DBA hAS MADE 3 RECENT cLOSES BELOW THE FAST EMA- SET A STOP @ $17- ABOUT -1% BELOW WHERE IT CLOSED TODAY.21 EMA. OR GIVE IT MORE ROOM $16.79 THE 30 EMA.... tHIS ONE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GO HIGHER i WOULD EXPECT- 50 EMA @ $16.50 WOULD BE PLENTY WIDE- RISKS MORE FROM YOUR ENTRY $17.34"

I marked up on the Chart- DBA had a series of very strong Momentum moves in the days preceding the entry- Notice how extended above the fast ema it had been- and the pullback was seeing price Closing below the fast ema- See how this occurred earlier in the trend- The pull-away from the fast emas are often met with a reaction move (reversion to the mean) lower- But DBA held above the 21 ema-
I was also nervous about the larger market SPY selling off- and so my stop-loss recommendations also suggested 3 levels-depending on your Risk appetite.
My 1st recommended stop was -1% below the low - essentially at the 21 ema at that time. That was based on looking back at other pullbacks in this uptrend, and the 21 ema hadn't been touched. As that turns out, that would have been a very tight loss of -1.9%
The other 2 suggested stop levels- progressively wider each would have Risked 3.17% & 4.8% respectively.
I would recommend Buying this back as a way to further diversify your holdings- I'm optimistic that AG will do well going forward- I'm not certain what the index holds- but it is still a VERY good buy here- and I would then consider where to set a stop-loss-

bUYING BACK HERE IS a better entry than when price is declining under the fast ema (as a general guideline) - Price is in a consolidation following the pullback, and is showing a continuation of the uptrend- I like to drill down by using a faster time frame chart- so by using the 4 Hour chart, you get 2 price bars per day-
That also will get a faster signal potentially on the Elder impulse colored bars, rather than waiting for the Daily-
Using a faster time frame for price signals is a double edged sword- potentially earlier and more price swings. So, let's keep it in context-
Assume one uses moving averages - I prefer faster -a 5 or 7; a 21 & /or 30, and a 50 ema. on the daily.
When i drill down into the 4 hr charts- I'm modifying the time frame by 1/2 - or 2x as many signals- so I'm showing the daily equivalent on this 4 hr chart to the daily moving averages- The 100 ema is = to a 50 daily (approx) the 60 to the 30- 42 to the 21 etc.

Viewing the price action - and the suggestion to reenter the trade- - Note that a stop loss can be set that is below -4% at the 4 hr 100 ema - and that gives price plenty of room to move with some volatility without shaking one out with a too tight stop whipsaw- Based on the 3 months chart here- notice that the 21 ema has been touched a couple of times- so a -1% stop below that may be OK, but perhaps it would be simpler to use the 30 ema- but keep a stop at the 50 ema until price violates the 21 on volatility initially-
Assuming the trade goes progressively higher take a partial profit on a future multiday gap away, and progressively get the remainder of the stop up beyond the entry cost- If you sell into what is obviously a pull-away from the fast ema and capture a nice +10% target gain, you can then look for a reversion to the mean pullback to reenter that part of the position at a lower cost basis- potentially buying more shares on the retracement with the gains.