SD-2020 TRADING WITH THE TIDE

[ira85]

Excellent points!! I know I'm prone to make decisions based on my logical assessment rather than going just from what the chart shows. Some of that is due to knowledge and experience deficit. Most of my years of following the stock market has been with buy and hold as the one accepted system for managing your investments. I've had very little experience or training in trading using charts. I feel a little guilty about taking so much of your time, but I do find it intresting and helpful. I have hoped some other early trading career folks might join us in learning about this stuff. It probably wouldn't take much more time to have ten people reading your advice than just one. But it seems I'm the only student. But know I do recognize and appreciate your time spent on this. -ira

[sd]

Hi IRA ,
1st Note-Thurs pm futures/news Market is potentially rallying Friday on a positive GILD drug for potential recovery- Cover your short position IMO- This is a "news" and sentiment reaction only- but it likely makes the SDS position unsustainable- JMHO

There are actually only a few people that do follow our conversations here-and also did during the Horse Race- as my long time friend -Swift- pointed out following up on the position sizing example I had posted- by PM.to me - But, as i have a full time day job doing things usually away from a computer screen , my periodic-postings keep me involved in thinking about the market- and responding to you keeps the interest alive to contribute- But not enough activity or participation to prompt others - So, I'm pleased to interact with you here- or by PM --as time allows- This "trading bug " has been a preoccupation since 1998 for me-
Caveat you understand: I simply post what I think has worked best for me- and for my temperament - and tried to share some of that experience periodically- That's not to say that I would advise others- or you- to take similar actions as I advocate for myself- though-- Lots of variables and everyone has their own way to approach trading- investing- and I have only my limited and relatively narrow experience to draw on- All of us eventually adopt our own way of trading or investing- and no Two are ever going to be the same- Note- Richard Dennis- Turtle Traders...
Think back to the types of Entries made during the Horse Race- Each racer had his or her own style of position they would take- And there was a lot of variation in style....
When Real Money comes into play though- Our Psychology Also comes into play - and so it's a different game altogether- The stakes are much higher , as it's not only the $$$ at Risk, it's our sense of our Self - our judgement, our desire to be right- and to win and to Not Lose in this endeavor- Particularly susceptible are those with strong egos that are successful in other ventures- and apply that same type of personal Hubris into their trading attempts-

All of that noted- I initially started this annual blog years earlier in the Strategies Thread - with the realization that I was undergoing a Learning Curve. I expected that I would soon find myself achieving trading success and Nirvana soon , but that didn't happen quite as easily as I had expected... But I managed to Survive the Learning Curve despite my own poor selections and executions because I had adopted the Position Sizing approach initially given to me by DG and Banked Out- but had been available by Pristine-- years earlier- 2001 era- But we only learn when we are receptive-

Sometimes we need to have Failing trades in order to allow us to start to consider other options available to us- or be receptive to alternate approaches-

If there is any value from this thread for anyone- For newer traders- or struggling traders- It is to Apply a position sizing Discipline to your approach to the markets- Given time , experience in making trades, and understanding that you have a winning approach- you can consider increasing the position size and focus- during those trending periods that support your approach.

Position Sizing allowed my account to survive a very long learning curve-

Don't trade your emotion- Trade With the Trend until the trend breaks down and Rolls over-

Sit on your Hands if undecided- and if you Have to make a trade- reduce the Positon size-

Add into winning positions- and if stopped out on a pullback, reenter if the trend resumes , trail stops wide unless the momentum fades and closes below the 5-10 ema.
Once a trade is up- widen the stop-loss to still capture a gain - give it a bit more room as your profit widens- but think to split the position with 1/2 at a tighter stop- 1/2 at a wider stop...

Leverage is dangerous- do not ever use Margin or leveraged ETFs until you absolutely have a solid approach with stops-and years of experience- \

Individual Stocks carry potential larger gains or larger losses- The majority of one's assets become at greater risk if one invests in a single stock vs an index-

Learn to trade an Index 1st- The majority of stocks are replicated by the index- An Index position- DIA, SPY, QQQ reduces the single stock Risk

Technology sector usually leads in recent years- and likely ahead- QQQ outperforms SPY- VGT outperforms QQQ.

Learn to trade the Chart- Dave Landry, Stan Weinstein-


I think Most importantly- Trade With the Trend- Do Not fight it- What the Trend is tells you where the majority of the market thinks it should be- If Volatility is high and choppy- stand aside until the final trend shows itself- If you doubt the trend, stand aside- Don't allow your intellect to try to apply reason to a market full of sentiment- You will Lose.

Get a stock-charts account- learn to compare on PERF charts- focus on the market strongest sector trends- Some trends rise while others fail- Go with the leaders and upside momentum and do not buy beaten down value sectors- Read the stock charts contributors- Bowley, Hill Kempenauer- RRG rotatioons.

Lots to learn and it can become a real chess game with one's self- Enjoy- the new experience- it is both stimulating/challenging and can potentially be rewarding-Do Not allow it to become frustrating or a real hit to one financially- That will not occur if you apply the Position sizing approach-

Proceed slowly- Do not put on 10 positions with 10% value @ 1% Risk all in the same sector at the same time- because you will lose if all are in the same sector- or all long- so tread step by step as you ease into this-

Good luck- ! SD-

While I acknowledged my conservative approach underperformed the market during the past year- the stop-loss and then wait to repurchase approach at lower levels worked well during this decline:
the 1 yr net return is +13% while the market is presently down -16% that's a + 29% difference vs Buy and Hold and allows me to sleep easier .
Actual performance YTD is about +9% and that included making some early buys when the market initially declined- never thinking it would decline as far-
The only way I was able to have cash on hand was by employing a trend trading strategy that included getting stopped out and raising cash positions that enabled me to be a buyer at lower levels:m I have since sold the up move from those lower levels and that provided the potitive YTD performance- about 9% over 4 mos. and now largely back in cash-

i.imgur.com/55Jlvx4.png


i.imgur.com/sXvxMIu.png

[ira85]

I just went to StockCharts.com, gave them my credit card info, and signed up. I've visited that site before and didn't sign up because it seemed like a major comittment. There is obviously a lot of info there. Learning what all those different charts are and how to use them is obviously a big project. But after reading your feedback this evening I figured I either need to get serious about this or quit and turn it over to my advisor. I was going to write more, but it's getting late. -ira

[sd]

I would think that it's a good 1st step to learn about charting- and take advantage of the many contributors available- I chose to simplify and use the basics- EMAs and Elder impulse charts- an option in your charting that provides the various momentum colored bars- Don't overly depend on many indicators- Price relative to an uptrending group of Emas is your friend- get on board - and don't try to buy something just because it is suddenly at a discount- Understand that the majority of stocks follow the larger market tides- very few can gain when the momemtum is going out or down- Stop-losses become essential during this process- They protect you from yourself-
Sign up for the stock charts TV/You tube- and the various free
/subscriber e-mails-Arthur hill, Tom Bosley , Jules Kepenauer- RRG charting- I think a Basic subscription is all you would use initially - relatively inexpensive for what it provides. Granted, there is a lot to learn initially, and that may appear daunting at first- but it becomes easier over time- Since trading is an adaptive process- it should be approached in small steps- analytical steps- position sizing in place- with the expectation that you will make losing trades (all traders do) - but knowing that you will survive the learning curve as long as you hold control over your approach and exposure- and approach this slowly- not allowing emotion and greed to cause you to make impulse trades.
Set the emotion aside- study where the upside momentum is- preferably with ETFs as the risk is less- than individual stocks- they should come later- Learn to trade along With the upside momentum-
Enjoy the challenge- View it as a learning process vs an Earning process- and you will succeed.
SD

[sd]

TIME TO OWN GOLD?


Owning a small % of GOLD- perhaps through the GLD -may stabilize a portfolio some during turbulent times-
Owning the miners GDX- or the Junior miners- GDXJ- would have lost 50% of the investment over the past decade- Perhaps these should best be considered as short term trading vehicles and not as investments- if one is a momentum trader.
Note the 10+ year PERF chart- comparing QQQ, SPY, GLD, GDX, GDXJ-- Obviously from an investment stand, one would have preferred to have some weighting in the technology sector- and likely should for the next 10 years as well-
Note-Once the chart comes up, click on the chart itself to enlarge....


i.imgur.com/nmODmxv.png

Viewing the more recent performance -past 30 days,:
i.imgur.com/9HCpRlP.png

A Surge in the past 10 market days-

i.imgur.com/Dfaeyqt.png

But now the market seems to be seeing a return to normalcy- Some of the Fear is declining obviously - Note that GLD doesn't even return a dividend- so it could be Dead weight in those periods of market recovery
The past 5 days- look what is leading -
i.imgur.com/xoYlB83.png

The PERF chart feature is found at the bottom of the chart page- along with the RRG - Relative rotation graph- I like the perf chart as you can adjust the slider # of days by clicking inside the box- , and then you can click on the slider and move it to view over time- I think the standard view is 200 days, but you can adjust- down to even 1 day- up to 20 years-
Note that if comparing multiple symbols QQQ, SPY, $indu - it w can go back 5,357 days - into 1999- but if you then enter in a symbol that more recently came to the market , it will only go back to where that more recent symbol became active- GDX back in 2006- In the slider box- you can enter 6,000- and it will take you to the max active days of those tickers you have entered to compare- with a comma between them.

Should the market not find solid ground and fear returns in the months ahead- GLD can best be considered in a period of financial distress- Putting that in Context -view the chart comparison of SPY, GLD from back in 2007 to the present day- GLD peaked in 2011, and then declined for years as the market moved higher- Good example of WHY one should consider a stop-loss on any investment - Sometimes the performance is not Spy up- Gold goes down- but generally Gold gains if the market is perhaps stretched or considered unstable-
GDX majors may be a more solvent way to track Gold momentum than GDXJ

i.imgur.com/jxyKJLM.png



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[ira85]

I sold my position in SDS on Friday. Wanted to do it Thursday, but life gets in the way sometimes. I had a small loss, but some good lessons. I jumped the gun with my purchase. I bought asap because I was convinced the broad market is just about to reverse to the downside. But that's my opinion, not what the market action was saying. I read in Stock Charts this weekend about common errors new traders tend to make. That one I just described was on the list. Apparently a lot of newbies make this mistake of loving an idea and holding on to it too long. Too slow to cut losses. I'm learning a bit. I sure don't want to have a string of thinking errors and losing trades. I may try this trade again, but only if the trend changes and I'm gong with the trend. Thanks SD. -ira

[sd]

It's difficult to time this volatile market- We now have had 2 consecutive down days, Yesterday (Tuesday ) was a substantial -3% + for all the major indexes-
Reversal of trend trades- often do not occur on a 1st attempt up move- Which I consider a 1st signal to be price moving higher and closing above the declining fast ema. Comparing volatility $VIX
and yet also compare the charts- Note that SDS is an ULTRA- so it moves 2x wider- View SPY, and note the turn 3-23 went higher, had a small pullback but made a higher Low- then continued higher- and the Tuesday move - Red bar is a pullback, but does not necessarily tell us that a downtrend will resume-
The broad definition of an uptrend is higher highs, followed by higher lows, followed by higher highs.
See the attached chart- click on chart to enlarge - drawing channel lines during a trend can be useful- vs just seeing price bars-
Present futures this 8 am hour are indicating a potential for a higher market open.
We could see SPY pullback another 3% and still Close within the uptrending channel -
i.imgur.com/Kcxn050.png
, a -5% move would go to 260 or so- still a higher low- While volatile- that does not mean a new decline will have follow through to reverse what appears to be a potential
Since the present trend is technically still upsloping, taking a counter position could be done in terms of trying to gauge taking a price entry inside the channel- but that's a very narrow range- .
I think it's likely we have had a much higher recovery than expected - and the future impact would pull prices down lower- But that's my attempt at logic being applied to a market that can discount whatever it wants, (Baked in ) and yet react in fear at other new potential news, threats, etc.
So, I would recommend to go Long with the uptrend and find the sectors/index that may be leading. -Or individual stocks as a higher risk/higher reward .
My overall favorite investment sector had been in Tech- Broadly through VGT- and then through the ARK funds- Presently only a few very small positions
- ARKQ - didn't stop out-yet - automation focused. MSFT stopped out yesterday- will likely reenter today if it moves higher on a Buy-Stop order .
The example of a Buy-stop is to Buy if Price moves up to $169 and a Limit of $172.00- , stop below yesterday's low $165.00-



SO< I find myself in the position of most market timers- Not trusting this Rally, got some profits on the upswing- then stopped out on what turned out to be minor pullbacks, and chose to mostly sit on my hands for the last 1/2 of this rally with protecting capital (Fear) vs Risking capital (Greed).

[sd]

Rain allowed me to stay home today- Spouse and I masked up- went to the grocery store- limited to 2 packages of Chicken- Some shelves still empty, News of food chain disruptions- Several
chicken plants across the country and locally having a large % of employees affected.
GILD - some early news on GILD's remdesivir drug under study had a negative report initially coming out of china - pushing the stock price down-6% and causing today's market rally to weaken intraday, but still in positive territory as I post this- The market drop on the disappointing news release is indicative of how high the Hopes for a return to normalcy this market is pricing in.
In the trading account- Yesterday I purchased LH on the news it expects to have testing procedures in place in 30 days or so -with many Lab Corp sites around the country-
Something of a text book Reversal Of Trend trade -I haven't been seeking to follow the markets the past few weeks- sitting mostly in cash expecting a move back lower- before adding back in any size-

i.imgur.com/g1vBkfi.png

Also, I purchased INO -- seemed to be moving up in conjunction with the pharma sector- Simply based on the uptrending chart- and sector-

i.imgur.com/RQJoprN.png

ARKK To put some skin in the market /tech

i.imgur.com/V9rdr8O.png

On China's reported recovery KWEB
i.imgur.com/KI9Iyg9.png

MSFT again after stopping out on a pullback.
SPCE as a gamble

Following up on a question concerning the use of the PERF chart-
If I want to compare a group of different priced stocks, the Candle Glance allows me to see the group of charts together on a page-
Determining the difference in performance can be done by using the PERF chart feature to compare % performance-
In this example- Some Stocks/ETFs tracking the interest in Gold -
Note that the Gold index is GLD-- GOLD is an individual company/miner-
i.imgur.com/mD73GI5.png

With different pricings across multiple charts, it can be difficult to easily compare relative performance- and to find out performance.
The PERF chart makes the comparison easy to do across any time frame

i.imgur.com/5uanLSN.png since the reversal on March 16

the 1 year PERF shows that Barrick Gold had been the relative outperformer
i.imgur.com/A7bPbzu.png

However, if the initial investment had been made back in 2017- Royal Gold -RGLD was the outperformer -
i.imgur.com/xEUMBAk.png

Bought 15 TDOC- belated reentry from weeks ago stopping out- I would think this industry will have growth continuing into the future-
My health insurance carrier is promoting tele-conference with a doctor

i.imgur.com/Tveorg0.png

INO- i.imgur.com/BAtVoDq.png

[sd]

Well written article by SA contributor Eric Parnell that explains a bearish view of the present market and the recent rally
seekingalpha.com/article/4339418-bear-is-on-prowl?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-widget

gary Gordon on Howard Marks:
seekingalpha.com/article/4339266-aprils-rally-inappropriately-positive?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=must-read-this-time-it-will-be-different&utm_campaign=nl-must-read&utm_content=link-7

Daniel Schoenberger- Comparing the historical CAPE valuations to this present day market also assumes we are still highly priced and over valued-:

seekingalpha.com/article/4339627-buying-opportunity-of-lifetime-think-again?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-widget

[ira85]

I've been reading articles at StockCharts trying to learn some basics of technical analysis. I prefer reading articles filled with charts made by experts. That's recreation. Learning how to make my own charts, well that's more difficult. More like work. I realized several years ago that the weekly horse race we had was purely recreational for me. With practice I got better playing the horse race game, but I wasn't getting any better at real life investing. In fact I would leave my IRAs for months at a time without looking at them. But I was spending 2 or more hours a week playing the horse race and spending zero minutes a week managing my real life IRAs. I'm sure lots of people do the same thing, i.e. spending their time doing what they like (recreation) and spending very little time or effort on real life responsibilities that are a lot like work. After my first week as a member of StockCharts I can see I've spent several hours in learning activities that were interesting. The people who created the site seem to have tried to make learning this fairly complex stuff interesting.

I sold my SDS shares a week ago, putting me back at 100% cash. Since I started actively managing my Roth IRA we've had the market crash, a 35% down move from February 19 to the low March 23, 22 trading days I think. I wanted to short that move, but I didn't get into it quickly enough. The relief rally started March 23 and is still going. The rally has lost momentum and seems like it could break down any day now. I'm just watching to see what happens rather than trying to anticipate what's going to happen. Predicting the future seems to be generally discredited as a technical analysis activity (that's an attempt at humor). Predicting the future was what I used to do a lot. Now I'm trying to let the market tell me what it's doing. Old habits can be hard to break, but I'm going to make a real effort.

The other thing I've been watching is gold. I don't think it's a great financial asset to own. But occasionally it has periods of a few years when it outperforms most other assets. With Uncle Sam running the money printing machine 24/7 recently the stage is being set for some kind of financial crisis in the future. While we wait and wonder what will happen financially, gold and gold miners may do very well. They can be hedges against hyper-inflation and potential safe haven for other financial crises. Gold miner GDX is up about 35% in the past month and I'm a little concerned it looks a bit overbought. I plan to watch and see if it gives me a better price in the coming weeks. Oh. I read the three articles SD posted. Good stuff, especially Eric Parnell. -ira

[sd]

I also have left my IRA for extended periods=- and now essentially holding a large cash position - anticipating a decline- despite all of the FED and financial engineering-
I did go ahead and take positions in the trading account- About 5% of the net portfolio - so the Risk is also reduced.
And so my focus is not All in on what the market does every day....
And -Yes- work is indeed involved if one is managing more than their entertainment trading account- Lots at potential risk from both a $$$ and Time perspective-
Note that Gold is not a good long term investment- and, it also does not directly act as a safe haven trade as one may expect- See this March 9 high and note the big decline GLD had - declining With the market initially- But check out the decline in GDX- It lost 30% in less than a week -before recovering and outperforming higher- That's volatility!
i.imgur.com/rrTrL3G.png
A suggestion- with trading commissions Nil- It allows one to take a series of small position trades - .5%, 1% 2% vs taking a 10% position - 10% would be the max one should start with- but there are no minimums to allow one to take smaller position size- and get some skin in the game- as part of the learning process-
Similar principles should apply - For example-Find sectors trending- Take 5 trades with each trade max at 1% - and apply the correct position sizing for that position-
Set your stops - as long as price is moving higher and closing above the 5 ema - trail a stop-loss at the 10 ema - or wider- unless the price closes at the 5 ema or below- then raise the stop to the Low of that bar- AFTER the Close.

Note that there are some sectors showing outperformance- Biotech reaching new highs- IBB making all new highs this past week, ARKG as well. Seems extended - When something seems extended, you have the opportunity to reduce your position size and follow price with a stop-loss trailed and upgraded daily if need be- Once the stop is at your entry cost- or slightly higher- relax a bit- don't get the stop too tight- give it more room as price goes higher- gradually raising, but widening the stop- If you use the Elder Impulse bars- A hard stop on any red bar is required.

Listening to a radio/investment program today- It was pointed out that we presently have historically low taxes in place- The net impact of the Gov't supporting millions of people,increased debt to see us through this pandemic, will be a net future increase in taxes for everyone - Rolling over taxes from a conventional 401k into a Roth IRA - and paying the present tax will likely be less than future taxes- worth considering with your tax professional. Also- it may be advisable to with draw from sheltered plans now and pay the present reduced tax vs withdrawing in 2-5 years and paying at a higher rate. Of course, all of this should be discussed with a professional tax adviser.

[sd]

4-28-2020 Some states are trying to open - Georgia- opening barber shops/salons etc- while other states are still struggling with an increasing contamination- -
Since this is almost May- you would expect the FLU to be gone- and yet this virus seems to have staying power-
The expectation is that this Virus will diminish largely due to warmer weather, but return in the Fall , and become a double threat- Flu and Corona virus- affecting the world economies.

This Virus clearly appears to have a higher mortality rate, contagion rate, than the Flu, and largely targets older people and those with compromised immune systems- or underlying issues- obesity, high blood pressure, diabetes etc - As Gomer Pyle would say "GollEEEE! but now I'm dating myself!

For myself, I believe that this virus is everything we Fear-Consider the Fear perspective: It will not have a vaccine preventative by Fall- It will continue to destabilize our lives, our business, our economy ;
and cause a huge social disruption to our prior way of life- It has been 6 weeks since we saw 2 of our Grandchildren for a relatively short time- Just Yesterday-- What if this social isolation becomes part of our new normal? Unthinkable- yes- Possible- yes- Does a higher mortality rate become the accepted norm so the economy continues?

What could this new world become? The George Orwellian concept: Higher taxes and higher costs as our open society transforms into an isolated series of Islands of virus free stores and
select virus free consumers.... Perhaps a card initially proclaiming one's immunity- and then simply a small tatoo/

Eventually science will have to eradicate this pandemic- But we still have not conquered the Flu and some 30,000 deaths are caused annually- and we have found this to be acceptable-
Why are 60,0000 deaths from this Virus such a large concern? It cuts down on those receiving Social Security and are likely elderly anyways? Perhaps it's just Nature weeding out those more susceptible? like Myself I might add.

It truly would appear that we have come to a new crossroads in our society- This may spark an evolution in the biotech space that takes leadership going forward- but the danger lies in those countries that are unable to compensate for the impact of this disease on their society- and perhaps this is where science and politics can come together to keep a world order- or where this virus throws a world into chaos- Of course, that is the nightmare scenario- Hopefully the US will lead us out of this potential morass
I think we face a foe that undermines all of our society - Perhaps it is not as important to identify this Foe, as it is to engage and defeat it - Blame can be distributed later.
These becomes the conditions upon which Wars get started- and WE control this outcome- for the better or for the worse- Speak Up.

[sd]

While I find it amazing that the markets have recovered as much as we have- and I have exited much earlier in the recovery-and missed a good portion of this recovery due to the 1st Rally pullback hitting my trailed stops- I decided I will put a toe back in in the retirement account and will purchase 50 VGT (tech sector) Stop:$244.00 Limit:$245.00 GILD's drug remdesivir has given some hope - but it likely is not the final answer..... and is somewhat questionable-
With that said, it is a possible step in the right direction to allow us to reduce our social distancing - and regain a semblance of normalcy-
Tech sector has been sideways for a week or so, and is now breaking out higher-
Overall I am still suspicious-and in wonder- of this rally - and not intending to jump back in with the majority of my free cash. Obviously the FED and Gov't willing to backstop the unemployed, the millions that will not have a job to go back to- the businesses that find their debt load overwhelming - This will become evident in the months ahead and the market appears braced for bad news- but willing to continue to pay up for what will be a decline in earnings in many industries-
One noteable area is that large mega cap tech - led by a half dozen big names- AAPL, FB, AMZN, etc- were responsible for the majority of the gains within the indexes- and the remainder essentially trailed the big names- This makes for a dangerous -top-heavy - and lopsided higher market- Market breadth should be across the boards and spread out to be sustainable .
As small caps generally are thought to represent the broad market economy better than a few mega caps-Good to see the small cap index is breaking out higher-
To what extent this is attributable to the approval of GILD's drug as a possible means of controlling the spread/impact of the virus is difficult to say- Perhaps that combined with the limited reopening of many state's orders to shut down non essential business also adds momentum -
i.imgur.com/6eNEZXr.png

VANGUARD TECH -VGT
i.imgur.com/rynqVML.png

Edit-add- Of course, the market is extended - and earnings are just coming in - and some economic reality may come back to the markets- I will anticipate that the market is at a near term top- and my purchase of VGT on this breakout may not see much upside from here-

[sd]

5-3- Weather is summer like- 80+ degrees in NC- Day on the lake this weekend- Marina totally full - Death toll is increasing +67.000 this week's total- while a number of States are trying to relax the isolation-and open business back up- A lot of protests are springing up - and it s wide spread across the country- People are understandably distressed by the stay at home order- and the best examples I have are my daughters who both own their own small business- and have gone these many weeks shut down, and have been the last to receive any kind of aid or unemployment-
I feel they represent the majority of the small businesses that make up 70% of America's work force-
Hopefully the virus has peaked in most areas , and those most susceptible will remain isolated and taking precautions- as people try to reopen the economy, there will beplaces where it will be successful, and places where the pandemic will likely see increases. The impact on our society and way of doing social interactions is evolving - If this disease does not go away during the summer months like the flu- and the pandemic continues - worst scenario-
With a flu type vaccine expected by the end of the year- it is likely that the flu and Corona both return in the fall and dense populations again become most affected. Perhaps society becomes hardened to the death toll in an effort to keep things back to normal? We are in unknown territory and the long term impact is assumed to be manageable....
Holding in a large % in cash- and stop-losses in the trading account.

[ira85]

I've been watching the virus news a lot the last few days. Also reading a good bit at StockCharts. But I haven't put in much time learning the chart building skills. I haven't given up. Just slowed down to focus on the covid19 news. I just read an account of what the Spanish flu did in 1918-19. I had noticed there has been very little discussion of the Spanish flu and what might have been learned then that could help us now. Well the whole battle with Spanish flu took place during World War I. Printing or reporting on the flu was not allowed because such information would be of strategic value to the enemy. So the populations of Europe and America knew there was a flu problem, but no one printed any details. That meant there was no effort made to quarantine the sick or restrict travel. No stay at home orders or even advice.

Another difference was the relatively primitive abilities of 1918 medicine. They didn't have microscopes capable of seeing the virus. Throughout the course of the pandemic medicine was not able to identify the pathogen and was not able to make a vaccine.

But the really interesting part is the ways the Spanish flu was like covid19. The Spanish flu was first found in March 1918. It was a lot like the ordinary seasonal flu, i.e. most of the deaths were the very young, very old, etc. Most people got sick for 3 days then got better without intensive treatment. In April and May 1918 the flu spread like crazy in Europe. A war was being fought and troops were being moved. So the flu could spread easily, but most sick troops got well. The flu wasn't a problem over the summer of 1918, until August. Then a new strain appeared, apparently a mutation of the original Spanish flu and far deadlier. The new strain of that flu killed not only the very young and old, but also lots of 25 to 35 year olds. Reportedly 195,000 Americans died in the month of October 1918. As far as I could find the Spanish flu pandemic ran it's course and disappeared in the spring of 1919. It just ran it's normal course as flu pandemics do.

It was estimated 50 million died world wide, 675,000 in the U.S. The Spanish flu killed more American soldiers and sailors than the war did.

It seems if the current outbreak fizzles out this spring and doesn't come back until we have a vaccine it's game over. But if it came back in a mutated more lethal form like it did in 1918, it's our worst nightmare. The new mutation might not be stopped by the vaccines being worked on now. That would be a problem of Biblical proportions. I'm interested in the Swedish strategy and how well or badly it works.

I'll get back to the market tomorrow, Monday.
CNBC futures, DOW implied open -136.69 -ira