SD-2020 TRADING WITH THE TIDE

[sd]

Nice to capture a historic market bounce exceeding levels not seen since 1933- Yesterday's purchases all had a very nice gain- and the net effect is I'm sitting at a -2.5% loss still- cut in 1/2 with today's price action.

[sd]

The Tuesday bounce was all about the gov't taking action and getting something passed - It seems theres a lot of pork and fluff being tossed in with this Bill designed to lessen the crisis. The market flattened out today- Perhaps the Tuesday rally was too much enthusiasm, and too soon- Reliant on a promise of a resolution ........
There's a lot of concern that the bailout is gping to be taken advantage of by large corporations, and politicians attempting to get Pork for their favorite projects in exchange for their vote - whether that project has anything to do with the impact of this crisis or not . Bernie Sanders claims too much corporate greed at play- Others- Republicans- feel the public may be getting too much of an incentive to stay home- Go Figure- Aren't we tired of all this BS by this divided government?
Market gurus do not think this Monday was the bottom- and that will likely be followed by a deeper decline lower in the weeks ahead. S& P target is potentially another -20% lower - or a sell-off from the highs of -50%.
Despite this- I made some additional investments today- for the likelihood that we will recover from this still low level in the year ahead.
I heard that AMZN is closing 6 US warehouses due to Corona contamination- and we've had a few Amzn deliveries this past week of some food stuff-And have started to spray a 5% clorox solution on any packages or mail- Several jobsite employees have come down with cough and fevers- and are home isolated waiting on taking a test to see if this is Flu- or the more contagious Corona virus at work- The commercial construction is still ongoing and presently declared "essential" but some counties in NC are starting to declare citizens to stay at home- including Durham, Wake this week- and I soon expect Orange- The Counties I live in and work in. I think this is a smart move - to reduce the spread of this disease-
I became aware of how easy this is to spread , as a local post office employee has the virus- So I now open the mailbox with a rubber glove- , and spray the envelopes with a clorox solution before opening-
Gov't offices closed to the public last week- but inspections for our project is still open- presently.

I felt that today's price action waffled on the political impasse and lack of a resolution- That cannot continue- Our lawmakers MUST get a resolution this week- or they should all Resign their positions and let real people represent the populace.

I decided I would Buy some distressed positions- despite the 1 day bounce- so I bought some GE, ARKF, ARKQ VXUS, VIG, JETS

Based on my AGE/RISK according to Vanguard- I should be 45% stock exposure- and 55% Bonds- Presently, I am now over that stock percentage- and not holding any bonds....

All of this noted - including the gov't ineffective reaction to expedite financial resolution to sustain American business and citizens - I think we will not see this evolve into a long term multi-year recession. I think we learn from this as a Country, and build a stronger system to deal with this type of future challenge- perhaps it returns this fall -or winter-
We will be better prepared and adaptable....I believe in the versatility of our system to evole- get the politics aside- and do what is right-

I'm waiting to see how this week ends- ideally with some financial resolution from the gov't - including Aid for all those affected.
Listening to Gottlieb- he suggests that this infection will expand until la\te April to see a peak in growth of the virus- That's a month of more growth to prepare for.

[sd]

We've had a 3rd rally day - and so we are likely extended to the upside- and should expect a pullback---but i bought today regardless.-
Still holding a significant portion in cash - but did add some smaller positions- BND, BNDX, KWEB, HYG.

[ira85]

I've spent many hours watching TV this week, switching between news and CNBC. It really seems like this is a big story and will be talked about many years from now. It seems there is a minority opinion this is a news media creation, blown all out of proportion, and would not be a big deal if it wasn't hyped by main stream media. The argument is we have other diseases that kill a lot of people every year and life goes on for the rest of us. But the main stream rejects that reasoning and asserts without massive intervention a large part of the world population would get sick and millions would die. It seems to be an inescapably high risk argument. We are taking the main steam course, which is terribly disruptive and expensive. Is all of this disruption really needed? But if it is really needed and the consequences of not taking this path would result in millions of deaths and hospitalizations who could defend not taking the disruptive and expensive option? It seems we should go all out to succeed despite the disruption and expense. It would be awful to have millions of people sacrifice and suffer only to give up too soon and have the virus come back fast and strong soon after the Easter break.

I see you bought some BND. I've read some interesting articles recently arguing huge sums of money have been lent to corporations with lax underwriting. The suggestion is that billions and billions are in weak hands. A cash crunch may result from the current shutdown of the economy. That will result in many companies not being able to service their bonds, forcing them into bankruptcy. Reminds me of 2008 and Lehman Brothers. Only this time it's not one sector of the economy, real estate. It's pervasive throughout the economy. A potential for systemic risk. There was a problem something like this in the Great Depression. First the stock market crashed, causing a lot of money to disappear. That left 9,000 banks insolvent and they went out of business. A lot more money disappeared. With the loss of money a deflationary depression resulted.

Some pundits say there is increased risk now for losses to commercial bond holders and sufficient losses could crash the bond markets and the economy. Maybe that's why congress is willing to throw trillions at the economy now, trying to prevent an economic melt down. Congress took no action to save banks during the Great Depression. But they certainly took action in 2008. Congress engineered buyouts and bailouts in 2008-2009, i.e. General Motors, Merrill Lynch, et.al. Maybe Treasuries would be safer and worth paying a little more. And if there really is a systemic risk in bonds, they certainly aren't a safe haven during turmoil. That would require re-thinking portfolio construction, i.e. 60% stock 40% bonds.

We live in interesting times. -ira

[sd]

YES, I think we have to pay attention to this virus- It is in our area here, and counties are going on Shelter-in place policies-
My work project is a County gov't facility so it is exempt from that shelter at home policy- However, we already have had crews going out with the Flu,
and have had increases in the cases and now several deaths-locally- and one person that died was reportedly just 30 years old-
We have had increased separation, even holding meetings outside on a wide open slab - and reducing people entering into our construction offices.
We spray everything touched several times a day-with a 10% clorox solution- and encourage employees to not take change - to wash hands before eating, etc.
When I get home, I carry a spray bottle of solution in the truck- and I spray the mail box, put gloves on, pick up the mail and spread it out and spray both sides of the mail envelopes- and when receiving any packages, we do exactly the same process- Gloves, spray the outside package, and the interior product-
spouse is encouraging me to Retire - Right- NOW! and remain at home-
While beach areas are reportedly restricted here-the greenways are open - with separation - we have miles of walking and biking trails here - presently the boat ramps are open- and I'm ready to get separation by putting myself close to some fish this weekend!
YES- I did buy some bond funds- I am presently primarily weighted in stocks and so I looked and decided I would put some smaller % into some of the bond funds - also recommended by Vanguard-
For my age (and yours) their recommendation would be 55% in bonds and only 45% in stock-
I added some positions this week- and we've had a nice bounce off the Monday lows- So, I will likely pause the trigger finger for any other buying- I want to keep some cash if we break down and see the markets -45 or -50%- I'm willing to sit through this without trailing everything with stops - due to the volatility- but I'll put some stops under areas that may achieve a decent larger gain- ZM for example- I did elect to stop out for a very small gain in TDOC- yesterday- but it's up +10% from where I sold- Spouse had her stop a bit lower than mine- and so -....
Today, my bond funds and VPU- Utilities are gaining- small % while everything else is in the red.
The TLT is making an Ascending Triangle- with the flat top high @ 167.00 - perfect setup for a Buy-Stop- but it's floating here on the gov't stimulus-

My present mind set- is that I know I am going to likely see more downside in what I've bought in the past 2 weeks- and I plan to buy more of broad funds-not trying to be buying too many individual stocks-because I think I can shift into an investor mindset vs trader- believing that even with possibly greater downside ahead, Most of what I purchased was at a nice discount - That said, If we should find reasons to see a nice 5-10% rally, I'd likely try to jump on the uptrending fast ema with a tight stop-loss- and lock in some gains.
Along the ideas of a shifting/alternating Assets- This decline and high volatilty would be similar to other periods of high market volatility- and Ideal to research to determine how the strategy could be applied-
Conversely, it would also be interesting to compare how a simple rebalancing strategy based on shifting from the bonds:stocks will end up performing over the longer term here.\
I had initially taken today off as a vacation day, and have CNBC on and seeing all the RED- Work caught up, and so I haven't really viewed the net holdings today- so no Angst -
I'll view things this pm, and perhaps reconsider.

[sd]

A Personal note:
Today, the NC Governor declared the entire State will now "Shelter in Place" - The impact of this virus is only starting to sink in to the majority of the public.
I actually would agree that this appears to be the most prudent way to reduce the impact of this virus-
Obviously, the elderly & those with health complications are at a greater risk of dying from this virus. but the impact to all of the small business owners that get by month by month will be the most affected. Both of my daughters have relatively narrow margin businesses that they have operated for years- both were mandated to CLOSE last week, by the County- due to this virus- and Now the State the government edict - Closes all non essential business in the State-

When we come out of this, both of my daughters business's will be impacted-and trying to start over -from scratch- People will have lost their jobs, customers will not wish to spend what dollars they have on non-essentials, and yet- their landlords and mortgage holders will have their hands out for payment. How long will it take for their business to return to it's prior vitality? Can they survive the slow and gradual restoration of what they had tried to build before the virus?

Difficult choices for many Americans facing the impacts of this Virus! My Spouse realizes that we are personally financially solvent -and also fall into the Higher Risk category- Age and health concerns..... and that I could elect potentially to retire immediately and greatly reduce the potential for exposure if we both now would Shelter at Home-
Financial considerations are - If I continue to work, I could supplement my daughters expenses and help keep their business's alive- over the next months.
If I stay working, I could backstop their businesses and could not if I retire.
These are the type of issues and hard questions that millions of small business owners will face- over the next Months- not just weeks- and the recovery period is one of a market coming out of the greatest scare in a decade- Both Financial- and healthwise- something of a double -whammy. and different from 2008- although the financial impacts likely are as serious as then.
This brings the virus impact home and personal- without anyone in our immediate family contracting the disease.
it is an ever growing concern in our local counties as the infected count grows rapidly-
To those living in unaffected areas- do not be complacent- it will reach out and be in your area in the near future- and I would recommend taking the appropriate steps- Food supplies, Clorox solution, Spray bottles- - and be sure to disinfect the US Mail and any Prime or Fed-EX or UPS deliveries. Very serious about this simple and overlooked step-

As some AMZN warehouses /centers have closed due to contamination, take steps when
receiving any deliveries or us mail packages- i actually have a spray bottle with a clorox solution and spray down all deliveries- This virus reportedly can last days on some surfaces- Why not on the US mail- UPS- FEDX- AMZN- Who licked the envelope last???
Ideally, this virus will be but a brief note in the declines of 2020- and will not become the Hallmark of a decline that we struggle to overcome-

But -edit add- this will be a huge disruption to all of the small businesses that make up 50% of the employment in the US- This is a huge impact to all of those that hoped to see this through - and we are only now realizing there likely is no quick return to "normal" What will the post Corona world look like?

[sd]

Escaped out to the lake- Plenty of compliant isolation out on the waters!

i.imgur.com/1W5vU7P.jpg

[sd]

A number of authors on SA make valid points that this virus is an unknown- and while we may think we are containing this virus this spring may only see it return this fall- further disrupting our way of life and extending the fear- and economic disruption- One author equates this to the era of the great depression
seekingalpha.com/article/4334592-dollar-cost-averaging-great-depression?ifp=0&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=spy-enormous-bounce&utm_campaign=nl-etf-daily&utm_content=link-1


Eric Parnell makes a similarly bearish case for what potentially lies ahead: seekingalpha.com/article/4334374-you-one-week-to-decide?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-widget

As the one author pointed out- The Great Depression had an initial pullback followed by a large rally that then declined for years- That rally was the last opportunity to salvage some
assets- It was a sharp downhill decline after.

My thought process has been more limited-and- perhaps unfortunately more optimistic- that this will be a relatively short lived disruption and that we will return to a new normal over this and the next year- I felt that putting cash to work as the markets dropped to -20%, -30% , was a smart long term investment act - But perhaps I have put too large a % of the freed cash back into the markets too early? The Dire outlook these authors- and others- have certainly is worth considering as a valid possibility.
I also had shifted the allocations into a larger amount of dividend payers-and some bond exposures- something I had never considered to do while I was actively following the uptrending markets - with a trailing stop-loss approach . In Hindsight- that stop-loss approach worked exactly as designed- exiting into cash as the momentum stalled and prices dropped below the fast ema- Buying the dips over the past decade had been the right approach- so is this time going to be altogether different? Are we going to spiral into a recession- or world wide depression? Will we be able to develop a vaccination -similar to the attempt to provide a Flu vaccination- that is not 100% effective?

Presently I'm holding the "investments" without any Stops- and I bought more as we rallied this week- with the Friday decline I'm just about at Break-even -from Jan Net Account value .
With 75% now invested- perhaps I will look to trail some stops if we manage to rally higher in the weeks ahead-

It will be interesting to see how the other account we hold with an adviser does - It included a large % in bonds and also 50% in a fixed annuity- which is totally protected from any loss in value-
My adviser sent out a group e-mail - and my response to him was to "Gird Thy Loins-" more difficult times ahead

I'm not calling him- we will see how this works out for our accounts- as the allocations he has put myself and my spouse in does not try to beat the market. and so should not see the major decline in total value that the market has sustained.

My Spouse has kept an 90% cash allocation in her Roth-

I hold about 20% in Free cash-and wish it was higher-
Do not believe the bottom was reached - i was simply optimistic and opportunistic.

[sd]

3-30 Markets closed up 3% + today, and so my net investments are Now in the green- by about 1.5% - Still have a -$1500 red value on VFMV- got that one wrong! But offset by most of the others- While with today's price action, the Market- via SPY is still down -22% below the Feb highs- And that really tells the story -
A typical account -Buy and Hold- with the majority of it's assets market focused would likely be down that -22% -
My stop-loss protection put me into a large % cash position as prices finally broke down-
Also, I had converted a company IRA account into a money market account in order to easily roll those assets into the Vanguard IRA- That cash rollover took 3 + weeks, and by then we were in the decline- and I was in cash- and talking to a Vanguard adviser person who would have taken control of what % I gave them and done an immediate asset allocation approach with those dollars. despite the tenor of the market at that time being very negative- I did invest in VTI and VXUS as they would have done- but at the lower prices.

I think for an average of a -5% loss from the highs using the fast ema and believing we were well extended-and possibly overpriced- as many had suggested. I need to someday bother to go back and verify that horn I'm tooting-but the proof is in the pudding- I think I have been very lucky overall- and my wife's Roth account has been 94% in cash off the Feb high pullback- Her choice to sit in cash and not buy at bargain prices- She's just holding some ZM and TDOC with trailing stops-
However, it's good to understand that a stop-loss strategy - at least as I apply it- underperforms the buy and hold investor in good times- until a significant decline comes into play-
So, it's a trade-off- A stop-loss strategy will allow me to invest in "Risky" assets - like overweight Tech- and get whipsawed out on minor pullbacks- That require you to have the fortitude to take the reentry at a higher price as the trend resumes- That- in a nut shell is the crux of momentum investing- Get on the train when it's moving in your direction- knowing you will get derailed somewheres up the line-
But this takes work- your time- and paying attention- not too close though- and it's your time that you pay the price on- Time that could be spent on doing other things- A show with the spouse- or a ball game with the grandkids- and one eventually wonders when the pursuit of enough $$$ to provide for a distant future has lost the vision of what is truly important today. Your Health-
HERE we are- This Black Swan event of a Corona Virus has totally fractured the economic and social equilibrium of our society- and most of the rest of the world-
Some of us will not survive-this pandemic- and I hope that my wife and I are not among the casualties- but my continuing to go to the jobsite puts US at a higher risk of exposure instead of isolating-at Home- because the job is deemed to be an "essential" gov't project- it remains open. A co-worker /supervisor is out today with chills and sweats- and told to stay home tomorrow- but you are possibly contagious before the symptoms actually manifest themselves-

Putting this in perspective - Country singer Joe Diffee- How could he have caught this virus at age 61 and died? Already? it seems it has only been here in the US for a few short weeks-
How vulnerable we all are to this pandemic-! i thought it was just serious for the geriactric group- where I am one... The disease was actually manufactured to take out those collecting SS benefits as a way to balance the budget and the entitlement program- You are darn right- I feel entitled and want to collect!
I think JOE- he would like to see this viewed-He had a sense of humor ...God bless! And it makes me recall the 1st bar I entered on my entry into Texas in 1978- Plywood on all the windows-you don't even have to ask why! But it was a memory that lasted 40 years !

www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMiEFyTuuh8


While i hope the intent of this thread i've kept on-going over the years has been instructive periodically for the challenges of learning to trade- It certainly is not an exact science- but stay with one thing and only adjust in micro steps-
But for retiring with some serious cushion for lifes events: primarily invest for the long term- don't trade away your investments- you'll get there if you stay the course and invest with broad etfs and stay the course.
It boils down to invest early in life with the employers IRA- But Max out every nickel into your tax fee (after retirement) Roth you can stand!

Max out your Roth IRA after you got your employers match in the conventional IRa. and Only Trade WITH the Trend- forget your ego and premonitions and market expectations- and be willing to step aside and sit on your hands when the markets get stupid- But Buy any time the market declines -20% ( But Do not Buy any individual stock-because it declines - they are possibly broken altogether-)
Stay the course when the market crashes and know you are buying at a discount!

And Pay attention when the Pandemic suggests you should isolate and not contaminate your Spouse and Family ! The Risk is so high for a few weeks of sustaining a paycheck- Bad trade when considering the Risk to reward set up- It's the space between the ears that needs to come into the reality of what we are all potentially facing-in the days and weeks ahead-
The spread of this virus likely goes exponential in many communities - and so the isolation decree extends through the entire month of April now- An obvious concession to the serious long term impact-

I felt compelled to keep doing what I do because I can then backstop my family /daughters financially through this- But my oldest daughter made it clear to me today that she would rather have her Mother and I alive and not exposed and her business go under.....
That's the real perspective I need to listen to- Because that's Family -and that is what counts in this life!

[sd]

Sliding back into negative territory with today's large sell-off. Will we go below the prior lows? Quite possibly -yes- as it has been pointed out by many that we are in uncharted territories- and a lot of damage has been done to the many millions of small businesses, that may never return .
The consumer psyche- may now hold onto their excess funds instead of spending.
A Day like today makes me wish I had taken some of my position off and back into cash- to purchase at the -50% target- but Cash is indeed King- I feel I allowed my new found willingness to be a knowing investor and buying into the declines was perhaps overly optimistic- I should have scaled in with a lower %- but I think i can attribute that the -20 % was almost always -in this past bull- a solid place to jump in - but not so much in past historical large declines-
A very negative outlook - seemingly backed up with a logical analysis on SA :
seekingalpha.com/article/4334820-next-leg-down-another-massive-decline-is-coming?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-widget

One of the saving graces- I think- is that I have already received some small dividend payments- but that also comes with a likely price decline-
But, as long as one has their health today, that is a blessing- and more important than focusing on the day to day market action and volatility.
I totally recognize that We- Spouse and I - are more fortunate than many- I'm still employed with a decent income, can survive on my SS - and do not have to rely on our IRA's to with draw for income-
I only plan to do that when I have to take the RMDs- Shifting cash into assets and embracing an investor mode may prove to be an optimistic and naive mistake on my part-
A little less optimism and more critical thinking to evaluate the serious impact across this country would have been prescient- but If I had that skill set I'd be running a billion dollar hedge fund vs a construction project - LOL!
Worth mentioning- The Adviser that manages a portion of my IRA had myself and my wife both put a portion into a Fixed Hybrid Annuity as part of being diversified and in a "Safe" investment- bucket several years ago - that is guaranteed to not lose Any value- can only appreciate - although modestly- and could be used to take monthly withdrawals for additional income as needed - typically a 10 year -period for not taking major withdrawals without penalty- but these fixed and insured asset income allocations are worth considering to add some stability to a portfolio. Use these with a trusted adviser, as there are a lot of expensive sub par Annuity funds out there.

[ira85]

Regarding our 2 crises, the market and the virus. . . It would be easy to dismiss me as a nut case. But I'm not perennially frightened or gloomy. I do think we will see dramatic changes in the years ahead. I try to practice the old advice “Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.” So to me, my somewhat apocalyptic thinking is just rational preparation in case things go really badly.

Debt. Even with the huge stimulus package, the long interruption of commerce will cause enormous debts and defaults. Your daughters are prime examples. Lots of honest, hard working, tax paying citizens are going to be seriously hurt by this virus. There will be lots and lots of bankruptcies. Young people who are smart, hard working, honest citizens will work their way up the food chain and be okay eventually. But the old, poor, not so smart will suffer losses they will never get back. Elder poverty is a subject I seldom hear about, but I think it will be a real problem in the future. We used to have pensions. My dad, mother, grandfather, and father-in-law all had pensions. I'm the only family member with a pension now. I'm not considering a 401(K) or IRA as a pension. It seems lots of people have very little in their IRA or 401(K) or they just plain don't have one. I see homeless people occasionally now. I think it will be much more common in the future. It will happen gradually. The differences between the haves and the have-nots will be greater. Ten years from now I think we'll see lots more homeless folks. Accumulating a sufficiently large IRA to retire comfortably takes quite a skill set, intelligence, hard work, patience, a supportive spouse, diligence. To establish such a difficult standard that only maybe one person in 10 will succeed seems unreasonable. Also in your IRA and 401(K) most of your investment choices are stocks and bonds. Having your pension plan running on stocks and vulnerable to huge losses doesn't seem sensible to me. Too much risk and volatility.

The federal government will try to avoid a deflationary depression by using infinite stimulus, QE etc.
So far that's worked out wonderfully, i.e. we went 11 years with the most recent bull market, nearly 3 times the average length of a bull market. We had low unemployment, a strong dollar, no inflation and generally stable markets. But wait. Some would argue there was lots of inflation. It was in the stock market. Stock valuation was where the inflation went. No one complains about it there. Some would say the market was fairly valued because interest rates were so low. But interest rates are so low because they have been manipulated to stimulate the economy. They are not fairly valued as to how a free market would value them on supply and demand. We now have a debt bubble and what's left of the stock bubble.

The question now is, “Can we manage these bubbles without causing a new crisis?” Federal government debt is growing exponentially. And congress will keep feeding the beast because the consequences of not doing it at this time are terrible. But since we have this beast that needs continuous QE, when will there ever be an opportunity to balance the federal budget? It seems hardly anyone cares about the federal budget. It's been growing and growing for years. Now we are projecting multi-trillion $ programs. What's the harm in spending a trillion here and a trillion there. We used to say our grand children will be paying for this budget deficit. But now we know they will be like us and won't pay anything on the principle owed. They will pay something each year and just add the rest to the deficit. What could go wrong with that strategy? Inflation. If we print money by the truck load, some day a truck load of that money won't buy what it used to. When the debate was running on the current 2 trillion stimulus I didn't hear anything about the danger in running up such a huge deficit. Deep down I think lots of people know it won't work in the long run. But it can and probably will work in the short run. It seems like no one is thinking about the long run. Money printing has been tried, 1923 Weimar Republic. It didn't work.

Some thoughts from a novice investor. How does any of this affect us now, this week? I think we have further to go with this bear. Possibly a lot further. Instead of grabbing a number out of the air and saying that will be the bottom of this bear market, I want to watch and listen closely and let the market tell me. That may sound crazy, but what I mean is to watch the moving averages, the volume, the number of new highs and new lows. What are the trends and how strong are they. I tried this the past few days. The initial leg down was with very strong volume and lots of volatility. I was tempted to go short, but after about 4 days of that first big move I was afraid I had missed it and we were setting up for a relief rally. I thought about trying to get on the relief rally. But instead of chasing that counter trend move I decided to wait for the primary trend to assert itself. The relief rally came as expected but was surprisingly strong. As the smoke cleared, I figured the next move would be the primary trend, i.e. down. The action on Friday afternoon showed SDS move up. I bought some SDS on Friday afternoon, March 27. It had a big day today, April 1, up 7.8%. I plan to keep watching it and I'll sell if it seems the trend has changed. I know leveraged funds can kill. I'll have to pay close attention and sell when it goes against me. I know it will go against me. I have to be prepared for another relief rally. I think lots of people want to buy low and they don't want to miss that opportunity. But I think this bear may last till this time next year. It looks like the virus is going to be very destructive to the world economies. That will contribute to lengthening this bear market. I think I'll have opportunities to buy low months from now. I want to just take what the market seems to be giving me, and work it patiently. I know I'll probably get whip sawed several times before the next bull is firmly in place. Heck, whip saws seem to be inescapable, a part of the natural order of things. But I figure I can't sit back and hope the market doesn't leave me behind. It seems like the way to avoid whipsaws is to buy and hold. But that exposes me to the risk of a huge downside. -ira

[sd]

I tend to Agree with much of what you wrote-
"Young people who are smart, hard working, honest citizens will work their way up the food chain and be okay eventually. But the old, poor, not so smart will suffer losses they will never get back. Elder poverty is a subject I seldom hear about, but I think it will be a real problem in the future. We used to have pensions. My dad, mother, grandfather, and father-in-law all had pensions. I'm the only family member with a pension now. I'm not considering a 401(K) or IRA as a pension. It seems lots of people have very little in their IRA or 401(K) or they just plain don't have one.
People do not hold a vision of the need to plan today for a Tomorrow they do not control- Much less one 30 years in their future-The concept that one is responsible for their own survival is simply an archaic notion, The gov't has long provided a safety net of minimal value to those without the inclination to take responsibility .
We are likely in the process of a long term social change precipitated by the Corona virus accentuating the precarious balance of social and medical imbalances that our society will need to address for life- as we know it- to hope to proceed- as we move forward. We are now totally reliant on a government social medical health care system with no co-pays etc for the corona virus- Our health care system has long been due for an over haul, and even the Republicans have totally failed to come up with a viable alternative to affordable healthcare-
So, this crisis magnifies the fragility of a healthcare system that only supports those with high cost medical insurance policies that- those millions now thrown out of work can no longer pay...through no fault of their own!. We are now at a point we are offering socialized medicine for those with the virus- no cost testing etc, in an effort to prevent an absolute spread of this contagion.

Your point about the lack of pensions - and the pension substitute - the 401 k - so true-
We live in a society that has learned to possess it now and to pay for it later-for years if necessary- and to defer making plans for the rainy day that may come-
The entire structure of what has been the status-quo- will come under review - but out of the pain of this experience of financial and personal loss- we may become a more disciplined society ready to listen/remember the simple wisdoms our parents learned and attempted to teach us, following the great depression era They grew up in- We likely do not recognize that we live in a truly affluent society, large houses, expensive cars, expensive educations - all funded on credit and the presumption that the music keeps playing for decades.

I realize my perspective is biased-but I feel so many people feel government should provide for them as the safety net- and -unfortunately- government certainly has to do so as a temporary stop-gap measure to simply sustain those that would otherwise be destitute - and would perhaps resort to other unacceptable measures- to try to sustain themselves and their families- The longer this continues , the more stressed the system will become in the weeks ahead.
Over the long term, one of the benefits that should be learned by all is the need to accumulate a financial safety net- to sustain your family for months- not just a week or two-
Dave Ramsey recommendations look extremely desirable here- Coincidental with the growing wealth inequality issue, is that the financial spending habits and credit/debt of individuals is designed to keep people paying interest to financial companies as they provide easy credit at high return rates - and that is designed to keep the borrower indebted- for as long as possible.

Even after this pandemic resides- and things attempt to resume to some semblance on normalcy, very few individuals will likely attempt to change their own behaviors and sense of personal responsibilities- We have now constructed a society that has expectations to live for today and pay for tomorrow- that will be hard to change- and to what extent they rely and can get by on some gov't stipend- The astute and strong will find the determination to not expect to be reliant on anyone beyond themselves- but so many will not have the mental resilience to push beyond the idea that the gov't will bail you out- Perhaps this is the result of the evolution of technology , leaving the larger population with a smaller share of the income- while at the same time providing those with the bare essentials - housing/food etc to exist.

i would like to think that this pandemic will result in more people resolving to protect themselves as they move forward- over the next years- and learn to become financially solvent to sustain themselves with a financial rainy day - or month- cushion- Ramsey style- and then to learn to live on only a part of their paycheck- and invest 15% early in life-with all debt paid off- but that may be unrealistic for most-

The income gap is only growing wider - pensions are only offered by gov't and universities largely- and social security is a pittance after decades of working-
i think it's great to have a social support network for those less fortunate- it's society's responsibility to take care of those unable to fend for themselves- for legitimate reasons.

Over the last 50 years of working- I had only relied on an unemployment subsidy for a few months back in the winter of 1976- I think in upstate NY.....
In 1983/4 , During the Texas/Arab Oil embargo- the economy crashed in Texas, We left Houston, and My wife and 1.5 year old daughter lived out of our pick up truck/ w camper shell in Texas state parks - as we relocated to Austin where a job could be found-Austin- where I walked in with my tool belt on and told them I was there to go to work- And I Did-
Scary times when everything is on the line and you have no idea where the money for food or rent will come from- And it never occurred to me to seek out other social support networks- and thankfully it never got to that point- but there were some tough times that truly made us stronger because we pushed through as a family -because there was no viable alternative in our minds-

Today , this is different- Back then i could relocate and find a way to find a job and keep my family safe- Today, jobs are going away- and it's country wide- and there is not much light at the end of the tunnel - until this is over- and it will be- But life lessons should and will be learned- people will now know how quickly a paycheck can disappear and another not be available- that should prompt savings - and a safety net- to become a priority- Long term investment needs to be a part of everyone's weekly check- and not wait to be done in the last 20 years - -

SDS trade- If you can stand the volatility- Eat some Rolaids- but do not bet large- A small rally today off of yesterday's decline- would be upsetting-
I would use stop losses to protect my entry level initially if price closed in my favor- Good luck!

[sd]

Markets rallied +7% today- and I bought some MSFT this pm today in the trading account with the proceeds from selling ZM -
My trading account is all in the red- My biggest loser there is JETS- which I bought hearing about the bailout - but I was early and wrong.
Today's rally pushed my Vanguard Roth & IRA back into the green- net up + 1.5% overall-At today's close, the Spy is down -21% from the highs- The rally today was prompted by possibly optimistic news on the possible flattening of the infection curve in those cities most profoundly affected.

As my wife and I- My children, and my co-workers- all are learning to adapt to this virus contagion- it has given me time to consider what the future will be - and it will definitely be different . Both of my daughters will struggle to pick up their small businesses once this present flush of the virus is contained- Like millions of small businesses , they are trying to get funding- to keep their heads above water- but will the retail market be there for them in 3 months?
And what about the Fall season- when the Flu always returns- what will prevent the more contagious Corona virus from returning this Fall? And just because you had it once does not mean you are now immune, because Korea has 51 cases of confirmed reinfection....

i now believe that this virus will impact the world more like the smallpox and polio viruses did in the 1950's- until a vaccine eventually eradicated those diseases.
Consider a resumption of the virus this Fall, following our present efforts of stay-at home- and relative isolation- Do we get a short summer reprieve and an attempt to return to normalcy this summer? Dr Gottlieb is expecting this virus to return this fall-

i think the social and economic impact is underestimated - That said, I now feel I was perhaps premature in buying as prices dropped- While net profitable at this lower level, I do not think the Risk is worth the reward to be too heavily invested - I think I went in overweight -anxious to be a buyer at a large discount- but the reality of what we may be facing is that we will not return to the normal world of yesterday any time soon. - I will plan to sell 2/3 of present holdings- and allow the balance to return to cash- and will set Limit sell orders for the market open 4-7- in the Vanguard accounts- I will hope that the market opens higher tomorrow, and that my limit orders -based on today's close- will get filled on a higher open-

Selling 134 Vig@107
44 VGT @ $ 219
66 Voog @ $ 153.00
366 VXUS @ $42.50
60 VTI @ $132.00
120 VFMV @ $73.00
100 VPU @ $122,00
170 ARKQ @ $ 33.00

[ira85]

Update on my Roth IRA. I recently turned over administration of my traditional IRA to a wealth manager here in the small town where I live. I kept the Roth IRA to mange myself. I had a history of neglecting maintenance of my investment accounts. I want to learn something about responsible stewardship of my investments. At my age and health status responsible stewardship also means turning over the management of I disagreeets to someone younger in the next few years. So my plan is to run the Roth for a year or two and monitor the traditional IRA. If I'm satisfied with the professional's work, I'll turn it all over to the young pro.

I took over management of my Roth IRA in mid-March. It was 100% cash. On Friday March 27 I bought shares of SDS, about a 10% position. SDS is an inverse S&P 500 ETF with 2x leverage. I bought it at 31.52. We got off to a good start and had a nice gain on April 1. Then some sideways action and boom, a gap down opening this morning, April 6. Opened at 29.99. The price went down very gradually through the day, then quickly dropped a little more than a dollar in the last 10 minuets of the day. I've been looking at charts of the action in the past few days and of the past couple of months with SDS and SPY. What I see in the past couple of months is very high volatility, far, far greater than normal. The magnitude today was big, but not amazingly so. Most of the really big moves have been to the downside in the past couple of months. Today stands out because it was to the upside. My goal is to catch most of the major trend and ride out the brief counter-trend rallies.

The 20, 50, and 200 day EMS's are in a bearish array. Doesn't look like a trend change. There were 2733 advancing stocks today and only 276 declining. But on the preceding trading day, Friday, April 3 it was heavy the other way with 632 advancing and 2340 declining. Today there were 6 new highs and only 20 new lows. On Friday there were only 2 new highs and 180 new lows. New highs and lows look like the market is pretty deep in bear territory. The charts, the A/D data and the highs and lows all seem to be saying this is a counter trend rally. The main trend is still down. So I don't plan to sell tomorrow. The previous counter trend rally went up about 21% from the low, I think I recall. It surprised me how strong it was.

The news is a factor also. The news this past weekend was terrible. It seemed to me there might be two stories supporting this rally. The new cases graph for New York seemed to be flattening, as all have hoped. That is certainly good news, but expected. Not a surprise. I wouldn't think that would support a long rally. The other news is how all the politicians seem to be supporting the federal government doing everything possible to dig us out of this disaster no matter the cost. And a lot of the programs announced so far have been oriented to helping people get back to work and getting back to business as usual before the virus. Giving the green light to any reasonable recovery program no matter the cost, that might support quite a rally. GLD was flat Friday and up today. That would go along with the possibility people are thinking the fiscal/financial green light is on and that may feed a speedier than expected recovery. ACK!! I just realized this is a new version of Marty Zwieg's market wisdom, "Don't fight the fed." I may be on the wrong side if the Fed is the reason for the surge Monday. I'll stay with my plan for now, i.e. treat this as a counter trend rally and give it some room, expecting the primary trend to resume leadership within a few days. But if this surge seems to have any legs I better bail. I don't want to fight the fed. They have home field advantage. -ira

[realdeal]

Hey SD,

It was a pretty explosive rally the other day to say the least. What really has changed overall fundamentally? When this finally passes, we are forever changed and can’t go back like you alluded to.
ZM was a call out last Wednesday possible buy at 125, not a call out by me. It looked like a good short which moved before I can buys puts. The other day 4/6 ZM barely held onto that uptrend line. Their looks to be reasonable support at 105, and possible half formed Head and shoulders in the works which is not good.

JETS, was a short that I was in and got shook out, for a small loss, and it declined over three dollars for that week,on my public list as well. I was looking for it to test it lows, and that Accum/dist line was at levels not seen for the life of the chart.

In the discord chat I’m a member of “7 members in total now” a question was asked to everyone about what stocks you would buy for the long-term say three years or so. The creator of channel said fundamentals first and we can use TA for entries. My thoughts were geared to Food groceries, robotics, sanitizing.

I came up with KR, couldn’t give multiple FA reasons but a pretty good looking chart compared to others in the sector. Robotics because we were headed to robots replacing humans anyway, now this can be ushered in quicker due to the virus. A Horn & Hardart futuristic version we may very well see. I read years ago in the UK they already have robot burger flippers. MSFT, GOOG, IRBT, a few others do this to a degree but everyone in the chat loved Boston Dynamic which is owned by Softbank “SFTBY”. BOTZ you used to own, maybe a play as well. I couldn’t decide.

Sanitizing more like cleaning and less a product like say Clorox. There will be some limits all around I would think, but everywhere should be sanitized. I couldn’t seem to find a public company yet. Someone came up with WM but I don’t see that.

Airlines on a separate note, I was thinking as well, need to do something about the recycled air, someone is sick forget about it. Who is going change the way the air flows?

This virus brings out the best in people which the media could focus even a small % on would be nice. Some things never change around my community they are not social distancing and to a degree petty things are still going on. We are all in this together, you believe people were still going to the clubhouse gym, until it was locked down. They are worried about the pool opening as well. Yeah good luck with that.

I fear the same thing as well with it becoming seasonal. If one has antibodies that blood can be used to help others, I wonder if there will be a test for that. My cousin is a nurse in Staten Island she said that’s the next hot spot, so it sounds if it peaks say CA,NY,NJ there will be other states/boroughs getting hit hard. I pray for my cousin and others and the woman up the block which I help out here and there. She works the ER in a New York hospital, and some of the things I heard I’m not going post. She did say a day or so back it’s slowing down the last three days, so perhaps the media in some regard is not lying, but I trust the people on the ground more.

So prepare for the new normal and we all have to adapt or adjust our portfolios. We are still in a bear market probably like no other ever, so take it one day at time. Take care stay healthy and safe to you and family.

-rd