SD-2020 TRADING WITH THE TIDE

[sd]

I had my 1st lower limit order fill today in VGT- Picked up 20 shares below my limit order on the gap down open-(Surprise !)
I was surprised to see this hit on day 1 ...
This is actually not a large decline- about 7% on the tech sector- 5% on the SPY- typical small pullback - but it gapped down well below the 50 ema-in one day-
I think the large % gap down open across most indexes took many by surprise- but I also expect that this will expand and prices should reasonably decline lower as people assess the impact of a possible spread to a global contagion- - I would guess that the global disruption will have impact on several quarters of earnings-
I'm selecting some arbitrary lower levels to place increased buy limits- certainly that is a discount from the prices in 2020- but this could make 2019 valuations more relevant.

I have to comment -that the aggressive approach I had with stops in January took a -3% stop that saw a rebound and me chasing- and then implementing another level of higher trailing stops- sees me up conservatively for this year, while all the indexes are below the 2020 gains- It's also more appropriate for someone in my position (age) to take measures to protect assets
The defensive investments I took previously- VPU, TLT, SLV- Well, VPU had a down red bar day and will likely stop out tomorrow for a net gain. TLT now has a stop @ 149, and SLV moved higher- Relatively small % positions that favored a defensive posture-

Could this scare turn into a global pandemic? Perhaps- Could it initiate an overdue correction to more moderate valuations- Most certainly that will be one effect.
The opportunity is to get positioned at prices that are no longer at a 24x pe - and I would even suggest that an added -5 to -10 from today's move is not unreasonable over the next weeks- unless the news suggests that all is well, and that things are returning to "normal"
It's a good time to reassess one's approach. If one has cash- put in a very low % limit order on quality - not on the spec names.
And, no reason to think this will reverse higher in a week and then go right back up- I think this is a wake-up call to a lot of investors along for the uphill ride- and likely will be more demanding as we move forward- A good gut-check for those that felt like All is Well.....And should a quick snap-back rally occur- trail a stop at the 5 ema. This thing should have some legs that affect the economies for a quarter or two-

[ira85]

I'm gonna try to put a table in here. Rats,it didn't work. Well, I'll edit the text and make do with what I have. It would have been spectacular!

This table would have shown some comparisons of performance for last year, the full year 2019 versus the performance today, one day. There are a few unexpected results.

Vanguard Growth lost more today than did Vanguard Value, as expected. But for the full year Value beat Growth by a bit. So there is some suggestion of out performance by Value. Growth has beaten Value for several years. Likewise, Low Volatility lost about half as much today as SPY, as expected. But it lost less than Dividend Aristocrats while just gaining slightly more than the Aristocrats for the full year 2019. If you want something with less risk than SPY and pretty good upside potential, take a look at the low volatility ETF's.

Big movers today were VIXY with an 18% one day gain. But notice it lost 62% last year. VIXY loses a lot every year. The only way to play it is like a day trader. It can have explosive up moves, but they don't last long.

Notice the 25 year Treasury ETF was up nicely today AND was up 21% last year. As long as there's another round of QE and interest rates keep going lower, then long dated Treasuries can keep out performing. But after 39 years of falling interest rares, this move will come to and end some time.

Lastly, gold miners, GDX, had an up day gaining 1.31% and gained 40% last year. Does that bode well for gold mining? Maybe, but the action wasn't very enthusiastic during the day today. GDX opened near it's high for the day. It then sold off with volume dropping as the share prices fell. During the day volume seemed to pick up a bit when the price was falling and volume tended to drop as price went up. GDX has just passed the high point of the past year at $31. It looks like it may be out of gas. I'd watch it and make sure it holds around $31 and makes another move up with stronger volume. If it stalls, I'd look elsewhere. -ira

[ira85]

Feb 25, 2020 1:20:32 GMT -5 ira85 said:

I almost forgot . . . TSLA was a big loser Monday closing down -7.46%. SPCE on the other hand was one of the few winners Monday closing up 1.24%. -ira

[sd]

I'm gonna try to put a table in here. Rats,it didn't work. Well, I'll edit the text and make do with what I have. It would have been spectacular!


Hey IRA- If you want to post a screenshot-try this:
Sharex is a simple but flexible free program to take a screenshot and paste the link into an e-mail or a post. My limited use of it is as follows:
You download Sharex- getsharex.com/
There are video tutorials on Youtube-
Once downloaded and on your taskbar- when you have a table or screenshot that you want to take a photo of-
Open Sharex- click on CAPTURE- a menu appears to the right- select Region- your mouse develops a crosshair- bring it to the top left edge of what you want to take a screenshot, click and scroll right and down- similar to Copy and paste. Highlight want you want to take a picture of- release mouse button- pic is taken- Click on the right menu
Click on Save-Upload, Copy URL - - the pic is uploaded- and a image appears for a moment on the lower right of your screen- Click on the image and it goes to the imgur host site-
Highlight and copy the URL- Paste into your post.

There may be an easier way to accomplish this- but it works for me- I think the program offers a great amount of flexibility- I haven't explored it beyound the simple screenshot-

[sd]

2-25
Markets down hard again today- Dow exceeded -1,000 for a bit- Indexes on average all down at least -3%- tech -2.75%
Center for Disease control-Spokesperson - "Expect significant disruption"
While the major indexes are only down -7 or -8% over 2 days, the dow lost -1900 pts- and things closed low-
What to expect? I fully anticipate that the disruption in the economic cycle will be a big factor - and -should the disease actually cause any scares- containments in the US- All bets are off- I'd be expecting a -50% decline- in a short period- But -15 - 20% is certainly a potential based on the news we get over the next few weeks.
Check out the chart from 2018- Notice that the events had a down week- big red bar- attempt to rally the next week- followed by a lower week, and then some rally attempts, and finally wholesale selling over the weeks into December-
i.imgur.com/I7DpCRp.png
The big red bar on the right side of the screen reflects just the 2 days price action of this week -2-24, 25. I view the prior basing periods of 2019 as potential support zones- and I think that has to erase the steady uptrend from Oct 2019- for about a -13% move at the 300 level- and the range extends down to -285- or -17% from the peak high. Below that, it's a short drop for a -20% move- but these are rare.
I don't expect this market to move down at one time- there will be attempts to reverse higher- Bull traps I would submit- We were clearly overbought in this market, with the PE value at the high side pushing up prices- and I think there will be a new perspective of realistic value- as some of the air has gotten pushed out of what some viewed as the start of an inflated bubble-of sorts-
So, where does the market return to a "value" - 14x? 15x? or do we just get back to a 15-18 x multiple for the averages? Bsased on the math - 24x -18x is a 6x difference-or about -25% ? Not sure that that basic equation works- but I would think that there will be a reshuffling of values given to tech-
I'm going to revisit my limit order entries- Assuming I manage to pick up a position @ -13%- that would be approx at a 10% discount from where I exited on average- That may be a good average entry order - and I could hold for a drop a few % lower. Presently, I'm good being largely in cash- SLV sold off for a small gain today, TLT moved higher.
I had a small limit order for VGT that filled below - at the 50 ema, and that had closed higher- that sold on my raised stop- for a small loss.
For nimble players-some opportunity exists to capture a reaction relief move higher- but there is nothing of substance to reassure investors that this will be under control quickly.
The big FANG names - all down sharply- Why will we not see a valuation reset on the conservative side? Semis- down sharply-

As IRA noted- the low volatility funds lost less % wise- but lost - as this eventually settles out -I don't expect a return immediately to a big momentum push back to the old valuations- At least in the short term, investors are getting a bit of a wake-up call.....

[sd]

Hmm- was just filled on a small position in ARKQ -I think -10% below it's recent high- I will give this some room to the downside-
Comparing performance between various investments-
I realized I had not thought to consider a low volatility fund as a candidate for a portion of a portfolio- When seeking to be on the winning side of momentum positions, one doesn't think about the tortoise back at the starting gate- I think that considering a low volatility investment is an ideal way to put a toe in the water-SPLV, VFLV as 2 to consider- just not yet.too earlt
....to be continued....
cdc.gov/covid19
President having a news conference- Feels that this virus will be well controlled....
Can't trust the futures this late at night- but all are down...
While the president tried to be reassuring, and a number of stocks are flying higher- ZM, TDOC, MRNA, This are essentially momentum trades that i cannot chase- I owned TDOC and got whipsawed and taken out , and MRNa WAS GTHE SPOUSE'S CHOICE LAST WEEK- AND GOT WHIPSAWED OUT ON IT-
nOT CHASING ANYTHING PRESENTLY- I expect this could become a very large impact - at least the fear element- on the global front as well as the US.
I still feel that holding a large cash position is prudent- Should someone be a buy and hold - Well, look at where your entry was -and if you have a net gain- why not l.ock that in? If your approach suggests you can wait for years- Brother, peace be with you.

[ira85]

Last week we discussed a rules based system for making buy and sell signals, switching between the S&P 500 and TLT. I found an interesting study of this kind of system. The study involved back testing various intervals for the moving averages and using leveraged or unlevered positions. The author expressed his opinion that the principal finding was that a system like this will generally beat buy and hold. But there is a good deal of variability in such a system, so it will never be perfect and trying to tweak the system to find the best parameters is folly. The system he was describing was based on taking a leveraged S&P 500 position when the price is above the 200 day SMA. And then switching to 100% Treasuries when the S&P 500 falls below the 200 day SMA. Very simple. You make the changes based on rules. The rules don't leave wiggle room for using one's "gut feeling" and damaging the system.

I like this. I want to put this into practice. Here's the article proactiveadvisormagazine.com/moving-averages-leverage-long-run/

I'm interested in setting up a system very much like the one in this article. Such a system could substantially reduce losses during bear markets and break even during bull markets with less volatility, i.e. smaller draw downs. It could help me avoid shooting myself in the foot sometimes.

I talked to a wealth manager last week about my desire to play an active role in the management of my funds, if I hire him. He was non-commital. I suspect he was concerned about the potential for conflict.

I'll see him again in 2 weeks. I'll send him this article so he'll have a better understanding of what I want to do. Following such a system should actually reduce conflict. And it could reduce the chance that I blame him for poor results, as long as we both follow the rules. I'll let you know how this works out but it will be at least a couple of weeks. Oh, today is Wednesday, February 26. The Dow was down about 1900 points on Monday & Tuesday. Closed both days above the 200 day SMA. And closed above it today. No sell signal so far. -ira

[sd]

Another down day- Indexes losing over -4%, Dow closes down -$1,190 While it sounds dramatic- it's a -10% overall decline for the major indexes.
I did some limited buying today- Had a couple of limit orders fill and purchased a starting position in VFMV. - Vanguard minimum volatility-
As I view the charts, I had a couple of limit orders that I lowered- Expecting to see lower prices and a gap down tomorrow-
This will be too many extreme consecutive down moves-I expect tomorrow will be a gap down open with a push lower, but likewly a good place to start picking up some value at -15 to -20% .
TLT position gained today- Talk is about the FED being willing to cut rates-but with the impact of this virus potentially disrupting work, school, and the economy- that is the FEAR....
I'm looking at the low base periods in longer term charts -2019 - to set Limit Buys- but I'm not going all in -
I feel that the tech sector will get a new reduction in valuation.

[sd]

"I like this. I want to put this into practice. Here's the article proactiveadvisormagazine.com/moving-averages-leverage-long-run/"

I think that the long term test results support the lower volatility of using a systematic approach- but even though the Max drawdown of 46-49%is better than the buy and hold--86% but is not acceptable for someone our age- This type of approach is interesting- but capital preservation is a priority once you've retired- but you still need to gain income- A -48% drawdown of your present assets would not be prudent. I'm not surprised that your wealth adviser did not embrace your enthusiasm for this approach- It may be more important to consider that you do not need to seek substantial growth- but just need to position yourself for the income that you may need for the next decades-
I would still be an advocate of taking a portion of your assets and doing some self-management- but then allocate some of the assets to be managed by your wealth adviser in an appropriate strategy for your position.
If you have a stockcharts account- you can manually backtest the approach you might be interested in- Print out a 1 year chart for each one year period--Go back the 20 years and note the periods that make a crossover- and compare those transition periods- This type of exercise - going back 20 years- would allow you to compare the periods of transition- and some of these will not be clear cut- but could whipsaw- Worth doing- I would assume- -
EDit-add-
While the approach putting the investor into the more conservative TLT as a defensive move- is prudent- vs holding all long positions- I would suggest backtesting the crossovers based on the article over the past market declines for at least the last 3 years- As the criteria suggests, the drawdowns are still relatively high for all of the criteria-Interesting that reacting to short term dips- the 10 day ma as a signal- underperforms -the longer term signal periods- likely due to the numerous whipsaws as that trails so close to price.As the authors point out- similar results are not guaranteed to be replicated in the future- and a lot depends on the willingness to stay with the approach- That caveat reflects the human nature reaction to abandoning an approach in the face of mounting losses. Consider the amount of pullback from the highs for price to close below the chosen moving average- Would represent a decline from the portfolio high- and depending on the chosen ma- would see a -5 to a -30% decline-before going into the alternative asset-
Conversely , vs an All in one or the Other- A diversified portfolio approach that is rebalanced periodically- weekly, monthly, semiannually- could be configured around the basic premise of adjusting the portfolio weightings as conditions warrant.
An easy initial way to compare performance between different positions is by using the PERF chart feature- At stockcharts- change the time frame by clicking on the bottom bar/box- Note that it's not always as simple as a one or the other situation- As illustrated in the attached screenshot- a 45 day lookback between Spy and TLT illustrates the swing in momentum for both positions moving up and down - which would have resulted in a series of mixed signals- in a one -or the other decision. and make one react- Over a relatively short period of time - both positions were inclining - so, by shifting % of allocations may be worth a consideration- With this sharp a decline, I simply had reacted into a large cash position- but did buy the falling knife into Tech mid week. Had a lot of orders waiting to fill lower which I cancelled due to larger unknown-and a personal bout w the flu-
With a new fatality in the US, I would expect Friday's rally attempt will not see the bottom- but it's a good place to start to add some value positions - but leave some cash free for a deeper decline should this thing spread wider in the US- As it is expected to likely do....
i.imgur.com/DSYKs3k.png


ion

[sd]

After a bout with the flu- let's you realize how susceptible you are to those things out of your control- Similarly trying to judge the market reaction- and then to position yourself to take advantage of it- A very large unknown as to what will yet transpire...We are all vulnerable to external occurrences.
As mentioned in the prior post- capitol preservation is perhaps more important than seeking substantial capital gain- particularly in a retirement account - and particularly at our age-
While I'm still working full time (presently) , My spouse is determined that I will be retired this year- boat paid off- and no debts. And - Why Not? I've always worked, been engaged with problem solving, and perhaps not prepared to jump into the unstructured freedom of retirement.
Since We started saving for retirement relatively late in life, we didn't accumulate the $Million dollar retirement account- All the more important to protect the modest nest egg we have, as it (Hopefully) may have to provide us income for decades yet to come- health willing. We live modestly, and could even survive on just SS .....
While I have taken management of a large % of those assets- and am in the process of rolling out present funds still in the company IRA into my personal Vanguard IRA brokerage-I had previously allocated 1/3 a few years ago to a local wealth adviser-He has us allocated into a conservative strategy, my spouse's slightly more growth oriented- and only time will tell- how well does the diversified account hold up during declines? That also included a portion into a fixed hybrid Annuity-
Seeking growth is all fine when the bull is running- and it's easy to forget that declines of 10-20% are relatively common during almost any 3 year period. An alternative to a timing approach is an investment allocation that is designed to Risk less, lose less in bad times, still provide income potential - and offer upside in good times.
- this is likely what the wealth adviser would be putting you in -Conservative and stable investments that have a long term history of giving back stable returns-
A professional adviser helps to put your personal situation into perspective- without the emotional attachment you or I may hold - and can give guidance on how to stay the course of a long term approach to retirement. Including what to expect as to the income potential and the volatility - and is the portfolio actively managed and rebalanced as needed?
There are other options to building a diversified income producing account with some reduction in downside volatility- The dividend portfolio in this SA article seems well researched and well diversifed- It could function as all-or just a portion of one's portfolio- but I'm totally uninformed with building a conservative portfolio- And, I would not want to rely on one or two positive articles that seem well grounded to put one's life's assets all in....I would still want to consider ways to be diversified-

An interesting article on setting up a very diversified dividend producing portfolio on SA with reduced historical downside-in value.
seekingalpha.com/article/4327781-retirement-how-to-protect-and-make-your-investments-recession-resistant?ifp=0&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=retirement-how-to-protect-and-make-your-investments-recession-resistant&utm_campaign=nl-investing-income&utm_content=link-0

After reading this article- and a few other dividend DGI portfolio articles over the past years- I realize there is much I do not understand- and my focus had remained growth and momentum- Now that I'm rolling more assets under my control, I realize that this is simply additional personal pressure to achieve performance-or to lose less, and I'm going to explore handing off some of that responsibility to a Vanguard adviser- That will still give me ample ways to keep my toes in the water- with both Roth accounts, a small trading account, and potentially managing some of the IRA-
I have to ask myself- How much of my time can I allocate to trying to stay on top of the market gyrations? Is this what I would want to HAVE to be focused on daily? I don't think that should be the goal of one's retirement- micro managing retirement dollars - While finding market momentum and timing stimulating- it would also be so with a smaller amount at Risk.
And- then I would likely also not be concerned about whether the market was going to lose 20% or -30% in the years ahead...
Conversely- something as simple as a Target Date Fund - all-in one wrapper- may be the simplest approach investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/target-retirement/#/

[sd]

Big oversold rally today- The harsh decline showed the fear in the market- and today's rally should be suspect- we will see if we actually can continue to hold our ground from here- but clearly there is a lot yet to be assessed by the market- In the Past, Market declines are not 1 week events, are comprised of reaction rallies that end up losing steam, and deeper lows then follow.
I tightened the TLT stop to $153- will likely sell tomorrow. Keeping the majority of the account in cash, but making a few trades-
KWEB- Chinese internet has been pushed down for a month, put in a blue higher bar today- has higher lows- going long- stop $47
ARKG- Similarly, it's allabout the chart- Today put in a higher move off a prior 3 x decline base swing since 2020- Didn't sell-off excessively- and each 1st stoch cross/blue after red this past year should have been bought-
ZM moving higher-
TDOC still under the entry
CVS would also seem to be a decent entry at this level- See if it fills @ $60 level, although closed higher.

My opinion/Fear is that the markets will Not return to All normal this year-Nor reach the prior excessive highs- This rally is an opportunity for people to reevaluate their Risk comfort level- and to take steps to reduce that Risk-if concerned-If Not, Simply Assume the Bull continues despite the election fear, the virus impact, and Good Luck- For those that had not considered stops- this may be that opportunity to put some in place.
I could well be mistaken, but prior to this event we were clearly extended in trend, PE valuations, and investor optimism. Should there be some global impact to this virus? factory slow downs, missed work, concerned consumers, perhaps those items could become a potential drag on the GDP- and that pesky unknown of an election year- where Trump will continue to try to get the Fed to backstop the markets-
In the interim, short term momentum swing trades follow the markets direction with trailing stops . Toe in the waters

[ira85]

ira (me) has been considering methods to reduce drawdowns during a bear market. He passed along information about a timing system to signal when to shift assets from stocks to treasuries and back to stocks based on objective signals supported by back testing. Back testing showed buy and hold was subject to max drawdown of up to 86% while the switching system experienced 46 to 49% draw-downs over the same time period, October 1928 to October 2015.

SD commented “the long term test results support the lower volatility of using a systematic approach- but even though the Max drawdown of 46-49%is better than the buy and hold--86% but is not acceptable for someone our age.

I was a bit surprised by this statement. After reading it several times I think I see the difference in our opinions. I am looking at the magnitude of the benefit derived by using the switch system and SD is looking at how big the drawdowns still are when using the system.
One observation, the back testing went back to 1928, so the first few years of the Great Depression are in there. From a high of 381.17 September 3, 1929 the Dow Jones fell to 41.22 the closing price on July 8, 1932. So this back testing includes drawdowns bigger than we've experienced in or lifetimes.

The max drawdown gives us those outlier numbers. It might be more realistic to look at annual volatility, which presumably would give an average for each year and those depression era numbers would be tempered by averaging. The average volatility of buying and holding the S&P 500 is 18.9%. The average volatility for using a variety of moving average days is about 12%. The switch system has about 63% of the volatility of buy and hold.


We've all heard that stock market retail customers can't beat the market indices. But it turns out professionals can't beat the indices either. So mutual fund managers can't beat the indexes. That is what fueled the growth of ETF's like SPY. If you can't beat em, at least duplicate em.

So if SD is advising the magnitude of this system's ability to reduce drawdowns is still too high, what to do? From his later posts I thing he's saying look at what can be done to preserve capital. That's job one. Maybe such a strategy would get soundly beaten by SPY most years. What's more important growth of capital or capital preservation?

SD doesn't know my retirement financial situation, but I think he's hit on something important for me. I'm lucky enough to have an old fashioned pension. It's a great comfort. I don't need my IRA to pay ordinary living expenses. My pension can do that. SD also offered this . . .
“I have to ask myself- How much of my time can I allocate to trying to stay on top of the market gyrations? Is this what I would want to HAVE to be focused on daily? I don't think that should be the goal of one's retirement- micro managing retirement dollars - While finding market momentum and timing stimulating- it would also be so with a smaller amount at Risk.”

I'm asking myself that question. To be an active manager of my investments and expect to do at least as well as my local pro, I'd have to spend a lot of time managing a portfolio, re-balancing, and staying on top of all the things that affect the markets, regulators, and economies. Maybe I ought to hire it out and spend my time doing something else. Well I see my local guy in 8 days. I'll let you know how it turns out. -ira

[sd]

As IRA pointed out:
SD doesn't know my retirement financial situation, but I think he's hit on something important for me. I'm lucky enough to have an old fashioned pension. It's a great comfort. I don't need my IRA to pay ordinary living expenses. My pension can do that. SD also offered this . . .
“I have to ask myself- How much of my time can I allocate to trying to stay on top of the market gyrations? Is this what I would want to HAVE to be focused on daily? I don't think that should be the goal of one's retirement- micro managing retirement dollars - While finding market momentum and timing stimulating- it would also be so with a smaller amount at Risk.”


Having a pension is a rare cushion today- fortunate if you have one-!
You do not need your IRA to pay for ordinary living expenses- Outstanding liberty!.
It then comes down to a matter of what one NEEDS to live in retirement comfortably- and what one's lifestyle choices would like to have available-
Realizing that in retirement one's expenses could easily increase if one expects to travel the world, sail the seas in 1st class accomodations, indulge in the pursuit of bucket-list goals....etc- But if one is more pragmatic, living within a budget in retirement much as one did during the working years helps to put the responsibility of one's financial oversight solely in one's lap.
The point about understanding volatility and how much is too excessive- Consider the sense of security that comes with knowing you have a specific reliable pension providing income month after month- Now, consider the impact if that pension was tied to a market gyration and could be reduced by 50% by a market decline- Suddenly, that Risk of decline has a huge impact on your net basis for equilibrium in planning your financial life and ability to support yourself.
In one's personal financial planning, they can also fund an individual pension- SS payments are generally considered safe- but threatened by future socialistic taxation. Self-funded annuities are available to individuals- but should be planned for at least 10 years prior to requiring them- These can be viewed carefully- but are vehicles for not losing one's principal, and seeing net guaranteed gains and disbursement totals. Relatively low return for that guarantee- but worth considering with a fiduciary adviser as Part of one's retirement nest egg.
Once the basic expenses are accounted for, one has to be prepared to fund for those frailities that come with age- Increased medical expenses and possibly long term care issues can quickly deplete a huge amount of uninsured assets- Understanding how such expenses can destroy one's life long savings in a relatively short period of time - while disturbing to consider- is a reality to be faced. All the more reason to reduce the nest egg base to market gyrations.

All of that said, If left on our own to make an assessment of our financial situation, we would likely underrate the potential Risks we will be facing in the years ahead, and could easily position ourselves in a manner that would cause irreparable damage to our financial accounts-
I think this Corona virus event has given me a wider perspective- How much of my time do I want to devote to this endeavor to try to position myself with market timing week in and week out? What is the value of my active vs passive participation? What about being able to relax and simply sleep soundly at night no matter which direction the market turns? Secure in a financial foundation that does not compel me to turn on CNBC?

What should be our priorities in these "Golden Years?" It is certainly not a goal to be a slave of what kept us so tethered to our jobs and daily routine. This should be a time to have the personal and financial freedom to do things we have not found the time or resources to do in our prior busy work lives. Starting to sound like an AARP commercial here -LOL!

I'm just putting things into perspective-

I think a good approach to investing is holding some diversification- I also think that applies to selecting an adviser- Perhaps consider not just a single adviser but a minimum of 2 to see whose approach holds up over the next few years- And finally- perhaps allow yourself a small net 5% or 10% to manage yourself- so you hold some direct skin in the game- but cannot damage your account overall if you invest in some losing positions . Since you have stayed mostly on the sidelines since the big rout in 2008- Now is not the time to jump into the fray!
I found it to be exciting when I managed a small $10,000.00 account - and just fun! . Perhaps more so when it was 100K- exciting- but less Fun- and now that I've started managing "real" money and over 200 k and representing a large chunk of a decade + of retirement savings- the responsibility to the account is substantial- Not an after hours only exercise-anymore.... and not "Fun" because it is one's life's savings at work- This is where handing off the responsibility reduces the personal performance stress- and it provides diversification .

I would interview at least 2 advisers- and -if their approaches were different- invest some with each- and compare performances over a couple of years-

I -personally have contact Vanguard personal adviser services- and have a follow up appointment- I may give them control of a portion of my rollover assets-
this will reduce the personal level of stress , and lead to higher % conservative allocations.

Edit 3-5-20
Another -1,000 pt drop on the Dow -Indexes lost -3%
This kind of market volatility- happens - Another whipsaw market move- Went back into the TLT today- Stocks again now negative on the year....
As i consider more conservative ways to position myself - other than holding a large % in cash- are the other bond funds available- Truly unknown territory to me as I have stayed away from the lackluster performance- There's always Utilities- perhaps Reits- and precious metals.
Where is the safety in stocks? Looking at the min volatility ETFs makes sense- holding some VFMV- but I was surprised to see the larger % loss if one held the Value ETFs- even compared to the SPY-
I would have expected that Growth would be dumped, and investors rushing to buy Value- And that would be the safe haven go-to - but the Perf chart demonstrates that Value would be the big loser in recent weeks.
Chart starts 2020:

i.imgur.com/Hf7Nd4M.png

[sd]

On Friday , I had a +9% gain on the TLT position- and when looking at it in the afternoon, the market rallied back and the gain rapidly declined- so I sold the position to lock in +4% or so. As I start to consider "conservative" investment ideas- I realize that I am also considering my own situation-
I've read a few SA articles on DGI- Dividend growth Investing- and a friend sent me a link to Dave Knapp- Daily Trade Alert- with his actual DGI portfolio documented - and -more importantly-
a series of "Lessons" for those interested-

dailytradealert.com/dave-van-knapps-dividend-growth-investing-lessons/

I still have some low orders for VFmv waiting to get filled on another big down day- I don't think the Friday rally can be seen as the bottom of this volatility- and the issue with the bond market is confusing- so do we fear recession? certainly there will be large economic repercussions. Knowing that I have neither the temperament or fortitude- or opportunity to try to position myself for a day trading approach, I'm perfectly content to sit this out on the sidelines- and preserve capital.
The indecision that this volatility brings also illustrates the lack of a comprehensive approach tailored to one's specific situation.
It is prudent to realize that the future is not going to deliver the same results as the past- and what asset allocation will both take advantage of market gains, while reducing the impact of a market decline?
The typical approach of reduced market exposure in stocks and higher exposure to bonds would seem to be particularly appropriate at this time.

[sd]

3.8.2020 Ben Carson was interviewed by George STeph... and he did not give a solid performance - regarding the Corono Virus- The Carson take-away was that if you feel you are personally at a higher risk- you should avoid high risk situations- rallies and the like- Very lame response- Later tonight I see the one doctor suggesting that those at Risk should not go on any cruises!
It would seem that the rational voices are suggesting that the US will see areas that will see widespread shutdowns- avoidance of large groups, schools closed- "work from home" scenarios-

Should this contagion ever develop to the degree such measures are taken in the US, the impact economically and - more importantly- politically would likely be huge- While that type of event seems to be remote- it is entirely a possibility! Will this be the next Black Swan event recorded in market history? Or a minor hiccup only?