SD-2020 TRADING WITH THE TIDE

[tiarra]

I am glad you guys are still here! This board and the one before it on MSN brings back a lot of memories! I am doing well.
Where I live in Georgia has very few cases and life is pretty much the same. If you need more social interaction, you can add me as a friend on FB. You too, IRA. It's funny, I have *known* ya'll since 2004, but don't know you at all really! www.facebook.com/iagapemr.j

[sd]

Hey Tiarra,
It's good to hear that things are pretty stable where you live! Definitely a lot of memories on this and the prior board- DG, & All the members were constructive in postings, and always helpful- Definitely a rarity today I suspect.
Ira is recently retired, and I'm just one step away.... and I made the decision years ago shortly after I 1st answered a Facebook invitation, that I simply didn't have enough free time to follow all that social networking - same with Linked in- DG's board filled that space-of contact with others with similar interests. Nowadays, it's just a place for me to occasionally post an idea or a chart of sorts as I go through different phases of involvement in the market- The writing process helps me sort things out in my own mind- at least at that moment.
If I wander onto some other board site- like Elite Trader- I can lose Days and weeks following different threads-
In the future, When i have more time on my hands, I'll migrate to some other board to get current information from those involved with the markets- I recall in the early days in Clear Station that there were a lot of people hyping and tossing trash- I suspect there is still plenty of that ......
Stay Safe, Hope you are making $$$ during this "historic" rally!

[sd]

Markets were in the red premarket this am but Closed Higher! Got home in time to catch the last 5 min of Fast Money-Grasso recommending SONO- and Adami SNAP over Facebook- I had already added this week to my SNAP position, and so I'm Pat for the time being- I see INO up over $35! I had traded it a few weeks ago in the $14 range! I have to say I'm glad (at least for this Close) that I didn't raise tight stops-
Each time the market is capable of recovery to bad news, it tends to make me believe that we can perhaps continue to move higher- Plus, a lot of cash sits on the sidelines from individual investors, seeing a market grinding higher without them and their cash not earning any return.
i HAD ONE POSITION STOP-OUT TODAY- Draft Kings- in the IB account- a small 25 share position with a realized loss of $152.00 . I had not bothered to adjust the position stop from the entry stop- I thought this gambling trade offered a potential for growth- but they had also issued additional shares- Not a major loss- and I will take that $1k and try on another spec trade once the monies clear (3 days) in IRA.
On the other side, the ARKW and SNAP positions gained $300 today- I'll see what the Friday close brings..account values- Is it too greedy to strive for a 1% gain/month- or a 12% gain for the year? That beats the historical average return for the "market" Or- Is that too aggressive ? My YTD return is about 5.5% , so I'm lagging that 1% monthly gain. However, the earlier gain was based on putting a lot more of the account value into the market- and seeking discounted prices.

I haven't looked at either of these recently- but ESG funds have performed very well- in the prior year and possibly into this year the IPO fund is doing very well this year -
ESG funds- became popular last year- social governance- and they likely will continue to attract investors in this environment. Just tossing that idea out there-

[sd]

Tough Day today! Todays'sell-off along with yesterday has pulled my account back to where I had recently reentered- and slightly in the RED- Snap position dropped -7% today- Painful- because the Snap position is net $29 profitable now and ARKW down to $177 profit- Paper loss of -$500 over 2 days in the IB account-
Similarly, Van account is at net $0.00 gain for the entries in the prior 2 weeks . The spread and increase of this Virus is not what was anticipated by most States during this reopening.

Fear is now back into the Recovery- and not optimism.

Will assess my positions over the weekend.

[ira85]

The market seems to be responding strictly on coronavirus news. We should remember the market went down big when the news looked threatening in March. Then the news softened and people got more optimistic and the market shot up to new highs. With a few days of bad news and big losses the market's prospects could look very dim. But it might take only one really positive scientific finding to stop the plunge. Maybe something like this alpaca article. At this point who knows. Maybe this can disable and neutrolize the virus.

"Alpacas could hold the key to neutrolising Covid-19 and help suppress any second wave of coronavirus and allow countries to safely lift lockdown, researchers have claimed.

Scientists from universities in Sweden and South Africa have used nanobodies from an alpaca immunised against coronavirus to fight the disease and prevent it “binding” or infecting a person.

The tiny antibody fragment, or nanobody, targets the “spikes” of the Covid-19 virus, which “directly interferes” with its ability to infect a host.

They said their research “potently neutralises the virus”, adding that because these nanobodies can be cheaply and easily reproduced they could provide a “potent and widely accessible antiviral agent.”

The nanobodies, roughly a tenth of the size of a normal antibody, are “far easier to clone, express and manipulate.” -ira

[sd]

Site is having issues- 2nd try to post-
I agree with you IRA- With the news all about the spread of this virus increasing- and some states rolling back openings- others -masks full time in public; this virus is not going away as thought in the summer as the Flu does.
I will be tightening stops this pm in prep for a continuation of the marketweakness.

[sd]

6-29 After the Close- and a new week is upon us- Markets All closed up - Dow up over 500 pts + 2.3 %, S&P up 1.47, and the Nas just 1.2% -
I did add to the GLD in the IB account as a bit of cash freed up- Still Holding SNAP- -But Cramer took it out of his Covid- must have list.....
Saw Cathy Woods- PM of ARKK funds on Fast money- She clearly feels that TSLA- a 10% position in ARKK will hands down outperform NKLA with it's hydrogen model at a much lower expense ratio- I think Ms Woods has her act together and understands the drivers in this market. She also mentioned that the Fund has traded around the TSLA position- and sells off portions that make the position over weighted.
I see that BA jumped higher today- performing test flights- So Optimism reigns that airplane travel will once again cause a demand for new planes- That certainly seems hard to believe in the present environment. After all, we are still in the 1st rounds of a Global Pandemic-
This is a new reality for each of us as individuals , as well as for our society at large- Time for everyone to "Mask Up" in public. As I am involved in the construction industry,
the local statistics are that 79% of the local county Covid cases are from the Hispanic population- and they comprise 90% of the work force, but only 14% of the local population. We try to reinforce the wearing of masks on the job site , as well as keeping separation where possible- The reality is that construction workers intersect throughout the day- and keeping a 6' separation is often not possible.
States like FLA and Texas that reopened early are now seeing a sharp rise in cases- and this restricts the economic recovery by closing bars and restaurants ......

The political landscape does not seem to be improving for President Trump who continues to shoot himself in the foot with ill advised tweets.... Has anyone advised him that there is an election coming up in a relative few months and he may want to consider becoming more of a Statesman than brawling it out on Twitter. Should the Democrats and social engineers take control of the senate and the Presidency, The markets will tank, and the corporations will exit the US and take their business over seas -again.
While I understand the legal challenge to the healthcare provison of Obamacare, I have only heard the President say that it will be replaced with something "better" but the Republicans have had years to define what that would be- and no one is forthcoming with specifics.
With the impact of this disease, and a moratorium on charging patients who have Covid- are we not already instituting socialized medicine for the population across the board?

[ira85]

Last week the market seemed to be showing some weakness. Breadth was weak as the leaders seemed to be accounting for most of the gains. It looked like we might be ready for some profit taking. Then at the end of the weak the sell off. It looks like things are going bad. Then to my surprise the DJIA was up 500 points this morning. Why do I keep reacting with surprise? Selling seems to always be brief. The buyers quickly take over and the market goes up. This seems like the bull market from last year. It's like nothing has changed. The bull market may seem old, tired, weak, etc. but it just keeps on truckin.

The Hispanic population data for your area was interesting.

Regarding the prospects for the coming election, 6 months ago I'd have bet on a Trump re-election. His fans seemed to be everywhere I went and they seemed to love the guy. It seemed he was 10 feet tall. But it seems he's slipping. It seemed like he didn't do well in the first go round with the virus management. Ditto for his handling of the Floyd death and the protests that followed. It seems the criticism by retired General James Mattis really hit home.

Up to now it was amazing how criticism seemed to bounce off of him. It seems people haven't given him much recognition for how effectively he's managed criticism. People have been giving him advice to give up late night Twitter rants for the past 3 years. But those rants have seemed to build a bond between him and his supporters. He gave them what they wanted to hear and they loved him. His style of managing the press, his critics, his underlings, and his political base has been stunningly effective in terms of handling such a high volume of criticism. All other politicians get caught with one prostitute or girlfriend and Bam they're toast. Not Donald. Sex scandal, no problem. Up to now he's been a genius at slipping away from criticism, A Teflon Don. Maybe he'll be like this market. Just when it seems he's loosing strength, Boom, he'll get a boost and keep going. -ira

[sd]

I agree that President Trump has a difficult road ahead as we go into the Election - The virus' damage to our economic growth cannot be overstated-
We were on a very solid path of economic growth and "Full employment" coming into 2020- thanks to the President's policies and pro-business approach to regulation reform.
In both my lifetime and I expect yours, we have never seen such a dramatic impact affecting the entire country- Except -perhaps- the social unrest we had in the late 60's due to the Vietnam War consuming and dividing America -
As I listen to Dr Gottlieb on CNBC this evening- the warnings are very DIRE- US citizens are now banned to enter other countries because of the high infection rate here.
The Spread of this Virus is continuing- and was clearly underestimated as to it's ability to survive -even in summer time conditions- seemingly not slowing it down.
Gottlieb believes this infection will spread to the degree that we eventually develop "Herd Immunity" - unfortunately, Those most susceptible will succumb, others that survive will develop anti-bodies and some immunity-
As we go into the midst of summer, and -IF- the virus continues as feared, , businesses are forced to Close again, Schools are delayed, and possibly remain closed- The impact on families will be huge- if we do not return to our jobs and 'normal' life ....... and a cause for further social unrest. How we come out of this, seems very much to be up in the air.
The impact on individuals psychologically will likely be disruptive- Even in the extent that they may take high Risks in investing, or recoil and retrench and become defensive-

Personally, I alternate between the Fear and Greed - with Funds that I put at Risk desiring a gain- and then not trusting the volatility, holding a larger % in cash,.

Presently, I am holding a 30% +/- long position - and the Risk to Reward does not seem to favor being Long . This is the Crux of the issue with trying to Time the markets highs and lows-
I'm up approx 2% over the prior 2 week investment period- but the Downside Risk is likely much higher. I cannot envision this present market surge to be maintained- because the reality of what may lie ahead holds little optimism. That is my Fear speculation prompting me to react to protect my investing dollars- Since most of my allocations are in the ARKK family of funds, I am relying on their investing prowess to see this through- Not reacting to the negative short term pullbacks has been the right course of action- except for that nasty decline in March

[ira85]

SD your comments about the President are very well said. And I do believe he would have faced an easy re-election if not for the virus. But as the prospect for extreme consequences grows management of the virus will be a negative for the President. I've heard Dr. Gottlieb before and I've been impressed. He's really studied this disease and has a very good grasp of the issues. My understanding of herd immunity suggests a couple of other issues. Our knowledge of the pathogen for this virus is quite incomplete. We don't have much of an idea as to how surviving this virus affects future immunity. With some viruses one exposure leads to lifelong immunity. With others immunity may be developed in only a portion of the population leaving some vulnerable to a second illness, though it's usually less severe. The biggest problem with herd immunity is the vast number of people who have to be exposed to the virus to develop sufficient immunity in the herd to stop the spread of the virus. If 80% of the US population (320 million) has to be virus positive to stop the spread and the virus kills 3% of those infected, then the virus will kill about 9,600,000. (The 80% number is a rough estimate. 90% might also be realistic. The real number is unknown at this time.) The virus will also cause some infected persons to be gravely ill and requiring intensive care to survive. Having the hospital systems in the country operating at breakneck speed, expense, and stress would take a toll on our healthcare system.

I know a guy who has said from the beginning this virus is not that severe. Let's just let it run it's course and be done with it. If herd immunity is where we're headed, then lets just go ahead and do it. It's the most expedient way to stop the disease and get back to normal. True enough, this coronavirus is not very deadly. Ebola has a mortality rate of 50% or more. At a 2 or 3% mortality coronavirus is not a highly deadly virus. But developing herd immunity might kill 10 million in the US. Working around very ill virus positive patients everyday would take a serious toll on our healthcare workers. As they go to work in hospitals everyday, how would they feel knowing that letting the disease run it's course was a conscious decision of our leaders and puts their lives at risk?

And what about the prospects for developing an effective vaccine. I see 12 to 18 months estimates. But what if it turns out to be more difficult than expected. What if 5 years from now there is no vaccine? How long have experts been working on an HIV vaccine? At least 30 years and counting. I may be too pessimistic. It may be that a safe and effective vaccine will be available to all who need it in less than a year. It could happen. Using the old advice, hope for the best but plan for the worst, we need to consider ways to slow the spread of the virus and flatten the curve.

There is one herd immunity scenario I don't think anyone has considered. What if our legislative/executive system adopted a policy of developing herd immunity ASAP. Let's just get it over with. In that scenario people who take no precautions to protect themselves are the ones helping the country to meet the herd immunity goal of 80 or 90% positive exposure. The ones wearing masks, washing their hands frequently, maintaining social distancing, etc. Those folks would be undermining the herd immunity goal. By working to stay negative they could jeopardize the national goal. If not enough people get exposed and test positive we fail to develop herd immunity. That's quite a twist.

At this point I don't see how we can make a goal of developing herd immunity as quickly as possible. So it seems likely we'll struggle with this virus until we have a good vaccine. And no one knows how long that might be, but years rather than months seems possible.

It seems the markets have dealt with the virus issues as if they were business/economic issues. So when the Fed steps in and offers more help, the market reacts as if all is well. I suspect but have no way of knowing, that the big guns on the street don't have algorithms that cover the issues the coronavirus presents. Some day the market may start to realize no amount of Fed stimulation will solve these problems. I hope I can go short the day before that happens. -ira

[sd]

Thorough summary Ira.
I also believe that the political shift will favor the democratic party , and that will lead to a greater push for social give-a-ways needing to be funded by higher taxes with corporations and business the target group- And the very rich of course-
Before planning to time going short- you may want to consider some of the ESG funds- Long-
etfdb.com/

www.etf.com
Futures mildly Red this premarket-

After hours- The Nas closed up about 1%- but the various ARK funds made larger gains - with ARKW breaking out and up 3.5%- ARKK up + 3% for a new high as well. ARKF +2.75 ,
The IB account is overweight with 100 shares of ARKW, and at a new account high- Even in the Vanguard account, with only .25% of the account in play in growth, within 1% of the prior high-
With that relative isolated trading/investing success noted, there are many that have been taken to the financial cleaners during this pandemic.
Once i think of the difficulty my daughters are struggling with in their small businesses, I have to take the larger view that we only succeed when we all succeed- As a people- , as a Country.
We will get to the other side of this pandemic-Albeit, with casualties along the way- and Likely become a better Country on the other side ......
At the same time, there is a push for social justice, that is seeing reactions similar to the 1960's in areas of the country- Over reactions undoubtedly are seen initially- as the Pendulum swings to both sides in extremes- but perhaps there is a middle ground of consent....

Beyond this time and temporary chaos, a steady focus on the future as we want to see it is critical to America- What are our goals for We the people? It is easy to see how a vocal minority can undermine that which we take for granted- Civil protest is everyone's right in this Country- Civil anarchy or violence cannot be condoned.

Ultimately, i think of my 2 daughters trying to sustain their small business during this Pandemic- Will they survive as a business? Can they last through this depression of no revenue?
What will they ultimately have to do? Bankruptcy? or push through and try to survive?

When it gets back to Family, it is up close and personal- No middle ground there- I will be supporting the candidate that best insures the survival of the small business community-

[sd]

Futures up - despite the continuing rollbacks in parts of the country where the virus is spreading. Jobs report- may cause the markets to rally further- or to sell off.
Caught the market late pm - indexes all up- Jobs report a winner- Put a good portion of the Van cash position into play-ADDED:
100 VGT, 100 VPU, 400 VXUS, 50 VOOG leaves 46k in cash. The ARK Funds all performing well- Account value has managed to get to a new high -but not holding my breath as it can easily drop 5% on any bit of market fear- With today's positive action and most positions showing gaps higher- I'll likely bring stops up to protect some of the gains over the past few weeks.
With the markets closed Friday , and a work day off- Gone Fishin! Happy 4th and theres a lot to be thankful for!


MASK-UP AMERICA - LET'S GET RID OF THIS VIRUS!

[ira85]

Hey SD, regarding ESG funds, I've always been opposed to that type of fund. It seems to me that investments should be made based on the investment merits of the company, i.e. profitability, growth, superior technology, etc. I'd rather invest in a company that has made a better mouse trap. I don't think the company's policy on social issues should be a factor in my purchase decision. I should be focused on how well their mouse trap works. For years I held stock in Altria (MO), tobacco company, big dividend payer. I hate tobacco. I think it's a health menace. But if it's a well run company and able to keep paying 9% dividends, I'll buy it. The problem is what do you do if it's doing great financially but they violate one of their social responsibilities? Then you might feel compelled to sell it, even though it's performing well and meeting your financial goals. I think it poses the risk of us getting confused about our priorities. I say let me focus on it's investment merits and let civil rights enforcers, environmental regulators, law enforcement, advocates of various types . . . let them address the social issues. That's what they are there for. Smoking has been allowed since forever. People have a right to do it. So in a free society that is one way people practice their freedom. No matter how stupid I think it is. With Alria I could buy stock, then march in a health promotion demonstration.

Spent time with family over the weekend. Didn't see much financial news. I keep reminding myself the market is forward looking. Just because things seem to be going from bad to worse doesn't mean the market can't go up. Starting a new quarter. Comparisons with the same quarter last year are going to be ugly. It's also the seasonally unfavorable months, with growing uncertainty about the election just 4 months away. Seems like additional drag on the market. Plus the quarter just ended had such a big run, isn't it time for some profit taking?

I just realized I'm doing it right now, i.e. confusing my objectives. A couple of days ago I wrote at some length about herd immunity. That subject has nothing to do with why I'm on this site. I'm trying to learn about investing and managing a portfolio. I would be better served by using my time on investing and leave epidemiology to the public health experts. It's an easy mistake for me to make. As you know I retired a few months ago. My last job description was Senior Clinical Scientist Officer. I was an officer in the U.S. Public Health Service. But I am retired now and any opinions I have on health matters are strictly my own and I do not represent any government agency. I have nothing but the highest respect for the good men and women of the Public Health Service. I spent the past 20 years working side by side with them. I believe I read that the first Public Health Service officers to deploy on the COVID-19 response deployed February 15. They didn't hesitate and have been working on this from the beginning. Of the approximately 6,100 Public Health Service officers more than 4,500 have deployed during the COVID-19 pandemic in support of our worldwide efforts. Booyah Public Health Service!! -ira

[sd]

Hey IRA,
Credit to those public Health persons - and doctors, nurses and researchers fighting to get rid of this Disease.
While the point you make about how investing "should" be based on the merits of the individual companies etc- and the individuals choice to make that selection - as a momentum follower,
I try to capture growth -and - sorry to say, I often do not give much evaluation into the merits of a company.
I mentioned the ESG funds as a few articles I read showed they did very well last year, and in today's socially responsible movement, I expect they will do equally well through 2020.
Pleasantly surprised to see the markets ability to climb that wall of worry! The ARK fund groups ranged from a low today of ARKG +2.89% with ARKK leading the others - Up +4.62%

As You Noted :I keep reminding myself the market is forward looking. Just because things seem to be going from bad to worse doesn't mean the market can't go up. Starting a new quarter. Comparisons with the same quarter last year are going to be ugly. It's also the seasonally unfavorable months, with growing uncertainty about the election just 4 months away. Seems like additional drag on the market. Plus the quarter just ended had such a big run, isn't it time for some profit taking?
I dwell on that some- Did not get to tighten stops as I had intended over the weekend- Busy enjoying Family time . As I had just added more market exposure- Greed- call it what it is- It's past time to protect the net gains- up about 15k YTD or a 7% return- and somewhat lucky there as I was down 8k at one time. but I'll settle for trailing stops in what is undoubtedly one of the biggest market rally's in history. And , saving my bacon in the process.
When will the music stop? Anybody's guess- just going with the charts...
i SEE THIS pm: Emerging Markets- EEM, KWEB - are breaking out higher- Valuations there are much better than in the US as I understand it- In my active company IRA, I divide my contributions between the growth- funds and new economy funds- that are under the American Funds umbrella. When the markets are trending, it doesn't pay to fight the Tide, No matter how overvalued things are relative to the past commonly accepted ratios-
in trying to position for momentum- The ARK Fund group is presently leading the charge- An example would be why choosing a fund vs an individual stock- In the IB Account,
I had taken a 100 share position in SNAP a few weeks ago-$2239 and a 100 share position in ARKW $8,100.00 - While the initial investment was a 1:4 ratio, The ARKW fund has returned
$1,234 compared to Snaps $132.00- Undoubtedly, the ARKW fund's return is based on the outperformance of a few of it's holdings- I prefer to spread the Risk with funds holding 20 to 50 stocks in focused sectors, vs betting on a few individual stocks-
As well as these may do when they are in the market's favor, they can easily sell off hard in a decline -as do most outperformers.
I will be tightening stops tonight - with a bit of wiggle room- but both accounts are now into New High territory- and I will hope to preserve some of these recent gains.
I implemented stops limits in all positions- Since most prices had gapped up higher today, I took a stop price at the approx 5 ema , and gave it a limit 1-2% below the stop price-
This will work in a normal market- but it protects one in the event of a Flash Crash activating a stop and getting a ridiculously Low fill .
Since we just had a market wide gap move higher- it is likely going to be unsustainable - so smart money would tighten stops again after tomorrow- or sell into any higher move-
Since I cannot watch markets intraday, i will rely on the stops to do their job and preserve a good portion of the recent gains.

[sd]

7-7-20 Futures in the Red, Stops in place
Day ended with the indexes down slightly- As I had updated my stops last night, i noticed my SNAP position has been floundering in a sideways range for the past week, and I decided I would sell it at the open and be able to put the cash to work elsewheres. AHH, It sold at the open and then gapped up to close up + 7%.
I did manage to net a $164 gain on the 100 shares- Snap in the IB account, with a small GLD position now with a stop at my entry $165. The remaining position is 100 ARKW @ $81.00 with a net $1,200.00 gain over the past 3 weeks or so- Having more buying power in the Vanguard account, I had put the majority of the Roth into the various ARK funds,- I think 3-4 weeks ago-
including another lot in ARKW- The ARKK outperformed- with ARKF, ARKQ, ARKG all positions. and essentially netted a nice 5K gain during this short period - approx a net 10% gain for the
amount of assets put at risk at the time. ($49K) Last week I added more in the Van IRA- putting a larger % of the net port at Risk-
With the recent price action gapping up, and seeming to be extended- It feels like we are over due for a pullback- I had put Stop- with Limits in place , but tonight I decided I would tighten those stops more - some as Close as today's low price- This is an aggressive stop move designed to capture what appears to be an unusual push higher that I think will retrace and see price lower. Reversion to the Mean and all that- As IRA had posted- "Isn't it time to lock in some profits?"
Seasonality may not be a factor much- but the market momentum higher appears to be very optimistic - in spite of the undeniable spread of this infection- across numerous States in the South.
We had another confirmed Covid case on the jobsite this week in the Mason crew- and that same crew had 4 diagnosed positive on a nearby job site- Work continues with everyone wearing masks and hoping for the best- yet the reality is that this disease does not seem to be thwarted by the summer heat, and continues to spread- Fortunately- not as pervasively as in other communities that did not restrict their reopenings as suggested- Who are now seeing the disease expanding widely-
My mindset is that as the tone of the market shifts from Optimism to reality, my positions will likely stop out , as the recent momentum up gaps likely will falter back... and I will largely retreat to the sidelines, sit and evaluate- I would hope to repurchase the ARK Funds at pullback prices- Very aggressive stops in place either at today's lows or the 5 ema are designed to capture as much of the recent gains as possible- yet leave the door open for the potential for prices to still go a step higher- Greed says to lock in the gains, and past history knows how quickly a profit can evaporate- The momentum moves this week suggest they are a bit excessive- Will see if that assessment has any merit.