Week 52A or Week 1 - Friday Jan 3 2020

[realdeal]

(click to enlarge)


IRA takes the lead with a 2.54% gain. In second Blygh with -0.17% and in third Spiderman -0.63



I'm seriously contemplating not doing this anymore but I will finish out the week/year.

[sd]

I totally get it RD-and respect that decision! One's Time is valuable & better spent where it matters-On Boards that have active engagement and active exchange of ideas-

Since DG got ill, then passed, and Bankedout crashed and burned..things got quiet... Amy .. and then Blygh- -.... I have to appreciate the small forum that DG initiated.
Respectful and insightful, thoughtful exchanges of different ideas.... that eventually became almost silent with their passing/moving on....
I think the members that remain continued out of respect for what it once was......

- like the Old Horse returning to the Barn, I continue here out of years of habit; This board Has kept me looking at the Race and stock market during the week when occupied elsewheres .... The Strategies thread is self serving as it gives me a place to put thoughts into words-and hold myself accountable.
I will continue to periodically muse in the strategies thread- because it's "Home".
What say you Spiderman and Ira? Time to put the Old Dog down?

The Charts: stockcharts.com/public/1675108 Happy New Year All and a prosperous 2020!

[realdeal]

We have a lead change realdeal jumps in front with a 2.40% gain. Blygh is in second still and has turned green 0.16% and in third Spiderman -0.82% in fourth IRA -1.53% and in last stopped out SD -4.58%

[realdeal]

The S&P 500 tore 29% higher this year, its best performance since 2013.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped 35% to notch its best gain since 2013.
The 30-stock Dow index soared 22%, its strongest yearly performance since 2017.

Gold prices end 2019 at 14-week high and notch strongest year since 2010.

Oil logs biggest yearly gain since 2016.

Default horses year end results:

Spiderman takes the crown with a nice 33.09% gain with EXAS


Blygh who changed over to BRK.B as of 3/3/2019 comes in second with a 10.15% gain.

SD with CME finished in third with a 7.10% gain.

realdeal who changed over from long GLD to short GLD on 9/10/2019 -1.17%

IRA with VIXY comes in last place with -67.13%

[realdeal]

The two stocks that contributed the most to 2019’s total stock-market returns also hold that position for the entire decade.
While it’s fun to look at how the overall composition of the top 10 contributors has changed — with a noticeable shift from the energy sector to finance, for example —

it’s perhaps more interesting to note the enduring heft of Apple Inc. AAPL, and Microsoft Corp. MSFT for investors, as the chart shows.

www.markethingych.com/story/these-2-stocks-dominated-sp-500-returns-in-2019-and-the-decade-2019-12-31


I'm adding the last two days of 2019, the winner of this week yet to be determined.

SD absolutely dominated with his YTD 79.59% gain which is number one and the same goes for wins at 14

realdeal comes in second with a 63.80% YTD gain with 8 wins for the year which ranks him 4th overall in the win category

Spiderman comes in third with a 42.39% YTD gain with 10 wins for the year which ranks him 3rd overall in the win category

IRA comes in fourth with a 4.20% YTD gain with 11 wins for the year which ranks him 2nd overall in the win category.

Blygh comes in fifth with a -0.34% YTD with 7 wins for the year which ranks him 5th overall in the win category.


I wish I had done as well in my actual trading LOL! Thanks RD!

[ira85]

SD asked, "What say you Spiderman and Ira? Time to put the Old Dog down?"

I hadn't considered this issue at all before reading SD's comments. But I get it. In fact, when I read SD's comments about AAPL and his question as to how would each of us have traded AAPL, I thought most likely none of us will respond. I've thought before about how much time and effort SD puts into this board, and how little response it generates. I've wondered at how he stays motivated when his writing generates so little follow-up discussion. And I'll acknowledge I am guilty of contributing very little. I like to read what SD writes, but most of the time I add no comments. I suppose there is a critical mass issue at which those participating get too little return for their effort, or they have more rewarding uses for their time, and the board could die from lack of participation.

But instead of just pulling the plug, maybe we can come up with a strategy to assess the value of the board and whether its worth continuing. Below are some suggested activities. There might be other suggestions as well.

1. Declining number of participants and number of active participants. The number of participants has fallen, but as I remember it, the amount of discussion has decreased also. I recall it was fairly common for DG, Blygh, or Bankedout to make some observation about a stock or market issue and SD would respond with detailed comments. And then someone else would comment. That level of participation has certainly fallen. I think the lack of participation jeapardizes the viability of the board. If RD or SD were to decide today this isn't a worthwhile use of their time, I think we'd be done.

Suggestions: If the board is to survive I think it will need some new participants. And we may need a more explicit purpose statement for the board. We might state the purpose of the board and how the participants benefit from contributing their observations and comments. We might indicate that participating in discussions is expected of all participants.

If our board is of value, surely we could attract a new participant every once in a while. When I joined I thought I would benefit by learning at the feet of the masters. Seriously!! Those early participants were very knowledgeable. I looked forward each week to seeing what comments they had to offer. SD has continued to write very often and in great depth. He has a staggering wealth of knowledge about trading systems and different metrics. But he's just one guy. And no matter how brilliant his writing, he alone can't solve the issue of too few members being silent.

Here's an example of what can happen with and without group discussion. I've writen a little from time to time, but I should do more. For example, my default pick in the horse race is VIXY, short. But I never explained that pick. I should have done more. For example, I could have written about how the VIXY ETF suffers from chronic contango. The value of the volatility futures is almost always higher than the spot price. The VIXY etf almost always declines in value over time do to this issue. If I understand the issue correctly, shorting VIXY is like shooting fish in a barrel. Ideally, someone who understands this issue better than me would follow-up with a comment that further enhances everyone's understanding.

In this example everyone benefits from discussing the VIXY issues. But by failing to comment on this issue no one benefited and my pick might seem lazy, just goin' with the flow.

Summary: We need some new participants. We need participants to contribute more, offer more observations, comments, and share interesting things they've learned. If we don't make any progress in the next year, we could face the fact that what we're doin aint workin. SD could start a pod cast and become an internet star by putting his energies to more productive use.

We might consider a goal of adding a few new participants in the next year and tracking the participation with the intent of encouraging previously silent members to get more involved. - ira

[Spiderman]

I've been with this board almost from the beginning and really appreciate you taking over when DG passed.
I understand where you're coming from. Would you consider keeping this board open if we got new members?
If you feel it's time to call it a day on this board, then it's over. I respect your decision.
Happy New Year !!!

[sd]

Decent considerations Ira, well said, - and Spiderman - and RD- we all have a great deal of longevity at this board,. FWIW- I'll keep the Weekly Public Horse Race Charts updated for this coming year-and I could give a shot at the daily update- if Real Deal chooses not to- but I truly think it is doubtful as to the likelihood of engaging many new members- there's a lot of other web choices out there that are active 24/7. and likely bring their readers more value for their time. The board has some 50- 80 visitors daily, and they have been invited to join in... but there's so much else out there to choose than from our little in-house race ....
Personally, I don't have much time to visit other boards- might one day in the future......but I also don't bother with Face book or Linked in- Social hermit other than here.
I like what Ira illustrated- it would be more interesting to give a short paragraph -or so- on why we are making the selection of a horse for that week's race-
I appreciate Real Deal's having taken over on Blygh's behalf-.updating the daily tab, and Blygh taking over after DG-

I plan to hang out here for the next year- primarily in the Strategies thread- and to keep more focused on my trading/investing than I did in 2019-
Did buy some more stocks today- Wife wanted some CMG, AAPL, TSLA, and ? one more- I bought some TSLA, Lite, Small caps- getting close back to fully in after stopping out on a few positions last week. I'll be increasing my % exposure to stocks this year- perhaps up to 20%....the remainder in ETF's.
Happy 2020!

[sd]

SPIDERMAN's MSFT pick takes the lead into the new Decade!

[realdeal]

IRA and Spiderman,

SD has a public list on stockcharts.com which he has mentioned, for a few years now and unfortunately with all the eyeballs not able to muster up new members to this message board. I have sent out a link to a few traders I know very well via private message and or email, and again unfortunately no takers. The views sometimes insane are mostly from a mutual acquaintance of SD and me. This person at times emails us regarding the horse race with good questions. No matter how many times I have asked him he just won’t join, always an excuse and I recently told him this board is on a life support and he replied back completely ignoring that fact. You send an email asking questions yet can’t sign up and post the same thing. It’s a d**n shame really.

SD can delete and or edit this part of my post, if you two feel like your privacy has been violated not my intention. I don’t get something; you IRA I’m assuming now are a retired Psychiatrist, why not post about market psychology or something in that arena regarding stocks. It would be pretty interesting and have you tried to recruit anyone? Spiderman is a real estate broker; I don’t think you ever posted anything about the housing market, just a few sentences and you are on your way. I and I’m sure SD would love your thoughts on the sector individual stocks etc. Have you tried to recruit anyone?

Maybe going forward like SD is… you both can utilize the board in another way that will be beneficial to the both of you. The true essence of this board was never a fantasy stock race.

-rd

[sd]

Market heading Down at the open- Iranian military Soleimani killed by drone-
I'm leaving stops in place , not tightening them due to this event. Will consider a buy back into VDE ($83) -sold last week- but it's likely up +5% - Expect some very short term gain in the near term. Second level play- Buy some RSX - already trending higher. -Russia big energy producer. using limits- ($26.20) RSX was already a strong leader in global mkts.

[realdeal]

Quick look over of the daily chart it does not look bad RSX, I'm looking at XOM, probably gaps up maybe for a daytrade with some calls, have to see, its Friday and all too.

-rd

I was filled on both RSX,$25.11 @ open, and VDE-@ $83 limit- and both closed down lower . I underestimated the strength of the reaction- thought it would have more momentum and less fizzle. Will set stops below and see what occurs-

[sd]

2020- The HORSE RACE 1-3-2020 SPIDERMAN'S MSFT HORSE still holding a slight lead in the is
soft market!
The Charts: stockcharts.com/public/1675108

[ira85]

Default horses year end results: . . .

IRA with VIXY comes in last place with -67.13%

I think the minus sign should be a plus.

My default this year was VIXY short. I checked historical prices and VIXY opened at 40.02 on January 2, 2019, the first trading day. VIXY closed at 12.43 December 31, 2019. That's a loss of 27.59 a share, a big loss. I think the fact I held VIXY short is the difference. VIXY long was down more than 60%. But VIXY short would have a big gain. I think that's why there was a disconnect between the weekly race results (11 wins) versus the yearly default. The yearly default was calculated like it was a LONG instead of a SHORT. I appreciate the work you've done this year, stepping up and doing the day to day updates. It's kind of thankless work and it may seem that it goes unnoticed until someone comes along to complain. I want you to know that regardless of VIXY I appreciate your work. The board might well have died without you. -ira

[ira85]

RD wrote "you IRA I’m assuming now are a retired Psychiatrist, why not post about market psychology or something in that arena regarding stocks. It would be pretty interesting and have you tried to recruit anyone?"

I haven't thought much about writing anything regarding market psychology or related topics. That's at least partly because I have thought of myself here as a junior participant, more of a student than a teacher. But as the long experienced and knowledgeable members have moved on I realize we need to make some changes. I need to step up and participate more, try to make a contribution and help make the board more useful and attractive. Maybe I'll write something about emotional decision making and thinking errors.

As to recruiting, I talked some with a colleague about the board but he didn't show much interest. I'll call him back, send him a link, and ask if he has any impressions about the board and whether it might be useful to him.

Thanks RD. ira